The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz- (PML-N) led government has cause for concern again. Fresh off another rally in Raiwand, Imran Khan has announced a second dharna (sit-in) in Islamabad on 30th October. He will be leading this next round of agitation to call for public accountability of Nawaz Sharif yet again. Khan plans to do this by bringing Islamabad to a standstill, thereby creating an atmosphere of uncertainty that renders governance impossible, forcing the government to either resort to strong-arm tactics or capitulate under pressure.

The last time Khan was in Islamabad he started off strong, but as the days went by he became more desperate, at one point even calling for civil disobedience. Who can forget the images of Khan when atop his iconic container he set ablaze utility bills and called for the rest of Pakistan to do the same? Khan persisted to the extent that he managed to pin himself down with little room for political maneuvering. In the end he had little to show for his 127-day effort.

Similar to the first time, once again Khan’s intentions, thought process and the legality of his actions are being called into question. It is worth pondering over that by leading another dharna in Islamabad is he simply exercising a democratic right or infringing upon the state’s responsibility to maintain order? Khan’s dilemma is twofold. He has to convince the people of Pakistan that he remains a democratic entity, while at the same time keeping alive his threat to dislodge the government through street power.

Let us for the sake of discussion indulge ourselves in some political innovation. Instead of having the option to vote, assume we are to flip a coin to determine the future course for Pakistan. On one side, we have Khan’s way of agitational politics: hasty, violent, and precarious, offering only fleeting ‘tabdeeli’ (change). On the other side, we have the option of a sustained political process leading to an incremental but gradual, stable and comprehensive change in the long term. On which side will we want our coin to land on as it floats mid-air?

The quest for political stability is not just this government’s desire. It is a necessity every incumbent government is desperate for. Even if Imran Khan were to wake up as the prime minister after October the 30th, he will also aspire for an environment much lesser in hostilities than the one he has created right now. But then should he expect from others what he has denied them of himself?

Dharna politics to hold the corrupt accountable also has some other unintended consequences for Khan. The biggest consequence is that it shifts the focus of public debate from government’s performance to that of his political party. There is an immediate debate on the widely held opinion of internal corruption within the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) ranks. The intra-party elections of the PTI are one case in point. And this is something that Khan himself has accepted. So the claim that the PTI will hold everyone accountable, when it assumes power, without any political expediency is inherently flawed. It is food for thought that how a party can claim to cleanse Pakistan of a malaise that affects its own ranks.

A capital in lockdown also makes foreign investors fidgety. After many years in professional services, working on projects worth millions of dollars, I find clients from the US and UK asking questions regarding Pakistan’s internal stability. The only message that goes out abroad in case of a prolonged dharna is that anyone can come to Islamabad and hold the capital hostage. We must realise that in today’s world developing a skill set is not that difficult, and it is all too easy for clients to set up their projects elsewhere if they don’t feel at ease with the local conditions of a country. This is not what we want for Pakistan.

The PTI will also be looking towards their political cousin, the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), for support in the Islamabad sit-in. However, the political cost for such an action will be a lot more for the PTI compared to PAT. In fact, it makes more sense for someone like a Tahir-ul-Qadri to take to the roads as his support base mostly consists of those who have a religious affiliation with him. He has no real vote bank to lose, and he can always scooter back to Canada if events are out of keeping with his taste. The same cannot be said for the PTI, which will still have to face the wrath of the electorate.

To Khan’s credit, he has inculcated a political zeal within a previously disenchanted youth. But the political education and grooming he has imparted to his supporters has been of a very poor quality. The hallmarks of his rallies are name-calling, hate speech and the undermining of national institutions by brow beating them publicly.

Nawaz Sharif’s ouster is being presented as the panacea to all the evils of Pakistan. If Sharif resigns next month, will it rid us of all the evil Khan speaks of? What narrative would the spin doctors then feed the nation?

It is in the national interest that Imran Khan exhibits patience and works his way up through electoral politics. He should not repeat the same mistakes that the PML-N and Pakistan People’s Party have committed in the past. He should avoid reaching the same conclusions as them by going through a political exorcism of his own.


Raja Omer Shabbir
The writer is an Islamabad –based freelance columnist and professional services consultant. He can be reached on Twitter @raj_omer