The mood was reconciliatory at the luncheon reception hosted by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for outgoing President Asif Ali Zardari, whose five-year tenure comes to an end on the 8th of this month. Sharif showered Zardari with praise for his commitment to democracy and Zardari promised him support during his five years in office. There was more than a hint of irony in this exercise as it was Sharif who, once upon a time but not too long ago, had termed Zardari the ‘greatest threat to democracy’. He had consistently condemned Zardari’s inability to keep promises and his ‘let’s do business’ attitude and offers in matters of national importance which – as Sharif was wont to proudly point out – he had spurned. Some would argue that the change in him is testament to Zardari’s greatest quality: he understood the difference between an opponent and an enemy. They would like Zardari to be remembered as the president who voluntarily reduced his power. With the passage of the 18th Amendment, Zardari became a figurehead; the days of 58-2(b) are not too far in the past. Landmark legislations like the 18th Amendment became possible because the president and his party were willing to negotiate with the opposition and take it on board. This same democratic spirit led the PPP to accept its defeat in the elections and allow a smooth transition for the first time in our history.

To this others will retort that Zardari’s term in office will forever be associated with extremes of corruption and general decay in the country in both moral and political terms, that in matters of governance the PPP under Zardari was shockingly and wilfully inept, that Zardari as ever, was dogged by corruption allegations and cases which resulted in a prime minister being convicted out of power. Corrupt elements were unleashed on the country, which was constantly shocked and shaken by scandals too numerous to count when economic growth was anaemic and inflation rampant. This is why the PPP was rejected at the polls and why Zardari now has to vacate the President’s House. It was thus a shock for some when Nawaz Sharif asked the incoming president Mamnoon Hussain to follow in the footsteps of Zardari.

Be that as it may, behind the glittering displays of ceremony, many ugly questions lurk. The most central among them concern the immediate future of Zardari who faces a plethora of cases now that he is to lose his presidential immunity. Zardari has said that he will, as he has in the past, face the charges regarding his assets kept in Switzerland. His spokesman has insisted he will not leave Pakistan any time soon and will work to rebuild the PPP. Many wonder if this will be possible, if Zardari will make an attempt to leave for safer shores or if more dramatic events lie ahead. The fear of old cases being reopened or new ones instituted will surely haunt Zardari. While in office he was castigated for turning the presidency into a fortress against the approach of law and accountability. Will he now, for the sake of democracy, not fear accountability for his five years in power?



Faced with an intractable and seemingly unsolvable law-and-order situation in Karachi, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to double down on existing resources rather than come up with something new. On the second and last day of his visit to the city, on Wednesday Sharif held a cabinet meeting with the heads of the intelligence agencies, the Sindh chief minister and the governor present. Based on the advice given to him at the All-Parties Conference on Tuesday, the prime minister decided to order a Rangers-led operation in the city, while at the same time criticising the police for their inefficiency and political affiliations. It is now to be seen if there can be improvement in the effectiveness of the Rangers – a force that has not been above controversy either. However, relying on the Rangers while sidelining the police is also fraught with risk. The Rangers have the authority to carry out targeted operations against extortionists, killers, and kidnappers but in the end they will still have to deal with the police which essentially control the law-and-order infrastructure in the city including jails. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar has said that the Rangers would control the investigative process in at least one police station in every district. Still, should the police so desire, they could scuttle the Rangers’ plans. If that happens for any reason, it would be unfortunate and a guaranteed recipe for disaster.

Also, ultimately for Nawaz Sharif’s plan to work, he will need the full cooperation of the political parties in the city. As the DG ISI and DG Rangers pointed out at the cabinet meeting, there are criminal elements within the parties and the majority of extortion cases emanate from them. These parties must care enough about the city and less about their own power. Without their cooperation, all law-enforcement agencies, including the Rangers, will be hamstrung. Should they decide to go to war to protect their turf, the political parties can turn Karachi into a battlefield compared to which today’s violence may look like mere annoyance. The situation is only made worse by the fact that all provincial postings, including to the police, can be rejected by the PPP government in Sindh while the MQM controls much of Karachi and the PML-N at the centre has limited authority in provincial matters. The 18th Amendment can become a huge bottleneck for the centre to implement its plans and force its agenda. Thus, all Nawaz has to influence the situation in Karachi are his powers of persuasion.

What is encouraging to see, however, is the determination that seems to be going into his effort. Given the repeated failures of the past, the authorities must succeed this time round. The alternatives for Karachi are too horrible to contemplate. This is a city where 1,726 people have been killed in the first six months of 2013. It has also been uplifting to see both the central and provincial governments averring they will work together. This cooperation, if made practically possible, will be vital to the future of Karachi. The PM has done well to build it, while also emphasising that there is to be no federal takeover of Karachi. The plan for now has been pinned on the wall. The PM has put in place steps to tackle a critical situation but the ball has practically been left in the court of the Sindh government. We will now need to see if enough has been done to tackle the complex dynamics of violence in a city that has been badly crippled by it. The future is for now uncertain, but new hope of peace has been planted. We will wait to see how the process evolves.

The first meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA) with Nawaz Sharif at its helm focused, understandably, on the question of nuclear weapons. In recent days, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has come under renewed scrutiny after The Washington Post, using leaked documents provided by whistleblower Edward Snowden, revealed how the US had increased surveillance on Pakistan out of fear that our nuclear technology may not be safe and could end up in the hands of militants. Publicly at least, the US had to back away from that claim and say that Pakistan is capable of protecting its nuclear assets, but what it believes in private is another matter altogether. The US has long been concerned about the secrecy of where we keep our nuclear weapons and the command and control structure that ensures their safety. The NCA made it clear that our nuclear weapons are safe and said that the greatest threat comes from other countries which try to cast doubt on our ability to be a nuclear power. Understandably, our past proliferation of nuclear technology to North Korea will always make international powers apprehensive, but in the aftermath of that incident we have made a concerted effort to safeguard our nuclear weapons.

There are other national security threats we are currently facing which were not addressed by the NCA. Currently nothing is a bigger challenge than the problem of home-grown militancy which our political parties will finally address at a much-delayed All-Parties Conference (APC) on September 9. The government is hoping to use the APC to build a consensus around the vexing question of whether we should negotiate with the TTP, an approach which now seems to have broad support across the political spectrum but carries with it the risk of appeasement. The centrality of the Taliban threat is particularly sobering as these lines are written, since September 6 is Defence Day – a day on which we remember the sacrifices of our soldiers in protecting the homeland. The biggest threat we face today comes not from without but from within. Nearly as many of our soldiers have been martyred fighting the Taliban than in previous foreign engagements. This is what the political parties should realise as they meet at the APC. Terrorism is a problem too vital for our politicians to engage in their usual petty fights. Instead, they all need to agree on a strategy to neutralise the Taliban threat and then support the government as it implements this strategy. We need to be as united and resolute in confronting the enemy at home as we have been in thwarting those foreign powers that wish us ill.



News that the military has retaken the strategically-important Tirah Valley from the grasp of the TTP is very welcome, especially since it comes at a time when the government is seriously considering holding peace talks with the militants. Both the government and the TTP, though they have yet to initiate contact with each other, say that they are pondering the idea. If these talks do end up taking place they may very well lead to a ceasefire – although probably a temporary one – and so it would be advantageous for the government to take back as much territory as it can before this is done. Tirah Valley, in particular, is very important since it both borders Afghanistan and provides a route to Peshawar through Bara. By taking the area back we should be able to reduce cross-border militancy that originated from Tirah Valley and find it slightly easier to prevent militants from reaching Peshawar to carry out attacks. When the militants took over Tirah Valley last year, at least 150,000 people were forced out of the area with another 40,000 displaced by the military operation. The Lashkar-e-Islam, which was allied with the TTP, had distributed pamphlets in Bara warning residents against sheltering IDPs who belonged to the pro-government Ansar-e-Islam. Now that the valley has finally been freed from militant control, its beleaguered residents can be resettled in their homes.

The military operation is also a sign of how badly our war against the militants has been waged so far. Relying on the Ansar-e-Islam to fight the TTP and its allies was extremely ill-advised since the group itself is militant in nature and had been banned by the government in 2008. The only reason we supported it was because of its rivalry with the Lashkar-e-Islam, but surely we must have known that a group that essentially shared the same ideology as its opponents would eventually turn against the government. Before that, our equally unwise strategy of using lashkars contributed directly to the fall of Tirah Valley. The local lashkar just wasn’t well-equipped or well-trained enough to ward off the TTP. The military mostly left the lashkars to their own devices, which invariably resulted in defeat. One of the reasons the state is in a position weak enough that talks look like an attractive proposition is the flawed tactics that we have employed in the war against militancy. Had a hands-on role been assumed and full commitment shown to taking back and holding territory, the TTP would have been denied the strong position it holds today. Taking back Tirah Valley is a start but must be followed by further inroads into Taliban-controlled areas.

In accepting a $6.6 billion loan package from the IMF, Pakistan risks falling even further into a debt trap and inflicting the majority of the economic pain on its long-suffering citizens. As with all IMF loans, this one too will be accompanied by a lot of burdensome conditions. In fact, an IMF official will be visiting the country next week, after the release of the first instalment of $547 million, to explain just what it expects the government to do to keep the aid spigot flowing. There are some things the IMF always demands and we can expect to see them in the near future. Already, in anticipation of the loan, the government has been raising the price of petrol and other fuels but we can expect further increases soon since the IMF would like all subsidies on energy removed and for consumers to pay the market price. This may help the government build up its currency reserves and reduce the circular debt but the burden on citizens will be so onerous that fuel will become unaffordable for much of the country. On top of that, an increase in the price of fuel will lead to inflation throughout the economy. The price of food, for example, will rise since it will now become more expensive to transport it. Similarly, any goods or services that need fuel –whether for production or transport – will be more costly than before. Since the IMF also wants us to impose a gas levy, we will not even be able to rely on cheap gas as a substitute.

The IMF has a one-size-fits-all model that it imposes on all countries that seek its assistance, making very little adjustment for the unique needs and situation of the country. Thus we should brace ourselves for another round of privatisation. Just as was the case in the Musharraf era, national assets like the Pakistan Steel Mills may now be up for grabs. The biggest problem with privatisation is that the only state-owned enterprises the private sector is interested in purchasing are those which are already profitable, while white elephants like PIA and the Pakistan Railways find no willing buyers. Since the government is under pressure to raise capital by selling off its assets, you have a situation where there is an eager seller and cautious buyers. This invariably leads to the government selling state-owned enterprises at a lower price. Since the IMF is so wedded to its philosophy we will never be able to change their minds. What we should be doing is freeing ourselves of the burden of external debt rather than going even deeper in hock to the IMF.



When Major General Rizwan Akhtar, the director general of the Sindh Rangers, told the Supreme Court that 19,000 Isaf containers had gone missing from the Karachi port during the tenure of the last government he set off a firestorm. Akhtar’s testimony seemed to give proof of how criminal elements had so thoroughly infiltrated official circles in the city that they could seemingly raid the port at will. But soon the denials came pouring in. The MQM, whose member Babar Khan Ghauri was the federal ports and shipping minister at the time of the alleged theft, claimed that the accusations were baseless and part of a conspiracy against the party. Given that an interior ministry intelligence report which was submitted to the Supreme Court made mention of a previously unknown group known as the Muhajir Republican Army for culpability in Karachi’s violence, it is understandable why the MQM may feel aggrieved. The US followed with its own denial, claiming that none of its shipments arriving in Karachi have ever been stolen. Of course, both the MQM and the US would want to rubbish any claims that these containers were stolen on their watch but the Rangers too have a vested interest in absolving themselves of responsibility for the spread of illegal weapons in the city.

Instead of statements being taken at face value, what is needed is a thorough investigation into the incident – let that be the final word on the matter.We must also keep in mind that the FBR had conducted its own investigation into the missing containers case in recent months and had found several thousand missing while in transit to Kabul. With the federal government having approved a Rangers-led operation in Karachi, the last thing we need is for the MQM and the paramilitary organisation to be on the outs. Any operation worth its name will have to target criminals who are associated with political parties and the Rangers need to ensure that they are not accused of favouring one party over the other. The city is bracing itself for a tough period ahead and such sniping will only make things worse. The Rangers should also not use the alleged theft of the containers as an excuse for its failure to curb the spread of weapons in the city. Illegal weaponry was a problem in Karachi long before the US began receiving military shipments at the Karachi port and there has never been any political will to launch a deweaponisation campaign. The fact is that all political parties, with armed gangs at their disposal, benefit from these weapons and do not have the incentive to check their use. The Rangers should target these illegal weapons in their operation, regardless of the political patronage received by those who posses them.



To say that the state of sports in Pakistan is in decline would be an understatement. Just take a look at recent happenings: the country, which has won four world hockey titles, even failed to qualify for World Cup 2014. Pakistan’s cricketers lost to Zimbabwe – easily the weakest among all Test-playing teams – in a One-day International. In squash, Pakistan used to have five to six of its players in the top-10 world rankings but today it doesn’t have a single one in the top-40. The sad story spreads to other sports as well for a country that is proud of its past track record in the field of sports. In times like these, there is a clear need for a concrete and unified campaign to put things back on track. But instead, the country’s sports chiefs are embroiled in a power struggle that is threatening to push Pakistan sports towards further disaster.

The prize they are fighting for is the control of the Pakistan Olympic Association (POA), a body that reports to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) – the supreme organisation in the world of sports. For that purpose a parallel POA was formed with government support earlier this year. It was immediately rejected by the IOC but the government continues to back it. Earlier this week, this body occupied the Olympic House – POA’s headquarters in Lahore – with the help of government machinery. This controversial move, which elected officials of the IOC-recognised POA believe is illegal, has pushed Pakistan to the brink of an international ban. The IOC is expected to respond sternly which means that Pakistan’s suspension is imminent. This shouldn’t be allowed to happen. The government functionaries will have to stop taking sides in this power tussle and instead play a role in resolving this crisis. The POA is and will remain answerable to the IOC which means that it will only be allowed to function if it follows the Olympic charter. The government cannot take over the POA simply because the Olympic charter frowns upon any direct government interference in Olympic matters. It is time for those who instigated this crisis to back off. Otherwise things will only get worse for Pakistan’s sports.

Pakistan’s release of seven Afghan Taliban members, on the request of Afghanistan to kick-start peace talks, is a move that is fraught with risk. The seven members, all of whom were mid-to high-level commanders, are not being tracked and there is absolutely no guarantee that they will choose the negotiating table over the battlefield. Still, this is what Afghan President Hamid Karzai requested during his visit to Islamabad last month and we have seen fit to comply. Afghanistan is still not entirely happy with the release since they wanted one of the freed prisoners to be Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who was the top commander of the Taliban insurgents and was captured in Karachi in what was believed to be a joint Pakistan-US operation. Pakistan finds itself in a somewhat delicate position since Afghanistan is pressurising it to release Taliban prisoners – this being the second set of militants we have released at their request – while the US is worried that they will take up arms again. On top of that, we have to contend with the possibility that we will end up being blamed by Afghanistan of supporting the Afghan Taliban if they end up returning to the insurgency.

Despite this gesture, the prospect of peace negotiations is still distant. Karzai has been very erratic in his dealings with the Taliban, suddenly switching from support for the idea of talks to displaying inordinate offence when the Taliban office in Qatar displayed the Afghan flag dating to the period of their rule. Karzai’s greatest worry is that the Taliban will be in a position to overthrow his government once the US begins withdrawing its forces next year. There are no good outcomes here but Karzai still has been convincing enough in explaining why talks with the Taliban are necessary. To this day, the Taliban have shown little interest in a negotiated settlement. They sense that they have the upper hand and just have to wait out the US. This is why there may be problems with their commanders being released without assurances from the Taliban that these men would not return to the battlefield and that they would be prepared to begin negotiations. This may also be seen as an indication of how weak Karzai has become. So only time can tell the wisdom or otherwise of the latest move in this complex and dangerous game of war and power.



In a speech given at the Sui Military College, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani sought to downplay the ever-present friction between the military and the people of Balochistan. He claimed, somewhat disingenuously, that not a single soldier was involved in operations in the province. This conveniently ignores the fact that the Frontier Corps, while nominally under the control of the interior ministry, is headed by Pakistan Army officers. On top of that, the XII Corps was moved to Quetta before the rebellion in 2004 and is now stationed there. Even if soldiers are not currently involved in operations, Quetta is a heavily-militarised city and, when needed, those soldiers could be called into action any moment. Kayani also overlooked the fact that the military, more than any other institution in the country, has earned the mistrust of the Baloch. Units of the military and the Frontier Corps tend to be almost exclusively headed by Pakhtuns and never by the Baloch, further exacerbating tensions in the province. On top of that, the military has never expressed any regret for previous operations in the province, including the one launched by Pervez Musharraf which led to the killing of Akbar Bugti. Talk of reconciliation will be impossible until past sins are confessed and accounted for.

Kayani also seemed to blame most of the province’s woes on tribal leaders, claiming that if there was peace among the tribes the resources of Balochistan could be used for the common good. For all their faults, tribal chiefs have often been scapegoated by the military and the centre to whitewash their own sins. The fact is that Balochistan has never had control of its resources, with the centre putting back very little into developing the province. Mere words will no longer be enough to pacify nationalist sentiment and defang the separatist movement. The indifference to Balochistan’s other problems too is also reflected in the fact that the entire political class is fretting about the law-and-order situation in Karachi and has agreed on a Rangers-led operation to try and improve the situation. But no one, civilian or military, has taken any note of the targeted killing of Shia Hazaras in Balochistan. Terrorists attack and kill at will and neither the military nor the civilian leadership calls for a crackdown. As long as these double standards exist, all expressions of goodwill will be dismissed as verbosity.



During a high-level meeting on law and order on Saturday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif noted that Karachi faces an extraordinary situation, and to tackle it special efforts are required. There certainly can be no doubt that the city by the sea faces very difficult times indeed. At the meeting, Nawaz Sharif followed up on the recent APC held in Karachi was and ordered authorities to finalise a strategy to block illegal or unregistered SIM cards; all mobile service operators are being contacted and consulted with to go about this task as swiftly as possible. Nawaz said the measure was essential to prevent the use of such cards by criminal elements. It may be noted that in the past some 4.5 million cards had been blocked as part of an effort to prevent them from being misused. This time, it is estimated that the number of illegal SIMs stands at around 4.7 million. Numerous warnings have been issued, but clearly this has not been followed in a very large number of cases.

It is not completely clear how far blocking SIMs will affect crime-fighting in Karachi. Given the magnitude of the problem, it is clear, though, that drastic steps are needed and the PM appears to be willing to take them. We hope the agencies and companies concerned will cooperate as well. However, steps like disabling unregistered SIMs or cracking down on non-IMEI cell phones can only form one part of the battle. The task of returning peace to the metropolis is a mammoth one and each issue will have to be dealt with separately. What has become obvious is that the PM is aware that Karachi cannot wait any longer. The impact of these actions will not become apparent quickly. It will take a little time to gauge them but we must hope some success can be obtained by adding all the measures together to form a holistic strategy.

The much-delayed All-Parties Conference on national security, finally held on Monday, seemed to confirm that we have run out of ideas on how to deal with the Taliban. The joint declaration issued after the APC was merely a reiteration of talking points that our politicians have been reciting for years. Drone attacks were condemned as illegal, terrorism was blamed on blowback from the Afghan war and, in the only major policy announcement, all the major political parties endorsed holding talks with the Taliban. The idea of negotiating with the Taliban is neither original nor one that is certain to work; it is simply the last option left for a state that is weary of a war it hasn’t been able to win. The idea of talks, though approved at the APC, still has a long way to go before it becomes reality. So far the TTP has shown no inclination to negotiate with the government or agree to cease attacks if and when talks are held. The government has also not told us what conditions it will agree to and whether they will include completely unacceptable points like completely withdrawing the military from the tribal areas rather than agreeing to a temporary ceasefire. The devil, as always, is in the details but as yet we have only been given a vague outline. Only once we know what the government is willing to give up can we decide if talks are a good idea.

On the matter of drones, the APC was correct in pointing out their illegality and saying that the matter will be taken to the UN. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that will amount to any more than a PR exercise. The UN has been powerless as the US readies itself to go to war in Syria; it certainly won’t be able to stop drone attacks. The APC also devoted some time to the law-and-order problems in Karachi and Balochistan but had little to say beyond recommending that the provincial governments use their authority to tackle those situations. We do not as yet know what the intelligence chiefs told the political parties at the APC since those sessions were conducted in-camera. As news trickles out it will be interesting to know if the military is also keen on negotiations. Past experience shows that talks with the Taliban are at best a short-term, stopgap measure. Neither the government nor the military has been able to explain why this time things will be different.



Things have happened as they should. As one president bowed out of office, his successor, Mamnoon Hussain, elected to power on July 30, took oath to take over the highest office in the land. The oath, at a ceremony marked by expected tradition and dignity, was administered by the chief justice of Pakistan. Alongside the prime minister, the army chief and other dignitaries, the outgoing president, Asif Ali Zardari, also attended the ceremony. This is a truly unusual sight in a country with as unsteady a relationship with democracy as ours.

For now, though, all attention remains fixed on Mamnoon Hussain, the 73-year-old businessman from Karachi who, it is widely believed, has been rewarded for his consistent loyalty to the PML-N. Mamnoon’s entry to the presidency will also give some representation in power to Sindh, helping maintain federal equilibrium. Mamnoon himself has emphasised that he intends to act as a symbol of the federation and to strictly adhere to the constitution in all matters. These are welcome words. A role such as the one the new president has defined is just what our state needs. Right now, democracy needs to establish a still firmer footing so it cannot be dislodged as easily as has happened time after time in the past. The spirit that Mamnoon Hussain brings to the presidency, the tone that he sets, and the way in which he acts will be closely watched over the coming five years. It is true that following the passage of the 18th Amendment, the president now has few real powers. But he still determines to a very large extent the kind of face the country puts out before the world and how it is seen by it. The new president will also need to wipe away old blemishes left on the presidential office. Asif Ali Zardari’s tenure was a controversial one. A fresh start needs to be made, the slate wiped clean and a new era allowed to begin.



In approving a further bailout package of Rs2.9 billion for Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM), the Economic Coordination Committee took the total amount of money pumped into the enterprise over the last year to more than Rs50 billion. The PSM is clearly floundering and becoming increasingly poor at serving its main function – to reduce our need for imported steel. It is currently functioning at only 15-20 percent capacity and as a result our steel imports have been steadily increasing. The PML-N government, if it had its way, would ideally like to privatise the PSM but it is facing many hurdles in doing so. First, for now the PSM is so unprofitable that it would barely fetch the federal government any money in a sale, although the thousands of acres of real estate attached to the mills is worth billions. In order to receive a decent price, the government would first have to throw a lot of money at the PSM and hope for better efficiency. Then, there is major opposition in the form of the PPP, which is opposed to the sale of such large-scale state assets. The PML-N would also have to contend with the Supreme Court, which blocked the sale of the PSM during the Musharraf era. For now, privatisation seems to be off the table.

The problems with the PSM, which was designed to use imported raw materials like coal and iron ore rather than local ones, are quite a few. The federal cabinet, with the prime minister’s approval, appoints the head of state-owned enterprises. This has led to nepotism, with people patently unqualified for the job and having no relevant experience in the field being tapped to head the PSM. As with all other government industries, jobs at the PSM are seen as rewards for the party in power, leading to a situation where it employs 20,000 people but needs only half of that. This latest bailout is mainly going to be used to pay the salaries of these workers. The situation, should it continue to be so dire, may conceivably lead a future government to consider shutting down the PSM, selling its machinery for scrap and actually making money off the valuable land on which its situated. That, or finally making the steel industry efficient, are the only two options we have left. The irony is that given a corruption free, efficient management, the PSM can stand on its own feet.

It has been 12 years since the 9/11 attacks in the US which killed over 2,900 people. The war on terror, announced by Washington immediately after the strikes, with the stated objective of eliminating international terrorism, has since dominated global events and redefined US foreign policy. As a nation that has stood squarely at the centre of the swirl of events, Pakistan has experienced precisely what this has meant. We can also say with surety, as we determine how to take on terrorists within our own country, that US actions have not succeeded in ending terror. Indeed they may instead have fanned the flames. Ironically enough, the 9/11 anniversary comes as the US prepares for the possible invasion of another country. Once more we see weapons and rights abuses being used as a means to justify a war (which the UN has refused to sanction). It is clear that the 2009 assertion from the Obama administration that the US was not involved in any global war but only one against Al-Qaeda meant little. The US it seems has learnt little from the past, including the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq on the pretext that the country had Weapons of Mass Destruction. Today, more than ten years after the invasion, and nearly two years after the US troops’ withdrawal, Iraq remains in turmoil with Sunni and Shia groups killing each other and families mourning at the graves of loved ones. Afghanistan too, invaded in October 2001, remains caught up in strife with the militant threat as real as ever ahead of a planned US troop withdrawal next year. It is instructive how the US has often worked against its own stated intention to root out extremism and terrorism. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the US inadvertently ended up strengthening the very forces it was claiming to fight. Now in Syria, as was the case in Libya, the US is going to war on the same side as its supposed foe. Al-Qaeda and allied groups have been at the forefront of the wars against Bashar al-Assad and Muammar Gaddafi and intervention in Syria will aid them – and could of course boil over into a wider conflict.

There is also the issue of human rights violations and abuses by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan – allegations of torture in custody, rape of local women by soldiers and other violations have been common, albeit downplayed. US actions have expanded hatred and mistrust against it across the Muslim world. At home we see this in the continuing hostility to drone strikes that began in 2004. This is why there is now so much scepticism about the very idea of a war on terror in the first place. For many, it is simply a way for the US to maintain hegemony. This is why many governments are opposed to the idea of a war on terror, even though their fear of US might makes them go along with what the Americans want. Scared of being ‘bombed back into the Stone Age’, they are complicit in a war that they in fact disapprove of. We see this in Pakistan where every government from Musharraf onwards has condemned drone strikes even as WikiLeaks documents showed that they secretly went along with them. The war on terror, if one were to include all military actions undertaken by the US in the Muslim world under this rubric, has now taken hundreds of thousands of lives – a magnitude more than the losses the US suffered on 9/11. But amid all this the basic reality is that the US, for all its jet-fighters, tanks, specialised troops and unmanned aircraft is not even close to eradicating terror. It may be time for the US to rethink the very premise of a war it has been unable to prosecute successfully. Sadly, there is no indication it is ready to do so even now.



The saga of the Shahzeb Khan murder case has come to a sadly predictable end with the victim’s family deciding to pardon the wealthy and influential people convicted for his murder. On December 24, 2012, Shahzeb Khan, the son of a police officer, had an argument with Shahrukh Jatoi and Siraj Talpur after Talpur had been misbehaving with Shahzeb’s sister. The argument escalated and eventually led Jatoi and Talpur, along with accomplices Sajjad Talpur and Ghulam Murtaza Lashari, to hunt down and kill Shahzeb. The path to justice was not an easy one as even Shahzeb’s cop father found it difficult to file an FIR against the accused. Public outcry eventually led to a trial, with Shahrukh Jatoi being arrested in Dubai, where he had absconded. After the trial in an anti-terrorism court, Shahrukh Jatoi and Sajjad Talpur were handed down death sentences while the other two accused were given life sentences. Even then, there were many who were cynical about the prospect of the wealthy and powerful being forced to accept their fate. Their cynicism has now proven correct and requires us to seriously rethink the concept of justice in this country. We have unwittingly created a system where there is one set of rules for the rich and connected and another for the helpless.

Shahzeb Khan’s killers will likely go free thanks to the Qisas and Diyat laws, which allow the families of victims to strike out-of-court deals with the murderers and then forgive them their crimes. In practice, these laws are used most often by the rich to buy their way out of murder convictions. When you add to that the impunity with which the rich and powerful can threaten those less fortunate than them, it becomes understandable why fearful families would rather forgive the killers, take the money and run rather than fight an unequal battle. This is why we need to seriously reconsider these laws. Not only do they create a parallel justice system based on wealth, they also end up treating murder as a crime only against the individual and his family and not a crime against society. Those who can murder and get away with it will be even less inhibited in the future when they know that their wealth acts like a shield. The payment of blood money will only lead to more bloodshed. We do not know the motivations of those who choose to pardon murderers under the Qisas and Diyat laws but we should know that murder is too serious a crime for the state to turn it into a transaction between families.

A long day of violence and political intrigue in Karachi underscored just how difficult it will be – possibly even futile – to try to bring peace to the city. The troubles began when the planned Rangers operation in the city commenced. A former MQM MPA Nadeem Hashmi was arrested for the murder of a policeman, in Lyari the house of People’s Amn Committee leader Uzair Baloch was raided and the son of an ANP leader was also detained. The Rangers may have hoped that by trying to be scrupulously fair and targeting all the political parties involved in violence they may avoid causing too much trouble. That turned out to be a mistaken assumption. The MQM, as is its wont, immediately shut the city down, although denying any responsibility publicly, and claimed persecution. And what many of us had feared could happen in Karachi started happening. The city was held up by violence through most of Wednesday, with markets shut and people staying off the streets. There were violent protests in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Mirpurkhas and other cities; all of them of course strongholds of the MQM. This, in a nutshell, is why any attempts to enforce law and order in the city are doomed to failure. At a national level the leaders of the political parties may agree on the need for an operation but their promises are entirely disingenuous. Ultimately they will only look out for their self-interest, which means denouncing any action taken against them and resorting to violence to ensure their political influence isn’t reduced.

All parties are quick to cry ‘martyr’ but the MQM, by virtue of being the largest party in the city, is always the main focus of criticism. In this case, the criticism is entirely justified. In a city awash in guns and where all the political parties use violence to enforce their writ, being the most important party carries with it extra responsibility to maintain peace. The MQM has deliberately and conspicuously failed to do that. It is no coincidence that MQM chief Altaf Hussain asked for the creation of new provinces – widely interpreted to mean the establishment of a Muhajir province – just one day before the operation began. Knowing that the MQM would come under fire, Hussain tried to divert attention away from his party’s culpability in violence and towards their grievances, also harkening back to the 1992 operation against the party when police ‘encounters’ became the norm. He spoke of ‘ethnic cleansing’ and stated that the MQM was the main target of the operation ordered now in the city by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after a recent meeting of the federal cabinet in the Sindh capital. The words used by the MQM leader were provocative – ushering up images of violence and bloodshed, with the horrors of 1992 undoubtedly ignited in the minds of many living in Karachi. The next few days will be the greatest test of the governments’ resolve. What happens next is far from certain. The overall political situation is already looking more volatile than it did just a few days ago and there is every risk of more and greater violence in the days ahead. To buckle under political pressure would be tantamount to admitting that nothing can be done about Karachi during the next five years. While that should be avoided – with extreme care of course taken to ensure no one is dealt an unjust hand – we have to be wary of the fact that the political parties here, almost all of them, command so much firepower that they can turn Karachi into a war zone. We are in for some difficult days but they may well end up defining the direction the city takes.



US President Barack Obama, in a major televised address on Syria, ended up making the case for a military intervention that may now be unlikely to take place. This is not because Obama is any less convinced of the righteousness of his path but because he has been overtaken by events. Syria has agreed to sign a treaty banning the use of chemical weapons and Russia is showing a commitment, in words at least, to rein in Assad. In the US, public opinion is sharply opposed to yet another adventure in the Middle East and Obama does not have the votes in Congress to get approval for launching attacks on Syria. The next few weeks will be crucial in dousing the flames of war but for now there is reason to hope. We should not make the mistake, however, of crediting Obama for this turnabout. His speech showed that he is still in favour of military strikes but is willing to wait a while longer before going through with them. And while he may be seeking Congressional approval, he does not necessarily feel bound to follow its dictates. As for the United Nations, Obama has decided to be as unilateral in his approach as George W Bush was when declaring war on Iraq.

This pause has given everyone a chance to assess the situation in Syria on its merits rather than make hasty decisions. The UN is supposed to deliver a report on the use of chemical weapons by the end of the month. Since significant doubts still remain over whether it was Assad or the rebels who used the weapons, this report should prove a clarifying moment. In its recent statements the UN has said that there is yet no proof of the Assad regime having used chemical weapons against those fighting it. It has also accused the rebels in Syria of being involved in war crimes. The US also needs to better understand the nature of the opposition to Assad. There are credible reports that Al-Qaeda and groups affiliated with it make up a significant portion of the insurgency. Empowering them would not be in anyone’s interests. The focus now also needs to be taken away from the US and back on to Assad. There is no doubting the brutality of the war he is fighting and the rest of the world needs to convince him that a ceasefire is the only way to hang on to what’s remaining of his rule. Syria is embroiled in a ferocious civil war that has destroyed whatever legitimacy Assad may have had. A halt to the fighting and the promise of free elections would be the ideal outcome. US air strikes will only make that possibility more remote so for now we have to place our trust in diplomacy.

The alleged release of six TTP prisoners in exchange for two Frontier Corps men being held by militants will be sure to cause controversy in the days ahead. The military has already denied the prisoner exchange but, while there is no independent confirmation of the swap, we have examples of such deals being cut with the TTP in the past. In 2008, just as the military was getting ready to pull out of South Waziristan and hold talks with the then TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud, 37 of his militants were released in return for 12 soldiers. At the time, that swap and the others which followed seemed necessary since the TTP was holding more than 200 Pakistani soldiers and officials, including our ambassador to Afghanistan. This time round, if indeed a prisoner exchange has taken place, the rationale for it is far less clear. Perhaps it was meant as a gesture to the TTP in advance of the peace talks agreed upon at the All-Parties Conference. If that is indeed the case, we should look back to the 2008 negotiations with Baitullah Mehsud, which produced a short-lasting agreement, the terms of which the TTP flouted at will and used only as an opportunity to regroup. There is a danger that the TTP will again see the prisoner exchange, lopsided as it is in their favour, as a sign of weakness ahead of the talks.

As a general rule, governments avoid prisoner exchanges with those holding hostages because it only encourages them to kidnap more people. The last thing the state should want is to start giving in to every TTP demand since that bodes ill for the upcoming peace talks. Everyone knows that the side which is likely to emerge victorious in negotiations is the one that comes to the bargaining table in a position of strength. The military successes in the tribal areas should have made the state the stronger party. Unilateral concessions such as this prisoner swap may end up undermining its position and convincing the TTP that it can be pushed around. If an exchange had to have taken place, the authorities should have demanded either an equal swap or that their men should be released first. Guarantees should also have been received that the released militants do not pick up weapons again. Without such steps, the state may end up shooting itself in the foot once talks begin with the TTP. One should not end up being a victim of one’s own fear.



The national carrier, which once proudly soared to the skies, is now struggling and is barely able to keep afloat. Like other giant national entities, it is acting as a drain on the exchequer instead of bringing in much-needed profits. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told a federal cabinet meeting that PIA was incurring colossal losses per month. The situation PIA finds itself in means billions need to be poured into it each year. As the PM pointed out, these should be going into the energy projects we so urgently need. He is also correct in stating that what has happened to PIA is a result of inefficiency and poor management. With a vast service network and a continued monopoly over most routes in the country, PIA should certainly be able to hold its own.

There can be no excuse for the dishonourable table of figures in red put before the cabinet but the state of affairs within PIA – nepotism, mismanagement and corruption – have been known to us for long. The rot has destroyed layer after layer and will now be all the harder to eradicate. But the mammoth task has to start before the possibility of saving a service which was once the source of so much national pride slips away entirely from our hands. The political factors involved in the whole mess add to the complexities. Many fear a deliberate attempt to bring PIA stock so low that it may then be handed over cheaply to a political crony. This is, to one degree or the other, true of other national organisations as well. The Pakistan Railways is one such example. These giant bodies have turned into white elephants, forcing the state to bend under their weight. Just as we need to bring in investment, we need to prevent the resources we already have from being eaten away. This can only happen if we begin the task of urgent resuscitation, with professional, apolitical managements selected purely on merit, before these bodies fall into a state of total collapse, making rescue impossible.



We are living through an era where technological change has come in more quickly than at any other time. The internet, mobile phones and the new innovations associated with them have changed lives forever. We rarely think of these additions as anything more than a convenience and a means of instant communication. The points raised by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry about the impact of these developments on other aspects of life should, therefore, make us think. Addressing a meeting of the Law and Justice Commission in Islamabad, the CJ said that the laws of the country had lagged behind, given the technological changes that had become a part of daily activities, and the altered social behaviours these brought. What we do revolves to a growing extent around mobile phones, the internet, social networking sites and various technologies. Laws have been introduced to tackle cyber crime in the wake of these changes but the call for wider legal reform in response to the realities of the age we live in is certainly relevant. Indeed, a significant number of our laws date back decades, even to colonial times, and we need to move beyond these.

In view of the points raised at the meeting of the commission, which is also tasked with the responsibility of suggesting reforms in law, we need to consider more deeply quite what is needed. Much business takes place using new technologies, and so does crime, as was noted just recently by the prime minister in his call to block illegal or unregistered SIMs, while YouTube has become a source of intense debate in our country due to factors we are familiar with. Given the deep inroads technology has made into life, laws need to be updated, keeping this in consideration. Quite how this is to happen is something a consensus needs to be built around so that we can ensure we are not left behind by time and the new devices, tools and gadgets it has brought. What other countries have done for these reforms can be a starting point.

The national carrier, PIA, will be privatised – reflecting the fact that, over the years, governments failed to control its decline. It has been losing Rs3.3 billion a month and the government’s hope is that the losses will be stemmed by handing over 26 percent of the shares and management control to a private entity. To make this a viable option, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has directed the PIA management to undertake a cleanup task so that buyers would step forward. It must be noted that airlines around the world are losing money right now because of the high international price of oil. On top of that PIA has additional issues like maintaining the highest ratio of employees to aircraft of any airline in the world. In this climate there may not be many buyers forthcoming unless they are provided all kinds of benefits and assurances. Previous administrations, like that of Pervez Musharraf, tried to sell off PIA and found there were no takers. Given the scandals that stemmed from past privatisation exercises, it is a good sign that the PM has stressed transparency and openness in the conduct of the process. This should be a priority and we hope the mechanism that is worked out will ensure this. The last thing we need is any allegations of wrongdoing or favouritism. Indeed from this point on the affairs of PIA need to be closely watched so that the path leading up to the selling of shares is not riddled with controversy or doubt. If the most likely purchasers emerge from the ruling party or their tycoon friends a disaster could be in the making. If somehow a monopoly occurs over air travel in the country, it would reek of political favouritism and patronage rather than doing what is in the best interests of consumers. The higher courts may eventually again be dragged in.

Beyond these issues is the broader question of what impact privatisation has on the economy and resources. There have been accusations in the past that by privatising giant national entities, such as PTCL, the national cupboard is being stripped of its silver, leaving nothing behind for a rainy day. These accusations flew most memorably during the term of Shaukat Aziz. They may come up again, even though many had become increasingly convinced that there was little real option left other than to sell off PIA and allow it to enter the private sector where management might be more efficient and geared towards ensuring profits instead of endless losses. Yet, it can be argued that privatisation has often been an abdication of duty by a government that wants to save money in the short term and that, instead of trying to privatise PIA – which would likely lead to costly routes to remote parts of the country being shut down – it would be in the national interest to reform the way the airline is run. At the end of the day it is good and professional management that matters, not who owns the company. Now that a decision has been taken, there will be problems along the road. The question of layoffs will inevitably arise. The matter of subsidies still given by the state on certain routes will also come up. All this lies ahead and only after it is over will we be able to tell what benefits privatisation brings and what impact it has on us.



The challenges facing the federal government in bringing peace to Karachi were underlined yet again when the PPP-led provincial government made a rash of transfers in the Sindh police. It may appear that these transfers have one aim: to ensure that the uppermost positions in the police are held by men who have a history of taking on the MQM. By far the most significant – and possibly controversial – of the transfers is that of Shahid Hayat Khan, who has been made the chief of Karachi police. Hayat was involved in operations against the MQM in the 1990s. Praised on many counts by his admirers, his career has not exactly been above controversy. He was among those arrested and tried for the murder of Murtaza Bhutto and was believed to be one of the cops present when he was killed. Hayat was acquitted in 2009 and then made a reputation for himself by tackling the high-profile white Corolla case and the Shahzeb Khan murder. His appointment, apart from possibly triggering the MQM, will likely spur challenges from within the police as well. Before his promotion, Hayat was serving as DIG Special Branch and so has superseded AIGs and DIGs who were senior to him. This will lead to court challenges since the Supreme Court has taken a dim view of government appointments that seem political and contain a change in pay and scale.

The other changes in the police – the replacement of four AIGs and 14 DIGs – may also be challenged by the MQM since none of the officers are considered favourable to the party. There are two possible routes the PPP could be exploring with these transfers. The more frightening – and less likely – option is that the provincial government is gearing up for a major police operation that could chiefly target the MQM. The more realistic scenario is that the PPP simply wants to scare the MQM into thinking that action against the party may be imminent. Although it is the Rangers that are currently carrying out operations in the city, the police still have power over investigations since legislation to give the Rangers all the same powers as the police haven’t been introduced yet. With the MQM reacting so badly to the Rangers’ arrest of one of its leaders, there is no telling how the party will protest the police transfers. If the new police setup cannot give results – and quickly – charges of playing politics with Karachi will stick.The PPP has needlessly struck another blow for the forces of division in Karachi. What comes next may well be very ugly.

As expected, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) rubber-stamped the government’s October 1 electricity power hike after being ordered to take over pricing decisions by the Supreme Court. Consumers of power across the country – and this means a majority of its 185 million people given that power transmission lines reach out into most parts of the country – can now only contemplate the future with a growing sense of despair. They are now faced with power bills going up by between around 40 to 170 percent from October 1 this year, with the last ray of hope – or should we say the last ray of light – taken away as Nepra sent up the new rates to the government for implementation. While those who use less than 200 units of power in a month will be relatively unaffected, every other category of consumer will face price increases ranging from around Rs10 per unit to over Rs12 per unit. The effects will be catastrophic for many. Such a massive hike in the price of power has not been seen in the country and will naturally affect the budget of virtually every household ranging from very low-income groups to those in the middle and higher middle brackets.

Although the price increase may now fulfil the legal criterion laid down by the Supreme Court that does not make it any wiser. The decision will also have a general inflationary trend with the prices of other goods going up as a direct result of the rise in power tariffs as production costs rise and shops need to pay higher bills. Once again it is the law-abiding public that will have to bear the burden since the government does not seem to have the ability or willingness to go after electricity theft and bill dodging by the powerful and the wealthy. It also seems to have settled on a policy of increasing prices as a way to worm its way out of a financial hole rather than seeking to expand our supply of electricity. This was seen recently when the government banned the use of CNG for three months in Punjab in the winters so that it could continue providing gas to domestic and industrial users. In the mid-2000s, it was official state policy to try and convince people to switch their vehicles over to gas; now that our gas supply is running short it has to resort to rationing even though it could simply fund our portion of the Iranian gas pipeline and get a steady supply for the long-term.

The government-IMF combine seems determined to squeeze every last penny out of those who pay their bills. This is the same tack it has taken with regard to tax collection – by raising the general sales tax (GST) but not going after the wealthy defaulters. The government has all but conceded defeat and it is us who will pay the cost. Nepra added insult to injury by saying that it would seek to manage the power crisis by forcing shops to close after 7 pm, a mere cosmetic measure that has been tried before and has always failed. Next thing you know, we’ll return to farcical policies like reintroducing daylight saving hours in the pretence that the government is trying to do something other than just make electricity more expensive for us. At a time when a bold vision is needed, the government unfortunately is showing only timidity. The gas pipeline has been all but shelved for the time being because of fear of the US and we so badly want IMF loans that we are simply succumbing to their every dictate. This is not a recipe for success down the line. The way to raise more revenue is by improving transmission lines, collecting bills and investing in infrastructure. The extra money raised now is only a band-aid measure that provides limited help to the government and hurts everyone else.



General Kayani, while addressing graduates at the Kakul Military Academy, has said in the plainest possible words that the military fully supports civilian efforts to make peace with India. This is something the COAS, who will end his term in office at the end of this month, has said before as well. But for peace to be made a reality, the regular skirmishes across the Line of Control in Kashmir need to end. For the first time in months since the latest round of firing over this temporary border broke out, General Kayani has chosen to make his feelings known and not mince words while attacking the comments made by his Indian counterpart. He has rejected allegations that Pakistan was planning to send militants into Kashmir or had already done so and also that firing by its troops across the line had killed people on the Indian side.

The remarks by the COAS are welcome. They indicate that while he has so far shown admirable restraint, he is not willing to allow false allegations of all kinds to be hurled about. Indeed, it is hard to understand why these were made in the first place by General Bikram Singh. There can be little gain for either country by doing anything that creates greater tension between them. Indeed, General Kayani’s complete refusal to talk on the issue so far is by far the preferable option. But at the same time, it would be unwise to stay quiet too long. The point has to be made, also to avoid the Indians making use of a lack of response to drive on with more provocative statements. Indeed, the Indian government, which under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has repeatedly spoken of its desire for peace should question why these accusations have been hurled about and what the truth is regarding incidents of firing over the LoC that we hear of from time to time. The fact cannot be ignored that they come at very significant moments, most recently ahead of the planned meetings between the prime ministers of both nations in New York. It is obvious then that Kashmir has become a dispute that hawks can use repeatedly to push forward with their own agendas. This is a not welcome state of affairs. Something needs to be done to prevent such situations arising again and again and find a way to achieve this if there can ever be hope of a sustainable peace between the two South Asian neighbours who have fought three wars in the past.


On paper it sounds like a classic mismatch. In one corner are South Africa – currently the world’s top Test team. The Proteas have not lost an away series in seven years. They have come to the UAE – venue of Pakistan’s ‘home’ series – with some of the world’s top players. In the other corner are Pakistan – arguably the most unpredictable of all Test-playing nations. The Pakistanis are still smarting from an embarrassing Test defeat against minnows Zimbabwe last month. They are in the UAE with a brittle batting line-up which was finalised almost at the eleventh hour and that too in a chaotic manner. Their captain is in the twilight of his international career while their coach is unlikely to be retained once his stint is over.

But like life, sports can be a great leveller. One of South Africa’s most lethal weapons is their pace attack. But that edge might get blunted in sweltering UAE heat. Their batting line, too, is a formidable one but there is likelihood that on the low, slow and turning tracks in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, Pakistan’s potent spin attack spearheaded by Saeed Ajmal will counter it. Taking these two factors into account, it can be said that the two-match series which begins in Abu Dhabi from Monday (tomorrow) might not be a mismatch after all. That Pakistan are facing a very uphill task is undeniable. The question is whether they can rise to the occasion and conquer the mighty South Africans.