India’s stake in a stable Pakistan

As government-to-government talks resume between India and Pakistan, it is time to consider other channels of engagement that can contribute to improving relations or at least minimising the distrust between the two countries. Cricket helps, of course, and we can hope that the World Cup now underway may rekindle some of the good spirit among fans that prevailed some years ago.
But the interaction needs to be constant rather than episodic: and it needs to move beyond the symbolic and dialogic to the substantive and tangibly beneficial.
The best option would be to intensify trade between the two countries. It is true that when countries trade goods, they are less likely to trade blows (although there are famous and violent exceptions as with Germany and the rest of Europe prior to World War I). While there is consensus that this is a good idea, little has been done to realise it.
A major obstacle to expanding Indo-Pak trade is in fact our two governments. Pakistan does not grant most-favoured nation status to exports from India. India does – but Pakistan claims that MFN status does not translate into greater exports from Pakistan because trade barriers, especially in areas of Pakistani comparative advantage such as textiles and clothing, remain high. Claims and counter-claims fly between the two capitals, echoing the stilted sound of the security discourse. It’s time, therefore, to think beyond the traditional, and to look for other economic options.
Consider the following possibility. Both Pakistan and India are searching for ways to improve their educational outcomes. Recent Indian experience offers one interesting lesson – which could benefit Pakistan. The demand for education, especially English-language education, changed dramatically in India with the rise of the information technology sector. The returns to possessing English language-cum-computer skills increased so dramatically that parents started seeking education and the private and non-government sector stepped in to make up for the dysfunctionality of the public sector. All over the streets of metropolitan and small town India, it’s possible to see the evidence – proliferating signage, announcing hole-in-the-wall operations teaching English and computing.
In Pakistan, the spread of modern technical education is not just an economic necessity as in India; it’s also something of an existential imperative. Modern education may be a way to check some of the more pernicious effects of those madrassas that spread religion-inspired illiberalism. Creating the incentives for seeking such technical education will require a dynamic information technology sector, and here the Indian private sector could make a difference.
Suppose, for example, that Narayana Murthy, Azim Premji, Shiv Nadar, Anand Mahindra, and Ratan Tata announced the following. Together the quintet would commit to creating the basis for a new IT sector in Pakistan within five years. The commitment would require as a first step physical investments in IT-technical institutes as well as imparting skills – including English language competence – to thousands of young Pakistanis in newly created facilities within Pakistan itself. It would also involve locating BPO centres in Pakistan, to provide employment for the newly-trained youth.
To that end, the crowning commitment that our business leaders could make would be a declaration that says five percent of the value added on all international contracts that they receive over the next 10 years would be from the newly created Pakistan-based facilities. In other words, when Indian IT firms deliver a final product overseas, they will have to ensure that the quality of Pakistani input is up to world standards: that is the risk that they will have to incur. But if successful, Pakistan can show the world its capability in this sector. In that sense, India would be committing to creating a Pakistan brand for IT – as part of its own, inclusive and forward-looking ‘Brand India’.
This initiative is minimally demanding on the two governments, especially the Indian government. While some forms of distance-training, making use of the technology itself, could be developed, no doubt some initial movement of Indians to Pakistan would inevitably be required, in order to help establish and run the training centres. Therefore, some reliable security arrangements would be necessary. But since the emphasis would be on self-skilling, with a view to Pakistanis rapidly moving into training and management positions, the physical presence of Indians in Pakistan could be minimised.
The prospects for success would be good. After all, the basis of India’s comparative advantage in IT – low cost and qualified English-speaking technical personnel – is replicable in Pakistan. In terms of infrastructure requirements on Pakistan too, the IT sector is relatively less demanding, both in terms of sheer scale of investment and challenges of security management. Creating the necessary forms of digital connectivity is easier than trying to build power plant infrastructure or to police a gas or oil pipeline.
Success would bring with it real social and economic benefits to Pakistan, as well as political gains to India. There would be economic costs to India – the foregone Indian value-added for example – but incurring them would demonstrate India’s stake in, and contribution to, a stable and prosperous Pakistan. And it would be a chance for our increasingly mature and confident private sector to take the lead in a matter vital to the subcontinent’s future – to step boldly where neither of our two governments has been willing to tread.

Iran and Pakistan: Six decades of brotherly relations
By staff writer
TEHRAN TIMES
Pakistan won its independence from the British Empire on August 14, 1947. Iran was the first country to extend diplomatic recognition to the newborn Islamic state. Since that time Pakistan and Iran enjoyed close brotherly relations.


These bonds of friendship and brotherhood, based on commonality of interests, shared traditions, common faith and Islamic heritage are destined to grow stronger in the years ahead to the mutual benefit of the two nations.

Hafiz, Saadi, Rumi and Iqbal are household names in Pakistan and Iran. The leadership of Pakistan and Iran, at all levels, acknowledge and highlight the importance of all these common bonds.

There is a strong desire of the two peoples to further strengthen the bilateral ties in all fields. These relations have been marked by frequent high-level consultations between the leadership of the two countries.

The leadership and the governments of the two countries are fully committed and dedicated to carry forward the strong bonds of friendship and to utilize the institutional framework already in place for promoting political, economic and commercial relations for mutual benefit of the peoples of the two countries. The two governments are determined to continue their efforts to further build on the mutual bonds and commonalities.

Pakistan and Iran share common perception on international and regional issues and closely cooperate at various world fora. Pakistan and Iran understand and appreciate each other’s position on different regional and international issues. As both countries are founding members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), they are working together to promote cultural and economic cooperation among the member states of the organization.

In the regional context, the peace process initiated by Pakistan with India holds a great promise for the future of South Asia and in turn for peace and security of the whole region. Pakistan is fully committed to the dialogue process and is willing to go the extra mile to revive and revitalize it.

Pakistan and Iran are equally determined to fight the scourge of terrorism. Both countries are victims of it and are opposed to it in all its forms and manifestations.

The commercial and economic relations between Pakistan and Iran constitute an important aspect of their relations. It is a matter of satisfaction that these relations are growing with each passing day. The volume of bilateral trade in the year 2008-2009 was over 1 billion dollars.

The gas pipeline project represents the most important milestone on the road to enhancing bilateral economic relationship. In June, 2009, Pakistan and Iran signed Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) while the attached agreements that is, operations Agreement and Heads of Agreement for Transit and Transportation of Iranian gas to India have been finalized and will be signed shortly. The gas flow is scheduled to start in mid 2014. This will lay solid foundation for economic collaboration and bring economic progress and prosperity in both the countries.

It is a matter of great satisfaction that Pakistan and Iran are working in tandem to develop their deep-rooted historical ties strengthen regional and international cooperation and safeguard the interests of the Muslim Ummah. Both have made remarkable contribution towards global peace and security. The bonds of brotherhood between Pakistan and Iran would continue to grow in years ahead to the mutual advantage of the two brotherly peoples as well as for regional peace and security.

Every year, on March 23, the Pakistani people commemorate their National Day in remembrance of “The Pakistan Resolution” passed on March 23, 1940, in the historic city of Lahore.

On this day, the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent pledged to create an independent homeland, where they could live in accordance with their religious and cultural values.

This day reminds us of the momentous times when the Indian Muslims rallied around the dynamic leadership of Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah and carved out an independent sovereign country.

From that momentous day in 1940, Pakistan has come a long way. Having attained independence on 14th August 1947 against seemingly insurmountable odds, the country has been confronted with many challenges both external and internal after independence.

It most certainly goes to the credit of the Pakistani nation that they have always risen to the occasion and successfully overcome adversity by demonstrating patriotism, steadfastness, resilience and unwavering faith in Almighty Allah.

The country is rapidly moving on the path of progress and development. Reforms in all sectors have been successfully introduced and are bearing fruit. A new direction has been given to the country in line with the principles observed by nation’s founding fathers. It is encouraging to note that the economic sector has witnessed impressive gains with around 6% GDP growth rate over the last five years.[/COLOR]

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Iran-Pakistan relations
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Iran-Pakistan relations

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Plan for ‘Pak-China friendship year 2011′ chalked outAPP
January 11, 2011
"The year 2011 is declared as the 'Pak-China Friendship Year' during the recent visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Pakistan." — File Photo
ISLAMABAD: A comprehensive action plan to celebrate Pakistan-China Friendship year 2011 has been chalked out, focusing on wider interaction between the two countries’ leadership and the people through joint activities and exchanges.

According to a mutually agreed plan between Pakistan and China, the rich array of 69 events in diplomatic, cultural and educational areas spans the entire year with an average of five events a month and as many as 14 in May and 12 in November.

The year 2011 was declared as the ‘Pak-China Friendship Year’ during the recent visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Pakistan, wherein the two governments decided to celebrate 60th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Pak diplomatic relations with full fervor.

January-March:

Salient events in the year’s first quarter include holding a forum on Pak-China people-to-people friendship’, Chinese Spring Festival on January 27-31, special business forum and nation-wide essay writing competition on Pak-China friendship for school and college students.

Pakistani officials will visit China to participate in Western China International Fair, Urumqi Fair and Kashghar International Fair, while a 100-member Chinese youth delegation is already in Pakistan.

A delegation of Pakistan’s print and electronic media will visit China in February while the visit of women parliamentarians will take place in March. A delegation of Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs will visit Pakistan in March.

Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation will organize a special ceremony for airing China Radio International FM programme in Pakistan. The Pakistan Television (PTV) will hold weekly Chinese language classes from March onwards.

April-June:

Besides a leadership level visit from Pakistan to China, the plan’s second quarter holds a significant chunk for sports that comprises friendly matches by the cricket teams of Pakistan and China in Islamabad and Lahore, visit of Pakistan’s women cricket team to China and a Pak-China Friendship Golf Tournament in April.

Pak-China Business Summit will also be held in the same month.

The cultural activities include a painting and photographic exhibition at Pak-China Friendship Centre along with performances by Chinese arts troupe. Pakistani performing arts troupe will also visit China in May.

Commemorative stamps and a coin will be issued while a book on Pak-China relations will be launched in May.

The Pak-China mountaineering expedition will head to Korakorum heights in June.

July-September:

The two countries will undergo military-to-military exchanges and friendship exercises in August.

A delegation of Pakistan Foreign Office Women Association will visit China in August, whereas the students from Pakistan study centres in Tsinghua University and Sichuan University will also arrive here in the same month.

Workshop on traditional Chinese medicine, a ‘Conservation and biodiversity seminar’ and a seminar on ‘Silk Road and harmonious interaction between civilizations’ at Confucius Institute, will be held in Islamabad.

A documentary on travel of Chinese monk Xuanzang to Taxila and impact of Gandhara on Chinese civilization will be telecast by PTV.

In September, the young Chinese diplomats and the Urdu speaking Chinese students and faculty from the South Asian Department of Peking University and Beijing Foreign Studies University, will visit Pakistan.

Chinese hockey team will also visit Pakistan in September.

October-December:

In October, the arts and culture activities include holding of Chinese Film Festival in Islamabad, joint production on film documentary on Pak-China friendship and publication of anthology of poetry translated by Pakistan’s first envoy to China Ahmad Ali.

A delegation of Chinese Armed Forces Police Hospital and the China Earthquake Bureau to Pakistan will visit here in October to commemorate Chinese medical missions during Kashmir earthquake (2005) and floods (2010).

In November, the Chinese leadership will visit Pakistan.

The cultural activities in November include photographic exhibition and Pak-China music festival in Islamabad and a performance by Chinese Handicapped Association to China titled ‘My Dream’ in China.

The students of Chinese language from National University of Modern Languages (NUML) and young Pakistani diplomats will visit China while Chinese celebrities will come to Pakistan.

The third meeting of ECG and the 15th meeting of China- Pakistan Economy and Trade Joint Committee and another China- Pakistan Forum will be held simultaneously in December.

Chinese soccer team and a delegation of Chinese Writers Association will visit Pakistan in late December.

Apart from fixed monthly schedule, the additional packages include running of special friendship train by Pakistan Railways from Rawalpindi to Karachi, while Pakistan International Airlines will arrange special friendship tours between Pakistan and China.

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Analysis Report - Chinese Aided Development Projects in Pakistan

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Sino-Pakistan relations higher than Himalayas
By Asif Ali Zardari (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-02-23 07

Perhaps no relationship between two sovereign states is as unique and durable as that between Pakistan and China. On the Pakistan side of the Himalayas, the mighty range that separates the two countries, China is seen as a true, time tested and reliable friend that has always come through for Pakistan. That the Pakistan-China friendship is higher than the peaks of Himalayas is now a truism without exaggeration. I am certain that on the Chinese side a similar sentiment exists for Pakistan. It is a friendship rooted in the hearts and minds of the people of the two countries.

It is my privilege to visit China for the second time as Pakistani president. For me the Pakistan-China friendship is a beautiful legacy bequeathed by Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan's legendary Foreign and Prime Minister and his daughter and my late wife Shaheed Benazir Bhutto, also a beloved Prime Minister of Pakistan.

The Pakistan Peoples Party and our family have had a three-generation relationship with China. From Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and then my late wife Shaheed Benazir Bhutto to my son and PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the friendship continues into the future.

I cannot but feel excited whenever I visit China. It brings great pleasure to see a friend such as China prospering and progressing. Present day China is a shining star on the international scene. It represents a phenomenal renaissance of the ancient and great Chinese Civilization. The Chinese economic miracle is a lesson in sound management and solid governance. The manner in which China is developing its infrastructure is an inspiration for countries across the world. The Xining-Lhasa railroad, the Three Gorges Dam and countless other projects bear testimony to Chinese industry and vision.

The Pakistan-China friendship is a comprehensive partnership. China has been instrumental in helping Pakistan develop its civil and military infrastructure. It has helped Pakistan's economic development. Chinese assistance and enterprise has been invaluable in areas as diverse as construction of nuclear power plants to dams, roads and industrial estates. The port of Gwadar on Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast is a testament to China's friendship with Pakistan.

It is my sincere desire to further cement this relationship. There is no reason the two countries cannot grow even closer. China has become the economic engine of Asia. It is among the sheet anchors of the international trading and economic system. In the present global economic downturn, China is among the few countries that have the economic muscle to pull the world out of it.

China's trade with many of its neighbors is increasing at a dizzying pace. Pakistan needs to join this trend. I believe there is great potential for improvement in this vital area. Pakistan-China economic and trade relations must keep pace with political relations between the two countries. We have therefore placed economic cooperation and trade at the heart of this relationship. The two countries have a joint five-year economic plan to give predictability and to allow forward planning in various areas of economic cooperation. We also have a free trade agreement with China and hope to finalize a trade in services agreement shortly.

Our objective is to forge win-win partnerships in which both countries gain and which further contribute to the strength of the friendship.


Pakistan too can help in China's growth. The global economic downturn may have slowed things down but as the world emerges out of this recession and China resumes its breakneck growth, Chinese ports are going to get clogged. Given proper infrastructure, the Pakistani ports of Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar are nearer to the Chinese heartland than Shanghai and Hong Kong. Pakistan can also help channel energy supplies from the Gulf to China. Pakistan is also a sizeable country in its own right. Once we get our economic fundamentals right we can be a useful economic partner, a significant market and a profitable destination for investment.

However in the final analysis it is not just the material benefits of a relationship that determine its durability and longevity. The Pakistan-China relationship is much more than a strategic confluence of interests between two countries. The foundation of the relationship, which Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had the vision to pursue and cement, is that both countries firmly believe in the principles of sovereign equality, non-interference and bilateral cooperation. They share a close commonality of views on most international issues.

China is an anchor of stability and peace not only in Asia but the world. Its peaceful rise in a continent full of large countries each with a strong sense of identity, even destiny, bears testimony to the sagacity and wisdom of the Chinese leadership. Situated in the heart of Asia, bordering fourteen countries with Japan and the Philippines just across the Yellow and South China Seas, China is the glue holding the continent together - not only in terms of geography but in political and economic terms.

It is amongst the largest if not the largest trading partner of all the countries bordering it. Each of these countries has increasingly large stakes in China's economy and each in turn is benefiting from the traction generated by this enormous engine of growth.

China is therefore in a unique position to use these attributes to help its neighboring countries improve relations among and between themselves. For too long, Asia has been distracted by rivalries and conflicts between its many great countries. The time has come for Asia to show the world a different path where cooperation leads the way and where mutual respect and increasing bonds of trade and economic benefit help overcome hostility and suspicion.

As Pakistan grapples with the threat of terrorism, China can help in this area too. Pakistan is fighting terrorists not only for its own sake but for the entire region. We are determined not to allow the noxious fumes of this dangerous phenomenon and ideology to spread to other countries. Thousands of Pakistani citizens, civilian and military, have laid down their lives in this endeavor. Indeed terrorists have specifically targeted some of our Chinese friends who were working in Pakistan to drive a wedge between the two countries and peoples. The sacrifice of these Chinese citizens for Pakistan's cause is an abiding reminder to us Pakistanis of China's friendship with our country.

This time I will visit Wuhan and Yichang of Hubei province, and Shanghai to see for myself some of the engines that lie behind China's economic growth. I hope to learn and benefit from the opportunity. I hope that the coming days will help furnish better reminders of our enduring friendship and I hope my visit will serve as one more step in that direction.

Asif Ali Zardari is the President of Pakistan

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Exploring the China-Pakistan Relationship | CNA

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PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY PREDICAMENTS POST 9/11: An Analysis

by Dr. Subhash Kapila

General Background: Pakistan faces grave foreign policy predicaments in the aftermath of the Islamic Jehadi bombings of the citadels of United States power in New York and Washington on the morning of September 11, 2001. Within hours of these despicable acts, Pakistan’s strategic delinquencies brought it face to face with a most traumatic imposition by the United States ultimatum, namely: Pakistan should spin on its head, discard the Taliban, discard Islamic Jehad, discard Islamic fundamentalists and become an accomplice in the American military intervention in Afghanistan or else face the consequences.

Pakistan’s military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, buckled under the United States ultimatum and agreed unconditionally to all American demands. The Taliban was discarded overnight and the United States was provided bases in Pakistan for launching military operations against Pakistan’s erstwhile ally in Afghanistan. To save his own skin, General Pervez Musharraf provided the scalps of his fellow Islamic fundamentalist Generals by sacking his trusted colleagues and those who brought him into power “in abstentia’.

General Pervez Musharraf addressed the Pakistani nation on television and sought to make a virtue out of his necessity for a sell-out of Pakistan’s long held foreign policy and strategic objectives. General Pervez Musharraf even went to the extent of invoking Islamic scriptures (an eye opener) as to how even “no war” pacts with an enemy could be entered into as a temporizing measure by an Islamic State for the sake of political or strategic expediency and could then be reneged later on to defeat the enemy. The reference logically seems to have been implied against the United States, in that Pakistan could back out of its commitments to USA, post-9/11 (see this authors paper: “Pakistan’s President Musharraf Unmasked” SAAG Paper No.324 dated 21-09-01.)

The United States, too, played along this game. General Musharraf’s unconditional capitulation to serve American strategic interests of the moment was rewarded with Musharraf’s ‘beatification’, Pakistan’s sins were pardoned and a nation which was being termed as a ‘failed state’, just before 9/11 stood redeemed as a ‘valuable partner of the global coalition against terrorism’.

Notwithstanding, the ‘spins’ given by both Pakistan and the United States to post-9/11 Pakistan-specific events, an objective analysis would reveal that one only has to scratch the surface of this hype and see that Pakistan faces serious foreign policy predicaments post-9/11. It is different that like ‘delayed action shock’ the shock-visitation begins later on Pakistan.

In the analysis below, India is not being discussed, as Pakistan’s foreign policy predicaments transcend its India-specific fixations. Currently, the only satisfaction being derived by Pakistan and General Musharraf is that Pakistan’s post-9/11 reversal of its foreign policies have discomfited India and tangentially enabled Pakistan to internationalize the Kashmir question.

Pakistan’s Current International Image-Rogue State Exporting Global Terrorism & Nuclear Proliferation: It would be a travesty of truth to subscribe and agree to the official United States depiction of Pakistan and its military ruler. The truth that is emerging post-9/11, is that:

* Pakistan was the cess-pool of Islamic Jehadi global terrorism whose most diabolic visitation was on the United States.

* The 9/11 bombers were in one way or the other linked to Pakistan’s official machinery and patronage.

* Post-9/11 arrests of the Al Qaeda hierarchy and others have been in Pakistan, only due to sheer persistence of the American FBI operating inside Pakistan.

* As if exporting Islamic Jehadi terrorism was not enough, evidence has emerged in the United States of Pakistan exporting nuclear weapons know-how and materials to North Korea, even after 9/11, under General Musharraf’s regime. Pakistan’s international image today is not only of a ‘failed state’ but also that of a “rogue state” caught blatantly in exporting global terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Shameless denials by Pakistan on both these counts add to Pakistan’s foreign policy predicaments.

Pakistan and the United States-Denouement Inevitable: Promiscuous relationships are never of long duration. The history of Pakistan-United States relations is an ample indicator. Pakistan’s current promiscuous relationship with the United States is on more shakier foundations than the past.

General Musharraf may have discarded the Taliban but he has not been able to discard the Islamic fundamentalist parties of Pakistan. They were his “natural allies” and of the Pakistan Army. In the Army controlled elections that have taken place in October, the Islamic fundamentalist parties have emerged victorious in unprecedented strength. But for American intervention, the Prime Minister would have been from these parties.

One swallow does not make a summer and therefore one Pakistan General cannot deliver a moderate, democratic and stable Pakistan to serve United States national interests.

Pakistan’s foreign policy planners cannot ignore the United States in a unipolar world. Pakistan’s ‘China card’ is not operative in this context.

The election results in Pakistan should be an ample indicator to the United States that Pakistan cannot be rescued from the morass of Islamic fundamentalism. Islamic fundamentalist parties have already made the following demands in the opening session of the Pak National Assembly, in November 2002:

* Pakistan must withdraw the use of its military bases by the United States armed forces

* United States must withdraw its military forces from Pakistan

* Their governments in the provinces of NWFP and Baluchistan will not permit US military forces to conducts military operations on the Pak-Afghan border.

* Pakistanis must ‘self determine’ the nation's domestic policies. Pakistan today is controlled by Islamic fundamentalists. No more evidence was required as by the Pakistani officials attendance at the funeral of Kansi, who was involved in CIA killings and who was executed in USA and his body brought to Quetta. Pakistani officialdom was represented at this funeral by the entire civil hierarchy of Baluchistan, the local Pakistan Army Corps Commander and the Pakistani Ambassador in USA, Ashraf Jahangir Qazi..

Pakistan’s major foreign policy predicament would now be as to how to keep United States engaged with Pakistan, so as to ensure that the Kashmir issue is kept alive with American support, and American ire is kept at bay.

The scenario above does not permit a proximate Pak-USA engaged relationship. Denouncement is inevitable as Pakistan finds it increasingly impossible to curb growth of Islamic fundamentalism.

It should not be viewed as inconceivable that the United States demands Pakistan’s accountability over its nuclear proliferation, sequentially, after it completes its mission in Iraq. Panel discussions on Pakistan TV have aired fears that after Iraq, Pakistan may be the next target of the United States for the same reasons- WMD, export of terrorism and nuclear proliferation .

Pakistan’s China Card- How Long?: Whenever Pakistan is hemmed in strategically, it turns to China for military and political support. China has always obliged Pakistan on this account. Once again in panel discussions on Pakistan TV, demands are being made that as response to contemporary developments, Pakistan should sharpen and over play its China card in its foreign policy contexts with both the United States and Russia.

The question that arises in this context is as to how long Pakistan can play the China card and for how long China can oblige? Pakistan does provide some strategic pressure points to China against the United States. More prominently the Karakoram Highway linked to the Chinese assisted naval base coming at Gwadar, in close proximity to the Straits of Hormuz. However, one tight rap from the United States can deter both Pakistan and China from any strategic mischief in this regard.

China has no “natural allies” as this author has maintained in many of his writings, and Pakistan at best for China, is an unnatural and inconsequential ally. Pakistan cannot contribute to China’s strategic strength, it can only detract from China’s strategic strength, if China continues to rely on it. China has alternative options in Iran and Pakistan is dispensable at some stage. Despite the protestations of both of “eternal friendship”. Pakistan has major foreign policy predicaments in ensuring the longevity of the Pak-China strategic relationship. Pakistan’s analysts have begun recording the change in nuances in China’s foreign policies.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has been a consistent supporter in providing finances not only for Pakistan’s Islamic Jehadi apparatus and export of terrorism but also under writing Pakistan’s nuclear weapon and missile arsenal.

Saudi Arabia could afford to do this all along, secure in the belief that the United States would not deter it as long as American strategic interests were served. But the events of 9/11 have added over whelming strains to the Saudi-USA relationship.

In the changed circumstances post-9/11, in the absence or dilution of unstinted Saudi support for Pakistan’s foreign policy and military adventurism, Pakistan’s foreign policy planners would be hard put to find alternative options.

Pakistan’s Image in the Islamic /Arab World: Pakistan’s image in the Islamic and Arab world has taken a severe beating post-9/11. In the perceptions of the common masses in the Islamic/Arab world, Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda are Islamic heroes. 9/11 is viewed as Islamic retribution for the wrongs perceived to have been inflicted on the Islamic world by the United States.

In such a milieu, Pakistan’s complicity with the United States in discarding overnight all its linkages and sponsorship of Pak-Islamic causes cannot be said to have gone down well in the Islamic world. Pakistan is viewed as a willing associate of the ‘ Great Satan’ in the persecution of Muslims and hence acting against the interests of Islam, itself.

Pakistan in its foreign policies and especially against its causes against India used to rally support in the Islamic /Arab world on its Islamic credentials especially as the patron of pan Islamic causes. It has serious predicaments now in mustering this support .

Pakistan and Russia: Pakistan and Russia have never been the best of friends, ever since Pakistan’s involvement in the creation of the Islamic Mujahideen earlier and Taliban later –both vehemently against Russian interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s export of Islamic Jehadi terrorism to Chechenya and that extension by Chechens to the heart of Moscow, hardly leaves any space for spectacular developments in Pak-Russia relations.

President Putin’s visit to India and his strong denunciation of Pakistan’s export of state sponsored terrorism to Russia and India has been viewed with disfavour. In the panel discussions on Pakistan TV following Putin’s visit it was being maintained that to counteract the Russia stance, Pakistan must play its ‘ China Card “ more strongly and imaginatively.

It is debatable whether Pakistan’s ‘China-Card “ can induce China to checkmate Russia in any strong diplomatic initiatives against Pakistan and its links to Islamic Jehad.

Pakistan and West Europe: Post 9/11 the vast Al Qaeda network in Europe has come into focus with a host of sleeper cells operating in Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy, France etc. Arrests of Al Qaeda linked terrorists from these countries and their linkages with Pakistan cannot but bring focus on Pakistan’s insidious policies of state sponsored terrorism.

While some of the European countries, notably Britain, have extolled Pakistan, the remainder cannot remain oblivious to long term implications of Al Qaeda sleeper cells, likely to be nurtured in the Islamic and more specially Pakistan expatriate communities existing in Europe. Pakistan’s external relationships with West European counties should logically therefore reflect this strain, and hence its emergence as a foreign policy predicament.

Conclusion: Pakistan has glossified its post 9/11 foreign policies as major strategic gains by offsetting the logical punitive measures that the United States should have imposed for Pakistan’s involvement in the 9/11 bombings. It may be partly true but yet it is undeniable that Pakistan’s Islamic Jehadi terrorism/proliferation have been brought into sharp focus with all its attendand implications.

It is also inconceivable that the United States which has not so far held Pakistan accountable for its involvement in the Islamic Jehadi terrorism will let Pakistan off the hook on its nuclear terrorism. United States was permissive of Pakistan’s state sponsored terrorism as long as Islamic Jehadi terrorism had not visited USA and also partly as recompense for Pakistan’s past services in Afghanistan.

Nuclear terrorism which includes nuclear proliferation to ‘rogue states’ by a ‘rogue state’ is however a different kettle of fish. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons exports to North Korea not only impinges on US security interests in Japan, South Korea and the Pacific, but also raises the spectre of the likelihood of Pak nuclear weapons/materials/know how being passed on to the Al Qaeda cells still thriving in Pakistani cities. The United States will have to soon face the stark reality that ‘failing states’ are not a risk to United States security but it is ‘failed states’ turning into ‘rogue nuclear states ’which pose a major danger to USA. More so when further 9/11's on US soil emanating from Pakistani soil cannot be ruled out.

Pakistan’s biggest foreign policy predicament now would be how to deflect the inevitable United States retribution on this score. It may not look to be there presently but it should be coming soon as any American permissiveness on this score now, with prospects of further 9/11’s in the offing could seriously impact on the United States both domestically and externally. And when US retribution does come to visit Pakistan, the China card’ would be of no avail.

The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email <drsubhash kapila @yahoo.com>

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Pak-US Relations: TIME FOR PAKISTAN TO RE ASSERT | Opinion Maker

download it

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups...npan018848.pdf

consult it also

http://www.bhutto.org/Acrobat/Forieg...20Pakistan.pdf

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