PTI-Minhaj alliance?

February 8th, 2013

When Dr Tahirul Qadri was holding Islamabad hostage to his demand for a prolonged period of caretaker rule, Imran Khan, despite agreeing with most of Dr Qadri’s agenda, wisely kept his party at a distance from the street protests. That distance is narrowing with every passing day. Senior leaders of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) met with Dr Qadri on February 6 and held a joint press conference where the two essentially formed an alliance, although they stopped short of calling it that. Both Dr Qadri and the PTI want the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to be dissolved by the Supreme Court and for new members to be appointed. We already know that Dr Qadri wants a caretaker government to be formed with the input of the military and the judiciary, which is not in line with the guidelines laid down by the Constitution. Now, Imran Khan has joined him.

The details of how the ECP is to be constituted are very clearly laid down in the Constitution. The government, in consultation with the leader of the opposition, appoints the members of the ECP. This way, all the people’s representatives get their say and have a chance to approve the ECP. Dr Qadri is not a part of the process since he is not in parliament. Indeed, as someone who has Canadian citizenship, he is not even eligible to stand for parliamentary elections. Imran Khan, who decided to boycott the 2008 elections, does not have a role to play in choosing members of the ECP either. He cannot simply nullify the process because he does not like the results. To change the composition of the ECP at the whims of unelected politicians like Imran Khan and the likes of Dr Qadri would have a chilling effect on the holding of free elections rather than allowing the estimable Fakhruddin G Ebrahim to continue.

The PTI is likely going down this dangerous path because it realises that its popularity levels have fallen in recent months, with many defections from the party and a precipitous drop in enthusiasm. Dr Qadri, meanwhile, just wants to continue hogging the limelight. Likely, the Supreme Court will not interfere with the workings of the ECP. To do so, would strike a great blow against the democratic process that could well harm the holding of free elections.

The battle in Tirah Valley

February 8th, 2013

The battle in the remote Tirah Valley of Khyber Agency is being described as a turf war. That turf war between banned militants has, in the last two weeks, killed dozens and displaced 2,500 families, according to a February 6 report. Old men, women and children have walked for days in harsh, freezing conditions without food or adequate shelter, while members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Ansarul Islam, the Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and the pro-government peace militia of Qamarkhel, battled it out for control of land that very clearly has one owner: the state of Pakistan. Sadly, there were some who, while fleeing for safety, lost their lives in the process — but who shall we hold accountable for their deaths? Where is the state, the writ of law in all this mess?

We know the state wanted to wrest control from the militants when it ordered a military offensive in 2004 in the tribal regions. The Tirah Valley is a specially prized possession given its location, nestled between Afghanistan and the tribal agencies. On January 29, 23 militants of the TTP and the LI were reportedly killed when Pakistani jets bombed their hideouts in the valley. However, the fighting between the militants continued and till the writing of this editorial, has not shown signs of abating, so something is clearly very wrong. The priority is twofold: to declare Tirah Valley ‘war affected’, get the internally displaced persons (IDPs) into shelters in Jalozai (where there is a camp) and other places where families are fleeing since many have gone to Khyber, Peshawar, Orakzai, etc. The government must ensure the families’ registration, their well-being and health and that their displacement is not a long drawn-out affair; which means that the law and order situation in Tirah Valley has to be addressed with a steely will. A failure to do so will only result in the creation of more IDPs, and more unemployed people, more children not going to schools and more disillusioned people that cannot contribute to their families, their community and ultimately their country.

Dirty games

February 8th, 2013

According to a recently released report by the US-based Open Society Foundations (OSF), Pakistan is among 54 countries which helped the CIA carry out secret detentions and measures aimed at placing detainees outside the reach of the justice system after the 9/11 attacks. Besides Pakistan, the countries listed include Egypt, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, which have faced terrorism on their own soil, as well as key US allies, including the UK, Australia, Canada and other Western nations. Only Canada has apologised for its actions.

The involvement of Pakistan in CIA-led detentions and interrogations has been commented on before. This report details the extent of this role, including the capture, detention, interrogation, torture and abuse of individuals. The country also permitted its airspace and airports to be used for these operations, with detainees at a secret detention centre run by the ISI in Karachi, also claiming they were interrogated by US and British intelligence officials. They have also said they were tortured.

While much of what happened is already known to us and has been brought up by rights groups based inside the country, the OSF report remains shocking. It should also be noted that there has been little discussion on such practices in parliament, even though there is reason to suspect they may be continuing. It is very possibly not a coincidence that the problem of missing persons surfaced soon after agency involvement with the CIA. The entire role of our agencies in the ‘dirty war’ waged after 9/11 must be made public. There needs to be a parliamentary overview of their actions committed both in the past and in the present. It has become absolutely essential that the rule of law be followed, illegal detention centres closed down and agencies held responsible for what they do. The lack of accountability can only encourage abuse of various kinds and the evidence we have suggests such abuse is continuing across Pakistan — adding to the problems in combating terrorism.

Why Pakistan should not talk to the TTP

February 9th, 2013

There has always been a lingering suspicion that the PML-N has a somewhat soft spot for some of the more extreme elements in society. The party has been seen as too close for comfort to some sectarian organisations in Punjab and its condemnation of the Taliban has usually fallen short of being full-throated. Furthermore, the fact of the matter is that the founder of the party owes his entry into politics to the greatest supporter of extremist groups, General Ziaul Haq. Then there was Nawaz Sharif’s own rule as prime minister, where he tried to get Sharia made the law of the land and have himself elevated to the position of “ameer-ul-momineen” but his government was dismissed before that could materialise.

Now, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif has staked out a position on the prospect of holding negotiations with the Taliban and he is firmly in favour of the idea. He wants the government to take the idea of talks very seriously and immediately work to initiate them. At the same time, he has refused the TTP’s request that he act as a guarantor for the talks, saying that given the past record of this government he cannot insure their participation. This is a typical Nawaz Sharif manoeuvre. He is trying to come across as a man of peace while blaming the government for its violent and double-crossing tendencies. Yes, this government has been reluctant to hold talks with the Taliban, but that is because they were burned soon after taking power. The PPP and its allies had been very keen to negotiate with the Taliban in Swat but once those broke down it realised that the military option was the only way to go. In fact, several peace deals in the past with the Taliban failed because they did not honour them and used them to consolidate and regroup.

Simply calling for negotiations is not enough. Those asking for that must answer some difficult questions. They should be asked whether the TTP’s past refusal to follow agreements signed with the government do not give cause to pause before advocating such a policy measure. Also, what kind of message is being given to the ordinary Pakistani — that if you indulge in violence and wage a war of terrorism against the country and state, you will be rewarded with a talks offer. By definition, a negotiation involves a certain amount of give and take. What exactly should be given to the Taliban given the fact that in the past, if a little bit was conceded they took a mile? Are they willing to hand over the tribal areas in return for a promise of peace that is unlikely to be kept? Obviously the TTP will refuse to disarm before negotiations so there is no way of preventing them from continuing to carry out attacks. Furthermore, those arguing for talks and criticising the government for being unwilling to negotiate ignore the unfortunate reality that it is the military which is the ultimate power broker and that no talks can be held unless it agrees. In that context, the army chief’s recent remarks that Pakistan’s number one enemy is now internal, i.e., militants, doesn’t tie up well with this push for talks.

The fact of the matter is that those who think that the militants will lay down their arms and blend in with mainstream society once the Americans leave Afghanistan or if there are talks, are sadly mistaken. The past has shown that this is unlikely to happen because the overarching aim of the militants, while fighting the Americans and Western forces in Afghanistan and other parts of the Muslim world, is to impose their own version of Sharia. This is something that those pushing for talks needs to understand and perhaps they are either being naïve or are sympathetic to the cause of the Taliban.

The Taliban is a force that must be defeated, not accommodated. That will only be possible if there is unity among political parties on this issue. Terrorists who have killed thousands of Pakistani civilians, soldiers, police and other law-enforcement personnel need to be dealt with an iron hand and defeated — that’s the way the rest of the world does it.

Games of rule

February 9th, 2013

It has now been nearly a month since governor’s rule was imposed in Balochistan, following a protest by the Hazara community over the massacre of over 100 of its members in twin bomb attacks. A campaign by the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazal to have a new chief minister put in place continues, with uncertainty over whether this move will succeed or not. The question though is, what has governor’s rule achieved in Balochistan, and has anything been done under Nawab Zulfikar Magsi’s period in power to improve the situation for people in the province? Is the threatened Hazara community any better off than before? The answers probably lie almost entirely in the negative column. Incidents of lawlessness have continued and the Hazaras have effectively barricaded themselves in the areas lying around Alamdaar Road — where the majority of Hazaras live. No one is allowed in, for fear that the person may be a spy and fewer Hazaras dare venture out. The fear they have faced for years, continues.

The same is true for many other residents of Quetta. Tensions remain high, streets are deserted as the sun sets and from various parts of the province, news of more bodies found in streets come in. Certainly, there has been no sea-change as far as law and order goes, and no evidence that any kind of strategy has been put in place to bring one about.

The reality also is that, in the present circumstances, change seems unlikely to come. Control of Balochistan is, after all, not in civilian hands. The FC patrols the province, calls the shots and is not accountable to the government. The hatred for this force among the people only adds to the problems and it seems obvious that unless genuine civilian rule can be established, the problems of Balochistan will not go away. In that province, the issue is not one of competent governance alone — with Magsi’s track record on this count being a somewhat dubious one — but also of bringing all forces together and persuading them to help save a province already in chaos from falling into a still greater state of disarray as violence continues to rip it apart.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The execution of Afzal Guru

February 10th, 2013

India executed Mohammed Afzal Guru, a former fruit seller, for his role in the 2001 parliament bombing, on the morning of February 9. Guru was found guilty of conspiring with and sheltering the militants who attacked the parliament building in New Delhi. He was also held guilty of being a member of the banned jihadi group Jaish-e-Mohammed.

This is the second execution India has carried out since 2004. The first was the hanging of the sole gunman, Ajmal Kasab, caught alive following the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in November last year. Guru was hanged at Tihar Jail. Guru’s hanging is controversial because his case was hotly contested by him, along with several activists who claimed that the case against him was fabricated. Political activist Arundhati Roy in an article in Outlook in 2006, also noted inconsistencies in his case, including a remark by the Supreme Court which had said that there was no direct evidence to suggest that he was a member of any terrorist group.

The two hangings can also be seen as India taking decisive action against those who wish to harm the Indian state, an action long demanded by many in the country, and perhaps, most strongly by right wing Hindu groups. However, there is a strong perception, even in India that the case against Guru was not watertight. Hence, in such a situation, to hang a person is likely to provoke protest and strong outrage, something that was seen in Indian-held Kashmir immediately following the hanging.

Inevitably, the Kashmiris’ sense of alienation will increase after this, and this was perhaps pre-empted by New Delhi as it effectively placed the Valley under a curfew. As summed up by Syed Ali Geelani, “his (Afzal Guru’s) hanging once again proves that the Kashmiris can never expect justice from India”. By hanging Guru, India is, in fact, inflaming the very sentiment it wishes to suppress, for the tag “unjust and cruel” is one it can ill-afford to wear in its aspirations to become a world leader. Furthermore, it only serves to reinforce the perception among most Kashmiris that when it comes to them, India always has a double standard.

Monetary policy review

February 10th, 2013

No one likes to admit failure. No one likes to accept defeat. But it seems that is exactly what the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has done. After going out on a limb and reducing the policy rate by over 450 basis points over the past 18 months, it seems the regulator has admitted that the strategy has failed.

In the latest monetary policy announcement, the regulator has kept the policy rate, or in simpler terms, the interest unchanged at 9.5 per cent. Consumer Price Index inflation went to a low of 6.9 per cent last year but has now once again surged to 8.1 per cent. Core inflation is also inching back up and it is very likely that it will have hit double digits by the time the next monetary policy announcement is due.

The basic premise that the SBP had adopted was quite simple. It never openly admitted to this but by drastically reducing the interest rate, it had hoped that banks would find it unattractive to lend to the government and, in doing so, had hoped to achieve two things. On the one hand, it had hoped that this might have some kind of a restrictive effect on runaway government borrowing. On the other hand, it had hoped that the banks would instead start lending to the private sector.

It has always been obvious that the task of containing the size of fiscal deficit and government’s borrowing requirements from the banking system is becoming more and more difficult, but it is now equally obvious that despite all its efforts, the SBP has been unable to gain any kind of control over this.

The year-on-year growth in broad money, on average, has been almost 18 per cent against average GDP growth of less than four per cent. This has left a very large gap for inflationary pressures and the signs are already there with inflation once again creeping towards double digits. Many fear that energy costs are not accurately represented in the calculation of inflation, which is why inflation is not already in double digits.

In comparison, growth fiscal borrowings from scheduled banks was 41.3 per cent on January 25. Over the last four years, fiscal borrowings from the scheduled banks for budgetary support have grown by an average of around 60 per cent.

The average growth in credit to private businesses, on the other hand, has only been four per cent during the same period. The end result is that the domestic debt has risen by 25.6 per cent on average, while private fixed investment has contracted by 9.4 per cent in the economy.

The SBP, without actually saying so, has admitted failure in its attempt to kick-start expansion of private sector credit and to trigger investment and growth as a result of cuts in the interest rate. This rationale had been its main argument for lowering the interest rate.

That rationale was absent and quietly swept under the rug in the latest monetary policy announcement.

However, it would be unfair to place the entire blame for the lack of private sector credit expansion on the central bank. Other factors like energy shortages, the poor law and order situation and the unwillingness of industrialists to invest in this situation, or for banks to lend in a stagnant economy are probably more to blame for the non-existent demand for credit.

The unchanged interest rate was not a surprise for anyone. What did catch many by surprise was the narrowing of the interest corridor by 50 basis points from seven to 6.5 per cent and the indication that the SBP was going to limit Open Market Operations (OMO) that have been a thorn of contention between the IMF and the Pakistan government, which wants a new agreement. In the past year alone, the regulator has effectively pumped close to half a trillion rupees into the market through OMOs.

The indication that this may be coming to an end could be a condition set by the IMF if there is to be any chance of a new agreement. But whether that really is the case, is anybody’s guess.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Days of alliance

February 11th, 2013

As elections draw nearer, we will no doubt hear about various electoral alliances or looser ‘understandings’. The agreement reportedly reached between the PPP and the PML-Q is important in the overall election picture. While the two parties — despite their considerable ideological differences — are, of course, partners in government, there had been some doubts over the formation of a new election-time alliance, mainly due to recent tensions. These essentially stemmed from the PML-Q’s concerns that Manzoor Wattoo, heading the PPP in Punjab, was trying to break away their members and draw them into the PPP. However, the matter seems to have been resolved.

The PML-Q, after a meeting between its leaders and the prime minister, has stated it has now reached an agreement with the PPP on an alliance and how to adjust seat allocations for this. The matter is to be finalised in a meeting between the PML-Q and the president of the country, though information secretary for the PML-Q seems confident this will go through. The deal involves giving seats on which candidates from one party had won before to that party again and deciding on the stronger candidate for other seats. The deal that has been reached will boost the PPP in Punjab, the province where the PML-Q holds strength and sees itself as a key challenger to the PML-N. This is particularly significant as recent polls have shown a rise in the PML-N’s popularity on a countrywide basis. This would suggest a PPP-PML-Q alliance could come in very handy indeed.

The PPP’s other two allies in government, the MQM and the ANP, have both stated they will contest the election independently. This makes the agreement reached between the two major parties all the more important with a major impact likely on the polls when the process begins and in the days after it, as the time to form a new government approaches. The contours of the coming electoral contest are then becoming clearer. We can now only hope it will be held as planned.

Yet another strike

February 11th, 2013

In the last few years, barely a day has gone by without some form of political violence happening in Karachi. The main political parties in the city, despite being part of an alliance at the centre, are all territorial rivals in Karachi and so, are constantly at one another’s throats. All the parties also have armed gangs to back them up, thereby making the city even more dangerous. As is inevitable, on some days, the violence gets out of hand, leading to a call for a strike. Conveniently, a strike is almost always called for a Friday, giving Karachiites a three-day weekend. Unfortunately, no one accounts for how costly these regular days off are for the country’s financial hub.

Karachi now basically operates on a four-day workweek. Given the regular violence in the city, coupled with the outbreak of targeted killings, which upset one constituency or the other, every political faction in the city has a reason to regularly call for strikes. On top of that, they have the guns to back it up. Then, we have the regular federal and provincial holidays given to observe things like Kashmir Day. Given that we already go through so many days without work, the government should now stop announcing holidays unnecessarily. The toll this takes on our financial health is in billions of rupees, a sum the country can ill-afford.

Of course, ideally there would be no need for regular strikes. As quixotic as this wish may be, it is actually feasible in Karachi. All it requires is for each political party to respect their rivals’ territory and not try to expand its sphere of influence. On top of that, the three power brokers in the city — the PPP, the MQM and the ANP — all need to realise that Karachi simply cannot continue down this path to economic ruin. They will all need to sit down and hash out their problems. There is no reason they can peacefully coexist at the centre but constantly be at war in Karachi. The three parties need to purge their ranks of black sheep and pursue deweaponisation in earnest. Peace can only be achieved through a mutual desire to reduce violence and come to the negotiating table.

Stricter punishments

February 11th, 2013

The power of protests has borne some result in India whose cabinet last week approved stricter punishments for rapists, including the death penalty should a rape victim die, following the death of a gang-rape victim in New Delhi. If approved by President Pranab Mukherjee (and then parliament within six months), the law will see the doubling of the present sentence of gang rape to 20 years or a rapist can even be made to serve life without parole; if the rape victim dies or falls into a vegetative state, the rapist can receive the death penalty. Other crimes have also been added to this new legislation like voyeurism, acid attacks, trafficking of women and stalking, according to The New York Times.

However, not everyone is happy with how this law has been rushed into existence and how it advocates capital punishment at a time when most countries around the world are moving away from the death penalty. People fear that public sentiment was the driving force behind this law and that may set a precedent again. Indian penal law rarely exercises the death penalty; it executed its first prisoner in eight years last year, the surviving gunman from the 2008 Mumbai attack. Critics of this law argue that the government refused to recognise marital rape as a crime and that armed forces were omitted from being held accountable in this law. India’s law minister was quoted by reporters as saying that his government was motivated to take these steps so as to make women feel safer in the country. He should know that laws alone cannot and do not act as deterrents. This is especially if army officers, in Indian Kashmir for example, who have been accused by a leading independent Indian human rights organisation of committing human rights abuses including rape, are exempt from being tried under this law. Gender-based sensitivity must begin at home and at the primary level in schools. It must be evident in the media, among the police and the magistrates. Only then can women begin to feel a modicum of safety in society.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The end of the Swiss letter saga

February 12th, 2013

The prolonged saga over the writing of a letter to the Swiss authorities to reopen a case against President Asif Ali Zardari was always about power, not principle. Both the government and the Supreme Court had seemingly refused to compromise over a case that was sure to be never heard by the Swiss authorities. Eventually, after losing a prime minister, it was the government that gave in. Now we have confirmation of just how fruitless this protracted battle really was. As expected, the Swiss authorities have made it clear that they have no intention of reopening the case. The last five years of constitutional crises and political uncertainty, as anyone could have predicted, therefore, have all been for naught.

In a sense, the ruling PPP can now claim vindication even though the victory is a pyrrhic one. Some may say that there was no need for former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to be removed from office, especially since the government could have averted this scenario simply by writing the letter in the first place. We would have been spared not just the Gilani drama but also the legal woes of his successor, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf. One cannot help but feel that this is precisely what the PPP wanted, since the party can now campaign on a platform of victimhood and martyrdom. But the PPP’s gain has been the country’s loss, as we have had to bear the considerable expense and inconvenience of this ultimately meaningless struggle, not to mention the political instability that was caused.

Now that the Swiss case is finally dead and buried, it is time to move on. The true threat that democracy faces in the country comes from anti-democratic forces, not the PPP. That is where the focus of accountability should be redirected. The Swiss letter case was a battle of wills between two forces that have been hostile towards each other. That hostility should now end. Furthermore, all institutions of the state need to operate within the parameters of their constitutionally defined boundaries, or else, near anarchy may rise again.

Languishing bills

February 12th, 2013

As it nears the end of its five-year term, parliament will be remembered for passing some of the most consequential legislation amendments in our history. It has approved not only the Eighteenth, Nineteenth and Twentieth Amendments to the Constitution, it has also passed many much-needed bills on human rights issues. That does not mean, however, that its conduct has been beyond reproach. Among the stains on the National Assembly’s record is the fact that it allowed 176 private member bills to simply languish. It should go without saying that the National Assembly’s only essential task is to debate and vote on proposed bills. Being so negligent in this vital function reflects poorly on it.

That the bills which were not considered originated as private member bills actually makes it worse. A lot of times, private member bills come from women parliamentarians whose legislation does not get prioritised and may even be actively discouraged by their parties. Bringing such bills up for debate allows ignored questions like women’s and minorities’ rights to be debated. This helps decide where to cast our vote in the future. That there seems to be an understanding not to bring such bills up for a vote that transcends party lines only goes to show just how badly the initiative of private member bills is needed.

One way to solve this problem would be through a change to parliamentary rules. Right now, there is no time limit on how soon the National Assembly has to vote after a private member bill has been introduced. Parliamentary committees also do not have to present a report on these bills within a specified time. Parliament needs to set the same rules for private member bills as it has for other proposed legislation. There is no reason these bills should not receive the same importance as others. So long as bills have the requisite number of votes needed to pass, no other roadblocks and impediments should be put in the way.

Lahore Metro Bus Service

February 12th, 2013

As a general rule, Pakistan’s major cities are badly in need of major public transport projects. The overcrowding, pollution and inconvenience caused by the absence of buses and trains have led to chaos. In the abstract, then, Punjab government’s Lahore Metro Bus Service project, which has now been inaugurated, is a step in the right direction. Modern public transport is the need of the hour in our cities and this was the first concerted project to turn that into a reality. This does not mean, however, that the project should simply be praised and not subject to greater scrutiny. The first issue is one of cost. Although the official cost of the bus service project is Rs30 billion, there are many projections which say it could be higher.

Then there is the question of maintenance. Right now, not all of the 45 buses are in working condition and many of the escalators are not functional. Obviously the provincial government was in a rush to inaugurate the project. With elections coming up, it wanted a major development coup, which would be the bedrock of its re-election campaign. Also, the provincial government should account for all the businesses that were affected by the creation of the bus routes and provide proof that they have been compensated for their losses.

It is unfortunate that even major development projects in Pakistan are carried out on an ad hoc basis. Before the PML-N government came into power in Punjab, the PML-Q had done a feasibility study on creating a light rail system in Lahore. Those plans were scrapped as soon as the PML-N was voted into office. How do we know that a new provincial government won’t do the same after the next elections? The PML-N will also have to answer the charge that most of its development is Lahore-centric. That aside, this should be a worthy public transport model for Pakistan’s other large cities to emulate.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Defending drones

February 13th, 2013

Ultimately, the most serious challenges to US drone policy will not come from the protests of international human rights organisations or public denunciations by the governments in whose territories these strikes are carried out. The US has always been resistant to outside criticism of its policies, and such criticism has never, in the past, forced a policy rethink. Anti-drone voices also fall short when it comes to suggesting an alternative to drone strikes, expect perhaps by arguing that conflict itself should be avoided, which is an unrealistic view at best and utopian at worst. Moreover, the countries in which drone strikes are carried out, like Pakistan, protest only for domestic public consumption while privately encouraging the strikes and even allowing the use of their territories for bases from which the drone strikes are carried out.

If any checks will thus be imposed on the use of drones by the United States, it will most likely be as a result of domestic pressure exerted upon the state through the US judicial system. This is the context in which the justice department’s leaked 16-page document providing a legal justification for strikes on American citizens must be viewed. This document is a shorter, declassified version of a 2010 Justice department memo drafted to justify the killing of Anwar Awlaki, a US citizen and alleged al Qaeda member, in a 2011 drone strike. The Justice department document was likely drafted in response to, or in anticipation of, a suit filed by Awlaki’s father against his son’s inclusion in the CIA’s ‘kill list’. While conducting drone strikes on foreign citizens in foreign countries is apparently not an issue, it seems the US government is cognisant of the potential can of worms it opens when targeting US citizens who have been deemed “imminent threats”. The memo itself basically states the obvious: if you’re an al Qaeda member plotting to attack the United States or its citizens, and if arresting you is impossible, then you may be legally targeted.

Beyond its legal implications for the United States, this document also unwittingly provides a rationale for other states to use similar legal justifications for targeting their own citizens in foreign territories — something that may return to haunt the US in years to come.

Nuclear reactions

February 13th, 2013

The presence of Iran on the world’s list of nuclear states has been a sore point for years with the US and its allies. The argument runs that Iran is an ‘irresponsible’ state, given to making threatening comments directed against the US and countries closely affiliated with it. But does this argument really hold any weight, does it really make any sense? Also on a purely moral basis, why should certain nations be allowed to maintain huge arsenals of nuclear weapons, while others are rebuked for doing so? Is there any way of saying if Washington is really more responsible than Tehran? This cannot after all be a scientific measure, and in its time Washington has been guilty of many actions that would not be considered responsible.

The broader issue of nuclear weapons and their nature, of course, exists. It can, logically enough, be argued that these weapons are inherently immoral. Indeed, we just need to look at the aftermath of the bombing of Hiroshima at the end of World War II, or the lingering after-effects of the nuclear leak at the Chernobyl plant in the Ukraine in 1986, or the more recent one in Japan in 2011 to be persuaded of this. The images from these places remind us of just what nuclear weapons do; the kind of prolonged suffering they inflict. They should not be a part of our world.

But, of course, this rule should then be equitably applied. The same principle should hold true for every nation – whether or not it is a US ally. The singling out of Iran is simply a demonstration of bias, given the number of countries which hold nukes. The strategies used have, in fact, turned Iran into a pariah state, and this is possibly the most dangerous thing of all. More rationality needs to be shown when addressing the delicate matter of Iran’s nuclear weapons, and more equality demonstrated towards other nations – even while at a broader level a stronger global campaign is needed against all nuclear weapons, no matter which nation they belong to.

Becoming a fiscal pariah

February 13th, 2013

For the first time in the past few years, Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities have come down to $65.8 billion — a decrease of $600 million.

However, the fact is that all is not what it seems to be. We have not suddenly adopted stricter fiscal discipline and started paying off our debts so efficiently that our liabilities are going down.

There are a few other reasons for this. One aspect is the fall of the US dollar against most other currencies. This has resulted in windfall gains — because Pakistan holds debt in about 20 currencies — a lot of which were also wiped out because the rupee was one of the few currencies that did not strengthen against the dollar.

One other reason — and perhaps, one with more far-reaching implications — is the gradual reduction in annual budgetary support by financial institutions like the Asian Development Bank (ADB), following in the footsteps of institutions like the World Bank, which has stopped budgetary disbursements pending a Letter of Assessment about the health of Pakistan’s economy by the IMF. The IMF is not likely to issue this letter.

The ADB has also stopped project disbursements until Pakistan completes the project initiation process.

Simplistically put, the reduction in foreign loans is a good thing. However, a fiscal or monetary system is anything but simple. Pakistan relies on foreign loans for pretty much everything from development spending, to project financing, to bolstering its foreign exchange reserves and most of all, to ensure it can meet its debt servicing requirements. And now, as external funding seems to be drying up — historically lenders have been providing a budgetary cushion of $3-4 billion a year — our forex reserves are under threat and the last quarter of the current fiscal year will be a very critical period. Debt servicing costs will continue to rise as a halt in the slide of the rupee is not expected. It is also expected that interest rates will no longer fall, they might actually increase, which will also increase the cost of debt financing.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Not out of the woods yet

February 14th, 2013

The rupee had an inauspicious start to the week. It touched an all-time low against the US dollar on January 11 and traded at 100:1 to the greenback in the open market. The fall was triggered more by fear than anything else, about the strength of forex reserves as the country repaid $146 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The worst, however, is not over yet.

So far, Pakistan has repaid $2.57 billion — including the $145.79 million payment on January 11 and is scheduled to repay another $375 million on February 26.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, foreign exchange reserves have declined to $8.7 billion as of January 31 from $10.8 billion at the end-June 2012. The IMF has also said that foreign exchange reserves under $10 billion were below adequate levels.

The rupee has recovered slightly from its dip below 100 but it is going to stay under pressure for the foreseeable future and may even set a new record low. The only saving grace is that overseas Pakistani workers have so far remitted $8.21 billion in the ongoing fiscal year, a growth of 10.4 per cent year-on-year. But even this has not been able to save forex reserves from dwindling and registering a 20 per cent decline this year.

The mood of the State Bank of Pakistan, as deduced from the Monetary Policy announcement, is that it won’t be as willing to pump liquidity into the market to prop up the rupee as it has been up till now.

As it is, the fiscal year, so far, has been the worst in a long time. Pakistan rupee depreciation, which fell by 7.8 per cent in 2012 against the US dollar, is higher than most of its peers in the region, as the Indian rupee is down 3.7 per cent against the dollar, while the Bangladeshi taka gained by 1.8 per cent.

The depreciation in the rupee is much worse than the 20-year average decline of 6.2 per cent and the 10-year decline of 3.2 per cent.

There is also pressure from the IMF to devalue the rupee further, saying that it is still over-valued by about five per cent. If the government gives in to that theory, assuming it wants to do whatever is necessary to bring the Fund to the negotiating table, the worst is far from over.

Celebrating Valentine’s Day

February 14th, 2013

So, we have another flurry of heart-shaped balloons selling on every street corner, cards selling at bookstores and kiosks along with the usual collection of cute little teddy bears and flower shops adorned with the most elaborate arrangements of red roses and other flora in bouquets and baskets. Yes, it is Valentine’s Day again and like everything else, it has of course, been turned into an earning opportunity for everyone who can muscle in, from small boys selling tiny flower buds on streets to the owners of plush restaurants offering special Valentine Day’s deals. The commercialism of the occasion, like virtually every other one on the calendar is, of course, a global phenomenon and especially understandable in a country where business is low and times hard.

With the candy, the flowers and the cards we also see the usual debates, based around questions of ‘westernisation’, morality and whatever else comes to the mind of elements in our society who seem to oppose celebration of any kind. The objections to Valentine’s Day are heard each year, repeated over and over again, with grim talk of ‘corrupted’ youth and a decline into decadence.

But, we need to ask, why can we not simply learn to enjoy these occasions and the rare festivity they bring into our lives? After all, in a society where things are generally as grim, as is the case in ours, we need opportunities for fun, for enjoyment, for laughter. Too few of these exist. Everyone is, of course, free to mark the day as they please, or not do so, as the case may be. But certainly, it makes no sense to try and stifle fun for others by arguing Valentine’s Day not be marked at all. Today, we live in a global village and need to walk in step with the world. Even more than this, we need opportunities for plain, simple enjoyment. February 14th needs to be accepted, then, as a day which offers this and not as anything more complicated which can damage our culture or belief. We need to learn how to have fun and seize every opportunity to do so.

Mortgaging Karachi airport

February 14th, 2013

Pakistan’s budget deficit has now soared to such astronomical levels — over one trillion rupees at last count — that the government has had to resort to creative means to finance its operations. In the current fiscal year, the government raised Rs182 billion by issuing a Sukuk, or Islamic bond, which offered returns against the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi. This is because the government’s economic performance over the last five years has been dismal. To deal with the budget crisis, it has printed money at an alarming rate, causing runaway inflation. Private lending by banks has also ground to a virtual halt as almost all loans are now given to prop up our empty exchequer. This is unsustainable but the government has shown no inclination to cut down its expenditures.

Issuing bonds is preferable to other methods of raising money but it is unwise to use vital installations, like the biggest airport in the country, as the security for these bonds. Airports serve a vital national security purpose and so, while the Quaid-e-Azam airport is likely to continue being profitable, the government has been incautious in selling bonds against it, since there is a slight possibility that an attack, etc. could cause the airport to suspend functions. How the government will then be able to pay out returns on these bonds is unclear.

This government’s term is about to end but the next administration will have to make the budget deficit it inherited its first priority. Soaring energy prices and the resulting circular debt has bankrupted the country and there seems to be no way of countering that. Paying off our debt and bridging the deficit is a duty that must be borne by all of us. Raising revenue simply will not be enough. It must be accompanied by austerity measures to bring down government expenditure. An obvious area of belt-tightening is the bloated defence budget but no government has had the courage to question the military. But for the sake of our economic survival we will need to declare every aspect of the budget open to scrutiny.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The Supreme Court and Tahirul Qadri

February 15th, 2013

One of the best things about the Supreme Court is that, ornery through it may be, it can be equally dismissive of all who appear before it, regardless of ideology. In Dr Tahirul Qadri, the Supreme Court had a figure who is thought to have establishment support and with whom it shares a disdain for many of the government’s actions. Yet, the Court was quick to throw out Dr Qadri’s petition asking for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to be reconstituted and was extremely brusque with the man himself. Dr Qadri didn’t make matters easy on himself by questioning the judges’ impartiality, bringing up the fact that many of them initially accepted General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s first PCO. Then, in another sign of consistency in the Supreme Court, the chief justice declared that Dr Qadri had committed contempt of court. He was also questioned about his dual nationality, something else a lot of other politicians have had to endure in the Court.

Dismissing Dr Qadri’s petition was the right decision. He seemed to have no agenda other than to ensure that elections were delayed and it was heartening to see the Court not fall for that trap. So far, Qadri’s demand that a caretaker government be appointed and serve for an extended period has been rejected by the PML-N, the PTI and now the Supreme Court. Possibly, for the first time in our history, all opposition parties are ready to fight their battle at the ballot and do not want the military to fight for them. The importance of this development cannot be understated. Without their support for elections, it is unlikely the government would have been able to serve out its term and hold free and fair elections.

The PPP can now rest assured that the composition of the ECP is not going to be changed and that Dr Qadri’s wings have been clipped. It should get on with the business of dissolving the assemblies and appointing a caretaker government. The government, after Dr Qadri’s embarrassment at the Supreme Court, should also reconsider allowing him any say in the composition of the caretaker set-up.

Literature festival in Karachi

February 15th, 2013

Some of the sheen has been taken off the Karachi Literature Festival (KLF) due to circumstances beyond its control. A rash of cancellations from Indian participants has left the festival, now in its fourth year, without some of its biggest draws. Author Shobhaa De, who was also at the KLF last year, said she could not attend since there were delays in the issuance of her visa. Lyricist Gulzar and filmmaker Vishal Bhardwaj, who were already in Pakistan, left suddenly for reasons that are still unclear. Ameena Sayid of the Oxford University Press, the organiser of the KLF, says that she believes they left for security reasons.

The KLF has been yet another victim of the tensions that have beset Pakistan-India relations since the killings at the Line of Control. Pakistani diplomats were not permitted to attend the Jaipur Literature Festival and some Pakistani authors also decided to skip the event. Sporting ties between the two nations have also been affected, with Pakistan’s hockey players having to pull out of a league in India and our women cricketers having to shift their venue at the cricket World Cup after protests against their presence in Mumbai. That this has come after a couple of years, where the peace process made progress, adds to the disappointment. Art and culture should be kept separate from politics and, indeed, should be used to build bridges.

The KLF must continue without the Indian stars. The event, which has free entrance although delegates are charged a sum of Rs16,000 as they get a chance to interact with the authors in an intimate setting, has shifted to a bigger venue. Its roster of sponsors has expanded to include the corporate sector. The KLF is a rare oasis of entertainment and learning in a city that has been deprived of both because of unending violence. Disappointing though these last-minute cancellations are, they should not detract from the effort that the organisers have put into making the KLF such a star-studded event.

Diverting funds

February 15th, 2013

It seems as if all roads lead to the prime minister — literally. In his last few days in office, Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf has been determined to spend as much public money as possible in his hometown, Gujar Khan. Two road projects that were proposed after the prime minister added Gujar Khan to the Public Sector Development Programme will require the approval of further funds, which would have to be diverted from other projects, in violation of rules instituted by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). Those rules were only introduced by the ECP in the first place because the prime minister diverted Rs15 billion away from development projects to his own discretionary fund.

It has become commonplace for politicians to put their own interests above those of the country. In the case of an ordinary backbencher, there would be nothing untoward about trying to get as many funds for his constituency as possible. The prime minister, however, is supposed to be above that and not favour his hometown. He is supposed to look after the needs of everyone in the country. This situation is compounded by the fact that elections are approaching and the prime minister seems determined to use public money to help his party’s re-election efforts. Development funds should be utilised where they are most needed and the process for doing so should be free of partisan concerns.

The prime minister’s misuse of development funds also underscores the need for an independent ECP. That the ECP has so far not allowed these projects to stand is to its credit. It should now ensure that no funds are diverted for the construction of these roads. That would highlight the freedom with which the ECP is operating and would also show political parties, like the PTI, that their concerns about the ECP’s independence are unfounded. The elections must be contested fairly and the PPP should not be allowed to misuse its incumbency powers. The only way to stop this is through the ECP, which has thankfully been up to the task so far.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

US troop withdrawal

February 16th, 2013

The announcement by US President Barack Obama that he plans to withdraw 34,000 US troops from Afghanistan — roughly half of the US forces in that country—– in early 2014, does not come as a surprise. The remaining troops are scheduled to be withdrawn by the end of 2014. This highly anticipated announcement is part of the planned US drawdown and has been on the cards for some time now. Thus far, both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban have welcomed the announcement, although the latter have used the occasion to once again call for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from war-torn Afghanistan.

Officially, this will mark the end of what has been the US’s longest war, but it will by no means signal an immediate end to the Afghan conflict itself, nor will it mean the end of the US presence in Afghanistan. An unspecified number of US troops, with some estimates ranging to 12,000, will remain in Afghanistan indefinitely. These troops, although classified as being in a ‘support’ role, will retain a combat capability and will be backed by drones and aircraft, as well as Special Forces. However, the day-to-day job of securing and holding ground in the face of the Taliban will now be the primary responsibility of the Afghan National Army which, while having swelled in size, still has to truly prove its mettle on the battlefield.

It is an open question as to whether the Taliban, emboldened by the withdrawal, will redouble their efforts to dislodge the Karzai regime or whether they will now be more inclined to negotiate with Kabul, while claiming a propaganda victory by ‘forcing’ the US to pull out. Thankfully, it does seem that the prospect of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is no longer palatable to Pakistan’s strategic planners who have, with the recent release of Taliban prisoners, seemingly thrown their weight behind a negotiated settlement. The Taliban, too, are wary of Pakistan, which they perceive as having betrayed them post-9/11.

Pakistan has huge stakes in peace in Afghanistan. The fallout from 9/11 and the Afghan war deeply destabilised this country, and if Afghanistan descends into chaos following the US withdrawal, the effects for Pakistan will be disastrous.

Ghostly horrors

February 16th, 2013

The old issue of ‘ghost’ schools in the country has come up once again. We have heard about such schools before, where no teachers teach, no children study and which have, in many cases, been put to use for other purposes. What is unfortunate is that through the years, despite much talk of ‘ghost’ schools and inquiries ordered into their presence, such institutions continue to function.

The Supreme Court, hearing a petition filed regarding a school in Gujranwala where girls are forced to sit next to graves, has taken up the matter and ordered a judicial inquiry into ‘ghost’ schools and how to turn these into genuine places of learning. During the hearing, an NGO representative raised a terrifying scenario regarding ‘ghost’ schools in Sindh, a province where the largest number of such institutions operate. The Court was told of a high school in Ghotki, where only two teachers remained on the rolls while the rest were all on deputation. These two teachers dutifully attended the school twice a year. Naturally, the school then exists only on paper. Hundreds others just like it are believed to be scattered across the province.

The Court has asked why government schools have been permitted to fall into such disarray. Reports speak of some being used as cattle pens, others taken over by various groups including the Rangers. The decline in government schools has contributed immensely to the growth of madrassas and also deprived children in many places of acquiring anything resembling a decent education. It is vital that the matter be addressed. Beyond the issue of ‘ghost’ schools, the issue of the standards at functioning government schools — the lack of basic amenities at many of them, the absence of teachers and the general indifference to the welfare of pupils, also needs to be addressed. It is important that the commission, made up of district and sessions judges, completes its findings and makes suggestions that can help remedy the situation and put things back on track.

Stranded Pakistanis

February 16th, 2013

Of the 700 Pakistani workers stranded in Saudi Arabia, for one, the recent notice taken by President Asif Ali Zardari of their situation, has come too late. One of the workers stranded in Saudi Arabia, for over a year in a visa fraud, died on February 10, after falling from a roof while working.

The Pakistani workers, who went to Saudi Arabia a year ago, have been left stranded in the kingdom — swindled by a Turkish construction company they thought they would be in the employment of — and face deportation. According to a report, the workers said they paid a large fee to get their visas issued, which turned out to be illegal. As a result, their passports were confiscated as per Saudi law. The workers are justified in demanding that they not be deported as they have committed no wrong; in fact, they have been cheated and deserve to be reimbursed by the fraudulent company whose managers have been arrested. In this regard, Pakistani authorities should speak to their Turkish counterparts to try to work out a solution. However, some of the workers just want to come home.

Responding to the workers’ desperate pleas, the president finally took notice of the matter after a story published in this paper and, according to a worker, the Pakistani embassy in Riyadh has assured that it is now looking into the situation. Indeed, the government should do all it can to protect the rights of its workers so that their woes can be resolved, and in the case of the late Dost Swalay, his body can come home. Sadly, the Pakistan government has an abysmal record when it comes to migrant workers whose lot is a sorry one in the Gulf because they have few rights and little access to legal recourse. The Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis has done little to alleviate their miseries, though attempts are made to repatriate undocumented workers home now and again. Suffice to say, these efforts are not enough and more must be done.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Talking to the Taliban

February 17th, 2013

There has been no party which has suffered as much at the hands of the Taliban as the Awami National Party (ANP). Its leaders have been assassinated and continually targeted and yet, the party has remained steadfast in the fight against militancy. Now, however, that may be about to change. At an all-parties conference (APC) convened by the ANP, two dozen political parties agreed that holding talks with the Taliban should be made an urgent priority. For the ANP to not just agree to this but be at the forefront of the initiative is disappointing. The party, which has lost more of its members to Taliban attacks than anyone else, should recognise that this is not an enemy you can negotiate with. That point was rammed home by the fact that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) itself ruled out any negotiations initiated by the ANP. Moreover, it is humiliating for the government to have to be rejected by the militant group in this manner, and just goes to show exactly what the militants think of the state, even as they offer to talk.

For the Taliban, negotiations are not simply an end in themselves; they are merely a way to take a breather from the fighting and regroup. Previous talks with the Taliban failed precisely because the militant group took a break in fighting and then simply ignored the terms of any agreement. To go through that rigmarole again is simply pointless. That the TTP is willing to talk right now, and indeed, has initiated the idea of negotiation, simply means that it is on the back foot and suffering tremendous losses. The military needs to ram home the advantage and the political parties need to keep up the pressure. Now is no time to take the Taliban at their word and pursue a negotiated settlement.

Parties that have expressed themselves as eager to talk to the Taliban seldom explain just what outcome they are hoping for. The entire point of negotiations is that both sides have to give in a little and accept a few of their opponent’s demands. What exactly are we willing to give to the Taliban? Holding talks with the militants means that we may possibly accept their territorial gains in the tribal areas and make them official. In return, at best, we will get a promise of disarmament and non-violence but this promise will be broken as soon as it becomes convenient for the TTP to do so.

We also need to realise that there is simply no point in talking to the Taliban until they eschew violence. Even now, the Taliban are continually attacking our cities and constantly trying to assassinate politicians, especially from the ANP. In fact, the convoy of the chief minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was attacked by a suicide bomber a day after the ANP-sponsored APC. This is not the behaviour of a group that is willing to negotiate in good faith. Until the TTP are willing to give an assurance that they are going to cease and desist with their violent ways and then follow through with that promise, there is simply no point in talking to them. All that will happen is that the Taliban will simply invent another excuse to indulge in murder and mayhem. The ANP, instead of lending its considerable anti-terrorism credentials to the idea of negotiations, should recognise this reality about the Taliban.

Political parties like the PML-N, the PTI and various religious parties have always either secretly supported the Taliban or, at least, felt that the militants have legitimate grievances. They will now leap at the opportunity presented by the ANP to make their appeasement strategy a reality. The ANP should realise that it is going to be used by these parties and refuse to be a part of this charade. The party has suffered such tremendous losses at the hands of the Taliban that it probably feels like there is nothing else it can do other than negotiate with the enemy. It needs to realise that there is a better path to victory. That involves convincing the army that full-scale military operations are badly needed at a time when the Taliban are depleted enough to seek negotiation. This is a time when we need to ram our advantage home and not give the Taliban an opportunity to regain their strength.

Tensions along the LoC

February 17th, 2013

Relations between Pakistan and India have become so strained right now that a single episode has the potential to badly poison ties between the two countries. Restraint is the order of the day and for once, it has been India that has refused to show any willingness to compromise. A Pakistani soldier, says our military, inadvertently crossed the Line of Control (LoC), after which he was questioned by the Indians and then killed. If this version of events is indeed true, then India’s behaviour is intolerable and should be condemned. That does not mean, however, that we should use this as an excuse to stir up further anti-India sentiment. Doing so will not bring our soldier back and will make it even more likely that future incidents along the LoC are blown out of proportion.

So far, Pakistan has demonstrated ample restraint. It has appropriately condemned the incident and complained to India but has not taken any punitive measures. That is how it should be. The chances of such incidents occurring along the disputed border are high, which is why both India and Pakistan need to ensure that they do not use these deaths as a reason for more sabre-rattling. A lot of progress has been made in the peace process over the last couple of years and retreating to square one will be to the detriment of both countries. Given the current situation, further peace overtures may be impossible right now but we should at least ensure that we do not throw away previous gains.

India, too, needs to play its part. Its reaction to the various LoC fracas have been disproportionate and over the top. Our sportspersons and cultural figures visiting India have felt unwanted and unsafe and had to return home. This is unfortunate since right now, these people-to-people exchanges may be needed more than ever before. When governments are at each other’s throats, these citizens can help keep contact alive and show the value of engagement. We need to keep these cultural engagements alive. If both Pakistan and India are indeed committed to peace, they will overlook these tragic LoC incidents.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga