Thursday, March 20, 2014

Will it ever begin?

The endlessly protracted local government elections saga may finally have reached its conclusion as the Supreme Court ordered the Punjab and Sindh governments to hold the polls before November 15. One deadline after the other had passed since the new governments were sworn in, yet they kept finding reasons to delay fulfilling their constitutional duty, to the exasperation of the Supreme Court. Finally, as charges of impropriety and favouritism began to pour in as the process of delimitation got underway, and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) pleaded that it did not have sufficient time to print ballot papers, a delay was reluctantly granted. Now, the November 15 deadline must be treated as sacrosanct. This will require not only for the provinces to pass the requisite legislation to hold local bodies elections but for the ECP to get its act together. The Supreme Court has decreed that delimitation and the holding of the polls must be carried out by the ECP, a body that is still without a chief election commissioner many months after the previous officeholder Fakhruddin Ebrahim resigned. There had been speculation that former Supreme Court justice Rana Bhagwandas would be appointed but that idea seems to now have been shelved. With a void at the ECP, there is every possibility that political influence will be brought to bear in ensuring the ‘correct’ outcome in the polls.

Many of the mistakes made in the general elections will have to be avoided. The ink used, for example, was not of a high enough quality for Nadra to determine the veracity of fingerprints on many ballots. Since fingerprint identification is anyway considered a scientifically unsound method, better ways need to be devised for insuring the integrity of the balloting. Delays in providing ballot papers at polling stations turned into a major problem in the general elections and since local bodies elections will require the printing of even more ballot papers this is a task the ECP should start as soon as possible. The reason the local bodies polls have needed to be delayed so many times is that on each occasion where the Supreme Court set a date the provinces and the ECP would choose to argue against the date rather than get to the work of holding elections. A process which should have been complete by now thus hasn’t moved forward at all. The end result is that citizens in Sindh and Punjab are left without the representatives who should be most responsive to their needs.

Paper Rangers

Sufficient time has passed since the law-enforcement authorities in Karachi were given the go-ahead to begin an operation for their effectiveness to be judged. The verdict is damning. They have found to be wanting in their ability to take on the politically-connected criminal elements that have made the metropolis a hub of extortion, criminality and murder. In the wake of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit to the city, perhaps sensing that his own performance would be under review, Director General Rangers Sindh Major General Rizwan Akhtar has decided to go on the offensive. He complained that the extra powers given to the paramilitary force, making it the leading agency in the operations, existed only on paper and did not translate into additional authority on the ground. His main issue was with the fact that the Rangers only had the ability to search and arrest suspected criminals but that only the police could detain them. For Akhtar to see this as an issue shows just how little coordination and trust exists between the law-enforcement agencies. Certainly it is true that the police is hopelessly politicised and often ends up letting criminals go but the Rangers have so far arrested thousands of people with no discernible impact on violence in the city. Many of these people will be freed because they have been picked up without cause by an agency that wants to pump up its arrest numbers to act as if it is blameless for the failure to restore law and order in Karachi.

The Rangers, as the history of operations in Karachi shows, have rarely been a stabilising force in the city. Ideally, a paramilitary organisation with no roots in the city would not be needed as the police itself would be sufficient to keep the peace. That, as everyone is all too aware, has not been the case. Now that the ban on recruiting more officers has been lifted and the home department plans to hire as many as 10,000 more officers perhaps the Rangers can gradually be phased out. That will only happen if at least some of the complaints voiced by DG Akhtar are heeded. He is correct in saying that the authorities – and this includes the police – have provided patronage to every criminal element in the city, from the land mafia to target killers. The new recruits, along with the compromised elements already present in the police, will have to be depoliticised before Karachi can ever become a properly functioning city again.

Jirga murders

Despite the fact that the Supreme Court has banned extra-judicial tribunals including village jirgas and tough laws against ‘honour’ killings have been passed by parliament, these practices continue. A jirga of the Mahar tribe which met in the town of Wazirabad in Shikarpur had ‘approved’ and had the killing of two young women from the clan carried out, because they had ‘illicit’ relations with two men from the Jagirani tribe. That tribe was fined by the same jirga for ‘abducting’ the women.

What seems like a chain of events snipped out from history books telling tales of medieval times was made possible to a large degree because the jirga was attended, and reportedly presided over, by Ghous Baksh Mahar, an MNA for the PML-Functional. The party commands considerable clout in the area, and there can be little doubt that the MNA’s presence would have dampened any attempts by the local administration or police to act, even if we assume they had intended to. It is good news that the chief justice of Pakistan on Wednesday took notice of the horrific happening, and summoned the IG Police for Sindh to appear in court. His actions will not restore to life two young women but it demonstrates at least some concern and a willingness to intervene. We hope the ‘lawmaker’ concerned will be questioned and brought to justice and so will others involved in the murders. Still more important is the need to set a precedent, so that others can be deterred from holding similar gatherings and determining who should live and who die.

Moves on the media

Pemra has been ‘called upon’ to suspend, and eventually cancel, the licences of Geo TV. Rules are being used from the Pemra Ordinance pertaining to the “sovereignty, integrity and security” of the country. Precedents are dangerous things. Should any attempt be made to clamp down on Geo TV following the complaint made against its coverage of the issue of the murder attack on senior journalist Hamid Mir and the fingers being pointed in the affair, it would be a particularly damaging blow to our democracy and all that it stands for. Reports are already coming in of Geo’s transmissions having been forcibly shut down in several areas. It should be clear that Geo is not guilty of the ludicrous accusations lodged against it with Pemra. Neither has it outright accused the ISI chief of being guilty in the affair. The freedom of the media is after all essential to any country that claims to run along democratic lines. No institution, no individual, no organisation has any right to intervene in this. Of course the media, as a powerful organ which influences people, must exhibit responsibility in all that it broadcasts and writes. Mistakes in this respect are made from time to time in our country – as they are all over the world. But the issue concerning the wrath of the ISI regarding the accusations it says were made against its chief is one that should never have been taken so far. Such affairs can be sorted out between Pemra and the channel itself. Where necessary, any violation of the Pemra code of conduct can be discussed and laid-down action taken. Going beyond this would be a huge disservice to the nation and its people. In this case, the media is essentially being told that retribution should be expected should certain institutions or individuals from them ever be crossed. The last time power was abused was when Pervez Musharraf shut down news channels that were critical of his imposition of emergency.

A mindset that believes that any criticism of one’s action or any questioning of one’s motives is tantamount to threatening the country only goes to show the excessively high regard some institutions hold themselves in – at the cost of others. True patriotism, borne out of love for country, demands that those who hold power be held accountable and are subject to tough questioning. What is happening now in the form of the threat to Geo TV could affect anyone else, any other media body in the future. Games of one-upmanship must not be played and petty politics abandoned. There were reports that Defence Minister Khwaja Asif was opposed to approaching Pemra. He too has come in for a lot of flak after some of his old speeches surfaced and were played ad nauseum on television. The government should be able to play its role without being intimidated or influenced by any quarters and by standing on the side of what lies within our constitution. The government and the military both need to ensure that they act in the interest of the country and its people as a whole. What we need at this time is good sense, reason and fair play above all else. What is of paramount importance is to defend the freedom of the media and ensure it can function as a means to bring news and opinion of every kind to people. Tolerance for this opinion must increase. A blanking out of screens could only worsen the situation we already face and add to the lack of transparency we already suffer from in a country where too many secrets lurk.

The seventh time

The cycle we have seen since 1988, when democratic rule was re-introduced to the country after an 11-year dictatorship, continues. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which hopped off the governmental merry-go-round in February 2013, just as the tenure of the then PPP government neared its end, has decided to once more hop back on and join the Sindh government. Over the last year there has been harsh acrimony between the MQM and the PPP, centring around the gang warfare in Karachi, the controversial People’s Amn Committee and the law on local government. However, for now all this has been set aside. The MQM has abandoned the opposition benches in the Sindh Assembly and two of its nominees, Dr Saghir Ahmed and Rauf Siddiqi, have taken oath as ministers. The party expects more ministries later on, with portfolios still being discussed. The MQM is said to be vying for the local government ministry but is facing some resistance on that.

This change in the MQM’s status marks the seventh time it has joined a PPP government, and the third time it has linked up with one led by Qaim Ali Shah. How long the alliance is to last this time is difficult to say. It had been anticipated for some days that the move was about to be made, with the MQM complaining over the past few days that its activists had been abducted, killed and arrested in Karachi and that many had been detained under the Protection of Pakistan Ordinance, a law both the PPP and the MQM oppose. The new scenario in Sindh sets up a stronger front against the federal government, and may add to the complications involved in conducting the ongoing operation intended to restore law and order in Sindh. But naturally, there are some positives as well. It is hoped that establishing peace in Karachi will be a priority for the provincial government. Realistically speaking, the task cannot be completed without the cooperation of the MQM, a party that wields enormous influence in Sindh’s urban centres. We hope that cooperation will come. Beyond this the contours of the new alliance, its role in Sindh and the direction it takes will need to be watched. The MQM, after all, is hardly a predictable party. The merry-go-round will no doubt continue to turn, as the new order of things takes shape. Where it will eventually stop or what events will be witnessed as it continues to spin, is not something that is easy to say with Sindh once more seeing a change in its political landscape.

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If you tremble with indignation at every injustice then you are a comrade of mine.(Che Guevara)

Power games

At the ground-breaking ceremony for a coal-based power plant at Port Qasim, Prime Minister Nawaz said that 4000-5000MW of power would be added to the national grid in three years and a total of 21000MW would be added in eight to ten years. The prime minister has also ordered his government to ensure that loadshedding is reduced to six hours a day – which would entail a 100 percent reduction in the current daily duration of loadshedding. While this may show that the PM too is frustrated over our continued energy woes, many will ask if it is possible to do his bidding.

The prime minister has made no attempt to disguise his anger over a situation that is causing widening public disquiet as protests erupt, creating circumstances that could lead to destabilisation. The PM made it clear at the meeting he chaired in Islamabad on Wednesday that he understood games of patience would not be played indefinitely by people driven to near breaking point both by sleepless nights and economic losses. Lashing out at top officials from the ministries of water and power, petroleum and finance, the PM said he did not want lists of figures or promises before the month ended, but real action that could offer people relief. We are also told that a major crackdown is being planned against corrupt officials in the power sector. The Ministry of Water and Power promised to add 1000 MW to the national grid within 24 hours, although it was not explained where this extra power was coming from and why, if it was available, it hadn’t been used so far.

To a considerable degree the very future of Sharif’s government depends on his success in tackling the energy crisis. The PML-N had in its election campaign promised to resolve the power crisis within months. The fact that it has not met with success in this is something that will obviously not be missed by people facing up to 12 or 18 hours of loadshedding daily. While the move can be applauded for its environmental effects, such small measures will add only about 100MW to the national grid. The problem with the government is that so far it hasn’t been able to take the bare minimum steps to ease our suffering while we wait for several projects to be completed. Hours of loadshedding could be greatly reduced if the government took a few simple decisions. Reducing transmission line losses, for example, could save us a lot of wasted electricity without having to actually produce more power. Then there is the fact that many government institutions and private businesses are freeloaders who refuse to pay their electricity bills. Only symbolic steps have been taken to improve bill collection. Public relations moves like cutting off power to the prime minister’s office for a couple of days may earn good press but unless the government follows through and collects all unpaid bills, our circular debt continues to rise. On top of that, the government has taken few steps to crack down on illegal power connections. Add up all the costs of inaction and we will face a brutal summer with electricity as precious a commodity as ever. The promises made by Nawaz Sharif at Port Qasim may or may not materialise but recent history has taught us to be wary. Previous governments have touted everything from independent power producers to rental power projects as the magic bullet. All have floundered in a sea of corruption and inefficiency. This government may be different but we will only believe that once we see it. Until then, for the next few years, it seems like there will be no end to our misery.

Insecure lives

Much has been made of the opportunities and dangers of having a population as young as Pakistan’s. More than one-third of Pakistanis are aged 15 and under while, according to the Election Commission of Pakistan, nearly half the registered voters were between the ages of 18 and 35. This youth bulge was supposed to be a harbinger of prosperity but instead has caused only greater insecurity. As much as we try to analyse where things have gone wrong for our young population, no one can better explain the problems they face than the young people themselves. A recently-launched report by the British Council, titled ‘Next Generation: Insecure Lives, Untold Stories’, interviewed 1800 people between the ages of 18 and 29. The geographical spread reflected the make-up of the country with people from Balochistan, Fata and Gilgit-Baltistan all being represented in the report. Among the fascinating findings was that they saw political rivalry as the most common reason for conflict in their community, above land disputes and domestic violence. The increasingly Talibanised Pakistan of today was also reflected by the presence of honour, ethnic conflict and religious extremism among the top causes of conflict.

As a country we have let down this next generation, which does not have the jobs and security required to survive in the Pakistan of today. According to the report, the top two reasons that the youth turn to violence is to escape from poverty and because they want money. As much as we hear about the political violence and terrorism that plagues this country, we tend to forget that the chief source of violence is still the mass poverty that afflicts us. If this generation is to grow up without trauma and with a measure of security the state will have to specifically cater to it. Small-bore policies like the laptop scheme simply will not cut it when the problems facing the youth of today are so profound. From universal education to job training and social security, the state needs to do a much better job of equipping the next generation with the tools it needs to thrive. The British Council report, in its interviews with the young generation, shows just how much potential lurks within them. But it will never be unleashed until we do better by them.

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If you tremble with indignation at every injustice then you are a comrade of mine.(Che Guevara)

Is there a Khan plan?

At his protest rally at the D Chowk in Islamabad, where few had been allowed in the past to stage a political event, PTI supremo Imran Khan reiterated many of the points he has been repeating over the past few weeks. Long on rhetoric and short on logic, Khan’s speech was disappointing for those still looking for serious political content from the ‘third force’. Clearly, the only art he seems to have picked up from established political traditions is the one of filibustering. Consider his rigging charges – a year after the event. Even if Khan is right about his mandate having been hijacked in the four constituencies he identifies, the four extra seats wouldn’t have propelled him into Khursheed Shah’s seat, let alone the PM’s seat. So what ‘mandate’ is he referring to? Khan’s emphasis on the role of the Election Commission of Pakistan is also puzzling. Yes, the ECP should be transparent and accountable; yes, free and fair elections should be the rule; yes, electoral disputes should be resolved fast. But since Khan doesn’t like the verdict of the ECP, the courts and tribunals and is disappointed with their pace of work, should all these institutions be disbanded? Should every electoral dispute henceforth be sent to the awaam for collective deliberation and adjudication? And who, precisely, are the awaam? The Islamabad-based PTI yuppies or the KP imports? (And can non-PTI, politically active persons qualify as awaam?)

Khan once more accused Jang/Geo of conducting this rigging – even though the channel and other experts have on more than one occasion pointed out it is simply not possible for a media house to manipulate a national election, particularly in the manner he suggests was done. Announcing results at any point after votes are cast cannot alter which symbol is marked on the ballot sheet or the total cast for a particular party. In his attack launched in the manner for which Khan has now become noted, he once again brought up the – false – allegations of foreign funding for various campaigns run by the Jang/Geo Group and suggested this involves them in some kind of conspiracy. The allegations are absurd. After they have been replied to and cleared in the past in courts where the detractors and liars had to apologise, the repetition of these lies borders on a sickness that sane politicians should not suffer from.

The timing of Khan’s speech also merits consideration. His favourite topic – talks with the Taliban – is dangerously close to being eclipsed by “Geo’s … play[ing] with national institutions”; shouldn’t he have focused on need to resume dialogue, especially since KP – the current PTI bastion – is the most affected by the violence? For many years now, Khan has been droning about the drones and the need to stop attacks so that more ‘meaningful’ work can be done. Now that there is a reprieve, what’s the Khan plan? But he didn’t talk about any of these issues. Instead, his adoring supporters of not-the-usual-suspects variety were treated to a lengthy diatribe about Geo using funds from the UK, US and India to further “their” agenda against “national institutions”. Who made Khan the arbiter of who is or isn’t patriotic? And why must anyone – including Jang/Geo – have to prove their patriotism to Khan? Unfortunately, to Imran Khan’s mind, being unpatriotic is like being a blasphemer in modern-day Pakistan: the onus of proving otherwise is on the accused, not the accuser. And the quality of politics in the country is all the poorer for this stance.

Death and despair

The IDPs attempting to return home to Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency were already in despair, having been forced to leave their villages over a year ago. The suicide bombing that killed four of them and wounded at least 11 others no doubt deepens their despair. A suicide bomber, said to be in his early 20s, first engaged Levies guards in gunfire at the registration point in Peshawar’s Shahi Bagh area where the IDPs were receiving Rs25,000 and ration to assist their return and then blew himself up as he made his way towards the registration point where some 300 IDPs were present. The death toll may have been higher had the Levies not continued to fire at him and caused him to detonate his jacket before he reached closer to the IDPs.

Condemnations for the blast, the fourth in five days in KP, have come in from the chief minister of the province and other officials everywhere. But these condemnations will not stop these blasts. Who would target desperate IDPs who have already lost much of what they had? The answer is uncertain; but it is worth remembering that the Tirah IDPs were victimised earlier by the Taliban angered by them for fighting back as they invaded villages in March 2013. The houses of these unfortunate people were razed to the ground by ferocious Taliban fighters. This could be another act of revenge. But that is mere conjecture. Whatever the motive, the fact is that severe misery has been inflicted. The security issues in the KP in particular and our country in general are rising. It is becoming harder for humanitarian agencies to help those in need. How the issues will be solved we do not know. But it is vital we find a way so that the body count across our country falls in number and we can return to some semblance of the peace all of us so badly need.

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If you tremble with indignation at every injustice then you are a comrade of mine.(Che Guevara)

First signs?

Could the end game finally be in sight? Tahirul Qadri has apparently agreed to negotiations with a government team comprising Ahsan Iqbal, Ijazul Haq, Haider Abbas Rizvi and Abdul Qadir Baloch. Simply assenting to talks does not mean that an agreement will be reached but after days of impasse this was the first glimmer of hope that the protests in Islamabad may be entering their twilight. Imran Khan, too, is ready to give an inch but only if he first receives a mile. In a speech no less temperate than his previous flights of fancy, Imran said the PTI had formed a negotiating team but would only talk to the government if Nawaz Sharif resigned. Since the ouster of Nawaz is the reason for this protest he cannot get away with it as an opening gambit. The hope now is that this is the first chink in Imran’s armoury and will lead to further concessions. The rest of his speech did not inspire much hope. He wants a neutral caretaker government to be appointed, which is exactly what happened before last year’s elections. He wants the Election Commission of Pakistan to be chosen based on a consensus, which is exactly what happened before last year’s elections. For Imran, it seems, neutrality can only be ascertained after the fact if he has been given all he wants.

The most dangerous part of Imran’s speech may have been his call for all those involved in rigging – which, remember, is as yet unproven – to be tried for treason under Article 6 of the constitution. Since he has accused the PML-N, the caretaker government, the Supreme Court, the ECP and Jang Group for stealing the election Imran basically wants to convict everyone – other than himself and his supporters of treason. Add to that his call for a boycott of the Jang Group because he has some problem with the owner and one can’t help but wonder what Imran’s true agenda is. Imran has already damaged democracy enough with his march; now he seems intent on inciting attacks against the free media too. The government should keep this in mind while negotiating with the PTI. Its earlier missteps notwithstanding, the PML-N has made a good-faith effort to resolve the situation. For someone who loves peppering his speeches with sporting references, Imran should now realise the ball is in his court.

Assignment cricket

Eight years after quitting in the wake of The Oval fiasco, Shaharyar M. Khan finds himself back in the PCB saddle. In 2003, when his first term as PCB chief began, Shaharyar was handpicked by General (r) Pervez Musharraf and was given the task to revive Pakistan cricket following the controversial tenure of Lt-Gen Tauqir Zia. For his second stint Shaharyar should thank Nawaz Sharif who was instrumental in getting the ex-diplomat ‘elected’ as the new PCB chairman. This time again, Shaharyar’s assignment is to put Pakistan cricket on the right track – quite a Herculean challenge, one must say, in the current circumstances. If things were bad for Pakistan cricket in 2003, they are worse today. Back then, Shaharyar had to clean up the mess left by Zia, who was forced to step down following allegations of nepotism and financial mismanagement in the PCB. Shaharyar did manage to fix things and took a few positive decisions like the appointment of Bob Woolmer as Pakistan’s coach in 2004. But his three-year stint came to an end when Musharraf asked him to step down after Shaharyar was criticised for failing to control his players during The Oval crisis that saw Pakistan becoming the first nation to forfeit a Test in the summer of 2006.

A former foreign secretary, Shaharyar has started his second innings in the PCB as an octogenarian who is expected to achieve mammoth targets like bringing international cricket back to Pakistan and turn an under-achieving national team into world beaters. He has replaced Najam Sethi, the eminent journalist who spent the last one year playing a game of musical chairs with his predecessor Zaka Ashraf due to the courtesy of Islamabad High Court. Shaharyar certainly has the experience as he has served as PCB chairman in the past and has also managed the national team on important tours. His skills as a seasoned diplomat should also come in handy considering that many of Pakistan cricket’s key battles will be fought internationally. But at 80, age is certainly not on his side. Shaharyar will need vast reserves of energy and steely determination to achieve uphill challenges both at home and abroad. Heading the cash-rich PCB is seen as a coveted role in Pakistan but Shaharyar is the first man to have been given a second chance. Will he sink or swim? Perhaps only time will tell.

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"I am still learning."

One step forward and two steps back. The PTI pretended like it might pursue negotiations with the government but one post-midnight meeting was all it took for Imran Khan to retreat. He came out fighting again, varying his targets this time.The US finally weighed in on the protests, with a statement from the embassy asking for peace, negotiations and remaining within the parameters of the constitution. Imran saw this as a thinly-veiled attack on himself and attacked Ambassador Richard Olsen. What he failed to notice is that within the country too most parties oppose the use of mobs to drive out a PM.The National Assembly, in the meanwhile, passed a unanimous resolution in support of the prime minister against any efforts to oust him.

The unverified votes canard is one that needs to be debunked. The reasons many votes could not be verified is because pairing a ballot with the voter’s CNIC did not suffice and his or her fingerprint also needed to be matched. Since fingerprinting is an inexact science at best and ballots will get smudged over time there is no way to verify these ballots using this standard. This is why no democracy in the world other than ours has such a measure for verification. The matter is certainly one to be considered by the parliamentary committee tasked with reforming our elections but it should not be the basis for a mass protest. Imran is in no mood for the subtleties of politics, and some would say, even decency right now, his language becoming increasingly vulgar and hyperbole becoming his main form of address.

Some have observed that Khan is entering a zone of increased isolation with perhaps the government’s patience paying off, as aerial pictures of Islamabad show a thinning crowd around Imran’s container. Yet the PTI chief has to keep outdoing his previous flights of fancy. He may be doing this to keep his protest going but the damage it is doing to the country can be measured in real terms. We hope though that the doors to dialogue have not been locked, with the PAT willing to negotiate and the PTI suggesting it may too accept talks, with opposition leader Khursheed Shah replaced on the panel by the affable Qamar Zaman Kaira from the same party. Dialogue needs to succeed. The bizarre impasse has continued too long, causing a stock market downslide and forcing planned visits by delegations and leaders from overseas to be cancelled. Imran’s rigidity has simply created an increasingly impossible situation – and even now he does not appear to realise this is a game he is unlikely to win – unless he has an agenda that cannot be called ‘political’, Perhaps negotiators can drive home reason. Certainly someone needs to. The senior PTI leadership should too be playing a part, talking to their chief, and bringing in rationality into a situation driven on by blind rage, unproven claims and a free-for-all climate that has created a great deal of political friction. The scars run deep now and will not easily heal.

Sharp setback

The guarded optimism of Narendra Modi’s peace overtures to Pakistan during his inauguration has swiftly been replaced by sad reality. The decision by India to call off foreign secretary-level bilateral talks with Pakistan scheduled in Islamabad delivers a serious blow to the efforts towards normalising ties between the two nations. The planned visit by the Indian foreign secretary with her Pakistani counterpart had been seen as an important step along the road to solving the problems that hold the two countries apart and putting the process that was disrupted in 2008 back on track. Modi’s burst of anger was spurred by the Pakistan high commissioner’s meeting with Shabir Shah of the Democratic Freedom Party in Kashmir. The Pakistani high commissioner had also planned to meet Mirwaiz Umer Farooq. The meeting with the leaders from Kashmir with Pakistan’s top diplomat in India had come under sharp criticism from the opposition in that country. Pakistan has criticised the Indian reaction and held that meetings with the Kashmiri leadership ahead of talks at any level are a routine matter. It seems that hard-line Modi has reacted to the opposition’s attacks and decided to hit hard. However, the BJP prime minister has always been an extreme hawk anyway. He made clear during his visit to Kargil on the Indian Independence Day that democracy and freedom are not what he wants in Kashmir. He, like every other Indian leader, does not want to negotiate with either the Kashmiris or Pakistan over the future of the disputed territory. Unlike others, though, he is not willing to bend even an inch. In fact, he wants to move in the other direction, by doing away with Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which gives Kashmir its special status. The BJP’s hope is that floating this idea will polarise Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir further and allow it to shore up the former’s votes in upcoming elections.

By cancelling the talks, Modi has made clear that the only peace India wants is one in which it gets to dictate terms. It is true after all that Kashmir is central to the issues between Pakistan and India. But right now, it does not seem we are moving anywhere closer to solving this or any other longstanding issues. Without talks, these cannot be solved and India appears not to have much interest in doing so.The core problems of Kashmir and terrorism will remain unsolved when only one side is willing to come to the table. Modi’s intentions had become clear when he complained to US Secretary of State John Kerry about terrorism originating from Pakistan. The aim then is to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. The only negotiations Modi – and India – seems interested in are economic in nature so long as they entail no political concessions. Both PML-N government and the PPP one before it in Pakistan have talked peace and managed to build a political consensus in Pakistan for the pursuit of better ties. Indian short-sightedness will only provide succour to the hawks in Pakistan and weaken peace initiatives.

Published in The News, Friday, August 22, 2014

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"I am still learning."

Enter the man

Good old Asif Ali Zardari has entered the scene as a possible mediator between the government and the marchers. An old hand in warding off one crisis after another, he can certainly be thought of as carrying a bag we can expect a few interesting tricks from. Whether he is, and what those tricks are aimed at producing, must remain a story to be told once it has been lived. For now we know that the PM is due to hold a meeting with Zardari and other key PPP leaders. Unlike Imran, Mian Nawaz Sharif has not attempted to ordain who should form a part of this delegation. Political norm and basic courtesy have been upheld. Khursheed Shah, whom Imran had declined to meet as part of any panel, will be received by the PM along with Aitzaz Ahsan and Raza Rabbani. The meeting could prove important, with the PPP so far having apparently stood against the idea of an elected premier and his government being shown the door through the crude ‘politics’ of the present long-marchers.

There was a glimmer of hope when Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar said the PTI was finally ready to resume talks. With confirmation coming from Shah Mehmood Qureshi and the talks resuming late on Friday, it does look like a new beginning, but Imran Khan was still calling for Nawaz Sharif’s resignation and re-elections. If this remains a precondition for negotiations then the two sides may have little to talk about. Nawaz should not and will not resign as any precondition. The precedent set should that eventuality arise – that a government can be hounded out of power by a crowd – would set us back by years instead of leading us to ‘Naya Pakistan’. Imran’s marching partner Qadri has shown slightly more flexibility and has negotiated with the government without insisting his demands be met first. It is the PTI leader who now needs to take a step back and re-evaluate his position. With Zardari in the fray Imran should be able to do it, notwithstanding the epithets that Imran was once wont to heap on him. It should not be a huge problem for Imran as, despite his uncompromising nature and honesty that much is made of, he has been flexible enough to accommodate those whose glaring presence adorns his container-stage and lends credibility to his ‘Naya’ vision and fiery words.

The PTI has taken another step forward in its present approach when its MNAs finally handed in their resignations. The speaker of the National Assembly will decide whether to accept the resignations on Monday. The PTI will be shut out of parliament for another four years unless it defuses this self-created crisis over the weekend. Or it would be yet another sign that the party exists only to disrupt democracy rather than participate in it. The government, for its part, seemed more determined to end this farce. Chaudhry Nisar went on the offensive and said the police have the right to stop the marchers. He also defended blocking Islamabad with containers, saying he had credible information of an impending terrorist attack. Whether he was entirely truthful cannot be known. If the talk of the terrorist threat is overblown, and it may well be, it will achieve no political purpose. It is about time the government started becoming more pro-active in the real sense. The march madness in Islamabad has gone on for too long and a deal needs to be struck now. And it has to be one that allows the government to complete its term.

Published in The News, August 23rd, 2014

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"I am still learning."

Climb down, Imran

Imran Khan’s idea of a compromise is to reduce his main demand from the resignation of Nawaz to asking him to take ‘leave’ for 30 days as an independent commission investigates allegations of rigging. Ahsan Iqbal confirmed Nawaz would never agree to this and he is correct in doing so. There is no provision in our constitution that allows a duly elected leader to be forced into giving up his post for a pre-determined temporary period. That Imran would resort to such a demand shows that his idea of saving face is eschewed as his idea of change. His devotion is not to the constitution and democracy but to his personal gratification. Suspensions are something given to unruly children at school, not the prime minister of the country. On a day when Asif Zardari went on a personal mission of diplomacy to nearly every political leader in the country, Imran’s only response to his meeting with Nawaz at Raiwind was to mock the supposedly lavish menu. His civil disobedience calls have now led him to ask people to use the hawala and hundi systems instead of normal banking channels. In his quest to unseat the government, Imran wants the rest of the country to emulate the politicians he claims to despise.

So, three rounds of negotiations with the government have ended only in stalemate. Zardari may become the man of the hour for some time. Who would have thought that Zardari, so divisive as president, would emerge as near-statesman in the current mess? His meeting with Nawaz Sharif at Raiwind showed the PPP as a party apparently committed to finding a political solution to a political problem. The PPP’s line has for obvious reasons not gone down very well with Imran Khan. His wrath appears to have multiplied with a vicious lashing of both Nawaz Sharif and Zardari at Imran’s nightly address from his container.At his press conference, Zardari reiterating his support for the government against the demand for Sharif’s resignation, was smart in bringing up the need for unity at a time like this, showing how the protests have been a distraction from far more important issues. The former president jetted around Punjab, meeting Sirajul Haq and the Chaudhry brothers, trying to cobble together a workable consensus. Credit though he deserves for his role as a mediator, it remains to be seen what his efforts lead to. Thanks to political efforts and the vote taken in the National Assembly, we now know that the country’s political representatives do not stand for the idea of unconstitutional departure of the government. This must remain so.

Revolutionary charlatans

With speculation rife and uncertainty everywhere, statements coming from the military calling for sagacity and wisdom from all stakeholders, and for the current political crisis to be sorted out quickly, were interpreted in different ways. Most analysts saw this as a sign that the military wished to stay away from the fray and leave the messed-up affairs of politics to the government. The government itself assured a nervous public that the military was committed to upholding the constitution. Yet, quite a few others sensed in this a kind of warning at a time when every word, every phrase was being dissected and placed under the microscope. Even though there are drastic dissimilarities, some have found the situation reminiscent of the protests by the Pakistan National Alliance against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, which too was spurred by such allegations. We all know the sorry end to that saga. The ISPR statement certainly acted to remind people of such possibilities. This, most likely, is the result of the paranoia that has its roots in our history.

What is not at all difficult to discern is that the two ‘revolutionary’ players at the centre of the drama have been looking very eagerly at such possibilities. Imran and Qadri’s disavowals in this respect do not mean a thing and expose their political bankruptcy. This can be said not only because container-stages can do little on their own and true revolutions do not require concerts to draw in people or shrill threats which cannot be carried out by the ‘revolutionaries’ themselves. It is the whole progression of the two marches in terms of strategic momentum, the language used by their leaders, the composition of their leadership and the ebb and flow of their ‘political’ and ‘non-political’ demands that lead to this inevitable conclusion. We understand that, even as loud whispers by Sheikh Rashid appear to subside, Imran’s heart has been talking to him a lot, saying strange things to him and giving him the date and day for the ultimate success of his endeavour to change, from above, the destiny of the people who need him and, according to himself, are not needed by him. There is only one way he can achieve his desired outcome and that is through extra-constitutional means. Imran and Qadri have backed themselves into a corner and instead of wriggling themselves out of this self-inflicted situation they have kept upping the ante. Both have been calling the duly-elected representatives – other than those from the PTI, of course – cowards because they have not chosen to be the eagles that dared.

People meanwhile seem to be forming their own opinions. Imran and Qadri have alarmed much of the politically conscious section of society. The legal fraternity in particular has strongly condemned the Azadi and Inquilab marches for their unconstitutional aspirations and planned protests of its own. Civil society has appeared ready to voice its frustration with Imran and Qadri’s antics. Many have made it clear they would like normalcy to return. They are convinced that the marchers’ political agendas mean more harm than good. The Pakistan Bar Council and lawyers speaking from other forums have said they will stand with democracy, and if necessary come out on the streets as they did in 2007 to resist unconstitutional measures. Political leaders in parliament have also been speaking out with a strong voice against undemocratic and substitutionist adventures. All this may be seen to strengthen the government and make it more likely that it will succeed in sorting out the mess. But its importance goes beyond this. It is not the love of the government that should turn people against political charlatans who will gladly sacrifice the democratic polity at the altar of impatient ambitions for more power and influence within the status quo. It should be the unflinching realisation that that such retrogressive, anti-change charlatanry is not the answer to the very real problems facing this country. This is where a consensus should emerge. The signs that the possibility for this exists are encouraging.

Published in The News, Sunday, August 24, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Reason and ‘revolution’

A day after government negotiations with the PTI unsurprisingly failed, Nawaz Sharif decided it would be more fruitful to focus on Tahirul Qadri. His apology for the Model Town killings and willingness to file an FIR about the incident show the government’s determination to end this sordid affair in which the government’s earlier lack of remorse and action has had no small role to play. It should have addressed the Model Town incident long ago, not only because this triggered Qadri’s crusade far sooner and made it more forceful, but more importantly because lives were lost in an action whose justification was never established and justice was not seen to be done. At least on that front there may be movement now and some hope of a solution, with the LHC verdict on the case being awaited.Qadri himself appeared more reasonable in his speeches on Sunday, implying that putting the Model Town killings on the agenda made him optimistic about the talks. None of this is to defend Qadri’s actions over the last fortnight. He has been reckless and is a rebel without a case, or indeed, even a clue. However, he has essentially abandoned the elaborate, ‘revolutionary’ agenda he had entered Islamabad with. His focus is now almost solely on the Model Town incident, and while he continues to perch atop his pedestal, it is obvious he is willing to make concessions, even if he presents his talks with Khawaja Saad Rafique or his willingness to talk to the Sharifs as a huge favour to them. In reality he is left with few options. His speech was littered with the kind of religious oratory and bravado that will satisfy his supporters and possibly allow him to call off the march without losing too much face. Whereas Qadri expressed willingness to meet the Sharif brothers, his allies, the Chaudhry brothers, were still vehemently demanding Nawaz’s resignations. But they are relatively unimportant players in this drama who are looking only to become politically relevant again. A satisfactory conclusion to the Model Town case can allow Qadri to forestall divisions among his supporters while claiming victory.

While this apparent pragmatism does not justify all Qadri has done in the weeks before, he is now beginning to look better in comparison to Imran Khan, who wasted another day reciting his familiar litany of complaints. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif probably explained it best when he said that the government had met five of Imran’s six demands and the sixth – calling for Nawaz’s resignation – was a product of the PTI chief’s ego. Even dating back to his cricketing days Imran has always been known for his arrogance but the level of self-obsession seems to have reached new heights. His last three speeches have been peppered with reference to how he will get married only when there’s a Naya Pakistan. The first-person singular pronoun features heavily in his speeches. He is still promoting his warped version of civil disobedience, now extended to asking citizens to take their money out of banks. How causing a run on the banks and leading them to fail will reflect badly on the PML-N rather than Imran himself seems to be lost on the man. He continues to insist, night after night, that he will not give way till the PM goes. There is little possibility that this will happen. When Imran will see this is something no one can say. There is no time fixed for reason sinking in.



The crisis in Ukraine has been going on for nearly a year now and shows no sign of abating. Thousands have been killed, Crimea has been annexed by Russia and fighting continues against pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine. The US, having involved itself in multiple conflicts around the world, has shown no appetite for intervening in Ukraine beyond encouraging sanctions. Into the void has stepped German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who visited the country for the first time this weekend. The trip was symbolically significant since it marked the 75th birth anniversary of Ukraine, a day that was marked by military parades designed to scare off the rebels. Merkel was unable to negotiate a temporary ceasefire but did pledge nearly $700 million in humanitarian aid to the country. She urged the Ukrainians not to assume they could find a military solution to the problem. Like the other EU countries, Germany is hoping sanctions do the trick. The sanctions have certainly hit Russia and the freezing of bank accounts of top Russian officials could help further in deescalating the situation. Additional pressure may come in the form of football. Teams from Crimea are playing in the Russian football league even though the annexation hasn’t been recognised by the UN and hence by football authorities. If Russia is found to be in contravention of regulation it could have the 2018 World Cup snatched away from it. That would be a huge blow to Putin, who had used the Sochi Winter Olympics to show the softer side of his country and wants to do the same with the World Cup.

Separatists in Ukraine, undeterred by shooting down a Malaysian Airlines plane, continue to down military helicopters with two helicopters and a jet struck in the last week alone. Meanwhile, Ukraine is accusing Putin of using aid trucks as a decoy to smuggle in supplies to the rebels. At this point, hope of rapprochement between the two in a face-to-face meeting seems impossible so outside diplomacy will become necessary. Barack Obama is not trusted by either side and US leverage is virtually non-existent so the EU will have to step up. It has hinted at invoking the Nato pact to defend all member states but Putin knows that any threats of war are a bluff against a country as powerful as Russia. Containment, through sanctions, is the only viable option since Russia needs exports to keep its economy going more than Europe needs its imports. This will take patience, an attribute in short supply with so many civilians being killed, but the alternatives are far scarier.

Published in The News, Monday, August 25, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Enter the stooge

Into the fray enters Afzal Khan. The former additional secretary of the Election Commission of Pakistan inserted himself in the political drama by echoing Imran Khan’s rigging charges, more than a year after the 2013 general elections. Afzal, like Imran, has blamed the PML-N, former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and former chief election commissioner Fakhruddin Ebrahim as being part of the ‘conspiracy’. Afzal’s mudslinging merits only the contempt that mischief committed by pigmies without any conscience and character deserve and, as was an absolute certainty, the man’s lack of these traits sent Imran and Tahirul Qadri – the champions of Naya and Inquilabi Pakistan – into obscene raptures. But there are questions to be raised about the obvious stooge’s associations. Afzal had been photographed with his children at the march and with Imran Khan, and his pointing to former justice Riaz Kayani as a prime culprit in this alleged rigging may also have been motivated by the fact that Kayani refused to give him an extension at the ECP. But what may be most noteworthy as an indicator of what this man is a product of is his inclusion of Geo and its chief executive in this supposed rigging. The campaign against Geo started immediately after the murder attempt on Hamid Mir and with both Imran and Afzal joining the vendetta one wonders whose script they are reading. Imran has prepared the ground for, and chosen to be a player in, a very dirty game. His latest ally in it is Afzal Khan.

Imran has exposed himself as exactly the kind of politician he pretends so shamelessly to despise – someone who will say one thing for public consumption and then retreat whenever he faces potential trouble. His reply to Iftikhar Chaudhry’s defamation suit showed the cornered tiger become a docile cat. He apologised that his words were misconstrued and he did not mean to offend the former chief justice. He blamed his rhetoric on the nature of public rallies and sought to distance himself from every accusation he has levelled against Chaudhry. Away from the court, atop his container, Imran returned to maligning the former chief justice. From grovelling to defiant on the same day, Imran’s schizophrenic U-turns mean he no longer has any moral authority. The few specifics he has given about rigging hold little weight. He, and Afzal, now complain that judges were allowed to serve as returning officers even though it was Imran himself who asked for that since he didn’t trust government officials. Yet he continues with his protest and shows no signs of stopping. And now that the PML-N has taken out counter-rallies in Lahore, and may soon make their way to Islamabad, the potential for violence has risen. Qadri has backed away from all compromise and given the government yet another deadline – this time of 48 hours. We have heard this many times before and so may no longer be inclined to believe it, but still the next couple of days could be crucial.

Mob violence

When mobs gather, there is always the risk of violence – and at the PTI gathering in Islamabad, the media seems to have become a favourite victim. After several incidents in the past – at least two of them involving Geo TV teams – in which reporters or cameramen were manhandled, with a female reporter among those targeted, on Monday the crowd turned on an Aaj TV cameraman, who was attempting to do his job by covering the event. The unfortunate individual was badly beaten and had to be taken to hospital for treatment. It is not quite clear what incited the mob to lash out at him as they did, but clearly things are out of control and taking an increasingly dangerous direction. It seems likely the PTI chief’s harsh language, much of it directed against Geo TV and the media house associated with it may be a factor in the attacks on media professionals.

It is important to gain a hold on things. They cannot continue like this. Media professionals out in the field have no agenda; they play no part in policy decisions – but as those reporting from the ground they face the greatest risks simply for performing the duties they are paid for. In the past cameramen have died in bomb blasts and reporters have been shot dead; and it seems the environment for them is becoming even more bleak. Attacks such those on Aaj and Geo personnel simply add an unwanted facet of danger to the work of media professionals. Pakistan has already been declared the most dangerous country in the world for journalists by international monitoring bodies, and it seems things are getting worse. We must protect media professionals out in the field. The government needs to take action for this; so do all political parties and players as well as media groups. There have been too many incidents in which journalists and media persons have been attacked for no reason at all. Their presence is necessary to bring news out to people, and the right to information is one that belongs to all of us. We must not allow anyone to deny us this right.

Published in The News, Tuesday, August 26, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."