Our security calculus
Dr Maleeha Lodhi

The tyranny of geography has imposed heavy burdens on Pakistan and its people. Location, a volatile neighbourhood and the headwinds of global geopolitics driven by great power interests have long placed the country at the centre of many regional storms.
Today the country faces a complex security environment with a multiplicity of traditional and non-traditional threats, hard and soft. There are many imposing challenges to navigate – internal, regional and global. Some are enduring in nature; others of more recent origin. Some are the unintended consequences of Pakistan’s own past policies. Others the result of wars imposed from outside. The country needs to summon the will, capacity and imagination to address all of them.
The world today is in strategic flux and uncertain transition. Diffusion of power and lack of global problem-solving mechanisms are making international affairs more unpredictable and unstable. Pakistan has to confront the challenges emerging from this fluid external environment even as it deals with pressing internal problems. The two are inextricably linked. The distinction between the internal and external no longer holds.
A number of emerging trends and strategic issues could impact on Pakistan’s security calculus in the years ahead. The important ones include:
Political
• What will the US pivot to Asia mean? Sino-US cooperation or confrontation? What will be the consequences of an undeclared or overt contain-China strategy?
• What will the emerging Indo-US strategic collaboration mean for the region? US officials describe this as the “lynchpin” of America’s Asia strategy.
• How will the uncertainties of the 2014 political and security transitions in Afghanistan be addressed? How will this affect the stability of post-Nato Afghanistan?
• How will the present US-Iran standoff play out?
• Implications of the Muslim world’s growing division into Sunni and Shia power centres.
Military
• With large scale, boots-on-the-ground military interventions out of favour in war-fatigued western nations, will these give way to stealth wars, robotic warfare and drive-by interventions?
• Will Stuxnet-type cyber attacks become more common?
• Consequences for Pakistan of India’s build-up of conventional military and strategic capabilities and growing asymmetries.
Economic
• Asia’s new economic map reflecting ongoing shifts in power.
• Scramble for energy resources and new markets, especially among major powers.
• Demographic expansion in Asia and rising income disparities.
• Effects of climate change and increasing importance of water disputes in the region.
Several of these trends are beyond the realm of traditional, ‘hard’ security issues. But they have far reaching implications for Pakistan since every country today accepts that national security must be comprehensive.
Turning now to the strategic and security challenges Pakistan faces – from its east and west and from internal threats.
A promising start has been made in recent years to normalise relations with India. But while atmospherics and the political and business environment have improved, the strategic relationship remains fraught. This is because of the unresolved state of disputes – including Kashmir – and India’s conventional and strategic posture and build-up. Even tackling issues regarded as ‘low hanging fruit’ has been ruled out by the hardening of India’s position on Siachen, for example.
Trade liberalisation has been the centrepiece of normalisation. But the question is whether a positive economic trajectory in relations can be sustained without movement on political disputes? This is especially relevant in the context of strategic developments.
The enunciation and operationalisation of ‘proactive’ military doctrines by India, aimed at engaging in limited conventional war below the nuclear threshold, have added a destabilising factor to the troubled strategic picture. While investing in the normalisation process, Pakistan has also had to respond to the accretion in Pakistan-specific Indian capabilities. It has thus followed the maxim that countries respond to capabilities, not intentions – which can change overnight.
India’s doctrinal shift and consequent military posture and development strategy, which is mostly Pakistan-focused, have shaped Pakistan’s security calculus and planning. In response, Pakistan has redefined the principles of its military strategy and evolved what it calls a comprehensive response aimed at achieving Full Spectrum Deterrence in both the conventional and nuclear domains. This represents a departure from earlier thinking because it seeks to reorient and align defence strategy at the strategic, operational and tactical levels.
Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to diplomatically engage India to consider the establishment of a Strategic Restraint Regime to stabilise their strategic relationship. First proposed in 1999, this is still on the negotiating table. It has three elements – measures for nuclear restraint, conventional military balance and resolution of disputes. So far this has not been accepted by India.
The situation on its western frontier in Afghanistan has also posed enduring strategic dilemmas for Pakistan. Islamabad’s security anxieties are being heightened by the uncertainties of the looming 2014 transition when most Nato combat forces will depart Afghanistan. Having suffered from the blowback of three decades of strife and war in Afghanistan, continued instability on the western front has serious repercussions for Pakistan’s security.
Pakistan has long called for ending the war in Afghanistan by a negotiated political solution. The nightmare scenario for Pakistan is any post-2014 descent into chaos and a replay of any 1990s-type scenario, which proved so devastating for the region. Pakistan also seeks an outcome that does not again turn Afghanistan into a haven for regenerated terrorist networks or attacks on a neighbouring country.
Effective management of the 2014 transition is thus critical for Pakistan and its internal stability, which has been so grievously affected by the spread of militancy into its tribal areas and beyond. The US-led western alliance has a withdrawal deadline – 2014 – predicated on the questionable assumption that Afghan security forces will be able to take charge of their country’s security. Only in recent weeks have diplomatic efforts been mounted to explore possibilities for a peace process involving dialogue with the Taliban. The prospects remain uncertain.
This presents Pakistan with sharp dilemmas of how to respond to a possible security vacuum as the Nato withdrawal gets underway. There is growing danger of more turmoil spilling over into its tribal areas and another influx of Afghan refugees to add to around 3 million already in the country, still the world’s largest displaced population. The sanctuaries that Pakistani Taliban militants have found in Kunar and Nuristan, from where they conduct cross-border attacks into Pakistan, are a grim signpost to a threat that can heighten if the security vacuum widens in Afghanistan.
While Pakistan will have to take necessary precautionary steps for these dire eventualities, it will continue to press for an agreed strategy among the three countries constituted as the ‘core group’ – US, Afghanistan and Pakistan – to establish the political conditions needed to install a serious peace process, including an end to the fighting before 2014. With Nato’s deadline just 24 months away, time is short and the challenge enormous.
More turmoil in Afghanistan will aggravate the country’s internal security picture when the threat from militancy and terrorism from a syndicate of violent groups is far from being overcome. Two major military operations in Swat and South Waziristan and ongoing actions elsewhere have driven militants out of some of their bases and halted their advance into the country’s settled areas. But the sanctuaries of assorted militants in North Waziristan still have to be tackled. The goal of defeating militancy is not yet within reach.
Violent extremism and militancy remain a daunting challenge and will keep the country’s army and law-enforcement agencies preoccupied, and dominate the country’s threat perceptions for years to come. For the first time the Pakistan Army has had to simultaneously operate in two arenas – dealing with external threats as well as internal security.
While complex global and regional dynamics will present Pakistan with daunting challenges, the most important strategic choices lie within. Only an economically stable and tolerant nation, which secures itself at home, can be in a position to meet challenges from outside. The most immediate threat to Pakistan’s stability comes from a worsening economy, whose fundamentals remain to be addressed.
The writer is special adviser to the Jang Group/Geo and a former envoy to the US and the UK.
Based on a recent speech at an international conference.