A tale of two speeches

August 15, 2012

The two most powerful men in Pakistan celebrated Independence Day this year in the time-honoured political fashion: the army chief by addressing the Azadi Parade at the military academy in Kakul and the president at a customary ceremony at the Presidency. Though the tone and tenor of their speeches varied considerably, both President Zardari and General Kayani made a call for unity: the former to both the people and parliament to be watchful against assaults on the Constitution and parliament and the latter to the populace in the battle against terrorists and extremists. Amid speculation about an impending military operation to clear North Waziristan of terrorist sanctuaries, Gen Kayani used his Independence Day message to pre-empt possible criticism against any such offensive and to build the national mood for what will probably be the toughest phase of the counter-militancy operations in the country. Given the tricky circumstances, the army chief highlighted a central dilemma faced by any army launching an operation within the very boundaries it is tasked to protect and guard. The state has to take action against extremists since it cannot allow a militant force to set up a parallel system. In the tribal regions where some areas are contested and some held by militants mostly loyal to the Taliban, it is also exceptionally hard for any army to fight against its own people. While both leaders urged unity among their ranks, for Gen Kayani, it was national integrity and unity that most needed protection, while the president’s speech betrayed greater concern for Pakistan’s fledgling democratic project.

However, both speeches also carried a tinge of bitterness. On his part, the top military commander couldn’t help making a dig at the government’s poor performance, saying that the “critical economic situation, corruption and aggravating situation of civic amenities” had prevented Pakistanis from being optimistic about the future. He did not mention, however, that the Pakistan army takes away the largest portion of the country’s resource pie, and this year got Rs643 billion for defence. Perhaps he had in mind that trillions had been frittered away through bad governance by civilians, one trillion in the energy sector alone. Also, while he was critical of the performance of civilian law-enforcement agencies in the past, it may have been helpful for the army chief to call out to his rank and file and instruct them to cooperate with civilians. As things stand now, for example in the case of Balochistan, the military establishment does not work with, let alone acknowledge, the civilian set-up. It is thus up to Gen Kayani to reflect on the fact that the security establishment’s mindset, despite all proclamations to the contrary, remains unaffected and it continues to operate outside civilian control in certain areas. On the other hand, the president’s message of an impending attack against democracy and the Constitution, against which he urged people to unite, reflected his own lack of awareness about where the problem truly lies. While it is important to call people to be vigilant against any onslaught against the Constitution and parliament, the president must also think deep and hard about his own government’s role in sustaining the conflict with other institutions. This Independence Day, instead of presenting platitudes, those who control the levers of power in this country may want to look a little harder and deeper into themselves and admit where they have erred. It is only then that lessons will be learnt and course-correction carried out.

Cairo intrigue

August 15, 2012

The Egyptian army was taken off-guard in the he Egyptian army was taken off-guard in the Sinai peninsula recently in an attack by Islamist militants. Sixteen soldiers died and the Egyptian public was alarmed, its faith in the armed forces shaken. That same public may today be pondering the inner meaning of the ‘retirement’ of the defence minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi who had ruled Egypt in the year following the revolution that saw the end of Mubarak. Many will see this as the newly-elected President Morsi flexing his muscles, itself an unexpected development as he was thought to be little more than a figurehead, his powers curtailed and ruled from the background by the military. Not only has Morsi ‘retired’ his defence minister he has also nullified the constitutional document adopted on June 17 by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that gave the military sweeping legislative powers – making something of a mockery of democratic processes in so doing. President Morsi has also appointed his own pick for the post of vice president, the first time the post has been filled for 30 years, and on Wednesday the head of the powerful intelligence services was also ‘retired’ after the debacle in Sinai.

Analysts both inside and outside Egypt are trying to decode what may be going on, but whatever it is the script is significantly different to what it was a month ago. It may be that President Morsi has acted behind the scenes in concert and collaboration with other military figures that are sympathetic to a civilian administration. It could also be that analysts inside and outside Egypt have underestimated President Morsi who has from the outset committed himself to the promotion of pluralist government and true, rather than puppet, civilian rule. The fall of Mubarak can now be seen as part of a continuum of change rather than a singularity, and this is similar in form if not content to that which is happening in other states that were part of ‘The Arab Spring’. A diversity of governance is evolving across the Maghrib and in the Levant showing democracy as a coat of many colours.

Panetta’s hints

August 16, 2012

In the last two weeks, the grapevine in Pakistan has been buzzing with the question of whether or not the Pakistan Army will launch a military offensive in North Waziristan. It all began with an August 3 report in The Wall Street Journal, which alleged that US and Pakistani officials were considering joint counter-terrorism campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While Pakistan’s instinctive response was to unequivocally deny the media leaks, as the days passed it tweaked its position somewhat and said “coordinated actions” on respective sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border were already ongoing but should not be mistaken for “joint operations.” A few days later, a Pakistani security official urged US and Nato forces to seal the Afghan border from their side if Pakistan launched an operation against the militants. Following this was the army chief’s address at the Azadi Parade at Kakul, calling for national unity “in the battle against terrorism.” Together, such statements have been interpreted as indicating that a military operation in North Waziristan may be imminent. But while the whole truth remains clouded by rumour and contradiction, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has come out and claimed that the offensive will be launched soon and will target Taliban fighters who launch attacks on Pakistan and not the Haqqani network. According to Panetta, Pakistan’s military leadership has already given its word about the planned operation in recent conversations with the top American commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen.

This is not the first time the rumour mill has gone into overdrive about a possible military offensive in North Waziristan. We’ve been hearing that Pakistan is considering launching an offensive since the spring of 2010, and have seen intermittent reports about “surgical raids.” In May 2011, the Pakistan Army revealed that it would soon launch “a careful and meticulous military offensive” in North Waziristan. Of course, no such offensive took place and here we are now, more than a year and a half later, back to square one, asking whether or not an operation will be initiated soon. While there is no gainsaying that half-hearted measures in North Waziristan will not be in the interest of Pakistan, rushing into a full-blown military offensive due to pressure from the Americans could also turn out to be counterproductive. Already it is disheartening to hear Panetta claim that the Pakistani army has given its word about the operation to General Allen. What about Pakistan’s civilian government? What about its parliament, which has of late claimed to be the driver of foreign policy decision-making? Are the civilian players in on these new developments? Any operation of any kind in North Waziristan will be a major event and one that necessarily requires sharing of wisdom and responsibility. Just like consensus was generated on Operation Rah-i-Rast in Swat, creating the extraordinary enabling conditions to deliver a decisive blow to militancy there, consensus is required in the case of North Waziristan too. No single actor can take the decision on such a sensitive operation alone.

Minorities and migration

August 16, 2012

The issue of the migration by some 200 Hindu families from Jacobabad to India remains a controversial one. Certain Hindu leaders and human rights activists have claimed that members of the community were fleeing Sindh because of the law and order situation and fear of forcible conversions. Threse claims have been vehemently denied by the authorities who had formed a three-member committee to probe the incidents. Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah has said inquiries show there is no truth in the matter and that the Hindus have gone merely on a brief pilgrimage. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has – in typical fashion – declared the whole affair a conspiracy while the General Hindu Panchayat at Larkana has said the community is confident the Pakistan government can protect it, and its members will not be leaving the country.

If true, this is good news. We certainly want our minorities to stay and feel confident they have a place in this country. The matter was even referred to indirectly by COAS general Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in his Independence Day message in which he said Pakistan should be a homeland for all communities and groups. But we cannot deny that minorities, and particularly Hindus, have faced persecution over the past few decades. This has been pointed out by the autonomous Human Rights Commission of Pakistan while reacting to the news of the forced migration. Hindus have faced more abductions, more harassment and more threats in recent years than at any time in the past in both Sindh and Balochistan. As a result, many have indeed fled. What we need to do is create an environment more conducive to all minorities and make sure they are made to feel equal citizens of the state. It is unfortunate that even in areas of Sindh, where Hindus and Muslims have lived in harmony for centuries, tensions have recently begun to creep in. Steps need to be taken to tackle this problem and ensure more Hindus or other groups do not feel compelled to leave their country.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

TTP strikes again

August 17, 2012

The audacious attack on the Kamra airbase in the early hours of Thursday was the latest in a series of high profile assaults on sensitive military targets in the country. The attack, that took place in the dead of night and was over by dawn on Thursday, left nine terrorists and one member of the security forces dead and the base commander injured. In addition to the dead on both sides, one aircraft was damaged. By mid-afternoon, the TTP were claiming it as their work and there is no reason to disbelieve this. An attack – possibly several and all involving army or air force facilities – had been predicted in intelligence reports that had been leaked to the media, and other attacks in the near future cannot be ruled out. Peshawar airport has been placed on a high state of alert and we may assume that other airports and sensitive facilities around the country are also experiencing a tightening of security.

There are calls for this or that person to be sacked, and fingers point to intelligence failures. In the past, reports on similar attacks have never seen the light of day allowing mistakes to be repeated and lessons not to be learned. Fears are already being expressed that the details of this attack, and the security failures that allowed it, will once again be hidden from public scrutiny The need to apportion blame aside, a cooler understanding of this event is also needed. Threats are many, but often false or deliberately misleading and the intelligence agencies are inevitably one step behind the terrorist. To successfully intervene in a terrorist operation, the intelligence services and police need to become aware of it in detail at the planning stage. Probably more often than we hear about it, they stop operations but it is their failures that get publicised. Once threats that are undetected move to the operational phase, intervention is extremely difficult and reaction is the name of the game. In order to get into terrorist groups at the planning stage a strong local police force, skilled in surveillance and with modern equipment is essential. Our police are more noted for their weaknesses than their strengths, and as the attack on PNS Mehran showed the perimeter security of crucial installations can be woefully inadequate. These are functional and strategic weaknesses that terrorists exploit, and it is not one single deficit that contributes to a successful attack but a web of deficits, often interlocking, that provides safe passage for the terrorist and his evil designs. The attack on the Kamra base was largely thwarted. All the attackers were killed and our casualty figures were relatively low; but the TTP have once again scored a propaganda victory. Until and unless we develop a countervailing narrative, the TTP and other organisations like it are going to find tacit support and succour within the community. Their sympathisers and fellow-travellers are all around us, the silent enemies who look the other way, and they are as great a threat as the men with the bombs and guns.

The OIC and Syria

August 17, 2012

In the small hours of Thursday morning, The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) suspended the membership of Syria. Saudi Arabia had organised an emergency summit of the 57 OIC members in the light of the ongoing conflict, and the suspension is much to the chagrin of Iran which had opposed it. The USA, meanwhile, has swiftly welcomed the move. The Arab Spring has seen something of a rejuvenation of the OIC, and it is playing an increasingly active role in the political life of the region. After the United Nations itself it is the largest international organisation in the world, though its profile has rarely reflected that fact, and it is sometimes regarded as symbolic rather than powerful or proactive. In the context of the Syrian conflict it is of particular note that the OIC meeting includes all the nations which have a direct interest in its outcome. Significantly, it did not include China but Russia had a nominal observer status. The US had a special envoy to the OIC in attendance and he doubtless lobbied for American interests on the sidelines, but at this conference it was not the big powers round the table that were in the driving seat. It was the nations that really matter, rather than those who matter because they are big enough not to make anybody else matter.

The OIC suspension of Syrian membership will add to the already substantial isolation the Assad regime is experiencing. The Assad government had a lone supporter in the OIC, Iran, but President Ahmedinajad was unable to sway even a minority of other OIC member states to his side. Syria has all along presented the uprising as the brainchild of western states and regional rivals, and there is little doubt that the USA, Britain, France and others are giving sustenance to some of the rebel groups – but so are Arab states as well. There is no unified opposition in Syria but a mosaic of groups that represent tribal and sectarian interests and who, if they were not fighting the incumbent regime, may well be fighting one another. This is a significant fear in the event of Assad being toppled. If the OIC can open the doors of diplomacy in a conflict that has proved remarkably resistant to diplomacy of any sort, then it will have advanced its stature and reputation by mitigating a conflict whose toxicity may spread beyond Syrian borders.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Sectarian scourge

August 18, 2012

Thursday morning’s brutal sectarian massacre of 22 passengers travelling through the Babusar Top area of Mansehra district was a bloody iteration of a chilling pattern of attacks against religious minorities, including members of Muslim minority sects. In the early hours of the morning, terrorists ambushed four buses, hauled off passengers, checked their national identity cards and summarily executed the Shias. A spokesman for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the killings. While there was legitimate outrage across the country over Thursday’s Kamra airbase attack and the subsequent loss of lives and damage to national assets, the slaughter of innocent civilians belonging to the Shia community was not met with quite the same amount of indignation. In fact, if the past is a benchmark, the 22 victims of Babusar Top will have died as insignificantly as they had lived, with no one held responsible or answerable for their deaths. In a state where the concept of national security does not yet incorporate the crucial element of human security, the symbols of state authority seem to matter more than the citizens whose protection and well-being constitutes the very raison d’être of the state. Thus, while the airbase attack unleashed a debate about the militants’ determination to target Pakistan’s most sensitive installations and raised questions about their safety, the more elemental questions were lost in the cacophony: are Pakistan’s citizens safe? Can Pakistan protect its minorities? Is any part of Pakistan free from the scourge of sectarian terror?

As things stand, this is the third attack this year that has specifically targeted Shias on buses. Meanwhile, Hazara Shias are routinely murdered in Balochistan, including the three more killed on Thursday, while sectarian violence has become a regular feature of life in Mansehra District, Kurram Agency, Dera Ismail Khan as well as south and central Punjab. The country’s financial hub of Karachi too has witnessed more than its fair share of sectarian attacks in recent days, with a blast near a bus carrying Shias to a rally on Friday killing at least one. The thick sectarian tide in the overall wave of militancy sweeping Pakistan can be explained by the fact that sectarian groups here have linked up ideologically with global jihadism. Overtly sectarian and jihadi elements are also increasingly seen occupying the same stage as mainstream religious parties. Meanwhile, those behind repeated acts of violence - such as the banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi - are rarely caught or punished. Indeed, killing minorities in Pakistan seems to have become fair game while those responsible for securing citizens remain helpless, leaving minority communities to believe the security establishment is protecting the perpetrators. The mysterious escape of the local head of the LeJ, Usman Saifullah, and a key leader, Shafiq Rind, from a very well guarded Anti-Terrorist Force jail in Quetta Cantonment, is a case in point. A deadly pattern is emerging: terrorists are on a murderous rampage against Pakistan’s minority sects while the authorities have failed to prove themselves capable of taking them on. Virtually all terrorist outfits operating in Pakistan have donned the religious cloak. It is this criminal abuse of religion that the state must check against. And yet, the state is doing nothing to identify, capture, prosecute and punish those involved in sectarian terrorism. Thus, the scandal here is not just that Shia after Shia is being killed; it is that the state has become a silent onlooker in the massacre. Flaccid behaviour is too often empowering for a cunning enemy. Today, this logic is creating a dangerous moment in Pakistan where those on a killing spree are asserting themselves for little reason beyond the conviction that they can, while those who can stop them do nothing. In Pakistan, the triumph of evil may have become more and more possible under a silent, impotent state emasculated by religious extremists.

Eid misery

August 18, 2012

The joy and happiness people are looking forward to as Eid-ul-Fitr approaches may well be dimmed this year. According to a report in this newspaper, it is expected that even on this joyous occasion there may be no let-up in the relentless loadshedding that has confronted us all through the year and even into Ramazan. The Pakistan State Oil, which has stated to be badly short of cash, has slashed the furnace oil supply to power plants from about 28,000 tons to just 15,373 tons a day. Power plants, as a result, literally have no fuel to produce electricity. The prime minister had previously ordered adequate fuel supplies to the plants but PSO apparently says this is simply not possible unless a sum of Rs23 billion is immediately released to it. The whole problem is of course one of circular debt.

While the PM gave orders for 28,000 tons of furnace oil to be supplied, he did nothing to solve the long string of financial woes which prevent PSO from feeding the power sector the furnace oil it requires. To make matters even worse, four Independent Power Producers have also said they will need to cut power generation due to financial factors. The complexities of all this needs to be sorted out by experts. But for the common man life is becoming more and more difficult. Problems created by the power shortage are acute. People have not only been robbed of their peace of mind and livelihoods but now it seems they are going to be robbed of the simple delights of celebrating Eid with family and friends and will be left seething and cursing the menace of power cuts.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Will they, won’t they?

August 19, 2012

The ‘revelation’ that an operation in North Waziristan could never be the result of “outside pressure” may not surprise anyone who has parsed General Kayani’s response to reports in the western media that the army chief had given his word to Isaf Commander Gen John Allen over joint operations in North Waziristan. In remarks released by the ISPR on Friday, Gen Kayani has said that joint Pak-US action in North Waziristan Agency would be unacceptable to the people and armed forces of the country. But missing from the word cloud of the army chief’s denial, however, is a crucial element: the denial itself. In fact, we now have some kind of an acknowledgement from as high an office as that of the chief of army staff that Pakistan may indeed be planning an offensive in North Waziristan. As evident from the remarks released by ISPR, Gen Kayani has not denied that Pakistan is considering the operation; what he has denied is that the operation will take place, whenever it does, because of external pressure. In fact, the army chief went as far as to acknowledge that Pakistan “might, if necessary, undertake an operation in NWA,” but that any such offensive would only be as per a time-frame of Pakistan’s choosing and determined only by internal political and military requirements. In sum, the army chief made Pakistan’s red lines loud and clear: “Pakistan’s national interest continues to be the prime consideration for any decision in this regard.”

While the general’s remarks remain direct, clear-cut and unambiguous at first hearing, when carefully parsed, they are revealed to not be so straightforward after all. Indeed, is the army chief practising the gentle art of the ‘non-denial denial’ – a statement that appears to be a denial of what was alleged but actually isn’t? Questions abound. What is the bottom-line: that Pakistan may finally be planning an offensive but not in order to do American bidding but because it actually and fully understands now the importance of taking on the witches’ brew of militants in North Waziristan? The Americans have been arm-twisting the Pakistanis on a North Waziristan operation for ages, only to be met with protestations about lack of resources and other reasons. What has changed now? Is the Pakistan Army suddenly better resourced and less stretched? Also, reports suggest any operation in NWA will be against the TTP and not the Haqqanis. How will the American military establishment and lawmakers respond to this, given that it is clear the $1.3 billion recently paid has strings attached and no one from Isaf or the US military is really worried about the TTP? Also, while the army chief has dispelled the impression that the Pakistani military leadership gave the US an assurance over joint operations, it is also pertinent to ask if the decision to start the operation – whenever taken – will be taken after involving the civilian government and parliament and generating national consensus or if it will be presented as a fait accompli to the nation. Finally, the crucial question in this will-they, won’t-they debate on an NWA operation remains thus: is the army avoiding a fight in NWA for all the stated reasons – lack of resources, the American’s unreasonable fixation with the Haqqanis, the threat of blowback – or is the real reason that the army does not want to risk the possibly insurmountable political consequences such an offensive may generate for the army itself inside Pakistan? Going forward, let’s hope we get some clear answers.

Slamming suicide

August 19, 2012

The message delivered by President Asif Ali Zardari in Mecca at the fourth extraordinary summit of the Organisation of Islamic Conference last week is an important one. As the president suggested, it is in many ways crucial to the future of the Muslim world. Zardari called for Muslim ulema across the globe to combine voices and deliver an edict, or ‘fatwa,’ against suicide killings. His call of course comes just a day after the damaging suicide attack at the Kamra Airbase, representing yet another threat to one of our most highly protected military installations. We have seen others like it before at other places and at other times. But of course Pakistan is not the only Muslim country to suffer from suicide attacks. They have taken place in many other nations. The message contained within Islam has become badly warped and distorted as a result of the acts of zealots. Sadly, it is this ugly face of Islam which has appeared again and again before the world, and fixed in people’s minds a particular, violent image of Islam. This is sad. We desperately need to break clear of this image and present before the world the true face of Islam as a religion of peace and tolerance. We can wait no longer for this process to begin. Too much damage has been inflicted already. It will take a long time for the scars to heal and vanish.

But we also need to think a little more deeply about the message from President Zardari. Certainly, a universal call from top Muslim leaders and men of learning against suicide attacks would be good news. But would these, on their own, be effective? The fact is that within our own country, leading clerics have already condemned suicide attacks. Their words have had little impact. The extremists are obviously not willing to listen to reason. That much is obvious. Other strategies are also required to deal with this menace.

Bhatta Mubarak!

August 19, 2012

Eid shoppers in Karachi are paying not only for the items they buy but an extra 20 percent in addition to fund traders who say they are forced to pay thousands each day to extortionists and political parties. They have now decided to pass this spending onto the customers as the government and police have failed to protect them or offer them any respite from the extortion menace. According to Karachi Traders Action Committee Chairman Siddique Memon, markets in Karachi pay Rs50 million per day to extortionists and to appease political elements. The All Karachi Tajir Ittehad, meanwhile, says markets have lost 20 billion due to the law and order situation and terrorist threat in the city.

The head of police in Karachi, according to the traders, had agreed to put 5,000 policemen on duty outside shops but only 500 have been posted so far. As a result, traders have been forced to hire some 1,250 private guards to help protect them. The cost of all this is being passed onto the already cash- strapped customers who had already cut down on Eid shopping because of the high prices. The depressing fact is that extortion in Karachi is not a new problem. Yet nothing has been done in all these years to free shopkeepers from this menace. Immediate and meaningful action is the only solution.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Dams, Plan ‘B’

August 20, 2012

That we were in desperate need of more dams was self-evident 30 years ago. The only reason we do not have the dams that we knew we needed is the serial incompetence of successive federal and provincial governments. The Bhasha Dam, which has been touted as a panacea for many of our ills in the power sector, has now run into trouble so deep and complex, with donors disappearing with frightening rapidity, that Wapda have come up with ‘Plan B’. Allegedly. It plans to raise the $3bn to fund further construction by mortgaging its assets – the Tarbela, Mangla and Ghazi Barotha power complexes. Wapda claims that it is determined to complete the project without the help of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or the World Bank (WB). Reading between the lines of the statement by Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Dr Nadeemul Haq one realises that Plan B is at the conceptual rather than the implementation stage – in other words, there is no final ‘Plan B’, merely an acknowledgement that it is about time we had one.

The key question that needs to be asked from the Planning Commission is: why were they sleeping? And why did they not have a contingency Plan-B ready, just in case the original plan failed? Dr Nadeemul Haq tells us that there has been a meeting to discuss the matter and Plan B needs further refinement and Wapda was going to contact ‘financial experts to finalise the financial plan for the project.’ Why, if we may ask, has this not already been done? Note that his words are all couched in the future tense, indicating that Plan B is still at the back-of-an-envelope stage. Further, he did little to encourage confidence in Plan B by saying that mortgaging Wapda assets was ‘not so simple keeping in view the current global sentiments about Pakistan ’. In other words who would want to buy futures in a trio of clapped-out dams that any financial analyst worth their salt would consider past their sell-by date anyway? Tenuous as it is, any plan is better than no plan and it is to be finalised within six months. Simply put, we cannot afford that this project fails. But there are a range of ‘if’s’ before it that must be satisfied before it is fully secure.

Children abused

August 20, 2012

For a society that sets such store by children, we are remarkably careless about their welfare and safety. A report published by the Madadgar National Helpline makes truly shocking reading, and is a shameful indictment of the authorities and families in failing to protect children. The primary responsibility for the protection of all children falls on the family and not the state, and the family appears to be the nodal point for the abuse of children. In the first six months of 2012, there were 2,331 cases of reported violence against minors, incidents which happened in every province. Forced marriage, rape, sodomy, honour killing and torture all feature. As do cases where minors committed suicide, or were trafficked or fell victim to the odious practice of Vani. Minors are kidnapped for ransom or revenge and 367 have been murdered for a range of reasons.

Punjab leads nationally with 1,059 cases, 687 from Sindh, 382 from KP and 203 from Balochistan. Although these figures are in themselves shocking they represent the tip of a much larger iceberg of abuse. Children everywhere are being abused sexually and their civil rights as individuals trampled upon. Pernicious cultural practices ‘allow’ the abuse to continue unchecked and encourage rather than discourage appalling acts against children. There is little or no child protection legislation and only Punjab has government-funded child protection offices staffed by qualified but under-resourced social workers. Children are abused in their schools, the madrassas, the workplace and, primarily, in their homes by the very people on whom the primary duty to protect devolves – their parents. The Madadgar report concludes by saying that...’the authorities in Pakistan seem unwilling or unable to protect children from abuse and bring the perpetrators to justice, which promotes a culture of violence through the impunity granted to the criminals.’ Those 34 words are an indictment for a set of crimes for which we bear collective responsibility. This is not the work of some ‘hidden hand.’ It is the work of the hands of the people of Pakistan. Surely we can do better than this?

Educational mess

August 20, 2012

Our education system is in a quagmire so deep it seems difficult to understand how we can ever step out of it and move towards a brighter future. Education is, of course, the first rung on which we need to step to achieve progress and prosperity but it seems even the ladder is not propped up yet. A recent study by the NGO Strengthening Participatory Organisation notes that Pakistan has one of the most stratified education systems in the world, with about eight different kinds of institutions functioning in the country. These range from government schools to elite private institutes offering ‘O’ and ‘A’ level education. We also have madrassahs, cadet colleges, Urdu and English-medium private schools, schools run under the Aga Khan Board and public and private sector colleges. The SPO study points out that these differences create divides rather than unification in society. We are, of course, all familiar with the manner in which different schools are graded in social terms. Moreover, there is little regulation of either private schools or madrassahs, and this adds to the problems with some 6,000 registered and 4,000 unregistered private schools running in Karachi alone. The SPO survey also noted the dismal standards at government schools, with grade level students unable to construct simple sentences or solve basic maths problems.

But these are not the only problems Pakistan faces as far as its education sector goes. During the current fiscal year, while Pakistan decreased its spending on higher education by Rs10 billion, India expanded its higher education budget five-fold. In India, more than 1,000 billion rupees was allocated for higher education for the year 2012-13. This is 40 times more than what Pakistan spends on education. Higher education enrolment in India is 18 percent as compared to a dismal eight percent in Pakistan where few make it past a badly flawed primary and secondary structure. Experts also point out India invests far more in research, creating far higher standards as far as education goes. The depths to which we have sunk in the educational sphere is something to think about very deeply. We have a pile of problems facing us. Somehow this pile needs to be cleared and sorted out.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Minority report

August 23, 2012

Disturbing reports on violence against Pakistan’s Christian community continued all through the Eid break, with news of the arrest and imprisonment of a Christian girl accused by a local cleric of burning pages allegedly containing text from the Holy Quran. The girl was arrested on August 16 after hundreds of neighbours gathered outside her home and demanded that police take action. Following the incident, scores of Christians fled the area out of fear of reprisal attacks from mobs who surrounded the village. In the face of this domestic frenzy and international interest in the case, President Zardari has sought a detailed report of the incident from the interior ministry and said “no one will be allowed to misuse the blasphemy law for settling personal scores.” The PTI chief Imran Khan also tweeted that the episode was “against the very spirit of Islam which is all about being just and compassionate.” As things stand, questions abound and the details of the case are still shrouded in some confusion. Though the media has widely reported that the girl is mentally challenged, a medical report confirming this is still pending. The girl’s age is equally disputed, with some police officials claiming she is 16 while the All Pakistan Minorities Alliance and most press reports saying she is just 11 to 12 years old. If the girl is confirmed to be a minor, will the case be dealt with under the juvenile justice system or will she still be tried for blasphemy? As yet, we do not even have a conclusive answer to whether the girl burnt the pages herself or merely collected already burnt pages as part of her daily routine as a garbage collector.

Finally, while these questions will hopefully be settled in the days to come, the most urgent question is: will the state begin to take seriously its responsibility to provide justice to all, irrespective of caste, creed or religion, and minimise incidents of vigilante justice? The life of any accused should not be at risk from sympathisers of the accuser as soon as the allegation is publicly known, and even after acquittal. But that is the case in Pakistan where violent mobs often take the law into their own hands without fear of reprisal or punishment. As the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has said in a statement: “The spread of extremism and the authorities’ preference for appeasing charged mobs, rather than taking the correct and lawful course, should make those in power as well as other political forces take serious note.” Would it be too optimistic to conclude that the intervention pledged by the president in the Christian girl’s case is a sign that the powers that be may just take up the issue of vigilante justice and mistreatment of minority communities in Pakistan? As things stand, we have more than enough evidence that in the face of allegations that involve religion the country’s law-enforcement agencies and justice system are helpless, thus fostering a mindset where individuals feel it their right to take the law into their own hands. Indeed, in this latest case, the most obvious implication of incarcerating a mentally disabled child — the operative term being ‘child’ — is the callousness of society when it comes to alleged cases of this nature. Will the mobs continue to rule or will we see even a single case of blasphemy allegations thoroughly investigated and taken to its logical conclusion? Will those who seek vigilante justice be made to pay for their crimes? The answer, if the past is anything to go by, is all too clear. But this madness must stop somewhere — and quickly.

Quetta as it used to be

August 23, 2012

It is depressing to read accounts of what Quetta was once like as a city. In the past, people thronged to its cinemas, wandered through the bazaars without fear, dined out, attended parties and children played safely on the streets. The city was a much-loved home to the generations who grew up there as well as a cool oasis for holiday-makers from other parts of the country escaping the summer heat. But that was before strife and trouble hit the once-tranquil city. Balochistan’s capital has today changed beyond recognition. Bomb blasts and incidents of ethnic and sectarian violence are reported almost every day, with check-posts, bunkers and road blocks now ubiquitous. The latest incident of violence took place on Eid, killing one and wounding eight when a vehicle belonging to the security forces was targeted. There have been numerous similar attacks as well as others based on sectarian or ethnic motives. In targeted killings, teachers have been shot dead and abductions and disappearances have become a regular affair. The people of Quetta and many other parts of the province now live in a state of perpetual fear and avoid going out after dark. There is simply no law and order and no sense of security.

As a result of all this, settlers from other provinces who have lived in Balochistan for generations have been forced to pack their belongings and leave. The Hazara community of the city feel equally insecure given the chilling frequency of attacks on them. In desperation, many have restricted their movements and others have made attempts to leave the country. Little heed has been paid to their protests by the authorities. Many Baloch young men, meanwhile, continue to live in the fear of being abducted and joining the ranks of ‘missing persons’. In these circumstances, it is almost impossible to believe that Quetta was once a place of joy and calm. Old pictures from more peaceful times now seem difficult to recognise. Certainly, the generation that has grown up in the Quetta of today find it difficult to even relate to such happier times. Can anything be done to halt this slide of a once-graceful city towards anarchy? Is it already too late for the provincial government to wake up from its deep slumber and accept its responsibility of protecting the people? Do the top political leaders of the country really understand what is happening and what their role is in stopping it? The Supreme Court continues its efforts to persuade the authorities to impose some kind of order in Balochistan. But the task, given the callous and indifferent attitude of those responsible for maintaining law and order, appears to be beyond the court’s abilities. The future of our largest province is shrouded in deep uncertainty and it falls upon all of us to try and find solutions before it is too late.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Flood alert

August 24, 2012

The monsoon rains, late this year, have finally arrived with the full force of nature, wreaking havoc in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Fata and Azad Kashmir and leaving at least 32 people dead just over the last few days. The weeks ahead promise more damage, with the catchment areas of the Chenab and Ravi distributaries expected to receive heavy rains, which may cause floods in Lahore, Faisalabad and Gujranwala divisions. There are also fears of flash floods in the urban areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while a spell of relentless rain since Sunday has displaced thousands of people in Azad Kashmir. What should we expect in the days ahead? It was earlier in May that the National Disaster Management Authority warned that over 29 million people across Pakistan could potentially be affected by flooding this year, thus advising the provinces to “invest in disaster preparedness.” The vast scope of the damage from the floods of 2010 and 2011 makes them truly national disasters with long-term economic and political consequences. Indeed, after the deluge left thousands dead and millions homeless, one couldn’t imagine the Pakistan government would mess up, once again, on responding to the needs of the region and its desperately vulnerable people. No it couldn’t – and yet, it seems to have done exactly that. What, one wonders, was discussed at the July 2 meeting chaired by the prime minister to review nation- wide preparedness for the 2012 monsoon season? From what we heard, contingency planning assumed the worst-case scenario and each provincial government, in coordination with the NDMA, came up with a plan to deal with its unique flood situation. But come monsoon season, it is clear that the measures to reduce the risk and impact of floods only look good on paper and the reality is markedly different. In Punjab, more than Rs300 million was allocated for flood preparedness measures but the money has turned out to be grossly insufficient. Sindh had set up district and taluka committees for risk and disaster management but insufficient flood protection infrastructure on the Indus river system, and inadequate protective infrastructure in general, remain key challenges. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the provincial DMA has not identified or dealt with challenges adequately, which will give a tough time to the federal and provincial governments this rainy season. Earlier this month, a research study commissioned by the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC), a group of UK NGOs, identified major shortcomings in Pakistan’s disaster risk reduction (DRR) system, calling for greater funding, political support and co-ordination to work more effectively and emphasising more durable forms of DRR, such as mitigation and prevention. Indeed, the situation on the ground reveals that as much as scarce resources, low priority given by both the federal and provincial governments to flood mitigating measures is the major factor behind the failure to implement identified contingency plans in letter and spirit. In the days ahead, the government at all levels must keep in mind that while floods kill people, they also hit a live political nerve. Often, survivors do not see themselves exclusively as victims of fate. They also see themselves as victims of the state. In Pakistan, this would not be a misplaced feeling. If not for reasons of compassion, the rulers would be well-advised to remember that these victims will also be voters come election time.

The divorce option

August 24, 2012

Our relationship with the USA is still going through an extremely difficult phase. Were this a marriage in the real sense of the word a divorce might have been considered – and now it may be. On Wednesday, our ex-ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani delivered a speech at the Centre for National Interest, a Washington think-tank, at which the divorce option finally came into the open. He made the point that if after 65 years our two states have been unable to find sufficient common ground to live together, have had three separations and four reaffirmations of marriage then perhaps it might be time to acknowledge the failure of the marriage, divorce, and find other ways to pursue our relationship outside of wedlock. He pointed to unrealistic expectations on both sides, and that the dysfunctionality of the relationship suggested that a break, followed by what he called ‘a post alliance future’ was the most appropriate option. Whatever one may think of Haqqani in terms of his involvement in the recent ‘memogate’ affair, he remains an influential voice even if in terms of our own government he holds no position of influence. His address made some telling points. It is unrealistic for the US to believe that we would give up our nuclear weapons, or sever ties with extremists who for us may be a ‘subconventional force multiplier for regional influence’. Conversely, we may want the Americans to stop the drone strikes or side with us in the event of a war with India – and neither is going to happen. The USA and Pakistan need to build a relationship based on more realistic expectations of one another, and begin to address the powerful sense of betrayal felt by a majority in Pakistan – and presumably no less in the USA. Husain Haqqani said that our military needs to be under tighter civilian control and that currently our national interests were defined by generals and not by civilian leaders. He was critical of US policy-making calling it short-sighted and lacking historical perspective, and critical of Pakistan saying it behaves like Syria but wants to be treated like Israel (by the US). There is a bitter stagnation about our relations with the USA. How we might shape a post alliance future is unclear, but the divorce option is on the table. It remains to be seen whether our own foreign policy-makers choose to pick it up.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Commission controversy

August 25, 2012

Earlier in May this year, after demands for new provinces gained strength, the Punjab Assembly unanimously passed two resolutions for the creation of the South Punjab and Bahawalpur provinces. Just days before this, the National Assembly had also passed its own resolution for a South Punjab province. At the time, the PML-N had begrudgingly backed out of its opposition, particularly to a South Punjab province, by extracting promises from the coalition government on several counts, most importantly that a grand commission would be set up to work out the process leading to new provinces. Thus, on popular demand, in pursuance of orders from President Zardari and after receiving authorisation by the National Assembly, the NA speaker constituted on August 16 a 14-member parliamentary commission for the creation of new provinces in Punjab. The commission is to hold its first meeting on August 28, but the PML-N, it seems now, is no more willing to play ball. A bewildering situation arose when the names of the commission members were announced and it became known that three of them were from the PML-N. However, not one member of the party had any idea who had nominated them. It later turned out that the secretary National Assembly had sent six reminders seeking nominations from various offices of the PML-N, including the opposition leader, but received no response. The government then communicated to the PML-N that three of its members had been nominated – but the radio silence persisted.

Now that the commission’s first meeting is called for August 28 and the PML-N has finally expressed displeasure with the arbitrariness of the process, the government has requested the N-League to re-submit its nominations in time to be able to attend the scheduled meeting. But as things stand, the PML-N high command has forbidden its members from participating in the meeting. Thus, while the president wanted quick movement on the creation of new provinces, it looks like the process stands scuttled for now. The Speaker of the Punjab Assembly is also considering taking the entire matter to the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The question arises: under what authority did the government decide to go ahead and arbitrarily nominate members on behalf of the PML-N? Regardless of the lack of response from the PML-N, was the government authorised to go ahead with the nominations anyway? It would not be unfair to say, then, that the government acted in haste and has now created a situation in which the PML-N has found an opening to employ delaying tactics and stymie the process once more. To avoid further controversy, the best course of action would be for the government to de-notify the PML-N members of the commission, which it had no right to notify in the first instance. It should then invite, once again, the PML-N leadership to recommend the names of its members, and hopefully, the party will relent. August 28, after all, is not a sacrosanct date. The meeting can be postponed because the process of creating new provinces requires widespread consensus and cannot be undertaken without the PML-N’s participation. Both sides must eschew making this an issue of personal egos. We are dealing here with a matter that will not only see a change in the complexion of Punjab but also set in motion the larger project of reshaping Pakistan to cater to emerging social and political realities. The issue must thus be treated with the gravitas, restraint and maturity it deserves.

Pricing pains

August 25, 2012

The cost of daily living never seems to get any cheaper. New prices for petroleum products came into effect on Thursday with petrol up by Rs3.21 a litre to Rs96.78. High Speed Diesel is up by Rs4.40 to Rs106.19 and it has been announced that the prices of POL products are henceforward to be adjusted weekly rather than fortnightly. Those who run their cars on CNG fare no better. In Region 1 (the north of the country but including Balochistan) it has gone up by Rs3.21 to Rs88.61/kg; and in Region 2 (Punjab and Sindh) by Rs2.68 to Rs80.94/kg. The gap between petrol and gas prices narrows even further as the CNG experiment sputters to an end. In Karachi, the price of milk is in contention. Milk is a daily staple for most people along with rice and flour, and fluctuations in its price can negatively impact particularly on the poorest in society. The milk retailers are protesting that the commissioner of Karachi had fixed the price of milk at Rs60 earlier in the year, later revised to Rs70, and this did not properly reflect the production costs and that their profit margin had been decreased. Currently milk is selling for between Rs74 and Rs76 in the metropolis, profiteering is rampant and indifferently controlled by the city administration.

To the above examples of rising prices must be added the cost of electricity - for however little time it is available. Over the last three years, the government has increased the power tariff by two-and-a half times. With the price of electricity linked to the international price of oil and with much of our generation system dependent upon oil we have to import, making further rises inevitable. Taken individually these price rises of essential products and utilities suggest a steady upwards inflationary spiral, but paradoxically our inflation rate against the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to 9.6 percent, the lowest in the region as Prime Minister Ashraf was recently keen to point out. Against a historical high of 25.3 percent in August 2008 this is a significant downwards trend and would suggest that our economy is healthier than we feel that it is at an individual and grassroots level. But macro-economics is not about the common man or woman. Wages have not kept pace with inflation in general, unemployment has risen alongside the chronic power shortages that cripple industries small and large, and there has been no reduction in food insecurity. Almost 40 percent of the people in this country are hungry every day. They are unlikely to have been cheered by the inflation rate dropping into single digits. The yawning gap between official figures and the ground reality remains unexplained.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Are we closer to doomsday?

August 26, 2012

As August 27 – the date for the next hearing in the NRO implementation case – rambles closer, the ruling party is anxiously trying to finalise its strategy on Prime Minister Ashraf’s appearance before the Supreme Court. Opinion seems to be divided on this question as much as it is divided on the question of whether or not to write the letter and at least two camps have emerged. There is, on the one side, the camp led by the attorney general who made clear on Friday that the PM is more powerful than the judges and therefore not accountable to the courts – that is, the prime minister should defy the court on August 27 and need not appear before it. However, there are also saner elements within the party pushing to find a ‘middle way’ out of the executive-judiciary standoff as urged by the Justice Khosa-led bench on July 25. This camp suggests that the letter should indeed be written as directed but only if it is accompanied by the court’s explicit ruling, as promised on July 25, that the president enjoys complete immunity from all kinds of litigation and, therefore, cannot be dragged to the courts either inside or outside Pakistan. PPP leaders in favour of writing the letter, who understand that the ruling party simply cannot ignore the court any more, are looking at this ‘middle path’ as the only way out of the political mess. So the question remains: come Aug 27, which way will the PPP go – the path of confrontation or the route to rapprochement and reconciliation?

If media reports are to be believed, a majority of those present at the PPP’s Core Committee meeting this Friday seemed to be in agreement with the ruling party’s legal team that as per the Constitution, the prime minister was not bound to appear before the court on August 27. One can only hope that the PPP will know better than to settle on this as its official line. Given that the executive-judiciary confrontation has taken a heavy toll on the country in all respects and that the Khosa bench has itself offered an olive branch despite the government’s continuing intransigence, it boggles the mind that the PPP would even consider upping the ante at this point instead of finding a workable solution. As the general election looms closer, and the composition of the caretaker set-up preoccupies the country, the PPP needs to be an accessory to stability, not a harbinger of further uncertainty. Nobody should be under any illusion that the court will not go the sack-a-prime-minister route again if the PPP does not comply with court orders. Justice Khosa himself made this very clear when he highlighted the difference between the ruling party and the bench: while the former could recalibrate and readjust its strategy, the bench can only rule according to the law; it has no escape route. But an opportunity for rapprochement exists and the PPP must grab it. It must put this letter saga behind it and concentrate on what it elected to do in the first place: implement whatever improved governance is possible. That is the only way it can salvage its badly smashed reputation before the elections arrive. Destabilisation of the system once more and encouragement to extra-constitutional forces to meddle in affairs that don’t concern them are not options the PPP can afford to flirt with. On the other hand, if it decides to grab onto the olive branch the judges have held forward, the government may just be able to prevent a potentially devastating chain of events from being unleashed on the country.

Policy not rhetoric

August 26, 2012

The economic conditions through which Pakistan is living reflect a disgraceful renunciation of responsibility by a government that has committed millions of people to unwarranted and needless adversity and great angst about their future prospects. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf claims to have a plan out of this mess. This Friday, the party announced a five-pillar emergency reforms programme that gives “priority to the education and health sectors” and is aimed at “deep reforms that would make state institutions empowered, accountable and transparent.” The salient features of the policy include a modern education system for all Pakistanis, a free health care system for the poor, reducing cost of producing electricity from indigenous resources, shutting down the PM House, the chief minister and governor houses, slashing the budget of the Presidency by 50 per cent, reducing ministries from 37 to 17, cutting spending of all state departments including the military, converting lavish government-owned buildings into educational institutions and taxing all income groups regardless of source. All great ideas but what do we do with them? Indeed, the PTI’s economic policy plan gets full marks for intention and vision but has very little to show in terms of how exactly it will make Pakistan’s economic dreams come true.

At the heart of this new economic plan is a partial misdiagnosis of the problem and a serious failure to understand why the Pakistani economy has tanked. There are two ways to gauge the economy. The first is the short cut – piling up rhetoric about the failed economic policies of opponents and listing opposite theories. The other is combing meticulously through the data, trends and history, figuring out the structural and systematic problems and then recommending fitting solutions. Leafing through PTI’s economic plan, it looks more like a political document than an economic one, animated more by the intention to point out the failings in existing policies than to explain how meaningful changes will be made. Merely listing what the party will do is not enough – how it will achieve these daunting milestones where others have failed is what we wanted to hear this Friday but didn’t. What the PTI needs to show us is a serious new framework through which this economy can be put back on the road to recovery. We don’t need more political rhetoric masquerading as economic policy. Of course, it is commendable that PTI has decided to engage in this public exercise of policy-making and we call other mainstream parties to do the same. However, for such exercises to amount to anything substantial, they have to be more than just opportunities to hit out at opponents.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga