Polls, war and religion
By Hussain H Zaidi

A number of factors set the upcoming national polls apart from previous such exercises. To begin with, for the first time elections are being held with a neutral caretaker setup at the helm and an independent Election Commission on the watch. This is quite an achievement in a country with a history of controlled and rigged elections.

Yes, at times the caretakers have been blamed for being well short on ‘impartiality’, while the ECP has been charged with letting loan defaulters and tax-evaders off the hook. While such accusations do have an element of truth, it can hardly be denied that courtesy the 20th Amendment to the constitution, both the bodies responsible for conducting the present electoral exercise command far greater credibility than was the case in the past. The relationship between democracy and fair polls goes either way. A free and fair electoral exercise strengthens democracy and a mature democracy in turn makes holding credible elections just business as usual.

Between 1970 and 2008, Pakistan’s first popularly elected prime minister ZA Bhutto, dead or alive, played a significant role in determining the outcome of the elections. For the poor and the downtrodden, Bhutto signified access to the necessities of life (roti, kapra aur makan). Socialists and educated urbanites saw in Bhutto equality of opportunities and prospects for upward social mobility respectively. For the democrat, he was a symbol of the people’s power. To his enemies and detractors, Bhutto was an incarnation of fascism, immorality and personal/dynastic rule. For these reasons, it has been convenient to categorise the electorate into Bhutto and anti-Bhutto, with each side taking turns at assuming power.

Is the Bhutto factor playing the same role in the present polls? Not quite so. Several of the traditional detractors of Bhutto (notably the Sharifs of Raiwind) have become his admirers, at least in public. The generation that was emotionally attached to Bhutto is giving way to a generation more well-informed and pragmatic. The importance of the Bhutto factor is on the wane for many reasons. Instead two main divisions can be noted in the 2013 elections – one between progressive and right-wing forces; the other between the old and the new.

The PPP, the ANP and the MQM represent progressive forces. These parties want to keep religion and politics separate and shun religious extremism. They take ownership of the war against terror and do not support unconditional ceasefire with the militants. The ANP, in particular, has lost many an activist in the fight against militancy. As for the PPP, one of the few things on the credit side of its government’s balance sheet was the fight against militancy. While the MQM can be criticised for many reasons, it eschews divisions and discrimination in the name of sect or creed.

The PML-N and the PTI, on the other hand, are right-wing forces. Both make strong appeals to faith and creed and have adopted a ‘holier-than-thou’ posture. Both look down upon secularism for being what they call ‘incompatible’ with Islam. The PML-N has allegedly had links with sectarian outfits and its government in Punjab had the reputation of being soft on such organisations. As far as the war on terror is concerned, the PML-N has had an ambiguous position, while the PTI has made it clear that Pakistan is fighting America’s war and that the only way to deal with the militants is for the government to announce an unconditional ceasefire.

The upcoming elections will test how the electorate looks at the war on terror and what place religion should have in the polity.

Although in the political arena for more than a decade and a half, Imran Khan’s PTI is, for the first time, going to the polls as with a mainstream party. Its main argument is that the older parties, the PPP and the PML-N, having been tested, and having failed, on several occasions can’t bring about the change that the people, especially the youth, so desperately want. Only a new untested force – meaning a rejuvenated PTI with ‘Mr Clean’ Imran Khan at its head – can do so. While the PTI has a number of old, well-tested horses in its ranks, the party enjoys the benefit of the doubt for having never been in the saddle and thus having never done anything wrong. The party’s performance in the polls will largely hinge on how well it sells its contrast of the old and the new and its promise of change.

These elections are being held in a precarious security situation. The militants who dismiss the present political system as ‘un-Islamic’ have carried out a series of attacks to disrupt electoral campaigns. Of all the political parties, the PPP, the ANP and the MQM are in the line of fire for having been at the forefront in the fight against terrorism. These three parties, in addition to the PML-Q, made up the coalition that governed the country for the last five years and they have run the gauntlet of criticism for alleged massive corruption and gross incompetence. Yes, these parties must pay the price for their acts of omission and commission. However, only the electorate is entitled to exact the price.

But the three parties have been forced to partially halt their electoral campaigns, while their principal adversaries – the PML-N and the PTI – have been able to conduct proper electoral campaigns. The lack of a level playing field can harm both the PPP and the ANP since the MQM has a more or less secure vote bank in urban Sindh. Another result of the security situation may be a low voter turnout. Therefore, a real challenge for the parties will be to bring their potential voters to the polling stations.

In Punjab, which will be the real battleground because of its sheer size, the PPP seems to have run out of steam and is widely seen to lag behind both the PML-N and the PTI. That said, it is premature to write the party off. The PPP still has a foothold in rural Punjab while in urban areas it will be betting on the PTI to eat up the PML-N’s vote bank. In interior Sindh, the PPP is likely to maintain its pre-eminent position in the absence of a credible alternative for the voters. The PML-N, whose power base is Punjab, seems to have placed all its eggs in one basket – a basket its two adversaries want to lay their hands on. Can the party be the winner who takes all? The PTI can tip the scales. The question is whether it will do so in its own favour or to the advantage of the PPP.

The writer is a freelance contributor.Email: hussainhzaidi@gmail.com