The time to act is nigh

By Zafar Hilaly

The respect, bordering on reverence, the military has suddenly developed for parliament is amazing. Unless parliament arrives at a consensus and gives the armed forces a clear and unequivocal mandate to launch an operation in North Waziristan, the army will not budge, says Kayani, in so many words. Thereby, confirming once again how useful having a poor memory is for an alibi, although a grand memory for forgetting is even better.

Consider; the military consulted no one, not even the prime minister, before embarking on the operation in Kargil in 1999, though that nearly led to a war with India. Similarly, in 1965, Ayub Khan rushed pell-mell into war when, what to speak of political parties, even the military was divided. Likewise, in 1971, and before that, the military launched an army operation in East Pakistan although all political parties, except that of ZA Bhutto, were opposed to such a move.

True, things seem different now, but not really. Our political tableau has remained largely frozen. The military gets its way when it really wants to regardless of what the politicians say or feel.

Thus no one fell for the ‘lack of consensus in parliament’ ploy being bandied about as the reason for the army abandoning plans for the NWA operation.

But whether the military changed its plans out of sheer funk or because of the blowback or, more likely, because the army could end up with nothing to show for its exertions is not really that important. What is important, however, is why is the military making a fetish of parliament reaching a ‘political consensus’ when any fool knows that the loads of Taliban sympathisers in parliament, and the oodles more outside, render a consensus impossible. Is it, therefore, a case of ingenious fools being too clever to be wise or is the military playing its favourite game – politics? Take your pick.

As for Chaudhry Nisar’s suspicion that the resolution is a government ploy to postpone elections conjured up by the master trickster Zardari, that’s way off the mark. Zardari’s grip on the military has never been such that he can manipulate them for his own ends. Actually, the contrary is a truer depiction of the military’s role in current day politics.

So, if a firm parliamentary consensus on an operation in NWA targeting the TTP (and not the Haqqanis) is a forlorn hope, does that mean the military has forsaken NWA? Quite possibly, till something else happens that will resonate more powerfully with the fauj than the attempted murder of Malala. And meanwhile? Consider growing beards, walling up the wife at home, throwing out the TVs and preparing to curry favour with our new masters, the TTP.

And why not? The ordinary civilian is terrified of the TTP that has made killing a cult, almost an obsession, and in the process immobilised the army, slaughtered soldiers by the scores, driven away, terrified or killed local opponents and effectively taken over a large chunk of Pakistan.

But surely, that’s only more reason why the TTP must be stopped. So what’s gone wrong?

Well, to begin with, instead of asking what would happen if the military does not respond in a timely manner to eliminate the TTP threat – that is, what will the military’s failure to act cost Pakistan in lives and treasure, our generals seem to be concentrating on what will happen if they act to save Pakistan; and the easiest, least risky, politically correct and most sellable way of achieving that goal. Forgetting that no one really cares how the enemy is defeated, that is, whether by strategy or valour. All that the public wants is to say ‘woe to the vanquished’ and get on with our lives.

While the establishment vacillates, ruminates and ponders the wisdom of conducting an operation, a smart, flexible and adaptable TTP enemy is becoming more confident, increasingly bolder and infinitively more lethal. A former colleague, himself a Pakhtun, had this to say: ‘A massive well co-ordinated action, utilising all agencies, cannot be delayed any more. The longer we take the stronger they will get. Already we have allowed them too much space’.

Actually, it may already be too late. The TTP has captured the aura of legitimacy and leadership in some areas and is thus able to recruit enough followers. What is more, by disrupting the administration of the areas of operation and eliminating local allies of the government it has become the dominant power in Fata. And having killed or chased away the representatives of Islamabad it has created an alternative administration. Moreover, our failure to formulate a military response to an attack on our citizens, like Malala, suggests that the TTP has little to fear from military retaliation especially now that it has safe havens in Afghanistan.

But that’s not all, the TTP also has other things going for it and by that I don’t mean only a faltering economy, poor governance and corruption et al or the antics of our interior minister.

The regime is acting as if fighting the insurgency is nothing more than a mere nine-to-five affair. Just about everything else seems to have greater priority, including the number of nationalities to which the MNAs belong, etc, etc. As for the public, having exhausted their energies in tirades against their fate, they are now resigned to it. There is no one to say, as Gamal Abdul Nasser said to the multitude at Alexandria, ‘Rise up, because fate does not jest and events are not a matter of chance. Make your own history’.

Perhaps more dangerous is the prevalent belief that all conflicts can be settled by negotiation. In other words, we can yak, yak, yak our way out of trouble; and that the soft power approach, like prattling on about the benefits of democracy, individual rights and liberty will persuade dyed in the wool fanatics of the TTP to lay down their arms and go home although we know that won’t happen.

Recall, in 2008, the TTP refused outrageously generous terms offered by the ANP provincial regime. It was being allowed not only to retain its weapons and freedom to go about its ways but also promised jobs and dollops of developmental assistance. Essentially the TTP was to be left intact (and ready to kill again) in return for a mere assurance of not attacking the military and police and generally abiding by the law. But even that was not good enough for the TTP which mocked the offer before rejecting it out of hand.

The arrogance of the enemy and the risk aversion penchant of the military and politicians is a potent mix setting the stage for a self-imposed tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

Half a millennium ago, the Italian political philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli reminded his readers that a nation cannot use patience, forbearance or goodness to subdue enemies; it must exact vengeance through punitive actions that annihilate present enemies and make their successors think twice before pushing attacks that risk the same response. The only mercy in war time is a quick and effective victory.

Of course, in our case that won’t happen overnight. The war is likely to be a generational struggle. True, every opportunity to arrive at a peaceful settlement must be seized. But we cannot act like a political streetwalker accosting the TTP with a ‘come home with me dear’ look because that will get us peace. If we continue to shrink from the hard contest lest we risk lives then all we can hope for is an ignoble peace and eventually not even that.

Source: The time to act is nigh