Arab Spring in Pakistan?

mano g · #1 Friday, November 18, 2011

The winds of change which arose in Tunisia following the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in a small village on December 17, 2010, and which have since then swept through many countries in the Arab world, may finally arrive in Pakistan.

The most important aspect of the Arab Spring is “hope”. Hope can, in fact be the other name of this movement which has reinvigorated millions of hearts which had experienced nothing but despair for decades – that same dark despair which Pakistanis have experienced at least since the overthrow of Nawaz Sharif’s government by a man whose name will always be linked to the darkest chapter in Pakistan’s history because he not only destroyed institutions, he brought to Pakistan unprecedented violence and despair.

Since that dark day of October 12, 1999, when Nawaz Sharif committed the greatest blunder of his life through his ill-planned and poorly executed order to replace General Musharraf with the Inter-Services Intelligence Director-General Lieutenant-General Ziauddin Butt while Musharraf was en route from Sri Lanka to Karachi, Pakistanis have seen nothing but despair.

Sharif, who was deposed by Musharraf, cannot be held responsible for the action of Pakistan’s last military dictator, but his incompetence was certainly proven beyond doubt by his poorly planned move.

Musharraf’s illegal rule saw some of the most extraordinary events in Pakistan’s history: one man’s will ruling over all institutions, including the supreme judiciary, the capitulation of a nuclear state to the United States of America, the emergence of violence at a scale unknown to Pakistan until then, and the extraordinary involvement of military in all spheres of national life.

When Musharraf was forced out on August 18, 2008, he left behind a dysfunctional parliament and senate and a political vacuum created by the lack of growth of Pakistan’s political parties. Instead of fresh faces entering the political arena after a decade of hopelessness, the farce of general elections held in February 2008 merely brought back old, corrupt, and incompetent bodies without much between their ears.

Instead of hope of a change, the new political order brought back more corruption, more incompetence, and more violence and, most of all, an accidental president, who has since then focused on nothing but consolidation of his own power and wealth. In many areas of national life, Zardari and his colleagues have continued the policies of the military dictator. They have created a culture of despair and doom.

What has contributed most to the lingering of despair is the absence of choice: there was no third political force in Pakistan until recently and the two main parties are filled with old and tiring faces; they have been tried more than once and they had utterly failed. It is in this background that the recent quantum change in Pakistan’s political landscape becomes significant. The hopelessness is vanishing through the almost sudden “rediscovery” of Imran Khan’s voice of hope and change. In many ways, this can be called the Pakistani version of the Arab Spring.

Of course, there are many differences between Pakistan’s political climate and the suffocating authoritarianism of the Arab states where winds of change have blown during the past year, but the current situation in Pakistan resembles the political currents sweeping through the Arab world in that it is able to generate a sense of hope in the masses.

There was no hope left in Pakistan for any change because both mainstream political parties have become personal fiefdoms, and, therefore, what Imran Khan brought to the surface is not merely a third party or third force, but a different possibility, a different paradigm. How would this possibility change actual ground realities remains to be seen. The spread of a new political culture will take its time, but the fact that there is a possibility that Pakistan’s new generation can live in hope, rather than despair, is worth attention.

Everywhere, people are sick and tired of the existing political and economic order. This global discontent has yet to gain enough momentum to produce visible change, but movements such as “Occupy Wall Street” and its various offshoots are certainly indicative of a global discontent with the existing order.

This discontent is not of the same kind as that of 1960s, but it is certainly a growing force and Pakistanis may find solace and strength in it. In order to make something out of this vague spirit, they need a new leadership. Imran Khan offers that possibility. In many ways, there has been no new political current in Pakistan since the late 1960s when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto produced the greatest change in the political landscape. Since then, it has been a retrograde process, marred by military interventions. Now, that phase can be buried and a new process can be started. The modus operandi of this new process remains unclear, but fair elections is certainly the most obvious start.

Elections are not due until February 2013. Between now and then, there is just enough time for the new political force to gather strength and – more importantly – depth. Imran Khan and his team need to cultivate political consciousness in the new generation in such a way that he or a handful of other leaders do not become replicas of the current political icons; they need to focus on political process and institutions rather than personality cults and they need to nurture a new culture of politics in Pakistan’s otherwise sordid climate.

mano g · #2 Friday, November 18, 2011

While much attention has been focused on political tsunamis and realignments, a crisis has been brewing in Islamabad. The matter of the so-called memo allegedly sent on behest of President Zardari to Admiral Mullen is reaching a climax of sorts.

The whistle blower is one Mansoor ijaz, not the most trustworthy of interlocutors, who once absurdly claimed to be a major player in solving the Kashmir dispute. His conceits too are painful, claiming in one TV programme not to understand Urdu, though his parents migrated from Pakistan, and thrusting his American citizenship like a dagger in the anchors face.

Yet the BlackBerry phone messages he has come up with are a damning piece of evidence. The high level Pakistani diplomat communicating with him is alleged to be none other than our ambassador in the US, Hussain Haqqani. This has blown open a can of worms and there will be consequences.

Haqqani has been summoned back to Islamabad or, as he asserts, invited for consultation and the betting is that he is unlikely to survive in his current position. Some are even saying that he is the designated fall guy, meaning that he will take the punishment for someone else’s sins. But, will it stop there?

There are many aspects to this strange story that are decidedly absurd. If the person who instigated this memo is indeed President Zardari, what made him come to the conclusion after the Osama episode that the army is getting ready to oust him?

If anything, the armed forces were then on the backfoot, with many questions being raised about the American operation. The nation was in shock, with the international community bearing down on Pakistan, and the army leadership was preoccupied with handling the military fallout. What could possibly make the president or anyone else even begin to think that another takeover is in the offing?

Okay, if this bizarre thought indeed entered Mr Zardari’s head, what made him conclude that the American military has any clout left to pressurise or prevail upon General Kayani in any matter let alone something as momentous as a possible takeover? It is obvious that relations between the two militaries had plummeted after the Osama operation and only now are beginning to recover a bit.

The lack of foresight does not end here. After the decision was allegedly made to approach the American military, why was such an odd route chosen? Haqqani, who is now an old Washington hand, presumably has a number of contacts in the think tank community that includes retired ambassadors, generals and such like who are used to keeping secrets. Couldn’t he have approached any of them?

He, instead allegedly, and this again is weird to say the least, decided to link up with Mansoor ijaz, a man as I said earlier, with a decidedly dodgy reputation. The only explanation can be the one that has been given, that it was for the reason of plausible deniability.

On this, there cannot be too many caveats; it is hard to believe anything that Mansoor ijaz says. On this count though he has been proven right as Admiral Mullen has now acknowledged the receipt of the memo. What is worse, Haqqani allegedly goes on to leave a huge mobile phone trail. What kind of deniability is possible when evidence in the form of phone numbers is there for all to see? I have known Haqqani for a number of years and the one word I would not use for him is stupid but then....

Then the message itself, which was presumably dictated to form a memo, is absurd in a sinister fashion. I haven’t seen it but reports are that it pandered to every American wish, including compromising the nuclear programme, if only the Pakistan Army was stopped from taking over. It did not stop here but also talked about changing the army and the ISI leadership.

Unless the honourable president and his partners in this venture took leave of their senses, they should have realised that they were in no position to compromise core Pakistani national interests. Even the most draconian of dictatorships can’t do it, let alone a weak civil government.

On the question of attempting to remove the top army leadership, just our recent history is enough of a guide. While the military is ready to take direction from the government on a number of issues, it has a red line and that is, no interference in its command structure. How could anyone believe that he would be able to carry such a venture through?

But then, wasn’t it the Greeks who said centuries ago that those that the Gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. If the initiative for this memo business started with the president, and to be fair there is no conclusive evidence on this, he must have been in a state of panic making him lose his customary cool and catlike calculation.

Now the million-dollar question is what happens next. Into the loop of this peculiar story have come in Prime Minister Gilani and the American Ambassador. Gilani’s intervention is understandable because he is good at playing the role of a mediator, but what is Munter’s role? Is he debunking the whole story or helping to cool temperatures down?

Whatever the parleys some heads will roll and it seems that Haqqani at the very least, will get the boot. (The latest news is that he has decided to resign) If some evidence does emerge that President Zardari had a hand in the whole episode, his position too becomes precarious.

As someone said, that military will not intervene but a Kakar like situation could emerge. This refers to the army commander who forced the president and the prime minister to resign in 1993. More likely though is that tempers will cool down, after Haqqanis head is presented on a plate.

It may be too early to draw conclusions because the story is still unfolding. But one thing is clear. Any kind of sneak attacks in our particular situation never leads to anything good. This government tried to stealthily bring the ISI under the interior ministry and had to retreat in haste. Nawaz Sharif chose to sack the army chief while he was in the air and paid the price.

We need to strengthen institutions and work through systems. That is the best guarantee for the stability of democracy and for the longevity of any particular government. Policy changes should be debated in the parliament and have its sanction. Personnel changes should not be abrupt but according to service norms.

In short, governments that emerge through elections should strengthen democratic norms and should not imagine that since they have legitimacy they can get their every whim fulfilled. Democratic stability can only come through rigorous adherence to rule of law.

It may be frustrating not to get one’s way in everything, but it is this check of the laws’ supremacy that ensures the survival of democracy. This is a lesson all Pakistani politicians need to learn.

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Arain007 (Friday, November 18, 2011), engr_vilayat (Saturday, January 14, 2012), Faisal86 (Friday, November 18, 2011), shallowwater (Friday, November 18, 2011)

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to mano g For This Useful Post:
engr_vilayat (Saturday, January 14, 2012), Faisal86 (Friday, November 18, 2011), shallowwater (Friday, November 18, 2011)