Is Islamabad safe?

November 12, 2012

The suicide attack on the Rangers building in Karachi on Thursday has raised new fears about the security of sensitive locations across the country. In such a scenario, Islamabad, with its government buildings and foreign missions, becomes a key security concern. According to a report in this newspaper, there is a threat to the ‘Red Zone’ in the federal capital. Reports from intelligence agencies indicate that militant groups may indeed be planning an attack – capitalising on some of the loopholes in the security measures taken by the authorities. While police maintained security is in place, the laxity of the situation is obvious even to an amateur. It is unclear why security issues have not been taken up more seriously, with even the interior minister apparently pointing out the need for this. It is curious his words seem to have had no impact on the security apparatus. A strike on a key building in the capital would count as a huge bonus for the militants and an equally massive blow to any counter-terrorism efforts by the government.

There have been concerns about the security and safety of our cities for a very long time now. We have also been unable to hold back militants, as is evident from the spate of attacks we have seen recently. Given how crucial security has become in our present context, we simply cannot afford the general level of incompetence we have come to expect. Something needs to be done urgently, and the question of motivation and training for the police force needs to be considered. The battle they are now engaged in, against well equipped zealots, goes beyond ordinary law-enforcement. Perhaps we need to form a special law-enforcement unit to tackle militancy. But certainly we need to do much more to protect Islamabad and other key targets. The situation that exists at present must not be allowed to continue even a day longer. Doing so would be courting disaster.

For cricket

November 12, 2012

Just weeks before Pakistan cricket team’s first tour of India in five years – for a bilateral series, reports have again emerged alleging that the 2011 World Cup semi-final between the two traditional rivals was fixed. That high-profile game which took place in Mohali on March 30 last year provided plenty of ammunition to conspiracy theorists because of the way Pakistan players played and lost the game. And now new allegations, understood to be part of a book written by a British journalist, add more fuel to a fire that still burns for many Pakistani fans, who suspect that their team under-performed in that big match. As expected, the international cricket authorities have once again rejected these allegations after having shrugged off similar suspicions surrounding the Indo-Pak semi-final in the past. International cricket chiefs have made it clear, time and again, that they need some kind of proof to launch any investigations into suspect matches. But it is quite evident that even this firm attitude of the International Cricket Council (ICC) hasn’t stopped allegations of corruption in international cricket that creep up every now and then. Whether it’s the tournaments run by the ICC or the cash-rich Twenty20 leagues owned by India’s cricket board, no major cricketing event is spared. The alarming part is that a growing number of cricket fans around the globe are becoming suspicious. This doesn’t augur well for the reputation of cricket or the future of this great game. It is the responsibility of the ICC, as the game’s governing body, to take care of this sensitive matter by giving it the sort of importance that it demands. It’s clear that whatever the ICC is doing to keep cricket’s image clean is not working. The ICC needs to do more because this is about the credibility of a sport that is loved and followed by millions of fans all over the world.

From the grave

November 12, 2012

Almost precisely eight years after he died, the investigation into the undetermined reasons for the death of Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat has resumed. In 2004, French doctors had been unable to identify the cause of death after Arafat died in a Paris hospital. His family had not permitted an autopsy, but now, after high levels of radioactive material was found from Arafat’s personal belongings by Swiss experts, an exhumation may well take place to try and discover more. In 2004, a vast majority of Palestinians – over 80 percent – had expressed belief that Israel was behind Arafat’s death and that he had not died of natural causes. Ninety-three percent wanted medical records made public, and his widow, Suha, too had remained unconvinced that he died a natural death.

Israel has consistently denied any role in the murder and, while it can hardly be expected that Tel Aviv would openly admit this, there are indications the truth may be darker. There were hints in 2004, from quarters close to Arafat, of the possible involvement of the PLO’s acting chief at the time, Mahmoud Abbas, and other leaders in the sordid affair. Eight years have passed since then. But even now the findings stemming from an exhumation could alter things in Palestine, and perhaps affect the already stormy politics of that region. Arafat remains a hero for Palestinians, and many would still like very much to know what happened, even if the truth leads to even more complications politically. With the kind of repercussions involved, the results of the murder inquiry, re-opened in August this year, will be eagerly awaited by many around the world.

Celebrating a full term

November 13, 2012

In the usual course of events, it is hardly ever considered necessary to compliment a parliament on completing its set term in office. But in Pakistan this is not a normal event. From 1988, when democracy made a stuttering re-start, through to 1999, when the Nawaz Sharif government fell, no setup has lasted the constitutionally mandated five years in office. This was the point made by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in a speech in Abbottabad this weekend, where he warmly greeted parliament on successfully finishing its term, and strengthening democracy. But the CJ’s message went a little beyond mere words of praise. He stressed that a parliamentary democracy was the only workable system for Pakistan, and that this could function smoothly only if all institutions worked together. Not surprisingly, the CJ also spoke specifically of the judiciary’s role in this, as well as of the efforts by lawyers to restore it after Pervez Musharraf’s illegal action in 2007. As Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry stressed, plenty of lessons had been learnt since the restoration of the judiciary in 2009, with the various institutions working out how best to function alongside each other.

This is not to say democracy has had smooth-sailing since 2008. It is important we smooth out the discord between the courts and the executive. But as the CJ said the key thing is that, in the end – indeed at every stage – the constitution was adhered to. It was not, as has often happened over the past decades, treated as a mere piece of paper that can be tossed aside or scribbled on at a whim. It is important for us to recognise, and respect, our constitution as a document crucial to the success of our democracy. To a considerable extent, this has been achieved this time around. There is, however, still room for improvement and we hope this will come as we gain more experience with democracy, so that the completion of a parliamentary term becomes the norm, rather than an unexpected event. This is vital to alter the political culture of our country and create within it the kind of maturity that is required to take the system forward and give it the lasting strength it requires to succeed.

Chinese transition

November 13, 2012

Once every ten years, China has a change of management. The most populous country in the world and with the second-largest economy, it is ethnically diverse but politically monochrome – the Communist Party of China has ruled unchallenged on mainland China since 1949. Changes in leadership in China have never been transparent, and the process by which leaders are selected remains unclear. The Congress now in progress is the point at which the Old Guard of the last decade hands power to the new generation of men – and a few women – and it is of as much importance, maybe even more so, as the American election of last week. The last ten years have seen unprecedented advances in China. However, while the economy continues to do well, even if at a slower rate in the last year, development has not been equitable. The China of today still has vast pools of rural poor who have none of the benefits and opportunities of the relatively rich urban population.

With inequality comes unrest, and there are growing protest movements within the country against the top-down management style that characterises the government. Alongside the protests about new industrial developments that may pollute the lands that farmers rely on for their meagre living, there are also protests against corruption. It is of considerable significance that the outgoing leadership has ‘gone public’ about its concerns regarding corruption, going so far as to say that it threatens the ruling Communist Party and the state itself – an assertion of considerable gravitas. There is to be a long-term commitment to countering corruption because it is fuelling widening social unrest, something the Chinese government is not known to tolerate. That corruption exists at every level of Chinese society has long been known, but to have it exposed as an existential threat to the system, party and the state is an acknowledgement of the scale of the problem. Given the all-pervading presence of corruption in our own society, it would be encouraging to think that our government had the courage to be as honest as that of the Chinese.

Violent upsurge

November 13, 2012

Karachi has followed a distinct pattern through the year: steady rounds of death, followed by periods during which the daily toll suddenly soars, marking a peak on the graph. We have seen many such peaks, with nearly 2,000 people killed so far in our largest city during 2012. Who knows what the number will be by the time we reach the new year. The situation certainly doesn’t seem to be heading in a better direction any time soon. In the latest spate of apparently targeted killings of mostly sectarian nature, scores of people have been killed within three days Who knows how long this senseless violence will continue, or what more we will have to bear in the coming days.

These murders, eerily following a similar pattern, have gone on for too long. We know they are linked to the sectarian strains, together with ethnic and criminal tensions, that run through the city. The political nature of this violence only serves to further complicate matters. This is also one reason why law-enforcement agencies have remained so utterly unable to tackle the situation. Worse still, as has happened repeatedly in the past, there is every danger the situation could worsen. Karachi just needs a single tossed match to ignite a huge blaze of violence. The question is if there is still time to prevent this from happening. Somehow this violence has to be stopped before more lives are lost and more destruction wreaked on a city that today struggles to survive.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Dealing with drugs

November 14, 2012

A new Drug Regulation Authority has been set up, with the president signing the relevant law on Monday. The legislation aims to control the sale of spurious and poor quality drugs, while also ensuring they are available to people at affordable prices. This law had been sought by all the provincial assemblies, given the scale of the problem in Pakistan, with parliament passing it after some debate on its provisions. The real test though comes now – as we see what measures are taken to enforce the new law. These drugs, produced in backstreet units, too often harm rather than heal. In some cases dangerous substances, including lead, have also been found in these medicines. The new regulatory authority faces an uphill task – shutting down these units will not be an easy task, as the present and previous governments have discovered.

The new DRAP law, as it has been dubbed, however gives the authority created under it new powers, emulating those that exist in the developed world. While bodies such as the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA) play an important regulatory role, we should not forget they are prone to pressures from giant drug manufacturing corporations, leading to frequent errors in judgement. We must ensure then that the powerful pharmaceutical companies at home are also tamed by the law. During the signing ceremony, the president called for more efforts by Pakistan’s own companies to engage in research and development to improve standards. While this could help exports, it could also help control the price of medicine. The entire healthcare mechanism will need to be examined in detail; even at government-run hospitals patients are frequently forced to purchase their own medicines – at prices they can barely afford. While healthcare is a basic right of all citizens, the government must also make sure people are spared the menace of spurious drugs. We must hope the new law, which has much potential to alter things, can achieve all that it sets out to do, leading to better health service in the country. This has become a pressing need in our country, with unregulated drug sale over the past so many years firmly entrenched in the system.

Civil service

November 14, 2012

An essential underpinning of any civil service anywhere in the world is that it is free of political interference and pressure, and exists as a completely separate entity to the political life of the state. A breach in the firewall between politics and the civil service is to the detriment of both – but in Pakistan, the mirror state, things are a little different. The Supreme Court has ruled, entirely correctly, that civil servants are not the paid help of ‘transient governments’ and that they should adhere to the state and the constitution rather than the whims of politicians. They are not bound to obey political orders that are illegal or unconstitutional, and must not be penalised for refusing to do so.

The ruling arose from a petition brought by a civil servant after the incident involving MPA Syeda Wahida Shah slapping a member of the polling staff in the course of a by-election. The petition asked that ‘the standing of the civil service be restored’ along with a revival of the independent, impartial and professional status of the civil service. The petitioner had said that the legal and constitutional safeguards that were there to protect civil servants needed to be reaffirmed. The issue is that those in the civil service are caught between a rock and a hard place. Civil servants wanting to do their job without fear or favour live in the knowledge that if they do not bow to the will of powerful politicians they can find their careers quickly blighted – posted far from their homes and families, or placed ‘On Special Duty’ for unspecified reasons and for indeterminate periods of time. Such is the curse that hangs over all civil servants, a Damoclean sword that politicians have no compunction about swinging. The net result is that we have a civil service that has institutionalised mediocrity through political appointments that circumvent custom and best practice. This is not to say that all civil servants are corrupt; there are, and have been, some fine upstanding members of the civil service. But it is a measure of how far the service has been dragged down by political interference that the Supreme Court has to restate underlying principles. The law has prevailed, but it remains to be seen whether it can be made to parallel unhappy realities.

A faint hope

November 14, 2012

A significant impediment to peace in Syria has been the fragmentary opposition and its inability to come together under a single flag. The Assad regime has benefited from this disunity, and proven to be remarkably durable. Those external players who might have been supportive have stayed their hands for the most part, or worked through proxies to arm several of the groups fighting the Assad government. There was also legitimate concern that the opposition groups that were demanding support were not representative of the Syrian people in the broadest sense. All this may change if a deal brokered in Doha on Sunday holds together until this coming Friday when there is to be a donors’ conference in London. Deals of any sort in the current febrile environment are notoriously short-lived. Now, a new body called the ‘National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’ is being promoted as the single entity that will manage the political and military affairs of the many opposition groups as well as being a focal point for humanitarian and military assistance.

If there is one thing the Assad regime fears it is a united opposition and political recognition for an entity that could lead to the formation of a credible government in the event of Assad falling – which is as yet far from certain since he still enjoys considerable support in some parts of the country and in the military despite defections. A very large fly in the ointment could be the Syrian National Council that was formed in August 2011 with much the same purpose as the new body – to represent the Syrian people internationally. The SNC, on its part, was concerned that the new body could lead to its eventual dissolution but, having been given 60 seats in the new body, is willing to go along with the Doha deal. It is envisaged that Alawite, Kurdish, Christian and other minorities will have places in this parliament-in-waiting, which nobody is yet referring to as a government. The supporters of the new body are hoping for swift international recognition, and the Friday moot in London could be a step along the way to that.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

American nights

November 15, 2012

It seems the US does not get as outraged by war as it does by marital infidelity, and the omnishambles that is the Petraeus affair continues to dominate the headlines. It has now rolled over the US commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen, who is under investigation by the defence department because of his allegedly voluminous communications with Jill Kelly, the woman who sparked the entire affair into life. She was the one who called in the FBI after receiving anonymous threatening emails that were then traced back to Paula Broadwell, in turn revealing that Petraeus and Broadwell were engaged in an extramarital relationship – and the rest, goes the saying, is history. Thus far General Allen – who was nominated by President Obama to take over as head of US forces in Europe – is not being accused of an extra-marital relationship. One does have to wonder, though, how much time he was giving to his day-job if he was able to generate 20-30,000 documents, including emails between himself and Ms Kelly, beginning in 2010 and only ending with the current investigation.

There may or may not be security implications in the Petraeus-Broadwell affair, and there is no clarity around the Allen-Kelly documents beyond a vague reference to some of them being ‘flirtatious’. General Allen is said to enjoy the continued support of President Obama but his post as commander in Europe has been put on ice pending the outcome of the investigation. Why all this matters is that it is getting in the way of the Obama administration coming up to speed in the hiatus between winning and being sworn in next year. Obama was, quite literally, blindsided by the allegations relating to both men, despite the investigation into Petraeus going back many months. Nobody had thought to tell the president that the director of the CIA, one of his most trusted team-members, had broken military law by having an adulterous affair. Who knew what, when and who they did or did not tell is going to be the subject of conjecture far into the future, but in the here and now the ‘scandals’ are complicating the reshuffle of the cabinet. This has particular relevance for us as Hillary Clinton is to be replaced as secretary of state. John Kerry was being touted as her successor, but he may now get the defence post and Susan Rice, currently US ambassador to the UN, seems more likely to fill the post. If there is any moral to be derived from any of this it is this: – woe betide all those who fail to delete embarrassing or sensitive emails, because they will come back to bite you where it hurts most.

Unending crisis

November 15, 2012

Already mired in a crisis that involves nationalist insurgency, crime and violence, Balochistan has found itself embroiled in a new one – which is purely political in nature. Just hours after the Pakistan People’s Party leadership in the province declared the coalition government in the province unconstitutional, following a Supreme Court ruling that it had lost the writ required to keep order in Balochistan, 46 members of the 65-member Balochistan Assembly expressed confidence in the leadership of Chief Minister Nawab Aslam Raisani.

The prevalent confusion is fast becoming harder to sort out. The assembly session during which the vote was held was conducted by Deputy Speaker Matiullah Agha, in his capacity as the acting speaker. The session had earlier been called off by Speaker Muhammad Aslam Bhootani – as acting governor. Bhootani said he needed an SC clarification on the status of the assembly before he could call a session. All 46 members of the Raisani-led coalition government voted in favour of the resolution seeking an expression of confidence in Chief Minister Raisani. No other provincial assembly member was present. The PPP’s Balochistan chief, Mir Sadiq Umerani, who had participated in the party council meeting suspending Raisani, also voted in his favour. But he later said that Raisani could be toppled if the central leadership gave the go ahead. So, what happens now? Sundry legal issues have to be unraveled and solved. As things stand, it is hard to say what Raisani’s legal situation is. The SC has asked why the government is doing so little for Balochistan. This is certainly a valid point. But under the prevailing situation, with the government itself embroiled in the crisis, it will be able to do even less. There is a real possibility now that attention will shift to politicians and their doings in Balochistan, rather than remain focused on the violence in the province and the crisis of legitimacy there facing the system as a whole. This cannot be good for the people who, beyond all else, need peace so they can live their lives without constant fear of death and disappearance.

Education bill

November 15, 2012

In welcome news, the National Assembly adopted the ‘Right to Free and Compulsory Education Bill, 2012’ on Tuesday; The bill has already been passed by the Senate and stipulates fines, and even sentencing, for fathers who do not send their children to school, as well as those employers in whose homes children work as labour, instead of going to school. While this bill is meant for schools under the federal government and local government in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), the NA called upon all provincial governments to adopt similar bills. After the passage of the 18th Amendment, education became a provincial subject but the same amendment inserted Article 25-A to the constitution, which states that the state should provide free and compulsory education to all children from the age of five to sixteen years. As education is a fundamental right, the federal government must help the provincial governments in facilitating this requirement. Without legislation by the provincial governments, it would be difficult to ensure free and compulsory education for all children. However, legislation is not enough to ensure education in a country where poverty and social insecurity remain a glaring reality.

Pakistan’s literacy rate is quite low compared to other countries in the region. Apart from factors related to the state’s flawed policies over the decades, rising extremism is also correlated with poverty and lack of education. The attack on Malala Yousafzai showed us that terrorists are afraid of educated children, especially girls. There is no doubt that uneducated and illiterate youth are much more easily lured by jihadist propaganda. Given the large number of young people in Pakistan today, it is of immense importance that our children be educated so as to counter extremist narrative. The state also needs to initiate teacher training programmes and a change in the curricula. Instead of spending most of our budget on defence, we need to ensure the education budget is increased significantly. Guns and bombs cannot buy peace but educated and free minds can certainly lead to a flourishing, democratic and peaceful Pakistan.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Being neighbours

November 16, 2012

The long shared border and ethnic and cultural overlaps between Pakistan and Afghanistan translate into an indissoluble relationship, with both states taking a close interest in each other’s affairs. The war in Afghanistan is now winding down, and the bulk of American troops will have left by 2014. There is an accelerated process of handover to Afghan forces and agencies, with considerable concerns about their capacity to cope post the American withdrawal. The Obama administration has a renewed mandate and the mood music in Washington suggests that America wants ‘out’ of Afghanistan as fast as may be honourably achieved, leaving Pakistan and Afghanistan to find safe paths through the minefield of their relationship.

There exists a significant trust deficit, in large part fuelled by attacks emanating from Afghanistan into Pakistan. There is a perception on this side of the border that Afghanistan is not trying as hard as it can to stop these attacks. Be that as it may, dialogue has to continue and the visit by the Afghan High Peace Council led by Salahuddin Rabbani is a rare positive indicator suggesting an uptick in the quality of the relationship. In a move likely to be well received on all sides, Pakistan has agreed to release a number of Taliban leaders, possibly as many as seven or eight but not including Mullah Baradar who is the Taliban second-in-command and a captive too risky to give up. The group is, however, thought to include Mullah Nooruddin Trabi, ex-finance minister for the Taliban. This set of releases will satisfy a long-standing Afghan demand; having these men back in play at a time when talks with the Afghan Taliban and possibly the Haqqani group as well are going on in the background, is likely to help rather than hinder the peace process. As events pick up speed there is going to have to be more clarity in terms of ‘final positions’. Pakistan has long complained that American policy has been vague, even contradictory, in respect of Afghanistan. There can be little doubt that the American withdrawal is not going to bring about peace in Afghanistan, and a failure to achieve a modicum of political equilibrium via negotiation could have negative consequences for Pakistan. Like it or not, we are neighbours into perpetuity. How we both manage neighbourly relations is going to determine the future of peace not just in Afghanistan but the whole region.

Bright lights?

November 16, 2012

Things seem a little brighter than before for the government. After looking at evidence that the letter seeking the re-opening of graft cases against the president had indeed been received in Geneva, a five-member bench of the Supreme Court has withdrawn the contempt of court notice against the prime minister in the NRO case, putting him in the clear. This seems to bring that matter to an end – at least for now. Meanwhile, the president, whose immunity has been mentioned in the letter, also seems to be in an upbeat mood. Speaking at a function arranged in the district of Mandi Bahauddin in Punjab, he said parliament was now stronger than any other institution in the country and that he had himself delegated his own powers to it. While this may, to some degree, be technically correct, the fact is that the president still plays a huge role in decision-making in the country. The real issue we face is that of having all our key institutions work in balance according to their constitutional roles, rather than vying for supremacy over each other.

But now that the government apparently ‘feels’ stronger, the real challenge before it is whether it can tidy up things in the country. The reality is that, even in the presence of a now un-burdened prime minister and an empowered parliament, Karachi remains in chaos and Balochistan burns. The challenge for the president, the prime minister and their teams is to find solutions to these issues. At the moment, because of the existing state of affairs, there is still far too much instability in the country. The president also made a reference to conspiracies being hatched, with reference to Karachi. This will not do. The prime minister and the president must devote their full attention to these issues, going beyond the realm of statements blaming invisible conspirators. They must put in place some real work on the ground so that a change for the better can be achieved without any more delay. Unless this happens, life for the people will continue to be miserable – regardless of court clearances or presidential promises.

China chooses

November 16, 2012

The climax of the Communist Party Congress in Beijing was as low-key and understated as have been the rest of the proceedings, but no less momentous for all that. Vice President Xi Jinping led six other men on to the stage, acknowledged the polite applause and became China’s new leader for the next ten years. The ruling group faces a very considerable set of tasks if they are to steer China through what they themselves acknowledge to be difficult times. That China has changed dramatically in the last two decades is undeniable. It is now the world’s second-largest economy but economic growth has faltered in the last year; the economic model that produced such phenomenal growth and prosperity (not for all) is in need of refurbishing.

If change is what is needed to keep China on an even keel then it may be that these seven men are not going to be the ones to deliver it. None of those who were considered as ‘reformers’ made it into the ruling group, which is seen to be conservative and committed to the status quo. Despite this, during his speech, Xi Jinping referred to ‘pressing problems within the party’, including corruption and ‘being divorced from the people’ as well as the ‘bureaucratism’ that was caused by some party officials. He might also have mentioned the widening wealth gap and the gender disparity in the population. Millions of Chinese men face a future without a wife or children – hardly a recipe for social equanimity. Environmental degradation linked to heavy reliance on fossil fuels has already produced protests and social unrest. The list of challenges is endless: territorial disputes over tiny islets that guard the gates of sub-sea riches, ethnic tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang, an education system that is increasingly seen to be outdated, a pool of unemployed students and, above all, the difficulty in meeting the rising expectations of an expanding middle class. However, there is no indication that China is going to experience the legitimacy crisis the countries of the Maghrib did in the last two years. But the road ahead will not be easy, and we wish the Chinese people and their new leaders well as they move on to a new future.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Death of justice

November 17, 2012

Nearly two years after Geo reporter Wali Khan Babar was shot dead in Karachi, it seems that Babar, a dedicated and respected young professional, is to be denied the justice that he deserves even after death. While the conviction of those who killed him will not bring Babar back to life, it may have offered some solace to his family and deterred similar targeted killings. Hopes that this would happen died on the night of November 11, as assassins shot and killed the last eye-witness to Wali’s murder, Haider aka Saleem, after barging into his house and pumping two bullets into his head. The Sindh High Court had given clear-cut instructions to the provincial government to give Haider ‘foolproof’ security. This obviously did not happen. Senior police officials say that, with Haider’s death, it will be extremely hard for the trial court to reach a conclusion. Haider, who had identified five suspects in a police line-up, was due to appear before the ATC on November 13 – two days after he was murdered. The case has since been adjourned.

While 23 witnesses were listed in the murder case of Wali Babar, only six had agreed to testify – there is no doubt that fear of being killed was a key factor in this. Between January 2011 and now, all six have been killed, Haider the last to be brutally murdered. The victims included two policemen, a police officer’s brother, an informer linked to the investigation and two civilians. The killers are obviously ruthless men but as we have seen in other cases before this, their actions, backed by the larger gang they belong to, mean they have almost certainly been able to evade justice again. It is an unfortunate reality that the rule of law has collapsed and justice is now but a distant dream. Wali Babar’s killers may very well escape scot-free, illustrating the plight of a country where order has completely broken down, with cities run by gangs. While the courts may be ready to dispense justice, work on the other side by the prosecution – investigators and the evidence collectors – has simply been dismal, non-existent. The decay that was allowed to take over has now completely set in and authorities seem helpless against these criminals. The question now is if we can get things back to some kind of order. The tragic deaths of Wali Khan Babar, Haider and numerous others, suggest that this may not be the case, leaving us as mere witnesses to the violence and mayhem that now rules this land.

Security blues

November 17, 2012

The interior ministry and its mercurial leader Rehman Malik might as well have banned the citizens from walking faster than was good for them, or not wearing anything brown on alternate Thursdays. The ban on motorcycle riding in Karachi and Quetta was fortunately overturned in the case of Karachi. The ban touched new heights of nonsense as was swiftly realised by the Sindh High Court, which suspended the directive from the ministry before it could be implemented. The interior ministry had also banned the use of vehicles without proper documents, though how the ban was supposed to be implemented remains something of a mystery – there being about 1.5 million registered motorcycle users in Karachi alone, not to mention the unknown numbers of unregistered users. The minister then directed that shops and businesses should close down by 5pm closely followed by howls of protest from the commercial sector.

Friday morning saw the closure of cellular services in Karachi from ten in the morning through the evening, once again on the grounds that this would thwart the conspiracies of those bent on destabilising the country – presumably terrorists now keep office hours. Of slightly more use – only slightly – Rehman Malik announced a ban on the display of weapons during Muharram. The sale of SIM cards is also to be banned from December 1 and it can only be a matter of time before fortune-telling parrots are banned on the grounds that they sometimes get it wrong. We do not wish to belittle the seriousness of the security problems faced not just by Karachi but the entire country – they are many and they are complex. For this very reason we need a closely-reasoned and practical anti-terrorist strategy that is agreed on nationally and provincially, and operates to a set of universal protocols. Such a strategy could be activated at times of tension such as during Muharram, be founded in practical realities and agreed across a range of stakeholders. Instead, we have an interior minister given to inflicting strange and unnecessary bans on the general population to the security of none and the frustration and inconvenience of millions.

The Gaza cauldron

November 17, 2012

The body count is rising almost by the hour. On Thursday 31 Palestinians died as a result of Israeli actions and three Israelis were killed by rocket-fire emanating from Gaza. Israel has activated 30,000 reservists as a possible precursor to ground action in Gaza. In a move heavy with political symbolism, the Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil visited the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza. During the course of the visit he carried the body of a child who had died of wounds, blood staining his clothing, an image that is going to resonate across the Middle East and the Muslim world more generally. Qandil called Palestine ‘the heartbeat of the Islamic nation’ and in doing so opened a new chapter of Egypt’s relations with Gaza, Hamas and the Israeli state. As if to emphasise that post-revolutionary Egypt was not playing with the same deck as under the Mubarak regime, he said that there would be a visit, facilitated by Egypt, of the Tunisian prime minister on Saturday. Both visits will go some way to reducing the sense of isolation felt by Gazans and give a signal to Israel that Egyptian compliance in the face of disproportionate responses to Hamas actions was no longer a given.

The latest upsurge was caused by the Israeli killing of a Hamas military commander last Wednesday, with matters quickly escalating. Militants say they have fired more than 350 rockets from Gaza and Israel said it had intercepted 130 of them using its ‘Iron Dome’ anti-missile system. In Tel Aviv on Thursday air-raid sirens sounded for the first time since the first Gulf War in 1991, warning against incoming Fajr-5 rockets. The cauldron that is Gaza never ever goes off the boil, it just boils at differing levels of intensity and occasionally boils over – usually to the detriment of the 1.1 million refugees in Gaza that are under the wing of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). There has been no substantive move for the resolution of the Palestinian conflict in decades. Talks aplenty, solutions nil. Until Israel understands that it cannot have its cake and eat it too, there never will be.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The province that never was

November 18, 2012

The province that was not is now the province that will not be. The proposal that a Seraiki province be created in southern Punjab came, in large part, from ex-prime minister Gilani, but there did not seem to be a groundswell of popular support for it at the grassroots. Not in the present times. The idea remains on the political agenda as evidenced by the words of President Zardari on his visit to Multan on Friday. He gave with one hand saying that the government would continue to ‘plead the case for the creation of a separate province’; and took away with the other by saying that the Pakistan People’s Party did not have the required parliamentary majority to allow the creation of a new province. The president was in Multan on a fence-mending expedition necessitated by the bruising departure of Gilani from the PM role and his subsequent period floundering in limbo. Gilani continued to beat the drum for his pet project and claimed he had been punished for supporting it. But the writing on the wall was clear enough – no new province.

As if to draw a conclusive line under this protracted, but eventually futile, struggle it appears that the Seraiki Commission – formed with much fanfare and led by Senator Farhatullah Babar – has quietly been allowed to wither on the vine. Senator Babar was unavailable for comment on the matter, but sources within the PPP indicate that the party now has other priorities. Gambling on the fact that it would get a two-thirds majority on a free vote on the formation of the new province in parliament was a gamble too far for them. Originally the commission had been given a month to finalise its recommendations, but that deadline expired seven weeks ago and there is no proposal to extend it. There has never been any shortage of reservations about whether Pakistan really needs more provinces. There have also been concerns about the legality of the commission itself as there is no such constitutional requirement mentioned in Clause 4 Article 239 of the constitution, which details the process associated with the creation of a new province. A considerable amount of time, political energy and an unknown sum of money has been spent on attempting to satisfy what was little more than a piece of political aggrandisement.

Bans won’t do it

November 18, 2012

Unsurprisingly, the ban on bike riding in Karachi proposed by Interior Minister Rehman Malik came under fierce attack in parliament on Friday. While the Sindh High Court had already stayed the order, Malik’s suggestion was attacked by senior members of his own party, led by senators Raza Rabbani and Babar Awan. During a debate in the Upper House they suggested that a ban on bike riding would be illegal and unconstitutional. What followed was a heated argument, with Malik pointing out that he had received intelligence reports that motor bikes would be used to carry out terrorist attacks. He also accused the government and parliament of failing to do enough to amend laws on terrorism along the lines he had suggested.

So far, despite his many claims, Rehman Malik’s ministry – and the government as a whole – have not been able to impose even a limited check on the violence in Karachi, which has already claimed over 1800 lives in the city this year. The groups behind these attacks have to be stopped rather than taking cosmetic measures that will only cause more inconvenience to the already suffering citizens of the metropolis. The interior minister’s assertion that he can easily stop Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, the Lashkhar-e-Jhangvi or the Taliban is backed by no evidence, a fact pointed out in the Senate. The debate on the matter has been deferred, given the low turnout in the House at the time. It is quite obvious to most that even if bike riding were banned, terrorists would simply use other means to carry out their activities. In the past trucks, cars, bicycles, remote-controlled devices and suicide bombers have been used to inflict immense damage. There is no reason why these methods cannot be used again. As other senators from the PPP have suggested, more sensible steps are required to ensure security. These should include measures to break up extremist outfits, improved intelligence as to what they plan and, perhaps most crucial of all, snapping the links between politics and crime. This has yet to happen. The result is the continuing, and accelerating, mayhem. Quite clearly a bike ban will not stop it, and infighting within the ruling party will only make matters worse. Solid, well thought out steps are needed and now is the time to put them in place.

Judiciary and polls

November 18, 2012

Following an extensive meeting of the National Judicial Policy-Making Committee at the Supreme Court on Saturday, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry said that conducting fair polls was an essential requirement of democracy, but the Election Commission’s request for deputing judicial officers as returning officers during the coming general elections would need to be carefully considered. The CJ also said that, while holding transparent polls was a key constitutional requirement, judicial involvement in the process needed careful consideration, keeping in mind the institution’s need to retain neutrality. He warned that the judiciary’s role in poll conduct had not gone well in the past and disturbed routine judicial functioning.

At the meeting, the EC secretary gave a briefing on arrangements made for ensuring transparency in the general elections. The EC has requested the presence of judicial officers at polling stations, arguing that they would be more effective than government servants who could be more susceptible to coercion by powerful politicians – as has happened in the past. The Waheeda Shah slapping incident in Sindh comes to mind. This is a delicate issue, and the CJ has made it clear that more thought is required when it comes to the judiciary’s role in ensuring free and fair elections. There are also other issues that require consideration. The SC had ruled on the means to limit election expenses, making the election campaign a fairer process. The EC code of conduct does not seem to take note of this. All these measures need to be considered to make the elections as transparent as possible, and set in place sound precedents for the future. As a starter the Fakhruddin G Ebrahim-led ECP should start asserting itself over issues in which it has the power to intervene. It should try and settle matters like pre-poll rigging and massive government spending on winning votes. It must establish credibility and demonstrate confidence that it can handle crooks and mafias. This is a prerequisite to holding transparent and fair polls.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The D-8 summit

November 19, 2012

The Developing-8 (D-8) summit opens in Islamabad on Monday. Founded in 1997, the D-8 is a group of developing nations that have large or majority Muslim populations. The current membership consists of Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey. The group is relatively low-key and does not have the impact of organisations such as Saarc or Asean, and its potential bargaining power is limited. Despite this, it is representative of about 60 percent of all Muslims globally, around 13 percent of the world’s population, and in that sense is significant. A summit is held every two years and Pakistan is going to host delegations from five states starting today. Two heads of state have declined to attend – Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh and the Malaysian prime minister. The president of Egypt, Muhammed Morsi, has shortened his stay to two days instead of four – he may reasonably plead that he has some pressing domestic problems erupting on his doorstep that require his presence – and Islamabad is festooned with posters and weighed down with potted plants at every road junction.

The purpose of the summit is to discuss ways in which member states can strengthen business and trade relations, and ties between Muslim-majority states. There are hopes that the moot will do something to enhance our battered international image and the government has set aside Rs97 million to pay for the pleasure of hosting it. Some countries are bringing large delegations – Nigeria with 150 and Iran with 100 delegates – and five-star accommodation in the capital area is going to be stretched to the limits. Some concerns have been expressed as to the timing of the event, falling as it does during Ashura when festive events are not normally held. Concerns have also been expressed that event management for the summit has been contracted to a person with little or no previous experience of handling anything similar. Events such as this do indeed offer us an opportunity to burnish our image. We can expect no major developments to come from the summit but if we can maximise the value of international networking, it could work to the benefit of all concerned. We can but hope for a hitch-free and productive meeting, and some enhancement of our trading opportunities downstream.

Toxic debts

November 19, 2012

The sheer scale of the debt burden that Pakistan has accumulated during the current government’s regime beggars belief. The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Information Compendium October 2012 report reveals that our total debts and liabilities from all sources have now reached Rs14,561 billion, as against Rs6,691 billion before 2008 when the present government was elected. These are not imaginary figures conjured up by some scaremonger; this is what the country actually owes a range of creditors, including international financial institutions, government domestic debt, government external debt, private sector internal and external liabilities, public sector enterprises external and domestic debt and what are termed ‘commodity operations’. Pakistan owes money – and a lot of it – in all these sectors. Disaggregating the figures tells us that every man, woman and child in the country carries a debt of Rs80,894 over and above whatever they may owe to whoever or whatever on a personal level – as against Rs37,170 in early 2008. Taking this further down the scale to the pocket of the common man, every single Pakistani would have to pay off Rs221.6 every day for a year to clear the burden. Millions earn far less than that.

The total debts and liabilities created in just four years are more than double of what was accumulated in the first 60 years since independence. At least 58 percent of the population is rated as ‘food insecure’ – as in they are not sure where the next meal is coming from. Reliable figures on the actual numbers of those who live in poverty have never been published by the current government, though there is ample evidence from credible sources that poverty continues to rise. The government continues to borrow billions from itself every day – by effectively printing money – and the black hole of debt yawns wider by the month. The government can blame nobody but itself for the current plight of the country. It comes down to old-fashioned corruption, ineptitude, bad policy making and massive tax evasion, which have all played their part. Unemployment continues to rise as will inflation in the next half-year and the economy will grow at a snail’s pace. Remittances are currently at a record level and in that sense provide an economic crutch – but not a solution. In fiscal terms we are in a crisis, in large part of our own making. Unmaking that crisis will be the challenge the next government faces, whichever party wins, and the remedy is going to be painful.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

As Gaza bleeds

November 20, 2012

There can be few sights more heart-wrenching than the bodies of children, bloodied and bruised and limbs at angles they were not designed for, that died for a cause and in a conflict of which they were innocent and unaware. The Al-Dallu family, all nine of them including five children, were wiped out by an Israeli missile on Sunday. According to the Israelis the target was the house next door and the Al-Dallus, now immortalised in death, were collateral damage. It was the bloodiest day yet in a “conflict” that is barely a week old, and the disproportionality of the numbers of dead and injured grows starker by the day. There were 31 killed in Gaza on Sunday and the death toll is now 86, with another 700 wounded. On the Israeli side – three dead and about 50 wounded. The pinprick of the Hamas missiles, most of which are intercepted by the Israeli anti-missile shield, is countered by artillery, rocket fire, air strikes and now naval bombardment. Israel is ratcheting up the tension by talking of ‘a significant expansion of its operations’.

The head of the UN Ban Ki-moon added his plaintive and ineffectual voice to those condemning the Israeli actions as a gross overreaction, and an Israeli envoy is said to be headed to Cairo to join talks that may bring an end – or at least a suspension of hostilities – to the conflict. A faint hope. Nothing is going to change for either side until the Israelis and their backers in the west and there are many, learn to live with the reality that is Hamas and the Palestinian state. The Hamas government in Gaza is democratically elected and entirely legitimate. The people of Gaza chose Hamas, nobody forced them to. Since they exercised their democratic right they have been blockaded, bullied, battered and generally abused by all and sundry, but mostly by the Israelis. Small wonder that the biter sometimes gets bitten, even if the bites are little more than irritants and not gaping wounds. Those that are attempting to broker a truce, including French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, are saying that “all fire must stop from Gaza first”, whilst the British Foreign Secretary William Hague was more openly critical of the Israelis, warning them that they stood to lose support by their current actions. As the diplomats blather, the men, women and children of Gaza run their blood in the streets.

Will and terror

November 20, 2012

Given the violence that has been ripping Karachi apart over the past week, with strong sectarian and ethnic motives visible, it should not have been hard to foresee the month of Muharram – a time when terrorist attacks have devastated Karachi before – could see more such attacks. Indeed Superintendant Police Rao Anwar has said the force had indeed anticipated this. However the measures taken were not enough to prevent a huge explosion in the Abbas Town area, near an imambargah where a majlis was taking place. Perhaps because the bombers could not reach the heavily protected venue itself, the explosives, planted on a motorbike, were left near a milk shop close to the imambargah. Three people were killed, 15 injured – including five Rangers personnel.

The blast on Sunday was, predictably enough, followed by calls for tighter security by national and provincial leaders, who also vociferously condemned the incident. But the fact is that the damage has been done, lives have been lost and greater fear will now mark the remaining days of what is amongst the holiest months on the Islamic calendar. It is also quite clear that no amount of security can work. The attackers this time were unable to reach their target; they simply detonated their bomb close by. Clearly not every street corner can be guarded constantly or every alley patrolled. The police have indicated that they believe the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) or Jundallah may have been behind the attack, judging by the pattern of the attack. They have also found that the motorcycle used may have had fake plates attached to it. Snatched vehicles are, security forces say, also being increasingly used for these incidents. These are key lines to work on. Outfits like the LeJ need to be broken up, its top leadership held. It is a mystery why this has not already happened, given that we have known for years about their involvement in terrorism. A drive is also required against vehicles with false numbers, or those seen in the city with no plates. This is crucial. But action against the most dangerous terrorist outfits by security forces must be backed by political will. This seems to be lacking, and is one of the reasons why attacks continue, why security forces have been made helpless. Rather than statements, the political leadership must muster up such will. Otherwise the threat of more bombs and more blood being shed is never very far away from here – no matter how many security personnel are deployed.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Army and polls

November 21, 2012

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is beginning to look suspiciously like it may be inclined to fulfil its mandate, move out of the political boxes that have constrained it for years, and make an effort to ensure that the next elections are as free and fair as may be possible. Not unnaturally the government is seen to be uneasy, despite protestations to the contrary made by Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf on Monday. Agencies such as the ECP, which display signs of independence, integrity even, are never going to allow heads more attuned to bending the rules than keeping them to sleep easy. Having got the support of the judiciary that has agreed to provide the services of judicial officers acting as district returning officers in the next elections, the ECP is now turning to the Pakistan Army and other law and order forces for help. Some may see a certain irony in seeking army assistance in the consolidation of a democratic process. Yet, given the precarious security situation which prevails across much of the country and the political situation that points to the possibility of the coming elections becoming more violent than polls in the past have been, this sounds more like common sense. Reposing trust in the military vis-à-vis the electoral process could also been seen as an indicator that we have moved on and that the army may be called on in support of the civil power rather than as a replacement for it.

It is also apparent that the ECP is not entirely trusting of the presidency in terms of it being able to maintain a non-partisan position electorally, standing above the process in a position of neutrality. That these concerns existed is evidenced by the necessity to place the position of the president on the code of conduct that details those who cannot, indeed must not, participate in the electoral process on a party-political basis. It is not enough just to complete a full term in office; democracy is more than a simple matter of longevity. Other attributes go with the democratic mantle, with transparency and freedom from corruption being two of those. Pakistan is so mired in the ‘Slough of Despond’ that there is no quick fix. Fully-formed democratic processes and institutions are going to take time to consolidate and see a range of political parties having held power. Democracy is a collaborative effort. The ECP is making the right moves and sending out the right signals. The army and other civilian agencies of law and order and the judiciary all have a part to play in this venture into democracy-building – in spite of, rather than because of, the way in which some of Pakistan’s politicians would like matters to be handled.

Narrow escape

November 21, 2012

The former chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, narrowly escaped death, after a suicide bomber, apparently a woman, detonated her suicide belt as his convoy passed through Haleemzai Tehsil in Mohmand Agency on Monday, where the former JI leader was inaugurating his party’s office. While the windshield of his vehicle was shattered, Qazi himself escaped unhurt. The political agent for Mohmand said that ‘foolproof’ security measures had been put in place, but due to cultural norms a woman could not be frisked. This factor of course means women or, as has happened in the past, men wearing ‘burqas’ make potentially lethal bombers.

Going beyond the issues of security, the question of course arises of who targeted Qazi. Conjecture has been coming in as quickly as the condemnations, with political leaders across the country lashing out against those who tried to kill the ex-JI chief. Talking to the media soon after the incident, Qazi Hussain Ahmad himself insisted that no ‘religious’ group would target him, and blamed militant violence primarily on pro-US government policies. This can safely be put aside as everyday politics. However, other opinions also exist. Experts find the attack very ‘Taliban-like’ in nature. A media report has suggested that Mohmand Agency’s Tehreek-e-Taliban chief may have been behind the attack, for Qazi is said to have been on the TTP’s hit list after stating in an interview a few months back that the ‘Afghan Taliban were engaged in jihad while their Pakistani counterparts were not.’ The entanglements of extremism are complex so it may still be too early to say who was behind the attack. For now all that can be said is that Qazi Sahib is lucky to have escaped unhurt.

Obama in Asia

November 21, 2012

The American ‘pivot’ towards the east and the Pacific region continues to gather form and traction, and the Obama visit to Thailand and Myanmar (Burma) are loaded with significance. The US and Thailand have a strong relationship going back decades, and the Obama visit to Bangkok was to do little more than reaffirm a pre-existing bilateral partnership. The US is Thailand’s second-largest trading partner after Japan, and the American inwards investment is estimated at $21 billion. The issue both face and will further collaborate on is drug trafficking. Both countries have cooperated in ‘the war of terror’ and the Obama visit is probably also aimed at adding a little counterweight to the Chinese influence in the region.

Myanmar is a different kettle. For decades Myanmar has been a pariah state, virtually excluded from the comity of nations in part by its own choice but in larger part at the rejection by a wider world of its totalitarian military regime that has suppressed democracy and stifled protest. But it is seen now as coming in from the cold and the process which has seen the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the inclusion of opposition parties in parliament after recent by-elections bodes well. The changes are not, as some claim, irreversible and it is conceivable that Myanmar would get cold feet and withdraw again. Obama has made it plain that he views Myanmar as a ‘work in progress’ rather than a finished job. The rapid changes of the last two years have lowered but not eliminated the levels of brutality used by the regime that is still run in the background by the military. Myanmar is host to one of the most pressing of humanitarian problems faced by the world today – the plight of the Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State, a people generally regarded as the most discriminated against in the world. Obama spoke in Rangoon for 30 minutes, focusing mostly on his vision of a prosperous and democratic Myanmar. The ties between the USA and the ASEAN states are going to come closer to the fore, and the struggle between America and China for regional influence may now be well and truly joined.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga