The flawed politician

By Nadir Hassan
Published: March 8, 2013

was never a subtle politician so it is unsurprising that the reaction surrounding his death has been so stark. For most commentators, he was either the voice of the poor and downtrodden, a socialist committed to empowering the disenfranchised and opposing worldwide imperialism or a coup leader with totalitarian instincts, who was instinctively drawn to other despots. Both interpretations of Chavez have the benefit of being factually correct but the drawback of being incomplete. Which side you fall on depends on ideology but any intellectually honest assessment of the man would acknowledge his opposing instincts.

This is not a problem that can solely be attributed to Chavez’s charisma (or his tendency to annoy, for those who are firmly in the anti-Chavez camp). All politicians, no matter how dull or grey they may be, tend to inspire extreme emotions in their supporters and opponents. This is to be expected of party members whose political power is dependent on fealty to the leader but needs to be avoided by journalists and analysts, for whom nuance and fairness should trump ideological considerations.

In Pakistan, as election season approaches, we will see this phenomenon — already so prevalent in our politics — magnify. The two worst offenders in this regard are supporters of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The PPP’s fans have regularly come down with a bad case of idolatry. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, we are told by the jiyalas, is a man who led the first and only mass movement in the country’s history and ultimately fell victim to a military conspiracy. All this is certainly true but Bhutto also had dictatorial tendencies which, like Chavez, extended to jailing many who opposed him, passed the constitutional amendment that declared Ahmadis non-Muslims and was as bad on Balochistan as the army has ever been. None of these criticisms are meant to ignore Bhutto’s achievements but they are necessary to separate the myth from the fallible politician. The beatification of his daughter Benazir is similar in its adamant refusal to accept that she, too, was an immensely flawed politician.

The case of Imran Khan and the PTI is even more curious. Since he and his party have never actually been in power, they are a blank slate on which anything can be drawn. Once the politician has been cast as saviour, it gives his or her supporters carte blanche to mock and vilify those who dissent. Fans of the PTI have turned this into an art form. Simply saying that Imran Khan has some interesting ideas coupled with a lot of naïve ones is enough for one to be denounced as a sell-out (whom we are selling out to is never mentioned).

We need to reconceive how we see politicians. There is no one person so perfect that with the wave of a wand, all our problems will be wished away. Voting is an act of compromise; we should choose the candidate or party with whom we most agree or, as is often the case in Pakistan, disagree with the least and then hold our noses and cast our ballot. Politicians owe their careers to many different interests and will need to cater to other interests in order to stay in power. This necessarily makes them easy targets for criticism from their opponents while being used as excuses by their supporters. That is how politics works but we in the media should not be playing the same game.
It is time we stop acting like politicians are cartoon characters in a superhero comic book, who exist only to be deified or villainised. Advancing your own agenda and sacrificing complexity has never served anyone well.

Published in The Express Tribune

By:Hashim bin Rashid Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013

Hugo Chavez is dead. But his spirit still lives. In the eulogies to the great Bolivarian socialist, in the commitment to continue his task, in the cries of millions of people who have declared: ‘We are Chavez’, the promise is that his legacy shall be kept alive.

Most famous for his blunt speeches at the United Nations General Assembly, especially his famous declaration when asked to speak after United States President Geogre W Bush, “The devil just left the building and it still smells of sulphur”, Chavez was the most blunt critic of the US imperialism and spoke out against the Afghan and Iraq wars at every forum. A true internationalist, he became the fountainhead of the revival of the Latin American block, and tried to expand it to a block of the Global South – much like the Non-Aligned Movement of the 1960s and 70s. This included a proposal to create a Bank of the South proposal and an alternate to the toothless UN.

But his most cherished legacy shall remain how he reinvigorated the dream of socialism – “each shall get according to his needs”, rescuing it from its so-called death in the 20thcentury and pushing it into the 21st century. That Chavez died young, he was only 58, and will be unlike the ailing – but still witty and intelligent – Fidel Castro shall perhaps add to his mystique and splendour. He died at the peak of his popularity, at a time when the unity he provided was needed most, but perhaps, if the Bolivarian revolution he inspired is to continue beyond him, he died at the right time. His cult of personality having enamoured the oppressed of the world, it was time that the oppressed take the legacy and make it their own.

Born to impoverished parents, Chavez joined the Venezuelan army, only to be disgusted by how it was an instrument to protect a corrupt ruling class. In 1992, Chavez attempted a failed coup and was jailed. In 1998, released from jail, he contested the elections and with 56 percent voting for him, he became president. By 1999, Chavez started a radical programme of redistributing the country’s wealth and initiated the drafting up of a new constitution – one that can allow a break from the contours of the bourgeois state. In 2000, he contested the elections again – putting his popularity and the new constitution to the test – and won again. The programme – based on nationalising the oil wealth, creating workers collectives, increasing social spending – did not go down well with the wealth owning classes of Venezuela and the US, whose stakes in the Venezuelan oil were taken away. A coup against him was attempted. Deposed for two-days, Chavez was brought back into power by what could be described as a people’s counter coup. Comandante Chavez returned with more zeal and began to change the contours of the Venezuelan state – relabelled the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to cherish the legacy of 19th century Latin American revolutionary Simon de Bolivar. He began to restructure the most important pillars of the state and society, including the media, military, ruling class, the economy and the state itself.

Chavez asked a simple question: why was 85 percent of the population of the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter poor? Chavez provided the answer. Radically shifting government spending priorities to providing employment, healthcare and schooling: household poverty fell to26.4 percent by 2009 while unemployment fell from 15 percent to 7.8 percent. This was as the rest of the world’s economy was going into crisis, the US and Europe faced unemployment and state debts, and the neoliberal economic experts that had pillaged Latin America in the 1980s and 90s continued to declare: Venezuela’s bubble will burst.

An avowed democrat: Chavez won 56 percent of the vote in 1998, 60 percent in 2000, survived a coup in 2002, got over seven million votes in 2006 and secured 54.4 percent of the vote in October 2012. The US and Europe continued to gaze a skeptical glance at how a Marxist leader could continue holding and winning elections. How could he continue to sway the population and extend his influence across the globe? ‘Elections are rigged, political opponents are targeted, media is silenced,’ is what the Western powers said.

Pakistan has experienced a somewhat similar period in its history: the policies and slogans of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto still have a deep resonance with the toiling classes. The attempt to nationalise industries in the Bhutto period was overturned by a US-backed right wing movement and the Zia military coup. If the liberals remember the late Gen Zia for ratcheting up religious fundamentalism, the left remembers him for de-nationalising industries and spurring on the wealth divide once again. But Bhutto was different: he alienated people, he strengthened the strong arm of the state, he found allies within the existing land-owning classes – and by the time he was deposed, there was no mass agitation to bring him back.

When the 2002 coup against Chavez was completed, the head of Venezuela's largest business association was declared the leader of a transitional government. The coup showed the clear connection between business interests and the military – something Venezuela shares with Pakistan. The difference was that the revolution in Venezuela had deeper roots – the redistribution of wealth, the feeling of being a part of government, was real and felt at the grassroots. Chavez’s popular weekly programme, ‘Hello, Mr President,’ where people would be able to call in – for eight-hours or more at a stretch – to speak to the president and cabinet ministers to speak about their problems, democratised the centre of governance and made it more transparent. The programme was radical: the processes at the top-tier governance became open to public scrutiny – something the most cherished first world ‘democracies’ cannot claim.

The questions over media independence need to be answered by giving some local context. While Chavez maintained that media independence is a valuable aim, the lack of independence in corporate media is very easy to observe. The fact that each newspaper blocks out news stories that are against the corporate and political interests that back it is ignored – partly because the media is the one valourising itself. For example, one of the newspapers I have worked for shot down a story of last week’s sit-in for the rights of janitors at the LUMS, another has taken a week to get the same story ‘approved’. The fear is that the big barons at LUMS’ board of directors would ‘mind’. Is such so-called ‘media freedom’ worth treasuring?

There can be genuine criticisms of Chavez, but the fact that he stifled the corporate media is not one. The documentary, The Revolution will not be televised, traced how the Venezuelan media was complicit in the coup against him to great depth.

It is Chavez that has showed for the new generations that socialism can thrive, that the future of the world need not be determined by naked capitalist exploitation. A friend posted on Facebook: “After the breakup of the USSR, when Lenin seemed old-fashioned, Mao's China turned capitalist and Fidel's Cuba barely hung-on, it was Chavez's Venezuela that put socialism back onto the world stage.”

If ever there is a revolution in Pakistan – big business families would have to cede their business interests and become equals to the working class. All the existing political parties would oppose such an endeavour, as it would go against their class interests. The military would also join in as soon as the eye is cast on its humongous business interests. Anyone desiring a revolution in Pakistan would have to take all three head on: political parties, the military and the media. Chavez has shown that it can be done.

The question is: who will be our Chavez?

The writer is the general secretary

(Lahore) of the Awami Workers Party. He is a journalist and a researcher. Contact: hashimbrashid@gmail.com

www.pakistantoday.com.pk

By: Azam Khalil | March 08, 2013

“A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice.”
– Thomas Paine

The politicians have finally matured in Pakistan; they seem determined and united to protect democracy. Further, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, has expressed the army’s resolve to support the democratic process and transfer of power through impartial elections. The superior judiciary, too, has warned against any adventurism that may upset the applecart. Despite all this, there are a few people who believe that the polls will be delayed. To prove their point, nevertheless, they have history on their side.

Anyway, there are some signs on the horizon, which indicate that the candles are being burnt at both ends by those who don’t want the people’s will to prevail. Besides, several opinion polls conducted by legitimate organisations have added fuel to the fire because they do not represent the ground realities existing in the country.

The PPP-led coalition government, for instance, is well aware that it has failed to deal with some of the challenges it inherited after the 2008 elections and that nothing substantial could be achieved for the poor. Yet, it can credit itself for initiating major reforms in the system that will go a long way in helping democracy thrive and ushering in an era where it will become extremely difficult for the anti-state elements to conspire to overthrow a democratically-elected government.

According to reports, “the PML-N and JUI-F have stepped up efforts to manoeuvre political space by nominating their respective candidates for election to the powerful office of country’s next chief executive.” This has set alarm bells ringing among those who are genuinely concerned not only about Pakistan’s security, but also political and economy initiatives that could impact its strategic interests.

It would, therefore, be prudent for the politicians to reach a consensus on the issue of the caretaker setup as quickly as possible because prolonging it will lead to unforeseen consequences.

Here it can be mentioned with certainty that some of the names have already been finalised for the new cabinet. It is expected that a highly skilled team of technocrats would be assigned the task of conducting impartial elections and running the affairs of the state.

This may sound very simple, but it is very difficult. The way people are joining the long list of turncoats would raise serious questions about their eligibility to contest polls.

Leaders of different political parties will have to be very careful while awarding tickets to the candidates. If traditional ways are followed and new initiatives are not put in place, it is certain that the next election will result in another hung Parliament that, perhaps, will not be able to complete its tenure facilitating the undemocratic forces to step-in. Thus, the burden squarely lies on the shoulders of PPP and PML-N leaders, who need to be careful about their role during the elections.

In addition, it is important for them to reach full consensus on the remaining issues. For example, in case the PPP and PML-N are unable to resolve the matter of the caretaker Prime Minister and it is assigned to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), there is a possibility that an attempt might be made to turn the interim setup into a long-term government.

All this and with certain reservations on the ECP by powerful political elements, who are presently not represented in the National Assembly, could create chaos in the country. One hopes that wisdom will prevail and Pakistan’s march on the road to democracy will continue without much hassle.
Any serious confrontation between the political parties has the potential not only to disrupt this march, but could also result in the early demise of the democratic dispensation. Those who are responsible to see that this objective is achieved will have to be extremely careful and avoid the pitfalls.

It is expected that all the major players will stay away from issues, which are highly destructive to democracy. To achieve this goal, tolerance should be the hallmark of the political leadership, the army and the superior judiciary. If this path is followed, certainly the democratic forces of Pakistan will succeed.

The writer has been associated with various newspapers as editor and columnist. At present, he hosts a political programme on Pakistan Television. Email: zarnatta@hotmail.com

http://www.nation.com.pk

March 09, 2013


The PML-N President Mian Nawaz Sharif’s claim that his party, if voted into power, would take steps that would make Pakistan one of the top 10 economic powers in the world is a tall order, with no detailed roadmap behind it as yet. While the manifesto said every thing to soothe a people who are suffering, virtually beyond endurance, because of the precipitate downward slide of the economy over the past five years, the delivery of such promises would be difficult to expect from any party, not just the one making them. Optimistic estimates of exports would earn $100 billion a year, tax ratio to GDP stand at 15 percent and inflation come down to eight. The PML-N’s election manifesto that Mian Nawaz Sharif presented before the media on Thursday was a tall order; for hardly any facet of life under the sun was left out where radical changes were not committed. It asserted that once given the heavy mandate necessary to take firm decisions, the party would revive and, wherever necessary, reform the specific areas that underpin the economy. It would put an end to loadshedding in just two years and gradually raise the minimum salary for unskilled labour to Rs 15,000, to recount just two measures that while bolstering the economy would also help the poorest class of society to face the challenge. Revolutionary developments were promised: reforms in the taxation system, health, education, trade, agriculture, information technology, science and infrastructure. The current economic liabilities like Railways and PIA would be revamped. The era of loot and plunder would end, the scourge of terrorism vanish; and the lot of the youth, women, minorities and what have you improve. Justice would become easily available and so would jobs. A fair accountability system would come in force. And so on and on!

The downside: even in a PMLN imagined utopia, there was no mention of Kalabagh Dam that holds the prospects of not only generating nearly 4,000MW of power, but also providing regulated water to the fertile land being rendered barren by India’s diversion of water and as a spin-off its huge reservoir help control floods in the downstream. The site is ideal, rated so by international dam experts and its feasibility ready; it is asking for exploitation. And also against the national interest was the promise of creating three provinces, sadly just to win over the misguided voters.

Returning to the rosy side of the manifesto, only a moment’s reflection would bring to the fore the ticklish facts that, in the first instance, drove the economy to near bankruptcy and, in the second, impeded its resurgence. The ills of terrorism, law and order and power shortage – factors that immediately impinge upon growth – continue to worsen, prompting local industrialists to shift their businesses abroad, let alone persuading outsiders to invest here. Then the hydra-headed monster of corruption, the crumbling vital institutions, the abysmal educational and healthcare standards, the debilitating overcrowding with unchecked population, the obnoxious tilt in favour of the ruling classes to the disadvantage of the rest, the dreadful spectre of extremist mindset, etc., etc. Only a leadership with a missionary zeal can eliminate these evils rooted in society and turn the corner. One hopes and wishes the PML-N, if it comes into power, can fulfil the promise of that spirit.

http://www.nation.com.pk

March 16, 2013 . 0

The PPP Parliamentarians launched its election manifesto on Thursday in Islamabad, in a joint press conference by party President Makhdum Amin Fahim and leading lights of the government. That made it clear the PPP will not be contesting under its own banner, as one of its Co-Chairmen, Asif Zardari is President, and thus prevented both by superior court judgements and the Election Commission of Pakistan’s Code of Conduct from electoral activity. However, as the PPP Parliamentarians will not only fight the election but also accepts the tenure coming to an end as its own, it is perhaps reflective of a certain failure of imagination that it intends to take the ‘roti kapra aur makaan’ slogan it used in the 1970 election when it contested for the first time, into an election occurring 42 years later. It highlights the paucity of the PPP’s achievements in these three fields in the tenure just completed. This failure could well lead the voter to wonder whether the PPP has any intention of solving these problems.

However, there is a more basic issue, afflicting the people, which the PPP government did virtually nothing to redress, and which its manifesto does not address directly: loadshedding and the pledge to add 12,000MW of electricity by the end of the next tenure by way of gas, coal, hydel and renewable energy. However, the manifesto fails to mention the Kalabagh Dam, just as the PML-N manifesto revealed earlier had not done. Without addressing the underlying cause of all the economic malaise afflicting the country, the various pledges made by the PPP, such as legislation to give labour representatives seats in the legislatures, to spend 4.5 percent of GDP on education by term-end, to provide a youth employment initiative called the People’s Employment Programme, will not solve anything, even if implemented.
The PPP has the disadvantage of previous tenures in office. It is a disadvantage from the point of view of the manifesto because it is a party with a known track record. That shows that the party did not take its manifesto pledges seriously, and does not really expect realistically to fulfill them. Judging by that standard, the PPP manifesto does not give an idea of why exactly a PPP government should be re-elected and if it was, how it would be different from the five years passed. Or, heaven forfend, is one to look forward to just more of the same?

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne.../ppp-manifesto

Monday, 18 Mar 2013

Install a caretaker setup as soon as possible

So the prime minister gave a farewell address, sort of, to the nation the other day. There is nothing wrong with that. On the contrary, being a landmark in our political history, a democratic government completing its term that is, it was a good thing. He spoke at length on how his party’s government had done great for the country and how it had made the lives of a common man easier than before. While there may be only a few takers of the former claim, the latter might not even come close to having any voice in its favour.

Yes, the country has a strong constitutional foothold than ever with legislation varying from women rights to corporal punishments in schools. Interestingly, that has always been the hallmark of every PPP government ever since it first came to power in the early ’70s. However, completing a term does not absolve the government of its responsibilities; it has to ensure that the democratic process is not hampered. It has to give the reins of power to the caretaker setup, and announce election schedule. Now that the government has functionally ceased to exist, it would be a perfect time for the Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, who is holding the post till a caretaker PM is appointed, to take necessary measures to ensure peaceful elections and transfer of power.

The major hurdle in the way, as some might suggest, is not the federal government itself. It is the provincial governments that seem to be focused on political score settling than burying the hatchet and finding a way to move forward. The Punjab CM, for example, denied that he gave any date to dissolve Punjab assembly along with or simultaneously with the other assemblies. Shahbaz Sharif, CM Punjab, has said that he won’t dissolve the provincial assembly unless the PM accepts his demands. Those demands include appointing a caretaker PM of the PML-N’s choice, and ironically stopping the PPP to appoint caretaker CMs in Sindh and Balochistan assemblies. The Balochistan assembly seems to be in even greater political crisis. The opposition there has got more members now, who have resigned from the PPP and the PML-Q, causing the balance to shift in favour of Nawabzada Tariq Magsi against Aslam Raisani, a once booted out chief minister. If these problems are not tackled at once, the elections might get delayed, a concern expressed by Ishaq Dar of the PML-N as well. Instead of gloating over what they have done, or what they are doing, the PPP should take PML-N along with it to work out an agreement on a caretaker setup.

The sooner the power is handed over to a caretaker setup, the better it would be for the democratic process in the country. PPP has shown its good intentions by dissolving the national assembly on time, it must now go a step further and prove its intentions in practice by handing over power to a caretaker setup. And so do the provincial governments, particularly the Punjab and Balochistan governments.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013...rials/move-on/

The politicians may finally agree on a caretaker setup. After all they managed to develop a consensus on the names of the CEC and the four members of the ECP. What stands in the way are inflexible attitudes. Both the PPP and the PML-N have meanwhile undertaken actions that add to the already considerable reservoir of mutual suspicions. The sending of the MQM to the opposition benches in Sindh weeks before the dismissal of the assemblies was widely seen to be a manoeuvre by both to have a caretaker setup of their own choice in Sindh. The arrangement worked out with Chief Minister Raisani in Balochistan is yet another provocation for the opposition and the nationalist parties. In this case as well the motive is to have a pliable interim setup in the province.

The PML-N is using the timing of the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly to bring Raja Pervez Ashraf round to accept one of its nominees for the interim prime minister. While agreeing in principle on holding the elections on the same day, Shahbaz Sharif has said that he may not dismiss the Punjab Assembly on March 19 unless the PML-N’s specific conditions were met. Ch. Nisar Ali knew very well that the two nominees suggested by him were bound to draw an angry response from the PPP. He then insisted that no changes would be made in the names as they had been proposed after consultations with 13 opposition parties. He also refused to reconsider the name of Justice (Retd) Shakirullah Jan who was initially among the three names proposed by him but later dropped without assigning any reason. The arbitrary withdrawal of his name without consulting the PML-N’s newly-found ally Fazlur Rehman has led to a strong remonstrance from the latter. In case the top political leadership fails to reach an understanding by Tuesday night, the task is likely to become more difficult when the issue is taken up by the eight-member bipartisan committee. Despite all their claims to have learnt from the past, the mainstream parties continue to take actions that contribute to mutual distrust. The hunch for caretaker setups of their choice is aimed at making the full use of whatever space is thus made available for pre-election rigging. The first step any partisan caretaker setup is likely to take is to appoint field officers during the elections best suited to implement their agenda.

At the end of the day, a give and take is not entirely ruled out. The matter is now to be decided by Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, the later returning to Pakistan on Monday. In case they too fail and the issue lands up at the ECP’s table, this would be considered as yet another surrender of the political turf to an unelected body.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013...s/the-impasse/

“I am arriving in Pakistan on March 24th. I need your support,” former President Pervez Musharraf announced via his Facebook page on early Monday. “A senate resolution adopted in January last year is very clear that he should be arrested and prosecuted,” was the response of Senator Raza Rabbani from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). “It is the expression of the will of the lawmakers.” Such is the repulse with which the guardians of Pakistan’s democracy look at the former dictator that Musharraf has been forced to announce dates of return and then subsequently withdraw them many times over. The above mentioned resolution adopted unanimously by the upper house demanded Musharraf’s arrest and the initiation of a treason case against the former dictator who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999. The maximum penalty for Musharraf, if charged, is hanging. For once, however, it appears that the former commando is sticking to his guns – perhaps thinking that the caretaker government will be more amenable to his arrival.

But of course he appears to have forgotten that another increasingly strong player in the country: the judiciary, which he so attempted to dispose, and which is a dark horse which has given sufficient hints to suggest that it will issue arrest orders for Musharraf in one of the many cases against him lying before it. One of these is the Lal Masjid Enquiry Commission before which Musharraf has refused to appear. The commission has the power to issue his arrest warrants or seize his properties – meaning that even if he escapes arrest, his party may be decapitated with a lock down of its funds. All that said and done, Musharraf’s party, the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) has announced plans for a ‘historic welcome’ for the deposed leader next Sunday in Karachi. “The people of Karachi will receive the APML chief in an unprecedented manner,” a APML apparatchik told a party delegation in Hyderabad. Maybe the APML believes that it can pull of the unexpected.

People’s memories in Pakistan do tend to be short. But the fact is that the country and its people are still suffering the effects of Musharraf’s policies. His consumption-oriented economic policies, relying on trickle down, failed badly. The power crisis, increased corruption in politics, the worsening of the situation in Balochistan and the increase in terrorism, all trace their origins to the Musharraf era. While Musharraf still retains a democratic right to take part in the elections, he must be tried in the cases registered against him. Moreover, it is still hard to answer the question: what is Musharraf returning for? Perhaps, the former dictator shall furnish an answer once he arrives.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013...af-coming-for/

A new threat has emerged to the forthcoming elections. The TTP has called off the offer of talks with the government accusing the civil and military administration of being non-serious. It has also reiterated its opposition to the prevailing political system, calling it an “un-Islamic democratic system which only serves the interests of infidels and enemies of Islam.” The TTP has told the voters to abstain from participating in the election activity. What is more it has specifically advised them stay away from the gatherings organized by the PPP, ANP and MQM. In other words the TTP is to decide henceforth which parties are to be allowed to participate in the elections and which are to be kept out of the race. It remains to be seen how the parties excluded from the TTP advisory react to the challenge posed by the militant network. Will they rejoice at having been given an assurance of violence free campaigning or join hands with the condemned parties to reject the ultimatum? It is in the long term interest of the political parties to act in support of the system and desist the temptation for appeasement.

The militant network has also declared a war against the courts. Accepting responsibility for the suicide attack inside the Peshawar judicial complex, it has maintained that judiciary has “failed to protect innocent citizens like Dr Aafia Siddiqui.” It claims that TTP’s so far unknown affiliate Aafia Siddqui Brigade has conducted the attack that killed four innocent persons and injured 25 others. One can hardly find any justification for blaming the judiciary for failure to protect the activist. Does the network hold only the judiciary in Peshawar responsible for what it considers an act of culpable neglect or is looking for an opportunity to target other courts in the country as well? To many the attack is in fact reflective of Sufi Mohammad mindset; Sufi had in 2009 rejected the constitution along with the parliament, executive and judiciary for being against Islam.

A successful conclusion of the forthcoming elections would strengthen democracy and weaken the hold of the offstage players and conventional powerbrokers. The larger the voter turnout, the stronger would be the elected government. For this there is a need to deal effectively with the elements who are trying to scare away the voters and threatening the political leaders. The TTP warning poses a challenge to the intelligence agencies and law enforcement authorities. What is needed is to ensure that there is no major incident of terrorism during the election campaign which would kick off after the completion of the scrutiny of the nomination papers by the ECP and the announcement of the election schedule by the president.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013...ful-elections/

Nasim Ahmed


Although pre-poll surveys are not always a reliable indicator of which party will emerge victorious in the next election, they are a tested and tried method of gauging the political weather and forecasting voting trends. Gallup, Pildat and SDPI recently conducted countrywide surveys to measure how the Pakistani voters would vote in the coming elections. Their findings have yielded interesting trends and results, some of them not altogether unexpected.

The survey results showed the PML-N as leading the way with a consolidated average national score of 37 per cent, followed by 16 per cent scored by the PPP as well as the PTI. In order to better assess the voting patterns, the survey identified and developed three drivers of possible change in conventional electoral patterns: (i) popularity-electability gap defined as the difference between the popularity of the leader and that of the party; (ii) alliance potential index measured by the voters first and second choice in the elections; and (iii) acceptability gap or the measure of a voter's hostility to a particular party with a positive value given to that party where the voter favours a party more than expresses hostility against it.

The survey also took note of the results of the November 2012 survey by the US-based International Republican Institute and the February 2013 poll conducted by Gallup and provided a consolidated score: PML-N 32 per cent in IRI, 41 per cent in Gallup and 36.5 percent in consolidated, with PTI in the second place with 18, 14 and 16 per cent and the PPP in the third place with 14, 17 and 15.5 per cent respectively. The PML-Q came last with a score of 2, 4 and 3 per cent.

In the Punjab, the PML-N came out the strongest with 49 per cent in IRI, 59 per cent in Gallup and 54 per cent consolidated, followed by the PTI with a score of 19, 14 and 16.5 per cent and the PPP with a score of 8, 10 and 9 per cent respectively. However, in south Punjab the PPP fared better thanks to its election promise of carving out a new province. PTI scored the second highest in north Punjab with 15 per cent but came third in west and south Punjab with 9 and 16 per cent scores.

In Sindh, the PPP is clearly in the lead with a score of 32 per cent in IRI, 37 per cent in Gallup and 34.5 per cent consolidated, followed by MQM 16, 19, and 17.5 per cent and PTI in the third place with a score of 9, 7 and 8 per cent and the PML-N 8, 6 and 7 per cent consolidated respectively. In Karachi, the MQM, as expected, scored the highest with 45 per cent, followed by PTI 11 per cent and the PPP 10 per cent.

The survey findings gave a majority to PTI in KP with a 32 percent score by IRI, 28 per cent by Gallup and 30 per cent consolidated, followed by the PML-N with 12, 34 and 23 per cent, JUI (F) 6, 10 and 8 per cent consolidated, and ANP with 3, 11 and 7 per cent respectively. But, in terms of voting patterns, the PML-N emerged a clear winner with 34, 36 and 43 per cent vote in KP south, Valley and Hazara with PTI in the second place with a score of 33, 28 and 34 per cent. In Balochistan, as per Gallup, regional parties scored the highest with 36 per cent followed by PPP's 18 per cent, PML-N 13 and PTI 8. Gallup polls also show JUI/MMA's 18 per cent score with ANP at 13 per cent.
On the other hand, SDPI's report titled Political Barometer: A Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan, an outcome of opinion surveys conducted in 54 districts across the country, showed somewhat different results. According to its findings, 29 per cent of registered voters expressed their intention to vote for PPP, while 24.7 per cent pledged support to the PML-N and 20.3 per cent indicated a preference for PTI.

Voting choices on the basis of ethnicity showed 55 per cent Sindhis favouring PPP, 34 per cent Pakhtuns backing PTI, with 43 per cent Punjabis supporting PML-N. 47 per cent Balochis said they would vote for BNP-Mengal. SDPI's survey made the interesting finding that PTI derived support from all ages, dispelling the notion that its vote bank is concentrated in younger generations. According to the SDPI survey, PML-N's vote bank has more or less remained stable while the PPP's popularity has declined significantly, with its voters shifting to PTI.

However, the findings cannot be taken as a permanent indicator of the popularity levels of different political parties. Politics in the country is in a state of flux and loyalties are constantly changing. The final election results may not reflect the current set of statistics. Recently in Balochistan, 5 members of the provincial and national assemblies joined the PML-N. As acknowledged by Pildat/Gallup, the voting patterns may continue to change till the last minute. Overall, the ultimate determinant will be the electorate's opinion of a party's past performance and future expectations.

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