What took Nawaz to China
By Shahzad Chaudhry

The pairing may seem a bit odd because Z A Bhutto was the first one to open channels with China in 1963-4 while still the foreign minister in Ayub Khan's cabinet. What would perhaps come natural for the PML-N is Turkey, with whose leadership both the Sharif brothers have cultivated an especially close relationship in the last few years. But instead the first visit the two brothers made after assuming power was to Beijing.

Dough is what took Nawaz Sharif to China. Riddled with a teetering economy and a nation badly bereft of energy, he is in need of ready cash to rebuild both. And while a few have it, but none as much as Pakistan's much extolled strategic friend China. Sitting atop a cash pile of over two trillion dollars, China has been rather frugal with its money.

In the last few years, a corrupt government in Pakistan in all probability kept China away from making easy money available to those at the helm who would have pilfered most of it away. Even otherwise, the Chinese are known to value their money and not part with it that easily, unless the returns are of greater value.

The Chinese may have been late to the international finance market, but they have learnt the art fast. Given a strong Asian business tradition that dwells around great flexibility, the Chinese have established themselves well in most developing nations. Some may also count the American proclivity to line as many pockets as they can with an amount ostensibly meant for socioeconomic uplift of the target nations; USAID and many other host NGOs thrive on one or more moral emblems at their basic level as convenient disbursing avenues.

Ask them to place the money in one flagship project – a big dam, a major hospital or an international university – and you are likely to come up with nothing. The more pockets are lined, the more are there those who can be counted in the service of Uncle Sam. The Chinese will take on major projects but will get their due back through some equally significant strategic return; for the moment commodities like rare earth metals are useful to its industrial needs.

So what was the prime minister looking for in China? Essentially two basic needs: something to trigger the economy with, and something to help Pakistan find ways and means to produce more energy – both with Chinese money. He is likely to get some positive response, albeit with some super assurance on his part that the Chinese will demand the safety of their people, money and machinery. With major projects under their belt, more Chinese get to work on these projects; a windfall that goes to the benefit of the Chinese state. The money that Pakistan will pay to these companies will be their due for the services rendered, while Pakistan will get the product and keep it.

The Neelum-Jhelum and Nandipur projects are the right places to begin, but work on Bhasha, Bunji and Jamshoro must also start. And there has been some talk on these during the visit of the PM. Coal is another important area, though not the most preferred, simply because of the low efficiency of Thar coal. Concerns over excessive per capita carbon footprint can wait till Pakistan can tap every source to make up for its energy shortfall.

The economic corridor from Gwadar to Khunjerab is a unique project and is more likely to spread over at least a decade, or more. If, and when completed, it can prove to be the trigger for a regional resurgence in trade and connectivity that can change the face of this entire region, as indeed change the dimensions of regional relationships – India-Pakistan; Central Asia-South West Asia; China, Iran and India. If there is one thing that can make the dream of a South Asian Union come true, it is this project. For exactly that reason it will also face a greater amount of hurdles and international intrigue. What it, therefore, needs is unmatched political commitment.

The bullet train is superfluous; instead spend the same money on recovering our existing Railways – but without the Chinese engines please. The underground metro project in Beijing for mass transit that Mian Sahib so lovingly asked the younger brother to include in the shopping basket must find place in Karachi, not Lahore or Islamabad.

What about the funds? None of this is likely to be done solely with Chinese money. Did we think of creating a joint Pakistan-China Investment Fund, with a major portion placed in there by our rich Chinese friends awash with liquid money, and some participation by Pakistan borne out of Chinese grants and loans to be repaid through various arrangements – limited freehold of Gwadar, exclusive mining rights in Balochistan and coal in Thar?

The difficulty with MoUs that get signed between leaders at such summit meetings is that they soon get piled under newer ones and hardly get to see the light of day. The way to beat this is to institute a China-Pakistan Economic Cooperation Council under the prime minister which must meet every three months to review the progress of the various initiatives meant to revive the economy and recover the energy differential. Without which these will only remain pipedreams.

About the two nuclear power plants of over 1100MWs capacity each for Karachi: we should leave them to another time. Too much honey, too, can kill.

The writer is a retired air-vice marshal of the Pakistan Air Force and served as its deputy chief of staff. Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com