Bang or whimper?

Dr Tahir ul Qadri continues to hog the headlines. In ten days, however, he has progressively diluted his demands under relentless media scrutiny. Consider.

Originally he insisted that the army and judiciary were "stake holders" who had a right to inform any caretaker government. Now he is ready to accept only a "consultative" role for them. Originally he insisted elections could be delayed under Article 254 of the Constitution. But now he isn't. Originally he focused on breaking the "monopoly of the corrupt and incompetent two-party system" via accountability and electoral reform. Now he has limited himself to further empowering the Election Commission only. Originally he clarified he wasn't seeking any sort of military intervention. Now he is warning the army not to obey any orders of the elected government to thwart his long march. Originally he pointed to a caretaker government of technocrats led by a non-parliamentarian professional in Italy which had run the government for 13 months in order to cleanse the system before calling new elections, implying the same route could be legitimately followed in Pakistan with him in the saddle. But now he is referring to the Egyptian model where a prolonged insurrectionary situation in Tahrir Square in Cairo paved the way for a supreme military council to depose Hosni Mubarak and oversee a new round of elections.

All this boils down to one objective: create a "situation" in Islamabad that compels the military to seize the initiative and fashion a political transition that knocks out the PPP and PMLN. Will Dr Qadri succeed in his agenda?

The MQM has thrown its weight behind him. But it has a history of black mailing its allies to achieve political ends. Having benefited enormously from its 5-year alliance with the PPP, the MQM is threatening to part ways on the eve of elections unless the PPP gives it a say in the establishment of a caretaker government in Sindh to protect its electoral interests. If Mr Zardari scratches Altaf Hussain's back, Dr Qadri will have to rest content with empty rhetoric on January 14. If he doesn't, the MQM may send a few thousand supporters to Islamabad to keep face while keeping its options open. Mr Rehman Malik's departure for London for a chat with Altaf Bhai is significant.

The PMLQ Chaudries have had a purposive photo-op with Dr Qadri for leveraging their stakes with the PPP with an eye out for a wink or nod from the establishment. But they are not ready to join the long march to Islamabad. A timely statement from the ISPR disavowing any GHQ interest in Dr Qadri's adventure has also put paid to some conspiracy theories that seemed to spur him on.

The most significant statement has come from Imran Khan's PTI which says it will not brook any delay in elections or join Dr Qadri's long march. Since Imran Khan's angry young supporters hankering for revolutionary change are now excluded from mass agitation in Islamabad, the prospect of an insurrectionary replication of Tahrir Square looks remote.

In short, no one is ready to place all his eggs in Dr Qadri's basket.

Left to their own devices, Dr Qadri's Minhajul Quran Barelvi supporters are unlikely cannon fodder material. Also, it is one thing to march to Islamabad for two days and disperse after a rally but radically something else to squat or rally for days on end until their demands are met.

The PPP government has also announced that it intends to divert the rally to a peripheral park instead of allowing it to pollute the heart of the capitol. It is also entirely conceivable that the PMLN Punjab government will make transport difficult for Dr Qadri's supporters from across the province and also nudge other Islamist groups to make statements against him.

Whoever launched Dr Qadri - and it certainly isn't the international community - has either had a change of heart in view of the media backlash to his enterprise and is not leaning on PTI or PMLQ or JUI to support him, or only intended it as an exercise in testing the waters. It is no secret that the prospect of either Mr Zardari retaining coalition-power or losing it to Nawaz Sharif is anathema to the establishment. This is because the establishment wants a strong, stable and competent government to take ownership of the war against the Taliban, support the end game strategy in Afghanistan and turn the economy around to pay for the military costs of doing so.

An announcement of a date for dissolution of parliament and holding of elections, followed by the naming of a consensus caretaker prime minister, will end the prevailing state of uncertainty and take the wind out of Dr Qadri's sails. Therefore the probability is that Dr Qadri's drone attack will peter out with a whimper instead of a bang, and Dr Qadri will end up as the main collateral damage.

http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta3/...0130104&page=1