Beyond Hafiz Saeed

The Supreme Court’s rejection of the government’s appeal against the release of Hafiz Saeed, leader of Jamaatud Dawa/ Lashkar-i-Taiba, from preventive detention is bound to increase international, and especially regional, criticism of the Pakistani state’s tolerance for certain jihadi factions in the country. Yet, while some of the criticism may be justified, focusing just on the person of Hafiz Saeed and the Lashkar-i-Taiba misses the point.



There is a perception that the establishment has no desire to take on Hafiz Saeed, who was formerly detained under the Maintenance of Public Order ordinance, and the Lashkar at a time when it is fighting militancy in areas bordering Afghanistan. Despite the consistent pressure from India that considers Mr Saeed the architect of the Mumbai attacks in 2008, the government’s failure to produce concrete evidence against him led to the Supreme Court’s upholding the Lahore High Court’s instructions to release him from detention.

However, Mr Saeed’s reprieve needs to be seen in a broader perspective. There have been countless cases where those suspected of being involved in terror attacks, be they against government installations or of a sectarian nature, have been let off. A recent example is the acquittal by the Lahore High Court of two men, allegedly belonging to the Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, who were charged with attempting to assassinate former President Musharraf in 2003. In fact, the overall low conviction rate in Pakistan points to severe deficiencies in the investigation and prosecution process.



What evidence do the judges have to declare a person guilty, when even witnesses decide not to testify out of fear for their lives? This must change if crime is to be tackled effectively. In the case of nabbing terrorists, the legal process needs to be even more foolproof. Without a proper legal framework for dealing with terrorists, more often than not the latter will walk free. Unfortunately, the absence of a strong legal system has led to extrajudicial killings by the law-enforcement forces, which flouts all norms and laws of human rights.

It is tragic that even after so many years of fighting militancy, there does not seem to be a cohesive counter-insurgency strategy at a national level. Fire-fighting seems to be the preferred tactic, leading to apprehensions that without a plan to strengthen the civil administration, including the justice system, in areas recovered from the militants, the latter may be tempted to return. With pressure on Pakistan to enter the North Waziristan minefield, it is imperative that military gains are consolidated through political and administrative measures that discourage militancy.

Wrong priorities

On Monday, officials of the Faqirabad police station, Peshawar, arrested 47 persons from a private plaza with the station house officer as the complainant in the case. Given the fact that the city has been on the frontline of terrorism and violence in recent years, the number of people picked up might have suggested that a significant terror plot had been unearthed or a criminal gang busted. But no.



The police claim that a ‘marriage ceremony’ was under way of a man and a transvestite, which, they say, is why they, along with others in attendance, were arrested. The offences cited in the FIR include sections of the Dancing Act, 1974, and various sections of the Pakistan Penal Code relating to obscene acts in public, rioting and unlawful assembly. The accused say that they were simply attending the birthday party of one of the transvestites.

Whatever sort of ceremony was in progress, it was hardly taking place in public. The PPC section relating to unlawful assembly too cannot be applied in this case since citizens have the right to gather as they please in private so long as they do not carry out criminal acts. Simply put, the police have no business concerning themselves with what people do in their private lives, unless a crime is beyond certainty about to be committed.



There are laws that can be applied to song and dance performances but these too apply to acts in the public arena. They ought not to be misused for persecuting people such as transvestites, who already suffer much victimisation. That the police displayed the accused before the media and reportedly harassed some of the transvestites makes the case all the more shameful. The Peshawar police have been the victims of terrorist attacks themselves. They should have a fair idea of what their priorities should be.

Trust deficit

Post-Thimpu, the governments of India and Pakistan have been making all the right noises about the need for peace in the subcontinent. The current catchphrase on official lips is the ‘trust deficit’, specifically the need to bridge it. The Pakistani position — that all contentious issues causing mistrust between India and Pakistan should be discussed without holding dialogue hostage to terrorism — seems to be a rational one.



The government has sought American assistance to convince India to bring all issues to the table. There is no doubt that terrorism has poisoned relations between the neighbours for long, with the peace process put on ice following the Mumbai attacks in 2008. However, though India’s concerns need to be addressed by Pakistan in this regard, New Delhi should not maintain a rigid posture by insisting on a one-point agenda.

Pakistan needs to clamp down on militant groups operating on its soil. These outfits create international problems for Pakistan when they attack other countries, while also causing physical havoc inside when they turn their guns on the state. Perhaps by utilising the 2006 joint anti-terrorism mechanism both countries can tackle terror together. But building trust is a two-way street.


India must also address Pakistan’s concerns, which include Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek as well as water flowing into Pakistan from India. Local apprehensions regarding the Indian presence in Afghanistan must also be allayed, and New Delhi should convince Islamabad that its involvement with Pakistan’s western neighbour will not be to this country’s detriment.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was right when he said that his country’s full development potential cannot be realised until there is peace with its neighbours. This also rings true for Pakistan. If there is peace, much of the money spent on defence can go towards social sectors to improve the lives of the subcontinent’s poor. But photo opportunities and press statements alone will not ensure peace. Substantive steps need to be taken by both sides. Also, it will be naïve to assume that no attempts will be made to derail the peace process. Elements exist in both countries that benefit from conflict. They must not be allowed to succeed.

The killing of a lawyer at the Lahore Sessions Court on Wednesday constitutes another reminder that police performance remains poor in Punjab even at a time when crime and terrorist acts are on the rise. The lawyer was shot dead in his chambers by a doctor against whom the former had reportedly registered some cases. Although there are conflicting reports on some counts, it is certain that the assailant was armed with two guns and hand grenades. As he fled after the shooting, he was hit by a bullet fired by a police constable and fell down, causing the hand grenade to explode, resulting in his death.

The incident took place in one of the busiest areas of the city where several government buildings, including the Civil Secretariat, are located. It is shocking that such a lapse of security occurred there. A number of government buildings have come under attack in recent times. It must be asked why this has not prompted the law-enforcement authorities to come up with tighter, more effective security arrangements and better emergency response plans for sensitive places. Reportedly, there were only 12 policemen manning the court’s entrances on Wednesday, as opposed to the routine deployment of 20. It must be investigated why this was so.



The rate of virtually every type of crime has gone up in Lahore by an estimated 30 to 40 per cent over the past three years, and this is quite apart from the manner in which the city has increasingly found itself being targeted by terrorists. But police performance and techniques have failed to keep pace. Indeed, the fact that the assailant managed to get hold of hand grenades points towards the force’s ineffectiveness. Changes and improvements are needed immediately if the law and order situation in Lahore is to be prevented from deteriorating further.

Teachers’ protest

A protest drive by government school teachers in Sindh has left educational activities in a number of the province’s districts paralysed for the past several days. The teachers are demanding benefits and allowances granted to educators in the other three provinces which, they say, the Sindh government is not willing to extend to them. Teachers say a summary prepared by a government committee for the grant of benefits has been rejected by the chief minister. The government says the summary is under consideration.



Protests have been staged in various towns and cities across the province, including at the Bhutto mausoleum in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh. However, matters took a nasty turn when the protesting teachers clashed with police in Karachi on Thursday. The police resorted to tear-gas shelling and a baton charge to keep the teachers away from Governor’s House, where they wanted to deliver a memorandum to the governor. On Wednesday, the provincial education minister had criticised the teachers’ associations, for their protest drive, in the Sindh Assembly, saying they had “destroyed education”. He claimed that half the teachers do not show up to take classes, adding that the devolution of the education department to the city and district governments was responsible for the sorry state of education in the province.

In this tug-of-war between the government and teachers, the children of Sindh are suffering the most. Teachers’ representatives have said the protests will continue till the summer vacations and may carry on after the holidays. This is a grim prospect. Educators have every right to peacefully protest and pursue their demands, but this should not be at the cost of children’s education.



A compromise between both sides must be reached. Both the teachers and the government equally share the responsibility of improving the quality of education in Sindh. On the teachers’ part, securing benefits without improving their performance and standards is a questionable goal. On the government’s end, putting the blame for the rot in the education system on past governments will not solve the issue. Concrete measures need to be taken by all stakeholders to improve the falling standards of education in Sindh’s public schools.

FIA report

So it seems that it was Baitullah Mehsud who ordered the killing of Benazir Bhutto after all, at least if an interim report submitted by the FIA in the Rawalpindi anti-terrorism court is to be believed. Two and a half years since the tragic assassination of Ms Bhutto, the state seems to be arguing what was argued within days of the assassination by the Musharraf government: that the TTP was responsible for Ms Bhutto’s death. That is certainly possible. After all, Ms Bhutto was returning to Pakistan with the support of the American and British administrations because they hoped the PPP leader would shore up the fight against militants here. Mehsud had every reason to fear her return.

Yet, that is not the main point here. The main point is this: the PPP-led government in Islamabad has shown a numbing indifference to finding the killers of its leader who had defined the party for over two decades. Does the FIA interim report reflect what the PPP leadership believes? If it does, then what have all the dismissive statements about the possibility that Ms Bhutto was killed by the militants been about? And if the FIA report doesn’t reflect what the PPP leadership believes, then what is it doing to establish the facts credibly and transparently and to lay criminal blame wherever the evidence may take it?

It is remarkable that anyone, least of all those within the PPP, need to be reminded about what Ms Bhutto represented and what her death meant for this country. Ms Bhutto’s assassination in the most horrifying of circumstances was a catastrophic blow to democracy in Pakistan, a fact that even Ms Bhutto’s political rivals readily acknowledge. Here was one of the most famous women in the world, leader of the largest political party in the country, arguably the only one with genuine support across the provinces, killed in the most brutal of circumstances.



At the very least, the country deserves to know who ordered her killing. And yet with her own party in power, little has been done to find her killers. The UN commission was defanged even before it began its work, the follow-up ‘high-powered’ committee set up by the prime minister wrapped up its work and appears to have been disbanded with no further developments made, and now the FIA, which falls under the purview of the interior ministry, is claiming what the Musharraf government had claimed. Can anyone explain what’s going on?

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Culture of intolerance

Sunday, 30 May, 2010


FRIDAY’S gruesome attacks on Ahmadi worshippers in Lahore were a tragic reminder of the growing intolerance that is threatening to destroy our social fabric. Bigotry in this country has been decades in the making and is expressed in a variety of ways. Violence by individuals or groups against those who hold divergent views may be the most despicable manifestation of such prejudice but it is by no means the only one. Religious minorities in Pakistan have not only been shunted to the margins of society but also face outright persecution on a regular basis. Take the police force, which is notorious for terrorising the poor. Even within that section of society, how-ever, it reserves its harshest treatment for non-Muslims, for the simple reason that brutal or coercive acts directed against minorities are even less likely to get policemen into trouble. There is no shortage of more insidious means of discrimination either. To this day many job applications require candidates to state their religion. Has the irrelevance of this query never struck the organisations in question, or is it part of a screening process designed to weed out ‘undesirables’? Now let’s venture down to the basic building blocks of society, from institutions to households. In many middle-class and affluent Muslim homes, separate eating utensils of distinctly poorer quality are reserved for domestic staff. But there’s more: a further distinction in entitlement is made between Muslim and non-Muslim employees.

None of this is surprising in a country whose statute books are riddled with discriminatory laws, where jingoism is drummed into the heads of schoolchildren and where radio and television talk show participants can casually state that “we are all Muslims here in Pakistan”, which is patently not the case. This is a country where a non-Muslim cannot, by law, become president or prime minister. The blasphemy laws continue to be abused to settle personal scores, evade debts owed to non-Muslims and to grab their land by forcing them to flee in the face of violence. The state, meanwhile, remains largely unmoved by the plight of minorities — and that isn’t surprising either for it is a party to this persecution.

Tackling the terrorists who kill almost at will isn’t the only job at hand. The culture of intolerance has become ingrained in Pakistan and wide-ranging measures are required to change our collective mindset. Textbooks need to be revised and the perils of both brazen and covert narrow-mindedness must be publicly debated. It would also help if major religious parties came forward to condemn atrocities such as Friday’s attacks on Ahmadis in Lahore. But that is perhaps asking for too much.

Optimistic projections?

A REPORT in this newspaper on Thursday has suggested that the government will target tax-revenue generation of Rs1,650bn in the next fiscal year, an addition of just over Rs300bn over this year’s revised target. The absolute sum may look large, but there are several factors to consider. One, given the government’s projection of 4.5 per cent growth in GDP next year, the total tax revenue would anyway have risen. Two, given that significant inflation will still be around — the government is projecting an eight per cent inflation rate, but none of its projections have panned out on this front in the last couple of years — tax revenue in absolute terms is bound to rise anyway. This leaves approximately Rs130bn of genuinely ‘new’ revenues that will be added to the tax stream — a start, perhaps, given the disastrously low tax-to-GDP ratio of this country, but there are several big questions marks.

First, direct taxes are expected to go up by only Rs26bn. Absolutely no one in policymaking circles wants to talk about direct taxes, not even the opposition politicians. It is a fact that Pakistan’s tax structure is highly skewed towards indirect taxes, which hurt business and the less well-off more. And yet most of the reforms and fresh measures are focused on precisely the sector which hurts the less well-off the most: indirect taxes such as VAT, federal excise duty and the like. Second, the revenue projections of the new VAT regime may be on the more optimistic side. Doing away with many exemptions, rebates, special concessions, etc should in theory increase the revenue stream from VAT as opposed to GST — but that is based on proper implementation on the ground. Will this happen or will Pakistan once again be forced to revise downwards its revenue projections a few months into the new financial year? Third, even if the problems between Sindh and the centre and on the implementation front can be ironed out, there are concerns that the VAT regime will slowly become riddled with the same problems that plagued GST. Can the government be trusted to withstand pressure from sectors determined to stay out of the tax net?

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Friend or foe?

Monday, 31 May, 2010


It's enough to make one’s heart sink. “The US military is reviewing options for a unilateral strike in Pakistan in the event that a successful attack on American soil is traced to the country’s tribal areas, according to senior military officials,” says a report in The Washington Post. The writer is Greg Miller, one of the Post’s best reporters and considered to have matchless sources in American intelligence and national security circles. America is clearly trying to send a message to Pakistan and the subtext is no longer just ‘do more’: it’s ‘do more, or else’.

The questions here are endless. If there is an attack on American soil and it is traced back to Pakistan, would it not also indicate a failure of American security and intelligence circles?

If zero tolerance is the game, should American officials also not be in the firing line, metaphorically speaking of course, in the event that the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, the Department of Homeland Security, the Director of National Intelligence, etc., all fail to prevent an attack? With these deliberate leaks to the press, is the American security establishment not flirting with danger domestically? The American public is being primed to demand some action against Pakistan in the event of a terrorist strike. If the trend continues, it will be more difficult for American politicians to resist launching strikes inside Pakistan even if they judge that there is no need — the demands of a public trained to see Pakistan as the problem may be too great at that point.

What are the long-term gains versus the costs of such a strike? Could the US realistically launch strikes inside Pakistan without expecting a severe backlash here, from the security establishment, the public, the politicians and the non-state actors? It would be absurd for America to try and position itself as a friend and well-wisher of Pakistan if it were at the same time launching unilateral strikes inside this country (whatever the official line, the drone strikes are not considered ‘unilateral’ by either side). And what message does this send to other countries? Could India argue it has a similar ‘right’ to launch attacks inside Pakistan? Before continuing down this road, American officials need to pause and think harder about the ramifications.

Peace in Swat

On Thursday, a statement released by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan welcomed the restoration of peace in Swat, citing the reports of a fact-finding team. This is encouraging and testifies to the Pakistan Army’s efforts since the military operation was launched last year. However, lasting stability hinges on several factors and requires more than the efforts of the army alone.



First, the security forces must refrain from adopting a ham-fisted approach. No illegal practices should be associated with the army. Yet the HRCP fact-finding team says that the security forces were in some areas committing human rights violations. These include extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions and the forced displacement of families of suspected militants. This is counterproductive and must cease since it tarnishes the image of the army while alienating the local people.

Secondly, the role played by the army in maintaining peace must slowly but surely be handed over to non- military agencies such as the police. The task of infrastructure development and rehabilitation must also be entrusted to civi- lian bodies. That the army repaired and rebuilt over 200 schools is praiseworthy, for instance, but sends the signal that civilian organisations are not in charge. The confidence of the people will not be restored unless the region appears safe enough for the army to be seen to be taking a back seat.



Third, the region needs a more efficient justice system. This will not only restore confidence in the state but also reduce the need for illegalities such as arbi-trary detention and extrajudicial killings. Only 57 of the nearly 3,000 cases registered against suspected militants since May 2009 have so far been decided, and there have been three convictions. This is unsurprising since there is only one anti-terrorism judge for the seven districts of Malakand division. Such deficiencies must be addressed if peace in Swat is to be sustainable.

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

While China stands by

THERE is only one country with any chance of getting through to North Korea. That is China, the North’s major supplier of aid, food and oil. As tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to spiral — frighteningly — upward, China is refusing to get invol- ved. China has only one concern: avoiding any crisis that might unleash huge refugee flows. Relations between the Koreas have threatened to explode since last week when the South accused the North of torpedoing a South Korean warship, the Cheonan.

What makes this so especially dangerous is that North Korea’s erratic leader, Kim Jong-il, is in a power struggle to ensure that his youngest son succeeds him. (American intelligence officials suspect Mr Kim may have ordered the attack to prove his willingness to take on South Korea and its western allies.) North Korea often blusters, but it has gone much further this time. Over the last few days, it has cut almost all ties and agreements with the South and threatened war if Seoul proceeds with threatened sanctions. On Thursday, it severed a naval hot line that was supposed to prevent clashes in disputed waters….

China needs to stop covering for its client and join in a United Nations Security Council statement that condemns the North’s behaviour. Privately, Beijing should make clear to North Korea that any future acts of aggression will result in a cut-off of aid. The United States, South Korea and Japan, which have taken a strong stand against the North, also must leave some room for Pyongyang to back down. The two Koreas … need to finally set a demarcation line in the West Sea where the Cheonan was attacked and sank. China could do real good if it worked with the United States to bring the two Koreas to the negotiating ta ble. — (May 27)


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The bigger challenge (30th of May 2010)

IF you count Pakistan’s afflictions, they will be many. But the two perennial problems which continue to haunt Pakistan are a fragile economy, resulting in persistent poverty, and political instability. Let us examine the poverty issue afresh.

Our continuous underdevelopment is an enigma. From the status of a high-growth economy, the country abruptly comes to the brink of disaster. This phenomenon is repeated again and again.

In 2010, Pakistan once again finds itself on the brink of a serious economic crisis. Currently, our economy is dogged by high inflation and rising unemployment placing the bulk of the population under tremendous pressure. After having metaphorically ‘broken the begging bowl’ several times, we are once again in the clutches of the International Monetary Fund and are finding it difficult to survive unless the promised tranches are released on schedule. Our foreign and domestic debt is at an all-time high and about half our revenue income is spent on debt-servicing.

Our economic managers are certainly working diligently to put the economy back on track and rescue us from the current crisis. The best-case scenario is that they will succeed in reducing our deficit to acceptable levels and achieve a growth rate of five per cent in the next three years. However, the question is: will it result in steady and sustainable development? Will it improve the lot of the poor, the disadvantaged and the marginalised? If this did not materialise despite a six per cent growth rate for three spells of 10 years each, how will it be possible now?

At the time of Pakistan’s creation, despite significant administrative and financial constraints, the country showed the promise of early take-off. All indicators were positive and the nation felt proud when the global community cited Pakistan as a model for development. The GDP growth rate which was recorded at 10.2 per cent in 1953-54 sustained itself at 9.4 per cent in 1964-65 and registered 8.4 per cent in 1984-85.

When calculated for a period of 30 years, the average growth rate stands at 6.5 per cent (not in one spell, but intermittently). It was not unreasonable to expect that this high rate of growth would provide sustainable development with a solid foundation for increased quality of life for the common man. However, in retrospect, this growth strategy did not produce the expected results. Neither was poverty reduced drastically nor did social indicators improve significantly. In addition, the fast pace of industrialisation could not be sustained.

The optimists will argue that in some sectors Pakistan has shown tremendous improvement compared to the bleak picture of 1947. Agreed, but in terms of per capita income and social development the country is still at the bottom. It is a matter of abiding shame that even after six decades of independence and a fairly good start, 73 per cent of Pakistanis survive on $2 a day, 50 per cent are illiterate and 25 per cent do not have enough to eat. Housing and sanitation conditions and rural water supply are abysmal to say the least.

There has been a constant debate amongst development economists and policymakers in the developing world about the possible routes leading to poverty alleviation. Since the mid-1950s, wisdom has dictated that newly independent countries should focus on achieving high GDP growth rates. Poverty would be reduced automatically as the fruits of growth would ‘trickle down’ to the poor after initially being enjoyed by the rich.

This phenomenon, though articulate in theory, did not materialise either in the case of Pakistan (despite high growth rates over three decades) or for almost any other developing country.

The other group which includes people like Nobel laureate Amartya Sen and Bimal Jalan, ex-governor of the Reserve Bank of India, argue that poor countries need not wait to get rich before they can improve the living conditions of their citizens.

Public intervention in education, health and nutrition is crucial for increasing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality. This was the case in the West and Japan in the first half of the last century (even during periods when GDP growth was low or negative). In more recent periods this has also been true of China, Sri Lanka and the Indian state of Kerala.When talking about the experiences of various countries, both rich and poor, Sen stresses on the importance of good policies. His conclusion is that it is possible for a poor country to do more for its people, even if its income is growing slowly, than a rich country.

In Pakistan’s case, we can clearly see that poverty and social underdevelopment are neither accidental nor do they occur because of natural cau ses. It is a political issue and the result of misconceived policies that our successive governments have followed consistently for the last several decades. For the last 25 year, poor governance has added a deadly dimension to our existing problems.

The challenge for our economic advisors and policymakers is to learn from past mistakes and realise that the time for conventional policies is over. This is all the more necessary because our current planning and development paradigm is deeply flawed. In social sectors it does not include people in decision-making nor does it allow them to be equal partners in the execution and financing of schemes.

Secondly, for education, health and family planning, overall allocations are no doubt low, but our main problem is not merely shortage of funds. The main question is how we use them. It is basically a management issue.

Most people agree that Pakistan is suffering from ‘institutional exhaustion’ and one can see that the delivery system is so poor that the devised plans do not accomplish the goal. The need is to learn from successful approaches within and outside the country and see how things can be improved under the given circumstances.

The incumbent government may claim that it has taken a number of steps to improve the lot of the poor, but it is time to go beyond the Benazir Income Support Programme, Waseela-i-Haq, Baitul Maal and zakat doles. Even if they reach the poor, they provide only temporary relief. From ad hocism we must move towards steady, sustainable development.

Orakzai Agency

Thursday, 03 Jun, 2010


Coas’ visit to Orakzai Agency marks the successful conclusion of operations in the Agency,” according to an ISPR press release on Monday. This would have come as a surprise to many, and for different reasons. First, most Pakistanis were probably not even aware an operation had been under way in Orakzai, so low key have the military actions been in comparison to the high-profile operations in Swat and South Waziristan. Second, reports from the ground, scarce as they are, suggest that no such thing has happened, that operations are continuing and that in two of Orazkai’s three tehsils, central and upper, operations have not even begun yet.

Some background first. Following Operation Rah-i-Nijaat in South Waziristan, a number of militants who had made good their escape arrived in Orakzai. This eventually led to military operations being conducted in parts of Orakzai; first an aerial campaign was launched and then a ground-cum-air offensive against pockets of militants began in March. But it appears the army miscalculated the militants’ strength and what was supposed to be a two-week end-stage operation got dragged out and higher-than-expected casualties were suffered. Fast forward to the first day of June and the army is now claiming success in Orakzai and says that IDPs will be able to return to their homes shortly. Yet, even in the lower tehsil where operations have been conducted, IDPs have until very recently been discouraged from returning home because militants may slip back in with the locals.



Therein lies a great difficulty that the army has struggled to overcome: moving from the ‘clear’ phase of counter-insurgency to the ‘hold’ stage, so that the ground can be laid for the ‘build’ and ‘transfer’ stages. From Bajaur to Mohmand and Bara to FR Peshawar, the phenomenon has repeated itself: operations by security forces to clear out an area are deemed a ‘success’ only to see militants sneak back in the weeks and months that follow. Sometimes forces are withdrawn from one area to focus on another trouble spot, leaving a vacuum in the first area which is soon filled by militants, as has happened in FR Peshawar after security forces were sent from there to deal with militants in Kala Dhaka, Mansehra.

What also makes the claim about success in Orakzai doubtful is geography. The Khyber-Orakzai-Kurram border areas have long been centres of militancy. If Orakzai is clear, then by that logic the Tirah area in Khyber and the east of Kurram should be clear too. However, the evidence suggests otherwise. The army needs to clarify what the position in Orakzai Agency is and what can be expected in the weeks ahead.

Growing corruption

Transperancy International Pakistan’s National Corruption Perception Survey 2010 makes for grim reading. It says corruption in Pakistan has increased by Rs28bn in one year, while 70 per cent of Pakistanis perceive the present government to be more corrupt than the previous one. These figures should serve as a wake-up call to those in power as being an elected government the rulers will have to face the anger of voters when the next national elections are held and if the current state of affairs persists.



Where the provinces are concerned, Khyber Pakthunkhwa has earned the dubious honour of being the most corrupt government. The police department is the most corrupt sector, while the power sector comes in second. Several other public sectors are also reportedly involved in financial malpractices.

Corruption is nothing new in Pakistan. However, ever so often we are given reminders that the situation is getting worse. The report also says that almost no funding has been received from the multinational Friends of Pakistan group in the last two years due to the country’s questionable credibility. Of course, even friends will no longer oblige us if we do not change our profligate ways. Pakistan has international obligations to fight corruption. However, the state’s primary duty is to its citizens. Demands that the judiciary and armed forces submit themselves to accountability need to be heard, while the bureaucracy and all public officials should also be made accountable.



Accountability is key here: if the state — particularly its upper echelons — is corrupt, it gives a cue to ordinary citizens to bend or break the law for their benefit. Accountability should start at the top. Corruption is eating away at this country’s vitals. Swift and judicious steps need to be taken to ensure clean government if the parasitic culture of corruption is to be done away with.

Unanimous condemnation

The United States’ decision not to veto Tuesday’s Security Council resolution serves to highlight the international community’s anger over Israel’s unprovoked attack on the Gaza peace armada. Condemning this dastardly attack, the 15-member council called for a “prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation” into the Israeli navy action that led to 10 civilian deaths on board ships that carried nothing but food, medicines, toys and construction material for the Gazans, who have been groaning under the Israeli blockade for the last three years. The 700 or so people on board were drawn from all over the globe, and they had no other mission save that of mitigating the sufferings of Gaza’s 1.5 million people.



Israel knew all along the purpose of the peace flotilla and the nature of people and goods on the ships, but that it still chose to attack this humanitarian mission testifies to the excessive use of force that has always characterised its policies towards the Palestinians. No wonder, the UN’s executive arm called the Israeli raid a “military operation” and demanded that all peace workers and the ships be released. Significantly, America supported the council’s call for a “credible” investigation and demanded “foreign participation” in the probe. Talking to reporters Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Israeli investigation into the raid must conform to the criteria laid down by the UN resolution.

The world must not forget that the Israeli attack and the deaths on the peace convoy are only a symptom of what ails the Middle East — it is the continuation of the denial of the Palestinian people’s right to live in peace and honour on their soil. This month sees the completion of 43 years of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. Throughout these eventful decades, Israel has defied every attempt by the international community to give up what doesn’t belong to it and agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. The Council resolution did not fail to emphasise this point when it said only a two-state solution could give peace to the holy land.

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Federal budget

Pakistan’s economic problems are persistent, deep and structural, but, traditionally, federal budgets contain a host of small-bore measures — solutions, such as they are, dwarfed by the scale of the challenges.



This year, despite the promise of a new, more realistic and tough-minded approach, the budget speech of Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh was not very different in substance from many of his predecessors’. True, in some, small ways the finance minister has tried hard to make concessions and give relief where possible. The price of vegetable oil and ghee, a key cooking input and a major source of calorie intake for the poor, ought to come down after a cut in the import duty. People at the lowest end of the salaried class will benefit from an increase in the income tax exemption limit. The price of some medicines should come down following new concessionary import measures.

Yet, Mr Sheikh was effectively conducting what should be a financial exercise while wearing a political straitjacket. Tasked with balancing revenues with expenditures, he, like virtually all of his predecessors, was not given the authority to establish either desirable levels of spending or revenue. Start with spending. Provinces and centre are estimated to spend Rs3,529bn during the next financial year, an increase of over 10 per cent over the present year’s figure. Why? No explanation was given, though in the days ahead the country will no doubt be told about security expenses, inflation-related salary increases, etc. Arguably, some of those explanations will be justified. But in the face of some necessary and inevitable expenditure increases, why has no attempt been made to make substantive cuts where they can be made? It is not enough to simply freeze non-salary current expenditure, as Mr Sheikh pledged.



Islamabad is chock-full of various federal government-funded agencies, institutes and centres few Pakistanis have ever heard of. Why not at least announce a rationalisation of government-funded boondoggles? Given the government’s refusal to clean up its own house first, it is perhaps too ambitious to have hoped for some sort of explanation on military expenditures. But what a political government cannot ask, an ordinary taxpayer can: with extraordinary counter-insurgency demands on the military, has it made any attempt to rationalise its other expenditures, to trim the fat? All tax-paying Pakistanis are told is that things like the largest military exercises in over two decades conducted earlier this year are ‘necessary’ and in the ‘national interest’.

Pakistan’s most serious problem, though, is on the revenue side of things. The government spends twice as much as it earns in tax revenue, a scarily unsustainable state of affairs. More tax revenue must be raised, it must be raised urgently and it must be raised from people and sectors that have connived with governments past to stay out of the tax net. The finance minister and his team are aware of this, but here is where the political straitjacket is doing the most damage. On Saturday, Mr Sheikh told parliament: “The tax measures being proposed by the government are fair, just and equitable guided by the ‘ability to pay’.” The finance minister would have been aware that his statement is thoroughly untrue. First, no measures to wean the state off its reliance on indirect taxes, which hurt the poor, and towards direct taxes were announced. Second, even though it is a provincial matter, a true ‘ability to pay’ approach would have meant the federal government announcing it will lead the way on the imposition of tax on agriculture. Nothing was said on either front. But even within the unjust, sales-tax oriented tax regime, there are some serious questions marks. The delay in the switch over to VAT until at least Oct 1 could jeopardise revenue projections as a change midstream could lead to a dip in projected revenues. If the budget deficit increases — already projected at a staggering Rs685bn — the fiscal mangers may opt for the usual path, notwithstanding the pledges by Mr Sheikh yesterday: development expenditure could be curtailed.

Soon to be forgotten in the world of the daily news cycle is the Economic Survey released on Friday. It reads in part, “The prudent course for policy in the near term remains the pursuit of greater fiscal consolidation through domestic resource mobilisation, in conjunction with reducing the size of government, and improving the efficiency of public-sector spending.” Unhappily, a day later, the government appears to have ignored its own advice while announcing the budget.

Poverty of thought

Ours is a country where a handful gorge while tens of millions can’t get one square meal a day. The income disparity in Pakistan is shocking: in the rural areas, palatial havelis abut the dwellings of peasants who for generations have never stepped inside a school and live a life of virtual slavery. They are indebted to the landlord, in perpetuity, and can never escape the cyclical poverty that was the lot of their grandfathers’ and with which they must now cope forever.



The situation may be marginally better in urban Pakistan but not by much. Mansions sit right next door to slums but very few people find that odd or unsettling. It’s just taken for granted. Somehow extreme poverty is acceptable in this country, as is obscene wealth. It has somehow become ingrained in the collective mindset that misery is a fact of life that can be airily dismissed because “those people” are used to it. The rich can talk glibly because they eat three meals a day, own their homes for the most part, hire the poor at shockingly low rates to do their household chores and can turn to generators or tankers when there is no electricity or water.

A recent Swiss study has found that over 48 per cent of Pakistanis are food insecure. The number of districts believed to be facing ‘extreme’ food insecurity has more than doubled between 2003 and 2009, while the number of food-secure districts has fallen by 14 per cent. The human misery aside, any right-thinking person should also spare a thought for where this hunger-driven helplessness will lead us. Already, parents who can’t feed their children are turning to madressahs where their kin are brainwashed into believing that the doctrine of hate is the final message.

Poverty must be acknowledged. No country can live with itself while abusing the basic human rights of millions of its fellow citizens. Pakistanis do not deserve to live in hunger and poverty, and it is clear that the situation is becoming worse with each passing year. The ranks of the newly poor are swelling. Parents are pulling their kids out of schools because they can either feed them or educate them. They can’t do both. Naturally this leads to resentment and the production of a whole new cadre of radicalised youth that cannot pinpoint its place in society. Disoriented, these young men may be attracted towards the kind of extremist ideas that are tearing this country apart. A country cannot hope to survive if it denies its people so basic a right as food. Only insurrection can follow and that rebellion, when it happens, will be exploited by people of obscurantist bent.

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Tertiary admissions

A case in which the federal ombudsman had recently ruled in favour of a student has brought into focus a problem which many students face every year when applying for admission to tertiary-level institutions. The student, who first got admission to a university in Islamabad but later opted for another in Karachi when he succeeded in getting admission there, had sought the federal ombudsman’s help in getting a refund of his admission fee — $11,420 — from the university in Islamabad. The federal ombudsman’s ruling, upheld by the president, should be welcomed by many students who face this problem every year.



Students seeking admission to tertiary-level institutions in Pakistan apply to several institutions — with different deadlines. They find themselves in a dilemma when they first get an offer of admission to an institution which is not their first preference. They have no way of knowing whether they will be accepted by the preferred institution and feel forced to take up the admission offer at hand and pay the required charges. But later if the institution of their choice grants them admission, they face losing the money they had earlier paid.

Students would not have to face this problem if all tertiary-level institutions — universities as well as medical colleges — had a common annual admission deadline. Alternatively, a method could be adopted to streamline applications so that even if institutions have different admission dates, students would be informed simultaneously of the decision of institutions where they have applied so that they can decide where they want to study. Britain has solved the problem by establishing a central body through which all local and foreign applications for admission to any of its tertiary-level institutions are processed. While the federal ombudsman’s ruling is to be hailed, failure to come up with a permanent solution to the above problem will aggravate matters.

More responsibility

For decades the provinces have accused the centre of holding on to most of the tax revenues. They have cited rigid fiscal centralisation as a major reason for their inability to provide quality public services — healthcare, education, potable water, transport, roads, etc — to the people. The transfer of insufficient funds to the provinces under the National Finance Commission in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s, for example, compelled them to borrow substantial sums from Islamabad for development. Their financial position deteriorated with the accumulation of massive debts. The quality of public services, limited mostly to urban areas, suffered.



Though the provincial share under the NFC went up significantly in terms of absolute numbers in the last decade due to rising tax collection, it didn’t benefit every province equally. Punjab was the major beneficiary while Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa suffered the most. The war on terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and an insurgency in Balochistan put further burden on the economies of the two most under-developed provinces. Sindh was also unhappy with the mechanism of the inter-provincial distribution of funds. It was in this backdrop that the seventh NFC award was finalised.

The new award restricts the centre’s share in the tax revenues to 42.5 per cent from the existing 52 per cent apart from changing the basis for the horizontal distribution of funds. The logic is that the provinces are closer to the people and require greater funds to provide better services. They must be rid of financial worries especially when the abolition of the Concurrent List will put additional financial burden on them. The provincial share under the NFC for the next year is set to surge by 58 per cent to Rs1.033tr. The change in the formula for the horizontal division of funds means that even the share of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan is set to grow substantially. If the government is able to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13 per cent by 2013, the provincial share will spike further in absolute terms.

As Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh said on Sunday it will now be the provinces’ responsibility to provide quality public services and security. The increased financial transfers will take away from them the luxury of blaming the centre for the unavailability or poor quality of the socio-economic infrastructure. They also have to improve their systems and processes to ensure the effective spending of funds. The people will be closely watching the provincial governments. On top of that, the provincial authorities will be expected to transfer more funds to local governments. After all, local governments are even closer to the people.

After Phet

Cyclone Phet came and went. Luckily, it had lost much of its intensity as it continued on its trajectory along the coast of Balochistan and Sindh and did not cause the large-scale devastation feared earlier. By Monday, the Met office had downgraded Phet to a “well-marked low-pressure area” hovering over the Indian state of Rajasthan. It added that there was little chance of heavy rain in Sindh anymore. But it was not completely smooth sailing for the coastal belt.



Several deaths were reported in Karachi while power had still not been restored to parts of the metropolis by Monday evening. Many areas of Thatta and Badin — where the storm made landfall — also remained inundated. Yet it seems Balochistan has borne the brunt of the stormy weather. Although there were no reports of fatalities as people were evacuated from the vulnerable areas, the material damage has been considerable.

The torrential rains and gusty winds accompanying Phet tore along the Makran coast, particularly affecting Gwadar and Lasbela districts. Power supply, which had been disrupted in many coastal towns as the storm struck, has not been restored, while countless houses have collapsed. Certain areas are reportedly under four feet of water. Dozens of boats in Gwadar have also been damaged. Contact with the affected areas of Balochistan is also difficult as key roads and bridges are either damaged or have been washed away.

Though all the affected areas in Sindh and Balochistan need attention, the latter province requires a little extra effort on the government’s part. Claims of neglect following the far more destructive cyclone of 2007 are still fresh in the people’s mind. The inattention of the past must not be repeated or it will give disgruntled elements the chance to exploit the situation. The prime minister’s promise of aid should be fulfilled through immediate action and aid. Speedy reconstruction and relief efforts should be ensured. There is also a need for officials to come up with a long-term plan that can minimise the risk to settlements from the havoc that natural disasters wreak.

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Building trust

Visiting Quetta on Monday, Prime Minister Gilani spoke of the government’s commitment to taking concrete steps to close ‘the chapter of atrocities’ committed in the province over the last many decades. He also conceded that because of the excesses and missteps of past regimes, there now existed a trust deficit between the people of the province and the government at the centre. The problem has been identified — yet what steps the government actually takes is of pivotal importance. These steps are still unclear.

True, this government has introduced a number of changes that will directly and indirectly benefit the country’s largest but most underdeveloped province. The Aghaz-i-Haqooq-i-Balochistan package, the incorporation of gas royalty, the National Finance Commission award, the abolishment of the Concurrent Legislative List through the 18th Amendment and increased provincial autonomy are all encouraging steps. Fully implemented they are likely to go some way towards assuaging Balochistan’s doubts about the centre’s sincerity. Their timely and effective implementation must therefore be achieved without delay. Answering a question about provincial autonomy, for example, the prime minister said that an inter-provincial coordination committee would meet soon. The 18th Amendment too is under judicial review. But meanwhile, the situation in Balochistan is deteriorating fast, as is evidenced by a sharp increase in targeted killings and attacks on the law-enforcement apparatus. The province has become a simmering cauldron of resentment on various counts and stands in danger of splitting along ethnic, political and nationalist fault-lines. The government will only be making the situation worse if it delays fulfilling its pledges.

The government has a long way to go before the doubts and suspicions of Balochistan’s people can be laid to rest. First, the issue of the disappeared — which is fast reaching alarming proportions — must be addressed. Despite the constitution of various investigative and judicial commissions and committees, we have seen little real progress. Few people have been traced; it has not been conclusively proved or disproved whether the security apparatus is involved and no one has been called to account. Further, the province needs investment, infrastructure development and the effective harnessing of its resources with the benefits flowing directly to the population. Meanwhile, the government can begin to demonstrate its commitment to Balochistan’s uplift by taking urgent steps to rehabilitate families whose lives were disrupted by Cyclone Phet and by rebuilding the damaged infrastructure. The inattention the province has suffered in the past, if repeated, will give extremist elements a chance to exploit the situation. Extra effort by the government, on the other hand, would send out all the right signals.

Bane of bonded labour.

The recent bonded labour stakeholders’ conference in Lahore has done well to put this social evil under the spotlight. The participants displayed considerable understanding of the socio-economic factors that have given rise to this crime — that is how it must be described because Pakistan has a law banning bonded labour.



The Bonded Labour System (Abolition) Act, 1992, and the Bonded Labour System (Abolition) Rules, 1995, should leave no one in doubt that the treatment meted out by the kiln ownersto their workers is illegal. However, much more needs to be done to raise awareness of the plight of bonded workers and to hold those who perpetrate abuses on them to account. According to a government survey there are over one million kiln workers who can be termed as bonded labourers. They are not only underpaid by their employers, they are also exploited in other ways. For example, they are extended loans on oppressive terms that deprive them even of the hope of a better life.

The recommendations made by the conference are logical and address the underlying issues that give rise to this problem, namely, poverty and the acute need for social security protection. Hence it is valid to suggest that kiln workers be provided health cover and their access to zakat, food stamps and the Benazir Income Support Programme be facilitated. But these are no more than temporary measures for a problem that runs deep and is rooted in decades of exploitation. For instance without providing literacy training to workers and education to their children and without enforcing the minimum wages law no long-term solution can be found. Such measures must be supported by the state that should seek to end the misery of bonded labourers by securing their freedom while also taking to task all those who perpetuate this crime

A check on torture

The ratification by Pakistan of the Covenant of Civil and Political Rights and the United Nations Convention against Torture must be welcomed. It is hoped these international instruments, particularly the convention against torture, will help check the increasingly brutal trends that are prevalent in society.



However, merely signing or ratifying treaties is not enough. The government must demonstrate it has the will to implement the spirit of this convention. Torture is commonplace in Pakistan, with the police and security agencies using it as an instrument of policy. The police normally extract confessions through torture while those picked up by intelligence outfits also receive deplorable treatment. But it is not just organs of the state that are indulging in torture. Women and children are easy targets for abuse in this society, while corporal punishment in schools and madressahs, domestic violence and abuse of household staff also fall within the broad definition of torture.Torture is already prohibited by Article 14 of the constitution. Signing the convention should force the rulers to take practical steps to eliminate this evil practice. The government should harmonise the protocols of the convention with the country’s laws. But ending torture in Pakistan is an uphill task. The mindsets that encourage brutality have to change first before there can be any significant improvement. It is the state’s obligation to change the culture of brutality; only then can citizens be expected to behave differently.

It must be noted that Article II of the convention says that under “no exceptional circumstances whatsoever” can torture be justified. This includes “war, internal political instability or any other public emergency”. Considering the state is at war with militants, it is increasingly important that these guidelines be followed. If the government is serious about implementing the convention, then ‘forced disappearances’ and other such unsavoury practices must end. It is imperative that action is taken against those who use terror as a tactic. But even in these testing times the civil and human rights of all — including suspected militants — must be respected and legal channels must be used to bring the guilty to justice.

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.

Convoy attack

The attack on the Nato convoy outside Islamabad on Tuesday night ought to have set alarm bells ringing. The incident is not a one-off. Last week, a policeman was killed and another injured in an attack on a police check post on the Islamabad highway; the attackers escaped after abandoning their motorcycle. Coincidence or the first signs of a disturbingly familiar pattern — the creeping assault by militants on a new target? What’s especially worrying is the number of attackers involved in the attack on the convoy: the attackers escaped on at least two vehicles and six motorcycles.



As usual questions about intelligence-gathering and security have to be asked. Nato convoys have long been a target of militants and Islamabad is supposed to be the highest of high-security zones. How, then, was such an attack possible on the outskirts of Islamabad? Nobody expects a zero rate of failure; some attacks are inevitable. But such a brazen attack? Where was the security for the convoy manned by Pakistani drivers and their assistants? Surely the attackers should not have been able to overwhelm the target with such ease, nor should they have been able to escape. Security in the area is the responsibility of the Punjab police, which has had a less than stellar record of late.

That the attack took place at all points to a broader failure: that of intelligence-gathering. Again, it is impossible to expect every militant cell in every part of the country to be broken up before any incident takes place. Counter-terrorism operations are a work in progress. But it appears that the work is not progressing fast enough. After each terrorist incident, dozens of ‘suspects’ are rounded up. Assuming that some of them may have information that could lead to militant groups, why do the intelligence agencies not already have the information they believe the suspects may be holding? It is hard not to believe that perhaps the intelligence-gathering process is still too reactive and not proactive enough, with intelligence agencies tending to be several steps behind terrorist cells rather than one step ahead.

A forceful response will be needed by the Punjab and capital territory administrators in the days ahead if Islamabad is to be spared a new round of violence. It’s not that the lives and property of Islamabad’s denizens are more important; lives lost and property damaged anywhere in the country are just as appalling as losses suffered in the capital. However, attacks in or near the capital are psychologically more damaging and are precisely the reason the terrorists will continue to try and target it. They must not be allowed

Shunned by friends

The current wave of international anger over Israel’s attack on a peace armada has two distinct features. One, the US, whose diplomacy is always at Israel’s service, had no choice but to take note of the extent of the world community’s mood over the May 31 crime and refrain from vetoing the Security Council resolution condemning the attack. Two, on Tuesday, Turkey was the spirit behind Israel’s unanimous condemnation by the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia summit in Istanbul. Turkey, a Nato member, has been Israel’s only friend in the region.



It was among the countries that recognised Israel immediately after Britain pulled out in 1948, and — often to the consternation of its Arab neighbours and the Islamic world in general — maintained a policy of strict neutrality in the Arab-Israeli conflict. It also has a military relationship with the Jewish state, and the two countries hold joint military drills. In fact, the assumption of power by the AKP with its Islamist credentials made no difference to Ankara’s Middle East policy, and the two continued to have fruitful relations.

The turning point in ties between Ankara and Tel Aviv came when Israel’s land and air attack on the Gaza Strip in the winter of 2008-09 left a minimum of 1,400 Palestinians, 40 per cent of them civilian, dead. The world was aghast at the brutality of the Israeli blitz that included the use of the white phosphorous agent by its artillery, besides the attacks on a mosque at prayer time and on a building which the Israelis knew was a refuge centre.



These crimes against humanity were condemned by the international rights agencies, but America refused to vote for the UN resolution calling for a halt to the butchery. In fact Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rang up President Bush and virtually ordered him to tell Condoleezza Rice to abstain. This time, however, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government failed to get Washington on its side. The Likud government should try to fathom why some of Israel’s recognised friends have found it impossible to defend its criminal assault on the Gaza peace flotilla.

Political ambitions

The All-Pakistan Muslim League, a political party with former military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf as its head, was launched in Karachi on Tuesday. Now that he is no longer in the army, he is welcome to join Pakistani politics. However, the former dictator — currently living in London and reportedly making a considerable amount on the international lecture circuit — must be prepared to face possible charges against him if he returns to Pakistan.



There is great resentment against him in Balochistan with regard to the army operation and the killing of Akbar Bugti, while some sections want Gen Musharraf to answer for the Lal Masjid fiasco. Given half a chance, supporters of Nawaz Sharif would also love to hold him to account. Pervez Musharraf claims he has a large number of fans on Facebook. But does this self-proclaimed conquest of cyberspace match the reality? While his elected successors may have helped fulfil the general’s prophecy of ‘après moi le deluge’, are the people of Pakistan willing to give the retired army chief another chance after nearly a decade of military rule that saw stage-managed democracy? Also, how successful will he be in the political arena without the army’s institutional support?

Several former generals and scions of dictators past have taken to politics — largely with unimpressive results. Gen Musharraf is following in their footsteps. Even those with better credentials have not been able to make their presence felt during elections. It is easy to dabble in politics from the comfort of a foreign country. However, enlisting the support of the man on the street in Pakistani cities is a different matter. Gen Musharraf’s decision raises a pertinent question: will national politics allow the return of a former military strongman at a time when the democratic project is still young? It does not appear likely

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Faith is the bird that sings when the dawn is still dark.