China: Emerging superpower


Most of the second half of the year 2009, I spent in the State of California of the United States of America where I had gone with my wife to meet my son and welcome an addition in his family. There I had lot of time to read almost all the leading newspapers and magazines published from USA. Economics being a subject of my special interest, I concentrated more on articles and analysis both by independent as well as, apparently biased, writers on US and world economy as perceived by them.

As a result of this study, I found that there was almost consensus amongst the economic writers that the US economy was collapsing and the 21st century world would be shaped in Asia led by China.

American economy is really in bad shape. About 1.2 million people have lost their jobs during the last 2 years economic melt down. The unemployment rate has gone upto 11 percent. America is presently the most highly indebted country in the world. With total loans of about 17 trillion dollars with China being the biggest single lender having a share of about $ one trillion. It is estimated that USA would add another 7 trillion dollars to it burden of debits during the next five years to meet its budget deficits. Street demonstrations with banners and play cards such as “We have been fighting Iraq and Afghan war with borrowed money, “it is unjustified and unwinable war” stop playing world policemen role and concentrate on your economy and well being of the people” are on the rise. This shows the public mood and disapproval of their government policies.

China is perhaps, the only country in the world with $ two trillion in its reserves in addition to 1 trillion in the form of US dollars bonds floated by the USA. Being an old admirer of China for its policies to concentrate on its economic development and well being of its people quietly by keeping itself meticulously away from international disputes and tussles mainly for creating hegemonies. I am pro-China also because I feel that China is the only real trustworthy and all weather friend of Pakistan. It has always come to the help Pakistan in all its calamities – both natural and man-made without publicizing it or asking any thing in return from my country Pakistan. How genuine and steadfast is China in its friendship with Pakistan can be judged from the fact that even today China does not recognize Kashmir to be a part of India. It recognized Bangladesh after we have done so. I was delighted to find that even Americans of independent thinking are realizing that China is fast on its way to become a super power. Rapid and homogenous progress in all fields during the last few decades is now being publically acknowledged by its adversaries as well.

How it has happened that a war ravaged, poor and feudal dominated country sixty year back has emerged to become the third largest economic power of the world. It is a fantastic story of hard struggle of a nation led by selfless and dedicated leadership with a vision which must be told to our leaders and public repeatedly for their self accountability. What we have done to our country in sixty years in comparison to our neighbor China, we must make this comparisons periodically to find out where we have faulted.

The great Chinese People, under their Fourth Generation Leadership, with Hu Jintao as the core, recently celebrated the 60th Anniversary of the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China on Ist October, 1949 by the great revolutionary leader Chairman Mao Zedong.

The People’s Republic of China, during the first phase, 1949 to 1976, under the revolutionary leadership of Mao Zedong, domestically laid emphasis on meeting the basic needs of the people like education, health, housing, employment and externally on safeguarding national independence, territorial integrity and national dignity. We, in Pakistan, must reflect on our performance in these fields.

The second phase under Deng Xiaoping from 1978 pushed forward Zhu Enlai’s idea of four modernizations of agriculture, industrial enterprises, science and technology and defence. What are we doing to improve or even to save our agriculture, our modest industrial progress and how serious have we been in developing science and technology?

In China, the fourth modernization programme was supplemented by the policy of reform and opening to the outside world and building of socialism with Chinese characteristics. What are our efforts towards self-reliance or building a socio-economic system to suite our characteristics, or our national ethos?

As a result of reform and opening to the outside started in 1978, China was making rapid progress. In 1989, an attempt was made to destabilize China. The Chinese Leadership boldly met the challenge, maintained Political stability and continued Economic progress with greater determination. China also smoothly resolved the question of Political succession from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin as the core and again in 2002 at the 16th Party Congress to Forth Generation Leadership with Hu Jintao as the core.In 1999, on completing 50 years as a fully sovereign and independent country, the Chinese summed up their experience with great satisfaction to acknowledge that China was not doubt emerging as a Great Power on the global scene making positive contribution to peace, stability and development. By the end of the 20th century, China had emerged as a politically stable, economically prosperous and self-confident country, making rapid economic growth, pursuing an active foreign policy and playing an increasingly larger role in global affairs.

China thus entered the 21st Century with great self-confidence. Chairman Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, led China for half a century, through the two phases of (1) Revolution and consolidation of Independence (2) Modernization, Reform and Opening to the outside after the crisis of 1989 Jiang Zemin was made Secretary General of CPC by Deng. Later he was confirmed by the Fourteenth National Congress of the Congress Party of China in 1992, and formed the core of the Third Generation Leadership, which formally adopted their guiding philosophy as “Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong thoughts and Deng Xiaoping Theory”. After five years of success in economic and social development and enhanced influence in Foreign Affairs, the Fifteen CPC National Congress in 1997, gave Jiang Zemin and his team another five year term to continue their policies.

In 2002, the 16th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held at Beijing on 8-14 November, 2002, made important decisions for the future development of China under a correct policy orientation. Mr. Jiang Zemin, who has been Secretary General of the Party, reviewed the progress made during the last 13 years since he assumed charge in 1989. He explained that under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Chinese Communist Party had been successfully continuing and further deepening Deng’s policy of reform and opening to the outside world, to build Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and to establish Socialist Market Economy, for the overall national development, progress and prosperity of China.

In 60 years, China, a war ravaged, poor, feudal-colonial society, has emerged as a unified, progressive modern nation. Through careful planning and determined implementation of it’s plans China has been making rapid strides in economic and social development and giving a better quality of life to its people. The power, in China, no longer flows from the barrel of the gun, but from the moving wheels of industry and the creative urge of its people to harness new technology for the service of man and mankind.China has been building a Well-off Society in all around way and speeding up socialist modernization. Now the efforts are directed to follow “Scientific Development Concept” to create a “Harmonious Society” internally as well as internationally.

By the end of the 20th century China rose to 7th position amongst world’s top ten economic giants, after USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK and Italy, but ahead of Brazil, Canada and Spain. China continued rapid progress at the annual rate 10 to 11% and gradually overtook Italy, UK and France. By 2007 China became the fourth largest economy.

When the recession hit the world and many countries went into negative growth China’s growth continued though at a reduced rate. China is fast picking up. It has now overtaken Germany and ranks third economy in the world after USA and Japan.

By the middle of the current century, the Chinese expect the population to rise to 1.5 billion and per capita GNP over $4,000, which is expected to make China’s total GNP of about $6,000 billion or $6 trillion. As China’s GNP has already reached $4.2 trillion perhaps, it will be even higher than the planned $6 trillion by 2049.

Pakistan-China Cooperation in 21st Century Pakistan and China had developed excellent multi-dimensional cooperation by the turn of century. In the last few years they have deepened and expanded their relations and taken them to new heights, though regular and frequent high level visits. Nearly 200 agreements and MoUs were signed between the two countries to expand cooperation in various fields and to build a multi-dimensional, comprehensive and strategic cooperation. It is important to understand that when economic relations are taking the central stage between nations, the Sino-Pakistan friendship needs further impetus to sustain and to develop it in future. Strengthening economic and commercial dimension strengthens and sustains political friendship. Besides development in the region China and Pakistan have common interest in peace, security in the region of which China is the undisputed leader. Our foreign policy focus should not only to maintain the present level of our understanding but to further promote it.