The largest US-led joint military offensive in the Helmand province of Afghanistan, code named ‘Moshtarak’ is nearing its end. The assault was centered on the town of Marja, which comprises family compounds that are spread over miles of arid, deserted terrain.

The unique aspect of this offensive has been the way that the civilians were taken into confidence. For nearly a month leading up to the operation, residents of Marja were psychologically briefed to leave their homes for provincial capital, Lashkar Gah. One could see thousands and thousands of air dropped leaflets that littered around carrying the massage and warning that if they don’t leave Marja, then they must at least stay indoors after dark.

A number of meetings were held wherein Afghan and Nato military commanders briefed the village elders on what was to come and how best to stay safe. A number of spaces were earmarked also for the families in schools, camps and other public spaces in Lashkar Gah, should any family decide to vacate its home and shift in there for safety reasons.

The Taliban were not observed to have offered much of the expected resistance except in pockets to the assault, probably the terrain defied the hit and run concept of the Taliban strategy. For the time being the Taliban might have changed their places or mixed with the population to avoid their capture. The fact that the allied forces did not face any strong resistance, except a few skirmishes that also took lives, the offensive proved to be a near walk over in Marja.

This, however, does not indicate that the Taliban are no more present in the area and as such, one is likely to see off and on attacks on the foreign forces in and around Marja. A stalemate in the ground situation, therefore, is what we are going to see for some time.

The Taliban are the diehard freedom fighters, motivated, self-assured and confident of victory against the occupation forces. Time is on their side and they remain in a defiant mood against the presence of foreigners in their homeland.

While the efforts are afoot by the Karzai government to pacify the Taliban and bring them in the political mainstream, like the one reported in Maldives prior the London Conference, the Helmand offensive tantamount to a tangent with what had been decided in the ‘London Conference’. The offensive also runs contrary to the statement of US Defence Secretary’s acceptance of Taliban as part of Afghan political spectrum.

Why Helmand’s Marja town was chosen for the assault? Was it that it is considered strategically important district? There are many theories that have come up on the same. Some opine that the province’s geographic location gives the province a strategic importance as the US and the allies want to establish a base there to over look the Iranian military activities and Chinese growing influence in the Indian ocean and their use of Pakistani port of Gwadar.

As per a Taliban Commander Mullah Akhund, the British forces are bringing a large amount of equipment to the area and have started extracting Uranium there and British transport planes land and take off from this area several times every day. Then there are people who say that the real reason for the Helmand offensive was that the Taliban present here were considered more vulnerable as compared to the ones in the areas bordering North Waziristan. Then there is a school of thought that says that it tantamount to ethnic cleansing of Pashtuns from Helmand. The Afghan National Army (ANA) comprise 3 to 5 percent of the people from south, mostly Dari speakers, rather than Pashtuns. Though 42 percent of Afghan population is of Pashtuns yet less than 30 percent of them form part of the ANA.

Compared with the Tajiks who form 25 percent of the population in Afghanistan, 41 percent of them form part of the Afghan National Army. So there are apprehensions amongst Afghans that Operation Moshtarak and beyond would sow the seeds of civil war once the foreign troops are pulled out.

Once Marja is cleared of Taliban, the western strategy would be to hold it out and start the rebuilding process. There is likely hood that many of the Taliban would cross over into Pakistan’s Balochistan province from the porous borders linking Dalbandin and Chaghai.

Though on more than one occasion assurances have been given to the Pakistani authorities by the Nato and Isaf commanders that measures would be taken to ensure that no cross over movement into Pakistani areas takes place.

It is imperative that Pakistan’s western borders remain peaceful and friendly during the fresh offences and afterwards and as such the Afghan occupational forces must trust and provide it space to maneuver to ensure that Pakistan is not destabilized in any way as a fall out of these offensives.

Pakistan has already suffered from the Afghan fiasco tremendously as compared to any other country in the world. It deployed up to 1,47000 soldiers in the Fata areas and elsewhere to arrest the situation as a repercussion of Afghan fall out. It has suffered 8,785 casualties, eight times more than that suffered by the coalition of 43 countries in Afghanistan.

The deployment of its own forces to this magnitude despite a real and challenging threat from its eastern neighbour based on its capabilities and not intentions, its history, the outstanding issues including Kashmir, the outrageous squeeze on water flows into Pakistan and lately its Pakistan-centric ‘Cold Start’ Strategy, speaks of the resilience that the Pakistan Army enjoys without taking the eyes off the eastern borders.

Operation Moshtarak is the start of the end game. The end game is to create conditions in Afghanistan that would afford the United States and its allies to quit Afghanistan in a manner that may not be categorized in history as shameful.

The Marja offensive is the first one of many more to come soon. Much of the trumpeted US surge is yet to materialize and would likely take three to four months more. The interim period may be utilized in holding on to Helmand with concurrent development of infrastructure therein the province.

The next stop after Helmand will most likely be Qandahar, a province that is considered strong-hold of Taliban. It will be that critical time for Pakistan as around 25 million Pashtuns live on this side of Pakistani border and have family relationships with Pashtuns on the other side of the border. That will probably be the blow back time for Pakistan, which must be taken care of in advance by closely monitoring the developments in that area.