The roots of terrorism

Waqar Afzal · #1 Monday, March 18, 2013

Gentlemen and ladies this is a thought provoking article published in Dawn News...

Quote:

By Sultan Mehmood

A CURSORY analysis of the START Global Terrorism Database reveals that over the past decade, Pakistan has had the highest number of terrorism-related deaths in the world.

In fact, the death toll exceeds the combined terrorism-related deaths for both Europe and North America. Hence, an understanding of terrorism, its dynamics, its causes, the reasons for its escalation and de-escalation is of utmost importance to Pakistan.

Unfortunately, policymakers, academics and politicians in Pakistan increasingly rely on speculation and their intuition alone to deal with this menace. The purpose of this article is to dispel the myth that reforms in education and economic growth alone will bring down terrorism levels.

Most certainly, education and growth policies should be pursued in their own right, but to expect that these policies will reduce terrorism is based on pure conjecture. A myriad of studies go against the “conventional wisdom” view of terrorism. The story goes that it is those poor, young, illiterate and brainwashed teens who have nothing to live for that turn to terrorism. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.

Linking unemployment with crime and explaining optimal punishment designs had won Gary Becker the Nobel Prize in economics. He showed that criminals “rationally” decide to perpetrate crimes given the probability of getting caught and the severity of possible punishment. He further found that high unemployment and poverty rates are related closely to higher crime rates.

Hence, in a study of terrorism it was natural to study whether a high degree of impoverishment increased terrorism levels. This belief was shared by world leaders and top academics. For example, former US president George Bush argued: “We fight against poverty because hope is an answer to terror.”

Similarly, Jessica Stern of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government notes: “(The United States) can no longer afford to allow states to fail … new Osamas will continue to rise.” These views were shared by others such as Bill Clinton, King Abdullah of Jordan, the archbishop of Canterbury and Tony Blair.

Nevertheless, to the frustration of many academics, the simple positive relationship between poverty and (material) crime could not be extrapolated to a positive structural relationship between poverty and terrorism.

Not a single study could make a cogent case that terrorism had economic roots. This lack of evidence culminated in a recent review of the literature by Martin Gassebner and Simon Luechinger of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

The authors estimated 13.4 million different equations, drew on 43 different studies and 65 correlates of terrorism to conclude that higher levels of poverty and illiteracy are not associated with greater terrorism. In fact, only the lack of civil liberties and high population growth could predict high terrorism levels accurately.

So does this relation also hold for Pakistan? It appears so. Christine Fair from Georgetown University documents a similar phenomenon for Pakistan. By utilising data on 141 killed militants, she finds that militants in Pakistan are recruited from middle-class and well-educated families. This is further corroborated by Graeme Blair and others at Princeton University.

They too find evidence of a higher support base of terrorism from those who are relatively wealthy in Pakistan. In a robust survey of 6,000 individuals across Pakistan, it is found that the poor are actually 23 times more averse to extremist violence relative to middle-class citizens.

My own work too comes to a similar conclusion. Exploiting the econometric concept of Granger causality and drawing on data from 1973-2010 in Pakistan, I document a one-way causality running from terrorism to GDP, investments and exports.

The results indicated that higher incidence of terrorism reduced GDP, investments and exports. However, higher GDP, exports and investment did not reduce terrorism.
The bottom line: when the economy was not doing well, terrorism did not increase and vice versa.

In the present context the Granger causality test ascertains what consistently happens first i.e. do high incomes reduce terrorism in the future rather than higher terrorism reducing incomes in the future and vice versa?

Alan Krueger from Princeton University seems to have an explanation for this “counter-intuitive” phenomenon. After analysing extensive micro- and macro-level data, he too concludes that in fact terrorists are relatively more educated and are recruited from wealthier families.

But he observes another pattern in data: a systematic relationship between political oppression and higher incidence of terrorism.

He relates terrorism to voting behaviour and concludes that terrorism is a “political, not an economic phenomenon”. He defends his results by arguing at length that political involvement requires some understanding of the issues and learning about those issues is a less costly endeavour for those who are better educated.

Just as the more educated are more likely to vote, similarly they are more likely to politically express themselves through terrorism. Hence, political oppression drives people towards terrorism.

To understand what causes terrorism, one need not ask how much of a population is illiterate or in abject poverty. Rather one should ask who holds strong enough political views to impose them through terrorism.

It is not that most terrorists have nothing to live for. Far from it, they are the high-ability and educated political people who so vehemently believe in a cause that they are willing to die for it. The solution to terrorism is not more growth but more freedom.
The writer is an advisor to the Dutch government on macroeconomic policy. His research interests include dynamics of terrorism.

I thought this topic requires further discussion and exploration,So share your thoughts about reasons of terrorism..This will help us in current affairs and possibly in essay as well..

tazimchaudhary · #2 Monday, March 18, 2013

If poverty and illiteracy are not the main cause than what is the factor that induce the young people to die while committing suicide bombing? If we rationally think people do some thing for getting reward.Either here or hereafter.
On the other hand yes i do agree the brain washing has nothing to do with literacy or illiteracy but it is related to level of maturity of a particular issue.As we are not enough mature on the religious issues due to lot of reasons, so any one of us could be come the victim of evil forces irrespective of education.

Farah Zaidi · #3 Monday, March 18, 2013

i disagree with the point that most of the terrorist belong to well-educated families..i think in Pakistan it is a short cut to earn a good to medium living standard for a family...

only the point of brainwashing doesn't relate to educational background because when one is unaware of the true spirit of Islam will be more likely to be victimized...

Farhad Aslam · #4 Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Most ambiguous term of this decade is Terrorism; having diverse delineation around the globe. For some it can be a fight for rights and some fight it for rights. Debate on theoretical study approach of terrorism can be a topic for those who want to send a literary masterpiece to market for the sake of best-seller’s tag but for those who suffer something like this it need practical approach. For Pakistan the suitable definition can be borrowed from Vice-President’s Task Force’s 1986′s statement that terrorism is the unlawful use or threat of violence against persons or property to further political or social objectives. It is usually intended to intimidate or coerce a government, individuals or groups, or to modify their behavior or politics. Yet it can not be defined in terms of words as it purely relies on intentions and causes hence it should have the same way to analyze and cure this social pathogen.
When society comes out of box it compels others to pay attention towards it; terrorism has the same line of action but the fact is that there is no terrorism in Pakistan it is a reactionary wave of demands somehow reasonable and somehow lame that is called terrorism in Pakistan. Till the day some “book-maker” gives it a new nomenclature let’s use the same name for situation in Pakistan. Pakistan unfortunately faces two types of terrorism one is based on psychological grounds and other one is motivated by ideological demands but we are yet to understand the dichotomy between these two completely different salmonellae. We are unable to differentiate between the misguided, pauperized people in FATA and well-equipped masked Trojan horses of Jamia-Hafza in Islamabad. We go after both of these in same attitude with same slogan despite the fact that these need different treatments. Former one is a result of desperation added with fuel of ignorance while latter one is a systematic wave for ideological objectives. Both these may have external hands on there back and shoulder respectively but their personal goals are totally different. We need to address their demands not their goals since by meeting or treating their demands we can change their goals according to our national interest.
Talking about social and psychological demands of violent people its not hard to detect the fault-line, we can not persecute a person for doing wrong if we have not told him what is wrong and what is right. We can not ask the question of patriotism from those whom we have never taught the lesson of patriotism we can not expect the good from those with whom we have never done so. So instead of going hard on those we must access them and make them aware of what they should do and let them do what they need to do.
The real test of decision making and implementation is held when treating the other type of demands which is completely ideological with zero-tolerance on their part but here again it is not a fantasy ideology—- neither are those people iron made deaf robots that they can not get input signals if given in proper frequency ranging in their bandwidth. Time is gone when malfunctioning were resolved by hardware troubleshooting like hardware replacement or detachments now self programmed software systems are enough to remove any malicious insurgent.

aaliabbas · #5 Tuesday, March 19, 2013

It was definitely an interesting article. I partially agree with the writer's point of view. My limited reading and knowledge on the subject concludes it to be an ideological war. It is not just breeding on poverty and unemployment but has strong ideological basis. A person motivated by its belief on a certain ideology can definitely go at any length to ensure its success. Hence not only the poors and unemployed but middle-class and educated people too have sympethies for such elements and can be a party to it. I believe that only force and our conventional politics will not be successful in curing this cancer in any time soon. It had to be fought back on ideological basis with politics being a strong tool to it.

P.S: As am a newbie, freshly started my preparation. Any constructive criticism is highly appreciated.

Waqar Afzal · #6 Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farhad Aslam

Most ambiguous term of this decade is Terrorism; having diverse delineation around the globe. For some it can be a fight for rights and some fight it for rights. Debate on theoretical study approach of terrorism can be a topic for those who want to send a literary masterpiece to market for the sake of best-seller’s tag but for those who suffer something like this it need practical approach. For Pakistan the suitable definition can be borrowed from Vice-President’s Task Force’s 1986′s statement that terrorism is the unlawful use or threat of violence against persons or property to further political or social objectives. It is usually intended to intimidate or coerce a government, individuals or groups, or to modify their behavior or politics. Yet it can not be defined in terms of words as it purely relies on intentions and causes hence it should have the same way to analyze and cure this social pathogen.
When society comes out of box it compels others to pay attention towards it; terrorism has the same line of action but the fact is that there is no terrorism in Pakistan it is a reactionary wave of demands somehow reasonable and somehow lame that is called terrorism in Pakistan. Till the day some “book-maker” gives it a new nomenclature let’s use the same name for situation in Pakistan. Pakistan unfortunately faces two types of terrorism one is based on psychological grounds and other one is motivated by ideological demands but we are yet to understand the dichotomy between these two completely different salmonellae. We are unable to differentiate between the misguided, pauperized people in FATA and well-equipped masked Trojan horses of Jamia-Hafza in Islamabad. We go after both of these in same attitude with same slogan despite the fact that these need different treatments. Former one is a result of desperation added with fuel of ignorance while latter one is a systematic wave for ideological objectives. Both these may have external hands on there back and shoulder respectively but their personal goals are totally different. We need to address their demands not their goals since by meeting or treating their demands we can change their goals according to our national interest.
Talking about social and psychological demands of violent people its not hard to detect the fault-line, we can not persecute a person for doing wrong if we have not told him what is wrong and what is right. We can not ask the question of patriotism from those whom we have never taught the lesson of patriotism we can not expect the good from those with whom we have never done so. So instead of going hard on those we must access them and make them aware of what they should do and let them do what they need to do.
The real test of decision making and implementation is held when treating the other type of demands which is completely ideological with zero-tolerance on their part but here again it is not a fantasy ideology—- neither are those people iron made deaf robots that they can not get input signals if given in proper frequency ranging in their bandwidth. Time is gone when malfunctioning were resolved by hardware troubleshooting like hardware replacement or detachments now self programmed software systems are enough to remove any malicious insurgent.

Reaction to what?...Afghan war?..American presence and interference..?Non existance of caliphate system in Pakistan...?Interest based banking system...?Judiciary system..?barber shops...?.....
What are exactly their demands..? And how these demands are reasonable and possible to be fulfilled? and is it possible to inplement their self interepted style of Islamic/shariah rule?

I mean what can be achieved and what can be surrendered to them ,in order to maintain peace and stop war against state...?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farah Zaidi

i disagree with the point that most of the terrorist belong to well-educated families..i think in Pakistan it is a short cut to earn a good to medium living standard for a family...

only the point of brainwashing doesn't relate to educational background because when one is unaware of the true spirit of Islam will be more likely to be victimized...

Exactly!!does not it refer to ideological aspect?

The children used in suicide attacks are mostly poor and uneducated or poorly educated...but i do not think that the higher hierarchy has a poverty or illeteracy issue...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fizaamjad

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Farhad Aslam · #7 Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by Waqar Afzal

Reaction to what?...Afghan war?..American presence and interference..?Non existance of caliphate system in Pakistan...?Interest based banking system...?Judiciary system..?barber shops...?.....
What are exactly their demands..? And how these demands are reasonable and possible to be fulfilled? and is it possible to inplement their self interepted style of Islamic/shariah rule?

I mean what can be achieved and what can be surrendered to them ,in order to maintain peace and stop war against state...?

Major section of Pakistani public is not bothered about ideas like Afghan War, America and system of governance and economics; their thinking and demands have been curtailed to mere "Roti, Kapra aur Makan". As I have already mentioned that in Pakistan there are two fronts of insurrections, first one is in vogue and is resulted by persistent deprivation of basic rights, second one is a class of ideological pathogens. Rights never mean what a person wants but what he needs, so we must try to understand the real cause of problem instead of palliative care. Employ people to make them realize the worth of their life, make them feel the importance of nation state. Just consider the example of a weeping baby; he is not always given what he wants but is noise is listened instead of being heard. Let's transform a vulnerable society into a venerable society by using right approach and attitude.

For other type of insurgents, our modus operandi should be different, but forming an escalatory spiral will never help the cause. For nation building the terms like surrender need to be rephrased and redefined. We are never supposed to lose our system to any group but we need to make our system more acceptable for our public.

Waqar Afzal · #8 Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farhad Aslam

Major section of Pakistani public is not bothered about ideas like Afghan War, America and system of governance and economics; their thinking and demands have been curtailed to mere "Roti, Kapra aur Makan". As I have already mentioned that in Pakistan there are two fronts of insurrections, first one is in vogue and is resulted by persistent deprivation of basic rights, second one is a class of ideological pathogens. Rights never mean what a person wants but what he needs, so we must try to understand the real cause of problem instead of palliative care. Employ people to make them realize the worth of their life, make them feel the importance of nation state. Just consider the example of a weeping baby; he is not always given what he wants but is noise is listened instead of being heard. Let's transform a vulnerable society into a venerable society by using right approach and attitude.

For other type of insurgents, our modus operandi should be different, but forming an escalatory spiral will never help the cause. For nation building the terms like surrender need to be rephrased and redefined. We are never supposed to lose our system to any group but we need to make our system more acceptable for our public.

Major portion of Pakistanis is not insurgents...But the issue here are those people who are called TTP ....How to negotiate with these people and with what objectives as they (TTP) do not believe in this democratic system and elections,they do not believe in this economic,banking system,judiciary and even do not approve this life style of an common individual....Their ideas and purposes are totally radical...

I am not arguing at all that discussion should not be held,but i am only trying to develop a constructive discussion here....

Do you see any meaning and results of talks with TTP type radicals?

@

Moderators

Kindly correct the spellings of interpreted,i made a mistake in above post no. 8 while typing this word...

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tazimchaudhary (Monday, March 18, 2013)