When it comes to efforts towards improving Islamabad’s often frosty ties with arch-rival India, the score of the previous PPP-led government remains relatively good given the odds it was pitted against during its five-year term. But with Nawaz Sharif back in power for a record third time, peaceniks appear more bullish about the prospects of normalisation of relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
The optimism and excitement within the peace lobbies on both sides of the great divide is understandable. Sharif is seen as a leader who tried to bring about a paradigm shift in Pakistan-India relations along with his then Indian counterpart, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, way back in 1999. Even at that time pro-business Nawaz Sharif’s vision was to allow the economy to determine diplomacy. The problem was that he did not manage to take other important stakeholders, including the army, on board on this vital issue. The result was the Kargil conflict, which derailed the entire peace process. Its aftermath also sent the Sharif government packing in the bloodless military coup of October 1999. What happened after is history.
This time around Sharif is unlikely to face the kind of hostilities he had to confront in 1999 when the military establishment and the mainstream religious parties stood vehemently opposed to the way he was pushing the peace process. But today there is a broad consensus among all the mainstream political parties of Pakistan to improve ties with India. The mighty military establishment, though cautious, is not dead set against any such move. In fact, many of the track two diplomatic efforts and peace overtures came following its silent nod.
The peace lobbies within the two countries are also much stronger and more vocal compared to the past. The unique and unprecedented media-led peace movement Aman Ki Asha – jointly sponsored by Pakistan’s media giant the Jang Group and India’s biggest group, The Times of India – has also managed to create waves and bring peace and economy on the front burner by organising a series of events and sponsoring and supporting open public debates.
If the former military-led government paved the way for peace by effectively halting the infiltration of Islamist militants into Indian-occupied Kashmir and allowing cultural ties to flourish – including official permission to screen Indian movies in Pakistani cinemas and airing Indian programmes and music on local television channels and radio stations – the previous PPP-led government managed to push for trade ties despite the November 2008 terror attack in Mumbai.
The last two years of the PPP-led government proved fruitful for Pakistan-India relations as trade diplomacy intensified. The tangible achievements included opening of an integrated Wagah-Attari land border crossing in April 2012. This crossing has the potential to handle a tenfold increase in trade goods. The same month New Delhi announced that it would permit foreign direct investment from Pakistan. Soon after, India removed a ban on Pakistani businesses setting up operations inside India.
On its part, Pakistan scrapped its positive list of 2,000 goods that could be imported from India and replaced it by a negative list of about 1,200 items that could not be imported. Islamabad promised to eliminate the negative list by end-2012, which could have opened the way for granting a fully operational most favoured nation (MFN) status to India. In return, Pakistan pressed for removal of non-tariff barriers and trade concessions from India under the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta) agreement.
However, the PPP government was unable to tie up these important loose ends, including the abolishment of the negative list as relations between the two countries continued to oscillate between goodwill and deep mistrust and hostility.
The momentum of normalising trade relations fizzled out in the wake of Pakistan’s pre-election domestic political compulsions and border tensions with India. But the process can be revived and reaccelerated by Sharif, who enjoys a lot of goodwill across the border and is expected to form a much more stable and efficient government than the PPP.
The cheerleaders and backers of peace, however, should not expect dramatic developments within a short period. If history is any guide, expectations of quick results in diplomacy can prove lethal and counterproductive. Therefore, Pakistan-India relations must be kept out of the breaking news syndrome. Expectations should not be inflated at the very start of the new innings by Sharif who faces many grave challenges and pressing issues, and of which our relations with India are one.
Nevertheless, the public posturing from both Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been more than positive and encouraging so far. The two leaders appear to have hit a cord when Singh made a congratulatory call to Sharif. This was followed by the special envoy of the Indian premier calling on Nawaz Sharif and discussing how to take the Pakistan-India dialogue process forward.
Sharif and Singh should first aim to finish what remains incomplete under the previous PPP government. This includes the removal of the negative list of goods imported from India, granting India MFN status and allowing the import of all goods from the Wagah-Attari border in exchange for the removal of non-tariff barriers and trade concessions by New Delhi to Pakistan. While this will open up the huge Indian market for Pakistani goods, Indian businesses and traders will benefit from access to Pakistan’s 180 million people strong market.
The two governments should also aim to implement the new visa regime, which has already been agreed on but not implemented in totality because of routine tensions and the jingoistic stance taken more by India than Pakistan. The window to achieving this before the Indian general elections – due in 2014 – remains small since no Indian government would like to be seen giving concessions to Pakistan ahead of the polls.
Sharif and Pakistani peace activists should sallow this bitter fact that in recent years the Indian establishment’s position has hardened towards Pakistan when it comes to the resolution of core political issues – starting from the troops’ pullout from Siachen to the Sir Creek dispute, both once considered low-hanging fruits. The protracted Kashmir dispute hardly figures on India’s priority list as New Delhi has been increasingly trying to make terrorism the core issue rather than this divided Himalayan region.
With the Indian economy booming and New Delhi aspiring to join the ‘big boys’ club internationally, there is a growing feeling in India that this is hardly the right time for any give and take with Pakistan – which is on a slippery slope due to internal strife, terrorism, and militancy on the one hand and a weak economy on the other.
Therefore, it would be prudent of Pakistan’s new government to move cautiously in normalising relations with India rather than rushing on this path. Yes, boosting trade and economic ties within the region is vital, but without addressing the core political issues between the two countries, it would be like building castles on shifting sands.
Sharif, who is now a much more mature and astute politician compared to what he was in 1999, should also ensure that all stakeholders, including the military, remain on board when he attempts to expand and improve ties with India in a slow and gradual manner. The unity of thought and action within all institutions of Pakistan remains a must for any tangible and sustained gains on this front.
Pakistan and India are not the only two countries in the world with border disputes. Many other nations face similar challenges but have managed to find ways to keep themselves engaged for the resolution of such disputes while at the same time carrying on with day-to-day business including that of expanding trade and economic ties. Can Pakistan and India perform this high-wire act or will they remain hostage to history? Sharif offers a ray of hope, at least on Pakistan’s side.
Email: amir.zia@thenews.com.pk
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