Gathering Storm? By Najam Sethi

Call for Change · #1 Monday, July 11, 2011

Gathering Storm? By Najam Sethi

President Asif Zardari's recent partnership with the PMLQ and an electoral victory in AJK spell out the contours of a successful political strategy to protect his flanks in parliament after the exit of coalition partners JUI and MQM and dig in for the next round of elections 18 months hence. Indeed, in a rare display of bravado, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has "welcomed" the opposition's attempt to band against the government, pooh-poohing its ability to besiege and overthrow his government. Equally, President Zardari does not seem too bothered by the MQM's latest parting of ways on the issue of elections to two AJK seats in Karachi and its adjoining areas. Indeed, PPP sources are wont to speculate that all will soon be hunky-dory between the constantly bickering and estranged allies, thanks to President Zardari's "stooping-to-conquer" tactics of political compromise to keep his erstwhile flock from straying into the arms of the opposition.

But four recent developments may yet reduce President Zardari's "achievements" to zilch. Conceivably, they could turn out to be potent harbingers of renewed instability, and even regime change, by year's end in Pakistan.

The first is Nawaz Sharif's announced decision to push for an election before March 2012 and, in pursuit of that objective, to open the doors of his party to estranged former friends from various runaway factions of the PML as well as prickly current foes like the JUI and MQM. Ishaq Dar's dash to Karachi and Shahbaz Sharif's hop-over in London to try and stitch up the MQM is a step in that direction. And even though Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and Munawar Hussain of the Jamaat-i-Islami are still sounding Holier-Than-Thou, the PMLN's option of joining forces with them for a one point "kick-out-the-government" agenda is not likely to be blithely spurned. To be sure, the PMLN's decision is belated but there is sufficient mass alienation and discontent in the air to give it momentum if a constellation of "other" factors enters the equation.

The second factor is the Supreme Court's decision to press ahead with challenging the government's right to appoint the DG FIA and DG NAB, and to insist on giving the independent FIA prosecutor, Zafar Qureshi, unrestricted freedom to prosecute Moonis Elahi, the scion of the Chaudhries of Gujarat, for corruption and embezzlement. The matter of the appointment of an independent Chief Election Commissioner is also hanging fire and the SC is seriously examining the consequences of declaring the results of 24 recent by-elections null and void because at least 35 million voters were bogus if the government continues to ignore its advice and orders. Therefore, if the government remains immovable in the face of an irresistible SC, it is only a matter of time before contempt charges are hurled against senior government officials all the way up to the office of the prime minister. In the event of a gridlock between the executive and the judiciary, anything could happen - the superior judiciary could resign en mass or order the army to implement its orders. This could pose insurmountable problems for the Zardari regime in the midst of a developing storm on the streets by the combined opposition.

The third factor is the rapidly deteriorating Pak-US relationship which could have a destabilizing impact on the domestic situation in Pakistan. Following President Obama's recent review of policy goals in Afghanistan, the US is increasingly inclined to resort to unilateral counter-terrorism measures inside Pakistan. But another "boots-on-ground operation" that seemingly violates Pakistan's "sovereignty" or eliminates any of its core political "assets" could break the fraying thread of US-Pak relations. Amidst an unofficial freeze on US economic and military aid to Pakistan, the domestic civil-military nationalist backlash of such an operation could uproot the Zardari regime in the presence of the other factors listed above. It is ominous, under the circumstances, that US officials have told the New York Times that they have evidence that the ISI, the bete noire of the CIA, Pentagon and Congress, actually kidnapped, tortured and killed Saleem Shahzad, the journalist who wrote about increasing radical Islamist sentiment in the armed forces of Pakistan and the agency's "double-dealing" strategy vis a vis the US.

The fourth factor is the declining health of the national economy and the discontent spreading from increasing energy shortages, food inflation and unemployment. Two people were killed from police action following energy-shortage related riots in Mianwali last week, a harbinger of worse to follow. Another major flood with its attendant woes and media lashings during the monsoon would definitely stretch the government on the mat. The refusal of the IMF to bail out the yawning budgetary deficit, partly on the promptings of a disgruntled and frustrated US administration and partly on the intrinsic demerits of the Pakistan government's various financial slip-ups, could be the final nail in the PPP government's coffin. Therefore Mr Zardari should not ignore the darkening clouds presaging a stormy downpour.

Editorial: Gathering Storm? by Najam Sethi

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