(6th May 2013)

Intolerant world

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom has issued a report that paints a picture of a world that is growing less tolerant of religious minorities. In the last year, the situation has worsened in China, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia – and Pakistan. The report advises the American government to designate Pakistan as a ‘country of particular concern’, which means that Pakistan could be subject to sanctions if so listed. Violations of religious freedoms have risen to ‘unprecedented’ levels as a result of chronic sectarian violence, and a failure to protect the Hindu, Christian and Ahmadi minorities. The Hazaras have been persecuted unremittingly, and carry the largest burden of casualties and fatalities. The blasphemy laws are widely and inappropriately used in pursuit of personal and petty grievances and false accusations of blasphemy can have appalling and often fatal consequences. Pakistan is the location of the most serious violations of religious freedoms out of countries not already blacklisted.

There has been a global growth in the climate of intolerance, often with the tacit or overt support of the state. However -and this is important – Muslim countries do not have exclusivity when it comes to intolerance. Secular western states can be intolerant too; the ban on the veil for women in France and Belgium is cited as worthy of particular note. Where the report fails is that it does not examine religious intolerance on its own doorstep – the US, where in the last year a Sikh temple was attacked leaving six dead. The appalling plight of the Rohingya Muslim people in Myanmar is noted in detail, confirming that they may be ‘the most persecuted minority on Earth’, and the report advises that the US retain the option of re-imposing sanctions on Myanmar if its government does not act to protect the Rohingya. In many respects the report tells us little that we did not already know, but there is a disturbing commonality about religious intolerance and the limiting of religious freedoms. The story is the same everywhere – the strong oppressing the weak or powerless, people whose only ‘crime’ is that they believe or worship differently to the majority. This is a global malaise that shames countries everywhere and the report will gather dust everywhere as well, ignored and shelved as the world moves towards ever greater polarity.

Higher education

Higher education in Pakistan is mostly a mishmash of mediocre teaching, of students who come into the system poorly educated in the first place, and who take degrees that lack any international status. There are bright spots but they tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Faculty members are often found engaged in plagiarism. Students who seek further education after one such degree in Pakistan find themselves locked in a cycle that requires them to re-qualify for their academic credentials; and those seeking employment and presenting their locally-gained degrees find themselves not even making it to the long-list of potential interviewees.

As the country approaches a historic election and a civilian transition of power, education has featured towards the bottom of most party manifestos with the exception of the PTI which has said it will declare an ‘education emergency’ if it comes to power. Others have claimed commitments to education in broad terms, but none have said how they are going to turn around the education juggernaut at the higher level to produce the skilled and trained graduates that are going to be necessary in quantity if we are ever to become a knowledge-based economy. The HEC, which was formed to reform and improve the system has limited powers and has been unable to bring uniform standards to universities across the country. Politicians, rather than educationalists, hold the reins of power, and are closely engaged in key academic appointments to the benefit of none but themselves. If there is a single issue that the incoming government should immediately commit to a resolution of, it is an upgrading of commitment to higher education across the country, the establishment of uniform standards and an end to the perpetuation of mediocrity via political preferment in faculty appointments. This is a battle the winning of which is within our capacity and grasp. Let us hope we manage to at least start it at the earliest opportunity.

(7th May 2013)

Nawaz’s stance

What will Pakistan’s landscape look like, in terms of policy, in the years ahead? Are we to see major changes? The way ahead – no doubt a matter of much importance – was apparently defined, to some degree at least, on Sunday by the PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif. He is being seen in many circles as the man most likely to assume charge of the country after May 11, possibly in coalition with ‘like-minded’ parties as Sharif himself said in an interview to a news agency. During the course of the interview, the PML-N leader suggested that a dramatic change in strategy with regard to the war on militancy should be considered. According to him, Islamabad needs to consider reviewing its support for the US-led war on terror, and should also open negotiations with the Taliban as a means to find that elusive peace the country so badly needs. Sharif, accused in the past of being ‘soft’ on militants, said ending militancy would be his first priority, but that guns were not necessarily the only means to achieve this. This stance on how to handle the ‘war on terror’ is not entirely new; PML-N leaders have indicated on previous occasions as well that they believe in talks with the Taliban.

On the face of it, the PML-N’s line may not go down well with Washington, or perhaps even the Pakistan Army which has recently declared militants to be the biggest threat to internal security. General Kayani has also said more than once that civilian help is needed to eliminate militancy. Sharif’s stance could then bring its own set of problems, even though it may have popular support. It has to be said though that, notwithstanding what the army and the politicians say – mostly for media consumption – on different occasions, in the final analysis it may very well be the ‘hard geopolitical realities’ for the army and the trappings of power for the politicians that will ultimately determine what actually happens. Like others who advocate talks with the Taliban, nothing has been said by the PML-N on any forum about the points for talks with a group which, in terms of ideology, envisages taking over the state and imposing its own version of Shariah laws.

The policy of sitting down at a table and negotiating with murderers will be questioned by many. But the fact remains that this is a war in which both talks and battles have their place and relevance. This has also been demonstrated by the US approach to its Afghanistan problem. Much more important is the question of the relative positions of those engaged in talks – whether it’s a point of strength you speak from or a position of weakness you find yourself in. Attempts at negotiations with the Taliban in the past have failed. Nawaz, if he means what he is saying, will need to ponder all this carefully. In a separate interview the same day he also spoke of opening an investigation into the Mumbai and Kargil incidents, and emphasised that the appointment of the army chief would be made on constitutional lines. Though some may question why he had to raise this issue prematurely, this is how it should be, and this also is what remains to be seen. What has been spelt out thus by Nawaz Sharif may lead to some fairly intense thinking in several centres of power, given the implications for the region and for all those, including the people of Pakistan, involved in it. And the people have every right to expect that their lives will be a bit safer as a result of what follows.

Stuffed steel

Like PIA, the other significant casualty of the last five years of witless incompetence, Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM), is adding itself to the piles of wreckage that are state entities. Last week caretaker PM Hazar Khan Khoso called a meeting to consider yet another bailout package for PSM – to the value of Rs16 billion. In what was probably a moment of panic, the finance division objected and asked the meeting be rescheduled till Saturday, which it was. During the Saturday meeting, the PM directed the Ministry of Finance to work with the Ministry of Production and PSM’s management to work out a financial package. He also constituted a committee to work out a business plan as soon as possible. At the heart of the problem is the same malaise that has infected all state entities – political appointments to technocratic posts, political interference at every level of operation and planning, and rank incompetents being given a free hand to do as they will with total disregard to the consequences. In plain words, blatant favouritism and corruption. If there is a single connecting factor in the death of these state entities it is the dead hand of the government of the last five years.

A group calling itself the ‘Voice of Pakistan Steel Officers’ has written to the ministry of production and the finance division laying the case out with depressing clarity. Their argument is that rather than throwing money at the problem – money that would go to waste or simply get ‘lost’ – it is better to reorganise within existing resources, using in-house competencies that are apolitical (in the sense of not being political appointees). The board of directors are all politically appointed and it is difficult to find any senior position that has not been filled by a political appointee since 2008. Performance has plummeted since 2008. It was at 82 percent in 2007 and PSM was in reasonable health, notwithstanding the fact that it was based around old Soviet-era technologies. This came down to 12 percent in 2012-13. There are accumulated losses of Rs93 billion between July 2008 and April 2013; and liabilities of Rs102 billion in the same period. Tossing Rs16 billion into the pot is going to make little or no difference given the scale of decay. This was an organisation in profit between the turn of the century and 2008, but its fate now truly hangs in the balance. The letter concludes that there is the potential, even at this late stage, to turn things around but only if there is a separation of enterprise and politics. The appointment of a technocrat management free of political entanglement is a better solution than a shower of disappearing money – which is perhaps what prompted the finance division to object in the first place.

__________________
Yes We Can Do It!

(8th May 2013)

Way of violence

There seems to be no escape at all from the frenzied violence that has marked the coming elections. The death toll increases almost daily, with polling already having had to be cancelled on one seat each in Karachi, Hyderabad and Kohat where candidates have been killed. Others have only narrowly escaped death. In a break from what was being seen as a pattern of specific parties being targeted, the JUI-F suffered violent attacks on Monday and Tuesday. Munir Orakzai, the party’s candidate for NA-38 in Kurram Agency, was targeted on Monday. There are conflicting reports over whether this was a suicide bombing or whether an explosive device had been planted at the site of the location where he was addressing supporters. Twenty-five people are reported dead, and over 70 injured. While local leaders of the JUI-F – a party not on the TTP’s ‘list’ of targeted political parties till now – denied they had been attacked, some reports say TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan has said the bombing was directed against Munir Orakzai for his actions against ‘mujahideen’ in the past. The complications deepened on Tuesday when another JUI-F rally was targeted in the main bazaar of Hangu, killing at least 12 people. Tuesday also saw a PPP rally targeted in Lower Dir, leading to six deaths.

So what we have here now is a situation where, quite clearly, no one is safe. Contrary to common perception, the TTP doesn’t seem to be discriminating much when it comes to violence. Each political party is a target, as is democracy itself. Can we survive so much agony and this much bloodshed? There are other reports too of sporadic, election-related violence across the country – particularly in Karachi and Balochistan. The Sindh caretaker government has spoken of a major security threat hanging over the city; and mobile phone services are likely to be suspended on Election Day. In Punjab too there are fears, with a six-day closure of educational institutions announced. The ECP has responded to the rapidly deteriorating security situation by deciding that nine or ten, instead of seven, security personnel will be present at ‘sensitive’ polling stations and five instead of four at others. The army top brass, including COAS Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, has also met in Karachi to review security and troop deployment, in keeping with ECP directives. The army will act as a ‘rapid response’ force but will not be posted inside polling stations. Following the meeting, 10,000 troops have begun to be deployed in Karachi. But for all these efforts, fear of more violence persists. We wait to see what impact this will have on polling and voter turnout. But there can be little doubt that, tragically, violence has emerged as a key player in these polls. Too many have already been killed, and there is a very real risk that the number could increase in the coming days. The killings have been condemned, but the real question for us now is if they can be stopped.

Kabul mind games

It appears that President Karzai of Afghanistan has decided that there is a need to redraw the Durand Line and thus the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. No matter the history, the modern reality is that the Durand Line is the international border between the two countries. Exhuming the debate at this time is an unwarranted distraction. That is the view of Pakistan’s Foreign Office which made a sharp statement to that effect on Monday, though that is unlikely to affect Karzai much. President Karzai had other worrisome things to say, notably that he had urged the Taliban to ‘turn their weapons’ against those who ‘plot’ against Afghanistan. Afghanistan seems to certainly like its conspiracy theories and President Karzai’s theory and ‘plot’ of choice for now is that Pakistan is the enemy and the root of all that is bad in Afghanistan, and that it is for the Taliban to hold the gates against the tide from the south-east. The subtext of Karzai’s new-found enthusiasm for having the Taliban fight on his side may be the ever-bubbling ‘Greater Afghanistan’ vision that has been around for generations. The Taliban part of that vision is to push the border, and move the Durand Line, in pursuit of that. This is not the best time to be articulating, however vaguely, thoughts of redrawing the map.

If ever there was a need for a workable unity between Pakistan and Afghanistan it is now. How this relationship plays out in the next three or four years is going to determine the future stability of the entire region – as well as the internal stability of both countries. The border has always been vulnerable and contentious – from the moment the line was arbitrarily drawn on the map – but history cannot be reworked like this. Bringing contention to the table at this stage of play is both dangerous and profoundly irresponsible, and one wonders which audience President Karzai was speaking to when he made his statements. They exemplify the growing desperation of the Karzai government, such as it is, and of a man who sees his own future becoming insignificant. The concept of succession-planning in Afghanistan has hardly ever moved beyond regicide, and a succession is imminent. The clashes on the border of Nangarhar province are a sideshow – nobody is going to invade anybody, at least not in force or in depth – but the Karzai doctrine of managed instability in pursuit of an expansionist dream is a folly. An urgent course of reality-therapy is strongly indicated for both President Karzai and those he is surrounded by. It appears the shopping bags of CIA dollars are taking his flight of imagination to new heights.

__________________
Yes We Can Do It!

(9th May 2013)

Close shave

Things could so easily have ended in true tragedy. The PTI chief Imran Khan is a fortunate man indeed to have escaped largely safe – with minor injuries – from his fall off a rather rickety lifter at a rally in Lahore. The sight of the leader’s fall Tuesday evening created an immediate wave of panic and fervent prayer till news came in that he was safe. For this we must be thankful. The arrangements made to raise Imran to the stage were obviously ill-planned; it is true political rallies with large crowds have their own particular problems and mishaps have occurred before. But the welfare of all present at these events needs to be made a priority by every party. Imran himself has done well to dismiss the conspiracy theories doing the rounds and put the incident down to plain and simple human error.

Imran has also demonstrated remarkable courage – and sincerity. His talk to the media from a hospital bed at his own Shaukat Khanum Hospital was touchingly simple, as he asked voters to vote on May 11 and spoke of his 17-year-long struggle towards this political goal. The words united a divided nation, as they rallied behind a man who bears the status of a hero. This mishap may also have an actual impact on polling, creating a sympathy wave in his favour. While the PTI had cancelled the eight election rallies it still had planned before campaigning ends on Thursday, Imran has decided to address a rally in Islamabad over the telephone from his hospital bed while nursing two fractures. His determination is extraordinary. In a highly positive turn of events, other parties have also shown good spirit, with the PML-N and the MQM cancelling rallies. PPP leaders have called in; the Punjab caretaker chief minister Najam Sethi has spent long hours at the hospital. These are all good signs. The episode, though of course we would wish it had never occurred, has in a way humanised our people and our politics. Tragedy often does so; although we, who have become so used to mourning, can breathe a collective sigh of relief that this particular incident has turned out well in the end. Attention can now start to shift back to the electoral quest itself, with predictions still impossible to make as Election Day draws closer by the minute.

Sanaullah’s plight

Sanaullah Ranjay lies at death’s door in an Indian hospital. He has been pronounced brain-dead. The Indians seem to have done as much for his hopeless case as was done for the Indian spy Sarabjit when he was attacked in prison here in Pakistan, later dying. Given the animosity that simmers constantly between India and Pakistan, it is not surprising that – in the hot-house atmosphere of a prison – inmates from both countries will try to harm each other, sometimes fatally. A tit-for-tat attack was to be expected after Sarabjit’s death, and an ex-Indian army soldier did the deed. We are never going to be told whether Sanaullah was set up for the attack, or if the jail authorities turned a blind eye and a deaf ear and deliberately failed to protect him.

The Sarabjit-Sanaullah assaults have further aggravated already-tense relations between India and Pakistan. With tempers flaring on both sides of the border, the usual blame game has started. The Indians are seething over Sarabjit’s death while Pakistan is questioning why Sanaullah was exposed to such an attack. Pakistan has urged the Indian government to release Sanaullah on humanitarian grounds but so far New Delhi hasn’t paid much heed to this request. The assault that ended his life should not have been allowed to happen. However, two wrongs don’t make a right. A Pakistani prisoner serving his time in an Indian jail did not deserve a similar fate. Sanaullah should have received better protection especially after it was feared that the Sarabjit episode could ignite hostilities against Pakistani prisoners languishing in Indian jails. What happened to Sarabjit and Sanaullah is a telling reminder of where Pakistan and India stand when it comes to bilateral relations. Both nations remain trigger-happy at a time when peace and harmony are sorely needed in the region. As in the past, tit-for-tat policies will only prove to be counter-productive.

Bloody battles

If there is one ‘party’ that can be said to have fulfilled its manifesto even before the polls have started it is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Day after day bombings which it claims to have carried out kill and maim dozens, the purpose being to deter voters and candidates. It must be presumed that the militants will continue until the polls are over, or even afterwards. The TTP was never going to get elected by conventional means – its contempt for democracy and its processes clear for all to see. There is a day to go before the elections, which are going ahead despite the slaughter. So what has the TTP achieved?

Election-related violence killed 18 and injured 56 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Tuesday. So far the incidents have gone unclaimed but a strong assumption is that the TTP was behind them. The attacks took place in Swabi, Hangu and Timergara and appeared to target the JUI-F. Shops, shopkeepers and a school bus that was passing at the time became collateral damage in the attacks. Two children died. This, unfortunately, is a familiar picture and one that speaks volumes of the TTP’s success in terms of rendering the state unable to protect its citizenry. On the evidence of survivors and witnesses, the various check posts and patrols by the army and the police had failed to stop the bombers. It was, as almost always, also a failure of intelligence. One part of the battle at least the TTP can be said to have won – the battle against the writ of the state. But it has yet to win its battle against the people, those who die or are maimed every day as they go about their lawful business. They now take it as an inevitable hazard. The TTP is hardly fussy about whom it targets – religious or secular, any democrat is a good enough target, any voter in the bullseye no matter which party they support. But it is the battle against those people – the ordinary men, women and children who persistently refuse to give in to extremism and terror tactics – that the TTP has lost.

__________________
Yes We Can Do It!

10/05/2013

The unsafe

There has been yet another fire-related tragedy – this time in Lahore. A little after noon on Thursday, a fire broke out at the LDA Plaza. It is a multi-storey building and three floors were quickly ablaze, trapping those above the fire. Some of the people in the building fled to the roof while some others resorted to turning to risky escape routes – using improvised ropes. Although fire-engines were at the scene relatively quickly, the equipment was not equal to firefighting on the upper floors of a tall building. At the time of writing this, the reported number of people killed in the fire is at least eight – and the fire continues to blaze. The real damage then will only be clear once the fire is tackled and rescue workers enter the building. It is also as yet unclear what fire safety provisions were in place in the building. There was some brave and skillful piloting by helicopter crews that came to the rescue of those who had escaped to the roof, but they were of little use to those whose lives hung by a thread on the side of the building.
Public safety has never been high on the agenda of anybody in Pakistan, and there is an almost universal lack of risk-awareness. Children in schools are not taught to be risk-aware; and a leading politician lies in hospital on the eve of the election because nobody exercised the common sense that would have stopped them using an unstable fork-lift truck to raise a pallet 20 feet in the air on which stood four or five people with no means of steadying themselves. It is too early to say what caused the fire in the LDA Plaza, but such incidents – industrial accidents in high-rise buildings – are on the increase in Pakistan. Constructing buildings without adequate safety infrastructure is criminal neglect; equally criminal are those local administrations that do not ensure that public emergency services match the commercial developments of an increasingly urban population. Fire incidents occur almost every other month, or at times several in a day. Unfortunately these tragedies have failed to move the authorities to take measures that can lead to a change. This time around too it would be futile to hope that those responsible will be made to pay for their negligence. Or should we expect better from the caretakers?

Cricket ‘election’

Just two days before the May 11 general elections, the Pakistan Cricket Board chairman Zaka Ashraf got himself ‘elected’ as the board’s chief for a four-year term starting Wednesday. Shrouded in secrecy, the election for the PCB chairman was held hastily in Islamabad without proper involvement of all stakeholders. That is why it was hardly surprising when Ashraf – touted by his supporters as the ‘first elected chairman’ of the cricket board – faced stiff resistance just hours after his election, with presidents of two regional associations challenging it in the Lahore High Court. A day later, former Pakistan captain Rashid Latif also announced that he would file a petition in the Sindh High Court against what he termed as the ‘unlawful election’ of the PCB chairman.
Ashraf has already been serving as the PCB boss since 2011 when President Asif Ali Zardari – the PCB’s patron-in-chief – named him as former PCB chairman Ijaz Butt’s successor. At the time of his appointment, Ashraf was a cricketing nobody and it was common knowledge that the prime reason behind his selection was his close association with the president. Having spent around 20 months as the most influential man in Pakistan cricket, Ashraf apparently wants to prolong his stint by becoming a ‘democratically elected’ chairman rather than a ‘nominated’ one. He hardly deserves this position after having been tried, and then having failed to take any concrete steps to put cricket in Pakistan on the right track. Small achievements like a brief tour of India were overshadowed by disappointments like the proposed home series against Bangladesh that never materialised or the Pakistan Super League (PSL) that crashed without even taking off. Cricket is one of the few remaining things in Pakistan that still give people of this violence-hit country something to look forward to. What Pakistan cricket needs and deserves is sincere and competent leadership. For this, it is important that free and fair elections are held to elect top office-bearers – especially for the position of the PCB chairman. Otherwise there is little hope for the future of Pakistan cricket.

Dark days

The dark shadow of loadshedding has been following us around for many years now. And it doesn’t seem to be going away – instead becoming darker and much more difficult to ignore. Although the government has announced a power schedule for polling day, and claimed that people will have electricity during the day Saturday, there are really no guarantees that will actually happen. There is unfortunately every chance we may not be able to avoid power cuts even on this vital day. The caretaker minister for water and power, Dr Musadik Malik has not received either the Rs35 billion or the supply of gas required to settle circular debt, pay Pakistan State Oil and thus achieve power production. Indeed, the minister says even the amount of Rs45 billion promised to him to cope with the power problem has not been delivered and so far only Rs10 billion have been released to his ministry. Dr Malik, who obviously seems frustrated over the hopelessness of the situation, had originally demanded Rs150 billion.
This is not surprising at all. The power problem is one we have failed to deal with for a very long time. Matters have now reached a point where major efforts are needed, at least in the short term, to make sure power is available on May 11. And long-term efforts are needed to put in place some means to generate enough electricity on a regular basis to meet the country’s needs. We all know now that this is a problem of payment as much as power production itself. Punjab’s caretaker Chief Minister Najam Sethi has also commented on the damaging effect the power crisis is having on both agriculture and industry and told a media delegation that he had met with the president of Pakistan to discuss the situation. The country’s power crisis needs a wide ranging solution – one that addresses all of its aspects. Quite clearly, past policies have failed. We need to handle this issue differently now – since past efforts have clearly not worked out. The energy crisis needs to be tackled so that we can try and live our lives with some sense of normalcy – at least in some ways. This dark shroud is threatening to smother us and deprive us of much that we need to progress as a nation.

__________________
Janoon say or Ishq say milti hay AAZADI

11/05/2013

The wait is over

The day we have been waiting for these past few weeks and months is finally here. Across the country today people will be making their way to polling stations and casting their votes – both fulfilling a democratic responsibility and exercising a right. By early Sunday we should be able to put together enough pieces of the jigsaw to gain some idea of what the picture looks like. Right now, it is almost impossible to say; even the most experienced pundits are unwilling to call this election, with many uncertainties making predictions hard. The PTI factor has managed to add most to this uncertainty, the youth vote becoming highly important. But traditional strongholds also remain intact, making the 2013 elections one of the most closely-watched and fascinating polls we have experienced. And this significance is not just imagined; power is to be transferred in a constitutional fashion from one democratically elected government to another for the first time in our nation. This is a milestone that cannot be ignored. The worth of these elections can be better evaluated when we look back at the messy, ugly transitions of the past – first in 1977, and then during that stormy period that stretched through the late 1980s and 1990s, when elected governments tumbled like ninepins, that era ending in a new dictatorship.
Perhaps 2013 will mark the year when we set out on a different road, the democratic handover this time round consistently and strongly supported by every institution of the state. This too is a distinct break from the past. Perhaps we have finally moved towards the realisation that the only hope for us lies in holding on to democracy, and ensuring it moves forward. But we have also seen how patchy and rough this road can be, with the campaign leading up to this day facing trouble at every step. Violence has been a regular feature these elections in the form of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan targeting three parties – the ANP, the MQM and the PPP – who they see as ideological foes. According to figures given by monitoring groups, at least 80 persons died in terrorist violence in April 2013 alone. Polling has been cancelled in one constituency each in Karachi, Hyderabad and Kohat due to the death of a candidate. The ANP, the principal victim of the bloodshed, has said fair polls are impossible in this situation. Campaigns have been affected as well. Both the ANP and the PPP’s campaigns remained low key due to these security risks. And then right on the last day of campaigning, this violence and fear showed itself once again when Ali Haider Gilani, one of the three sons of former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was kidnapped in broad daylight in Multan just ahead of a corner meeting by gunmen who approached his car and killed his private secretary. The fate of Ali Haider, also a candidate for provincial seat PP-200 remains unknown. One can safely say these are not the most ideal of circumstances for elections.
The terrible violence does not limit itself to individual targets; we can only hope it will not affect voter turnout today. There is a real need for people to come out and vote if this election is to have true legitimacy and act to strengthen democracy in our country. If people feel they are unable to vote, this could in many ways count as a victory for forces like the Taliban who have tried their very best to sabotage this process which stands at the centre of our system. We must also hope that polling day today itself passes peacefully and the aftermath too remains calm as the results are announced. Tensions between some parties and groups run high, but what we need of them now is to show the good sense to make sure verdicts are accepted and the decision of the people allowed is to reign. The performance of the Election Commission of Pakistan will of course also be closely watched, in terms of both providing adequate security and the transparency of the poll itself. The results will soon be known to all. A period of coalition-forming may begin, according to some forecasts, but whatever happens, we must hope that things in the country remain peaceful. Let us hope that at the end of it all we can genuinely boast of a true handover of power as per the constitution. Let us hope we can set new traditions of democracy and perseverance in the face of such troubling circumstances.

Where’s the ECP?

Two days ago, a private TV channel showed footage of two persons on a motorcycle taking away around six big blue bags full of ballot papers from Karachi seat NA-244. The footage also showed the man in charge of the election stating that he would release these ballot bags on the night of May 10 under police escort so that security is maintained. But the two boys caught on tape were openly belying his statement – a clear sign that someone somewhere was complicit in allowing vote rigging, two days ahead of polling day. The footage was never denied and it has been reported in the media and discussed on some TV talk shows. But surprisingly the ECP remains totally silent and oblivious of this blatant public display of violation of all its codes, rules and claims.
If this one incident was caught on tape, how many other such cases have gone unnoticed? This would, to some extent, explain why some political parties in Karachi always remain so confident that they do not bother about any serious campaigning or even do not mind postponement of the polls because they are sure that, when the time comes, they will ‘handle’ matters to their advantage. The least the ECP should have been able to do was order a probe, and ask authorities to arrest the two motorcyclists as their registration number was clearly visible. It should have stopped polling on this one NA seat immediately. That has not been done, but can be done even now if the ECP wants to save whatever little is left of its credibility. The ECP has acquired the image of a useless organisation that cannot get anything right. Not one person has been disqualified on the basis of anything that might have been wrong – fake degrees, tax evasion, loan defaults etc. But this is a case of stealing the polls and if this also goes unnoticed, the ECP will forever be known as a dummy, operated through remote control.

__________________
Janoon say or Ishq say milti hay AAZADI

13/05/2013

We begin again

The results from the 2013 polls – being ranked by some as the most significant in our history – are in. Perhaps there was no nationwide tsunami, but there has certainly been a pretty big storm. The decision of the voters has been clear and unambiguous – they wanted and voted for change. This is the beauty of democracy. They have given clear mandates. Voter turnout was high, official figures placing it at 60 percent, and the message sent out by the electorate has been loud and clear and one that cannot be ignored. The new government in the centre will be led by the PML-N. Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif brings to this third term in office a great deal of experience and, we hope, greater maturity than that exhibited in 1990 and 1997. The doors to a third term as prime minister were opened to him by the 18th Amendment passed in 2010, ending the two-term restriction for prime ministers and chief ministers. Already very close to gaining 130 seats in the 342-member National Assembly – other results still coming in and with reserved seats yet to be filled – the PML-N clearly enjoys a strong position. Its domination has surprised many – even if the victory itself was not unexpected. Political analysts had, more or less, predicted the party’s win. The PML-N now has the choice of going solo, as far as forming government is concerned – or it may, in the interests of federalism and national unity, take in a few smaller partners. These choices come later as the task of government-formation begins.
What we now have is a drastically altered National Assembly. The parties that had formed the ruling coalition after 2008 have suffered the most. The PPP has faced a huge setback – thrust firmly to the sidelines, able to retain control only in Sindh. Even in this traditional stronghold of the PPP, it saw inroads being made by other parties, including the PML-F and the PML-N. The people’s verdict cannot be faulted. This is a reflection of what they thought of the PPP’s governance, its inept management of national affairs and the massive corruption that marred the period between 2008 and 2013. The party stands duly punished and the people have -more effectively than any other force – shown just what they think of leaders who fail to address national issues. Among the fallen traditional politicians are the two former prime ministers – Raja Pervaiz Ashraf and Yousuf Raza Gilani, whose influence in Multan has been wiped off the slate.
The PPP seems to have slipped behind the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. For a party as inexperienced as Imran’s PTI, this is a remarkable outcome. Any experience it lacks should be made up with the time it spends in the opposition. The party has emerged as a genuine force, and its supporters – disappointed though they are – should be proud. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the party did indeed create a mini tsunami – sweeping away the ANP, knocking away pillars of power such as Haji Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, defeated by Imran Khan from NA-1. The PTI can form the next government there and how it handles the key issue of militancy may well decide much about our future. The MQM, in the centre, will most likely sit on opposition benches. The Balochistan picture is still a little unclear. There has been a specific pattern to Election 2013. People have voted against tradition, and made their choice clear. The question now is whether the PML-N will be able to deliver on its promises. Once the celebrations are over, will the party seriously plan the economic revival and energy crisis resolution it has promised? The extent to which it manages to deal with these matters will determine what is in store in the next five years – and how Pakistan will look like then.

Electoral ruins of Karachi

The Election Commission of Pakistan has conceded it failed to hold fair and free polls in Karachi. The failure had become clear soon after polling began on Saturday, with voters returning with ballots uncast from some polling stations because staff and material had not arrived. More serious allegations of stations being ‘captured’ and ballots cast in favour of certain parties being destroyed have also emerged. There have been media reports – some as videos sent in by concerned citizens – of outright rigging. One of the most troubled constituencies in this regard was NA-250, where people waited for hours to vote but, in some cases, couldn’t – even after voting hours were extended. The ECP has ordered re-polling in NA-250 and at least 30 other polling stations. The PTI has demanded re-polling across the city and the ECP said on Sunday the situation was under review as to what really happened in Karachi.
Such a state of affairs should never have been allowed to prevail in our largest city. The undeniable reality, however, is that it was impossible to hold a transparent election in a city controlled by political mafias. And this is what happened on election day, with certain political forces using their influence in the city to literally hold polling hostage to their own whims. For the country’s political processes to function properly, some way has to be found to bring these elements under control. This will be no easy task for whoever decides – if at all – to take it on, given the power these mafias have acquired. The electoral chaos we saw in Karachi, wrecking the democratic process there, is the result of a long failure to impose law and order in the most troubled of our cities. It will be no easy task to salvage the situation. But the scenes we witnessed on Saturday are a reminder that this must be done. This sort of hooliganism and high-handedness should have no place in the political system – especially when it has such an adverse impact on the most basic rights of ordinary people. And what is more, this kind of mayhem in Karachi was hardly unexpected. There ought to have been preventive measures put in place to ensure polling in Karachi did not become hostage to a particular party or parties. Unfortunately this did not happen, leading to the ugliness we saw. All that can be attempted now is to patch over the damage the best we can in a city where people were denied their right to make a choice.

__________________
Janoon say or Ishq say milti hay AAZADI

14.05.2013

As the dust settles

The PML-N has won a resounding victory – at least in Punjab – and will form the next government. The tsunami expected by the supporters of the PTI never happened, but the PTI looks set to form a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as possibly be the official parliamentary opposition though this remains unclear. The PTI has to have more parliamentary seats than the PPP to be invited to be the opposition, and that is a tussle yet to be resolved. The PPP has suffered a stunning rout and cracks within its ranks are already becoming visible – the governor of Punjab has resigned and former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has quit the party post of senior vice chairman. The reasons for the rout are not difficult to see. Quite simply the party was very bad at governance, the country suffered as a result and the people – when offered a choice – booted it out. This is democracy at its best. Now the business of governance, relatively peacefully arrived at when viewed holistically, has to begin. For the PTI this can begin by first accepting – more or less – where it stands now. PTI supporters would do well to roll back some of the disappointment and understand that the party has performed rather well, given the overall picture. In this, Imran Khan can help the situation by explaining the party’s strengthened position to some of its emotional followers who should celebrate its success and move on.

The PTI now has a respectable presence in parliament. Let the parliamentary new boys and girls lead from the back in terms of transparency; with every PTI MNA declaring their assets at home and abroad immediately. Let all of them be registered taxpayers and let us all see what they earned and how much tax they paid. Let them eschew the florid and bloated protocol that seems to be the norm for politicians, and let us see a little more austerity – fewer new vehicles for instance – and a snipping off of the jugular of patronage and nepotism. Although the tsunami never happened in the way an overheated social media hoped for and wanted, there is nonetheless a revolution in progress. It is now for the PTI to set the example and recreate the political template from a zero base. It has no parliamentary political history to weigh it down (apart from a single seat long ago) and the party has been presented with a golden opportunity to show the rest of the political classes that the politics of the gutter need not permeate parliament after all. It is all to play for, and a straight bat in the coming weeks and months may translate into a wider victory next time the nation goes to the polls.

Unwise words

What we most need at this point is peace and calm within our nation. Yet it seems some of us are bent on making that impossible, unmindful of the damage unwise words can inflict or the chaos they can cause. Indeed, MQM chief Altaf Hussain’s words, used in his address over an audio system to supporters gathered at Nine-Zero, go way beyond the unwise – and may even be seen as treasonous by many. Certainly they add a distinctly ugly tone to the already troubled aftermath of the election in Karachi. This is the very last thing we needed at this juncture. Reacting to allegations of rigging in Karachi, on NA-250 and other seats, Altaf called on ‘the Establishment’ to ‘separate Karachi (from the rest of the country) if you dislike the mandate of its people’. His tirade did not end here. He warned the Establishment that ‘playing with fire’ could lead to the whole country burning down. As PTI supporters gathered at Teen Talwar to protest rigging, Altaf also warned they could be ‘cut to pieces’ as he could not control MQM workers forever. These statements, in a tone very clearly threatening, were misplaced. He also spoke of the MQM being repeatedly victimised and that, pushed against the wall, people were left with no option but to create their own countries. All through this extraordinary address, Altaf insisted he was not making threats. He appears not to realise just how dangerous his words are.

It is quite clear that the MQM chief’s speech was highly illogical, although the MQM has taken pains on Monday to explain and dilute the impact and meaning of Altaf Hussain’s words, blaming the media for taking his words out of context. This may be seen as damage control measures but such vague statements should not have been made in the first place. It is apparent to most that rigging did occur in Karachi; and the matter needs to be taken care of in a civilised manner. Threatening to cut people to pieces does not represent civilised behaviour. Nor is it within acceptable norms to suggest Karachi be turned into a separate state. He has managed to deliver similar speeches in the past. But stirring up trouble and creating even more hatred at this point is something that should simply not be encouraged at all. Our leaders should retain sanity so that we can avoid further chaos in our country. Altaf Hussain’s words threaten anarchy, despite the subsequent clarifications. We can only hope wiser voices from within his party will counsel him. The country cannot afford statements of this kind.

__________________
"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

15.05.2013

Ready, set, go!

With the election over, the PML-N is now on track to form the next government, and has taken the first few steps in that direction. Speaking to foreign correspondents invited to his Raiwind residence on Monday, Mian Nawaz Sharif has spelled out the priorities of his government, giving us a sense of his plans – and what the future might hold. The first signs are encouraging. Sharif has said that his party will work along with the army to tackle militancy, and dismissed his overthrow in 1999 as the act of an individual rather than an institution. He has also made it clear that he intends to keep the process of governance as inclusive as possible, pointing out that while his party was in a position to go solo in the centre, it would consider accommodating groups such as Baloch nationalist forces and the PML-F. This would also help the new government escape the label of being a primarily Punjabi force, and on Tuesday PML-N teams had indeed been dispatched to Sindh and Balochistan to initiate talks there.

Sharif has asked the PTI to form the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as the largest party in that assembly, and also asked it to respect the democratic mandate of political actors in other places as the PML-N was doing. This reference is undoubtedly to the ongoing protests by the PTI against rigging. Ishaq Dar, predictably enough, has been named finance minister and Sharif has stressed the economy will be a key priority. He has mentioned asking the provinces to collect agricultural tax – a move that could lead to friction within the party itself. Other names for key posts are also coming forward. Ahsan Iqbal is likely to be awarded a ministry, while PKMAP chief Mehmood Khan Achakzai is being tipped as a possible choice for speaker of the National Assembly. On the key issue of foreign policy, Sharif has said talks will be held with the US on the very sensitive issue of drone attacks. He also suggested that the Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh could be invited to his oath-taking ceremony, though Singh is reported to have since suggested that a later meeting would be more suitable. Nawaz Sharif’s election, however, appears to have been well received in key capitals, with Rahul Gandhi congratulating him over the telephone, President Barack Obama expressing willingness to work with him and Senator John Kerry indicating he may visit Pakistan quite soon. These are but early days indeed. The PML-N has made a racing start down the track. But given the state of the country, the run is going to be a long and arduous one, much like a fiercely-contested 800 meters race with much elbow-pushing and shoving for space. In this environment, we will need to see how the poll seats announced now hold out.

The women’s vote

As analysts begin to pick over the still-evolving results of the 2013 general elections, there is one aspect that already stands out and will bear very careful future attention – the women voters of the nation. And not just women voters, but women candidates as well. Two were of particular note, and neither had much by way of previous political experience. They were threatened and ridiculed and neither won their seat, but the point is that they participated and canvassed door-to-door – proving that their gender is not a barrier to an active political life. One candidate came from the tribal areas, the other was a widowed peasant mother of many from the rural hinterlands. Women make up about half the population of Pakistan but have been socially, politically and culturally marginalised for the entire life of the country.

These elections may be the point at which women have finally found electoral confidence and gone out to vote, many for the first time. They came out not just in Punjab where women’s right to vote is less of an issue, but in places like the Mohmand Agency where for the first time they were able – allowed – to vote. Women were not so lucky in other places where mainstream political parties worked together to ensure they were denied their rights; the women of Swat and North Waziristan remain disenfranchised. There are 60 out of 342 reserved seats for women in the National Assembly, and women have taken part in politics since Partition. There were 161 women candidates seeking election in 2013, a 129.8 percent increase since the last election in 2008. Many come from elite backgrounds, and are used to power and privilege, but increasingly the women who stand for election are not from feudal or wealthy families. They are standing sometimes against deeply conservative figures. Mussarat Shaheen went up against Maulana Fazlur Rehman and lost, but her stand was noticed by the media as were many of the women who contested elections in an effort to break the mould. There is still a long way to go, but if these elections are any indicator then the women of Pakistan have put down a marker unlike any before.

__________________
"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

(16th May 2013)

Rigging evidence

The debate shuttles back and forth about rigging of votes in the recent elections, much of it heated and ill-informed. There is now objective evidence of rigging based on data collected by the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) and it relates to the impossibly high turnouts recorded at some polling stations. At least 46 polling stations out of the 8,119 which Fafen monitored recorded a turnout in excess of 100 percent, an impossibility and the clearest possible evidence of tampering with the poll result. It must be noted that the report only refers to those polling stations monitored by Fafen observers, and is not intended to present a complete national picture of electoral rigging. Unfortunately Fafen has landed in trouble and a case has been registered against the organisation for misreporting facts. The organisation has also admitted misreporting in 3 constituencies and has apologised. Yet the bulk of its evidence still holds good. Of polling stations where fraud was committed 32 are in Punjab, 10 in Sindh, six in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and one in Balochistan. Fafen has conceded its facts about two KPK and one Rawalpindi seat were not accurate. In addition, Fafen has commented that the ECP should investigate all results from polling stations where the turnout was suspiciously high, with 80 percent the recommended benchmark and that the ECP should render the results null and void from any polling station with these irregularities. It is for the ECP to release all polling statements on its website, and failing to do will feed the suspicion that the ECP does not have an investment in transparency within the democratic process.

There is also ample evidence of voter intimidation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Fata, Karachi and Balochistan, besides isolated seats in Punjab. Electoral observers were prevented from doing their job by ‘political’ workers in Karachi. Targeted terrorism throughout the campaign limited canvassing but the Fafen preliminary report notes that in broad terms the population displayed a new interest in politics, and a willingness to participate by voting in the building of democracy. There are persistent problems with the electoral process – numerous irregularities from ghost and deceased voters and fraud to lax enforcement of electoral law. Pakistan has successfully made a peaceful transition of government but it still has a long way to go in terms of refining electoral practices and reducing the opportunity for vote-rigging and other types of criminality. A strong, non-political, neutral, efficient and assertive Election Commission has now become inevitable. Irregularities aside Fafen is of the opinion that the results of the election overall are a fair representation of the will of the people. It is less easy to say this in Karachi where the ECP itself acknowledged a failure to provide an environment in which free and fair elections may be held, and in large parts of Balochistan, KP and Fata. Over 400 people died and 1,000 were injured in the run-up to the polls, women were denied the vote in parts of KP and Fata. Democracy in Pakistan remains a work in progress rather than even a half-accomplished reality.

Friendly fixtures

As Mian Nawaz Sharif continues his conciliatory political approach, he has met with Imran Khan at the hospital where the PTI chief is recovering and suggested that the two parties put aside past differences and play a ‘friendly’ cricket match. The bedside meeting seems to have gone well, with Sharif also suggesting that the mandate of the people should now be accepted. For now the PTI continues to make allegations of rigging in Lahore as well as Karachi, while just days ago Imran had stated he would not enter into deals with either the PML-N or the PPP – both of whom he has dubbed ‘corrupt’. It would be interesting to see if Sharif could persuade Imran to change his mind. An indication came on Wednesday when Khan spoke through a video recorded message and urged everyone to ‘move on’ and also assured the PML-N that he would work with the government on issues of national importance such as the war on terror. These are signs that Imran Khan is now growing up to fill the big shoes of a national leader with major stakes in the system. Khan has entered the ‘big’ arena as far as politics goes. He will need to make adjustments and Sharif’s visit, beyond the matter of establishing goodwill, appears to have been intended to convince the PTI of this. Nawaz Sharif has already said the PTI should form the new government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khan has responded by saying he will make KPK a model province. It is also a fact that right now we need parties to work together and not against each other, given the multiple crises we face.

PTI spokesperson Shireen Mazari has said that Imran Khan reminded Nawaz Sharif of the need to tackle the Taliban issue. Sharif’s precise response is uncertain, but broadly speaking the two parties share a common stance on this, favouring negotiations. It is to be seen, then, how this pans out, with Sharif also consistently expressing his intentions of working with the US and maintaining good ties with it – a necessity of the times. While US and western diplomats have met Nawaz Sharif, they are yet to meet Khan and sound him out. Many things will have to be sorted out over the coming months and years. In this scenario, the question of how the various parties work together will become very significant. Cooperation, as Nawaz Sharif has suggested, is very important. And we certainly do not need the constant acrimony that marred politics in the 1990s. At the same time we also need a strong opposition, which is able to make its voice heard. This was the role the PTI had planned to fill. It must still do so, but in a manner in which opposition does not translate into enmity. Imran Khan on Wednesday promised exactly that, again a good sign of maturity. The future prime minister’s visit to the recovering Khan has been a good first step to begin the new phase of running the government and the country. The direction taken is right, which augurs well for all.

__________________
Yes We Can Do It!