“We had a very extensive and... a very productive and constructive dialogue... But we have all agreed that results are what will tell the story, not statements at a press conference. We will under promise, but deliver.”

These were the wordings of US Secretary of State John Kerry, after the a tri-partite meeting at Brussels between him, Afghan President Hamid Karazai, and Pakistani Army Chief, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani on April 24, 2013. The meeting hosted by John Kerry was aimed at synchronization between US, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indeed, the security issues and “the road forward heading towards 2014, a critical transformational period” were discussed between three countries. No joint statement, a joint press conference or any document made public after the meeting.

With the rapidly approaching drawdown date (Dec 2014), President Karazai and his allies are skeptical about their future. Karazai is neither trusted by Taliban nor his Northern Alliance friends. Owing to his dubious personality, he is neither liked nor trusted by his American friends. There are multiple challenges being faced by Afghanistan in particular and the region in general.
Currently, there are two types of the challenges, posed by the US withdrawal: domestic and regional Challenges. Among the Domestic Challenges, instability within Afghanistan is the foremost challenge threatening the region following the US pull out or US opting for itself a role behind the scene. The domestic instability may leads to dissolution of central authority in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, there is neither a political nor a religious personality in Afghanistan who can unite and is acceptable to all factions and groups there. Neither Karazai nor Mullah Omar has the charismatic potentials to unite the Afghan at one platform. In the absence of any negotiated settlement, there are all the chances that central Government at Kabul may quickly evaporate, giving way to return of civil war, where each group would try to secure for itself the lion’s share.

According to a report by International Crisis Group (ICG), “There is a real risk that the regime in Kabul could collapse upon NATO's withdrawal. The window for remedial action is closing fast. The Afghan army and police are overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition.” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, anticipate that, “After 2014, the level of US support for the Afghan regime will be limited and, after a new phase in the civil war, a Taliban victory will likely to follow." Then there is a rivalry within Afghan security institutions, primarily motivated by factional and ethnic factors. What is of greater concern is increasing politicization of security institutions, and attempts to use them for domestic political agendas of staying in the power? Then the Taliban threat, the most dominant and animated remains the real one. Under the combat power of Taliban, there is all the likelihood that the non-representative ANSF can face a quick fragmentation.

Alongside security transition to ANSF sequel to NATO pullout, political transition in 2014 is most important. Despite pledges of President Karzai, for a legitimate transfer of power, opposition groups have serious reservations.
With a frustrated Karazai, United States, international community and Afghan neighbours would be in doldrums under such a scenario. Domestically, over the years, NATO has established a parallel force mechanism in the form of new militias, local armed groups like; Afghan Local Police (ALP) and other mushroom organizations to control Taliban insurgency. In the post NATO pullout, these organizations may become a nuisance for their opponents in a future scenario.

Among the regional challenges, the Afghan neighbours, somehow have been backing their favourites, are likely to push forward their proxies - in case the Kabul government shows signs of weakness. Indeed, all Afghan neighbours would like to secure their interests, thus paving way for an infringement. Russia supported U.S and NATO in Afghanistan to fight out militancy in its Muslim majority republics; Chechnya and Dagestan. Russia fears that, Taliban return would radicalize Central Asia, North Caucasus and its Muslim republics.
China would like to secure guarantees from the future Afghan setup for not supporting East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in its autonomous region, Xinjiang. Then, this rising power has heavily invested in the mining and mineral sectors of Afghanistan. Besides having a geographical contiguity with Afghan, China has both geo-economic and geopolitical interests in Afghanistan. All Central Asian neighbours of Afghanistan would like to secure their interests. Nevertheless, all would be interested for a peace in Afghanistan, but none is interested for the return of Taliban.

Without having, a geographical contiguity, India created for itself sufficient space in Afghanistan in the garb of reconstruction. Indeed, it is very cleverly pursuing its policy, giving peanuts to Afghans in return for strong foothold in that country. India has been able to secure rights to mine Afghanistan’s prime iron ore reserves of biggest iron deposit; Hajigak, besides many other areas. It has a strategic pact with Afghanistan, with the key role of training of ANSF and intelligence services. Pakistan has its reservations of Afghan troops being trained by the Indian military. Training of military means, they would adopt their ideology, mindset and thinking. Indian presence in Afghanistan has always been a source of concern for Pakistan. In the guise of reconstruction, India is using Afghan soil against Pakistan. India is providing training and funding to anti-Pakistan elements from Balochistan and all along western border. Indian consulates are working as a base to create subversion inside Pakistan.

Pakistan sees the region in transition as both an opportunity and a risk in both; short and long-term perspective. The outcome of this transition will largely depend upon the strategic decisions taken today in favour of peace and stability. Pakistan finds itself at the centre of debate and desires to carve a region where regional interests converge and stability thrives thereby creating a space for economic growth and prosperity long desired by the people of the region, especially Afghanistan. In this context, Pakistan sees its relationship with U.S and Afghanistan as critical for redrawing the contours of regional security environment that is conducive for ending the longest conflict in recent history. Pakistan strongly feels, “If Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly we have our strategic depth because our western border is secured … You’re not looking both ways.” By this very concept, Pakistan does not pursue the policy of controlling Afghanistan, but facilitating in the establishment of peace there.

At the conclusion of the Brussels’ meeting the US Secretary of State said that, “I think that everybody here agreed today that we will continue a very specific dialogue on both the political track as well as the security track. He also said that, “We have a commitment to do that in the interests of Afghanistan, Pakistan and peace in the region.” On its part, “Pakistan remains committed to continue its positive and constructive role towards a durable peace in Afghanistan. “Pakistan is convinced that a peaceful, stable, prosperous and united Afghanistan is in the interest of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region.” In the wordings of Mr Jalil Abbas Jilani, the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, “We are looking forward to a very productive and forward-looking discussion.” Let us hope that, President Karazai reconcile and start thinking for the future of Afghanistan, rather for his own future only.

The writer is Islamabad based analyst of international relations.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

In the era following the 9/11 attacks, the United States is continuously monitoring Afghanistan and its activities in the South Asian region. The U.S. and its allied forces attacked the forsaken land in October of 2001 and since then have kept its supremacy over Kabul. Since 2002, President Hamid Karzai’s regime has established and strengthened bilateral diplomatic relations between Kabul and Washington.

Instability has become synonymous with Afghanistan although the country is an alley of the West, particularly the U.S. in the war against terror. Bomb blasts echoing in the mountains of Kandahar and killing innocent civilians and government officials are a routine.

However, Afghanistan has seen some stability under President Karzai’s tenure even in the wake of the ongoing Green on Blue Attacks. These attacks going on between the Green, and the Afghanistan’s national security apparatus, with the Blue, or the NATO troops are expected to send the country into a downward spiral.

President Karzai has done a commendable job in bridging U.S.-Afghan relations at a time when the South Asian region considered Afghanistan an imminent threat.

Even with Afghanistan making efforts to curb the Taliban threat, the International Crisis Group (ICG), an independent, non-profit organization believes that it would be a challenge for Afghanistan to exist beyond 2014. In December 2014, the U.S.-led NATO troops will leave the country and the national security issues will fall in the hands of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP). The ICG believes that the country might seize to exist because its national security forces cannot handle Afghanistan’s internal conflicts.

Washington has opposing strategies regarding the 2014 withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. Although President Barack Obama has announced the ‘Zero Option’ strategy, whereby the U.S. will leave no residual force behind to oversee the transition process, the U.S. Commander in Afghanistan, General Joseph F. Dunford thinks otherwise. Recently, General Dunford suggested that the U.S. and its allies should leave some troops in Afghanistan after 2014 because of the growing uncertainty in the country, which is also affecting the region.

During the Senate Armed Services Committee meeting, General Dunford said that, “Many Afghans have told me they no longer fear the Taliban as much as they fear what will happen after 2014. There is a growing sense that December 2014 is a cliff for the Afghan people.” Leaving a residual force in Afghanistan will assist the ANA and ANP in maintaining law and order in the country, which could face a civil war in the post-2014 era if Afghanistan does not take effective security measures.

If the U.S. troop’s withdrawal of 2014 is making Washington nervous over Kabul’s future, then Afghanistan’s elections of 2014 are another reason why the political future of the country remains unsteady. President Karzai has seen two consecutive terms and Afghanistan’s constitution will not allow him to run for a third time.

During his visit to Washington earlier this year, President Karzai announced that he would step down in 2014. A new government, therefore, will, lead Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond, which would face a tough time dealing with the country’s internal security affairs.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops and a new Afghan government might spell disaster for the country. The incoming president would need to maintain law and order in the country, keep extremist factions at bay, train the ANA and the ANP, maintain positive relations with the U.S. and create effective foreign policies towards neighboring South Asian countries specially Pakistan and India. Moreover, Afghanistan would also need to maintain diplomatic relations with China, which is investing heavily in Afghanistan.

It seems that China and India are eyeing Afghanistan as a viable investment destination as both countries are financing in Afghanistan’s rehabilitation and rebuilding process.

India has signed various agreements with Afghanistan and has pledged nearly $2 billion in assistance. New Delhi signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Kabul in 2011, providing India with the opportunity to rebuild Afghanistan.
With India investing in Afghanistan, India would cram Pakistan from both sides, which would take away all of Pakistan’s strategic depth against India.

In addition, Pakistan’s alley, China, secured a bid worth $3.5 billion where its mining companies will develop Afghanistan’s Aynak copper field, which is believed to be the largest in the world, containing nearly $88 billion worth of copper reserves.

The era beyond 2014 will bring change in Afghanistan’s political, social, and economic setup. The U.S.-Afghan relations will take a fresh approach as the troops leave the country. However, Afghanistan will remain a critical geographic location in South Asia where India, China, Pakistan, and the U.S. will remain watchful over Afghanistan’s actions.

(The writer is a regular columnist for various English dailies and writes on regional issues)

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/