No single party will get majority in next election,however,PPP and PML N will form a Coalition govt..Allah knows better...

The parliament will be without any party's majority. A leading party will need another party's hand to set up the federal govt. In sindh, there would be coalition of MQM and All pak muslim league.

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Try not to become a man of success but a man of value.

The following factors can play a commanding role in future elections:

1]military establishment:
a few points to ponder:a)kiyani,s extension has given him a room to carve his name in politics
b) chronically, high morale and image of pak army has always resulted in military intervention.
c)no popular leader would be allowed to emerge
d)army will try to shut down the nurseries of ethnicity which were hybridized
by the past dictator. so, will be in need of the federal leadership.
that,s why ----religious card would be played in blouchistan------but, the religious parties may trigger again the talibanization in KP, so, semi-religious parties or rightists would be allowed to play in khyber pakhtoonkhaw.
e)to burn the sind card, ppp will be given relatively less seats in sind.
moreover,ignorance in flood relief activities has dashed the image of ppp in rural sind.

f)army loves the coalation govts. because, no party gets full fledged control
over politics. so, same can be expected again.

2]judiciary:
----will establish independent election commission
----will resist any undemocratic intervention

3]media:
TWO CATAGORIES______1)responsible like dunya, dawn, express,waqt 2)irresponsible like GEO,ary etc.

-------responsible media will try to report normally but irresponsible channels would try not to create room for new blood .rather they would keep on earning through amplifying opposition parties. look at geo. to this channel no hero except NAWAZ exists on this soil. it rediculed IMRAN KHAN in "hum sab umeed se hain" and tried to cartoonify all other politicians except nawaz.

so, the urban areas where media is available, new politics would be discouraged by "GOEBLES,S tools".

4)AMERICA:
would support pml(n) as ppp is a falling wall.and america never supports the drowning ships.
----at the same time, would try to fuel the chaos in already traumatic country, so that the democratic forces may fail. and would encourage military
to intervene.
but, since the independent media and judiciary are the bulwarks of democracy, so, america may prefer a weak democratic and less reputed person in power house which definitely can be mr.ZARDARI.
---at the same time will try for the active role of ethnic politics.

nowwwwwwwww, we can analyze the percentage of victory of each political party;
PPP;
---success in sind rural. but in urban partly. in eastern sindh, ethnic parties like pulajo group may win.
-------------in punjab, just before the elections she would announce the new
southern province and will sweep in southern punjab to establish provincial setup at multan. and to get 10 to 15 seats of NA.
-------------in KHYBER, sherpao group may rescue ppp. but religious anger will bring failure.
-------------in blouchistan, failure.
-------------in GBLA, clean sweep.
-------------in AJK, ambiguous situation.so,we can,t predict.

PPP may get 40 to 50 seats overall in NA.
so, no chances of forming the govt.

PML(N):
----will be failure in s.punjab.
----will get seats on gt road
----in potohar region ,she will win.except pindi where sheikh may roar again.
----will play sectarian cards to grab the votes but owing to pro-americanism, everywhere the votes will be divided between pml(n) and pti (upto some extent).
----in punjab, the main adversary of pml(n) will be pml(q). if all divided sectioins get united before elections under chaudhris, then a real danger for mr. nazaz.
----in lahore and other urban centres, pti will bring carnage for pml(n).
----in KP, pti will be a real set backer in each constituency. look at the results in bielections of kp.
----in blouchistan the no of seats would be '0'.
----in ajk,not clear
----in gbla, 3 to 5 seats.
so will get only 25 to 50 seats in aggregate.

PML(Q):
no chance of rule. except when "the mummy" returns from abroad.but 'chacha wardi' is afraid of judiciary.

MQM:
the new image of mqm has be blemished owing to the ravage at
karachi streets.no seat in punjab,and GBLA . and will be confined to karachi.

PTI:
----in rural areas, no support
----in central and upper punjab(urban) may strike 5 to 10 seats.
----in s. punjab, no seat.
----in gbla 2 to 5 seats
----in blouchistan may catch every party with a surprise by forming a coalation govt with BNP and other groups. her popularity graph at rise among blouchis.
----in KHYBER, clean sweep by PTI.
----in sind, no seat.

THREADS for other parties by PTI:
1)130 million new voters have been registered who are less than 30 yrs age.
2)all anti-american voters in pakistan
3)liberals
4)educated class.
5)new trends in student unions.
)NEHRu was asked once by a journalist why you couldn,t bring halt to the creation of pakistan.
he replied that because of LAHORE. no movement rising from lahore can be
a failure.
look at all the movements of pakistan who used the lahori landscape.
almost all of them were a success.,
during last bi elections, pml(n) defeated PTI by rigging the elections.

and still pti scored 18500 votes ,which means a fracture line in typical lahori political mindset. an alarming signal for the rest of pak politicians.

but still no chances of PTI to make a powerful govt. atleast for next 5 years.

RESULT OF THE ANALYSIS:
condition #1:
a coalation govt can be established because
no one will strike the majority .and the chances of coup are less because of judiciary and media.
condition #2:
but the coup of technocrats can be anticipated if....the current politicians disappoint the masses.
the set up can be like that;
------totally democratic
------military+judiciary+intellactuals
+a small political party of good reputation
condition #3
govts of different parties in different provinces
and a coalation PM from any party except ppp.

Although Choudhry Nisar has tried a lot to deal with GHQ yet is doesn’t seem there is any deal finalized for next full-fledged government of PML(N).

Yet PML(N) chances are higher for majority in NA and Punjab as CM Sahab is doing well for flood victims.

PPP will win Sindh, 30% Punjab probably, and 20% in KPK, but will fail to make independent government in Sindh as next elections can be lethal, opposition parties will contest with higher investment.


PTI: Greater chances to get 2 to 3 seats in NA, and some MPAs as well, recent by-elections showed acceptance for PTI candidates.


PPP has done average so far, it has capacity to do more, flood affected people will decide the future of PPP and PML(N).


Regards,

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'Never think that God's delays are God's denials. Hold on; hold fast; hold out. Patience is genius!