US-Pakistan relations after Raymond Davis

March 20th, 2011

If you connect all the dots, Pakistan and America are going to clash in the near future. The bilateral equation is virtually at an end, and a ‘revolution’ is going to unfold in Pakistan with popular acclaim, most probably with al Qaeda heading the religious militants of our madrassa network. After the release of Raymond Davis, Washington should have been grateful for another anti-US pantomime with a good ending, but the party (read CIA) that unleashed the Raymond Davis crisis decided to unleash another with a drone attack killing 45 of a peaceful jirga in North Waziristan, including the local police (khasadars).

The Pakistan Army, increasingly bothered about what the people of Pakistan think — or what the TV channels care to project — has decided to challenge the US more directly on the drones. Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has earned the admiration of the mostly-religious protesters in the streets of Pakistan by putting the Pakistan Air Force on alert after cancelling the leave of its entire staff and denouncing the drone attack as a counterproductive action. The tribal chiefs in the affected area have given a call for jihad against the US, and they don’t have to go far to join the war unfolding in Pakistan under the leadership of Osama bin Laden and his loyalist Taliban. The war against terrorism, which Pakistan joined under General Musharraf, may be reaching its endgame by Pakistan changing sides.

So far it was the exercise of joining the dots. But behind these recent developments there is the bulwark of US-Pakistan relations that has endured many storms in the past and seems to have survived after every dip in the graph of bilateral warmth. Who is challenging whom to break out of it? Who is leaning on brinkmanship to get the other to show his hand and retreat? Behind the current anti-American wave in Pakistan stand a variety of analysts and doomsayers. There is one class which believes Pakistan should not break out of the pro-US stance but tighten the screw on Washington to make it behave. Then there is a group of ‘realist’ experts who say that the US-Pakistan relationship is ‘transactional’ but, in this equation, America clearly needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs the US. The third group comprises the passionate TV anchor and the fulminating clergy on the roads who want a clean cut-off with America and expect Pakistan’s fortunes to change after that in the shape of some miracle they can’t describe just yet.

If you read the statements issuing from the US State Department — especially words spoken by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — the GHQ in Pakistan may be right in thinking that America’s policy in the region cannot bear fruit without Pakistani help. But General Petraeus, the top US military commander in Afghanistan, seems oblivious of the latest drone outrage when he asks Pakistan to attack North Waziristan. It seems that, when it comes to the crunch, Pakistan will have to forget its honour-driven passions and take a good look at its collapsing economy. Any suspension of American aid will not hurt Pakistan greatly, but if the US uses its clout with the international financial institutions and multilateral development assistance agencies to roll back their aid too, then the pain will be unbearable and will unleash a ‘revolution’ in Pakistan by the end of 2011. The GHQ may be thinking that the nuisance of its India-driven ‘rebellion’ may still be outweighed by the part Pakistan plays in the war against terrorism. In October 2010, a checkpost attack by US troops allowed Pakistan to demonstrate who was boss in US-Pakistan relations by making Washington apologise abjectly. Will this be repeated in March 2011? Keep in mind that public opinion in the US about Pakistan is at its most negative and that Pakistan is completely isolated internationally on what it is getting ready to do.

Pakistan’s internal situation is perilous. The economy is gradually coming to a halt and the tsunami of the unemployed, formed by Pakistan’s energy crisis and general bankruptcy of state institutions, is looming on the horizon. This is not a revolution that will set things right. This looks like chaos presided over by al Qaeda, whose faith-driven blueprint focuses on war (and booty), not on economic survival.

Shoaib Akhtar’s retirement

March 20th, 2011

Now that he has announced that he will be retiring after the end of the World Cup, speedster Shoaib Akhtar’s career is being subjected to historical revisionism. Looking at it through rose-tinted glasses, he is being lauded for being perhaps the fastest bowler ever, for his devil-may-care attitude and winning personality and, above all, for all those occasions when he decimated batting line-ups. It is only fitting that he be remembered for these since they are a large part of the legend that is Shoaib Akhtar. Shoaib started his career when the incomparable Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were ending theirs and there were fears that Pakistan’s assembly of fast bowlers would dry up. Luckily we got Shoaib, a bowler who’s interminable run-up and unimaginable speed were among the most exciting things to ever happen to Pakistan cricket.

And there were the legendary spells. Who can forget the time he ran through the Australian batting line-up in an ODI in 2002? Or his classic deliveries that clean-bowled Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar and stunned a partisan crowd at Eden Gardens into silence? In Shoaib’s case, the numbers tell only part of the story. His 178 Test wickets at an average just below 26 speak of a fine bowler, but hardly one who will go down as a legend. This ignores the fact that from 1999-2005, there was no bowler as thrilling as Shoaib Akhtar.

It would be remiss, even at a time when he has just announced his retirement, not to mention, though, how Shoaib’s on-field achievements are eclipsed by his off-field antics. During his career, Shoaib missed more than half the Tests played by Pakistan through injury, bans for drug-taking, bans for beating up his teammates and bans for ball-tampering. Shoaib followed the beat of his own drum but even in a team sport that accommodates mavericks, he was a step too far. He considered himself above the rules and he damaged his career because of that. Shoaib Ahtar will never be forgotten but, above all, he will be remembered for depriving himself — and us — of much of his talent.

The polio scourge

March 21st, 2011

Till 2007, when 32 cases of the potentially paralysing disease were detected in the country, Pakistan had seemed to be winning its war on polio. For several years before this, numbers had remained low and the possibility of the country being removed from the list of endemic countries had seemed a realistic objective. This is no longer the case. In 2010, 144 cases were recorded, the highest anywhere in the world. Pakistan, always with India, Afghanistan and Nigeria, continuous to be labelled by the WHO as polio-endemic nation.

This is no small setback. It is a huge blow which means dozens of children may end up paralysed for life. Polio has also surfaced in districts, including those in Balochistan, where no case had been recorded for years. In response to the emergency situation, the president, with the aid of international aid groups, has been attempting to work out an emergency response plan.

If we are to regain a toehold in the war on polio, several things need to be done. The most critical among these is understanding what has gone wrong, so that steps can be taken to avoid such pitfalls. Some of these are well known. Vaccination campaigns in insurgency hit areas have repeatedly had to be postponed or cancelled. Even when they do take place, local people report that vaccination teams rarely move outside major centres. They cannot be blamed for this, given cases of kidnapping or even murder in the past. Still more disturbing is the report by the National Institute of Health which states that poor handling and storage may have rendered some of the oral vaccine ineffective. At least some of the cases of polio which have surfaced are among vaccinated children.

More innovative means to deliver the drops to children in remote and potentially unsafe communities are reportedly being developed, with villagers trained to administer the vaccine themselves. Other steps need to be taken and administrative loopholes closed so that Pakistan can join the list of countries that have won their battle against polio.

The blame game

March 21st, 2011

In his first public statement on the Davis affair, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has said no single institution should be blamed for the CIA operative’s rapid exit from the country, after the payment of US$2.3 million as blood money. Mr Gilani’s comments come as the game of blame over the Davis release continues. The central government has been accused of working out the agreement while ministers in the Punjab set-up claim they played no role — even though this sounds extremely unlikely. It is hard to imagine the actual run to freedom with Mr Davis could have been rehearsed a day earlier, (as reported by this newspaper) without the Punjab government in the know about the cars speeding away from Kot Lakhpat Jail towards the airport or the preparatory activities on at the jail. It is foolish to try and deceive people on this count.

The prime minister’s statement appears chiefly to be an effort to deflect some pressure from the ISI, which, it appears, was involved in the crucial negotiations with the CIA that brought about the final deal. It has been suggested that, in return, the ISI may have extracted its own price, with talk of specific concessions involving action in northern regions and extensions in the tenure of key officials. From what we know of the ISI’s workings, the involvement of the agency would make any role played by the central government less significant. If the two young men shot dead by Raymond Davis were indeed agency operatives, the ISI involvement in the matter becomes all the more comprehensible. This could also account for their influence with the families of the victims.

Individuals, notably former foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and political parties such as the Jamaat-e-Islami, continue to demand the truth be disclosed. This is unlikely to happen. The ISI is hardly likely to come to a sudden decision to reform itself and take people into confidence on what it has been doing. The prime minister is right when he says no single institution is involved. And with Davis now many miles away, this is where the issue will need to remain.

Avoiding jail riots

March 21st, 2011

Earlier this week, at least seven jail inmates were killed in riots that broke out at the central jail in Hyderabad, reportedly after suspension of gas and electricity to their barracks. The nature of this riot highlights the problems with jails in the country. In this particular jail, there are around 1,700 inmates, though it is made to house only 1,527. Overcrowding is, in fact, a common problem, and one which exacerbates other inconveniences. Not only are prisoners living in cramped quarters, those locked in for petty crimes end up coming into frequent contact with hardened criminals, hardly making for a rehabilitating environment. Even in this case, the police officer incharge of the area is reported to have claimed that most crimes are being patronised from inside the jails, including kidnapping for ransom by hardened criminals.

One can only speculate as to the effect close proximity with such criminals, who may be in for years, will have on petty criminals, or even under-trial prisoners, who may, if the judicial system so allows, be released into society much sooner. Added to this, the level of nutrition provided to the prisoners is very low, and when compounded with problems such as suspension in the supply of gas, it is little wonder that riots will break out when the prisoners are deprived of their morning tea.

In other jails across the country, conditions are reported to be much worse, with reports of prisoners sleeping on the floor, in gloomy, unhygienic conditions. Conditions for women in jail are just as bad, and their infant children are exposed to the same surroundings. Furthermore, thousands of jailed Pakistani children continue to suffer physical and other abuse, as they are often also locked in with hardened criminals. Criminals are jailed to prevent them from bringing harm to society or themselves, and jailing people does not give the system the right to deprive them of basic fundamental human rights. It is time that more attention was paid to the implementation of the much-awaited jail reforms across the country.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Air strikes on Libya

March 22nd, 2011

Let us be clear: We are no supporters of Moammar Qaddafi and, in accordance with the expressed wishes of what appears to be the overwhelming majority of Libyans, would like to see him gone.

As a consequence, the action against Libya so far, especially the establishment of a no-fly zone and the minimisation of Qaddafi’s ability to kill his own citizens — is perhaps the only option that could have been employed at this point in time. Almost too late, it appears that they have been successful in pushing back pro-Qaddafi forces from routing rebel forces. However, the end goal of this action is unclear since the forces have no mandate to remove Qaddafi nor would that be possible without the use of ground forces. Tacit acknowledgement of this has come from US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen who was quoted on March 20 as saying that the intention of the air strikes and missile attacks was not to oust the Libyan dictator and that he may well survive the air campaign. In the best case scenario, however, this attack will allow the rebel forces to regroup and eventually overcome Qaddafi’s band of thug supporters and mercenaries.

That said, the action by the international forces does however come across as odd given the silence over the protests and criticism directed of late against the absolute rulers of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. This means that if the West bombs Tripoli whilst watching other Arab despots kill their own citizens, it will seem more and more as if there is an ulterior motive to the attacks. Yemen in particular has seen violence for several weeks because the people of Yemen are fed up with the decades-long rule of their head of state, but the West has so far not asked for Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, perhaps because he has said that he is committed to stamping out al Qaeda in his country. A double-standard will cause more problems in the long term leaving the basic problems of misrule, corruption and lack of genuine democracy and freedom to be resolved in the future. For its part, Libya must immediately abide by the no-fly zone set up under UN auspices and call an actual halt on all attacks on its own citizens, especially in the country’s east, which has been under the control of forces who want Mr Qaddafi to hand over power.

Mine madness

March 22nd, 2011

At least 45 miners have died as a result of an explosion at a coalmine in Sorange in Balochistan. Methane gas — the element most feared by coalminers — still circulates through the mine, posing the risk of further disaster.

This is not the first accident of its kind. Mining equipment in the country is outdated and safety measures inadequate. The lives of the impoverished people who work in one of the most dangerous industries are apparently dispensable. We hear eight members of a single family have perished. Their ages are unknown, but the use of child labour in the mining sector is a common phenomenon. Despite the signing of international conventions by Pakistan barring the use of children for dangerous work, the practice continues. There is also the question of who is responsible for accidents of the kind that has occurred close to Quetta. The Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation had leased the mines to private contractors. It is not known if rules and regulations regarding the running of mines were followed or the welfare of workers who toil deep down under the surface of the earth protected. In most cases, this does not happen. The systematic demolition of unions that has continued over the last three decades has added to the hazards miners face. Today, they lack the voice to speak out for their own rights or even to try and protect their own lives. Many are underpaid and subjected to all kinds of exploitation. Their poverty leaves them unable to adopt a safer means of earning a livelihood in times of high unemployment.

This is an issue the government needs to look at with some urgency. There are over 2,200 mines in the country run by 60,000 miners who also face all kinds of health risks due to the environment in which they work. Conditions are medieval and many workers are exposed to serious health hazards. The improvements in equipment and warning systems installed in other nations are still non-existent here. It is high time this happened so more lives are not lost.

Now to the real deal

March 22nd, 2011

Every time it looks like England has stolen Pakistan’s title as the mavericks of world cricket, we throw in a performance so unexpected it reinforces the notion that no team could be as unpredictable as ours. The March 19 win over reigning champions Australia was truly momentous for it not only enabled us to top our group, it also ended Australia’s unbeaten World Cup run that stretched back to 1999.

As a result of leading its group, Pakistan will now face the West Indies, the weakest of the eight quarter- finalists. If, as expected, we get through that match, our next assignment will be the winners of the India-Australia clash. Beating Australia once is fortunate; doing it twice in the same tournament may require a miracle. India, meanwhile, are the undeniable favourites and seem to be on a collision course with destiny. Conventional wisdom would say that Pakistan’s run should end in the semifinals.

But the very existence of the Pakistan cricket team, scarred by defeat and tarred by scandal, argues against believing in conventional wisdom. With the quarter-finals now ready to start, this is also a good time to take stock of the tournament so far. The biggest story of the World Cup has not been the players but the technology. The use and misuse of the Umpire Decision Review System has been the talk of the tournament. Both officials and players are new to the system and any problems that have arisen should be blamed on their inexperience and a need to tweak the rules rather than the technology itself. The tournament so far has also seen a burst of honesty from Sachin Tendulkar, who gave himself out when he knew he edged a ball, in stark contrast to Ricky Ponting who was involved in an ugly incident against Pakistan after refusing to walk. But then the World Cup is all about creating heroes and villains, something it has done to perfection so far.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The state in peril

March 23rd, 2011

After 64 years as an independent state, Pakistan is a troubled republic like many post-colonial states in Africa and many older ones in the Islamic world. What sets it apart, however, is the level of terrorism being experienced by its population. What is more, Pakistan is stereotypical of the states that misdiagnose their troubles and seem to act against their own interests. At no point in its history was Pakistan more besieged with crises challenging its very existence than now. Intra-state conflict has grown in Pakistan as a consequence of the strategic decisions taken towards the end of the 20th century to rely on asymmetric war through proxy warriors. These paved the way for the debilitation of state authority through a sharing of its monopoly of violence with its chosen non-state actors. While external sovereignty is a myth, internal sovereignty is essential to the survival of the state. The creation of ungoverned spaces inside Pakistan in order to facilitate the extraction of non-state actors became a norm rather that the exception.

The result of this policy of ungoverned spaces’ has been the re-establishment of Pakistan’s Tribal Areas in the north as the domain of terrorism, with domination of adjacent administered territory, including Peshawar, the headquarters of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. What Pakistan finds difficult to defend today is its claim on North Waziristan, where foreigners raise terrorist warriors to attack across the border as well as deep inside the country, from Peshawar and Islamabad to Karachi. It is also difficult to deny that the Tribal Areas, where the Pakistan army is fighting a fluctuating battle with the likes of Mangal Bagh, are also the place of muster for the Talibanised Punjabi youths supplied by jihadi militias.

Although the Punjab government is at pains to deny that Punjabis can be Taliban, the fact is that, in sheer numbers, the Punjabis now found among the ranks of the terrorists fielded by al Qaeda could be more than the Pakhtuns. This estimate is based on the observation that Pakhtuns seem to be more Talibanised, not because they believe in the extreme al Qaeda world view, but because they live under the informal governance of the terrorists and have to follow their decree. The Punjabi terrorist first believes in the creed of terror, then undertakes the journey out of his province.

This March 23 is perhaps the gloomiest because we have opposed terrorism inflicted on us by al Qaeda with a self-destructive extremism of our own. Add to this the misdiagnosis that terrorism against Pakistan is being orchestrated by America, India and Israel, to target and destroy our nuclear weapons. The clergy has been agitating in favour of a flawed man-made law and has succeeded in indoctrinating ordinary Pakistanis and state employees in favour of killing people they suspect of insulting the Holy Prophet (pbuh). The example of the arrest and acquittal of CIA contractor Raymond Davis has demonstrated that the people are not willing to follow the extreme prescriptions of the religious parties when they refuse to stage a ‘revolution’ against the government.

After 64 years, Pakistan is waking up to its India-obsessive strategy and is gradually rejecting the ‘security state’ paradigm that has caused crippling wars that have not benefitted the country. If the military still wants to adhere to this paradigm, it may find itself isolated in the face of the mainstream political parties, the PML-N and the PPP, who wish to change it. As 2011 rolls on, Pakistan is economically hamstrung by a chronic energy shortage, state corporations that supply basic amenities verging on bankruptcy, and a private sector paralysed by law and order problems. Normally, this is the time to wake up and change tack.

As Pakistan thinks of solutions, it must first realise that any measures adopted must be rationally acceptable inside Pakistan as well as to the world outside. The most worrying sign is Pakistan’s international isolation as it tackles its disorder. The year 2011 could be crucial because this year the military establishment might well break from its past pattern and save the country by not exploiting the internecine national politics of the day.

Gap between word and deed

March 23rd, 2011

Most objective listeners to President Asif Ali Zardari’s speech to parliament would tend to disagree with the rather rosy picture that he portrayed of the PPP government’s achievements over the parliamentary year gone by. However, there are some positives, foremost among them the finalisation of the Seventh National Finance Commission Award and the passage of the 18th amendment which abolished the Concurrent List. As for the president’s statement that the tax net had been widened, this has not come via the reformed general sales tax, as should have been the case, but rather by the imposition of a one-time surcharge on income for financing the 2010 flood relief and rehabilitation effort. A few items previously exempted from paying sales tax have now been brought under the tax net, but the incidence of this levy will fall on ordinary Pakistanis and not on the relatively better-off trader/business classes. Remittances may be at record levels but that is a function of incomes earned by Pakistanis overseas, and is not really indicative of policies by governments in Pakistan.

The president did point out that the floods of last year caused damages of 10 billion dollars which is almost six per cent of GDP (at current prices). Many of those affected by the floods have yet to return to their homes, so progress on dealing with the country’s worst-ever natural disaster has been painfully slow. Mr Zardari also made it a point to refer to the Hydra of extremism and intolerance, and condemned the murders of Salmaan Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti. While certainly welcome, such unequivocal condemnation should have come from the head of the state much earlier, right after when the two men were so brutally murdered, and should have been followed up by the PPP-led government in letter and spirit. Instead, what was seen was a veritable capitulation to such forces, because instead of going after the extremists and signalling to the minorities that it would protect them, the government bent over backwards to appease the religious right, especially on the blasphemy law issue. There is much that needs to be done and the government needs to understand that the best way to strengthen civilian institutions and democracy is to deliver on its promises and pledges.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Karachi’s killing fields

March 24th, 2011

While Pakistan is busy worrying about Blackwater and the CIA bribing the Taliban to kill innocent citizens all over the country, and is growing hysterical over a crazy priest burning the Holy Quran in Florida, its economic hub, Karachi, is losing a dozen people a day to target killings. All localities have become unsafe, but certain ones such as Landhi Chowrangi, Qasba Colony and Katti Pahari have suffered the most in the latest spate of violence. Killers are apprehended off and on, but their numbers never decrease, and the mayhem never ends, thanks to the divided nature of those political parties who are in control of the city and the province.

From an analysis of the most recent round of killings, it seems as if activists of all three parties — the MQM, the ANP and the PPP — are being killed, along with those belonging to religious parties as well. However, by and large, what is being fought out seems to be a battle for turf — in the larger political sense primarily — and while each party denies its involvement in the violence, it really begs logic to think that none of them have any hand in it. Even if for the sake of argument, this were taken at face value, surely the parties should have some role in being able to curb the violence, since all three are part of the Sindh government.

As for the city’s police and other law-enforcement agencies such as the Rangers, they seem helpless and powerless to stop the mayhem. Karachi’s recently-appointed police chief said the other day that several people suspected of being the shooters had been arrested, but that did nothing to stem the killings. Also, no effort was made by the police officer to reveal the identities or political affiliations of those involved, perhaps since he reports to a political boss. Even President Asif Ali Zardari’s statement on the city’s situation, made during his address to a joint session of parliament on March 22, that the government would work to improve comes across as mostly fantastical since we have heard these claims many times before.

The most recent round of target killings came on the heels of an MQM-PPP tussle over the so-called People’s Aman Committee, which the MQM has accused of targeting its party workers. However, the Sindh home minister, never one to shy away from speaking his mind, has often accused the MQM of being behind the target killings and the city’s widespread extortion racket. That said, the recent strike called by the Sindh PPP, following the rescinding of the NAB chairman’s appointment by the Supreme Court, also showed that for a change, a strike initiated by the PPP could have its fair share of burnt vehicles and accompanying violence. The depressing thing about all of this, of course, is the stark fact that the law and order situation in Pakistan’s largest city, and its business and commercial centre, is not getting any better, and that no real effort is being made to turn it around.

Apart from political groups, Karachi is also home to a healthy presence of several jihadi organisations. In this the hundreds of madrassas in the city, which have rapidly grown over the years, and whose students can always provide fodder for the jihadi ranks, play a role. This has a nexus with the spate of sectarian killings that the city has seen in recent years, especially of doctors. Of late, the MQM has been claiming that several of its activists who are Shia, have been targeted and that this was done on sectarian grounds. This aspect also needs some scrutiny, but one is not sure whether the police are even considering it.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik must be a deeply optimistic man, predicting an end to target-killings in Karachi every few days. However, he may not be looking in the right direction. If his statements are examined carefully, his new diagnosis traces most terrorism in Pakistan to ‘foreign countries’ headed, one suspects, by the US in tandem with India and Israel. If the state of Pakistan is looking for CIA agents in Pakistan — ‘hundreds of Raymond Davises’, it is said — it can hardly get at the root of the problem in Karachi, which will only be tackled if the political groups in the city rein in their visceral instinct.

Neutrality on Bahrain

March 24th, 2011

In times of revolution, safety often becomes an afterthought. When both the government and the protesters are charged with emotion, violence, sadly, becomes the norm. With Bahrain in the midst of a violent uprising, many Pakistanis are being targeted by protesters who see them as collaborators of the unpopular regime. Most of the Pakistanis targeted are labourers or other civilians in low-paying jobs. Although the Pakistan Embassy in Bahrain is providing shelter to about 40 Pakistani families, the vast majority are helpless and defenceless.

Much of the blame has to be directed at the Pakistan government. Even before the uprising broke out, many Pakistanis were serving in the Bahraini police force. Since the troubles began, Bahrain has been recruiting mercenaries from Pakistan to bolster its police and armed forces. We have allowed them to do so unhindered. Bahrainis are understandably enraged that foreigners are being employed to oppress them and so are lashing out at all Pakistanis. The government needs to immediately ban any more Pakistanis from being recruited in Bahrain’s security forces. Additionally, it is the job of the embassy and the government to make sure its citizens are safe in a foreign country. As soon as the situation turned ugly, all Pakistanis should have been evacuated from Bahrain, just as the US had done with its citizens in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries that are in the throes of revolution.

By allowing mercenaries to serve the Bahraini monarchy, Pakistan has dangerously taken sides in what may turn out to be a geopolitical, ethnic nightmare. The population of Bahrain is overwhelmingly Shia while the ruling family is Sunni. Iran is naturally supporting the protesters while Saudi Arabia is on the side of the king. Thanks to the mercenaries, the impression will now stick that Pakistan is on the anti-Iran side. This will only hurt relations with Iran, with whom we hope to reach a deal on a gas pipeline. It is time to put potential new alliances on par with existing ones. The government needs to cite its own law-and-order problems at home and a desire to remain neutral in a delicate part of the world. Above all, its foremost priority should be to safely bring home Pakistani citizens.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Peace with India

March 25th, 2011

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s comments to an Indian peace delegation led by noted journalist Kuldip Nayar, that talks, and not war, is the only way to make progress in India-Pakistan relations should be warmly welcomed. That the prime minister’s remarks came just a couple of days after President Asif Ali Zardari’s speech to a joint session of parliament, in which he emphasised that dialogue is the best solution to the Kashmir issue shows that the government is fully committed in trying to make the peace process work. Good intentions alone, however, will not be enough to secure concrete results. Previous meetings between Prime Minister Gilani and his Indian counterpart, Dr Manmohan Singh, at Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009 and Thimpu last year, were notable only for leading nowhere. Meetings at the lower levels have been similarly frustrating.

There is also reason to doubt intentions on both sides. A diplomatic cable recently released by WikiLeaks, quotes US Ambassador to India, Timothy Roemer, as saying that the Indian prime minister was isolated in his own government on the issue of talking to Pakistan. According to him, then national security adviser MK Narayanan was not supportive of talks with Pakistan, a position he says was shared by everyone in the government other than Dr Singh. It is not known if this is still the case, but Pakistan-bashing has always been the tool of choice for faltering Indian politicians. Even if Dr Singh does not go down that route, there is little hope of talks achieving much if one side does not believe in them.

In Pakistan the worry is always the military establishment, which has veto power on all major foreign policy decisions. As long it sees a financial and ideological interest in maintaining the status quo in Kashmir, a comprehensive agreement between the two sides seems out of reach. But that is where the people of both countries can come in. They can keep on lobbying and pressuring their respective hawkish civil and military establishments that a lasting peace, could in fact, transform South Asia from being one of the world’s poorest and most-deprived regions into a prosperous trading bloc. The Indian peace delegation headed by Mr Nayar said many good things, particularly on the strong need to take urgent confidence-building measures, and one can only hope that governments on both sides will heed them.

Not a grain to eat

March 25th, 2011

Like Coleridge’s haunting vision of endless miles of sea but no water to drink, we could soon have golden wheat fields swaying in the breeze — but people who cannot afford to buy the grain to make their bread. The director of the World Food Programme (WFP) in the country has said the Pakistan government — the biggest buyer of wheat in the country — had set prices too high for ordinary consumers. This means that while a good wheat crop is expected, in the flood-hit province of Sindh and elsewhere, people will not be able to purchase the produce to bring to their tables. A survey has already shown that malnutrition levels in Sindh, between 21 and 23 per cent, are higher than those in Africa. Another survey shows people are taking out loans simply to buy food.

Darkening this vision from hell is the apparent blindness of the government to the scale of the problem, with the WFP struggling to explain that the presence of abundant food in the country is pointless if people cannot buy it. The government should, of course, have recognised this itself without experts from UN agencies having to warn it of the perils its people face. The concerns of citizens should form the focal point of planning at various official levels. The issue is also one that should top our list of priorities as a nation. But the survey showing the terrifyingly high rate of malnutrition has received only fleeting media attention.

Few politicians or NGO heads have commented on it. But the fact of the matter is simple enough, since without food, people cannot survive. Every day, people fall ill or die as a consequence of malnutrition in our country. Mothers and children suffer the most. The UN official’s words should make us think much harder about the morality of decisions taken, and how we can justify spending in areas that bring no benefit to people, while hiking up the price of food crops year after year, so that farmers draw in profits while consumers struggle to put together enough food for their families to eat.

Warped priorities

March 25th, 2011

The Punjab government is reported to have spent the sizeable sum of Rs12 million on the inauguration of two of its much-touted ‘Danish’ schools, at Hasilpur and Rahimyar Khan. A third school has yet to be inaugurated. People were flown in from Lahore for the occasion and no doubt lavish amounts were spent on all kinds of fripperies. This seems like a colossal waste when we think of how useful the same sum of money, could have been in improving facilities at existing government schools or in setting up new schools. A recent report released by the Pakistan Education Task Force has demonstrated that even while it is the country’s richest province, Punjab’s attainments in education are far from impressive.

In the backdrop of a situation where millions of people in the province are illiterate and children everywhere attend schools where there is little or no furniture, no toilets, no fans and sometimes no teachers the wisdom of the ‘Danish’ schools also needs to be reviewed. The purpose behind the setting up of plush schools is, in theory, to educate ‘talented’ children from poor families and thus also attempt to break the cycle of poverty. The intention is perhaps worthy. But would it not be more just to use scarce resources on offering quality education to every child, rather than focusing on a few. After all, each child should be enabled to develop the potential he or she possesses, as a means to uplifting their quality of life. Using huge resources for a few may not offer the best means to move forward. We need, in the Punjab and elsewhere, to address educational policy as an urgent priority. A key issue is the multi-tiered nature of education — with madrassas operating yards away from elite private schools. We must even out a playing field which offers huge advantages to some, while discriminating against others so that every individual gets a fair chance to move ahead in life.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Terror on the field

March 26th, 2011

There was a time when mention of terror on the cricket field referred only to an especially fierce fast bowler or perhaps a ruthless batsman dismissing a desperate bowling attack for boundaries all around the field. This is no longer the case. Terror now means a strike with bombs or guns or grenades — and Pakistan’s interior minister has suggested his security apparatus had ‘credible information’ that such an attack was possible on the Pakistan cricket team as it moves to India for its semi-final against the host country. It would appear that even though international cricket has been banned from Pakistan, the terrorist scourge may be following it around the world.

Mr Malik’s warning cannot be entirely dismissed, especially as it seems to stem from an arrest made by Interpol in Sri Lanka. The indications that Pakistan is now ready to cooperate with the world against terrorism is welcome. There is no direct indication of where the threat comes from, but there has been talk of possible Taliban activity in India. It is too early to say how much of this is completely reliable. To add to the risk of possible Taliban action, there is also — as always when Pakistan visits India — a possible threat from the Shiv Sena, with the final, ominously enough, scheduled for Mumbai.

We must hope that there is no terrorist outrage and that all the excitement is restricted to the field. This has so far been a wonderful World Cup, it would be a tragedy if it was ruined in any way. Of course, there will be sceptics on both sides who will scoff at such comments but it is always better to take such threats seriously given the fact that anti-Muslim violence has often occurred in India. What is encouraging is the cooperation we see between Pakistan and India. Only a willingness of this nature to work together can save us from the terrible fallout that would come with any act of terrorism. We must do everything possible to ensure this does not happen, by sharing information across borders and working together to ensure the World Cup proceeds as smoothly as possible, without a major hitch. This, in the final analysis, is far more important than who wins or loses.

Simmering Syria

March 26th, 2011

The wave of protests that has swept the Arab world has already claimed the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. Libya, thanks to the intransigence of Qaddafi and US military might, is likely to be the next domino to fall. Improbable as this sounds, the Baathist regime of Bashar alAssad in Syria could find itself cast out in the wilderness too. Assad made the classic dictator’s mistake: He started killing his own people just because they had the temerity to protest against his rule. The hub of the anti-Assad protests has been Daraa, a city about a 100 kilometres south of Damascus. It began last week, when a small protest at the Omari mosque was harshly dealt with by Syrian security officials who started wantonly firing at the protestors. Since then, the Omari mosque has been at the centre of the protest movement, with thousands of protestors being shot at and tear-gassed daily. The Assad regime is now starting to show signs that it is faltering. After the unprecedented protests, his regime, which is unused to offering liberty and concessions, offered more freedom to the local press and an increase in the salaries of public employees. He also said that he may be willing to consider lifting the emergency laws under which Syria has been ruled for nearly 50 years. Obviously, Assad has learned nothing from his fellow Arab despots, all of whom have tried last-ditch reforms to save their rule. Such concessions are seen as a sign of weakness, not kindness, and so it is no surprise that the Syrian people have rejected them.

International pressure is slowly being exerted on Syria, but with the West occupied in fighting an air war in Libya, there is every chance that Assad will be able to wait the protestors out, with more violence if necessary. Regionally, Assad can rely on the support of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon while keeping a wary eye on the anti-Baathist Saudi Arabia. But the fact that Assad should be able to survive does not mean that he will survive. If there is one thing we have learned in the Middle East this year, it is that predictions are futile.

Haze of smoke

March 26th, 2011

The raid by police on two Lahore restaurants and the confiscation of six shishas from them comes as reports circulate that the Punjab government is considering a complete ban on the popular device, which offers users tobacco filtered through water and smoked through a long pipe. There is, however, a great deal of haze surrounding the issue, almost as much as that which hangs around a typical shisha smoking café. The owners of the restaurants have pointed out that nothing was given in writing at the time of the raid and have challenged the police action in court.

Over the past few years, shisha, an import from the Middle East, has caught on like wildfire among young people. It is sometimes offered even at school and college functions. But the fact also is that the shisha involves tobacco and other materials that are potentially injurious to health. Research at the Agha Khan University has suggested that the flavoured extracts and other items smoked along with the tobacco have their own ill-effects. The strawberry, grape, mango or other essences make the shisha seem innocuous even to very young smokers, whose parents have no objections for precisely the same reasons. This lack of awareness is dangerous. The shisha offers just as many hazards as other forms of tobacco, including cigarettes. In Punjab, there have been some reports that addictive substances such as heroin, marijuana or hash are, in some cases, mixed with the tobacco. There can, of course, be no doubt at all that this makes the pipe extremely dangerous. Its sharing between a large group of people adds to the risk of infection being transmitted.

However, it should be noted that any ban needs to be carefully considered. After all, cigarettes, cigars and the hookah remain in wide use. Creating awareness, stamping out underage use and giving adults the right to free choice may then be the best strategy.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Unite and rule

March 27th, 2011

Sport, the equivalent of ancient war, often seems to divide — drawing out fierce passions and, in some cases, open bigotry. But it can also be a powerful uniting force, bringing people together and drawing upon all that is best in man. The Indian prime minister’s generous invitation to President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani to join him at Mohali next week, to watch the semi-final encounter between Pakistan and India represents this side of sport. This latest chapter in cricket diplomacy represents a rare chance for the two countries to patch up relations that have been strained since 2008. We must hope that, without any delay, the offer is accepted by the Pakistani prime minister. The indications are he will do so. And amidst the roar of the crowds at Mohali, relations between the two countries could move back onto an even keel.

There have also been other indications of willingness by New Delhi to make a new start and repair torn relations. Special security arrangements are being made for the Pakistan team, given the threats of a possible attack. Statements by the Shiv Sena have been condemned by many. It is true that the clash at Mohali will be tense. For many in the subcontinent, it represents a game as crucial as the final. But it could also offer an opportunity to move beyond the world of cricket, into the arena of regional relations. The opportunity opened up by Manmohan Singh’s remarks must be seized. It would be a disaster to squander it. The benefits of closer ties are obvious. They come in the economic sphere, in terms of people-to-people relations and in many other areas. Building trust with India could be the key to dealing with issues of extremism and militancy. Looking to the East could be crucial to moving beyond the realm of violence, based on warped religious belief into which we have moved. If cricket can help achieve this, the contribution of the sport would be an enormous one — going beyond any feats on the field itself, no matter how dramatic these may be.

Can the Taliban keep their word?

March 27th, 2011

After the much-publicised and welcomed peace agreement barely a month ago between all parties concerned, Kurram Agency has seen another episode of planned terror. Four minibuses were ambushed there on March 25, one set on fire, and 45 passengers, most of them Shia, were kidnapped. On the Parachinar Road coming from Peshawar via Hangu, nine people were killed. The four-year sectarian conflict — inter-tribal, as well as Taliban-oriented because of the sectarian nature of their religion — is back. The allowances made for the frequent Taliban attacks in Hangu despite the agreement were of no use. The Taliban never really intended to honour the February agreement.

This is not the first time the terrorists have violated an agreement they had committed to. The military’s tendency to believe that the Taliban, as true Muslims, would stand by their peace deals, began to be disabused right after 2006 when South Waziristan tribesmen, who had been hosts to Arab warriors and had fought the American-Nato war in Afghanistan, began to go back on their word. Islamist and anti-American generals, who sewed up deals with Nek Muhammad and Baitullah Mehsud were betrayed when the Taliban attacked an army convoy and took a large number of troops and officers hostage.

The latest betrayal may have many causes, one could be the tough stances taken by the Kurram tribes divided by sect, but it is also true that the Sunni factions listen to the Taliban and obey their command. The current leader of the Taliban, Hakimullah, has built his bloody career on his readiness to kill the Shias, allowing his spokesman to rename himself after Azam Tariq, the Punjabi leader of the banned Sipah-e-Sahaba, guilty of spreading anti-Shia sentiment in Pakistan. The Kurram setback will give pause to those who recommend ‘talks’ with the Taliban. When asked which Taliban, one should talk to, the answer is that the Pakistan Army will choose the right Taliban. The quarrel between the Pakistan Army and the Americans, stems from the latter’s objection that Pakistan has already had experience with its ‘peace deals’ and should not talk to elements killing innocent people en masse with suicide bombers and car bombs. Also, it is no use talking to the enemy when he is in the ascendant and betrays no signs of suing for peace. No sensible person can be opposed to talks, but record shows that the peace policy will not be effective before Pakistan is able to push the Taliban back and make them feel like talking.

Even those who support the Pakistan Army stance on talks and oppose America’s pressure for attacking North Waziristan, acknowledge the problem of peace deals that keep falling apart. An ex-chief secretary of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and an expert on tribal affairs, wrote against the American policy causing the drone massacre of Datta Khel, but noted the following facts about ‘peace deals’ with the terrorists: “Hafiz Gul Bahadur has become a prominent militant leader with alleged links to the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network and al Qaeda. He is also an influential member of the larger militant local council called Shura Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen (United Council of Mujahideen) that includes Maulvi Nazir of Wana. It also included the late Baitullah Mehsud.”

He adds: “However, Gul Bahadur is considered an asset by the Pakistan military for maintaining some semblance of control in the region. Furthermore, Gul Bahadur has a record of cooperation with the Pakistani authorities. In 2006, he brokered the North Waziristan ceasefire that ended attacks on the Pakistan military and he agreed to evict foreigners. The agreement collapsed in July 2007, when a convoy of the Pakistan Army was ambushed and more than 20 soldiers died.” Kurram Agency has been closed to Pakistan, more or less like North Waziristan, the only difference being the former’s internecine sectarian violence and North Waziristan’s status as a launching pad of terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan. Exploitation of the idea of ‘talks’ by wrangling politicians without regard to the fact that it might further strengthen the terrorists must be abandoned. Unless we get the upper hand in our battle with the Taliban, talking peace with them may be of little use. And for that, we all must possess the will to resist the ideology of terror.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Whither madrassa regulation?

March 28th, 2011

Just about every terrorist attack in the last decade, it appears, has emerged from Pakistan’s unregulated madrassas. These religious schools, operating without government regulation, have become incubators of hate and tolerance. And, as a report in this paper on March 26 revealed, the current dispensation, much like the one that preceded it, has been unable to make any progress on that front. About six months ago, the interior ministry and the Tanzeem-e-Madaris Pakistan came to a ten-point agreement to enforce a uniform curriculum, ensure that madrassas do not teach hate literature and register all foreign students, among other things. Needless to say, this has not yet been enforced by the government. Indeed, the government has not even set up a committee to deal with madrassa reform yet.

The government’s inability or unwillingness to tackle madrassa reform is reminiscent of previous failed efforts by General Pervez Musharraf. In a speech in June 2002, Musharraf had promised to do much of what the PPP government is now supposed to enforce. Among his proposals, Musharraf called for the modernisation and regulation of madrassas to integrate them with Pakistan’s mainstream educational system. He conspicuously failed to do so despite earmarking more than $100 million for the task. After the Lal Masjid seige of 2007, Musharraf pledged once more to tackle the madrassa problem. Again he did not do so.

If anything, the problem has become worse since then. Unregulated and unregistered madrassas continue to proliferate and are still providing militant groups with fodder for terrorist attacks. Islamabad in particular has seen a mushrooming of madrassas since the Lal Masjid attack, funded by wealthy businessmen at home and expatriates from the Gulf. It is estimated that there are dozens of such madrassas, and students from at least one of them were involved in a militant attack at the Parade Lane in Rawalpindi. Apart from providing a steady stream of foot soldiers to militant groups, they are responsible for the ideological brainwashing of yet another generation of Pakistanis. For the government to be so tardy in pursuing real and meaningful madrassa reform shows just how blind they are to this threat. Fighting militancy will be ineffective unless its ideological root is also tackled.

Dramatic revelations

March 28th, 2011

Our interior minister is given to making some rather startling revelations now and then. He has now stated that all persons suspected of being involved in the 2007 murder of Benazir Bhutto were under arrest and the investigation report into the case revealed who these assassins were and what their real motives were. There has been a hint of a possible attempt to destabilise the region or the country. It is difficult to say at this point what this is all about or what the connotations made by Mr Malik allude to. He has said the PPP’s central executive committee will decide if the report is to be made public or not. Until now, the report has not been produced before the committee, leading to all kinds of questions being raised. We certainly hope the truth, and the whole truth, about one of the most sensational and tragic assassinations in our political history will come out. As citizens, we deserve to know what happened and why. Benazir was, after all, a leader not only of her own party but of people across the country. Many today continue to mourn her death and also the huge political vacuum it has left behind. More than three years after she was assassinated conjecture continues to surround the issue of what happened and why. There are many theories, and over time they have grown. It is time the truth came out.

We must then hope Mr Malik’s words are a step in this direction. The clearing up of the mystery could help ease the sea of conspiracy we have seen swirl for far too long. The doubts and uncertainties have clouded the political atmosphere. We must hope the report, and all the revelations contained within it, will be put before the committee, so that we can know precisely what Mr Malik means and who the people are whom he says have been held in connection with the Benazir killing, thereby ending the sense of uncertainty that has followed it for so many long months.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Cricket diplomacy redux

March 29th, 2011

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is going to join his Indian counterpart, Dr Manmohan Singh, at Mohali to watch the India-Pakistan cricket World Cup semi-final. Islamabad has agreed that good atmospherics with India are needed in these days of steady hostility between the two neighbours. Pakistan has responded to the gesture of invitation by freeing an Indian prisoner languishing in a Pakistani jail for nearly three decades.

TV channels — most of them right-wing and hostile towards India — have unleashed the catalogue of national grievances on their viewers, putting Kashmir on top, saying India will never give it up in the light of UN Security Council resolutions. They have reviewed past instances of cricket diplomacy and moaned over its negative results ‘because of India’s intransigence’. They think that it is no use going to India to watch cricket if India is not willing to talk seriously and meaningfully on outstanding bilateral issues. Of course, there is the accompanying ballyhoo about ‘amn ka chhakka’ (‘a six for peace’) by Dr Singh, and the general public relief at some release of tension following the invitation to Prime Minister Gilani.

The interior secretaries’ meeting that was to be the prelude to the India-Pakistan composite dialogue — that Pakistan has been insisting on —has ended in predictable deadlock. The Indian side has asked us — together with the rest of the world — to do something about Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) before any progress can be made but the court case against jailed LeT members seems to be going nowhere. Veteran Indian journalist Kuldip Nayar, who was in Pakistan recently, said that India will not yield on Kashmir, apart from giving it some measure of autonomy, if Pakistan agrees to do the same thing on its side. It is quite certain that the expectations some of us are attaching to the latest bout of cricket diplomacy are unrealistic. Both prime ministers are in trouble at home and both belong to governments which are perceived as being weak. Dr Singh is in deep trouble because of the corruption his party and its allies have been indulging in. His Pakistani counterpart has troubles that include corruption allegations that cut pretty close to him personally; and there is the threat of being toppled from inside the parliament before his term is complete. What sets them apart is India’s prosperity and high growth rate, popularity in the world community and a tolerable internal law and order situation. Mr Gilani is facing a situation that looks like an endgame for the state itself. So, one may ask, why do they want to meet?

They want to meet for separate reasons. Quite possibly, Dr Singh wants the passionate India-Pakistan cricket duel to distract a public shocked by his government’s corruption. Mr Gilani genuinely wants to lower tension levels with India to be better able to cope with the problem of intra-state conflict. They have met in the past and created good vibes, but Dr Singh has not come of these atmospherics unscathed. What will they do this time that will benefit them both? If the Mohali match passes without an incident and the two prime ministers issue a friendly statement afterwards, they will have achieved a good groundbreaking for what might lie ahead.

Diplomacy will bear fruit if the two move ahead with more initiatives of the same kind. As one columnist writing in this paper from India put it: “Can both sides do what they have been claiming on the front pages of newspapers forever, which is to separate the desires of ordinary people — play cricket, travel to each other’s countries, perhaps to Moenjodaro, or Ajmer Sharif, go out for dinner in Lahore or Amritsar — from the high politics of government?” India has taken a step back from its ‘precondition’ of leashing Lashkar-e-Taiba; Pakistan should respond by facilitating cross-border movement.

The reality is that Shining India (while a flawed picture) has captured the world’s imagination and the country’s rapid economic growth rate has meant that many of its citizens do not really care much for their neighbours. It is in Pakistan’s interest to make the peace process meaningful because, in doing so, it can ultimately benefit from the economic cooperation and enhanced trade ties that will necessarily come about as a result of a lasting peace.

Terror in action

March 29th, 2011

As if the violence we are already seeing in the country, especially in the northern areas, was not enough, there is now a threat of yet more killings and the terror that results when they take place. The Haqqani network and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur militant groups in North Waziristan have organised a loose band of vigilantes — entrusted with the task of hunting out ‘spies’ who could be facilitating US drone actions — into a tighter band named the Lashkar-e-Khorasan, whose job it seems is to hunt down the informants, capture and then execute them. Such ‘justice’ which denies people a right to defend their own actions has been seen before over and again in the tribal areas.

The setting up of what amounts to a death squad in North Waziristan comes in response to stepped up US drone attacks, with at least 100 unmanned flights reported last year. Recently, there has been a new wave of attacks and most of those who died in them were civilians. The anger we see is then not hard to understand — but the response, nonetheless, is terrifying. This is especially so as the militants are given to doing as they say. A few months ago, six motor mechanics were beheaded in Mirali after being suspected of planting chips in cars used by Taliban leaders which allowed the cars to be tracked by drones. And, prior to that, several times bodies of men either beheaded or killed in a hail of bullets have been found in the agency, each with a note attached to it indicating that the man was thought to be a spy for the Americans. The danger, of course, is not just in this kind of vigilante justice. In other places, we have seen members of groups similar to the one set up in North Waziristan using their position to extract revenge or settle old scores. There is a real risk that this could happen again. The situation points to the need to solve the drone issue, which has created a multitude of problems and added to the difficulties involved in solving the militant problem. The squads of the kind we see set up by the militants are unfortunate. But they will vanish only if there is a broader solution which allows Pakistan to regain its sovereignty over places like North Waziristan and thereafter investigate the murders of innocent people by the militants.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga