The Raymond Davis case: Emotion and realpolitik

February 18th, 2011

The latest on the Raymond Davis case is that US Senator John Kerry has come to Pakistan and tried to smooth ruffled feathers. He said that the case should not jeopardise US-Pakistan relations, but stuck to the American position that Mr Davis has diplomatic immunity and should not have been arrested, nor should he be tried in a Pakistani court.

The January 27 incident in which American citizen Raymond Davis shot dead two Pakistanis, and where a third Pakistani was crushed by a car sent by the US consulate to Mr Davis’s help, has spiralled into a crisis of relations between Pakistan and America. The media has highlighted the details of the case and has engaged the emotions of the people, thus giving a handle to the opposition to embarrass and humiliate the federal government.

The status of Mr Davis is disputed between Pakistan and the US, the former divided on how to tackle the matter and the latter proclaiming that he is covered by the immunity clauses of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. In the national discourse, it is not so much the legalities of the case that are being highlighted but the matter of ‘qaumi viqar’ and ‘qaumi ghairat’ (national honour). The case against Mr Davis is being heard at the sessions court, where the police seems to have indicted the accused on lines favoured by the collective emotion in Pakistan. At the Lahore High Court, which has put a lock on Mr Davis’s immunity by preventing his departure from Pakistan, the federal government will be required to state his real status.

Even as TV channels whipped up the national emotion — with just a few glimpses of the ‘variant’ point of view — the Punjab government decided to ‘go with the people’. As revealed by Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the federal government was resolved from the start to let Mr Davis go, but when it approached him, he told Islamabad that it had to now go through the court. The police in Lahore thereafter made a case against Mr Davis disallowing his claim that he acted in self-defence, though it did say that pistols were recovered from the two men he had shot dead.

Other events have complicated the situation, revealing a clear difference of opinion on the case. This has further served to isolate the PPP government and brought it under pressure. Shah Mahmood Qureshi, refusing to be a minister after a cabinet reshuffle, has controversially gone on record as disagreeing with the government on how to treat the Davis case. While swearing allegiance to the party, he decided to make public his opinion on the matter, knowing full well that it would be deeply embarrassing for the government. During his press conference on February 16, his position was expressed not in legal terms but in high emotion where he appealed to the nation “to stand up to America” and stop bending to its dictates.

Senator Kerry did not fail to note the difference of opinion. He referred to the position taken by PPP Information Secretary Fauzia Wahab, confirming that Mr Davis had immunity under the Vienna Convention. It matters little that later the Presidency disowned her opinion and she herself said that what she had said was her personal view. The message that went out was clear: the PPP government was ready to treat the matter with the pragmatism it deserved. If Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has officially told Mr Kerry that his government will let the courts decide the matter, thus adopting the position that Mr Davis had no immunity, a subliminal message of the opposite import has been registered with Ms Wahab’s statement.

The killings that have taken place at the hands of Mr Davis make the case unprecedented and the US government must take cognisance of that fact. But given even this, it would be wrong to insist that Pakistan should not act pragmatically, but in the name of ‘ghairat’. It is worth pointing out that Islamabad has often taken the middle course, or even looked the other way, when relations with friendly Arab countries or China have been at stake.

It is often stated in academic literature on foreign policy that the best course is to allow a lot of flexibility in the conduct of relations with other nations. High emotion and reference to national honour is usually avoided. But this point of view is undermined if the nation is sharply focused on foreign policy and nurtures intense negative feelings towards states that the national foreign policy has set up as important allies.

Extremism has put Pakistan on the defensive by making it adopt an isolationist world view. The world is increasingly concerned about Pakistan’s habit of diverting attention from the real and present danger of al Qaeda and Taliban, and focusing — in a fragmented way — on, to quote a common public refrain, “terrorism carried out by America in tandem with its secret allies, India and Israel”. The Jamaat-e-Islami has begun its agitation against the presumed release of Mr Davis and is appealing to the masses to “rise up” against this “national betrayal”. The Tehreek-i-Insaf has taken out processions to shore up its public position. Ironically, the Taliban, too, have warned against releasing Mr Davis.

Despite Senator Kerry’s assertion that US-Pakistan relations should not be affected by the current row over diplomatic immunity, the message from Washington is clear. The Republican-dominated US Congress wants curtailment of spending by the Obama administration, and the hatchet may fall on the crucial dollars Islamabad needs to push forward its increasingly bankrupt institutions. The economy is still showing a generally downward graph and the year 2011 may actually be a year of more economic instability than most morally-enraged TV anchors may realise.

Reference to honour is usually made on the eve of going to war because the high point of honour is martyrdom. On the other hand, flexibility of response is the characteristic of those who wish to survive in a harsh world. This sets up an opposed binary of honour and wisdom. Yet humanity remembers martyrdom where someone embraced death instead of compromising on principles. It seldom remembers occasions when wisdom (hikmat) has ensured survival under adverse circumstances. Both the US and Pakistan must find that middle ground of wisdom to prevent the current crisis in their relations.

May the best team win

February 19th, 2011

With the turbocharged Twenty20 cricket threatening to usurp One-Day Internationals (ODIs) as the game of choice for the casual cricket fan, the 2011 World Cup — starting today in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — assumes more importance than ever. We need to be convinced that ODIs still have a place in modern cricket. Perhaps, then, having 1990s relic Bryan Adams perform at the opening ceremony wasn’t the wisest choice for a game that needs to show it is in touch with the zeitgeist.

Now that the action is underway, though, there are plenty of intriguing storylines that are sure to entice viewers. Sachin Tendulkar, who has ruled international cricket for over two decades, is playing what must surely be his final World Cup. With the final to be played in his hometown of Mumbai, no neutral observer would be able to deny the undoubted pleasure they would get from watching him play a tournament-winning knock. While India are the slight favourites, another enticing aspect of this World Cup is its openness. The dominant Australians of the past are no more. Their sudden decline has opened the tournament up with at least six teams that could make a convincing case for their fortunes.

As much as we would love a competitive World Cup that showcases international cricket’s superstars at their finest, there is one thing that would give us even more pleasure: A Pakistan victory. The decline in Pakistan cricket can be traced back to the 2007 World Cup, when we were humiliated by Ireland and tragically lost coach Bob Woolmer in still unexplained circumstances. Since then, our team has lurched from one disaster to the other. Let’s not forget that Pakistan was supposed to be co-hosting the tournament, a distinction it regrettably lost after terrorists targeted the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. As our victory in the T20 Championships two years ago showed, if there is one constant in Pakistan cricket it is our ability to shock and surprise. As much as we want the best team to win the World Cup, here’s to hoping the best team is Pakistan.

Forgotten victims

February 19th, 2011

Terrible events take place in our country, generating large headlines and whipping up a public frenzy, with debates raging on TV channels and calls being made for justice to be delivered. The impression is that the event may actually bring about some kind of change in society as a result of the anger and emotion that is generated in response to such news. In actuality, however, this rarely happens. Events move on, the story is forgotten, and often, the victims slide back into dark shadows where they receive little attention or support from society.

Nearly six months from today, teenage brothers Muneeb and Mughees died in an incident of crazed mob violence in Sialkot. Debate continues as to whether or not the two young men were robbers. But this is completely unrelated to the point. No one, regardless of any crime he or she may have committed, deserves to be brutally beaten to death on the streets. We live not in a medieval fiefdom but in a state where there are courts and a constitutionally defined system of justice, intended to protect the rights of all citizens.

In practice, this does not happen. The case of Muneeb and Mughees lingers on in courts. It is impossible to predict when a verdict may come in. Their family has complained repeatedly of receiving death threats from those behind the dual murder. Some police protection has been offered — however, this adds to the financial burden on the family since they have to feed the constables three times a day. What is far more disturbing is the fact that nothing seems to change. The violence that has been rampaging though society continues to grow unchecked; people struggle to access justice. And, in this environment, there are always fears that yet another incident of a similar nature will take place sooner rather than later, putting more lives in jeopardy and adding to the list of tragic incidents of women being buried alive or alleged blasphemers killed, that stare out at us from the recent past.

A matter of extension

February 19th, 2011

One would have to most respectfully disagree with the Supreme Court’s suspension of a decision by the Parliamentary Committee on Appointment of Judges to refuse one-year extensions to four judges of the Lahore High Court. The judicial commission, which is headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan, had recommended an extension in the terms of four additional judges, but this was rejected by the parliamentary committee. The issue of appointing additional judges, on a fixed term, and then on granting them extensions, has been a controversial one for a number of years, well before Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry took charge as chief justice. However, it was the famed Judges Case of 1996 (Al-Jihad Trust vs Federation of Pakistan) which set a precedent that judges be appointed on the basis of seniority and that this principle was sacrosanct. It also laid down that, as far as possible, the government fill vacancies with permanent appointments and avoid posting judges in additional capacity since that could be interpreted as pressure on the judiciary by a government seeking to compromise the former’s independence. This is precisely why justices appointed to the US Supreme Court have a tenure that — barring ill health, proven moral turpitude or voluntary resignation — lasts for the rest of their life.

In addition to this, it is also worth pointing out that in recent days the apex court was seized with a case regarding appointments by the federal government of employees who had retired and who had been given extensions and were rehired on contract. The court, and rightly so, had directed the executive to act on this and rescind these contractual appointments since they, quite understandably, demoralised those officers who were waiting for promotion to the next level once their superiors retired from service. One would have to say, and with the utmost of respect, that a similar situation would seem to arise when judges who have already reached retirement age are given extensions.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Basant: Mixing ideology with law

February 20th, 2011

Basant has again run into trouble as the Punjab government has decided to retain its ban on kite-flying and the cottage industry linked to it. As on every past occasion, the ‘kite-flying associations’ have mourned, protested and even offered remedies to make the provincial government relent in its resolve to enforce the ban.

That the trouble is Punjab-specific is now quite clear. Other provinces are either strangers to kite-flying or have it on a scale that doesn’t bother the government. Outside Pakistan, it is catching on in Afghanistan; but in India, where it should have been widespread, it receives just normal attention. If we maintain that kite-flying is a Punjabi pastime, the other side of Punjab in India is quite unmoved by its Hindu-specific overtones.

This year, Lahore kite-flyers thought they could get Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif to let them have Basant on two days in the last week of February, but they have been disappointed. The ban has existed since 2005 and has been enforced quite strictly since 2007. Kite-flyers insist that accidents that occur during Basant have nothing to do with the sport, but with the administration of safety rules.

In Faisalabad, where the sport seems to have shifted from Lahore, 18 people were injured in one day. In all, 35 people have been arrested in 30 cases registered in connection with the violation of Section 144. The police seized 68 sacks of kite string, of which 40 were of chemically coated, and more than 8,000 kites.

The injuries were either caused by kite string or due to youths falling from roofs, but there were also injuries from stray bullets from celebratory firing of weapons into the air. This is not good news for the Punjab government, which is determined to lessen Basant-related damage to life and property. The hobby is not restricted to just Lahore, where it saw its high mark in the 1990s, but is spreading to cities where law enforcement is already quite weak.

Malpractices have crept into the art of making kites and string. The biggest harm is done by criminal elements who make metal string or coat the string with inflammable chemicals. Unbreakable imported string, existing only in fantasy in the past, is now a reality and can be bought without much trouble. On the other hand, the ability of state authorities to control illegal activity of all sorts — including possession and use of illegal weapons — has declined over the years and cannot be seen separately from the ‘weak state’ syndrome that overtook Pakistan during the 1900s and came to full flower in the 2000s.

Already, the enforcement of Section 144 against kite-flying is giving rise to incidents that make Punjab look like a police state. The religious lobbies who uphold the ban say Basant is a Hindu festival, mischievously staged to celebrate an incident of insult to the Holy Prophet (pbuh). This is nonsense. The fact is that Basant inflicts a lot of damage, including the damage to electrical systems of big cities through the use of metal string which makes Wapda claim crores of rupees per day from the government.

Kite-flying is part of culture and culture is entertainment for the not-so-rich among us. If this hobby is brought under control — like allowing it in designated places outside the congested urban environment — it can sustain countless people engaged in the cottage industry of kite-production, in addition to attracting special tourism from parts where Basant is not such a rage.

Above all, let us not mix ideology with law. In Afghanistan, the Taliban had banned kite-flying in the name of Islam. In Punjab, it is banned because of hazard to life and property. It is time Lahore did some lateral thinking and allowed kite-flying under special arrangements because its ability to police the ban is equally restricted. Why should an innocent seasonal pastime become a symbol of revolt against the state?

Judging the judges

February 20th, 2011

The controversy over the so-called PCO (Provisional Constitutional Order) judges continues. A seven-member Supreme Court (SC) bench has restrained seven sitting judges, who had taken oath under the PCO of November 3, 2007, from passing judicial orders. The case, involving an inter-court appeal filed by four of the judges against the contempt notices issued to the seven ‘PCO judges’, opens up a number of questions.

One of these is the issue of judges who had taken oath under previous PCOs. As the counsel for two of the judges who had petitioned against the contempt order noted, this included virtually every judge making up the apex court. Our history is laden with examples of oaths taken under PCOs, most often to serve the needs of dictators. There is also the issue of how a judge can be removed, with lawyers representing the ‘restrained’ judges arguing that in constitutional terms, only the Supreme Judicial Council can remove a judge.

The case creates a new cloud of doubt. Queries have been raised about the impartiality of courts, and the need to protect the dignity of judges has been stressed. The issuance by the discharged chief justice of the Peshawar High Court of an order summoning four SC judges had threatened to pit judges against each other. The possibility of this happening has not as yet been totally dispelled. Perhaps, more than anything else, we, as a country, need a judiciary that is regarded as being completely above board and is capable of granting people access to justice. Even though the Chief Justice speaks with logic when he points out that past wrongs need to be corrected, the method of going about this needs to be above board and as far above controversy as possible. This can be achieved only by sticking to the clauses of the Constitution, abiding by what they lay down both in letter and in spirit and doing everything possible to build the faith of the people in the judiciary as an institution devoted to upholding the law but steering clear of matters that could be said to lie beyond a belt of stormy waters.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Dangerous doings

February 21st, 2011

How far away is Pakistan from its next tryst with disaster? Another attack on foreign soil launched from Pakistan would inevitably leave the country still more isolated and contribute to the notion that it has become the world’s centre of terrorist activity. For this reason, a recent statement by the director of the US National Counterterrorism Centre before a Senate intelligence hearing that the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) could strike in the US and Europe — as it had in Mumbai in 2008 — should not be dismissed as an example of American paranoia. If we look at the matter with any degree of honesty, we all know there are groups operating in our midst who present a real danger, not only to the outside world but also to us. Terrorist attacks and suspicions of the involvement of Pakistani groups damage us — in terms of our international standing, in terms of our economy and in terms of credibility.

We need to think more carefully about why we continue to allow the LeT and other forces to function. There can be little doubt that our intelligence agencies and security forces know exactly what kind of activity they are involved in. It is not just terrorist violence but also their preaching of hatred that presents a threat. By doing so, they fan extremism and also, directly or indirectly, encourage other groups which have been involved in the various attacks we have seen in our own country. It seems to be an act of self-destruction to allow these outfits to function, and, in some cases, run huge centres — in Punjab and elsewhere — from where they conduct their activities. The risk we run by pursuing this policy is great. Sooner or later, some other act of militancy will take place, adding to the threat that already endangers our country more than any other. We must act to push it away and save ourselves from a plunge into a still greater state of crisis, as the impression that Pakistan promotes militancy grows more firmly entrenched in the world’s collective mind.

Justice for rape victims

February 21st, 2011

At a press conference in Karachi, representatives of War Against Rape (WAR) revealed the shocking statistic that only three per cent of rape cases in the city result in convictions against the accused. This absurdly low conviction rate is also an indictment of the entire system, including the police, prosecutors and a public that seems not to be too bothered by the issue. There are many reforms that need to be immediately instituted if rape survivors are to be given justice.

The problem starts with rape victims trying to file FIRs. In far too many cases, the police choose not to register an FIR immediately, instead passing judgment on the character of the victim. This allows alleged culprits enough time to make a run for it and evade justice. Even if an FIR is registered, there are major technological hurdles to securing a conviction. The victim’s testimony alone is rarely enough to convince judges. But corroborating evidence in the form of medico-legal examinations is not always forthcoming. DNA testing is still a rarity in Pakistan and so many rape cases result in acquittals simply because of lack of evidence. This leads to rape survivors often choosing to accept out-of-court settlements rather than relying on a fickle justice system. Ideally, the guilty should not be allowed to avoid jail time with an out-of-court settlement.

Societal attitudes, too, need to be changed to improve the rate of convictions in rape cases. The reason why the police are quick to label rape survivors as morally loose women or sex workers is because they, like the rest of the country, have fallen victim to religious propaganda. The lack of female policemen, prosecutors and judges — in a society which doesn’t encourage women to take up these professions — also contributes to the low conviction rate. This denial of justice should shock our conscience and lead to immediate action so rape victims can have their day in court.

Floods and food

February 21st, 2011

The lifeline offered to Pakistan’s flood victims through WFP food distribution programmes has been severed and is in danger of being suspended entirely. The agency suffers a shortfall of $548 million and has been unable to keep up food supplies in flood-hit areas — in part due to procurement issues caused by the rising global prices of food. The WFP had been hit earlier by terrorism, notably a suicide bombing in December 2010 near a food handout point at Khar in Bajaur Agency, which killed 45 people and forced a suspension of operations in the area. While many flood victims have been able to return to their homes, an estimated 600,000 remain displaced in Balochistan while water still stands in some villages in Sindh. While the cash now being handed out by the WFP to allow victims to purchase their own food will bring some benefits, it will also pose problems for many households still dependent on the food they received.

Indeed, especially from Sindh, where the floods have led to a greater assessments of social realities and more interest from international agencies, there is evidence that people had been in acute need of food even before the flood. A Sindh government survey, supported by Unicef, has found high levels of malnutrition among children and women. Experts engaged in relief work in the province believe this is the result of years of poverty and deprivation, rather than of the flood alone.

Groups in the country have also pointed out that official policies with regard to flood victims have been deeply flawed. The delays in repairing infrastructure, lack of transparency in the distribution of aid and issues with the handing out of compensation to those whose homes have been damaged rank among the issues listed. While factors such as the global recession have played a role in funding constraints, it is conceivable that perceptions about Pakistan’s ability to deal with crises or ensure accountability have contributed to this — and these are matters we need to give serious thought to as we ponder our ability to deal with fresh catastrophe in the future.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A time of instability

February 22nd, 2011

Only the politicians are congratulating themselves, as the country lurches towards what may well become a terminal politico-economic phase. On February 18, while addressing his party echelons from the PML-N strongholds in Punjab, Nawaz Sharif announced that the PPP government had not implemented his 10-point agenda. Earlier, he had hinted at some kind of “million march” if the PPP did not implement it, at times sounding as if he will join the agitation already being choreographed by some smaller but more vociferous parties. Whatever he may do, some kind of fat is in the fire, and it might begin with the PPP getting kicked out from the Punjab coalition.

All this will be “in the national interest”, as Mr Sharif put it. The same day, however, the PPP pulled off an extraordinary change of hearts in Karachi. It patched up with the MQM and got its firebrand home minister, Zulfiqar Mirza, to accompany Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah and Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik to MQM headquarters, where the two parties acted as if they had never quarrelled with each other. Altaf Hussain, who had not long ago recommended a mixture of the French Revolution and a partial coup d’état, Pakistani style, against the PPP, went out of his way to pledge the MQM’s loyalty to the PPP-led coalition in Sindh.

After this bit of patching up with the MQM in Sindh, the Sindh home minister said that if any harm came to PPP offices in Punjab — a reference to what the Sharifs had indicated a couple of days ago — the PPP would respond in kind to PML-N offices in Sindh. Such bluster is hardly going to create an atmosphere of camaraderie between the two parties who are in a coalition in Punjab. The message was: The PPP will complete its three years in office and the guarantee of that was the party’s reconciliation with the MQM.

We don’t know how party chief Asif Ali Zardari managed this patch-up, but it must have required some deep massage of the ruffled ANP ego, which stands opposed to the MQM in Karachi’s lawless environment where ‘bipartisan’ target killing is the order of the day. There is no doubt that the reconciliation was ordered by the president. But it is also certain that Mr Hussain in London had got something that he wanted in Karachi, possibly a movement to his party’s liking in the local government in the city. Of course, all of this indicates that the president took seriously the threat that midterm elections could be held in another six months time.

The MQM must have been chastened by the maltreatment it had received at the hands of an ungrateful PML-N, after going along with it on the issue of the RGST and petrol prices to bring the PPP to its knees. Will the PPP now be able to keep its government afloat, with IMF-mandated taxation and ending of the subsidy on petrol? More and more state-owned institutions and corporations are bankrupt and there are departments where employees are not getting their salaries. If the PPP thought it could reach out to America for additional help by letting Raymond Davis go, that, too, has been thwarted by its allies.

The PPP is working on its other protean ally, the JUI-F, to finally put to rest the fear of being ousted from government through a no-confidence vote. All things considered, the price could well be very steep this time around, given the rhetoric of Maulana Fazlur Rehman about returning to the thorny embrace of Jamaat-e-Islami through a revival of the MMA. This is the most pristine state of terminal political instability in a country faced with terrorism — our own, through state-supported jihadis, as well as that inflicted by the Taliban and al Qaeda — and a rapidly dwindling writ of the state. The PML-N, which has shown signs of pragmatic behaviour in the past, is pushing the government against the wall, hoping that, after it falls, the PML-N will be able to use options it has prevented the PPP from taking. We can only hope that the current acrimony doesn’t lead to such an outcome.

Kasab’s death sentence

February 22nd, 2011

In upholding the death sentence handed down to Ajmal Kasab for his involvement in the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, the Bombay High Court has unsurprisingly made the correct and obvious decision. The preponderance of evidence against Kasab was so damning, including telephone conversations and CCTV footage, that even the most committed conspiracy theorist would find it impossible to exonerate Kasab. Anyone pleading for mercy should remember that 156 people were killed in the attacks and Kasab was given more than ample opportunity to defend himself in a fair and open trial. Kasab can still appeal his verdict in the Indian Supreme Court and appeal for clemency from the Indian president, although neither of these options is unlikely to lead to relief.

The verdict should have come as an opportunity for India to put the devastating terror attack behind them and get some measure of closure. Thanks to Pakistan, though, they have been denied even that. While Kasab might be facing capital punishment, his patrons and the masterminds of the Mumbai attacks, the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), are still operating freely in Pakistan. The courts in Pakistan released the LeT leader, operating under the Jamaatud Dawa banner, Hafeez Saeed from house arrest in 2009 and the government seems reluctant to file charges against Saeed. During the recent flood, the Jamaatud Dawa was given a free hand to carry out relief work, further bolstering their popularity.

Given that the LeT was formed with the help of the army and the intelligence agencies and that it received funding and logistical support from them, there is a justifiable fear that Pakistan is still hoping to use the terrorist organisation as a tool in its geopolitical strategy. It is no secret that the military still sees India as Pakistan’s chief long-term threat. Even with terrorism ravaging the country, it would not be a shock if the military establishment was nurturing and protecting the LeT for future use. If that is indeed the case, all the recent peace overtures between the two countries will came to naught. And we will have no one but ourselves to blame.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Game over for Qaddafi

February 23rd, 2011

For all dictators, it seems, the end is similarly ignominious. After security forces killed nearly 200 protestors in Libya, eccentric ruler Moammar Qaddafi’s son, Seif, took to the airwaves to deliver a speech blaming the uprising on drug dealers, drunk kids and agents of foreign powers. Its obliviousness recalled Hosni Mubarak’s speech the day before he was forced to resign and even Pervez Musharraf’s ramblings during the lawyers’ movement. Libya, it appears, is going to be the latest domino to fall in the Middle East and Africa after the fall of the dictatorial regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. Since then, at least 100 more people have been killed and waves of Libyan diplomats have abandoned the regime.

With similar protests erupting in Bahrain and Yemen, there is no doubt that the democratisation forces are taking succour from the success of their Muslim brethren. After spending decades under autocratic rule, people have just had enough. They blame their kleptocratic rulers for their economic miseries and, more than anything, they just want their dignity back and have the right to choose their own leaders. But success in Libya is far from certain. Unlike in Egypt, the security forces seem to still be loyal to Qaddafi. Should the protests continue, a horrible massacre is possible, even likely. For this revolutionary movement to succeed, the Libyan army and police will have to decide that prolonging the rule of an autocrat is not worth the price of Libyan blood.

What has become clear over the past few weeks is that with advances in technology, dictators will find it harder than ever to hold on to power. There is no single explanation for why these protests have suddenly erupted and been so successful but there is no denying that the rise of Arab satellite channel Al Jazeera has helped open up previously hermetic societies. The use of social networking sites like Facebook has made organising demonstrations easier. Now that the people have spoken, it is up to the rest of the world to support them. Pakistan could start by renaming its cricket stadium in Lahore.

Raymond Davis: The plot thickens

February 23rd, 2011

The expected additional information on the antecedents of CIA agent Raymond Davis, carrying a US diplomatic passport, has complicated the case of murder against him at a Lahore sessions court. His cell phone has revealed contacts with two ancillaries of al Qaeda in Pakistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and sectarian Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), which has led to the public conclusion that he was behind terrorism committed against Pakistan’s security personnel and its people .

This revelation is strengthened by the admission appearing in the hitherto self-gagged American press that he was a CIA ‘contractor’ working ‘under cover’. The complication introduced into the Raymond Davis affair is that high functionaries in Punjab are now suggesting that he be tried in a military court. This will strike people as America in cahoots with the Taliban and al Qaeda against the state of Pakistan targeting, as one official opined, Pakistan’s nuclear installations.

The American side is referring Davis’s presence in Pakistan under a “secret agreement” between Pakistan and the US which allowed “clandestine CIA operations” in Pakistan. This agreement was entered into by General Musharraf and his military hierarchy, including the ISI, “to make the Americans believe that Islamabad was not secretly helping the Taliban insurgents”. The military establishment also allowed the CIA “to acquire the services of private security firms, including Blackwater and DynCorp, to conduct surveillance on the Taliban and al Qaeda.”

The American press, while disclosing these facts, however, is hinting at Pakistani acquiescence in the activities of agents like Raymond Davis. It is quite obvious that the two sides are putting a different gloss on what Raymond Davis was doing in Pakistan. The American side thinks he was trailing terrorists likely to strike at the US, which included maintaining contacts with them. The Pakistani side thinks he was actually in collusion with the terrorists and could be planning terrorist attacks against innocent Pakistani citizens. In Pakistan, this difference of interpretation is bound to introduce complications into the legal case being heard by a Lahore court. The American establishment is desperately trying to prevent Davis’s case from taking a new anti-American direction.

The question to ask is that if the two sides were under indeed a ‘secret agreement’, what has happened now to change this anti-terrorism relationship? Having said that, it is worth repeating that countries often deploy their intelligence personnel overseas and usually the host nation is kept fully informed of such deployment — this applies to Pakistan as well, which may have such operatives in foreign posts, quite like Mr Davis, though their tasks may be widely divergent. The point is that the host nation is usually aware of the presence of operatives who often work under diplomatic cover, something that Washington is claiming for Davis.

Recent reports have made it clear that relations between the ISI and CIA were at their lowest ebb. Some observers in Pakistan had speculated that the drone attacks stopped after the arrest of Davis because of disruption of relations between the two intelligence agencies, though the Americans have said that this is due to bad weather. At the political level, too, there was a cooling off after the Pakistan Army resolutely opposed the American advice that it attack North Waziristan. Is the current crisis, as symbolised by the Davis case, an offshoot of this quarrel?

If it is, it should be resolved at the levels where the two countries engage in consultations. After that, the case in Lahore should be looked at objectively. Because of the public passion and the way the indictment of Raymond Davis has been put together by the police, no one outside Pakistan will consider it a fair trial. Of course, there are larger issues beyond Raymond Davis — and these relate to the whole structure or edifice, so to speak, under which states permits intelligence operatives of other countries on their soil. This, rather than the question of immunity, is something that critics of the government’s handling of the Raymond Davis case need to look into.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Deprivation unveiled

February 24th, 2011

The fact that millions of people in our country are deprived, is really no surprise. All of us, almost daily, see some evidence of this deprivation in one form or the other. But even then, when the harsh reality of figures is put before us, it comes as something of a shock. The latest Human Development Index (HDI) — ironically enough, devised and launched by Pakistani economist Mahbubul Haq in 1990 — put out by the United Nations Development Programme, is no less saddening than that of previous years. From its rank of 123 last year, Pakistan has slumped to 125th place among 169 countries, just a few points separating it from a group of nations — many lying in the desolate desert lands of sub-Saharan Africa — which record the lowest HDI scores in the world.

We learn from the report that three in 10 people lack access to healthcare; five in 10 to education; a large number live on degraded land which can produce little in terms of food crops. The PPP government has not released official poverty figures, but Planning Commission economists in 2007-08 had estimated it stood at around 40 per cent. In terms of human rights abuses, Pakistan again fares poorly, standing just a miniscule step above the countries with the worst levels of satisfaction. In this women are particularly worse off. There are other figures in the report that can be cited to describe our litany of woes. So, too, can figures from other nations in the region that have made far better progress. But this, in some ways, is pointless. Sadly, we know just how badly off we are.

The question we need to ask is why this state of affairs has come about. It is true that there are linkages with poor governance over many decades, as well as failures to make the needs of people a priority, coupled with excessive defence spending. But even then, to come up with so dismal a record given that we possess both resources and skills, is alarming. Our priority for the future must be to change the HDI ranking and scramble higher up the ladder by granting people a better life than the one they lead now.

Verdict on Godhra

February 24th, 2011

Nine years after the incident, 31 people have been found guilty by a Gujarati court for burning down the Sabarmati Express in Godhra, while another 63 were acquitted due to conflicting testimony. In 2002, the Sabarmati Express was carrying mainly Hindu pilgrims back from Ayodhya when it was set upon by a mob of hundreds. Nearly 60 pilgrims died and it was widely assumed, correctly as it happens, that Muslims were responsible. This led to widespread massacres of Muslims in Gujarat — encouraged by the state’s chief minister, Narendra Modi — that took nearly 2,000 Muslim lives.

While justice may have been belatedly served in the Godhra case, Modi is still in charge in Gujarat and has become the state’s longest-serving chief minister. His conduct during the anti-Muslim pogroms of 2002 was so egregious that the US cancelled his visa on the grounds of ‘severely violating religious freedom’. Yet, Modi has been investigated by the Indian Supreme Court and found to have held no responsibility for the massacres. Modi has always been an odious character. Few remember that he initially blamed the Godhra attack on a “cross-border conspiracy”. That has now been shown to be manifestly untrue.

Justice has not been available for most of those killed in the Gujarat violence. Four public enquiries and countless trials have been held to apportion blame and responsibility for the massacres. But anti-Muslim sentiment in Gujarat lingers to this day, to the point that most of the trials dating back to that violent period have to be conducted out of the state. Many of those directly responsible for attacking Muslims during those fateful two months have been found guilty and locked up. But the politicians who egged them on and the police that turned a blind eye got off scot-free. Until they are held accountable, Gujarat will not be able to turn its back on this bloody era and move on.

Remittances and hope

February 24th, 2011

A pioneering new study commissioned by the Pakistan government and carried out by the International Organization of Migration, finds that remittances from overseas can quite dramatically change the quality of life for households that receive them, allowing families to pull children out of labour, purchase land or agricultural implements, pay for marriages or put them in savings. The small-scale study looks at 500 households in nine high-migration districts of the country and in Azad Kashmir. Its findings show the average total remittances received per household from the time the migrants went abroad were Rs 1.05 million.

The study offers us a better understanding of why so many people are determined to go abroad, sometimes putting their lives at risk to do so. We have heard accounts of stowaways and of those captured, or killed, by border guards while attempting to move across international frontiers. The small, dusty town of Taftan on the Balochistan-Iran border is a place where a number of such journeys begin. Some end not very far away. But the desperation of people to reach venues overseas remains unchanged, with a huge, illegal trade in the business flourishing in towns such as Gujranwala, where false documents of every kind are prepared.

Given, however, the highly positive impact remittances can have on families, offering roads towards development and social progress, the report recommends policy steps for the government. It suggests that the process of migration be made simpler and steps be taken to limit the exploitative role of middlemen who bank on the desperation of people. The study also calls for a bigger effort to channelise money coming home through the formal banking system, rather than the ‘hundi’ networks favoured by many and points out that money sent in from Saudi Arabia and other countries can quite significantly alter the fortunes of those able to send a member of their family overseas, with even unskilled labourers earning far more than they would at home.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A terrible example

February 25th, 2011

It is mindboggling that PML-N MNA Anjum Aqeel Khan will be let off after simply agreeing to pay back the sum of Rs5.8 billion, in cash or in kind, to the National Police Foundation (NPF) after he admitted to the FIA that he had been involved in defrauding the Foundation. It is worth pointing out that the MNA did this a few days prior to when the case was to be heard by the Supreme Court. At the time of the alleged fraud, the MNA was the Foundation’s real estate broker and entered politics shortly afterwards.

The incredulous thing to consider in this case is that this man, who actively engaged in a fraud, and who only confessed and agreed to pay up after he was close to being prosecuted in the Supreme Court, will, in effect, be let off free because he agreed to a plea bargain. But should someone who embezzles such a large amount, and who by his own admission is guilty, be let off without a court trial? To what extent do plea bargains apply? Has the culture of corruption become so pervasive that we consider Rs5.8 billion a small amount? In any other country, a member of parliament who did such a thing would not just have had to pay back the amount in full, he would be disqualified and barred from public office and face a court trial and, quite possibly, a stiff prison sentence. It is ironic that the MNA is a member of the PML-N, which wastes no opportunity in pointing fingers at the ruling PPP, accusing it of corruption.

The entire drama of ‘confess and return the billions and you will be let off scot-free’ is reminiscent of several controversial cases dating back to General Pervez Musharraf’s rule, when even a former naval chief was let off after he agreed to a plea bargain. At the very least, his own party needs to expel him and the Election Commission should act on its own and unseat and disqualify the legislator. This will set a good precedent and could prevent other would-be members of parliament from indulging in such unethical and criminal actions. In addition to this, the system whereby those accused of major financial crimes are allowed to accept guilty pleas in exchange for returning the money embezzled, with no provision for jail time, needs to be reviewed.

Well played, but some advice

February 25th, 2011

Pakistani fans could be forgiven for suffering a depressing bout of déjà vu. As we limped through the first 10 overs and lost both our opening batsmen, the performance was reminiscent of our disastrous tournament-ending loss to Ireland in 2007. Thankfully, normal service was soon resumed and Pakistan dominated the rest of the match. Younus Khan, Misbahul Haq and the Akmal brothers scored half-centuries, taking their team to a total beyond 300. Skipper Shahid Afridi then ran through the Kenyan batting line-up, picking up five wickets while conceding only 16 runs. Yes, it was a comprehensive victory, but recall that the Kenyans scored only 69 in their first match against New Zealand.

Thanks to the vagaries of the tournament structure, Pakistan can afford to lose their next match against Sri Lanka on February 26. In fact, we now only have to beat minnows Canada and Zimbabwe to make it through to the quarter-finals. But Sri Lanka is one of the favourites for the World Cup and a win against them would be morale boosting and could help us face an easier opponent in the quarter-finals.

There are a couple of changes we might have to make to compete with the Sri Lankans, who are sure to be full of self-confidence, given that they are playing at home and their batsmen are in good form. The match against Kenya showed that Abdul Razzaq, in the twilight of his career, does not possess the speed to be an effective opening bowler. And by putting our two biggest hitters, Afridi and Razzaq, at numbers seven and eight in the batting line-up, we are denying ourselves the opportunity to get the most of their talents. If Afridi puts himself at the top of the order and brings in Wahab Riaz as an opening bowler, we might just have a chance against the mighty Sri Lankans.

State of paranoia

February 25th, 2011

The interior minister’s remarks before the National Assembly that artists, employees and students on scholarships going to India would require a No-Objection Certificate (NOC) from the government are hardly reassuring. They reflect the kind of paranoid mindset we very badly need to get away from, but Rehman Malik has indicated that the threat to integrity faced by the nation makes these changes necessary. Alterations are to be made in passport forms to accommodate the new measures.

This is not the first time we have heard from the interior minister about a threat from India. The issue has come up previously in the context of events in Balochistan and allegations that they were being orchestrated from across the border. Mr Malik — like other hawks in the country — apparently believes all evil stems from India. But even so, making it more difficult for people to travel to India seems grossly unfair. Even as things stand now, obtaining visas and meeting other requirements is no easy task. The singling out of artists and students seems to be an especially retrogressive step. Many artists have brought honour to Pakistan by winning a huge fan following in India — Junoon, Ali Zafar, Atif Aslam and Rahat Fateh Ali Khan come to mind.

As for students, especially in certain disciplines, the opportunity to study in India should be encouraged, given the economic saving involved and the opportunity to learn at a high level. At a broader level, Pakistan desperately needs more interaction with India and Indians. The tightly closed borders between the two countries need to be opened up so that the damaging history of animosity between the two countries can be replaced by a more productive relationship which could help both nations combat terrorism and also benefit people on either side of a border that has stood closed for far too many decades, contributing to the damaging building up of distrust.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A final parting of ways?

February 26th, 2011

To the more cynical, the end of the coalition between the PML-N and the PPP in Punjab was perhaps only to be expected, given developments in recent days. The Sharfis’-led PML-N has been publicly unhappy with the short shrift that it claims its views had been given by the ruling PPP. However, it should know that it is in opposition at the centre and hence to expect that its demand would be accepted and implemented upon by a government of which it was not even a part of was perhaps a bit much. That anger and resentment had perhaps now led to a separation between it and the PPP in Punjab.

The Sharifs have had differences with the PPP on such issues as the levy of the reformed general sales tax (RGST) and the phasing out of the petrol subsidy. A stand against either is based on populism and ignores the economic soundness of each proposal. The government, regardless of which political party runs it, cannot sustain itself unless it a) widens the tax net and brings more people under it and b) phases out billions of rupees in annual subsidies that are not necessarily targeting the poor or financially weaker segments of society. Its failure to commit to both is perhaps the primary reason why Pakistan finds itself in a precariously financial situation with a fiscal deficit that has become so much out of control that already-reduced social sector development has been slashed even further. And as this has happened, the defence budget has been quietly increased, with no one in parliament, least of all the PML-N making a fuss about it.

As for the RGST, there was much disinformation circulated on it since it wouldn’t have increased the tax rate by more than one percentage point, which by any yardstick is not that much of a significant rise. However, it would have brought large segments of hitherto undocumented sectors of the economy — perhaps a key constituency of the PML-N’s — under the tax net. This would have been the preferred option to follow because it reduces our fiscal deficit, lowers inflationary pressures by cutting down on government borrowings from the State Bank to finance its expenditures (and this is done by printing more money) and keeps under check Pakistan’s dependence on foreign aid. The last point, in particular, is an important one because it is linked to our sovereignty as a state and this in turn is a big issue these days with the Raymond Davis affair. In a sense, and some of our readers may not like this (but the logic is sound and cannot be denied), when the Americans tell us that were Pakistanis to pay their taxes honestly, there would not be such a need for foreign aid, and hence they would be freer to act without foreign pressure, they are right. Moving on to the issue of corruption, the PML-N is dismayed by the record of the PPP on it. However, it isn’t an angel in this regard either and several of its own legislators have been found involved in acts that can hardly be deemed as kosher.

As for the consequences of the split, it is unlikely that there will be any in practical terms in he sense that both parties were already at odds with each other for the past several months. That said, the PML-N has been firmly in the saddle in Punjab and it didn’t really need the PPP’s MPAs to even form a government, so it cannot so that its past performance — which has been thoroughly unremarkable — had anything to do with friction with the PPP. If anything, the latter can claim that it tried its best to entertain the wishes and views of the PML-N’s leadership and tried to take it along in terms of managing the economy but that the split happened because the party was unreasonable and expected an economy the size of Pakistan’s to be turned around in a matter of a few weeks. Clearly, one would assume the situation for the PPP is not what the PML-N would like to be in, if it were, say, given a chance at the centre.

Agency divide

February 26th, 2011

The ISI is reported to have reduced its level of cooperation with the CIA, apparently because it is peeved that it was not kept informed about the presence of Raymond Davis, as a CIA operative, in the country and is therefore less willing than before to work with the US outfit. One wonders what has determined the ISI approach given that it is unlikely that it would not have known the exact number of such agents allowed to operate in the country, particularly since their presence was approved by the previous regime of General Pervez Musharraf. Having said that, the Pakistan government is suggesting that it did not know the full extent of Raymond Davis’s activities in Pakistan and, if this is correct, then it suggests a clear lack of trust and/or communication between the Pakistani and American intelligence agencies. We would have thought each side would have kept the other informed about its activities in their country — or that, if it chose not to, the ISI, would be able to keep track of agents from foreign countries working in its midst. There are, of course, a number of rumours surrounding the incident — but we do not quite know the truth.

We, as citizens, have the right to know what happened and to be kept in the picture about what is going on. Parliament must, for this reason, be brought into the frame and should be briefed on the agreements that were signed with foreign nations allowing intelligence-sharing and reportedly even foreign intelligence assets on the ground in Pakistan. The point is not at all to pander to the isolationist right-wing lobby but rather to make a case for greater transparency in such matters. Had that been the case, perhaps, the Raymond Davis case would not have even happened, or it would have been resolved in a reasonable amount of time. There are too many secrets and the Davis affair, with all its hidden facets and now the ISI-CIA tussle, appears to be adding to these while also creating a wave of unrest that has badly upset the political equilibrium in the country.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Raymond Davis affair: What next?

February 27th, 2011

The Raymond Davis affair simmers on and on — sometimes reaching boiling point, at other times going back to a less dramatic situation. Davis has made it clear that he is unwilling to accept the authority of Pakistani courts to determine his fate. Before a Lahore district judge on February 26, he refused to receive the charge sheet which was presented to him for a case accusing him of murder — arguing that he enjoyed full diplomatic immunity. The judge adjourned the hearing after asking Mr Davis to engage a lawyer and, at the same time, also sought help from the government on the immunity issue. During the course of the hearing, Mr Davis had provided a letter from the US embassy which he said was evidence of his diplomatic immunity — and hence he could not be tried by the court. The case is far more complex than anything that can be dealt with by the lower courts. Following the revelation that Mr Davis works on behalf of the CIA — something that may not have been altogether unexpected given the nature of ties between Pakistan and America — the issue has become even more sensitive, not least because of the public reaction to it.

Having said that, it is worth reiterating that the matter of whether Mr Davis is eligible for diplomatic immunity needs to be decided, not necessarily by a court of law, but by the Foreign Office, since it would — or should — have the documents that would decide, once and for all, whether the American is entitled to what he is claiming is his right under the Vienna Conventions. Perhaps what is to follow on this front in the coming days should be seen in light of meetings between army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and senior American military officials in Oman, earlier this week. The option of the Americans paying diyat to the families of the three victims is also a possibility, with at least one Lahore-based weekly claiming some days ago that the family of the third victim who was run over has already accepted an out-of-court settlement. The way forward is clear: In the short run, resolve the matter sooner than later and, in the long run, review the arrangement which enabled such an incident to happen.

Celebrating Faiz

February 27th, 2011

The officially sponsored two-day celebration to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Faiz Ahmed Faiz by the Indian government, with both the president and prime minister of that country lending their support, indicates the extent to which the arts can unify and bring people together. The celebration in India also highlights the cultural and linguistic links between the people of India and Pakistan. Despite the distorted histories taught to people of both countries, the nations are intertwined, bound together by a past shared in common and links that include music, heritage, poetry, dance and a great deal more.

Faiz has been translated into hundreds of languages. But it is in India, where the beauty of his words can be understood in their original language, that he is revered much at the same level as in his own country. The journey made across the border by eminent Indians, including Shabana Azmi and Javed Akhtar, to mark his centennial in Pakistan was just one example of this. The celebration in India, the breaking of animosity, the official patronage and the many demonstrations of pride in a subcontinental poet who ranks among the literary giants of his age would have delighted Faiz — as a pacifist and as a man who sought friendship between the divided people of the subcontinent.

Both nations need to work harder to take matters forward. The attempts to pull Pakistan away from its roots in South Asia and its long years of a shared past with India make no sense at all. The recognition of Faiz in India is to be welcomed. We need to do our bit to promote what we have in common with our neighbour to the East by making a greater effort to unite people and allow them to exchange ideas, thoughts and literary pursuits. By doing so, we would be paying tribute to Faiz and other men of peace, including Allama Iqbal, whose works too, like those of Faiz, continue to be heard in India.

Tax evasion

February 27th, 2011

It had been said by many before, but on February 23 the truth was acknowledged by the government itself: the fiscal deficit is primarily caused by poor revenue collection efforts, not low taxes or high spending. The chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) testified before the Senate that tax evasion costs the country Rs1, 270 billion a year, which, coincidentally, is not too far from the finance ministry’s worst case scenario for the fiscal deficit this year: Rs1, 370 billion. In short, the country can all but close the gaping hole in the federal government’s finances simply by making tax evaders pay what they already owe the government.

In all fairness, the FBR seems to have a somewhat more serious attitude towards prosecuting those who violate the law. The agency has prosecuted evaders who owe some Rs100 billion over the past few months, with many more cases still pending in courts. The FBR also outlined a plan to go after over 700,000 people who have not filed their tax returns. These are all fine initiatives but the country needs the FBR to go beyond just outlining the scale of the problem and aggressively go after those who are the evaders. There needs to be a massive push to force every person in the country to pay the taxes that they owe. And the FBR should not be afraid of being maligned or despised.

Yet, as the chairman of the Senate committee on finance noted, tax evasion on the scale that exists in Pakistan is not possible without the connivance of at least some employees of the FBR. Given that the government misses nearly 45 per cent of its revenue due to tax evasion, this is not just a case of a few bad apples and is one assumes, part of an organised racket. If the FBR plans on having any credibility amongst taxpayers and meeting its goal of eliminating tax evasion, it needs to start by cleaning up its own house.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga