Nope I have neither said that the relations between India and Russia are withered nor said that it may be a security issue.

My dear friend, Sergey Lavrov is not the President of Russia. By visit of Russian President to Pakistan, the whole world will get a great message that Russia is on the side of Pakistan and India may not like any such benefit to go to Pakistan...

Yes ,I knew Sergey Lavrov was not president ,but very high profile person in Russia . That`s why I have edited my post as well . You have said India does not wanted .Why ? India will not like for economic benefits .Why we think India is friend to Russia .It will not like Pak -Russia ties . We have seen Turkey have developed relations with Iran and Iraq during Iran -Iraq war . So what are the other factors excluding India ?

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Keeping in view the geo-strategic changes, and changes in internatinal policitcs, it is on the surface that rivals are ignoring bitter memories and looking towards the future for better mutual understanding and development. Both China and Russia are keeping vigil eye on the withdrawl strategy of US/NATO forces from Afghanistan. They will defintely oppose and prevent US from keeping her basis after withdrawl. One after another visits of top brasses of Pak-Russia speaks volume of burgeoning mutual understanding and trust between the two countries. This mutual understanding, trust and strategic deals/relations are very important for Pakistan to counter the India-US strategic deals and to maintain stablity in the Region. By virtue of the post cold war scenario, establishment of Consultative Group on Strategic Stability by the two countries, signing of various agreements, Russia's support to pakistan's entry to SCO as an observer, 2007's visit of Russian PM Mikhail Fradkov, her stance on drone attacks in pakistan, her statement on Afghan issue, show indications that Russia is also interested in establishing good relations with Pakistan. Though, Putin's sudden postponement of his visit to pakistan for an indefinite period raised our eye brows, but then immediate visit of Russian Foreign Minister to pakistan after rescheduling his planned visit to india, and Defence Minister's postponement of his planned visit to india to meet General Keyani make us dispel any misperception, though, the real reasons are not known (some says it was under American and India pressuer via Saudi Arabia). OR perhaps the Russian president's visit to pakistan was a covert threat to India to put a brake and muse over her relations with Russia and USA. OR perhaps after the visits of our President, PM and COAS's visit, Russia may have found mismatch of thinking between our civilian and military leadership. However, Russia is now very important actor and may play an important role in any changes in this Region. US's conditinal assistance to pakistan under Indian pressure also makes pakistan to diversify its sources of assistance, and Russia might be one of them. Pakistan, in its relations with USA, is mere a spectator against US policies and demands. It has to have an alternate. It doesnt mean pakistan is going to divorce USA; She cant at least for many coming years. Pakistan, befriending Russia, may exploit all possible opportunities in all areas, and also make Russia play role to resolve Kashmir dispute.

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There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in.

Russia being a key playrer in SCO, wants to normalize the relations with Pakistan owing to following reasons:

1. Pakistan, like Russia, is an immediate neighbor of Afghanistan and would play a vital role is shaping Afghan regime after US withdrawal.
2. Pakistan is in a position (atleast this is what Islamabad believes) negotiate a workable exit strategy for US combatant forces by december 2014. Russia appreciates this influence.
3. During his visit to Russia in May 2011, President Zardari offered sharing of Pakistan's warm sea shores in return to russia's support for Pakistan as a full member of SCO- Russia would take it as an opportunity to extend her markets into Middle East.
4. Russia sees Pakistan's present energy crisis as an opportunity and has expressed interests in TAIP gas pipeline.

5. Although Russian and India has enjoyed longstanding good bilateral relationships but Masco did'nt like the Indo-US energy accords. A leaning towards Pakistan could be a warning signal to New Delhi as well.

6. Last but not the least, Russia understands it very well that the US has her eyes on the energy resources of CA states and in such scenario she need to win even more friends in the region.

Pakistan's win:

1. Pakistan has grasped the notion of new world order and taken few bold decisions regarding her foreign policy.
2. owing to internal destabilization, crippled economy, growing inhouse terrorist activities, has decided to be more socialized in the region, begin bilateral trade to strengthen the drowning economy.
3. Granting Russians the access to gawadar port for export purposes will bring transit fees and thus a handsome revenue for Pakistan.
4. Russians can finance many energy projects to meet the dire need of energy resources for pakistan.

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Jab Apna Qafila Azm o Yaqen Se Niklay Ga
Janhan se Chahen Gay Rasta Wahin Se Nikle Ga

I endorse your points but I have difference with some of your clauses .Why we think diplomatic relations have some ''factor''.If really ,then we should work to gain current position of this ''factor''.If US- India have strengthen their diplomacy then why we think Russia will care for India .

Recent visit of Sergey Lavrov have pointed out Afghan factor .Karzai have debated about faulty policy of NATO ,USA and ISAF. According to him ,they are not targeting real enemy .According to him real enemy is Pakistan .Russia-Pak relations are deeply depended our diplomatic relations with Afganistan.

@WaqasAhmed

you wrongly pointed TAPI construction suits to Russia,it favors IPI which pakistan hav`nt constructed yet .Our relations with Iran is another factor that will develop friendly relationship with Russia .

2.How Russia access to warm waters if one container expenditure from Pak to Russia is 6000 Us dollar ?

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"Wa tu izzu man-ta shaa, wa tu zillu man-ta shaa"

I dont agree with the point that Russian president cancelled his visit to Pakistan under the pressure of Indian lobby in Mascow . Mr. Putin not only cancelled the visit to Pakistan but did the same with his scheduled visits of Turkey and India as well.

Russia is definitely approaching Pakistan and her foreign policy has showed a hint of adaptation to the prevalent geo-political situation of the region.

Russian defence minister cancelled his visit to India in October last year and preferred to stay home to welcome Gen. Kyani.

Russian Foreign Minister Landed ISB. the same day (I guess).

Air Chief had already visited Russia before Kyani.

are some of the indicators which points the future direction of Russian Policy.

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Jab Apna Qafila Azm o Yaqen Se Niklay Ga
Janhan se Chahen Gay Rasta Wahin Se Nikle Ga

pakistan needs to have good relations with russia for many reasons: 1. 2 create parity with india r yo counter india's growing influence in the region. 2. russia is a developed country having rich resources, so being energy deficient country we must have good ties with russia. 3. As many recent development shows USA's inclinations towards india rather pakistan. so v need to move ahead towards other regional powers.

New Dimensions in Pak-Russia Relations

Economic rapprochement forced the political forces of both Pakistan and Russia to focus on economic cooperation.

There are no permanent friends and enemies in international politics because friendship and enmity change in accordance with the states' interests which are of primary importance. This is currently pertinent to Pak- Russian relations. Currently, Pak- Russian relations are in the parameter of friendship and commonality of interests. However, the past relations between two countries were clearly marked as that of enmity and antagonism. Different reasons can be given in this regard; for instance, Pakistan, during cold war, aligned with US and as a consequence Soviet Union developed bilateral cordial relations with India; 1960 U-2 incident, 1970 Pakistan role in rapprochement between US and China, Soviet Union role during Indo-Pak war of 1971 and finally the role played by Pakistan during Afghan Jihad 1979. Throughout the 1980s Pakistan remained a front line state for US proxy war and supported Taliban government in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The shortlived bilateral relations did improve during the tenure of Prime Minister Z. A. Bhutto when Soviet Union in 1974 agreed to establish steel mill in Pakistan. Although different attempts were made by the leaders sitting in Islamabad to improve the bilateral ties with Russia but with no major breakthrough in Pak Russia relations.

The recent visits of top leadership ofz both the countries signal the beginning of a new era of rapprochement, friendship and closeness between the two countries. Russia and Pakistan have range of security, economic and political interests to be safeguarded.

Firstly, In the emergent regional security paradigm in south Asia and surrounding regions, Pakistan holds a pivotal position. Without the support and role of Pakistan, international community cannot resolve the Afghan war, prevent future regional conflicts and ensure any economic development. At this stage political forces of all actors volte-face their strategies, policies and relations. Russian Federation currently wanted to build cordial relations with Pakistan and in 2011, Putin supported Pakistani bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and remarked that Pakistan was a very important partner in South Asia and the Muslim world for Russia. It is expected that during the visit of President Putin in October, Pakistan would simultaneously host quadrilateral meeting of presidents of Russia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. Regional issues including terrorism, extremism, security, trade and economic cooperation will also come under discussion between Pakistan and Russia. Pakistan thus acquires a significant place in foreign policy of Russia.

Secondly, both Russia and Pakistan realised the importance of peace and stability not only for their own citizens but for the people of the region and world at large, which in turn promote economic development and long-term economic interdependence and cooperation, essential for regional stability and prosperity.

Only with political interaction and coordination, the issues related to the said goals can be addressed. Terrorism threat is at the top priority for regional states.
Throughout the 1980s Pakistan remained a front line state for US proxy war and supported Taliban government in Afghanistan 1996 to 2001.
When Pakistan joined “Global War on Terrorism” (GWOT), Russia supported Pakistan on all fronts. It also offered counter-terrorism equipment to Pakistan. Russian military Chief with its counter part in Pakistan discussed the possibility of expanding defence ties by holding joint military exercises, exchanging trainees and trainers and selling and buying weapons. However, not only for Russia but for all the international actors the scenario after withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014 is more important. With NATO forces gone, Russia did not want to repeat the mistakes of 1980s when it and the international community left Afghanistan and power vacuum was filled by Taliban. Also Russia is not in favour of giving US any long-term presence either in Afghanistan or central Asian region. It wanted to preserve its geopolitical dominance and play the Neo Great Game on its own terms and conditions. Russian strategy favours regional actors like China, India, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan to play their role to counter any influence of the US-led west in the region. Out of all these actors Russia knows that Pakistan can play a key role in the Afghan endgame and for safeguarding Russian interests in Afghanistan, south Asia, west Asia, Central Asia and Muslim world.

The rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan can also be seen from the international perspective where Russia does not want US to play the role of sole superpower and is in favour of multi polarity. While improving relations with western Europe, Russia is also reviving its relations with other power centres.



In this scheme, Russia is supporting regional blocs in Middle East, West, south and central Asia and on the road to recovery of relations with those actors who are not in favour of US hegemonic ambitions. Now Russia wanted to sail on the tide of low relations between Washington and Islamabad related to drone attacks, accusation against Pak army and ISI, killing of Osama bin Laden, Salala check post, and issues related to NATO supply lines from Pakistan.

Thirdly, economic rapprochement forced the political forces of both Pakistan and Russia to focus on economic cooperation. Since 2003 Russia economy is growing at the rate of 7% annually, leading natural gas exporter and oil producer with fastest growing economy among G8. The bilateral trade between two countries reached 92 million US dollar in 2003, 411.4 million in 2006, 630 million in 2008 and 400 million in 2009, respectively. Russia is currently financing the mega energy project, CASA-1000, transmitting the power generation from Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan; the Russia has provided 500 million US dollars for the CASA-1000 for the power transmission project. In 2011, both countries initiated the work on the framework in the proposed Free Trade Agreement and currency swap arrangement to boost bilateral trade and further strengthen their economic ties. Both are interested to invest in the projects related to energy, investment, air service and agriculture.
Russian Federation currently wanted to build cordial relations with Pakistan and in 2011, Putin supported Pakistani bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and remarked that Pakistan was a very important partner in South Asia and the Muslim world for Russia.
These bilateral economic relations were further improved with focus on economic cooperation through increased market access to Pakistani products in Russia and building connectivity in trade and energy sectors will benefit both the countries. Realising the changed economic-cum- geostrategic and political scenarios, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited Moscow and emphasised for forgetting the past and arranging for the present to face the future. The future prosperity of the region lay in cooperation and coordination based on equality and mutual respect.



However, there are also irritant factors between the two states like nuclear proliferation, safe havens for the extremists groups in Pakistan and Russia's tilt towards India. In the current global and regional situation, it can be said that new era of Pak-Russia relations has commenced and the position and interests of Pakistan and Russia congregate. Russia wanted to achieve its regional- cum-global goals and for Pakistan it's the way forward towards economic gains, support for counter terrorism efforts, Baluchistan issue and respectable position at regional and international level.

The present century is known as century of Asia. Russia or matter of fact none of the major world powers can ignore Asia. It must be acknowledged that prospects of Pak-Russian relations should be assessed in the light of Russia's regional and international compulsions and and framework. As far as Pakistan is concerned, it must avail the opportunities knocking at its doorstep and must not repeat the past mistakes. Russia can be an important source of energy resources, defense supplies, counter terrorism equipments, technologies and economic development. Islamabad has to give Russia important place in the foreign policy of Pakistan.

Dr Saima Ashraf Kayani

Russia will definitely care for India. They enjoy a history of good relations. Despite having strategic alliance with the USA, India still have good miltary, political, diplomatic relations with Russia. It will be difficult for India to digest that her time tested old beloved also starts flirting with her old time tested greatest enemy (Pakistan). It will be quite more than awkward if Russia all of a sudden severs its relations with India on the pretext of its developing relations with the USA. Nor can Pakistan do without the USA, as Russia is not, at present, in a position to offer pakistan required aid and defence/military support. Yes, at this stage, the epicentre appears to be Afghan factor. In fact, its Afghan factor that is paving a way for profound pak-Russia relations, as Pakistan and Russia both are wary of the USA and its policies in Afghan end game.
The USA will use all its means to stop Pakistan getting closer to Russia at this critinal moment of Afghan war. For the USA, Russia may offset the pressures that America has maintained/ratcheted up on Pakistan. There are elements that indicate that India might be an American proxy in Afghanistan, as possible American military bases in Afghanistan after its withdrawl, may provide her a handsome strength. Here a statement of Russian President's special envoy for Afghanistan Mr.Zamir Kabulov is important: "Our own experience in the past and the track record of others in recent years has taught us that the problem of Afghanistan cannot be resolved without the constructive involvement of Pakitan and Iran." Russia has made several attempts for insertion of the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a security provider for Afghanistan, but America has not accepted it so far. What to say of Karzai's statement. He has not been consistent in his views about Pakistan. However, it appears that he is inclining toward India in Afghan end game upon which, Pakistan has its serious reservations.

It is possible that Russian President might have cancelled his visit to Pakistan on USA+India pressure, and cancellation of all scheduled visits might have been a planned decision to dispel the immediately emanating doubts/misconceptions about the cancellatinon of the president's visit to Pakistan. His visit was definitely to attend the quadrilateral summit, but he was to extensively engage with Pakistani leadership on Afghan issue and formalizing reset in Pak-Russia relations.

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There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in.