Deweaponisation

Thursday, 12 Aug, 2010


There have been several deweaponisation campaigns in the past, yet none of them have been successful. However, if steps are not taken now the problem may spiral out of control, if it has not done so already. Estimates suggest there are millions of weapons in the country. - Photo by AP.

Karachi’s dreadful orgy of violence last week, in which nearly 100 people were killed in a period of three days, has once again drawn attention to the issue of illegal weapons.



Officialdom is talking about increasing penalties for those found possessing illegal arms as the latter are clearly playing a major role in fuelling chaos across Pakistan, especially in Karachi. From sectarian death squads to urban gangsters to fringe political activists, all sorts of unsavoury characters are armed to the teeth in this country. Hence there exists a great need for the government to deweaponise society.

At an official meeting held in Karachi on Tuesday, it was decided that in order to put a cap on the seemingly unstoppable trend of targeted killings, a number of steps would be taken. Among them, punishment for possession of illegal weapons would be 10 years’ imprisonment. The ISI and IB would also coordinate with local police to maintain a check on violence. It was also announced that no ‘political pressure’ would be tolerated when dealing with such cases. Such tough talk has been heard countless times, yet each new cycle of violence seems to be more brutal than the last. The government must ensure that such statements are followed up with action, or else these hollow promises will end up as an insult to the citizens’ intelligence. It seems the most obvious solution to ending violence is to cleanse the city and the country of illegal weapons and to bring the perpetrators to justice.

There have been several deweaponisation campaigns in the past, yet none of them have been successful. However, if steps are not taken now the problem may spiral out of control, if it has not done so already. Estimates suggest there are millions of weapons in the country. Guns are coming into Pakistan from beyond its borders while areas like Darra Adamkhel within the country are also a major source of illegal arms. The supply lines which allow weapons to pour into our cities and towns need to be cut. Though targeting the end user is important, the entire network involved in the illicit arms trade — smugglers, suppliers, distributors, complicit officials — must be dismantled. Since the intelligence agencies are now on board, it is hoped they will be effective in curbing arms’ smuggling. Armed sectarian militias and violent elements associated with political parties must be defanged. Also, the display of weapons — including by guards accompanying politicians and other ‘elites’ — must be strictly banned. The situation demands that a well-planned, across-the-board deweaponisation campaign be carried out if normalcy is to be restored.

Costs of floods

The enormous destruction of the economic and social infrastructure by floods over the last few weeks has set the country back by many years. The exact costs will not be known for some time but the losses are estimated to have already far exceeded the damage done by the 2005 earthquake. The United Nations says Pakistan requires millions of dollars for rescue and relief operations and billions for reconstruction of the flood-hit infrastructure. The scale of destruction is feared to jeopardise Pakistan’s ability to salvage its fragile economy for many years to come and weaken its capacity to tackle key challenges, including poverty alleviation and the threat of militancy.



The cash-starved government needs immediate and generous international support to undertake relief and reconstruction efforts and avoid budgetary strains. The global response to the catastrophe is a lot slower compared to the relief efforts for the earthquake victims five years ago. The assistance some countries have promised so far is far from adequate and can hardly help the West, particularly Washington and London, to win the hearts and minds of the people of Pakistan.

Among the parts of the country hit the hardest by floods are regions that are known to be poor and also for supplying fresh blood to militant groups — areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southern Punjab. A delay in rehabilitation here would enhance the sense of deprivation that these areas already feel. Thus, if it is not moved by a pure humanitarian urge, the outside world has a selfish reason to step forward quickly to help Islamabad undertake rebuilding in these areas. The donors’ lack of confidence in the government’s ability or will to spend aid money properly and honestly should not keep it from helping the suffering millions. The money can be channelled through credible international and local organisations to the affected population.

But before the world comes to our rescue, our politicians also need to learn a lesson or two. The delayed and inadequate official action to rescue people trapped in the floodwaters and provide emergency relief supplies in time has already prompted public protests at a few places. Just as it was not the right occasion for the president to leave for his European visit, this is also not the right time to score political points when millions are struggling for survival. The scale and magnitude of destruction demands that politicians cast aside their differences to help the people rather than using their misery for photo-ops. Political wrangling at this point at the cost of affectees can only provoke greater public anger.

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Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Violence against women Dawn Editorial

Thursday, 12 Aug, 2010

The latest figures on women victims of violence in Sindh released by the Aurat Foundation ought to do more than just remind us that thousands of women every year continue to be subjected to various forms of aggression and abuse in our country.



The figures — more than 1,175 in the first six months of 2010 — ought to shame the government into doing more in terms of legislation to help curb crimes and violations of the rights of women. No doubt some steps in the legislative arena have been taken. In January the president signed the Criminal Law (Amendment) Act upholding the dignity of women as their basic right. In March he signed the Protection against Harassment of Women at Work Place Act. However, there is still no law protecting women at home and from their family members, who very often are the main perpetrators of violence against them.

Legislation on domestic violence has been in the offing for six years now since the first bill on the subject was introduced in 2004. The closest the bill came to fruition as law was in August 2009 when the Domestic Violence (Protection and Prevention) Act was adopted by the National Assembly. Unfortunately, it was allowed to lapse when the Senate did not adopt it within the three-month mandatory period of it being approved by the lower house. The fact that it has not materialised into law so far can only be a stigma for parliament. Gender justice and protection initiatives are no doubt important. These would include the establishment of legal aid centres to help women who have been forced to leave their home, gender justice committees to help women get their rightful share of inheritance and advocacy programmes to help reduce honour killings. But equally if not more crucial is a protection law that gives women a level playing field in the domestic arena. Such a law will also bring us in line with a growing number of developing countries that have outlawed spousal abuse, and help society realise that violence against women is indeed a crime that must not go unpunished.

Media blackout Dawn Editorial

Thursday, 12 Aug, 2010

Is is time the PPP’s Sindh leadership owned up to its petty war on Jang as well as Geo and ARY. While the channels are back on air, no sane mind will believe that the party workers acted on their own, pressured the cable operators to pull the plug and burnt copies of the paper without a wink from the party’s provincial hierarchy.



Though it was not countrywide and was confined to Karachi and parts of Sindh, the unannounced Geo and ARY blackout constituted an attack on press freedom and a slur on a party that is in power because the people voted for it. Its commitment to press freedom in the party’s foundation documents and its various election manifestoes is categorical. During the 2007 lawyers’ movement, especially after the Nov 3 emergency, when the Musharraf government ordered the banning of many channels and policemen ransacked TV offices, the PPP leaders were among those who criticised the military government’s war on the media and the harsh Pemra guidelines that followed. That the PPP should itself now persecute sections of the media is astonishing.

One may have reservations about the way some newspapers and channels have gone overboard about the Birmingham incident and reported the incident out of proportion. To that extent the PPP workers’ anger is understandable. But the best response would have been to ignore the aberration rather than impart new dimensions to the incident and create a crisis that turned out to be counterproductive for the party and the government. We demand that the PPP leaders restrain their workers and refrain from clamping down on the media in this manner in future. At a time when floods are ravaging the country, and hundreds of thousands are without food and shelter, the government should seek the media’s help for mobilising national and international efforts for mitigating their suffering instead of trying to intimidate it.

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Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Misuse of UN helmets

Friday, 13 Aug, 2010

One can only call it a case of dishonesty. On Wednesday, a UN spokesman “informed” Indian authorities that some soldiers of the Rapid Reaction Force in Indian-held Kashmir were using the UN-marked blue helmets and shields against Kashmiri protesters.



The RRF has not been assigned the task of crushing the current wave of unrest in Kashmir. Its duty is to undertake street marches as a show of force to deter Kashmiri youths now engaged in a new uprising against New Delhi. However, the RRF has exceeded its mandate and takes part in baton charges against Kashmiri protesters. Reacting to this blatant misuse of the UN’s logo and its hallmark blue colour, the spokesman for the UN Military Observers’ Group in India and Pakistan said Indian authorities had promised to “solve this situation”. New Delhi’s version is that the UN helmets were being used by some Indian soldiers who had gone abroad on peacekeeping missions.

This is an extremely poor explanation. Surely, as a well-trained security force, the RRF must have standardised kits and uniforms for its soldiers. That some of them should discard the prescribed kit and use helmets of their own choice is appalling. The wire agencies say Kashmiris have been bewildered by the UN helmets because the RRF men are armed with rifles and dressed in full riot gear while charging at the protesters. This obviously is a very crude attempt on India’s part to give a UN cover to its military presence in held Kashmir, especially because Indian soldiers have often been accused of gross human rights violations. The world body thus rightly feels concerned over the misuse of its insignia, because the Kashmiris as a people could think that the UN was hand in glove with India and against their struggle for freedom and dignity.

Friday, 13 Aug, 2010

Even before the sighting of the Ramazan moon each year, Pakistani consumers are hit by the spiralling prices of essential food items. This year, the people’s miseries have been compounded by devastating floods across the country, with millions of acres of agricultural land destroyed by the raging torrents.



Nature’s fury and man’s avarice have combined to deliver a double blow, with crushing food prices adding to the people’s woes during the month of fasting. In Karachi the prices of several food items have doubled compared to last Ramazan. The city government has failed to issue a complete price list, giving retailers a free hand to make excessive profits. For example, certain pulses have witnessed a three-fold increase in price in a year. The situation elsewhere is not much better. Lahore has seen similarly astronomical price hikes. In Quetta vegetable prices have doubled while observers say price-checking teams are ineffective. Peshawar has seen an average increase of Rs10-15 in the price of food items while sugar is available at Rs85 per kilo. Meat is largely unavailable as much of the livestock perished in the floods. Reports from Islamabad suggest similar galloping prices of food items.

While the floods have caused major disruptions in the supply of goods across the country, pushing up prices, the element of profiteering is not entirely absent. Retailers claim they cannot sell at government-notified rates as they purchase goods at high rates from wholesalers, who in turn blame producers for high prices. It seems all stakeholders pass the buck in this regard, leaving consumers as the ultimate losers. Some observers have suggested that consumers themselves are to blame for the high prices, as buying in bulk results in shortages, pushing up demand. Though in the long term people need to change their habits of excessive consumption and waste — especially the middle classes and the elite — the government cannot be absolved of responsibility in ensuring that essential items are available at affordable rates. True, the market is driven by profit. But the government must ensure that in Ramazan particularly, a price-checking and enforcement mechanism is in place so that retailers don’t end up fleecing consumers.

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Nature’s warning

Friday, 13 Aug, 2010

Despite the many people who remain sceptical about global warming and climate change, increasing evidence indicates that it is not business as usual for the world’s weather patterns. There has been in general a rise in extreme climatic events over the years.



This year — and we are little more than halfway through it — has brought monsoons of such ferocity to the region that devastation on a scale that is difficult to fully comprehend has been wreaked across Pakistan. While millions of citizens continue to suffer in the immediate aftermath of the deluge, the country is now said to be facing another spell of torrential rains that will no doubt aggravate the situation. Russia, meanwhile, is experiencing the hottest heat-wave in nearly a century and a half. This has led to wildfires that have killed dozens and left thousands homeless. And in the remote Zhouqu county in China’s north-west, massive mudslides and landslides over the past few days have killed hundreds, caused the evacuation of tens of thousands, and have left behind a shattered infrastructure.

Such terrible climate-related events are being witnessed with increasing frequency around the world, in geographically disparate places. Together, they underscore the fact that climate change and global warming are likely to have increasingly harsh effects on humanity. True, it is important to identify the reasons behind these changes and to try and prevent further damage. But in order to reduce the scale of human suffering, it is even more important that state administrations recognise the dangers and prepare contingency and emergency plans. The weather is outside the control of mankind, but the least we can do is to prepare ourselves for the hazards it can pose.

This is an especially valid requirement for Pakistan, where the ill-preparedness and slow response of the administration to the flood disaster has evoked sharp criticism. Nobody, not even the National Disaster Management Authority which is tasked with this mandate, displayed the ability to swing into rapid and effective action to help the victims. Pakistan must learn the lesson: weather-related disasters are going to increase in frequency, and we remain unprepared at our own peril. Apart from natural calamities such as floods or earthquakes, the country’s water supply — already insufficient — will continue to shrink, partly because of the effect of global warming on the planet’s water reserves. Given that our population is growing at the same time, this is bound to lead to shortages of resources, including food. Unless the country plans ahead and puts in place mechanisms that factor in the effects of climate change, the future looks bleak indeed.

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Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Something missing

Saturday, 14 Aug, 2010

Somehow the level of empathy that ought to be on offer is missing this time round. According to the UN, some 13.8 million people have been displaced or otherwise affected by this summer’s floods while over 1,500 have been killed.



It is said that the number of affectees is now greater than those hit by the 2004 tsunami and the earthquakes in Kashmir and Haiti in 2005 and 2010. A total bigger, it should be stressed, than the victims of those three terrible disasters put together. Yet, the kind of spontaneous public support, large-scale donations and assistance by volunteers that was in evidence following the 2005 earthquake is nowhere to be seen. True, some organisations are doing their bit and the government is scrambling to make up for its initial failures. But still there is something missing: widespread giving and the ability to relate to the plight of people who have lost everything.

In part, perhaps, the public has not been so generous in its support because the death count has been nowhere near the devastation caused by the 2005 earthquake. Also, it must be remembered that earthquakes are sudden cataclysmic events and can kill thousands within minutes while floods build up over time. There is often an advance warning, at least in the lower riparian areas, and this can lead to a sense of inevitability and the feeling that there is little one can do in response. Nothing is further from the truth. There is plenty that we as a nation can and must do to help those whose lives have been shattered by the ongoing floods. We need to open our hearts, and our wallets, to our fellow Pakistanis. The immediate concern is relief work but the long-term rehabilitation that most affectees will require should not be forgotten.

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Air crash inquiry

Dawn Editorial
Saturday, 14 Aug, 2010

While the families of the passengers and crew who perished in the Margalla plane crash two and a half weeks ago are still in mourning, they must inevitably deal with the issue of compensation.



However, in addition to the need to ensure adequate monetary compensation for the deaths of the grieving families’ relatives, justice for the air crash victims and their surviving families demands a thorough public investigation to verify any act of omission or commission which could have resulted in the tragedy. Justice would not be served if the inquiry into the Margalla air crash met the same fate as the other inquiries conducted into numerous air crashes involving Pakistani commercial carriers. These were kept away from the eyes of the public with the crash officially being attributed to ‘pilot error’.

If the inquiry into the Margalla air crash is to be one that will help prevent such tragedies from happening again, it would have to go beyond merely blaming easy targets like the pilot or the weather. Pakistan is rated Category 1 in the International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme, which determines whether a country — not individual air carriers — adheres to international standards and recommended practices for aircraft operation and maintenance established by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Nevertheless concerns about traffic control protocols and navigation aids, especially at Islamabad’s airport, have reportedly been raised by industry experts. Earlier, in 2007, safety issues about Pakistan’s air industry had been highlighted when the European Union banned the national airline’s flights, apparently because of concerns related to an aging fleet. The inquiry into the Margalla tragedy constitutes the first of its kind into a private airline’s crash since private commercial carriers emerged in the country in the 1990s; the other plane crashes have involved the national carrier. Only by making the Margalla air crash inquiry — and other air crash probes — public can we hope to determine and efficiently implement corrective measures to halt what many experts maintain are falling aviation and safety standards in an industry that has been booming because of an increase in travelling demands.

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Food reserves

Dawn Editorial
Saturday, 14 Aug, 2010

The latest estimate on crop damage by no less a person than the World Bank president Robert Zoellick is a sobering one: approximately $1bn of crops have been destroyed in the country.



That figure is almost certainly going to be crossed, however, as local experts are warning that the destruction of rice, cotton, sugarcane, tobacco and other cash crops could exceed Rs250bn (approximately $3bn). The onset of Ramazan, when the demand for fruit and vegetables spikes, has already led to reports of price increases of between 25-50 per cent in many areas. At this point, the real danger that must be prevented from materialising is the knock-on effect: farmland must be prepared in time for the next crop season so as to prevent the crisis continuing in the year ahead. A report in this newspaper yesterday underlined what an immense challenge that will be. The 1,000 tractors thought to be lost so far represent a tiny fraction of the damage to agricultural infrastructure that the floods will have caused.

Another area that must be of focus in the months ahead is the agricultural buffer stocks system, meant to insure against crises and calamities. Take the issue of wheat. In April, when it became clear there was a surplus of approximately one and a half million tonnes of wheat in the country (production this year plus four million tonnes of wheat carried over from last year) some voices began to suggest that wheat should be exported. Low international prices made the idea unattractive, but certain influential lobbies pressed ahead, arguing for a subsidy to make exports possible. The idea was resisted and that has proved to be a prescient decision. Had the wheat been exported, Pakistanis would have faced a spike in wheat and wheat flour prices, with the high demand in Ramazan compounding the problem. Given an annual demand of over 26 million tonnes, it may not be immediately apparent why the export of 1.5 million tonnes could push prices dramatically upwards. However, it is in the nature of the market that a five to 10 per cent shortage can cause prices to shoot up disproportionately. That is exactly what happened a few years ago during the regime of Gen Musharraf when permission was granted to export wheat and subsequently the wheat crop failed to meet official estimates.

The lesson, then, is that a reasonable agricultural crop buffer is necessary for food security in the country. The government must therefore work to insulate the system of buffer stocks from political pressure by placing it in the hands of independent professionals.

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__________________
Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Tough year ahead

Sunday, 15 Aug, 2010

Speaking yesterday on the 63rd anniversary of Pakistan’s independence, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani exhorted the nation: “The nation will confront the challenges as it did at the time of partition … This time too we shall succeed.” If only it were that simple. Quite simply, the federal government is failing the basic tests of governance, a fact that was becoming increasingly obvious even before the floods. To be sure, the present government has achieved a number of successes, some unprecedented: the 18th Amendment, the NFC award, the Gilgit-Baltistan autonomy package and the Balochistan package are notable examples. For this the efforts of the government must necessarily be acknowledged. But it is increasingly clear that the government is only able to deliver when some kind of political manoeuvring is involved. Beyond the bargaining and cajoling with elected representatives, in the real world — the world of governance, services delivery, policymaking and policy implementation — the government’s performance has been abysmal.

Consider the state of the economy. Inflation has been a sustained problem and despite the government’s promises, it has not been brought down to acceptable levels. The problem is increasingly obvious: a sustained, large budget deficit is pouring more money into an economy where output is sagging, meaning more money is chasing the same amount of goods. Clearly, the extraordinary, though very necessary, expenses on the security front are contributing to the fiscal deficit. Nevertheless, operating in a crisis environment requires a certain seriousness of purpose, which the federal government is clearly lacking. On neither the revenue nor the expenses front have serious efforts been made to fix the finances of the state. Economists have pointed out scores of areas in which expenses can be trimmed or even done away with altogether. For example, the federal government funds a number of institutes and organisations that have no discernible purpose other than to suck up scarce funds. The National Reconstruction Bureau continues to exist even though its staff has no real work and neither does it expect to have work anytime soon. On the revenue front, lack of political will means that increasing direct taxes remains off the table while even the reforms that are purportedly championed, such as the VAT, languish in a bureaucratic purgatory of sorts.

In truth, more worrying than the scale of Pakistan’s problems is the lack of direction and the absence of will to tackle its problems. Pakistan survived a baptism of fire at birth; more than 60 years on, the flames are everywhere once again, but the fire-fighters are nowhere to be found.



Saving Pakistan from itself

By Kunwar Idris
Sunday, 15 Aug, 2010

The response of the political leaders, the government and civil society as a whole to the country’s worst-ever natural disaster has been both delayed and mean. It is a kind of save-Pakistan-from-itself situation.

Even the army that comes to the people’s rescue when the civil administration falters or fails was late this time in coming and its presence was felt much less than in earlier, lesser crises. The world response matches domestic indifference. Only the ‘hated’ American soldiers with their helicopters are there to save lives. Don’t we need to look at our ‘friends’ more closely?

The pledges made are small and much of the money promised would be available after the suffering has taken its toll. Well into the second week of the calamity, the donations received in the prime minister’s relief fund remain a pittance. Among a few large donors is a rags-to-riches politician who only a week earlier had spent, perhaps, an equal sum on a wedding feast at a plush Dubai hotel. Thus he has come to represent the rich of Pakistan as they are known to the world — charitable and vainglorious at the same time.

The rains and floods, the prime minister says, had put the country back by a generation. That sounds like an exaggeration only to forestall the criticism of his government’s extravagance and incompetence. The damage to the infrastructure would surely cost a great deal but repaired — sooner or later. It is the nation that seems to have lost its soul.

Its chosen representatives do not now have a dictator to curse nor can they blame ‘obstructing’ judges. They indulge in harangues but lack the moral strength to inspire a nation in crisis. Helping the people in distress are only the soldiers and some jihadis. The liberal or mainstream parties are nowhere to be seen.

For the failure of the political leadership and civil administration to deal with the day-to-day problems, much less with a crisis of this magnitude, the blame lies not with this or that individual or party but with the politics of vengeance and retribution that has marked the national scene almost for four decades now. There may have been moments of personal triumph here and there but the moral and institutional decline has been continuous and, barring a revolution, looks irreversible.

A quick reckoner of this decline is Bangladesh which is now poised to grow at twice the rate of Pakistan. A more tempting comparison, however, would be with Egypt which has been ruled by more strongmen and longer than Pakistan. In human development and social services starting from the same base in the middle of the last century, the literacy level in Egypt has risen to 85 per cent against ours at 54 and an average Egyptian expects to live eight years longer than a Pakistani. But, more amazingly, 99 per cent of Egyptian homes now have electricity and 97 per cent have piped water supply.In South Asian terms Pakistan shows up poorly and Southeast Asia (is altogether a different story. The old-timers can recall a time when the Koreans came to Pakistan to study our development model. Today an average South Korean is 30 times richer than his Pakistani counterpart.

In Pakistan the failure has been collective but the rot began with the political leadership. It travelled down the line to hit the bureaucracy and then spread across the national spectrum to undermine all other spheres. The causes are numerous and remedies are often recounted but relevant in the current context is the need to curtail government expenditure to save money for the rehabilitation of flood victims and modernisation of the physical infrastructure.

The size of the government calls for a drastic reduction. A smaller size would increase efficiency. One often wonders that if the province of West Pakistan (one unit) could make do with 13 or so ministers and as many secretaries why must each province now have three to four times that number? West Pakistan’s secretariat had just five cars for everybody to share; the number now defies a count.

The chief minister then had but one office room and that too in the main secretariat along with all other ministers and officials. The Punjab chief minister now hardly ever goes to the secretariat. A palace-like structure that Chaudhry Parvez Elahi built for himself is now occupied by an assortment of freeloaders who are a burden on a government that runs on bank overdraft.

Then come cash handouts or subsidies. Rs70bn set aside for payment to the poor selected by parliamentarians under a programme named after Benazir should be diverted to the flood victims. Putting the poor on dole, even if honestly chosen (which appears unlikely considering the political channel of distribution) is a bad idea. The same applies to the sum set aside for Punjab’s two-rupee sasti roti which even the rich can buy.

Though late, the Punjab chief minister has sensibly decided to stop this waste and divert the saved Rs500bn to flood relief. The Sindh government is now contemplating a similar subsidy in wheat flour through the millers for sale in the open market. Given our proven inability to control the market forces, this subsidy is unlikely to reach the poor just as the subsidy on fertiliser, pesticide or other commodities did not. It too will get lost in the long channel of bribe and profit.

The savings in these and other subsidies and a heavy cut in spendings by a mélange of political coalitions that have no policy or direction should make up somewhat for the lack of local and foreign donations. The saddest of all thoughts however is that the donors are being cagey or wary not because they do not realise the gravity and scale of the problem. It is Pakistan’s reputation for corruption and mismanagement that holds them back. And there we are stuck.

Harassment of channels

Dawn Editorial
Sunday, 15 Aug, 2010

Although the country’s electronic news media industry is reaching a growing audience, attempts have been made in recent years to curtail the viewers’ right to watch channels of their choice. The most infamous example was the Musharraf dispensation’s decree in 2007 that cable operators take certain channels offline. Yet despite the shift from a dictatorship to a democracy, similar attempts have been witnessed since the 2008 elections. Some parts of the country — Karachi in particular — have witnessed this predicament during the past few days, when certain news channels have been taken offline by cable operators, reportedly upon pressure from the government.

Given that governmental attempts to muzzle the media have historically mostly been extra-legal, it is encouraging that in the current instance the Supreme Court has ordered the chairman of the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority to ensure the uninterrupted transmission of the channels that had been blocked by cable operators. That the court based its order on Articles 19 and 19A of the constitution, which refer to the freedom of speech and the right to information, establishes that the SC has laid down new ground rules to be followed in case of resentment against any media network or its reportage. This step had been long overdue. This government and the previous one have on many occasions accused the media of transgressing its boundaries. Media organisations meanwhile claim the right to independent reporting. The only place where such a difference of opinion can be resolved is in a court of law. The SC has, through its order on Friday, delivered this message clearly.

Resort to legal dispute-settling mechanisms is important for the credibility of the government. Since cable operators have often been pressured to restrict access to certain channels, a culture of intimidation has been created. Not only does this run contrary to the spirit of the freedom of speech doctrine, it also defies the logic of a market-driven economy. In case of harassment, as is happening in certain parts of Karachi, even after the SC’s orders, cable operators should be encouraged to approach the courts.

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Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Before disaster strikes

By Moeed Yusuf
Monday, 16 Aug, 2010

PAKISTAN has been inflicted with the worst floods in its history. This is the second major natural disaster to have hit the country in less than five years, the 2005 earthquake being the first.

After every such catastrophe, the national debate tends to focus exclusively on evaluating the government’s efforts at relief, and subsequently rehabilitation and reconstruction. The episode itself and the devastation caused by it are considered unfortunate, but uncontrollable by man.

This presumption is questionable and may explain why we end up with such colossal damage each time a major disaster occurs.

Natural disasters are indeed ‘natural’. However, the devastation they cause is not. The excessive damage from natural disasters is common across the developing world — 95 per cent of disaster-related deaths occur in developing countries and losses incurred are 20 times higher on average than in developed countries.

Social scientists argue that this is more than just a coincidence; the “disaster-development linkage” thesis, now accepted by virtually all quarters, argues that the devastation caused by disasters can be traced to the kind of development practices employed by a country. Unsustainable development practices leave both infrastructure as well as the local communities more vulnerable to disasters.

In Pakistan’s case, the virtually exclusive focus of the national debate on post-disaster efforts has led to the neglect of the more fundamental issue, i.e. the need for sustainable development practices as a means of limiting disaster-related losses. Even policy measures aimed at long-term improvements are concerned with management of the losses, not their ex ante mitigation — Musharraf’s silver bullet solution to what ensued after the 2005 earthquake was the establishment of the National Disaster Management Authority which again reflected the emphasis on post-disaster efforts. The result: Pakistanis were just as vulnerable to the next big disaster.

It is hardly surprising then that Pakistan’s development-disaster policy linkage is exceptionally poor. Outright neglect is obvious at various tiers. Even on paper, development visions have failed to integrate disaster mitigation. Only three national five-year development plans since 1947 talk of disasters and that too as indirect concerns.

Recent visionary documents have paid somewhat more attention — Environmental Impact Assessments for instance were mandated for large development projects by the Shaukat Aziz government — but even here the mention is more a function of the need to satisfy donors than any sincere desire to make a clean break from the past.

Literature on the subject argues that one of the most effective tools to ensure sustainability in development practices, one that may reflect sincerity on the part of the authorities, is to conduct ex ante ‘integrated assessment’. Integrated assessments allow policymakers to assess the economic, social and environmental concerns of a policy through a single-assessment tool, thus identifying the potential risks (including those that exacerbate the likelihood of disasters) attached with any initiative. In Pakistan, even the mention of the integrated approach remains absent for the most part.

Mindsets remain entrenched as well. Sustainability-inducing provisions are considered nuisances that come in the way of swift, profitable development. The government’s own functionaries regularly circumvent the protocols in lucrative investments.

Investment contracts are often secretive in nature and the deals tend to leave sustainability out of the picture; community concerns play second fiddle to the desire to maximise investment potential. The oil and gas sector for example is notorious for under-the-table contract negotiations — oil concession licences rarely ever surface for public scrutiny and when they do, they are inevitably found wanting on the sustainability count.

Next, even when the will exists, the institutional capability to effectively implement and monitor the policies is lacking. Agencies tasked to ensure environmental protection are low on the priority list and thus lack the requisite expertise and resources to ensure compliance. Further, environmental screening of development projects is still not strictly enforced and monitored. All this enhances vulnerability in disaster-prone areas.

Perhaps nowhere is the failure more obvious and consequential than in the forest sector. There is virtual consensus among global experts that hill and riverine forest cover directly contributes to reduced losses from natural disasters like earthquake and flooding.

Pakistani authorities are reminded of this fact after every disaster. Severe criticism was launched against forest-sector management as far back as the 1992 floods in Punjab (and more recently after the 2005 earthquake). Various policies including a complete ban on timber extraction in the north-west was employed. Yet, powerful timber mafias, pervasive corruption and, most importantly, the lack of any market-based incentives to shift from timber use to other contemporary construction alternatives led to precisely the opposite outcome.

Pakistan’s timber forest cover has experienced an unprecedented decline. Overall, less than five per cent of the country’s area is now forested and the current degradation rate will leave the country forest-less by 2025. Vulnerability to disasters will thus continue to rise.

By all accounts, natural disasters will likely be a fairly common occurrence in Pakistan in the coming years and decades. Long-term sustainability of development is therefore an absolute imperative.

Sustainability concerns must be internalised in national project planning. Moreover, stringent but practically implementable rules and regulations to ensure sustainable development practices must be developed. A key measure in this regard would be to mandate ex-ante integrated assessments of all national development policies.

The demand side of unsustainable development is also critical. Perverse incentives that prompt unsustainable use of resources ought to be replaced by meaningful incentive structures. These must be able to act as a buffer against market failures and thus allow Pakistani citizens to play a constructive role in preservation rather than forcing them to become predators of the environment.


Engineering failures

By Mushtaq Gaadi
Monday, 16 Aug, 2010

THE devastating floods in Pakistan have once again ignited public debate on the necessity of new water reservoirs in the country. The proponents of Kalabagh Dam, including some prominent politicians, TV anchorpersons, and Punjab water engineers, hold that if Kalabagh dam had been built, we would not be facing the present disaster wreaked upon millions of people in the Indus Valley.

According to them, the Kalabagh dam or any other water engineering project should not be politicised because these issues are essentially ‘technical’. Decisions on such vital issues should be left to the wisdom of engineers and technical experts.

Implicit in this argument are three underlying assumptions, all three of which are incorrect. First, it is assumed that ‘technical’ engineering interventions in natural (water) systems have nothing to do with politics. Second, that the control of river flows through engineering structures is the best possible way to control flooding. Third, that the knowledge of the engineering community is conclusive and beyond any critical scrutiny. Nonetheless, mounting evidence and experiences throughout the world suggest that these assumptions are not only reductionist but also in fact part of the problem of river basin management.

A closer analysis of the present flood and flood-related events experienced at/around Taunsa barrage furnishes us with some counter-intuitive, and indeed, scandalous evidence: the very structures meant to control flooding have partially caused and definitely exacerbated the flood problem itself.

The flood trauma started with the breach of the eastern marginal embankment in the upstream of Taunsa barrage. The breach caused the Indus to outflank the barrage and the river carved out a new channel to the left of its original course. Very shortly, floodwater flowing down this new channel found its way into the extensive network of irrigation canals on the left side. Consequently, masses of roiling, churning floodwater are now rushing through and inundating relatively higher ground which was rarely inundated by the Indus. Nature is responsible, yes. But we must not overlook the role that engineering structures have played in transforming the present floods into an enormous disaster unparalleled in the history of this region.

Taunsa barrage is one of the most vulnerable diversion structures built across the Indus River. Therefore, it was recently rehabilitated and modernised with the help of a World Bank loan of $144m. The project was approved and implemented on an emergency basis so that the barrage could be kept functional. All that money has been washed right away. The Bank is now involved in similar costly rehabilitation works at Jinnah barrage, the latter also failing to withstand these recent floods. Jinnah barrage’s staff was compelled to blow up the embankments on the right bank resulting in widespread inundation and heavy damages to the under-construction hydropower project also stationed there. The Bank has plans to undertake similar rehabilitation projects at other barrages in Punjab.

When the rehabilitation of Taunsa barrage was being planned in early 2004, local civil society objected to the dominant engineering perspective and asked the Bank and the irrigation department to pay more attention to mitigating the barrage-induced alterations in river hydrology and problem of sediment deposition, a phenomenon which has made the flood protective structures susceptible to regular failure. In this regard, a memorandum was submitted to the then country director of the World Bank. The memorandum asked both the Bank and the provincial government to appoint an independent review commission to ascertain the nature and scope of rehabilitation works at Taunsa barrage. However, the country director turned down the demand in a separate press conference.

The main problem with Taunsa barrage is the rising riverbed owing to huge sediment deposition in the upstream areas. Before the construction of dams and barrages, the Indus used to transport about 250 megatons (Mt) of sediment annually, mostly silt and clay, to the Arabian Sea. This helped in the development and nurturing of freshwater mangroves prior to the phase of dam construction. By 1974-75, this had fallen to about 100 Mt per annum and it is believed the present rates are negligible. Taunsa barrage traps huge sediments left over fromthe upstream storage and diversion structures. Moreover, the pond area is additionally fed annually with large amounts of silt eroded from the highly degraded catchment areas of the Suleiman Range. These heavy silt loads are transported through western tributaries (hill-torrents) of the Indus River.

The obstruction of great volumes of water together with the suspension of a large amount of sediment has complicated the flooding problem at Taunsa barrage. The riverbed levels are now higher than they have ever been. The construction of a series of protective levees and dykes has also contributed to raising the riverbed and the sedimentation of upstream areas. These changes forced the river into developing an oblique flow line and establishing a more tortuous course. Consequently, it now spends its vigour on eroding the vulnerable banks. Moreover, the rising riverbed levels have rendered protective levees and river training works ineffective. Under the rehabilitation project, the crust level of the barrage was raised by one foot so that silt entry into the right bank canal could be controlled. The protective embankments were also to be raised correspondingly but criminal negligence in this regard resulted in no such measures being undertaken. Similarly, local accounts and media reports suggest that the barrage staff has failed to properly operate the newly installed motorised hoisting system.

According to these reports, 10 gates were not fully opened which, if true, turned out to be the main cause of the flood disaster. The truth of these reports must be ascertained, but if they hold, then an official inquiry must be held into the incident and people held accountable.The nature of the debate on the Kalabagh dam in the aftermath of the flood disaster is depressingly flawed. Not only is this debate politically divisive for an already fragile federation, it also covers up the story of how engineering failures have contributed to this disaster. Reconstruction without the benefits of an honest analysis would be tantamount to recreating this same situation, or even worse, in the future.

Baloch killings

Monday, 16 Aug, 2010

HE killing of 16 Punjabi ‘settlers’ in Balochistan in two separate incidents on Saturday is a grim reminder that the low-level insurgency in the province is nowhere near an end. Several points need to be made here. First, why have the provincial government and the security forces failed to provide protection to inter-city buses travelling to and from Balochistan? Ten people lost their lives in a cold-blooded attack — passengers from Lahore were pulled off a Quetta-bound bus and sprayed with bullets — that was entirely preventable had there been some kind of security measures in place. To be sure, it is impossible to provide water-tight security anywhere, least of all in a place like Balochistan. However, the attack on the bus was neither unexpected nor unusual. Better security for the inter-city buses is a must and is not something beyond the capacity of the authorities.

Second, why is the moderate Baloch leadership silent about the violence against those perceived to be outsiders? The silence of mainstream, nationalist voices in Balochistan is only widening the space for the extremists to operate in. True, Baloch moderates themselves feel under threat from the militant extremists in the province, but that does not justify standing by silently as an ethnic purge of Balochistan is attempted through the use of violence and intimidation. There is among certain Baloch leaders a proud history of working inside the Pakistani federation, using peaceful means to correct historic wrongs that have been wrought on the province by ‘centrist’ forces in the state apparatus. Difficult as it may be to speak out openly against the Baloch insurgents today, moderate Baloch leaders need to speak out against the vortex of violence that is dragging the province into an uncertain, volatile future. Third, the noises made by the centre, especially the political government in Islamabad, that Balochistan’s problems will be addressed soon have begun to peter out. The Aghaz-i-Huqooq-i-Balochistan package, the NFC award, the 18th Amendment and various other fiscal measures have all been sensible measures and applauded as such, but they are at best solutions addressing the periphery of the problem in Balochistan today. Little to nothing has come of the central issue of missing persons, with the army insisting there are no missing persons, a position that independent observers and rights groups view with a great deal of scepticism. Moreover, the state does not appear to have a coherent strategy to engage the Baloch in political dialogue, especially the radical elements that have turned to violence. Further delay in addressing those central problems will only deepen the Baloch crisis.


Mosque furore

Monday, 16 Aug, 2010

FOR a brief few hours, US President Barack Obama stood on the right side of the startling national debate in America over private plans to build a mosque near the site of the World Trade Centre in New York. After weeks of declining to enter the fray over what is ostensibly a local issue (authorities in New York have already approved plans for the mosque), Mr Obama appeared to speak out forcefully in favour of the mosque at an iftar dinner on Friday: “This is America. And our commitment to religious freedom must be unshakable. The principle that people of all faiths are welcome in this country and that they will not be treated differently by their government is essential to who we are. The writ of the founders must endure.” Those were marvellous words, a clear expression of the only correct moral, legal and constitutional position that can be taken on the issue of the New York mosque-cum-community centre.

Within hours, however, in the face of ferocious Republican criticism, Mr Obama appears to have backtracked. On Saturday, the American president told reporters: “I was not commenting, and I will not comment, on the wisdom of making the decision to put a mosque there.” So what appears to have been a clarion defence of the New York mosque has been watered down to a professorial dilation on the rights Americans enjoy. Sadly, America’s politicians, especially Republicans, appear to have let down their country and all that it is supposed to stand for. The 9/11 attacks were executed by Al Qaeda, not Muslims at large. That Al Qaeda espouses a distorted view of Islam has nothing to do with ordinary, law-abiding Muslims practising their religion. These are obvious facts. Unfortunately, some American politicians appear to have calculated that Islamophobia is a potent vote-getter. But that is as dangerous as it is self-defeating. Al Qaeda and militant Islamists could probably not dream of a better propaganda opportunity: see, they will say, America really is against Islam. The furore over the mosque isn’t winning hearts and minds for America, it is poisoning them.


Looting of flood victims

Monday, 16 Aug, 2010

ATTACKS on food convoys, such as those seen in Muzaffargarh on Friday, obviously cannot be condoned but it is possible to understand why they take place. Desperate times sometimes result in desperate measures, and starving people who have been badly let down by the state can turn unruly if little or no relief is forthcoming. But that is entirely different from what is happening in parts of Sindh where bandits are reportedly looting flood affectees as they try to make it to safer ground. The meagre belongings of an already ravaged people have been snatched at gunpoint while livestock too has been stolen. The key difference here is that the bandits who are robbing the poor are doing so not so much out of desperation but because they are criminals by profession. Unlike the hungry who looted food on Friday, these armed robbers in district Sukkur are looking to profit from the misery of the poor.

Our moral compass clearly went askew at some point. Instead of lending a helping hand in a time of crisis, some of us instead turn into predators. Imagine this if you can. A family’s house has been inundated by floodwater and standing crops as well as farm animals have been washed away. The victims try to grab whatever they can before the dash for safety but are robbed on the way. This is not to say that such despicable acts of violence are the norm in Pakistani society. Far from it, for there are also reports of ordinary citizens who have gone the extra mile to help their neighbours and even complete strangers. But the state too must play its part. Flood victims must not only be housed, fed and given medical care, their protection from criminal elements should also be ensured.

__________________
Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Mr Ban’s visit

Tuesday, 17 Aug, 2010

Will UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s visit mark a turning point in the international community’s response to the floods that have ravaged vast swathes of Pakistan? Will it finally shake the world’s conscience and spur the major economies into offering the assistance that is so desperately needed to provide relief to some 20 million people who have lost everything?



Mr Ban was visibly disturbed after touring some flood-hit areas on Sunday in the company of Pakistani and UN officials. He called the experience “heart-wrenching”, adding that he “will never forget the destruction and suffering” he saw. Mr Ban also described Pakistan’s worst natural disaster as more calamitous than the 2004 tsunami and the Kashmir earthquake of 2005.

These are stirring words from a widely respected and influential man and it is hoped they will convince world leaders that the time to act is now. A mere fraction of the UN’s $460m appeal has been pledged so far even though the situation on the ground is becoming more disastrous by the day.



And the UN’s global appeal, it should be stressed, covers only the initial phase of relief work such as providing food and shelter, clean drinking water, healthcare, etc. Far more funds will be required in the longer term to rehabilitate affectees and restore livelihoods, but then that is not the immediate concern even though it must — simply must — be addressed at some stage.



Right now the international community needs to understand the gravity of the situation and help Pakistan in its hour of need. That said, it must be acknowledged that the global recession may be contributing to the reluctance to assist. Pakistan’s track record of official mismanagement may also be a factor.

Perhaps the only faint ray of hope in these terrible times is that the government and the opposition may just possibly be on the same page. Here it is encouraging to note that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has in principle accepted PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif’s proposal for establishing an independent commission that will oversee the state’s flood relief measures. “Men of integrity”, we are told, will strive ‘to ensure transparency in the collection, management and distribution of relief funds’.



Such a commission is sorely needed and the plan should not fall through. Mr Sharif is right in pointing out that we cannot wait endlessly for foreign assistance and it is time for the federal and provincial governments to step up to the plate. Lastly, it is also incumbent on the Pakistani public to be more giving than it has been so far in this time of crisis. There is no time to waste.


A heavy price to pay

By Tasneem Siddiqui
Tuesday, 17 Aug, 2010

THAT Pakistan is a poorly administered country is widely accepted. Cynics call Pakistan a ‘failed state’. Others prefer ‘ungovernable’.

Although optimists treat our problems as the pangs of transition, scourges such as militancy, insecurity, corruption, and the deteriorating standards of basic services would compel even the most balanced to call our system a “functioning anarchy”.

This article attempts to answer the question of how much malgovernance is costing us. Misrule is a multifaceted menace, and every facet costs money. It is difficult to shortlist its various aspects, but we can say that its major components are: incompetence, inefficiency, corruption and lack of decision-making. Further, incompetence results in flawed planning, or no planning at all, jeopardising our future.

In this high-tech age, developed countries are quick to compute the cost of most events/decisions. Then there is constant research, appraisal and evaluation of public policies and their implementation, which helps in better planning and informed decision-making. Unfortunately we never carry out such exercises and, therefore, the cost of misrule is difficult to calculate. But we can make an intelligent guess by using the 2010-2011 budgetary figures to try and quantify the losses which occur, or are likely to occur due to malgovernance.

Let’s begin with income. The budget shows that in 2009-10 our total tax collection was Rs1,396bn. If we focus only on income from direct taxes, we see that we collected Rs522bn under this head. But most analysts agree that if we control inefficiency and corruption, this amount can easily be doubled — which means our tax collectors, in collusion with taxpayers, siphon off more than Rs5bn every year.

That is not the end of the story. In Pakistan, out of a population of 170 million, we have less than two million income taxpayers (most of them salaried persons). We can increase our income manifold if we tax all incomes irrespective of source, and streamline the collection system.

On the expenditure side, major heads which consume most of our income are debt-servicing, defence, subsidies for loss-making public-sector entities, the civil administration and intelligence services. For infrastructure development we borrow money from international finance institutions. Let us focus on two major items: subsidy to loss-making corporations and the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). Take the subsidies first. Rs300bn have been allocated for PIA, Pakistan Steel Mills, the Railways, the Pakistan Electric Power Company, etc due to the losses being incurred by these state-owned enterprises.

Until recently these organisations generated handsome profits. But within a span of a few years they are in the red and incurring huge losses. The only reason is nepotism, corruption, political interference and ineffective management. For example, at PIA the average number of staff per airplane averages 700 whereas the international average is 200. Most of these organisations can easily post profits but are forced to seek support because of malgovernance.

The PPP claims the allocation of Rs660bn for the PSDP as a big achievement, but it is an admitted fact that at the end of the year over one-third of this amount will remain unspent because of lack of institutional capacity. Of the remaining amount, 40 per cent will line the pockets of government functionaries, while 20 to 30 per cent will go to the contractors as profit. Pakistanis should consider themselves lucky if they get the benefit of 20 per cent of the money. The same goes for provincial annual development programmes.

None can deny that in all so-called nation-building departments, corruption has been institutionalised and there is a nexus between consultants, contractors, engineers and their bosses (bureaucrats or politicians) to hijack development funds to the tune of 80 per cent. What happens in the departments of irrigation, communication and works, agriculture and livestock is well known. Huge funds are allocated, but hardly any benefit accrues to potential beneficiaries. This story is repeated every year.

The cost of malgovernance by analysing the annual budget is just the tip of the iceberg. The actual cost can only be determined if we factor in the cost of lack of planning, poor decisions, not making the right decisions at the right time and the cost incurred by the masses in not getting services.

The current power shortage is an example of the absence of planning and decision-making. During Gen Musharraf’s tenure everyone was ecstatic at the high growth rate and the expansion of consumer financing, but policymakers lacked the capacity to understand that this expansion required commensurate growth of the infrastructure, with electricity on top. Maybe they lacked the courage to take bold policy decisions at the proper time.

If there was no consensus on Kalabagh, they could have started work elsewhere. They could have taken a quick decision on Thar coal or the installation of small hydro projects. The delay in decision-making has caused tremendous losses to trade, industry and agriculture. Even if a computer wizard could come up with actual costs, how can one compute the cost of hardship ordinary citizens have faced?

It is difficult to assess the extent of damage and compute its costs in social sectors. For example there are hundreds of thousands of incomplete and unutilised projects across Pakistan apart from ‘ghost schools’ and dysfunctional health centres. How can we assess the cost of ‘education not provided’ or maternal deaths that could have been prevented had health facilities worked properly?

Space constraints limit elaboration, but everyone knows how citizens are fleeced, harassed and insulted in the lower courts, police stations, patwar khanas and other government offices. Nothing gets going without illegal gratification.

The annual turnover of corruption in these places is anybody’s guess. But if we take organisations like the Trading Corporation of Pakistan, the FIA, EOBI and the steel mills and the kickbacks from mega projects and defence purchases, the figures would be astronomical.

Pakistan could have been a Malaysia or South Korea had we not disrupted the process of development in the mid-1960s, and fallen prey to malgovernance. Are we ready to learn from our mistakes or will we be condemned to repeat them?

By Gwynne Dyer
Tuesday, 17 Aug, 2010

NAOMI Campbell may be dim-witted and self-centred, and the poor schmuck she gave the diamonds to 13 years ago is in deep trouble even though he never tried to turn them into cash, but she certainly is useful. If she hadn’t been forced to testify, nine out of 10 people wouldn’t even know who Charles Taylor is.

Taylor, the former Liberian strongman, is on trial at The Hague on charges of terrorism, murder, rape, enslavement and torture. Taylor gave Campbell some illegal “blood diamonds” when they were both Nelson Mandela’s guests in South Africa in 1997, and because Mia Farrow (who was also there) eventually blew the whistle on her.

It’s not a story about war crimes, it’s a media feeding frenzy about celebrities. When Campbell gave her evidence to the international court in The Hague, the number of journalists covering the trial jumped tenfold. But she has served her purpose: now everybody knows that Charles Taylor has been brought to trial for killing, torturing and maiming hundreds of thousands of his fellow Africans.

He is the first former African head of state ever to face an international court for the crimes he committed. There are a dozen others, many still in office, who deserve to stand beside him, but most of them never will. Even in long-established states, the rule of law is constantly being challenged and subverted. In the international sphere, heads of state and other senior government officials were basically immune to prosecution until recently — but Taylor’s trial is an encouraging sign, and it is not the only one.

In Cambodia, another UN-backed tribunal delivered its first verdict last month, sentencing former prison boss Kaing Guek Eav, known as ‘Duch’, to 35 years in jail. Duch was a minor official in the brutal Khmer Rouge regime that ruled Cambodia from 1975 to 1979 and killed about a quarter of the population, but more senior officials will follow.

In the notorious Tuol Sleng prison he ran, 17,000 went in; seven survived. Later this year, the trials of the real leaders of the Khmer Rouge regime including head of state Khieu Samphan, deputy prime minister Nuon Chea and foreign minister Ieng Sary will begin.

Sometimes, bringing the powerful to justice generally involves a certain amount of bargaining. Take Turkey, where the government announced on Aug 9 that 102 military officers accused of plotting a coup against the democratic order would not be arrested after all. In strictly legal terms it was a deeply unsatisfactory outcome. In practical terms, it was the best outcome imaginable.

Turkey is no Liberia or Cambodia. It is a state with centuries of history as an empire, and over half a century as a democracy. But it was always a country where the armed forces felt that they had the final veto. Four democratically elected Turkish governments have been overthrown by the military in the past 50 years.

When the current government, whose appeal is strongest to devoutly Muslim voters, was first elected in 1992, many soldiers felt that they had to “defend the secular state” again. They were wrong, but much of the senior officer corps got involved in discussions about a coup code-named ‘sledgehammer’. It never happened, but years later the story came out. The rule of law was at stake, so the government arrested some senior soldiers.

This was unprecedented in Turkey, where the military have always been sacrosanct. More arrests followed, some trials got under way, and everybody held their breath waiting to see what the military would do. Answer: they nominated a general who had been implicated in the coup discussions as the chief of the land forces.



Adulterated food

Tuesday, 17 Aug, 2010

THE sale of substandard and adulterated food and drink is not a new issue in Pakistan. However, during periods such as Ramazan, when vendors of foodstuffs enjoy brisk sales, the need to address this vital public health issue is increasingly felt. As reports suggest, the authorities have largely failed to tackle the menace of adulteration, which puts the health of consumers at risk. Focusing on Karachi, a report in this newspaper says that the limited number of food inspectors and a tedious legal procedure mean that the city government is unable to keep a check on adulteration. At present there are said to be about 2,500 cases of food adulteration pending before judicial magistrates. As for the number of food inspectors, as per the rules there should be one inspector for a population of 10,000. With Karachi’s population hovering around 18 million, 13 food inspectors are clearly not enough. If this is the case in the nation’s biggest metropolis, one wonders what the situation is like in other places.

The effects of too few inspectors and a Byzantine legal process are obvious. According to a city government survey of various food items carried out in June, over 20 per cent of the items were found to be either not genuine or in violation of food rules. Apart from the insufficient number of food inspectors, reports from other parts of the country say that in some instances the inspectors are not qualified for their job. The state needs to take food safety seriously. The number of food inspectors in our cities and towns must be increased and eateries’ staff better trained. Officials must also be equipped with better technology to test food quality, and empowered through legislation to take swift action against those who flout food safety laws.

__________________
Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010
By Zubeida Mustafa

FOR some time now — especially since the electronic media was unwittingly liberated by the military government of Gen Pervez Musharraf — cynics and pessimists have been writing off Pakistan.

Since the closing days of July when devastating floods brought large chunks of the country under water, the question being raised by numerous analysts and commentators is how long would Pakistan survive.

There are many who have predicted apocalyptically the end of Pakistan. Others, who are more generous, have warned of collapse not of the state but of the government. Economists speak of the economic downturn as though Pakistan was not in its grip already. But it is a pity that no one deems it necessary to focus on the resilience of the flood victims and the humanitarian spirit of many who are extending a helping hand.

Statistics might be difficult to verify but now it is known that the destruction has been huge. The NDMA recorded close to 1,500 deaths, more than 2,000 injuries and almost 900,000 damaged houses. But before reconstruction and rehabilitation come rescue and relief. Lives have to be saved.

Many have been rescued from the waters of the raging rivers — almost 700,000 according to the NDMA. But now the spectre of hunger, starvation and disease looms large. If more lives are not to be lost it is important to work swiftly to provide healthcare, sanitation, clean drinking water and protection from the natural elements.

The sad part is that the people of Pakistan, expatriates abroad, as well as foreign governments, have lost confidence in the government which should have been in a position to conduct an effective rescue, relief and rehabilitation operation with financial help from the people and friendly foreign governments.

The people of our country always loosen their purse strings when it comes to providing financial relief to a genuine cause if they trust those managing a project. Their generosity has never been in doubt and the Pakistan Centre for Philanthropy estimated that in 1998 Pakistanis donated Rs70bn towards philanthropic causes. This figure must have risen over the years.

Yet the government has failed to mobilise massive donations at home and abroad. While foreign governments have begun to respond to the appeal for disaster relief, they are reluctant to hand over funds to the government.

According to the NDMA, 43 governments/agencies have committed flood relief aid to Pakistan, quite a bit of it in kind. Of these, only 11 have made their donations directly to the government or its agencies. The rest have preferred to give the pledged aid to the United Nations, its agencies or NGOs, both international and local.

This trust deficit was most visible in the case of the funds received in the prime minister’s relief fund account in the National Bank of Pakistan. Ten days after this account was launched only Rs4.3m had been raised. The bank itself donated Rs50m. Conversely, individuals and NGOs have demonstrated that they have greater credibility in the public’s eyes. I personally know of many of them who have raised big amounts for flood relief and have joined the relief efforts.

The Pakistan Medical Association was one of the first to take the initiative by collecting donations in the form of goods, cash and medicines for the flood victims. Other doctors have also responded and the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation, which is an autonomous body in the public sector but depends preponderantly on public donations and has a long tradition of free public service, let it be known on Sunday that in 10 days it had provided medical treatment to over 10,000 people in the flood-hit areas.

Other groups have also joined the relief operation. They comprise like-minded people whose integrity is above reproach. They are trusted and manage to raise donations. There are others who carry weight because they include trusted public figures, such as Aitemaad Pakistan led by Justice (retd) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim who is trying to provide immediate help to the flood affected in Sindh. Target: collect and distribute 24,000 dry ration bags to provide meals for 6,000 families for four weeks.

Yet another organisation I know of is The Citizens Foundation which also aims to provide relief packs to 50,000 families to feed them for a month. Given its success in setting up 660 schools for 92,000 children from low-income families, TCF should hopefully succeed in meeting its target.

Another I know personally which has stepped forward to help is the Indus Resource Centre that has been working in the field of education for rural communities and their sustainable livelihoods in Sindh. The IRC has adopted camps in Dadu and Khairpur where it is supporting over 1,500 families by providing food, water, sanitation and even temporary schools.

There are a host of other dedicated workers and groups who have responded to the emergency with remarkable speed. They are far too many for me to list here. What gives heart and hope is that many have said that once the immediate danger has passed, they will help with the rehabilitation efforts.

It is of course not possible for individuals to do what the government with its resources and administrative machinery has failed to do. But if the numerous groups that have sprouted in the wake of the floods were to adopt an area and work with the community leaders on a long-term basis, the floods could prove to be the turning point in the lives of many Pakistanis.

It must be ensured that whichever village is adopted, it must be provided a primary school and a health centre, however small it may be. Those who adopt a village should continue to interact with the villagers to provide them motivation, moral support and whatever financial assistance possible.

Actually all this should come from the government. But waiting for that amounts to waiting for Godot. Even in these testing times the big landowners have not been moved to part with some of their own wealth that they stole from the people who till their land, to help them in their hour of need.

SC’s responsibility?

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

REMARKS made from the bench during the course of legal cases carry no legal weight. Nevertheless, the world over, such remarks give an insight into the thinking of judges. On Monday, during the ongoing hearings on challenges to certain parts of the 18th Amendment, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry posed the question: “Should we accept if tomorrow parliament declares secularism, and not Islam, as the state polity?” That the question was asked in a rhetorical way was relatively clear: several judges indicated that such a move was even beyond contemplation. That is a troubling position.

Leave aside the remote possibility of secularism being constitutionally approved as the governing ethos of the Pakistani state. The question is really, should the Supreme Court appropriate for itself the responsibility of determining under what system the Pakistani people want to live, as expressed by their elected representatives? Is the SC the guardian of the document, the constitution, which enshrines how Pakistanis want to organise their state, vertically between state and society and horizontally between the institutions of the state, or is it an institution which determines how the state should be organised? The two are very different matters: the first places the SC as a referee, the second as a determinant of the structural design of the Pakistani state.

There is a further issue here: that of secularism itself. Demonised and distorted, the original meaning, and perhaps for reasonable people the only applicable meaning, of the term ‘secularism’ has been lost here in Pakistan. Secularism is not ladeeniat, it is not anti-religion, as has been the claim of religious conservatives since the 1960s. It is one thing for Islamic parties to make that deliberately false claim, quite another for it to have apparently gained traction in the highest court of the land. Secularism is a very specific and narrow concept: the separation of religion and the state. Rather than being anti-religion, secularism is religion neutral. Standing in the way of those claiming that secularism is anti-religion and even vaguely anti-Pakistan at some level is one giant: Mohammad Ali Jinnah. The speech that the Quaid made from the floor of the constituent assembly in 1947 was a clarion defence of secularism, notable both for the occasion and the powerful oratory. Unable to rebuff the straightforwardness of the words — ‘religion is not the business of the state’ — conservatives have resorted to watering it down or ignoring it altogether. Perhaps the SC should ponder this question: would a constitutional amendment passed on the basis of the Quaid’s speech be declared against the ‘basic structure’ of the constitution?

Children at risk

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

WHILE the waters have yet to recede, the spectre of disease has begun to haunt the millions stricken by the flood disaster. The United Nations has sounded the alarm bell, with a spokesman for the world body’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs saying that children are at particular risk from waterborne diseases. The UN is saying that out of a total of six million people at risk from waterborne diseases, up to 3.5 million children are at “high risk” of falling prey to ailments such as diarrhoea and dysentery. Over 20 children have reportedly died in different parts of the country over the past few days, many of the victims suffering from gastroenteritis. Concern has also been raised at the possible spread of cholera. (Thankfully, no case of the dreaded illness has been confirmed as yet.) The UN spokesman has observed that the severity of the disaster might be amplified if donor funds do not start flowing in.

Without a doubt the situation is incredibly depressing and the latest fears about the possibility of epidemics will do little to dispel the pall of gloom enveloping the country. However, there is little time for complacency, and the state — mustering all the help it can— is advised to move swiftly and decisively to check the spread of disease. As experts have pointed out, the provision of clean drinking water and proper sanitation facilities at the camps housing flood victims is essential. There are various options available in this regard that the government might want to employ. These include the use of portable water filtration units. Considering that access to fuel or power could be difficult in certain areas, the solar water disinfection method can be used. Pharmaceutical companies and the corporate world can do their bit by stepping up efforts to get water purification tablets and oral rehydration solutions to the flood-hit people. Also, considering that large concentrations of children are present in the relief camps, it is a good idea to vaccinate them to prevent the spread of disease. The government must waste no time in taking action to prevent the outbreak of epidemics.

More confusion

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

AMERICA will withdraw but will remain “engaged”. This in a nutshell has been the Obama administration’s Afghan policy. On Sunday, Gen David Petraeus added to the confusion by both opposing and guardedly supporting President Barack Obama’s decision, which visualises the beginning of the withdrawal of US troops a year from now. In a TV interview, the commander of the American and Nato forces in Afghanistan said he was not bound by the 2011 target date given by the president. He repeated his views in two interviews given subsequently to two major American newspapers. While sticking to his opposition to the withdrawal, the general said at the same time that he remained “supportive” of President Obama’s decision but that it was too early to determine the size of the withdrawal. Coming in rapid succession, the three interviews give the impression that the general is on a campaign of sorts to assert his position on the withdrawal question.

Let us note that Gen Petraeus is part of a system where it is the civilian leadership that calls the shots, the example of his predecessor, Gen McChrystal, being too close in time to be recounted. As a soldier, the general cannot go against the Obama administration’s policy, for his duty is to translate it into action. For that reason, when he speaks, and speaks repeatedly, in ambiguous tones on the withdrawal issue one cannot but wonder whether the general himself is guilty of ambiguity or his statements are an inevitable consequence of Washington’s Afghan policy, characterised as it is by lack of clarity. When seen in the context of Washington’s position on negotiations with the Taliban, the general’s statement seems to confound all, especially a country like Pakistan, which cannot but be conscious of its security concerns in the aftermath of the American withdrawal.

China overtakes Japan By David Teather

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

CHINA overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy during the second quarter of this year, marking another milestone in the country’s transformation from impoverished communist state to economic superpower.

With its red-hot economy growing at around nine per cent a year, some experts now expect China to outstrip the United States as soon as 2030, its financial strength carrying broad political implications.

Official data published on Monday showed a faltering Japanese economy growing by just 0.1 per cent in the three months to June, with GDP of $1.28tr eclipsed by China, which had economic output of $1.33tr. Although it is not the first time China has outpaced Japan in a single quarter, most economists now expect the emergent economy to end the year firmly ahead.

China’s spectacular growth since Deng Xiaoping began to introduce free-market reforms three decades ago has seen it bounding up the world league of economic powers. Ten years ago it was the sixth-largest in the world but it has since outstripped Britain and France in 2005 and Germany in 2007.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers, described the figures as a symbolic shift. He said: “Clearly it was inevitable, it was a just a question of when it would happen — just as it is pretty inevitable in the long run that it will be bigger than the US as well, because it has four times the population.”

For now, China remains a distant second behind the US. The International Monetary Fund expects China’s GDP to reach $5.36tr this year, while the US is expected to hit $14.79tr. The UK projection is $2.22tr. Japan is expected to have GDP of $5.27tr.

Nick Parsons, head of research at National Australia Bank, said the global financial crisis, which pitched more developed economies into recession, has underlined the shifting world power. “The Chinese economy has more than doubled in size in the past 10 years and will double in size again in the next 10 and I don’t think the financial crisis has accelerated that change as much as it has cemented it,” he added.

For Japan the figures reflect the continued decline of a nation that has held the second spot since 1968, when it overtook West Germany, the result of a remarkable rise as a manufacturing and financial giant in the wake of the Second World War.

But the “economic miracle” came to a juddering halt at the beginning of the 1990s when a property bubble burst. What followed was a lost decade in the doldrums and the country has never fully recovered. Today it faces deflation, an ageing and shrinking population and only minimal growth.

Economists also cited the figures as evidence that the global recovery was still facing strong headwinds.

China’s breakneck growth has not come without cost, causing huge social upheaval, including large-scale migration from the countryside to cities, which are growing at an unprecedented rate.

The Guardian, London

Nehru due soon: Ayub

Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

QUETTA: The Indian Prime Minister, Mr Jawaharlal Nehru, will come to Pakistan around Sept 19 to sign the water treaty. Disclosing this, the President said today that the treaty will be signed in Karachi to ensure the convenience of World Bank representatives who would also be coming to attend the ceremony.

President Ayub Khan arrived here from Rawalpindi to attend the Shaheen Air Training Corps passing out parade and to be installed as chief of the Tareen Tribe.

Replying to a question, the President said that if Mr Nehru is willing to discuss other Indo-Pakistan disputes, they could be settled. All these issues are solvable, he asserted.

In New Delhi, Mr Nehru in a brief reference to Pakistan while opening a debate in the Rajyya Sabha, this morning said he was sure that with the help of the World Bank the treaty will he finished soon. He also told the House that he hoped to visit Pakistan some time next month.

President Ayub said that Karachi has been selected as the venue for the signing of the water treaty because the representatives of the countries that have contributed to the replacement works fund under the canal water treaty, will be coming to sign the agreements, and moreover Foreign Minister Manzur Qadir and Finance Minister Shoaib will be in a hurry to proceed aboard. Mr Qadir is leading the Pakistan delegation to the United Nations General Assembly and Mr Shoaib will be going for the Commonwealth Finance Ministers’ talks.

Replying to a question, the President confirmed that the United Nations have asked for an ordnance company of troops for Congo to manage and distribute stores.

Nehru, Khrushchev discuss aid

NEW DELHI: Letters are believed to have been exchanged between Mr Nehru and Mr Khrushchev recently concerning a further installment of Russian aid for the Third Five-Year Plan, says The Statesman. In this connection a definite announcement is expected to be made soon simultaneously in New Delhi and Moscow.

The Statesman said: “Sources believe that the forthcoming offer may not be very much less than the previous installment of Rs180 crore.”


By Mansoor Raza
Wednesday, 18 Aug, 2010

FLOODS 2010 have apparently affected more than 10 per cent of the population and some 132,000 square kilometres of the total area of Pakistan.

Going by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) website, almost 1,500 people are dead (though independent sources cite a larger figure). Almost 900,000 houses have been damaged. The UN has put the disaster “on a par” with the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The intense flooding, that began some three weeks ago, has washed away roads, bridges, communications lines, health facilities and educational institutions.

The immediate impact of the floods has been telecast in various media images. However, the full picture of the damage has yet to be assessed. The impact on housing, livelihood, livestock, gender, ecology, health, education, water and sanitation and on the psychological health of the people needs to be determined carefully. So far “too little, too late” has defined relief efforts and public anger is mounting.

The patchy, shaky and rickety response of the civilian government is providing space to the social service wings of militant organisations to fill the gap, thus broadening their political base. Destruction and militancy, it seems, are Siamese twins, as we observe the Falah-i-Insaniat Foundation, linked to Jamaatud Dawa, running 12 medical facilities and providing cooked food for 100,000 people every day, with plans to open shelters.

The idea of diverting money, as floated by officials, from public subsidies to the resource pool for relief efforts, may appear pragmatic but will not be appreciated in the long term by a public already reeling under burgeoning inflation. This is a potential threat to a vulnerable parliamentary democracy. The floods pose more questions than provide answers to each institution responsible for planning cities and land management in the affected areas.

Every year, Pakistan is hit by one disaster or another. Major calamities have included earthquakes, landslides, floods, drought, cyclones and sea intrusion. Monsoons are a regular feature of Pakistan’s predominantly agrarian society. During the 1973 floods, more than three million houses were destroyed while in 1976 floods demolished over 10 million houses. In 1998 the floods resulted in damage to property to the tune of Rs17bn, and Rs50bn in 1992. The official death toll in the 2001 floods was 210 and in 2003 it was 230.

Handcuffed by their respective mandates, the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the Federal Flood Commission and the NDMA are trying to blame each other. Though NDMA is doing its best, it has its own challenges regarding the availability of funds by donors. So, the question is, after having so much experience with disasters, do we have long-term, inclusive and coherent institutional arrangements to address disaster issues successfully? Power circles have the tendency to label all man-made disasters as natural, to absolve all those who are responsible for lack of preparation and poor coordination.

For rehabilitation and damage need assessment the relevant institutions will need data on CNIC holders, housing, livestock and all the people. The last census was held in 1998. The headcount exercise was due in 2008 but was not conducted because of reasons best known to our officials. The question is: in the absence of such crucial numbers, how will the relevant departments devise a compensation policy and prioritise rehabilitation efforts? We have bad memories of compensation money from the 2005 earthquake.

There exists a relationship between demography, underdevelopment, environmental degradation and disasters. This relationship needs to be understood. We have to ask why housing societies and cantonments are allowed near catchments areas and riverbeds. Why are people allowed to settle in kachha areas alongside River Indus in the south? Then, there are reports that regular transportation of logs by the timber mafia via rivers has seriously damaged embankments. This may be the reason for canal breaches in the current floods and otherwise as well. The activities of the timber mafia are well known and need little discussion. Landslides are another outcome of this unlawful activity, in which many big shots are involved.

In the last 28 years Pakistan has seen 50 floods in which on average 136 persons have died. The 1990s was a period of response and in the new millennium there is at least talk of preparedness than response. Before these floods, many NGOs jumped onto the band wagon of disaster preparedness. The efficacy of programmes linked to this idea needs to be seriously debated and a comprehensive evaluation of such programmes should be conducted as the related projects involved much donor money. NGOs running micro-finance programmes in such areas should also come up with innovative solutions as the flood victims have lost almost everything and are not in a position to pay back loans.

The enormity of this disaster should lead to adequate measures. The need for an early warning system was recognised as early as 1947, but the country’s forecasting system is still inadequate.

The development mindset of the planners in Pakistan is at best insensitive towards environmental and ethical obligations. They treat ecology as a commodity and human beings as mere numbers. A market-based economy does not account for the cost of ecological destruction. The two major factors that turned the floods into calamity are market-oriented greedy development ventures and the diversion of the national income to non-development expenditures. The tragedy is another example of the catastrophe caused by an avaricious social order. Will the perpetrators be brought to book?

The writer has worked in disaster and emergency situations in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

mansooraza@gmail.com

__________________
Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________

Education in danger

Dawn Editorial
Thursday, 19 Aug, 2010

The state of education in Pakistan has never been very good. An even bleaker picture emerges when we factor in the effect of natural disasters and militancy on education.



The devastation caused by the ongoing floods has been commented on extensively. However, what may have escaped our attention is the fact that the floods have also left an already shaky educational system in tatters.



Although the exercise of collecting data on the number of schools affected in the flood-hit areas has yet to begin, it is clear that the government faces an uphill task in rebuilding the educational infrastructure in these places. Man-made disasters have also taken their toll on Pakistan’s education system.



Militancy, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has paralysed educational activities in several districts. Scores of schools have been bombed, with the extremists bearing particular animus towards girls’ education.



In fact, it has been reported that hundreds of schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, even in areas not affected by militancy, have closed down because of a shortage of teachers as educators are not interested in serving in far-flung areas.



Enrolment in government schools is also low, while the dropout rate is high. The failure of the public school system has been cited as one of the reasons for growing extremism in society.

Though it is repeatedly pointed out that the education sector suffers from resource constraints, the money that is available is not judiciously spent. A glaring example is of teachers who draw salaries but don’t actually bother to show up and teach. Setting things right in such a scenario will not be easy.



We must ask if the provinces are prepared to deal with the task of revamping the education sector made worse in many places by the floods. In the short term, while the government must provide food, shelter and medical care to flood-affected people it must also include educational needs in its rehabilitation plans.



Looking at the bigger picture, maladministration in schools and the leakage of funds meant for education must be strictly checked. The state must not lose sight of the importance of education in such times of crises.



Missing commission

Dawn Editorial
Thursday, 19 Aug, 2010

Five days after Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Mian Nawaz Sharif agreed to create a commission to supervise relief work, the ‘credible national body’ they talked of still remains an idea.



Their agreement in Islamabad on independence day was hailed by party workers in both camps. PML-N men were reportedly surprised at the ease with which the prime minister agreed to what basically was Mr Sharif’s idea. It was not a two-man decision, for the prime minister and the former prime minister were assisted by aides.



After two hours of deliberations, they agreed to set up what appeared to be a ‘super commission’ comprising ‘men of integrity’ to supervise transparency in the collection, management and distribution of relief goods meant for the millions displaced by the floods ravaging Pakistan.



Mr Gilani was even reported to have come up with some names that would run the commission. However, the commission has still not come into being, and observers doubt whether it will at all see the light of day.

In the first place, a new commission for flood relief work is not needed. The National Disaster Management Authority is already there, as are a number of other agencies. If there are bottlenecks in their operations and relief does not reach the distressed in time and in the required quantity, then one should show understanding, given the magnitude of the calamity.



Besides, there are scores of UN and foreign missions, Pakistani NGOs, provincial agencies and ‘banned’ religious organisations which are helping the displaced at local levels. Obviously, there is no coordination between them and there cannot be, because most of them operate locally and are doing what is possible.



Nevertheless, there is evidence that they have put their shoulder to the wheel. All these agencies have accountability mechanisms of their own and are responsible to their own headquarters in Pakistan and abroad.



Putting them all under one management with headquarters in Islamabad or Lahore is not only impractical, it will inhibit freedom of action and circumscribe their commendable work under trying circumstances. This would be unfair to them and to the sufferers.

What the nation has not failed to note is the inability of the two mainstream parties to mobilise their own party workers for the relief work.



While some small parties are already in the field and helping the needy, the people are sorry to see the PPP and PML-N interested only in gaining political mileage from the nation’s misery instead of facing the challenge head on. The ‘super commission’ was merely a talking point.




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The journey’s over for Tony Blair By John Harris

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Thursday, 19 Aug, 2010
FIRST, it was The Journey — then, supposedly for fear of seeming messianic, the definite article became indefinite. There again, just to prove that Tony Blair perhaps thinks of himself as being that bit closer to the Almighty than most of us, last week brought news that A Journey will be available in a super-expensive edition — £150, if you’re interested — said to be suggestive of a religious text.

Should you want either a bog-standard or biblical edition signed by the man-god himself, you should be at the London Piccadilly branch of Waterstone’s bookshop on Sept 8, but please bear in mind the already legendary restrictions: no bags, no mobiles, no photos, no personal dedications — and no guarantee that, even if you buy your book and get your special wristband, you will get to meet him.

And now this: with assurances from his PR people that the money was always destined for a good cause, sudden news that “all proceeds” from the book will be going to a Royal British Legion facility for injured soldiers.

Though Blair answered the Chilcot inquiry’s question about any Iraq-related regrets in the negative, the move surely points up a much more complicated set of feelings — or, if you want to be truly cynical, a shallow calculation about how the public might start to view him in a more sympathetic light. Whichever, it is some token of how damaged Blair is that any supportive responses have been all but drowned out by something else entirely: massed marvelling at his post-Downing Street existence.

So, in no particular order: five homes, including the Blairs’ £3.7m pad in London’s Connaught Square, expanded when an adjacent £800,000 mews property was “knocked through”; two other high-end London pads occupied by sons Nicky and Euan Blair; and that £5.75m home county seat.

High-paying roles with JP Morgan and Zurich Financial Services. Six-figure fees for after-dinner engagements and millions received in return for “global strategic assistance”, under the auspices of something called Tony Blair Associates. Tied up in those terrifying complex financial arrangements: wealth already estimated to be as much as £60m.

Whether his fabulous existence brings him endless joy or Midas-like emptiness is an interesting question. But a more important point is that in this case, the personal is inevitably political, because Blair’s lifestyle also serves to undermine his own government’s record. Each time he crash-lands in the headlines New Labour is once again a byword for excess, the blurring of public office and private privilege.

In for the long haul

By Michael O’Hanlon
Thursday, 19 Aug, 2010

SO how committed is the United States to the war in Afghanistan, and more generally to the security of South Asia?

Pakistani friends understandably have their doubts — going back not only to President Obama’s Dec 1 speech last year when he spoke of beginning a withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by July 2011, but to previous difficult periods when America’s commitment to South Asia wavered.

Try as they might, US cabinet secretaries and battlefield commanders cannot put this issue to rest. In recent interviews, Gen David Petraeus tried again, from his new perch as commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, underscoring the need for patience and implying that American resolve to succeed in this effort would go past next year.Yet in the American press, and in South Asia, his words have also led to yet another round of debate about what Washington really intends. This confusion is not surprising; after all, it was just a few months ago when a new book by Jonathan Alter quoted Vice President Biden as predicting (wrongly, in my view) that lots of US troops would be leaving Afghanistan by next summer.

In fact, President Obama has been trying to have it both ways to an extent. He wants to suggest staying power — but also wants to reassure Americans that the war will not last forever, and wants to signal to Afghan officials that they must do their part to accelerate reforms if they want to count on the United States for the long haul.

So the Afghanistan war is vital, but we are already also planning to start ending it by a certain date. The American troop buildup is large and fast, but also temporary. The Nato mission in Afghanistan is ambitious, but also limited in scope. These conflicting ideas may not be contradictions, but they certainly contain a good deal of policy tension within them — and they certainly can lead to confusion.

I believe the various ideas can be reconciled with each other; indeed, I believe one can even sketch out the rough plan for reducing US and Nato forces in Afghanistan over the next few years based on what is publicly known about the Afghan-ISAF military strategy. But before attempting that, it is also worth revisiting some of the other comments administration figures have made about the war’s likely longevity to add further texture to the discussion. Consider:

— “We will help by working with our Afghan partners to strengthen institutions at every level of Afghan society so that we don’t leave chaos behind when our combat troops begin to depart ... the additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.

“Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground.” (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Dec 3, 2009.)

— “Beginning to transfer security responsibility to the Afghans in summer 2011 is critical — and, in my view, achievable. This transfer will occur district by district, province by province, depending on conditions on the ground ... Even after we transfer security responsibility to the Afghans and draw down our combat forces, the United States will continue to support their development as an important partner for the long haul.

“We will not repeat the mistakes of 1989, when we abandoned the country only to see it descend into civil war, and then into Taliban hands….” (Secretary of Defence Robert Gates, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Dec 3, 2009.)

— “…beginning in 2011, July, we will start bringing those troops down and turning over more and more responsibility to Afghan security forces that we are building up. But we are not suddenly, as of July 2011, finished with Afghanistan.” (President Barack Obama, May 12, 2010, joint press conference with President Hamid Karzai, Washington, DC.)

The most logical way to make sense of all this confusion coming out of Washington, some of it perhaps deliberate and some inadvertent, is as follows. First, President Obama does intend a gradual, careful drawdown of US forces from Afghanistan beginning next summer. He does not intend a precipitate withdrawal.

Second, as Afghan forces improve over the coming year, the gradual drawdown should in fact be possible — as long as its pace remains flexible (and probably quite slow at first).

Third, my calculations suggest that we might still need 80,000 or more US troops in Afghanistan at the end of 2011, more than 50,000 at the end of 2012, and perhaps half that number still at the end of 2013 — and I have no reason to believe that the White House or Pentagon disagrees with this assessment.

Fourth, however, should we collectively fail to achieve any substantial progress in the stabilisation effort between now and July, all bets are off. Mr Obama reserves the right to consider a Plan B that might involve faster reductions in American combat power as we recognise that the original goals of the mission have become unattainable.

That last possibility is unlikely, however. As commander in chief, Barack Obama has declared South Asia his top national security priority, and he has now presided over a tripling of US military personnel in Afghanistan since entering the Oval Office. These are enormous indications of his resolve and are too frequently under-appreciated. The smart money is on a long, patient American commitment to this war and this region for many years to come.

The writer is author of the new Foreign Affairs essay ‘Staying Power’ and coauthor of Toughing It Out in Afghanistan and Brookings’ Pakistan and Afghanistan indices.

__________________
Be shak, Main tery liye he jeeta hoon or tery liye he marta hoon.....!(Baba Fareed)
____________Punjab Police Zindabaad____________