• STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE – Decarbonization over centuries
.
Decarbonization or the changing carbon intensity of primary energy for the world. Carbon intensity is calculated as the ratio of the sum of the carbon content of all fuels to the sum of the energy content of all primary energy sources. Figure prepared by N. M. Victor, Program for the Human Environment, The Rockefeller University, 2003.

• The most important and surprising fact to emerge from energy studies during the past two decades is that, for the last 200 years, the world has progressively pursued a path of decarbonization, a decreasing relative reliance on carbon

• Think of decarbonization as the course over time in the ratio of tons of carbon in the energy supply to the total energy supply, for example, tons of carbon per tons of oil equivalent encompassing all energy supplies.


• Wood is made of much cellulose and some lignin. Heated cellulose leaves charcoal, almost pure carbon. Lignin is a hydrocarbon with a complex benzenic structure. Wood effectively burns about ten carbons for each hydrogen atom.

• Coal approaches parity with one or two C’s per H, depending on the

• Oils are lighter yet, with, for example, with two H’s per C, in kerosene or jet fuel.

• A molecule of methane, the typical natural gas, is a carbon-trim (CH4) that is one carbon for four molecules of hydrogen.

Competition between hydrogen and carbon in primary energy sources. The evolution is seen in the ratio of hydrogen (H) to carbon © in the world fuel mix, graphed on a logarithmic scale, analyzed as a logistic growth process and plotted in the linear transform of the logistic (S) curve. Progression of the ratio above natural gas (methane, CH 4) requires production of large amounts of hydrogen fuel with non-fossil energy. Source: J. H. Ausubel, Can Technology Spare the Earth? American Scientist 84(2):166-178, 1996.

• In 1800 carbon had 90% of the market. In 1935 the elements tied. With business as usual and the rising Pacific Rim economies not considered, hydrogen will garner 90% of the market by 2100.

• Carbon becomes soot or the feared greenhouse gas CO2, and hydrogen becomes only water when combusted, carbon depending on the combustion process combines with nitrogen and oxygen in the air to generate pollutants like CO2, CO, NOX and hydrogen generates water.

• Decarbonization towards a hydrogen economy is only a question of when not if. This transition provides a convergence not conflict between energy and environment.

• The driving force in evolution of the energy system is the increasing spatial density of energy consumption at the level of the end user.

• The British experience demonstrates that, when energy consumption per unit of area rises, the energy sources with higher economies of scale gain an advantage.

• Coal had a long run at the top of the energy heap. Coal-powered automobiles, however, never had much appeal. The weight and volume of the fuel were hard problems, especially for a highly distributed transport system.

• Oil had a higher energy density than coal—and the advantage of flowing through pipelines and into tanks. It is easy to understand why oil gained ascendancy over coal by 1950 as the world’s leading energy source.

• Nevertheless, the share of primary energy used to make electricity has grown steadily in all countries over the past 75 years and now approaches 40%. The Internet economy demands further electrification, with perfect reliability

• The stable dynamics of the energy system permit reliable forecasts. Decarbonization essentially defines the future of energy supply.

• Globally we are destined to use about 50-80 billion tons more coal. This is about one-third what humans have mined in all our earlier history, and about 30 years at present levels of production.

• Coal companies R/D and commercialization is focused on extracting methane from coal seams and sink CO2 there, staying in business without coal extraction. Using CO2 to displace methane (CH4) adsorbed in coal beds provides a two for one bargain

• Globally, drivers and others will consume close to 300 billion tons more oil, before the fleet runs entirely on H2 separated from methane or water. This amount is almost double the petroleum that has so far been extracted, and about 50 years at present production, so oil companies it is business as usual for a while.

• For gas, the next decades will bring enormous growth, matching rising estimates of the gas resource base, which have more than doubled over the past 20 years;

• Between its uses to fuel turbines to make electric power and for fuel cells for transport, Natural gas will dominate the primary energy picture for the next few decades.

• It is expected that methane will provide perhaps 70% of primary energy soon after the year 2030 and to reach a peak absolute use in 2060 of about 30 x 1012 m3, ten times present annual use.


Conclusion

Evolution is a series of replacements. Replacements also mark the evolution of the energy system. Between about 1910 and 1930 cars replaced horses in the United States.

Earlier steam engines had replaced water wheels and later electric drives replaced steam engines. These replacements required about 50 years in the marketplace.

It required about the same amount of time for railways to replace canals as the lead mode of transport and longer for roads to overtake railways and for air to overtake roads.


• GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF ENERGY


• Increased competition between strategic players for energy


• Energy shortfall in USA


• Increasing Energy demands of Pacific Rim Nations


• Major oil producing countries oil production is on a plateau or peaked


• Increasing dependence on Middle Eastern oil.


• The oil markets do not work well without safety net


• Oil price will rise

Greatest Oil Reserves by Country, 2003


2002
rank Country 2003 proved reserves
(billion barrels)
1. Saudi Arabia 261.7
2. Iraq 115.0
3. Iran 100.1
4. Kuwait 98.9
5. United Arab Emirates 63.0
6. Russia 58.8
7. Venezuela 53.1
8. Nigeria 32.0
9. Libya 30.0
10. China 23.7
NOTES: Figures for Russia are “explored reserves,” which are understood to be proved plus some probable. All other figures are proved reserves recoverable with present technology and prices.
Source: World Oil, Vol. 224, No. 8 (Aug. 2003). From: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2002 (March–June 2004).


PAKISTAN SITUATION

ENERGY OVERVIEW

Proven Oil Reserves (1/1/02E): 298 million barrels
Oil Production (2001E): 57,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), of which 53,000 bbl/d was crude oil
Oil Consumption (2001E): 359,000 bbl/d
Net Oil Imports (1999E): 302,000 bbl/d
Crude Oil Refining Capacity (1/1/02E): 238,850 bbl/d
Natural Gas Reserves (1/1/02E): 25.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
Natural Gas Production (1999E): 0.8 Tcf
Natural Gas Consumption (1999E): 0.8 Tcf
Coal Production (1999E): 3.8 million short tons (Mmst)
Coal Consumption (1999E): 4.9 Mmst
Net Coal Imports (1999E): 1.1 Mmst
Recoverable Coal Reserves (12/31/96E): 3.2 billion short tons
Electric Generation Capacity (1/1/99E): 17.0 gigawatts (71% thermal, 28% hydro, 1% nuclear)
Electricity Generation (1999E): 62 billion kilowatthours

ENVIRONMENTAL OVERVIEW

Total Energy Consumption (1999E): 1.8 quadrillion Btu* (0.47% of world total energy consumption)
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions (1999E): 27.9 million metric tons of carbon (0.45% of world total carbon emissions)
Per Capita Energy Consumption (1999E): 12.5 million Btu (vs. U.S. value of 355.8 million Btu)
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (1999E): 0.2 metric tons of carbon (vs. U.S. value of 5.5 metric tons of carbon)
Energy Intensity (1999E): 31,193 Btu/$1990 (vs U.S. value of 12,638 Btu/$1990)**
Carbon Intensity (1999E): 0.48 metric tons of carbon/thousand $1990 (vs U.S. value of 0.19 metric tons/thousand $1990)**
Sectoral Share of Energy Consumption (1998E): Residential (48.8%), Industrial (33.4%), Transportation (13.3%), Commercial (4.5%)
Sectoral Share of Carbon Emissions (1998E): Industrial (44.9%), Transportation (27.2%), Residential (22.2%), Commercial (5.7%)
Fuel Share of Energy Consumption (1999E): Oil (41.9%), Natural Gas (40.0%), Coal (5.0%)
Fuel Share of Carbon Emissions (1999E): Oil (54.6%), Natural Gas (37.4%), Coal (8.0%)
Renewable Energy Consumption (1998E): 1,145 trillion Btu* (1% increase from 1997)
Number of People per Motor Vehicle (1998E): 125 (vs. U.S. value of 1.3)
Status in Climate Change Negotiations: Non-Annex I country under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ratified June 1st, 1994). Not a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol.
Major Environmental Issues: Water pollution from raw sewage, industrial wastes, and agricultural runoff; limited natural fresh water resources; a majority of the population does not have access to potable water; deforestation; soil erosion and desertification.
Major International Environmental Agreements: A party to Conventions on Biodiversity, Climate Change, Desertification, Endangered Species, Environmental Modification, Hazardous Wastes, Law of the Sea, Nuclear Test Ban, Ozone Layer Protection, Ship Pollution and Wetlands . Has signed, but not ratified, Marine Life Conservation.
* The total energy consumption statistic includes petroleum, dry natural gas, coal, net hydro, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind, wood and waste electric power. The renewable energy consumption statistic is based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data and includes hydropower, solar, wind, tide, geothermal, solid biomass and animal products, biomass gas and liquids, industrial and municipal wastes. Sectoral shares of energy consumption and carbon emissions are also based on IEA data.
**GDP based on EIA International Energy Annual 1999


ENERGY INDUSTRY

Organization: Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC), a state company, handles oil and gas exploration and development; Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) supplies electricity to most of the country; Karachi Electric Supply Corporation Limited (KESC) serves the greater Karachi metropolitan area; Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) operates one nuclear power plant
Major Foreign Energy Company Involvement: AES, Atlantic Richfield, British National Power, Coastal Power, Gaz de France, Total, General Electric, Lasmo Oil (U.K.), Marubeni (Japan), ExxonMobil, Monument Oil & Gas, Premier Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Xenal (Saudi Arabia)
Major Ports: Gwadar, Karachi, Muhammed bin Qasim, Ormaro
Major Gas Fields: Bhit, Dhodak, Kadanwari, Mari, Prikoh, Qadipur, Sawan, Sui
Major Oil Fields: Dhurnal, Fimkasser, Liari, Mazari, Thora
Major Pipelines: Sui Northern Gas Pipeline; Sui Southern Gas Pipeline; Pak-Arab Refinery Company (PARCO) petroleum product pipeline
Major Refineries (Capacity): Pak-Arab Refinery near Multan (100,000 bbl/d); Attock Refinery in Rawalpindi (35,000 bbl/d), National Refinery in Korangi (62,050 bbl/d), Pakistan Refinery Ltd. in Karachi (46,300 bbl/d)


Pakistan: Environmental Issues

Agricultural runoff exacerbated by ongoing deforestation and industrial runoff have polluted water supplies, factory and vehicle emissions have degraded air quality in the urban centers.

In an attempt to redress the nation's mounting environmental problems, in 1992 the government issued its National Conservation Strategy Report (NCSR).

Building on the Pakistan Environmental Protection Ordinance of 1983, the NCSR stipulated three goals for the country's environmental protection efforts: (1) conservation of natural resources; (2) promotion of sustainable development; and (3) improvement of efficiency in the use and management of resources

In addition, in 1993 Pakistan instituted National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) on municipal and liquid industrial effluents and industrial gaseous emissions, motor vehicle exhaust, and noise
The new environmental regulations were implemented in 1996; only 3% of industries were able to pass the test for compliance. National attention towards environmental issues has increased recently because, under provisions of a World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement, Pakistan will have difficulty after 2005 exporting products from industries without adequate environmental safeguards.
Pakistan has not funded environmental protection efforts adequately. A January 2000 report released by the Ministry of Environment showed that Pakistan currently spends about $17 million per year on pollution-related cleanup; however, $84 million is needed to correct the country's environmental problems, and $1.8 billion per year in losses from environmental damage.
Much of the country suffers from a lack of potable water due to industrial waste and agricultural runoff that contaminates drinking water supplies.


Air Pollution

The level of air pollution in Pakistan's two largest cities, Karachi and Lahore, is estimated to be 20 times higher than World Health Organization standards.

As industry has expanded, factories have emitted more and more toxic effluents into the air. Also, as in other developing countries, the number of vehicles in Pakistan has swelled in recent years--from 680,000 in 1980 to 5 million in 2003.
The 1992 National Conservation Strategy Report claims that the average Pakistani vehicle emits 25 times as much carbon dioxide as the average U.S. vehicle, as well as 20 times as many hydrocarbons and more than 3.5 times as many nitrous oxides in grams per kilometer.

Economic damages from urban air pollution are estimated at about $370 million, with 6.4 million people hospitalized annually for air-pollution-related illnesses


Energy Consumption

Pakistan's energy consumption has nearly tripled in the last 20 years, from 0.6 quadrillion Btu in 1980 to 1.9 quads in 2001

In terms of per capita energy consumption, Pakistan's level of 12.9 million Btu in 2001 was higher than Bangladesh's (3.7 million Btu), but virtually on par with India's (12.6 million). In comparison, China's per capita energy consumption in 2001 was 30.9 million Btu, Iran's was 80.3 million Btu, and Russia's was 195.3 million Btu, while U.S. per capita consumption was 341.8 million Btu.


• PAKISTAN – THE THREATS AND OPPORTUNITY

• THREATS


• Imported oil constitutes over 31% of energy consumption 2002/2003 at a cost of $ 3,096 billion.

• The depletion/decline of Pakistan’s natural gas reserves/production will increase dependence on imports.


• Energy prices are expected to increase over the next few years.

• The tipping point in global supply and demand will occur within the next decade if not earlier.


• To reduce poverty and increase prosperity – the energy consumption in Pakistan has to increase.

• The price and availability of natural gas and oil can potentially have grave impacts to Pakistan’s welfare and national security.


• OPPORTUNITIES

• India’s appetite for energy is escalating – natural gas pipelines from either Iran or Central Asia will have to pass through Pakistan. LNG for India is an option but at a much higher price.


• China also has also signed 20 year natural gas agreement with Iran – though for LNG. As China develops its Western regions it may find a pipeline option more attractive not only for economic but also for security reasons.


• Since Pakistan’s situation is more acute than most developed and developing countries it can be a lead player and model in the Changing Global Scenario – Proactive as opposed to traditional economic reactive after the event.


• GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND COMMERCIALIZATION REVIEW

• Most alternate energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, wave, biomass etc are well documented.

• Solar PV panels are still under intense development for increased efficiency and reduced cost. Solar technology is expected to grow to US market of over $ 30 billion in the next 5 to 8 years.

• This presentation will focus more on a technology which produces electric power with no harmful emissions at efficiencies greater than 60% - Fuel Cell.

• Fuel Cell use Hydrogen to produce electric power and water – endless battery.

• Hydrogen can be produced by

o Electrolysis of water – producing hydrogen and oxygen gases.

o Reformation of any Hydrocarbon fuel – producing hydrogen, carbon monoxide and other emissions.

• Hydrogen can be stored by various methods including compressed.

• This stored hydrogen can be used on-demand to generate electric power.

• This storage of hydrogen for subsequent use to generate electricity is called “Hydrocity”.

• Solar and wind power are present in Pakistan but not available 24 hours and 365/366 days per year.

• Hydrogen can be used in Internal Combustion engines, like natural gas, to generate power (22%); though more it more efficient with fuel cell (greater 60%).

• Fuel Cell have two primary Global Markets

o Stationary Power Generation

o Mobile and Automotive applications.

• Present Barriers to fuel cell mass commercialization

o Stationary Power Generation

 Cost per kilowatt/megawatt only competitive in niche markets.

 Currently hundreds of millions in research and development being expended to quickly achieve cost targets for mass commercialization.

 Presently hundreds of commercial applications and pilot projects running in the world.

o Mobile and Automotive applications

 Cost per kilowatt/megawatt is over $500/Kw – target is $25 per Kilowatt.

 Hydrogen Storage:

o 7-10% hydrogen by weight,
o must store 7-10 Kilograms of hydrogen,
o Not more than 30% package penalty than gasoline tank.
o Unit cost less than $30

 Power Electronics:

o Unit cost less than $7 per Kw.

o Packing size be around 20 Kw per litre

o Greater than 98% efficiency.

o Commutation speed greater 20 khz, so as to be above audible range

 Currently GM, Toyota, Mercedes Benz, Ford etc are devoting thousands of engineers and hundreds of millions in research and development being expended to quickly achieve cost target of $30 per kilowatt for mass commercialization.

 The generally expected date for mass consumer commercialization is 2015 but marketing noises are indicating as early as 2010.

 Presently pilot automotive cars are running in the world from GM, Ford, and Toyota, MB etc.


• ROADMAP FOR PAKISTAN


o WHAT

 Decrease dependence on energy imports – displace imported fuel with local energy and hydrogen.
 Reduce Poverty
 Increase prosperity
 Increase energy consumption to sustain growth in GDP
 Mitigate risk to national security
 Increase usage of Hydrogen as a fuel - Eventually achieve congruence between energy and environment.
 Increase efficiency of energy usage.
 Move to decentralized and distributed energy generation and sustaining scenario.
 Globally recognized as an Alternate Energy and Power Generation Technology Nation.
 Global exporter of alternate energy and power generation solutions.


o HOW

 Deletion policies should be expanded to include fuels, energy and power generation.
 Close coordination between energy and environment policies.
 Leverage private sector for implementation.
 Policies to generate establish and foster alternate energy and power industry and research – the markets potential should be clearly visible to MNCs and International investors.
 Establish Alternate Energy and Power Research, Development and Testing facilities – similar to Argonne and NREL in USA.
 Develop global state of manpower and human resources to support cradle to death expertise in the sector.
 Develop Global alliances to secure and dependable supply chain relationships.
 Organization and mechanisms developed to ensure timely implementation at national, provincial and local levels.
 Initiate Pilot programs to benchmark new and emerging technologies – provide forums for private sector awareness of innovative opportunities and solutions.
 Foster niche markets for early commercialization of new technologies.

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Good Work!!!

Hydrogen really has the potential to balance our energy needs and pollution problems alongwith its technical and financial feasability for our current energy and transport systems. I wonder why Pakistan Council of Renewable energies and Technologies and the Alternate Energy Development Board do not consider it as a viable option

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Freedom Ltd.