NASA: China could be the next to moon


China's surging space program could launch explorers on the moon before Americans make a lunar return, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told a congressional oversight panel Thursday.

Griffin offered the assessment at a budget hearing before the House Science and Technology Committee. The panel offered bipartisan support for an increase in spending on NASA's Orion moonship, which is falling behind schedule, as well as on unmanned science projects and aeronautical research.

Earlier this month, funding woes pushed the first flight of NASA's Orion back to March 2015, a six-month slide. That prompted a round of questions from Rep Ken Calvert, R-Calif., on whether the United States might lose its lead in space to China.

"How good is their space program? ... Do you think they have an opportunity to get to the moon before we do?" Calvert asked.

Griffin, who toured some of China's space installations last year and met with leading scientists and engineers, told the panel that China, with its strong economy, is capable of a come-from-behind lunar landing.

"I cannot speculate and won't speculate on what China's intensions are. I just don't know that," said Griffin. "As a matter of technical capability and political will, if the Chinese choose to do so, they can mount a lunar mission within a reasonable number of years, say a decade."

Just to be sure he heard correctly, Calvert asked the space agency chief if China's explorers could reach the moon before 2020, the date that President Bush directed NASA to achieve three years ago.

"Of course, yes sir. It's possible," Griffin replied. "They could be there before we return."

No cooperative venture

China joined the United States and Russia as the only nations capable of launching astronauts in 2003 when one of its military officers conducted a daylong solo mission in Earth orbit. In 2005, China launched two astronauts on a five-day mission.
China has joined other nations for discussions with NASA on its future lunar exploration plans. However, the Bush administration has ruled out a cooperative venture because of differences about the control of missile technology and other issues. Tensions rose in January when a Chinese anti-satellite missile launch scattered debris into the orbits of the space station and other satellites.

Comparisons to Gemini


Griffin compared China's capabilities to NASA's Gemini program successes of the mid-1960s. The 10 Gemini flights in 1965 and 1966 schooled NASA in spacewalks, orbital rendezvous and key skills to reach the moon's surface in July 1969 for the first of six landings.
"The intrinsic capabilities of their equipment is a little bit better than what we had during Project Gemini, but their accomplishments have been at about that level," said Griffin. "When you have a chance to interact with Chinese engineers and scientists it's abundantly clear they need take a back seat to no one."

China has about 200,000 people working on its space program, about three times the number in the United States, the space agency chief told lawmakers. At the same time, China's economic prowess is about twice that of America's in the early 1960s, when President Kennedy committed the United States to reaching the moon before its Cold War rival, the former Soviet Union, did.

Without addressing China specifically, lawmakers on House and Senate oversight committees sounded bipartisan alarm Thursday over NASA's proposed $17.3 billion budget for 2008.

They blamed the White House for the difficulties that forced Griffin earlier this month to delay the inaugural launch of the Orion moon ship until March 2015. When Bush announced the lunar initiative in January 2004, he instructed NASA to plan for a first launch by 2014. When Griffin became administrator, he projected a maiden flight in 2012.

"I'm afraid NASA is headed for a train wreck if things don't change," said U.S. Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., who chairs the House Committee on Science and Technology.

The White House has asked Congress for $2.7 billion less in NASA funding than Bush pledged when he unveiled the lunar initiative in January 2004, according to Gordon. The shortfall was made worse when Griffin discovered the shuttle and space station budgets had been underfunded by $3.8 billion through 2010.

Seeking additional $1 billion

The oversight forced NASA to shift money from Orion development as well as popular unmanned science programs and aeronautical research.
In the Senate on Thursday, Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., who chairs the Commerce, Justice and Science Appropriations Subcommittee, called for a bipartisan legislative summit with the White House to boost space spending. Mikulski plans to join Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, in seeking an additional $1 billion in 2008 spending for NASA.

In his House testimony, Griffin defended Bush's $17.3 billion request for 2008, and he noted that it is 3 percent more than the previous year's submittal.

When control of the Congress shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats in January, spending at NASA and other agencies was held to 2006 levels.

mark.carreau@chron.com