A city mourns

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Life in Karachi has slowly been moving back to something resembling normal following the Ashura Day suicide attack. The toll from that incident is now up to 43. The toll taken on business, and on other aspects of life, is still unfolding. For months Karachi had been able to stay safe from the deadly terrorist incidents ravaging the rest of the country. It has now found itself pulled into the very centre of that whirlpool of violence. The losses in terms of human life are known. In terms of business the costs are still being calculated. It is estimated that the fires which ravaged markets have claimed at least 10,000 jobs and caused losses worth Rs30 billion. The shopkeepers devastated by the incident hope to gain some compensation. The KCCI is assisting them. But the fact is that not all the jobs lost will be restored and others, such as transporters and labourers who made a living by working at the wholesale market, will suffer too. The interior minister has said an inquiry has been initiated into why the fire began and how it took hold so rapidly. The suspicion being strong that the fire was premeditated.

The spectre of terrorism in Karachi is an especially menacing one. As the hub of business and commerce in the country, unrest here has an impact on virtually every other town and city. Disrupted transport heading out from Karachi affected the entire southern Punjab on Tuesday. There is also the issue of confidence in Pakistan. If businessmen and foreign investors fear instability in Karachi, this inevitably means a loss in faith and a consequent economic downslide. We can simply not afford this at the present time given that re-building a sound economy remains a primary priority. Efforts to keep Karachi safe from terrorism must be stepped up. The prospect of further attacks in the country's largest city is horrendous. We must do everything possible to avoid it and thus prevent a further descent into mayhem.


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All aboard!

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Meeting aboard a ship just off the coast of Gwadar, the four chief ministers, the finance minister and the prime minister have, at a historic summit, signed the 7th National Finance Commission Award. The signing ceremony was followed by exuberant embraces and an exchange of congratulations. The achievement is no small one – coming is it does after a period approaching two decades. The finance minister, who played a pivotal role in pushing through the negotiations which led to the contours of the new award being agreed on, deserves a round of applause, and so do the chief ministers for showing considerable give and take, willingness to hear each other out and take heed of mutual concerns. It was this spirit – and the willingness from Punjab to change the criteria for the award – which led to success.

The dramatic meeting aboard a ship was symbolic and demonstrated a will to keep the federation sailing on and staying afloat even when the waters are stormy. The choice of Gwadar as a venue also marks a recognition of the development potential of this port and indeed other places in our country. The question now is whether the government can keep all the four provinces safely on board, pour oil on troubled waters and move towards a brighter tomorrow. Certainly, we need all groups in the country to work together to haul it out of trouble. The pledge by the PM at Gwadar that the 17th Amendment would be done away with also promises the possibility of greater harmony across the political spectrum. The signing of the NFC Award is indeed an achievement. But we now have to move beyond this, towards even greater effort to overcome problems, with all the provinces playing their part in keeping the ship of state moving smoothly on.


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Slow burn

Thursday, December 31, 2009

CNG vendors went on strike and are threatening to strike indefinitely. The All Pakistan CNG Association says that it has no option as the government has forced its hand by refusing to accept their demands. The APCNGA was asking that the 50 per cent price differential between gas and petrol prices be restored as per the 1992 Petroleum Policy; a cancellation of the two-day 'holiday' for CNG stations, and thirdly no rise in CNG prices from January 1, 2010. It was never likely that the government was going to agree to any of these and we now face yet another power-related crisis. The knock-on effect of the CNG station shutdown is going to feed the growing sense that this is a government bumbling its way towards the brink. The price rise of 18.5 per cent from the beginning of January is going to hit the common man hardest, and he will be doubly hit because the transporters have decided to join the strike in solidarity with the CNG stations.

The move to promote CNG was, until recently, a success story. The sector is estimated to have attracted an investment of Rs185 billion and Pakistan has more than 3,000 CNG stations – 2,500 stations in Punjab and NWFP, with 542 in Sindh and Balochistan. More than 2.5 million vehicles are running on CNG. Despite all this we appear to have a shortage of the product at source. We are having a warmer – and shorter – winter than in previous years but there is a reported shortfall of 350mmcfd in the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines systems according to an official of the petroleum ministry. Representatives of the CNG industry at a press conference in Peshawar told a different story, claiming that there was no shortage of natural gas as supplies had been resumed from the Manzalai gas-fields. It is impossible to know one way or the other who is right – the petroleum ministry or the CNG industry spokesman; and it is almost an irrelevance as the crisis is now upon us, CNG stations are closed over most of the country and the transport system is grinding to a halt. There is now an accretion of deficits – gas, electricity, water – that are for the most part the result of poor resource management and development. The current government has done very little by way of either tackling or reducing the impact of any of them, and there is little sign either that it knows how to. The systemic deficits are now feeding into one another and have a synergy of their own – another dark and stagnant year waits around the corner.

Promises, promises

Friday, January 01, 2010

Within the last month the president is on record as saying that he would abolish the 17th Amendment to the constitution in December. These words are written on the last day of the last month of the year and the 17th Amendment is still in place. Promise unfulfilled, Mr President. On Thursday it is the turn of the prime minister to pick up the 'promises' baton. He spoke of his government's resolve to restore the 1973 Constitution to its original form and more specifically to remove the bar to an individual becoming president for a third term. Constitutional amendments made by dictators, he declared at the ceremony celebrating the signing of the 7th NFC Award, would be 'scrapped'. The average man-in-the-street would be forgiven for saying that he has heard all this before. Heard he certainly has, but seen … very little.

Amidst these promissory notes of jam tomorrow there are those apparently struck dumb and silent – namely the leading voices of the opposition and most notably the leading voice of the PML-N. It would appear that the opposition is engaged in a prolonged bout of masterly inactivity; the better to let their rivals rip themselves to political shreds and to offer their collective throats to the wolf come the next election. That the party of governance is being hoisted by a succession of its own petards is painfully obvious – the power crisis in its various manifestations, looming drought and increasing mutterings from the grassroots that the president may have a wallaby loose in the north paddock – an Australian euphemism for things not being entirely mentally serene. Amidst all this there is a man who seems increasingly adept at keeping his balance – a useful trick when you shift the cabinet en bloc to a maritime venue – and that is Prime Minister Gilani. He will be keeping a close eye on the wind as do all good sailors and a sharp lookout for hidden reefs – one of which may be his own leader. Giving the order to bail out and take to the lifeboats is always the prerogative of the captain of the ship. We listen attentively as the New Year dawns.


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Out with a bang

Friday, January 01, 2010

A new year has begun. As the first sun of 2010 shines down on our country, we all hope the 365 days of this year will be less violent, less bloody and less distressing than those that have just passed. At least 1,180 people died in bomb blasts carried out in 2009. Most of them were men, women and children who had no connection with militancy, or the policies the militants oppose. There were over 70 suicide bombings in the country – easily surpassing the 55 or so such attacks seen the previous year. The gristly sight of dismembered bodies and blood-stained streets was etched deeply into our shared consciousness, with the ferocity of the attacks picking up pace following the military operation launched in Malakand in May and particularly after action in South Waziristan in October. What is most alarming is that despite apparent victory for a determined Pakistan Army in these parts, there is no certainty that the bombings will soon become a thing of the past. Indeed the militants seem to have retained their capacity to strike at will, giving us an indication of the kind of enemy we are up against. The fear that the bloodshed will continue into 2010 lurks in every mind and stalks virtually every street.

The violence meant that the feeling of euphoria encountered at the start of 2009, as judges were restored after a successful long march in the spring, dissipated. But the judiciary remains a key focus for the optimism that exists, with verdicts declaring the emergency of 2007 illegal and dismantling the NRO greeted with good cheer. The actions taken by the apex court to remedy judicial corruption, to save playgrounds seized by commercial enterprises and to look at the pricing of essential commodities also gave people hope that they had some quarter to turn to for their grievances to be redressed. This was important given the mounting heap of such complaints. Before it levelled off after the first half of the year, inflation in the prices of food items ate into the miniscule budgets available to most families to run households. To make their task still harder, acute flour and sugar shortages were experienced. Just as crippling were the prolonged cuts in power combined with bills which rose steadily under IMF dictates. Layoffs from factories and workshops unable to function without electricity added to the gloom and, as the year drew to an end, the government confessed that its promise that the power crisis would end by the end of 2009 had been in vain.

A few rays of light shone through. Gilgit-Baltistan voted in its first legislative assembly, there were efforts to pull FATA into the mainstream, a package to bring reconciliation in Balochistan was tabled and there was activism from women in parliament on issues central to their rights. People everywhere also agitated with greater vigour to claim their due, staging demonstrations against inflated utility bills and drawing attention to cases of medical negligence. But, in the absence of anything resembling good governance, such efforts represented little more than a drop in the ocean. The breakdown in the coalition setup after the 2008 elections gained pace, with the PPP and the PML-N pulling apart. Public disdain for the ruling party – and especially the president grew – all the more so as controversy raged over the NRO and its scrapping. Even as slogans were raised demanding democracy be protected, people questioned what precisely democracy meant given the growing distance between them and a state unwilling to address their primary problems. The note on which 2009 ends is not a happy one. The bombing of the Ashura Day gathering in Karachi ensured this. The fears, the uncertainties and the instability generated by the events of 2009 will carry forward into the year that now begins. We can only hope and pray that by the time it ends, we can look ahead to the future with greater confidence than is today the case.

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Fooling nobody

Monday, January 04, 2010

For the whole of 2009, at virtually every public venue he addressed or press briefing that he or his department gave, Federal Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said that loadshedding would be a thing of the past by December 2009. He continued to say this in the face of a mountain of evidence that what he was saying was, to put it as politely as a family newspaper may allow, utter nonsense. Now, it is not fair or right to lay the blame for the electricity crisis only at the feet of the present government, but even so the minister must have understood at some point that about 170 million people were falling over laughing every time he opened his mouth.

Consider the following. Once the power shortfall crossed the 1,000 megawatts line in 2005, it became uncontrollable as the gap between supply and demand increased. In the last year (2009) the shortfall during peak hours was 3,000-4,500 MW. Over the last eight years the demand for power has increased by 65 per cent as the economy grew as did the cities – which are power-hungry monsters. Against this, supply increased by between 30 and 35 per cent. Nursery-class mathematics tells us that the gap between the two means that at any one time the nation has a 30 per cent shortfall in its power needs. All day. Every day. Hot or cold. The installation of rental power plants has done nothing to end the problem (they produce a tiny 285MW) and the annual cleaning of canals and the service of hydro-electric units have added to the nation’s woes as we enter 2010. The effect on every sector of the economy has been catastrophic and is set to get worse. Major cities are without power for up to 14 hours a day. Some rural areas are reporting the power off for 16 hours a day. Even Islamabad, home to the rich and powerful, is as powerless as the rest of the country. So what we would like to know, Mr Federal Water and Power Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, is what you are doing about it, when you are going to have done it by and if you can get it done before the entire nation grinds to a halt. And if you can’t, we promise not to throw light bulbs at you if you tell us the honest truth of the matter.

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Minus how many?

Monday, January 04, 2010

Nothing is ever simple or straightforward in the Byzantine state that we live in today. The latest in a line of fiendishly complicated manoeuvrings concerns assorted people at the top of the National Accountability Bureau, (NAB). The government is less than delighted by the way a new zeal has imbued the agency, and particularly peeved that NAB acted so expeditiously to implement the Supreme Court order on the NRO. It seems that a counter-punch, the ‘minus-many operation’ is now underway to clip the wings of a resurgent NAB. The NAB chairman has been obliged to remove several of the body’s most important officials, principally those who were compiling lists following the Supreme Court’s short order. The replacements for the zealots are said to be government sympathisers and not prone to compile long and embarrassing lists. The law ministry is said to be seeking details of any vacant posts there might be in NAB, doubtless so that it can identify the finest and least-biased legal minds to fill them. Or not.

One of those removed, Shahzad Bhatti, was the person who issued the letter to all and sundry ordering the immediate implementation of the orders of the apex court. Even more intriguingly, Mr Bhatti was the custodian of the evidence that had been collected by NAB and stored in its strongroom. One might legitimately speculate as to the whereabouts of that evidence now or indeed its continued existence. There are many on ‘the list’ who will be glad to see the back of Mr Bhatti. Of course all of these changes are purely internal and have nothing at all to do with the government applying pressure to our fragile body; says a NAB spokesman speaking with his arm up his back and a look of exquisite pain across his face. Others say different, say that it is an attempt to de-fang NAB and bring it to heel. This latter explanation at least has the ring of credibility about it.


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Demolition job

Monday, January 04, 2010

It is distinctly heartening at the start of a new year to hear the crash of falling masonry in Lahore as assorted illegal plazas and other encroachments meet their just desserts. It is also equally heartening to be able to hand a plaudit rather than a brickbat to a politician – in this case Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab. His administration has been pursuing an aggressive and hugely successful operation against illegal buildings, some of them very large and expensive projects owned by some very large and expensive men, who are deeply upset to see their investments turned into rubble. We have not a shred of sympathy for them. Mr Sharif, speaking at the inauguration of the new Shalimar Interchange last Friday, said he would not be daunted by the hue and cry raised over the demolition of illegal plazas. He went on to say that those who built illegal structures did not have the poor man’s interest at heart – which is true enough but then big business never does, legal or otherwise.

What would really make a difference is if other provincial governors and city managers were to take a leaf from Mr Sharif’s book. If there is one evil we are able to confront and defeat, it is the cancer of encroachments. They come in all shapes and sizes in all provinces and in towns large and small. They clog the streets, snarl the traffic, force pedestrians into dangerous proximity to cars, cause a public nuisance as they are never built with off-street parking if they are a shopping mall or wedding hall and allow insidious fingers of corruption into every corner. Those who purchase the shops inside some of these buildings are told they are ‘legal’ when they are not, and honest folks have seen their investments torn down as well. It is unfortunate for them, but there can be no half-measures. Fining the offenders is no solution – the solution is to tear down anything that is illegally built, enforce building regulations and begin to win at least one of the many battles we have to fight.

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Fogged up

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

The northern parts of the country have been brought to a standstill by fog which has blanketed Lahore and other cities. Sections of the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway have had to be closed down due to visibility of only a few hundred metres, and there has been chaos at airports with dozens of flights delayed or cancelled. It is easy to attribute all this to natural phenomena. But it is worth thinking about just a little more deeply. In other nations across the globe, where winters are long and dominated by snow, sleet, rain and freezing winds, life continues more or less on track. Flights at major airports take off and land in all kinds of weather.

It is also a fact that for us fog is a relatively recent problem, descending with a vengeance only since the 1990s. In this context it is reminiscent of the smog that gripped London during the 1960s or the similar problems that overwhelmed New Delhi a few decades later. What is significant is that the authorities in both these cities recognised that worsening environmental air quality was a key factor in the problem. This is certainly the case in Lahore too where vehicular and industrial emissions have contributed immensely to the fog problem. It is time the problem was tackled. This is necessary not only to combat travel disruptions and the inconveniences they cause, but also because worsening air quality with high levels of suspended particles is having a terrible impact on health. Rates of asthma and other respiratory complaints in children have increased markedly, and this alone indicates an urgent need to make some effort to remedy the situation.


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No caviar to the general

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Sunday described relations with the army as being on an even keel. He has also praised the pro-democracy views of the incumbent chief of the army staff on more than one occasion. While it is always a relief to learn that the boots are not itching to march towards Islamabad's Constitution Avenue, the question remains whether it behoves the chief executive of the country to repeatedly refer to the complacency and good mannerism of government functionaries and subordinate state institutions? Also, since when have the moral and legal authority of a duly elected political dispensation been placed on the same pedestal as that of a government service? Military adventurism has never been placated by pandering statements of the political leadership. To keep the record straight, every successive military dictator invariably started off as a 'good professional soldier', each one praised by his appointing authority as being so different from some of his adventurous predecessors. And yet, come certain circumstances and it is yesterday once more.

The only real bulwark against any ultra-constitutional adventurism remains good governance. If the government of the day is seen by the people to be working for them, and not furthering the vested interests of the high and mighty, then not even the most daring of the generals may dare intervene. The need of the hour is not for the prime minister to exhaust all his energies solely to bridge the gaps, whether real or imaginary, between his government, his president and his army generals but between his government and the people of Pakistan. Keeping this group or that at bay is just a temporary palliative at best as permanence lies in earning the nation's continued faith. The ruling dispensation got the mandate to come into power on the basis of the pledges made to the people, for it to remain so it must now deliver on them. The nation indeed owes a huge debt to its valiant forces, its officers and jawans, who have fallen in the line of fire so that we can rise as a nation. The nation owes them its eternal gratitude, and so do their own superiors who must not even think of tarnishing their selfless sacrifices for the sake of adventurism. So Mr Prime Minister, please get on with the job of providing leadership and governance. The rest will fall in place on its own.


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One-note tune

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

The monotonous drone of the PPP whingeing about the media generally and a 'certain media group' in particular which, it says, is excavating the foundations of democracy in order to bring it crashing around our ears continues. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira and PPP Secretary Information Fauzia Wahab were in action over the weekend, adamant that there were elements of the media actively working to destabilise and, if possible, bring down the PPP government. They see conspiracies being hatched in the depths of media empires as fast as they can be thrown beneath a chicken big enough to incubate them. Ms Wahab has informed the world that new directives to the party's district information secretaries have been issued to counter the "campaign launched against the president through the media". The media doubtless trembles in its collective boots at exactly what this might mean, particularly given that political activists seem to have taken it upon themselves to assault members of the Fourth Estate if they do not like what is written about their glorious leaders.

The government and the PPP leadership need to get themselves a reality check. They may be surprised to learn that it is the job of the media in a free and democratic society – which we are sure they regard this country as being – to criticise the government, its officers and institutions. There does not seem to be any evidence that has been presented thus far to support the idea that 'the media' wishes to undermine democracy – indeed the opposite is the truth. The media generally, and certainly as it is constituted in the Pakistan of today, has a strong vested interest in the preservation of democracy, and would be one of the first to suffer if democracy were undermined or collapsed. Far from undermining democracy the media is doing much to foster it by exposing those who claim to be democrats but still seek to perpetuate feudal rule. The media questions ineptitude at every level of governance. It challenges misleading or unclear statements by ministers and bureaucrats. It lays bare our social ills and even offers remedy for some of them. Robust criticism should not be mistaken for a lack of commitment to democracy and its institutions and processes. And those who cannot bear the heat of scrutiny shouldn't be in the political kitchen anyway.

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Killings in Karachi

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

The term 'target killing' sanitises the underlying reason for the murder of 256 people in Karachi over the last six months. It is a convenient euphemism for political and sectarian murder – people being killed for their religious adherences or their political affiliations. Most of the murders have been political and include workers of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (Haqiqi), the PPP and the ANP; with 41 of them attributable to sectarian differences. Karachi has a history of political violence and it seems that there is little by way of 'initiatives' that the current government can do to limit them. Sectarian murders are a national issue and not Karachi-specific.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik (who at least in this instance has our sympathies) has chaired a meeting this week in an attempt to get agencies involved in the tracking and catching of those doing the murdering to better coordinate their efforts. Eighteen areas of the city have been identified as the locus and are being 'notified' under the relevant section of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). The rangers have had their powers extended, enabling them to arrest and hold any person involved in violence for up to 90 days and they are to be given the power to 'deal with' any extraordinary situation. The government has no choice but to act as it has, but the wearying reality is that target killings are not going to stop, no matter the forces deployed to stop it, until those doing the killing decide to stop it. This means that political parties and religious groups have to take a clear and concrete decision that they will not sanction murder, not condone it and not support or harbour those that commit it. All the parties and groups publicly condemn the butchery, yet seem unable to control those of their supporters who carry it out. For that to change a lot of people are going to have to start thinking differently – and we have scant hope of that occurring in the foreseeable future.

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On tour

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Suddenly we have a president who is both visible and mobile. There can be little doubt that the presidency has been stung by the criticism levelled at it from across the entire spectrum of the media, namely that an invisible president sends the wrong message to the nation. It is also a recognition by the PPP that it was suffering more generally as the president's approval ratings dropped like a stone; and it remains to be seen whether his new charm offensive is going to be anything other than a flash in the pan. Appearing in public may be a step in the right direction, but what the president says during his appearances has yet to be harmonised with reality as experienced by the rest of the population. He is on safe ground when speaking of matters concrete and tangible, and unveiling a plaque at the Chief Minister's House at the initiation of the Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas dual carriageway road project is about as safe as it gets. A photo-call with our sailors is likewise safe – and a deserved recognition of their service for the navy, which sometimes seems not to get its fair share when it comes to credit being distributed.

Matters become a little more tricky when he speaks extempore. Recent references to various theories of conspiracy aimed at undermining democracy as well as past statements in which he claimed to know who it was that murdered his wife but was not telling anybody until the time was right do little to enhance either the man or his office. Our politicians have a long and sometimes honourable history of unscripted speaking – but they also have a history of making statements unsupported by facts, making claims and accusations that are unfounded and generally pandering to the lowest common denominator. We are at a time when our politics is dominated by schism rather than unity, and although schism is part and parcel of the political process unity in the face of adversity should bridge it – and the president, who should be above party politics, is the person in whose office that responsibility sits. People would also like to see him addressing us in a manner that appears to be underpinned by coherence, logic and a sense that he is a president for all. A good speech writer may be of assistance as well.

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Wiser now?

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

A mysterious outbreak of self-awareness and honesty has developed in some parts of the political establishment. The most prominent affectee appears to be the prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, who has said that his government committed a serious error by not moving swiftly to implement the Charter of Democracy when the PPP won the 2008 general elections. The political waters have muddied since the Charter of Democracy was signed in May 2006 and many may have forgotten precisely what it was that the late Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif committed their parties to. The CoD has four principal sections and assorted sub-headings. The principal sections relate to constitutional amendments restoring the constitution to something close to that of 1973, a political code of conduct, free and fair elections and lastly the relationship between the military and civil powers.

Even with the benefit of hindsight we can see that this is a useful, pragmatic and even foundation on which to build the necessary reforms to our much-battered society and its institutions, and if we had moved swiftly to its implementation after the election, we might have gotten somewhere today. That the prime minister is now saying that the government is working on a package of constitutional reforms in line with the CoD is a welcome development, as is his recognition that the failure to work more closely with the opposition parties in the period immediately after the election contributed to the polarities that hamstring political development today. There was a brief window of opportunity in the weeks immediately following the election when it looked like old rivals might have decided to bury the hatchet – in the ground rather than in one another's backs. But it was not to be, default positions were resumed and we are now at a political stalemate. The Charter of Democracy, if implemented in letter and spirit, remains our least-worst option for fixing a lot that has been decades in the breaking. If the political will to do so can be found among the scrapping parties, then this important document may eventually have life breathed into it.

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Friends and foes

Friday, January 08, 2010

During his visit to Karachi, Mian Nawaz Sharif has emphatically stated he has no intention of ditching President Asif Ali Zardari. While relations between the PPP and the PML-N have seen ups and downs for sometime, the chief of the PML-N has suggested he is willing to continue to hold out a hand of friendship. He has also said that the problems facing the country are so enormous that they simply cannot be solved by any one party alone. In this context he referred specifically to the latest bomb blasts in Karachi and Lakki Marwat. But he went beyond this also, to raise the issue of loadshedding and its impact as well as other problems we all confront. Few would doubt that Mr Sharif is right when he says it needs a joint effort to counter these matters. Games of accusations and counteraccusations will lead us nowhere at all but simply push us deeper into the pit that has been dug over many decades and which today threatens to swallow all that is good within our nation.

We need to find a solid rope that can be used to climb out from that pit. If necessary, we must tie together the broken pieces of twine we can find to put together such a rope. But as things stand, we need to build consensus and harmony. The major political parties and other groups in society need to work together towards creating a tomorrow for Pakistan. At present too many fear that this tomorrow looks bleak. This despondency will change only if a national vision can be created. To do so the government would act wisely to accept the hand held out by the PML-N chief.

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SC and the system

Friday, January 08, 2010

In some highly pointed remarks on the existing system and the threat to it, a three-member SC bench has observed that the issue of missing persons is a far bigger one than that of the NRO. The SC also noticed that after its ruling on the NRO an upheaval had been created, threatening to throw the country into turmoil. The court's observations should make all of us take note. The issue of missing persons, and the involvement of key agencies in it, is one that has gone on now for years. It involves ordinary people taken away from homes or public places. The apparent threat the taking up of this matter poses to the establishment was evidenced by the fact that the November 2007 dismissal of the court by the former regime of President Pervez Musharraf came just days after the SC summoned heads of key agencies in the case.

We must now see what the elected government's real commitment to democracy is and how much it believes in the slogans it has raised. The fact is that the system can only be strengthened by strengthening democracy and all that it stands for. The question we must ask is if our government has the wisdom and good sense to recognise that stability can be gained only by squarely addressing issues such as that of the missing persons. This also raises issues of credibility. The prime minister has already stated in parliament that the missing persons would return home. This has, except in a handful of cases, yet to happen. Unless it does, matters in Balochistan will remain volatile and there can be no hope of winning back the trust of the people of that province. The SC has also noted that the issue of the system appears to be raised whenever it suits the government. Experience over the past years shows how true it is. What is also sad is that each time a problem is pointed out by the courts it tends to be taken amiss by governments. This has, in the past, led to a clash between institutions. That threat is again with us today. The need is for action to be taken in the national interest. In no genuinely democratic system should people be 'picked up' and held illegally for years. The apex court has taken the initiative by pointing this out again.


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Game over

Friday, January 08, 2010

Power generation is approaching a crisis again and this time it has the potential to be truly catastrophic rather than merely an unconscionable burden. National fuel reserves – the fuel that is used to power thermal generators – have dropped to twelve days. Pakistan State Oil is unable to import the oil that we desperately need because it cannot afford to pay for it. Two ships are already loaded and waiting to bring the oil to us but until their cargo is paid for they will not leave port. The PSO general manager was perhaps understandably reticent when asked about this matter but grudgingly admitted that the ships had been delayed and that any further comment on the oil reserves and how long they would last if not replenished was 'not in the interest of the country.'

Not in the interests of the country? It most certainly is in the interests of the country because if this little wrinkle is not ironed out soon, we could be facing not just loadshedding but a national power shutdown for all but essential services – an eventuality that is now measurably imminent. It is not known where the ships carrying the oil are at present, but even if their cargo is paid for today and they can leave on the next tide they will take days to get here and unload; and we are running out of days. The underlying cause of the lack of liquidity at PSO is the eternal problem of circular debt – they can't pay for the oil because they are not themselves paid what they are owed. Into the equation has to be added the fact that hydro power generation is very low at 517MW -- understandable as the water level has decreased in both Tarbela and Mangla dams and canals are closed for cleaning and are likely to remain so for another month. Further pain is brought by the weather – the winter rains have failed this year, down 96 per cent in Punjab alone – and the stage is set for a collision of problems that have the capacity to literally bring the country to its knees. In all of this there is an irony – we are producing 7,486MW electricity against an installed capacity of 20,231MW. Power generation has fallen to just above one-third of the generation capacity and is set to fall further in coming days. This time, it really could be 'game over'.

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Consequences

Monday, January 11, 2010

Thirteen days after the attempt to bring down an airliner as it was coming in to land in Detroit, a report has been published on the intelligence failures that so nearly led to catastrophe. There are few surprises, and most of its contents were either in, or close to in, the public domain already. The report was immediately ‘owned’ by President Obama and his response both privately and publicly was blunt and unequivocal. American security and intelligence agencies had the information that would have allowed them to deduce that there was an imminent threat, they had a named individual as a suspect, and they failed to ‘join the dots’. Unacceptable, said President Obama, and ‘we cannot allow this to happen again’. There will be adjustments that we will never see as they will be in the ‘secret world’ but there is already a very visible adjustment, and it is not proving to be popular in Pakistan, as evidenced by the comments of Prime Minister Gilani last Thursday.

The adjustment that the Americans have made – as well as a number of other European states though with less fanfare – is to issue a list of states whose nationals will now be of ‘special interest’ when they travel to the US from anywhere in the world. All of the countries on the list are either Muslim or have a Muslim majority population, and one of them is, inevitably, Pakistan. Passengers from those fourteen nations will receive additional baggage and body checks and are increasingly likely to be required to pass through whole-body scanners as they are introduced globally. Prime Minister Gilani, during a meeting with a US Congressional delegation led by Senator John McCain last Friday, urged the Obama administration to revisit this policy and asked for the immediate removal of Pakistan from the list of countries affected by it. Ask he may, get he won’t. The policy is discriminatory and in contravention of a sheaf of human rights. It is likely to impact negatively on our already tendentious relationship with Uncle Sam. Are the Muslims unfairly targeted? Yes; as it is only a tiny minority of extremists that are holding a gun to the head of the rest of the Muslim world by their actions – which have the consequence of Muslims everywhere being penalised. The rest of the world will seek to protect itself in the face of a perceived threat which has translated into explosive reality uncomfortably often since 9/11. And the consequence of that is tighter borders, fewer visas, longer queues and a further erosion of the amity that binds the comity of nations and faiths together.


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Moderation lives

Monday, January 11, 2010

The Swiss, those models of rectitude and probity, the neutral heart of Europe, may have a lesson to learn from us. A poll released on January 8 and conducted by the Gilani/Gallup organisation reveals that 69 per cent of all Pakistanis believe that Christians in countries where they are a minority among a Muslim majority should have the right to build churches. The remaining 31 per cent either did not support the idea or expressed no opinion. The poll was conducted in the aftermath of a referendum in Switzerland that vetoed the building of mosques with minarets. The poll also threw up a number of other interesting insights, at least one of them unexpected. Contrary to common perceptions and frequently expressed stereotypes, the people of NWFP appear to be far more tolerant than elsewhere, and a comforting 81 per cent ‘believe that Christian minorities have a right to worship and the governments of Muslim countries like Pakistan should allow the construction of their churches.’

Polls are one thing, and ground realities another. We cannot know how many of those polled would actively support the building of the places of worship of faiths other than Islam in Pakistan. Nor can we reliably predict what might be the reaction of the 31 per cent who were either opposed or of no expressed opinion. Nor can we tell to what extent the respondents were swayed in their answers by a desire to demonstrate that they were more moderate than the dastardly Swiss – and replied in a manner not truly reflective of their opinions. However, even allowing for unknowns and possible inconsistencies the poll does suggest that we have not become entirely overwhelmed by religious intolerance and that there is still a streak of moderation within us. It is an indicator that, at heart, a majority of the population is tolerant and moderate. What is missing is a way of channelling that moderation and tolerance, of bringing it into the political and societal mainstream, which is increasingly dominated by violence and division. We seem never to have developed the mechanism which would allow the growth of an inclusive and diverse society that would celebrate its differences, rather than negatively exploiting them. Perhaps the poll offers us the hope that we have the potential to do so and all we await is the leadership and vision to create it. It could be a long wait.


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The price of life

Monday, January 11, 2010

In Punjab rises in the price of flour over the past few weeks, as a result of agreements between the provincial government and millers, have made life increasingly hard for ordinary people. The rate for the staple has most recently risen by Rs9 per 20 kg bag. Putting together the simplest meal has become almost impossible for more and more citizens. Prices of other commodities too have risen. The question is what people are expected to do in a situation where they must struggle simply to eat. There is no effective welfare net for them to fall back on. Most people already report a distinct decline in the quality of their lives over the years. Items like fruit, many vegetables, any form of meat and milk are already considered a luxury. These had once regularly appeared on the tables from where they have vanished.

The situation is not one that can be ignored consistently. The issue of inflation in the price of food items is one central to most lives. The government must address it. Yet, sadly, the matter is not a priority for most major parties. It must be made one. Otherwise the gap that has opened up between people and their political leaders will continue to grow in leaps and bounds, causing immense damage to the socio-political equation in the country and adding to the tremendous hardships that constitute the lives of people. Leaders indeed must be asked how long people will have to continue to tolerate such deprivation and they must think how long it will be before it leads to the kind of mass unrest we all fear.

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To and fro

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband has once more been and gone. He has been a frequent visitor to these shores during his tenure – but may not be for much longer as the Labour government of Gordon Brown looks set to lose the upcoming general election in the UK. So what was achieved on either side beyond symbolic handshakes? Probably very little. There was an exchange of views about the bottleneck in the visa process but there is little likelihood that the UK is going to ease its visa regime for Pakistanis any more than is the US. Indeed, if the Labour government falls to be replaced by the Conservatives we may expect the situation regarding visas to significantly worsen as their leader David Cameron has already hinted strongly at a further tightening of the rules. We will also see a new British foreign secretary, who is going to come to the job with a different eye and a very different political agenda – so this may have been Mr Miliband's farewell performance in Pakistan.

Our president talked of the need to strengthen ties, boost trade and investment and to invest in education as a means to combat militancy. The forthcoming London conference on Afghanistan was also on the agenda, and Pakistan will need to be more than a distant observer at that event as whatever happens in Afghanistan ripples quickly into Pakistan. Likewise the Pakistan-EU summit that is in the offing. There was nothing unexpected and it all passed routinely; but the matters discussed are all caught in the jaws of that hungry beast -- terrorism. Investing in education not only means that the national curriculum will have to be overhauled to drag it into the 21st century but it is also going to arouse the anger of those who daily blow up schools in NWFP. Trade and investment? Yes, but… this is a one-product nation in terms of exports – cotton, and its various manufactured by-products. Apart from this we have little that the rest of the world wants. Inwards investment is increasingly hampered by fears of terrorism and even if the 'terrorism' switch was set to 'off' tomorrow it would be a long time before venture capitalists ventured in this direction. Farewell then, Mr Miliband. Nice to see you as ever but we do sometimes wonder what, beyond an exchange of fraternal greetings and expressions of eternal partnership, all this to-ing and fro-ing actually achieves?

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The 'what ifs'

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The world is awash with 'what ifs' and our part of it rather more than many others. The plethora of conspiracy theories that swirl around our ankles are a subset of the 'what if' school of thought, and now we have General Petraeus diving in. He tells CNN in an interview aired on Sunday that Iran's nuclear facilities…"can be bombed." He goes on to say that it would be irresponsible of the US Central Command if it did not think about the various 'what ifs' and make contingency plans to cover them. The general does not go into any detail as the how and with what Iranian nuclear sites may be bombed; but as the US has a vast repertoire of munitions that can be air- or space-delivered they are almost spoilt for choice. They are unlikely to use nuclear weapons as even the Americans would baulk at being the first to use them aggressively since Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed; but there are conventional weapons of such power that the nuclear option is almost irrelevant. Israel on the other hand may not be so reticent, and it has also said that if it decided that the threat presented by Iran was so great that it merited action, then so be it.

'What if' is not conspiracy theory, it is just a way of planning for the possible. And if there are 'what ifs' concerning an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities then it is reasonable to assume that the 'what ifs' will be asked about any number of other countries in which the US has strategic interests. This would include all the countries within this region as well as the Middle East and even, conceivably, countries in South America. We may be entering what some analysts are calling the 'post-American era' but America remains the only nation able to project its power militarily the world over and we are a couple of decades away from that balance changing. The aftershocks, were the US to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, may well trigger the definitive break between it and the Muslim world. One might wonder if the 'what ifs' of that scenario have been the subject of a table-top exercise or computer modeling.

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Media bullseye

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The Interior Ministry's National Crisis Management Cell has warned that the Taliban have been angered by their depiction by the media as villains, and could be out to bomb them. The bomb hoax at the building housing this newspaper, 'Geo' TV and other publications of the 'Jang Group' in Lahore Sunday night as well as at the nearby WAPDA building could be a warning of things to come. There is indeed growing evidence that the media is becoming a key target. The attack on the press club in Peshawar late last year indicates the threat is in earnest. Tougher security measures have since been taken at all press club buildings in big cities and at many media offices, in some cases impeding the working of professionals who depend on close interaction with all kinds of people.

The anger of the militants underscores the fact that the media has done well to expose them and their deeds. It is obviously succeeding. Public opinion has swung quite sharply against the Taliban. In Swat, and elsewhere, this has played a part in their defeat. Many who saw them as heroes have changed their minds. For this the reporters, the cameramen and the newsroom personnel who brought us accounts of brutality and injustice committed in the name of religion deserve a round of applause. Their bravery has often been quite extraordinary. We know they will continue their mission and refuse to be scared off by the latest tactics of the terrorists. Indeed the growing desperation of the Taliban shows how deeply they have been wounded. It is, however, important also for the government to recognise the contribution of the media in the war on terror and do all it can to protect it. Organisations too must safeguard those in the field as well as in offices. It is vital at this juncture that the task of exposing the true faces of the Taliban continues. Much has already been done in this respect. More still needs to be done to inflict a final defeat on them.

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Horror

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

The death of any child is a tragedy, but to have an infant killed by its parents in an attempt to rid their household of demons takes us beyond the tragic. In Karachi's Zaman Town area a four-month-old was killed in the course of an exorcism and her body buried in the family compound. When the police broke into the house they found the father of the child in a trance surrounded by earthenware lamps; and the mother locked in a closet with another child with both in a distressed condition. The father told the police that he believed the family to be cursed because they had broken an 8-day fast. He said that their spiritual leader, said to be living in Dera Ismail Khan, had told them to silence the child if they wanted to remove the demons from their house.

Although the death of a child in this manner is unusual, the practice of exorcism is common and found in all our faith communities. They are sometimes performed by reputable people, but increasingly they are performed by 'fake Pirs' who prey on a highly suggestible populace, girls and women in particular, and there is ample anecdotal evidence of 'fake Pirs' molesting women and girls. The conventional wisdom is that it is the poor and uneducated who are the primary victims of these unscrupulous people, but there is again evidence that the educated and moneyed classes are no less susceptible to their wiles. Also vulnerable are the mentally ill, in particular those suffering from epilepsy (a condition that is controllable with medication) who are believed to be possessed by evil spirits manifesting themselves through fits. We do not know for certain at this point if the influence of a 'fake Pir' lies behind the death of this child, or if it was the parents acting of their own volition. Either way, the child was murdered – sacrificed – in the belief that her death would drive out whatever evil was believed to be in the house. In 2008 two women were killed in Mirpurkhas by being thrown alive into a fire on the pretext of exorcism, the sad result of interfamilial jealousy and false accusations. There are reports of broken limbs and other injuries associated with the casting out of 'devils'. Exorcising the malign spirits in our midst is as much a job for the law-enforcement agencies as it is for 'holy men' and the exposure of 'fake pirs' and their prosecution will leave us all a little cleaner.

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Corrupt to the bone

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

A story in this newspaper details massive corruption in the Pakistan Steel Mills. Another discloses a plan to cover it up and allow the top management to get away with looting the organisation. Meanwhile, a former naval chief has confirmed that a deal to purchase submarines from France did indeed involve kickbacks for key officials in office at the time. Among them of course was a certain Mr Asif Ali Zardari. These are not matters that can be easily dismissed. There seems to be no getting away from the corruption which is eating away at the soul of our country like a cancer. It continues despite directives from the SC to move against it and the increased outrage of people who watch helplessly as they see immense sums of money vanish into pockets even as hardships grow for most citizens. The chief justice, in comments while hearing the Bank of Punjab case, has reiterated previous warnings that corruption will not be tolerated and anyone guilty of robbing public money would be punished. But even as these aspirations are expressed Prime Minister Gilani and his team are, it seems, determined to help the corrupt escape penalty.

It is true we have come to accept wrongdoing in public office as a fact of life. But this is something that needs to change. The revelations regarding the role of the prime minister in all this are especially shocking. He has apparently played a key part in protecting those accused of theft at the PSM and removing those who exposed them. We are led by men who have, it seems, no integrity and no sense of morality. They resort time and again to rhetoric promising action against the corrupt but mean nothing of what they say. This is frightening. Pakistan today faces all kinds of problems. These can be solved only by those ready to demonstrate commitment and character. This cannot come from those bent on saving those who rob the country or indeed who do so themselves. Such people cannot be expected to devote their energies to solving the problems of people. Indeed, it is corruption that has through the years contributed greatly to the mess we find ourselves in. We will be able to shake it off only if we find a way to genuinely combat corruption wherever it exists and remove those guilty in any way of promoting it.


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Official misogyny

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

In a bizarre bid to preserve law and order, the Peshawar district administration has barred property dealers and housing unit owners from renting out premises to women living alone. This action comes in response to the murder of 26 women residing in flats or other premises on their own during 2009 and the first month of the current year. The orders suggest these unfortunate women perhaps intended to get killed and thus create problems for the authorities. It is truly sad that those responsible for protecting the lives of citizens should be reacting in so obscurantist a manner. This measure simply promotes extremist ideas and indeed violates the Constitution by treating one group of citizens as inferior than others.

We have through the years seen a failure to improve the status of women in society. Official steps which act to impose new restrictions on them exacerbate their problems and promote the myth that it is indeed women who are themselves responsible for crimes committed against them. This argument has in the past been used to justify rape, molestation and harassment. The fact is that women's right to movement, to earn an income and to exist independently must be defended. The issue of safe housing for single women, even in large cities, has had a negative impact on these freedoms. It is also a fact that in the hard times we live in today more and more women need to support themselves. They must be facilitated rather than hampered in this. The district administration in Peshawar needs to apprehend those murdering women rather than punishing the victims. It would also be advised to consider measures that can make women safer – instead of infringing on their liberties and thus further marginalising them in society.

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Deadly tracks

Thursday, January 14, 2010

The accident at a railway crossing in Mian Channu in which at least twelve children and their coach driver died and at least eight others were injured is heart-rending. The prime minister and the president have expressed their condolences and called for the four provincial governments and railway officials to 'ensure the safety of vehicles near railway tracks' and have asked for 'the immediate construction of railway gates and crossings at train tracks for the life protection of the public.' Fine words overlaying a dismal reality of a railway infrastructure that is underfunded, badly maintained and managed by a succession of incompetents who wouldn't know one end of a train from the other. The impression of reality being disconnected from management is accentuated by the federal railways minister, Ghulam Ahmed, saying that the construction of gates is not the responsibility of railways; and that provincial governments and district managers should construct underpasses or flyovers at each point. He revealed that each gate costs a staggering 4.8 million rupees – they are presumably gold-plated and built by workers paid in US dollars at the rate of $100 per day – and that it is 'difficult' to construct a gate at each point. We urge the minister to review both his advice on costings and the possible cost of building over 2,000 underpasses and flyovers.

With that many unmanned, unfenced and ungated railway crossings in the country their upgrading to an acceptable standard of public safety is not likely to be high on the agenda of local railway managers; who have tiny budgets for peripherals such as the welfare of those who cross rather than use, the tracks. As ever in these tragedies there is a pointing of fingers – at both the bus and the train driver. The train driver must be exempt from all blame – he was travelling at speed in foggy conditions with visibility not more than 700 metres, and would have had no chance to stop the train in time once he saw the school bus. The bus driver would not have seen the train until the last moment, nor heard it either as fog acts as an acoustic dampener and his chances would have been as slim as the train driver's. The hard fact is that nobody would have died had the crossing been properly regulated – and ultimately that is the fault and responsibility of the government and the railway operator and not the train or bus driver. Yet another needless waste of innocent life, and yet another railways minister who gives every sign of being unable to find his own nose without both hands and a map.


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From within

Thursday, January 14, 2010

The policies adopted by the government and the small group of henchmen who run its affairs are becoming increasingly intolerable for anyone with any measure of rationality or morality. Reaction has come recently from within the party, with senior PPP leader Senator Raza Rabbani demanding during a debate in the Upper House that the Charter of Democracy be enforced and some effort made to offer people the necessities of life as per the manifesto of the party. Senator Rabbani also led a walk-out against the operation in Lyari. There are important questions to be asked here. How long will it be before the PPP leadership begins to see sense? Is it indeed capable of any kind of lucid thinking – or has it completely lost this ability? What Mr Rabbani and others like him say makes sense. It is impossible to continue to rely on mere rhetoric. Even now, despite renewed promises from the prime minister and the president, there is no definite sign of a move to end the 17th Amendment. One wonders why the matter is not moved in parliament, despite what we have all heard about its supremacy and the need to make it sovereign.

The credibility of the PPP is at an all-time low. We wonder how much further it can sink. What is sad is that even now those at the helm of party affairs do not seem to have grasped the full gravity of the situation. There is no sense at all that the crisis we face is being managed adeptly or even with good sense. This of course will, in time, make matters worse. It is essential that more people speak up from within the party. After all its standing in the eyes of people must be enhanced. The leaders who have served the party in the past need to make a bid to save it. Presently it stands poised on the brink of self-destruction. The PPP must be pulled back from this precipice. We must also hope that those running its affairs will show some willingness to listen to voices of reason. Sadly they have failed to pay much heed to the criticism directed this way or to try and adopt any kind of policy reform. They may now be approaching their last chance to do so. Mr Rabbani's words indicate impatience with what is happening is growing rapidly as things worsen on multiple fronts with each passing day.


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Yet more misery

Thursday, January 14, 2010

The price of sugar is up at utility stores by a whopping Rs7 per kilo. The slight relief available to people buying the commodity at these stores has vanished. Sugar prices have in fact also risen at other shops, as retailers move in to extract all possible profit from the government announcement as to the price rise. The statement from the finance minister that the step has been taken to cut the difference between the rate of sugar sold at different places makes little sense, given the suffering it has imposed on people who, during the first two weeks of 2010, have already seen an increase in the prices of power, gas and flour.

The situation is a dire one. In every household budgets are increasingly strained. Sugar is an essential item that few can do without. The issue of keeping households running in these circumstances is becoming an ever-bigger one. There are simply no answers for most of the families who struggle to survive and to make ends meet one way or the other. The decision on sugar prices by the ECC also proves the government is oblivious to the plight of people. Its primary duty must, after all, be to protect their interests. This is not happening. Already, on Wednesday, as consumers discovered the price rise, a greater sense of despondency was visible in many places. There seems every possibility that it will grow as the full impact of the latest price rise hits people already struggling to cope with the increased hardships of life.

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