UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon extended a late invitation to Iran, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, to participate in the Geneva conference regarding a peace deal held on January 22 this year. However, Iran’s invitation was withdrawn the very next day since it infuriated the Syrian opposition groups and the US, due to the fact that Iran opposes the establishment of a transitional government in Syria, which is a defining goal of the peace talks. Even though Syria’s government attended the talks, they rejected the basis of the conference which is to establish a temporary government to replace Bashar alAssad. Russia, a key ally of Assad and a sponsor of the conference, echoed that Assad’s removal from power is not the end goal. On the other hand, Ahmad alJarba, the Syrian opposition leader, specified that any settlement, which keeps Assad in power will never be accepted by the rebels.

When Assad was elected to power in Syria, he had the blessing of the US and his government even assisted the US in the war on terror. Vogue magazine ran a fashion spread on Assad’s wife, Asma, and her sense of style less than three years ago. After the Syrian uprising, the article titled “A Rose in the Desert” was quickly removed from the web. Fast-forward to the present day and John Kerry insists that “Bashar Assad will not be part of that transition government.” The Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid alMoualem, made no attempt to hide his contempt for foreign interference by responding “No one, Mr Kerry, in the world has the right to give legitimacy or to withdraw legitimacy from a president, a government, a constitution or a law or anything in Syria, except Syrians.”

The conference opened amidst the opportunely released report by three former war crimes prosecutors which contains photographs of systematic torture and execution of about 11,000 prisoners since 2011. This report was funded by the government of Qatar and alleges widespread human rights abuses by the Syrian regime. The findings back up rebel claims of torture and might help gain support for the opposition. If a charge of crimes against humanity is taken up to the UN Security Council or the International Criminal Court, it could lead to severe consequences for Assad’s government.

After three years of bloodshed and 130,000 dead, no one is holding up much hope for these negotiations to be productive. Expectations are low for either a solution to the military deadlock or a regime change in the near future. Even the world powers sponsoring the event do not agree on the end goals of the peace conference. The West has stated that “there is no military solution”, but Syria and its allies believe otherwise. Some military success in the last few months along with fighting amongst the rebel factions, which has left 1,000 dead so far, has convinced Assad that he’s on the right track. Meanwhile, the rebels continue to receive money and weapons from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to use against the Russian supplied armored vehicles, helicopters and surveillance equipment of Assad’s government. These arms and funds flowing into Syria from a range of countries are a strong indicator that diplomacy is still taking a backseat despite the sides coming together this week in Switzerland.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 27th, 2014.