20-10-2014

The army`s view

THEN the army chief speaks, listening can be instructive, especially if the chief is dilating on issues of national security and foreign policy. In more normal times, Gen Raheel Sharif`s speech to fresh graduates of the military academy in Kakul would have been a routine affair, but context can be everything. With violence along the LoC and Working Boundary having flared up recently, tensions with India still high, a military operation in North Waziristan looking set to continue into the winter, a new dispensation in Afghanistan and civil-military relations having taken more than a few knocks in recent months, Gen Sharif`s words were all the more important. And it is more than likely they indicated state policy direction on key issues in the near future.

On India, the message was not quite a dismal one given the aggressive tone emanating from New Delhi under the Narendra Modi-led BJP government. But it certainly suggests that Pakistan and India are back to square one, with Pakistan insisting that normalisation and peace can only take place in an environment where the Kashmir dispute is placed front and centre. Yet, nothing Gen Sharif said suggests that the army-led security establishment is quite looking for a solution on an urgent or innovative basis. By reiterating that the Kashmir dispute must be resolved `in accordance with the will of Kashmiri people as enshrined in the UN resolutions` the army here has signalled that it is not in fact really seeking any forward movement on Kashmir. In reality, principled and legal as Pakistan`s long-standing formulation on Kashmir has been, the original fair and just solution is a virtual non-starter now. Anything that does nudge the Kashmir dispute closer to resolution as opposed to a return to the non-violent impasse of the past decade would have to be the so-called out-of-the-box solution that Pervez Musharraf semi-championed. Clearly though, the army leadership does not believe and it may well be right that the Modi government is remotely interested in pursuing peace right now, let alone a resolution of the Kashmir issue.

On Afghanistan, meanwhile, Gen Sharif sounded a more conciliatory tone, essentially welcoming the Ashraf Ghani-Abdullah Abdullah governance experiment and even suggesting that the Pakistan Army will support the Afghan security forces, despite longheld reservations about the size, purpose and viability of the foreignfunded Afghan National Army. While the army`s Afghan policy may not fundamentally have changed as yet, there are signs that if the Afghans find a way to establish relative peace and stability in their country, Pakistan will not intervene against or scuttle an internal Afghan settlement. Finally, on internal security and Operation Zarbi-Azb, Gen Sharif suggested that `cohesive, dedicated and timely involvement of all stake holders and state institutions is essential` for peace. But then, what has the army really done to encourage civilian input?

Bilawal`s rally

THE PPP rally in Karachi on Saturday demonstrated the party`s enduring appeal in Sindh and established that Bilawal Bhutto Zardari at least appears to understand the basic fault lines and the existential challenges the country faces today. To the party`s detractors, however, the memory of the disastrous governance between 2008 and 2013 is still far too fresh, and the Sindh provincial government`s ongoing problems of administration render the party a part of the problem rather than the solution a change-seeking electorate wants. Yet, whatever the pundits on both sides of the PPP divide may believe, there are certain realities that transcend wishful thinking. For one, the PPP will command a winning vote bank in Sindh for the foreseeable future unless a new political alternative appears which can appeal to the needs of the Sindh voter. But there is no sign of that political alternative appearing, and one or two PTI rallies will not change the situation. For another, the country needs a political option that espouses the politics of inclusivity and is clear on the only way forward for the country a secular, liberal, constitutional and democratic polity.

Yet, for all that the PPP says right, it does twice as many things wrong. In speaking for the downtrodden, poor and oppressed, the party is a champion of a worthy cause. But should not the point of such politics be to afford opportunities to the disadvantaged so that the latter are able to socially, economically and politically move ahead in life? The PPP speaks for the deprived segments, but it does not seem to be too concerned with ensuring that they do not remain poor. Surely, even 10 consecutive years of rule in Sindh which is what will happen if elections are held on time in 2018 will not fundamentally transform a society with such deep-rooted and varied structural problems. But can anyone really say that the PPP is even on the right policy trajectory? Surely not. Therein lies the problem for Mr Bhutto Zardari: he will not be in charge of his party for many years it seems, but the intervening period could fatally damage the Bhutto and PPP brand he will inherit. Surely, there will always be some kind of a vote bank in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan but can it remotely be a winning vote bank if everything the party stands for is undone by its performance in office? The PPP needs to reinvent itself before it can aspire to save Pakistan.

Space for culture

WHILE Karachi is more known for frequent bloodshed and chaos, the fact that the megacity has just witnessed the seventh edition of the International Urdu Conference shows it can also play host to events that promote learning. The four-day conference, which concluded on Sunday, featured eminent men of letters and literati from across Pakistan as well as the diaspora. That writers and scholars from India, Egypt and Turkey were present was an added bonus. It is heartening that despite Karachi`s near-constant instability and the fact that political activity in the metropolis was at fever pitch due to Saturday`s PPP rally, the public`s attendance at the conference was encouraging, though perhaps a stronger presence from the youth was needed. Participants of the `cultural congregation` discussed a range of topics relevant to the condition and future prospects of Urdu. Of course, the rampant extremism in society did not escape the attention of the discussants, as speakers said fiction writers specifically feared an obscurantist backlash.

Equally interesting were concerns about the effects globalisation was having on Urdu. In the new `global culture`largely shaped by multinational corporations English was dominant and to ensure its survival Urdu had to `turn itself into the language of creativity and knowledge`. Languages the world over face a Darwinian struggle; only the strongest survive in a globalised age, and efforts such as the Urdu conference are essential to ensuring languages are patronised and nurtured.

Some speakers also raised the point that in the current societal milieu, literature and language did not matter much. Indeed, literature conferences, book fairs and other events that promote learning are essential to fostering tolerance and civilised behaviour in society. Encouragingly, Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad have all over the past few years witnessed regular events that promote literature and the arts. However, challenges persist; only last year, Karachi`s book fair was targeted by protesting extremists. The state can help by supporting such literary endeavours and protecting them from the threats posed by hardliners.

THE State Bank of Pakistan’s annual report starts off by telling us that the situation may have looked grim at the start of the last fiscal year, but with time many things improved. Inflation went down, reserves went up, the fiscal deficit was contained and growth saw a modest revival. But read on and the shine diminishes steadily as the caveats appear. Yes, inflation went down, but surely much of this decline owed to larger than expected declines in oil prices, and a steep appreciation of the rupee. Reserves went up, but largely on the back of one-off inflows, driven mostly by borrowing.

The fiscal deficit was indeed contained at 5.5pc, but much of this was made possible by accounting tricks, without whose aid the deficit would have been 7.5pc. Growth saw a modest revival, especially in manufacturing, but much of this centred on areas that the SBP does not see as priorities, like beverages and fertiliser. The report is skillfully written to avoid assigning any blame, and rightly highlights the structural weaknesses that have plagued Pakistan’s economy for many decades. Manpower, for instance, is the country’s largest export -larger than textiles, if we compare remittances with textile exports. This is a problem, because it means the economy’s capacity to earn foreign exchange is steadily being eroded.

Some perspective on this problem is provided a few pages later, when the report looks more closely at the recovery in the reserves posted earlier in the year. That recovery allowed the rupee to appreciate, and unlocked other inflows from the donor agencies and international investors. But since that recovery was financed by borrowed money, ‘certain debt sustainability indicators witnessed erosion’ at the same time. Not satisfied with this admittedly mild rebuke, the report goes on to add ‘this should be viewed as a warning that Pakistan must increase its hard currency earnings in the future, and not take on expensive debt to finance its external deficit’. This deficiency, which is growing wider each year, lies at the heart of the economy’s dysfunction.

The description of the rulers’ response to the challenges does not live up to the positive spin that the government likes to put on its own track record. Shortages of gas have regressed to publicly lobbying policymakers` polite language for ad hoc management. Failure in the power sector is visible in the resurgent circular debt, `which will be paid off this fiscal year` a debt, we were told 18 months ago, that would not be allowed to recur again. Any improvement in the fiscal equation is either driven by one-off measures, or by large increases in withholding taxes, pointing towards the difficulty in getting people to file their returns. The report gives a balanced and substantive look at what ails our economy, and Q block would be well advised to read its contents carefully.

A dangerous parallel

NO doubt the investigation into the methods of interrogation used by the CIA at detention centres housing post-9/11 terror suspects ought to have come much earlier. But if there is any positive aspect to the sorry spectacle under way in the US, it is that the Senate as an institution and at the level of its individual members has demonstrated the will and capacity to call out a powerful state organisation for its misdemeanours, and correct the trajectory of the rule of law. Compare the CIA torture findings with a parallel that has become an increasingly bigger issue in Pakistan: that of the `missing persons` As is known generally, the euphemism refers to persons who are illegally picked up and there are strong reasons to believe that the state security agencies are responsible and confined or interrogated without due process being followed. It is a matter of record that over the years, many missing individuals have showed up as dumped dead bodies, often bullet-riddled and bearing marks of torture. The issue is linked primarily to Balochistan and the nationalist insurgency there, while there have also been reports over the years of people being picked up in KP and the tribal areas and kept in illegal detention as part of the various security operations against militancy. Worryingly, the scourge has now spread to Sindh.

Yet no amount of quizzing by a host of investigative cells, in fact by the Supreme Court itself, has solved the problem. Press reports, public outcry and heroic activism, such as the long and lonely march by Mama Qadeer Baloch, have all failed to move the state’s democratic institutions towards any sort of meaningful action. While some people, such as most of the Adiala 11, have been recovered alive, the fate of far too many remains untraced. Meanwhile, for good reason, suspicions remain that the agencies have not changed their ways. Pakistan might take a leaf out of the US Senate’s book. The answer to what currently seems an intractable problem could lie in the constitution of a bipartisan parliamentary committee that works concertedly to investigate the matter and lay it bare, paving the way for taking to task individuals and institutions that are found to have exceeded the limits of their mandate. There is no reason for parliament to not demonstrate its will and capacity in this regard, and settle once and for all the shameful matter of extrajudicial detentions and killings.

THE death of a peaceful Palestinian demonstrator, who also happened to be a minister in the Palestinian government, has led to outrage across the world and hurt the Israeli cause even in places where Tel Aviv has traditionally enjoyed support. Ziad Abu Ein died at the hands of brutish Israeli security personnel, even though media reports made clear he and other foreign peace activists, including Israeli human rights crusaders, were protesting peacefully against settlement activity. TV footage showed that the minister offered no resistance as an Israeli soldier punched, kicked and assaulted him, grabbing him by the throat. Killing innocent civilians is nothing new for Israel’s security apparatus. Ignoring such historic and chilling massacres as those at Deir Yassin, Sabra-Chatila and Jenin, brainwashed Israeli soldiers have as a matter of state policy displayed a vicious streak in dealing with peaceful civilians, including non-Arab activists. In March 2003, Rachel Corrie, an American peace worker, was run over by an Israeli bulldozer while she was protesting against the demolition of Palestinian homes in Gaza. Such, however, is the control of the Israel lobby in the US over the media that American public opinion is hardly aware of Corrie’s sacrifice.

Like countless crimes against humanity, Ziad Abu Ein’s murder, too, will be forgotten as the Israeli leadership continues its relentless drive to build and expand settlements, besides acting on a calculated policy to strip the West Bank population of its economic assets. It seems that even a Palestinian-owned olive tree is an affront to the Israeli state the Palestinian minister and others were carrying olive plants. Israel’s ultimate aim is to sabotage the two-state formula. In fact, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s media talk some months ago was categorical, for he declared he would never countenance a sovereign Palestinian state on the West Bank. Israel should, however, note that the world has started to express stronger sympathy with the Palestinian cause and that the emergence of a sovereign Palestinian state may not be a distant dream after all.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

THE independent power producers have been persuaded to withdraw their notices to call in their sovereign guarantees for now, and the government is busy trying to arrange the funds for another massive retirement of the circular debt. The latter has once again reached historic highs near Rs580bn. This spiraling increase has happened in spite of huge increases in the power tariff.

This is the second time that the IPPs have been forced to call in their sovereign guarantees, which means pushing the government into paying up or being declared in sovereign default in the last two years.

The government has reportedly told the IPPs that so long as the notices are hanging over its head, its ability to raise funds to properly pay the receivables in the power sector will be hampered. This shows the enormous position of weakness that the government finds itself in when dealing with private power producers. Not that long ago, Nepra, the power regulator, had raised the prospect of auditing the accounts of the IPPs to determine if they were properly billing the government for sale of power. But this time round it appears all attempts to push back against the IPPs’ tough talk have been abandoned.

The State Bank has also said in its annual report that the circular debt “will be paid this fiscal year, or it could risk undermining the supply chain of power”, meaning we could land up right where we were in June 2013, with unending power outages across many parts of the country. Certainly nobody wants to traverse that territory again, but we also cannot afford to keep letting the debt pile up then retire it at one go every two years. Somewhere something has to change fundamentally to make sure that this problem does not keep recurring, and endless tariff increases are not accomplishing the task at hand.

The fundamental changes needed are on the distribution side. This is where the bulk of the inefficiencies are piling up. The government’s efforts thus far have been focused on increasing generation, because improving distribution is a long and difficult road that includes fundamentally reforming the distribution companies and making them more responsive to the needs of the consumers and the prerogatives of the government. The minister for water and power has emphasised the importance of the transmission and distribution side as well, saying that it is pointless to arrange for more electricity since our system cannot carry it. The State Bank has also pointed in this direction, saying “the immediate solution lies in overhauling the existing transmission and distribution system on a war footing”, as well as bringing down the cost of generation. Given the emphasis that the transmission and distribution inefficiencies have been receiving over the years, it is almost incomprehensible why there has been so little effort at reforming this.

Rethinking shutdowns

TENTION of the words ‘shut down’ and ‘strike’ send a wave of uncertainty rippling across Karachi, and for good reason.

As is often the case, such protests are accompanied by violence and bloodshed, as well as the disruption of daily routines and loss of livelihoods. Luckily for residents of the metropolis, the PTI’s shutdown on Friday was a relatively peaceful and violence-free affair. Roads were indeed blocked by party workers at key points in the city while tyres were burnt at many spots. But compared to past protests in Karachi, and the recent unfortunate events in Faisalabad, the shutdown in the country’s financial hub passed off without incident. There are of course reasons for this. Firstly, the PTI itself was in a restrained mood and seemed content to block roads from dawn to dusk to get its message across. The realisation that the protest was taking place the day before Chehlum must have also led the party leadership to ensure that matters did not get out of hand at such a sensitive time. Secondly, the attitude of the PPP-led Sindh government was starkly different to what the PML-N administration in Punjab put on display in Faisalabad. While workers from both the PTI and the N-League were riled up at that event, perhaps the ugly violence could have been avoided had the PML-N taken a less confrontational stance, especially when it was running both the provincial and federal governments. And then, the MQM arguably Karachi’s most powerful political force also seemed content to let Imran Khan’s party have its day in the sun; in fact Muttahida chief Altaf Hussain defended the PTPs “political and constitutional right” to protest.

While it is indeed the democratic right of all groups to stage peaceful protests, political and religious parties need to rethink the strategy of using shutdowns as an effective mode of protest. Even when shutdowns are peaceful, as on Friday, the financial losses caused to the national economy by bringing life in major cities to a halt are considerable. And in case the demonstrations turn violent, the damage can be high both in terms of blood and treasure. At the end of the day, blocking roads and suspending routine activities hits the common citizen the hardest. Hence protests must be planned in such a way that the message is conveyed to the intended recipients with the least inconvenience caused to the public at large.

Foreign pressure

IT is a measure of Pakistan’s weak position in the comity of nations that even a modest attempt by Islamabad to diversify its economic and defence ties can invite pressure if not disapprobation from Western quarters. For instance, some days ago, the European Union envoy to Pakistan, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, urged the government here to condemn Russia’s “aggressive role” in Ukraine. Pakistan’s recent deal with Russia is hardly the milestone in ties described by Islamabad. No doubt, the accord speaks of cooperation between the two countries in a variety of fields, including defence which at best concerns Russia’s willingness to sell MI-35 helicopters to Pakistan. Given the unhappy relationship Pakistan has had with Russia in the past, the accords signed last November are significant from Islamabad’s point of view at a time when Nato forces have all but withdrawn and a question mark hangs over the future of Afghanistan, where stability and peace are a common concern for all regional countries. That the EU envoy should put pressure on Islamabad to adopt a position which militates against its bid to improve relations with Russia underlines Pakistan’s weakness in the harsh world of geopolitics.

Contrast this with India’s ambitious deal under which Russia will supply 10 nuclear reactors to it. This massive inflow of nuclear assets from Russia follows a similar deal with the United States some years ago, with both Moscow and Washington accepting New Delhi’s sovereign right to set its own priorities in foreign affairs. To be fair to Pakistan, this country successfully stood all pressures when it came to ties with China. But the leaders who crafted our China policy were a different breed. They had the courage to chart an independent foreign policy at the height of the Cold War when Pakistan was in the Western camp. Now it is Pakistan’s aid-dependent economy, rampant terrorism and political instability that make it weak and diffident. If we want to earn the world’s respect, we must first put our house in order.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

YET another week of hope and trepidation appears to lie ahead for the country. Today, the PML-N and the PTI are set to kick off another round of talks centred on an inquiry into PTI allegations of fraud in the May 2013 general election and a raft of much-needed electoral reforms to make future elections more acceptable and credible. But the PTI also looks set to continue with its so-called Plan C, with the focus switching to the ultimate political battleground in Punjab Lahore itself. On both fronts, there are many potential complications. For one, the round of talks to begin today are going to be held in private thus depriving the public of knowledge of what is being negotiated on their behalf by their present and would-be representatives. It is odd that secret negotiations need to be held when it comes to determining whether the voting public was denied legitimate and transparently elected representatives in May 2013. Moreover, with the respective positions of the PML-N and PTI not staked out in public, there is always the possibility of one or the other side either reneging on promises or denying publicly what it may have conceded in private. Hopefully more transparency will be delivered than has been promised.

On the arrival of Plan C in Lahore and then nationally, the risk is obvious: a repeat of the Faisalabad episode or worse. In Faisalabad, the PTI`s aggressive tactics and the PML-N`s aggressive response created a situation where a life was lost and many more lives were endangered. Lahore has already witnessed one unacceptable and horrifying incident this year, in Model Town on June 19 when several Tahirul Qadri supporters were killed in clashes trigged by police action, and another bout of violence could have all manner of serious consequences. Perhaps both the PTI and the PML-N can learn from the Karachi experience, where PTI protesters were organised but not threatening and the local administration maintained a hands-off approach. It is not often that Karachi can be a template for other cities in terms of managing risk, but surely the administrators of Lahore and the PML-N leadership need to study both the Faisalabad and Karachi experiences and learn from them.

Ultimately though, the question has to be asked: for how long can this go on? The impasse and the protests could go on indefinitely, but only if the PTI and PML-N continue with their selfish, often destructive style of politics. Protest is a democratic right, but after laying siege to Constitution Avenue in Islamabad, the PTI has moved on to disrupting daily life and business in some of the country`s biggest cities and economic hubs. The PTI has slipped far from the politics of hope it once championed. As for the PML-N, it seems to have lost its way and forgotten its responsibilities as custodian of the democratic process. Perhaps the week ahead could mark a turnabout.

Need for introspection

OVER the past few days, there have been visible signs of flux within the MQM. On Wednesday, party chief Altaf Hussain, in an emotional speech to his workers gathered at the party headquarters in Karachi, announced the dissolution of the coordination committee, a key body within the party’s organisational structure. Though the immediate reason behind the move was what the Muttahida head called the committee’s lack of response to the killing of a party activist in Punjab, Mr Hussain openly criticised committee members for other reasons as well.
He lambasted their `corruption` and censured them for “selling streets and playgrounds” in Karachi. The internal shake-up seemed to be complete on Friday as new members of the committee were announced. A similar scenario was witnessed a few months ago when Mr Hussain disbanded the Karachi Tanzeemi Committee, another powerful organ within the Muttahida`s administrative machinery.

However, the party`s internal political rumblings have rendered it unable to perform on the governance front. It has joined, left and rejoined the Sindh government several times both during the current administration as well as the previous set-up, though it currently sits in the opposition. During this period it has failed to serve as a robust opposition force, while during its time on the treasury benches with the PPP no major moves were made to improve governance.

While it is true that the MQM`s strength lies in the now defunct local government. Karachi was significantly developed during Mustafa Kamal`s watch the party is now failing to make its mark in the provincial legislature.

The Muttahida must realise that unless it sets its house in order, other parties will look to court its vote bank in Sindh. The PTPs profile in the province seems to be rising, if the last two rallies are anything to go by. Last month, Imran Khan`s party staged a decent show in Larkana, while Friday`s shutdown and rally in Karachi indicate that the PTI is feeling increasingly confident on what the MQM considers its turf. While the PTI cannot at this juncture match the Muttahida`s organisational structure in Sindh, if the latter party fails to resolve its internal crises, things may change. After all, the PTI polled a respectable number of votes in last year`s elections on numerous Karachi seats that were considered MQM`territory`. The election numbers indicated changing voting trends in the metropolis.

If it fails to focus on good governance, the Muttahida might find itself facing a serious political challenge in Sindh.

Sugar pricing dispute

IT has been more than two months now that a dispute over the minimum support price of sugarcane has been simmering in Sindh. To this day, most mills in the province have not fired up their boilers or begun the procurement of sugarcane. This is one of the longest delays to the start of the cane-crushing season in recent memory. Despite two orders from the Sindh High Court ordering the millers to start cane-crushing, as the law requires them to do, the only thing being crushed today is the provincial government’s resolve to exercise its executive powers. After putting pressure on the mills for more than a month to begin the crushing season, the Sindh government surrendered to their demand and notified a minimum support price of Rs155 on Dec 4.

The notification caused uproar among growers in the provincial assembly, and days later the provincial government again surrendered and notified a price of Rs182 instead. Now the millers are up in arms, saying they were deceived, calling the revision illegal, and threatening to shut down their operations if the notification is not withdrawn. Clearly, a powerful tug of war is taking place within the Sindh government, since in Punjab the price has been set at Rs180 by the provincial government and crushing has been under way smoothly for weeks now. The Sindh government finds itself caught on both sides of an agricultural price dispute because each side of the equation has powerful representation within the party. Caught between both interests, the only loser is the small grower who cannot wait for very long to sell his crop, as well as the consumer who will bear the ultimate cost of this dithering by the Sindh government. The provincial government must move fast to break this deadlock, taking care to preserve the interests of growers and consumers first. Otherwise, it should simply admit that it is incapable of exercising the executive powers handed to it by the 18th Amendment.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

THE sanctioning of $1bn in military aid to Pakistan by the US Congress will be hailed in many quarters in Pakistan as a sign of improving relations between Pakistan and the US and evidence of trust in the leadership and strategy of army chief Gen Raheel Sharif.

But a few will want to ask a more basic question: why does Pakistan still need US funds to fight militancy inside Pakistan? The billion-dollar military funds that Pakistan will receive in the year ahead is a decade old programme, beginning in a period when the country first began to militarily confront the militant threat and when the military was neither fully prepared nor properly resourced to fight militants. But a decade is a long time and during it the Pakistani military has developed indigenous strategies to fight militants, so why is the state still so reliant on outside funding for military operations here? Consider that $1bn is roughly Rs100bn, a significant chunk of not just the overall military budget each year but an overwhelming proportion of the extra funds that are allocated for specific military operations. So were the aid to be suddenly withdrawn or were Pakistan to surprisingly reject it, it would have wrenching budgetary consequences in the short and even medium term. But aid alone should not be the consideration here. Consider that in the fight against militancy narrative matters, especially the narrative being propagated by the militants to recruit and motivate its fighters. The annual cash doled out to Pakistan by the US makes for a straightforward and alarming narrative for militants to spread: that Pakistan is still doing all that it does in terms of military operations and counterterrorism measures because it is being paid to do so by the US. While simply untrue not only is the fight against militancy a Pakistani fight too, it is being fought here because the state understands its necessity for the security and stability of Pakistan the militant narrative will always gain some traction, if only because military aid continues to flow into Pakistan from the US.

It is one thing to receive equipment and resources considered necessary by the Pakistani state for its military; it is quite another to be paid for military operations that are vital to our own survival.

In other countries, where trade-offs also have to be made, the rise of the militant threat would have not left operations starved of funds.

Instead, hard decisions would have been made domestically to free up the necessary funds. The military would be required to forego non-essential expenditure, long-term spending and acquisition plans would be tweaked and the state would work hard to either free up more budgetary resources for the operations or find equitable ways to increase revenue to pay for them. In Pakistan, it seems turning to good old Uncle Sam is enough.

Intractable problem

IN Pakistan, heads are shaken often over the ills, such as poverty and illiteracy that beset much of the population, dimming the prospects of the country’s future being more productive. But there’s one debilitating problem that is so ugly in its contours that society in general and policymakers in particular tend to simply shy away from addressing it: that of drug abusers and addicts. The problem is huge, though. According to a report released on Thursday on Drug Use in Pakistan 2013, launched by the United Nations Office on Drug and Crime and supported by the federal ministry of interior and narcotics control, more than a million Pakistanis are regular heroin or opium users. Some 430,000 people are estimated to be injecting drug users, of which 73pc reported that they shared syringes. This figure illustrates how fast the drug addiction issue can lead to other, deeply problematic health consequences. UNODC representative Cesar Guedes, who presented the findings, said that some 42pc of injecting drug users in Karachi alone, for example, had contracted HIV, and countless others faced the risk of being infected by this and other blood-communicable viruses such as Hepatitis C.

And let it not be forgotten that once contracted, blood-borne illnesses can be communicated to spouses and children, to make them victims too of a spiral of often fatal sickness.

There have been several pushes over the years to counter the spread and use of drugs in society. While success has been achieved here and there, overall the problem has not been eradicated, and the matter has especially in terms of interventions and medical care for drug addicts been left largely to the non-governmental sector to address. What is required is a concerted push, perhaps led by the centre and in conjunction with the provincial governments, to form a holistic, multi-pronged strategy at several levels. For example, potential drug abusers often tend to be from among the poorest sections of society; children who grow up on the streets, labourers, etc, are of ten far more vulnerable. They need to be made aware of the danger and helped in improving life conditions. Meanwhile, the constitution of drugs in the country, smuggling and sale needs to be brought to a halt we need much more seriousness on this count.

But drug abuse won’t end until the demand is brought down; that can only happen when the state decides to invest in its citizenry.


THE accusation comes from a politician who has been referred to as the `senator’s senator`. Retiring after six terms as a member of America’s upper house, Senator Carl Levin on Thursday said the Bush administration misled the nation to justify the 2003 attack on Iraq. The basis of his criticism of the Republican administration was a declassified CIA letter which said the agency’s field agents had serious doubts about reports that Mohammad Ata, the man behind 9/11, had met an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague one of the pretexts used by the Bush administration to make a case for attacking Iraq because it claimed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. The truth is that Ba`athist Iraq had been defanged after the Iraqi strongman’s Kuwait misadventure in 1990. A US-led coalition, crafted by then president George Bush Sr., had annihilated Saddam Hussein’s war machine, banned the flying of Iraqi planes within parts of Iraq and imposed crippling sanctions.

Such was the comprehensive nature of the sanctions that Iraq was denied the import of certain categories of pharmaceuticals and was unable to filter water that contributed to the death of half a million civilians, something which secretary of state Madeline Albright later justified.

The truth was that the very basis of war fizzled out when the Iraqi dictator agreed to let the UN’s inspection and verification teams, led by Hans Blix, operate without hindrance. Mr Blix later told the Security Council he had found no `smoking gun`. That Mr Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair still chose to attack the oil power was one of the 21st century’s great tragedies. The results of the Anglo-American invasion are before us. Iraq has almost ceased to exist as a state and the so-called Islamic State has created anarchy that has the entire Levant in its grip. While millions have been killed, maimed and displaced, America, too, suffered over 50,000 casualties. Perhaps future US governments will not commit, as hoped by Carl Levin, America’s “sons and daughters to battle on the basis of false statements”.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

No let-up in rhetoric

FAR from making the atmosphere conducive to talking out their differences on a slew of issues, ranging from Kashmir to Siachen, both India and Pakistan are taking several steps back on the road to peace. True, the response on Saturday of Pakistan’s Foreign Office to the deliberatively provocative remarks of Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar was restrained and measured.

By making remarks such as the need to `teach a lesson to those who are rogue` and hinting at `harsh measures`, Mr Parrikar has done little to alleviate Pakistan’s suspicions of its neighbour. But a broader look at the overall picture, beyond the current war of words, shows that neither side has done much to clear the air. Indeed, certain Pakistani ministers themselves are not above targeting New Delhi.

While the hawkish government of Narendra Modi, held responsible for the anti-Muslim Gujarat pogrom of 2002, has left no stone unturned to vitiate the atmosphere, for example by calling off foreign secretary-level talks earlier, the Indians remain concerned by the lack of progress on the trial of the Mumbai suspects in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the more immediate concern for both sides has been the recent skirmishes between Indian and Pakistani forces along the Working Boundary and the Line of Control. A recent attack on Indian security personnel by militants, accused by Mr Parrikar, of having crossed over from Pakistan into India-held Kashmir has further strained ties. There are lessons in diplomacy to be learnt by both sides here. Rather than jumping the gun, and asserting that it was `an open secret that the militants came from Pakistan`, the defence minister would have done well to have waited for investigations to produce evidence that could substantiate his views. For its part, Pakistan must remember that even if it no longer provides support to such forays by militants, its lack of action against anti-India groups and their leaders, indeed its tacit acceptance of them, may cause India’s concerns to be seen as valid.

Sadly, over the years the problems between India and Pakistan have mounted to a point that may appear difficult to solve now. Hard egos instead of flexible attitudes, disdain instead of accommodation and eagerness to blame each other for any untoward incident instead of self-introspection have pushed matters almost to the point of no return. Had the two countries attempted earlier to resolve the less intractable differences between them, by now there would have been hope that they were at least on the right track.

Conversely, taking hard-line positions will only boost the attempts of those lobbies, in both countries, that are keen to see a South Asian conflagration. In the end, it will be the ordinary folk who will continue to suffer as the lack of cooperation on so many fronts, including trade and development, would mean continuing poverty for the entire region.

Hockey chaos

AKISTAN`S 2-0 loss to Germany in the final of the Champions Trophy in Bhubaneswar, India, on Sunday deprived the team of a golden opportunity to win the prestigious event after 20 years and to recover some of their lost glory. The Germans, who claimed their 10th title in the tournament’s history, displayed a superior game of skills and stamina to emerge as deserving champions. Though Pakistan held the Germans to a goalless first half, they failed to cash in on the scoring opportunities that came their way, and were, in fact, a shadow of the fiercely competitive side that got the better of Holland and India in the quarterfinal and the semi-final respectively. Clearly smarting over a series of ugly incidents that marred their 4-3 win over India on Friday, the Green-shirts sorely missed the services of midfielder Mohammad Tauseeq and reserve goalie Ali Amjad as they had been duly handed a ban by the game’s governing body for conduct unbecoming in the high-voltage clash against the Indian team.

There is no doubt that a win over India has always held special meaning for Pakistani teams as well as their fans since the inception of this country, and emotions quite naturally run high whenever the two arch-rivals face off in international sports. Nevertheless, the offensive behaviour of the national team players on Friday was deplorable and cannot be condoned in any way. Besides embarrassing Pakistan hockey itself, the nasty incident stymied the euphoria of a rare victory over India, in India, and compelled Pakistan manager-cum-coach Shahnaz Shaikh to tender an apology to the International Hockey Federation soon after the semi-final. That said, a number of critics have also chastised the federation for succumbing to Hockey India’s threats to boycott all world-ranking events that later induced the world body to ban Tauseeq and Amjad after letting off the two without any penalty earlier in the day. It is also being felt that the hockey federation should have taken notice of the hostile response of a partisan Indian crowd during the semi-final and the aggression shown by the Indian media in the post-match presser that saw both Shahnaz and captain Imran walking out in a huff. The moral of the story, however, is that the lack of players` grooming continues to mar Pakistan hockey and despite the better playing skills displayed by the team this time round, their inconsistency impedes their rise to the top.

Deal on climate change

THE climate change-global warming debate has seen years of contestation. Finally, new resolve seems to be building.

On Sunday, two days into overtime after a fortnight of talks that at one point seemed almost on the verge of collapse, some 190 countries agreed on the building blocks of a new-style global deal, due in 2015, to combat the phenomenon. China and India, which had expressed concern over earlier drafts of the deal because they placed too heavy a burden on emerging economies as compared to the rich, got what they had been demanding: the preservation of the Kyoto Protocol convention that rich countries must lead in the cuts in greenhouse emissions. Matters were helped along by the joint US-China agreement last month to curb emissions. If the resolve holds, governments are to submit their national emission-management plans by the informal deadline of end-March next year, which could form the basis of a global agreement at the Paris summit.

In terms of climate change, it is an unfortunate reality that while the more industrialised countries have done/are doing the most damage, it is the planet as a whole that must pay. Countries such as Pakistan, which might not have significant emission levels because of the low levels of industrialisation, nevertheless stand badly affected, particularly when the availability and efficacy of coping or mitigating mechanisms is factored in. In their own interests, though, such states need to step up to the plate. There are already indications that Pakistan`s climate and weather patterns are changing, such as the floods in recent years. But there seems to be no recognition among policymaking circles that an action plan is required for the future even though Pakistan counts agriculture as its economic base. The country is ignoring harsh realities at its own peril. The fact is that the future will bring, to whatever extent, challenges in water and consequently food availability, which will have an adverse knock-on effect on the population. It is time to start preparing.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

New blood-soaked benchmark

IT was an attack so horrifying, so shocking and numbing that the mind struggles to comprehend it. Helpless schoolchildren hunted down methodically and relentlessly by militants determined to kill as many as quickly as possible. As a country looked on in shock yesterday, the death count seemed to increase by the minute. First a few bodies, dead schoolchildren in bloodied uniforms, then more bodies, and then more and more until the number became so large that even tracking it seemed obscene. Peshawar has suffered before, massively. But nothing compares to the horror of what took place yesterday in Army Public School, Warsak Road. The militants found the one target in which all the fears of Pakistan could coalesce: young children in school, vulnerable, helpless and whose deaths will strike a collective psychological blow that the country will take a long time to recover from, if ever.

In the immediate aftermath of the carnage, the focus must be the grieving families of the dead, the injured survivors and the hundreds of other innocent children who witnessed scenes that will haunt them forever. Even in a society where violence is depressingly endemic and militant attacks all too common, the sheer scale of yesterday’s attack demands an extraordinary effort by every tier of the state and society to help the victims in every way possible. For the survivors, the state can help ensure the best medical treatment, for both physical and psychological wounds, and rehabilitation. All too often, after the initial shock wears off and the TV cameras move on, the level of care and attention given to survivors, drops precipitously. That must not be the case this time.

For the families of the dead, the state can find a way to honour their sacrifices beyond announcing so-called shaheed packages and promising to disburse cheques. It is also incumbent on wider society and the media to ensure that this time the state does more than the bare minimum.

Inevitably, the hard questions will have to be asked and answers will have to be found. Schools are by definition vulnerable, the trade-off between security and access making for a relatively soft target. Yet, vulnerability ought not to mean a disaster on this scale can occur so easily. Where was the intelligence? The military has emphasised so-called intelligence-based operations against militants in recent months, but this was a spectacular failure of intelligence in a city, and an area within that city, that ought to have been at the very top of the list in terms of a security blanket.

Then there is the issue of the operation to find and capture or kill the militants after the attack had begun. The sheer length of the operation suggests the commanders may not have had immediate access to the school’s layout and there was no prior rescue plan in place. Surely army public schools are under high enough risk to have merited some kind of advance planning in case of such an attack. Was that plan in place? Had there been any drills at the school to help the children know what to do in the eventuality of an attack? Who was responsible for such planning? Most importantly, will lapses be caught, accountability administered and future defences modified accordingly? The questions are always the same, but answers are hardly forthcoming.

The questions about yesterday’s attack can go on endlessly. They should. But what about the state’s willingness and ability in the fight against militancy? Vows to crush militancy in the aftermath of a massive attack are quite meaningless. From such events can come the will to fight, but not really a strategy. Military operations in Fata and counterterrorism operations in the cities will amount to little more than fire-fighting unless there’s an attempt to attack the ideological roots of militancy and societal reach of militants.

Further, there is the reality that militancy cannot be defeated at the national level alone. Militancy is a regional problem and until it is addressed as such, there will only be a long-term ebb and flow of militancy, cycles destined to repeat them. Perhaps the starting point would be for the state to acknowledge that it does not quite have a plan or strategy as yet to fight militancy in totality.
Denial will only lead to worse atrocities.

Devolution 'rollback'

IN a country where, for over six decades, the thought process that favours concentration of power at the centre has dominated, devolving responsibilities to the federating units and even further to the third tier has not been easy. The 18th Amendment, passed in 2010, was indeed a landmark piece of legislation which established a more equitable relationship between the provinces and the centre. Yet in the years since the passage of the law, implementation of the devolution process has been slow and there have been several hiccups along the way.

Some observers have even said there are fears of a `rollback` to the pre-2010 order. For example, at a discussion organised by the HRCP in Islamabad on Monday, speakers lamented the fact that `forces` were at work trying to undo the progress made so far.

The presence of the National Curriculum Council was cited as an example of `federal encroachment`, while speakers pointed out that the Council of Common Interests was failing to meet regularly.

There have also been issues with division of resources and funds between Islamabad and the provinces. It has been pointed out that departments with liabilities have been handed over to the provinces, while the centre is reluctant to let go of profitable institutions.

We must unambiguously say that any moves towards the `rollback` of provincial autonomy will prove disastrous. If anything, the provinces need to be given greater responsibility over their affairs without an overbearing centre watching their every move.

Indeed, the state’s structure has been such since independence that the federal bureaucracy may be reluctant to share power with the provinces. But this attitude must change; while the provinces need to coordinate amongst themselves and with Islamabad, the democratic will as embodied by the 18th Amendment needs to be respected. There are surely capacity issues with the provinces, especially Balochistan and Sindh. But considering these units were only given increased powers in 2010, the centre must work with them to build capacity. The provinces themselves must also improve their performance. While complaints of federal interference may be genuine, the provincial administrations need to perform much better where good governance, accountability and service delivery are concerned.

However, there is one key area where devolution of power is concerned which has been ignored in equal measure by both the centre and the provinces: elected local governments. In fact, it would not be wrong to say that apart from Balochistan, provincial administrations have proved to be the greatest stumbling blocks standing in the way of elected local bodies. Demanding the rights of provinces is essential; but so is paving the way through legislation and other administrative measures for an elected third tier of government. Or else, one sort of concentration of power that by the central administration will be replaced by the provincial capitals denying sub-units their democratic rights. The process of devolution must continue unhindered, with the ultimate goal being empowered provinces and elected representatives at the district and sub-unit levels.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

Challenge for politicians

DAY after the deadliest terror attack in the country’s history, the political leadership gathered in Peshawar to focus on the militant threat and, crucially, to develop a unified response.

That Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, PTI chief Imran Khan, former PPP prime minister Raja Pervez Ashraf and sundry other national leaders, including from religious parties, chose to address the media together suggests that at long last the political leadership understands the need for unity in the face of the militant threat. Whatever the complexities of crafting a meaningful and effective anti-militancy plan, no strategy can have any possibility of success if the country’s mainstream political leadership does not own it and fully support it.

For too long, despite several multi-party conferences before, fighting militancy has been seen as the sole responsibility of the party in power, with other political parties either doing little more than paying lip service or, often enough, scuttling the possibility of clarity and unanimity with doublespeak. Now, seemingly stirred by the monstrousness of what happened on Tuesday in Peshawar, meaningful unanimity appears to have been achieved.

Political consensus alone, however, will not create a meaningful strategy. Prime Minister Sharif yesterday announced that a committee under the leadership of Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan will devise a policy in seven days to fight militancy. Perhaps the political leadership meant to sound serious and purposeful, but it is not clear what really can be achieved in seven days that could not be done yesterday at the conference. After all, the government already has a nearly year-old National Internal Security Policy in place. Then, four different parties are running the provincial governments in the country and each of them is intensely familiar with various facets of the militant threat. Finally, the mainstream political parties of the country have attended APCs before on the militant threat and also been briefed in parliament by the military leadership. So why not announce immediate steps and wait seven days? With the hard decisions deferred, it will be even more difficult to maintain a consensus in a week’s time, given that there are fundamental differences among the various sections of the political spectrum on how to define terrorism, let alone how to defeat it. If there is already reason to doubt that a meaningful anti-militancy strategy will emerge in a week’s time, perhaps it can be hoped that the sheer savagery of the Peshawar attack will not allow the usual style of politics to reassert itself so quickly. There was also another important development yesterday: the military leadership’s dash to Kabul for urgent talks. That is key because the country’s leadership has a choice: either develop a full-spectrum, civilian and military response now or allow the military-led response to militancy to continue. As Peshawar so tragically demonstrated, a military-only response to terrorism is not an adequate strategy.

Assault on education

THE atrocity in Peshawar on Tuesday underscores the particular vulnerability of schoolchildren and educational institutions in Pakistan. In essence, schools and the young learners within them are perhaps the most vulnerable of all the `soft` targets on the militants’ hit list. For long, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Fata have witnessed militant violence targeting schools. For example, as per an International Crisis Group report, in the period from 2009 to 2012, about 800 to 900 schools were attacked in KP and the tribal areas.

In most of these incidents the extremists chose to strike empty schools, in a symbolic gesture, without causing many casualties. But perhaps out of frustration, the militant camp has shed any inhibitions about targeting schoolchildren and now has no qualms about slaughtering students, as the Peshawar tragedy shows. Girls’ education has been a particular thorn in the obscurantists’ side. The conflict in the tribal belt has also upset the education of local children in other ways, as thousands of families have fled the region for safer climes. Fata and KP are not the only areas where education has come under attack. A school principal was killed in an incident in Karachi carried out by suspected militants last year, while also in 2013 a terrorist assault on a university bus in Quetta killed a number of female students. This year, too, began on a bloody note, when a suicide bomber targeted a school in Hangu. Were it not for the selfless heroism and sacrifice of young Aitzaz Hasan, a student who confronted the bomber and tackled him, greater carnage could have resulted in the schoolhouse packed with students. Unfortunately, this time around there was no Aitzaz to confront the monsters who stormed the Army Public School.

The militants have declared war on education and by extension on society. Perhaps only Nigeria`s dreaded Boko Haram outfit has a more ferocious anti-education agenda in the murky global militant spectrum. There, of course, needs to be greater security of schools, especially in vulnerable areas. But more than posting a policeman or paramilitary trooper outside every threatened school, a more long-term solution is required. For too long, violent obscurantists have been allowed to publicly spew venom on modern education in Pakistan with barely any reaction from the state. It is time these avowed opponents of learning were taken to task and uprooted in order to allow the youth of this country to build a brighter, literate future.

Attack on media team

THERE`S no argument that Pakistan is, for a variety of reasons, already amongst the most challenging of terrains for journalists to navigate. Even so, the events that took place during the PTI`s `shutdown` of Lahore on Monday mark a new low; the media team of Geo TV, whose management PTI leader Imran Khan has in recent weeks been censuring from the podium, was shamefully harassed.

Party supporters lobbed plastic bottles and gravel on the reporters, one of whom was a woman, raising slogans and making indecent gestures.

This is not the first time PTI supporters have made this particular media house their target consider, for example, the fact that while a showdown was under way between the police and party supporters in Islamabad soon after Mr Khan launched his series of protests, the Geo building was singled out by PTI affiliates to vandalise.

That a female reporter was so poorly treated by supporters of a party that is rightly proud of its ability to attract large numbers of women out on the streets is considered by some to be an anomaly. Yet at another level, the violence is not at all hard to understand.

For months now, the PTI leader has been leading the verbal attacks against particularly this member of the media community, hurling threats and giving ultimatums. While he has stopped short of calling for physical violence to be visited on the owners or employees of the media house, what is the message that the ordinary party supporter and activist walks away with? That media people are legitimate targets, even if their presence at the scene is necessitated by the demands of their profession. While it is true that this particular television channel’s approach to issue or politics-centred journalism is problematic, in no way can assaults such as that by the PTI be justified. It is not enough for party leaders to issue condemnations after violence has already taken place; the PTI leadership must unequivocally emphasise that such attacks are abhorrent.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

IMRAN Khan’s decision to suspend the PTI’s anti-government protests in the wake of the Peshawar carnage is a sensible, compassionate decision that will surely be welcomed by right-minded and rational individuals across Pakistan. The soul-destroying violence in Peshawar on Tuesday was not just an incomprehensible terrorist attack; it was an assault on everything good and decent that the overwhelming majority of this country holds dear. To continue a political campaign in the post-Peshawar environment would have been an abomination, as Mr Khan has rightly recognised. But it could not have been an easy decision and Mr Khan deserves much credit for making what would have been a very hard choice.

Consider that while after four months of protest the PTI was no closer to its goal of ousting the government, the opposition party had succeeded in tapping into a deep vein of discontent with the electoral system and the manner in which the country is being governed by the PML-N. Credit for that must solely go to the PTI, not least because while all other opposition parties had alleged electoral malfeasance in May 2013, none had the courage to demand a cleaner electoral system nor really held the PML-N to account for its various governance shortcomings. Clearly, the PTI would not have come this far without genuine support from sections of the electorate and the public at large. It does appear that when a political leader focuses on serious issues, sections of the public respond in good faith and in the belief that the democratic system can and should be improved. Those individuals, ordinary, everyday Pakistanis, are the real heroes and their voices must not go unheard. The country both deserves and can achieve a fair and transparent electoral system.

Now, the onus of responsibility on the PML-N is greater than ever.

The PTI has called off its protests on the very reasonable conditions that the PML-N establishes a commission of inquiry into alleged electoral fraud in May 2013 and also continues with the process of introducing meaningful electoral reforms for future elections.

Surely, given all that has occurred over the last several months, it is incumbent on the PML-N to step up and do the right thing. A commission with powers of inquiry to the satisfaction of the PTI and in line with the letter and spirit of the law is surely achievable. After Peshawar, it is nothing short of an urgent necessity. For nothing let alone power politics should come in the way of focusing on what needs to be done in the fight against militancy and maintaining the fresh political consensus that militancy must be defeated. There is no reason other than petty politics for an inquiry into May 2013 to be stalled going forward. Imran Khan has shown the country that he can rise above petty politics. Now, the PML-N must do the same.

Death for terrorism

THE atrocities unleashed by the banned TTP in Peshawar on Tuesday have illustrated, horribly, that decisive and cohesive action is required against the monster of militancy.

But while there is justified anger against the perpetrators of the attack on the Army Public School, government action should not take its cue from populist demands that are based more on emotions than reason. It is in this context that we must see Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s decision to rescind the de facto moratorium on capital punishment vis-à-vis convicts in terror-related cases. First, consider how ineffective capital punishment would be in the case of those militants who resort to suicide bombing as their primary weapon of death and destruction. Indoctrinated to the point where the perpetrator does not expect to emerge from the attack alive, how can the death penalty are expected to deter others of his ilk? Secondly, in recent years, domestic and international human rights organisations have repeatedly raised the concern that the high number of people on death row for terrorism-related convictions points to an overuse by Pakistan of its anti-terrorism laws. A joint report released recently by Justice Project Pakistan and Reprieve states that “instead of being reserved for the most serious cases of recognisable acts of terror ... [it is] being used to try ordinary criminal cases [...]”. In such a situation, the lifting of the moratorium will undoubtedly lead to serious miscarriages of justice. Besides, the death penalty will always remain a cruel and inhumane form of punishment, even if those sentenced to die are found guilty of having perpetrated the most barbaric of acts.

At the crossroads where it stands, Pakistan can either attempt to temporarily lighten the pressure by instituting cosmetic measures, or do what is needed: devise a coherent push-back at several tiers, only one of which is the battlefield. Realisation must dawn that matters have gone far beyond physical attacks by the militants, and that the Talibanisation of society is being fanned by those who act as apologists for the killers by justifying their barbaric acts. Their numbers include those representing banned radical groups, from the Lashkar-e-Taiba to the Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan, that are openly operating under new names. Without clamping down on such leaders and groups, no policy can remove their poisonous discourse that is encouraging public opinion to subscribe to conspiracy theories and to turn a blind eye to the enemy within.

Cuba’s victory

TO his credit, in what is indeed a major policy reversal, President Barack Obama had the courage to do away with a five-decade old `outdated approach` and restore diplomatic relations with Cuba, one of the world’s five states still officially communist. Even though Raul Castro, his Cuban counterpart, was subdued in his speech and expected Mr Obama to do more, he nevertheless welcomed the proposed resumption of diplomatic relations something that would not have been possible without a nod from the icon that is his brother, Fidel. While the Vatican and Canada have been involved as facilitators since early last year, it was the release by Havana of the ailing American prisoner Alan Gross that made Washington move. In his televised speech, President Obama was frank enough to admit that he was determined to chart `an even more ambitious course forward`, because America’s policy that sought to topple the Castro regime by means of diplomatic and economic coercion had failed.

For Havana, the move will have definite economic advantages.

Venezuela, which gives aid to Cuba, has been embroiled in an economic crisis because of falling oil prices, making the Castro regime wonder whether Caracas will be able to continue its doles.

Normalisation with America will, therefore, mean at least a partial lifting of the embargo, something to which President Obama referred in his telecast. Credit must be given here to the political acumen and steely nerves of the senior Castro. Only a small strip of water stood between tiny Cuba and the American giant, but Mr Castro never flinched. He was the gainer when the CIA-sponsored Bay of Pigs invasion failed to arouse a popular uprising, making the Castro regime stronger than before. Those were the Cold War days, and he received full backing from the communist world. But even after the Soviet empire had collapsed, Mr Castro showed his mettle and didn't bow. By any standards, Wednesday’s simultaneous announcement by the two presidents is a resounding victory for Cuba.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')

A turning point?

EVEN when they have violated every tenet of humanity, purveyors of hate and obscurantism have long remained virtually unchallenged in Pakistan. Their triumph list ideology has been the bedrock upon which the justification of every atrocity has been based. Even at a seminal moment such as now, in the aftermath of the Peshawar school attack, the collective outpouring of grief found no resonance with Maulana Abdul Aziz, chief cleric of Lal Masjid in Islamabad. Asked for his reaction, he refused to condemn the massacre of students and teachers, seeking instead to explain it away on the grounds of `wrong decisions` taken by the state. His prevarication was greeted with revulsion across society, and on Thursday night an unprecedented protest took place outside Lal Masjid, with participants chanting slogans against Maulana Aziz and lighting candles in memory of the victims. A member of the mosque administration warned them that no further chanting would be tolerated, while police, anticipating a clash, asked the crowd to disperse. An FIR was filed against the participants for violating Section 144. The police also accused them of using `hate speech` against the mosque administration.

But why should we be surprised at this grotesque inversion of culpability? After all, let alone the right wing, even extremists are above the law in this country, able to openly promote their views from the pulpit, from television screens, in the political forum, with utter and complete immunity. Banned organisations have been allowed to resurrect themselves under new names and continue to spew their noxious rhetoric. The state has not merely tolerated these individuals; it has patronised and employed them as a means to further its strategic objectives and shape the national discourse. They are a handy means of fomenting agitation against perceived external threats as and when needed, and for negotiating with terrorists who pose an existential threat to Pakistan. As a result, they have become emboldened enough to sometimes adopt a stance completely at variance with that of the state that has given them succour. A glance at Maulana Aziz`s own recent record is proof of this: he has named the library in his seminary after Osama bin Laden, and voiced his support for the self-styled Islamic State.

As the right wing represented by the likes of Maulana Aziz gradually intimidated society into submission, several progressive voices represented by the likes of Rashid Rehman were silenced through violence. Now that the state finds itself scrambling to construct a befitting response to the tide of extremism that has begun to devour its own, it should take a cue from those who came to Lal Masjid to demand that apologists for extremism be held to account. In fact, it is imperative for the state to seize the moment and craft a counter narrative, one that abjures links with any shade of extremism, politically expedient or otherwise.

Mumbai trial delays

IN a move that bewildered many here, and much of the outside world too, the anti-terrorism court charged with trying Lashkare-Taiba leaders for their role in the November 2008 Mumbai attacks saw fit to grant bail to the principal accused Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi just days after the Peshawar school carnage that so shocked the world this week. While the court may have acted according to the rules and within the letter of the law, there is also a context here that cannot be overlooked. Consider that for five years the trial has remained in limbo, hearings repeatedly adjourned on one pretext or another so why pick this week of all possible weeks to grant bail to Lakhvi? It suggests a tone deafness that at the very least offends common sense at this sensitive, possibly pivotal, moment in the country’s history. Instead of building on the consensus that militancy needs to be systematically eradicated from all corners of the country, the national conversation is being pulled in unwelcome directions.

On the Mumbai-related trials the facts speak for themselves. The Pakistani state itself acknowledged that the attacks were planned and masterminded by individuals based in Pakistan. During the course of the Indian investigation, the state here provided a great deal of evidence to help piece together how the attacks were carried out. Indeed, the ATC trials were triggered by that very process of the Pakistani state investigating and unearthing evidence against the architects of the Mumbai attacks. Lakhvi, a top echelon leader of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba, was at the centre of the evidence pieced together by not just Pakistani authorities, but also Indian and other international investigators. In no normal, fair and independent judicial system would the trial of Lakhvi go nowhere for years before resulting in his bail. The government has rightly acted to keep him in custody for now, but that is only a fire-fighting measure.

What is really needed is for the trials of Lakhvi and his co-accused to be taken up again with a seriousness of purpose and sound legal strategy. For in these Mumbai trials, Pakistan’s overall record in the fight against militancy is also on trial. Both the political and military leadership of the country has stated repeatedly that there is no longer such a thing as a good militant. For that to be true, individuals like Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi cannot be allowed to simply walk away free men.

Economic risks

THE latest review of Pakistan’s economy conducted by the IMF under the ongoing programme is the most candid assessment produced by the lender thus far. After a string of positive reviews, we now have a statement from the Fund’s executive board that warns of `significant risks` facing the fragile recovery. The statement speaks of `possible revenue shortfalls` in the fiscal framework and calls for more purchase of dollars from the spot markets and for `greater exchange rate flexibility`. It says legislation for greater central bank autonomy is crucial, and that the legislation `should conform to international best practices`. It also calls for continued power tariff reforms (a euphemism for tariff hikes) at a time when the government is busy slashing the power tariffs to pass on the benefit of falling oil prices, as well as for greater efficiency in generation through strict implementation of a merit order list for dispatch. Gas prices also need to be hiked, particularly through the gas levy, the Fund says, and producer prices need `rationalisation` (also a euphemism for hikes). The privatisation programme may enjoy strong ownership, but faces challenges due to market conditions.

There is no mention in the statement of the rapid fall in oil prices, and what effect this might have on inflation, power subsidies and the current account. The government is reaping a small windfall in the form of falling oil prices, but the Fund is clearly reluctant to acknowledge any fiscal and forex space that might be opening up as a consequence. Whether or not this is prudence or just a dour take on the state of public finances will become clearer when the Fund releases its more detailed report soon. In the meantime, it’s enough to note that despite windfalls and strengthening reserves, risks to the economy remain serious and continued vigilance over revenues and expenditures is required. Government borrowing from the central bank may have declined, but its shift towards market sources, especially longer tenors and external borrowing, highlights the importance of sound debt management practices as well.

__________________
"But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail." _Shakespeare, 'Macbeth')