PPP feces electoral debacle

Notwithstanding a successful appeal in the Supreme Court, former prime minister Raja Pervez Ashraf has no chance to participate in May 11 elections. It is a big setback to Pakistan People’s Party. The development cannot be seen in isolation. Several other potential party candidates have been thrown out of the election process by returning officers and appellate tribunals. The party’s first prime minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani is also out of the race after his disqualification by the Supreme Court in a contempt case for not writing to Swiss authorities about President Asif Ali Zardari’s ‘bank accounts’ in Switzerland. And above all, young Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the PPP chairperson, left the election race even before it began. All these factors have combined to grip the PPP in a fear that it might see the party facing one of its worst debacles in elections which are a little more than three weeks away. No pun intended but many, including workers, are asking: Is the party over for People’s Party after 43 years of its inception? Even if it is not, it requires a major operation to remain on political horizon as a major player in the country’s politics.

What appears imminent is that the PPP would be so relegated in the elections as to find it difficult even to be part of a coalition government. All this has happened because the party has lost its identity as the organization of the masses. So much so that it has alienated itself from its enthusiastic workers and become yet another party which is playing power politics. Gone are the days when its workers used to burn themselves alive to save their founding chairperson, the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who showed charisma in his leadership to mobilize the people to fight against the present exploitative system, go to jails and gallows and be reckoned as the most courageous workers any party had in south Asia. His daughter, the late Benazir Bhutto, also proved herself to be a true leader who had the qualities of a fearless fighter. She led from the front and pulled tens of thousands of people to her rallies. She was so brave that she dared death embraced it but never flinched from leading the masses on the right path. On her return she was returning leading a huge rally after addressing a mammoth public when she was attacked. The attack also left hundred of PPP workers dead. Her son, who will turn 26 in September this year, is also acceptable to the PPP workers and no wonder that he would become the youngest member of the National Assembly soon after attaining required age. But the workers seem in no mood to acknowledge anyone else, especially a non-Bhutto, as their leader.

For all practical purposes, the PPP seems nowhere in the coming elections. The party will only have to think past the upcoming elections and far into the future and will have to undertake a big exercise to bring back dedicated workers it has lost and then mobilize them to go to the people with a clarion call that the party continues to be custodian of the programme, agenda and manifesto set by the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his illustrious daughter, the tigress of Pakistan’s politics. That the PPP’s revolutionary message is missing, is the biggest loss it has ever suffered. The party, with Sindh continuing as its stronghold, can achieve the target once Bilawal holds the sway. Subsequent reorganization of the party will also be a big challenge. The party will have to rely for party jobs on old guards rather than opportunity seekers who are now found in the rank and file in abundance and they include the big names who have changed loyalty on all opportune moments. The reorganization process will not be complete without establishing primary units all over the country. This course of political action was started when the PPP was founded on November 30, 1969. But with the passage of the time, they disappeared and many key office-holders in the past focused on constituencies alone to reorganize the party only to win elections without the support of primary units.

Another must-do should be charging every member with a prescribed monthly subscription to give the sense of participation to all party workers from top to bottom. Thus the PPP will establish a party fund that will save them from the embarrassment of asking for funds from the influential people. A party fund is the pre-requisite for the internal strength of political parties across the world, but unfortunately this important aspect is ignored in Pakistan’s political milieu.

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Balochistan has 14 general seats in the National Assembly and 51 general seats in the Provincial Assembly. There are additional seats reserved for women and non-Muslims. They can contest for general seats as well. Much interest is being shown in the elections in Balochistan. The caretaker prime minister, who hails from Balochistan, visited Quetta to assure the political parties of peaceful and fair general election with additional security during the election period. The Army Chief also visited Quetta to underline the Army’s interest in peaceful and orderly election.

The politics in Balochistan is fragmented because of diversified competing interests. These include province-based political parties and their factions, nationwide political parties, religious parties and sectarian groups, and powerful tribal chiefs and other influential people. The active role of the federal government and especially the security and intelligence apparatus also influence the political process in Balochistan.

Three province-based political parties had boycotted the February 2008 general elections. These were Balochistan National Party-Mengal Group (BNP-M) led by Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the National Party (NP) led by Dr Abdul Hayee Baloch (it took part in the March 2009 Senate elections), and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party led by Mahmood Khan Achakzai.

These political parties are taking part in the May 2013 elections. Other province-based political parties taking part in the elections are BNP (Awami), Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazlur Rahman (JUI-F), and JUI-Ideological. Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) faced internal rift after the death of its leader Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006. It is has gone in three directions: JWP-Talal Bugti group (quite active), JWP-Aali Bugti (nominally active) and JWP-Baramadagh Bugti. The last of the three JWP groups functions as a separatist party from abroad under the title of Baloch Republican Party.

The nationwide parties active in Balochistan include the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif (PML-N), the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q) , the Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI). All of them are putting up candidates and some of them are seeking seat adjustments with the political parties of their choice. This strategy does not appear to be working in Balochistan in any significant manner. These parties will be contesting elections against each other. Some independent candidates are also contesting.

The biggest challenge to elections in Balochistan is disorder and violence that has become endemic. The separatist groups based outside of Pakistan resort to violence from time to time and they have threatened to disrupt the elections. Their activists are expected to resort to armed attacks on the candidates and leaders of the parties contesting the election. Religious-sectarian and ethnic violence also exists in Balochistan. The political parties, especially the BNP-M and the NP are raising the issue of the missing persons. A good number of them have been traced and returned but still the issue is not fully resolved. There is a difference on the number of missing persons as given by the political groups and the official circles. The political circles place the main blame on the state intelligence agencies, especially the ISI, for disappearance of people. The BNP-M also raises the issue of discovery of dead bodies in various parts of Balochistan and holds the ISI or what it describes as the gangs of tough people that enjoyed the blessings of the intelligence establishment.

The official circles deny any involvement in kidnapping of people but this does not change the views of the political circles in Balochistan who continue to take a strong exception to the conduct of security and intelligence agencies in Balochistan. The echo of these sentiments can be heard repeatedly in the election campaign. The political parties and leaders are also talking about socio-economic development issues in their constituencies, jobs, how to ensure good governance and the relationship between the federal government and the province in administrative and financial domains. Some parties are also touching on the benefits of major development projects to the people of the province.

Violence or threat thereof is adversely affecting election campaign in Kbyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi which are experiencing target killings and terrorist attacks almost on daily basis. The security agencies are now taking action against criminals and others engaged in violence in Karachi but they have to keep such a pressure on them so as to ensure relatively peaceful elections.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban-i-Pakistan (TTP) has declared the elections to be un-Islamic and threatened to use violence against the PPP, the ANP and the MQM. The defiant posture of the TTP has an impact on electioneering in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and some districts adjoining these areas. Even in the province of Kbyber Pakhtunkhwa, the ANP and the PPP are curtailed in their political activities due to the Taliban threat. The ANP has lost more activists in terrorist attacks than any other political party over the last two years.

The Qaumi Watan Party of Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherapo (limited to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) also faces the threat of the TTP. He survived two attacks in the past. Asfandyar Wali Khan, the chief of the ANP, also survived a suicide attack in the past. Extra-ordinary caution is being used for Bilawal Bhutto, the leader of the PPP. His is not expected to make frequent public appearances.

In the Tribal areas, the candidates are contesting independently or are linked with Islamic parties. The Taliban policy towards the elections is helping the JUI-F and the Jamaat-i-Islami. Many political activists belonging to the ANP and the PPP in some districts adjoining North and South Waziristan have joined the JUI-F for security reasons. No candidate in the tribal areas can afford to alienate the local militants and the TTP.

In Karachi, the ANP is finding itself under pressure from the TTP. The MQM candidates face the TTP threat in urban Sindh. The first death of a candidate took place in Hyderabad on April 11 when an MQM contestant was killed by the TTP. The exclusively election related violence included bombing of a candidate’s election office in Miramshah, North Waziristan, a bomb defused outside a JUIF candidate office in Swabi (KP), two bomb attacks on the ANP candidates on April 14, injuring one in Charsadda (KP) and killing one in Swat.

The armed groups and criminals want to disrupt the election process, at least in some areas. If some major terrorist incident takes place or some top leader is assassinated close to the voting date, it will be difficult to hold elections on May 11.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.

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April 17, 2013

President Asif Ali Zardari has called upon the people from Fata to participate in the coming general elections with enthusiasm and vigour. He was addressing a grand tribal jirga at the Presidency on Monday. Making an obvious reference to terrorism, a scourge that seems to be hiding behind every bush in the country, more particularly in the tribal region, he told them that death was inevitable and that there was no point in fearing it. Therefore, he implied, it ought not to deter them from casting their ballot. He talked of the sacrifices that Benazir Bhutto and others in the PPP had made in the cause of democracy. President Zardari said that after the restoration of the democratic order in the country i.e. during the past five-years of the party tenure, development works had been carried out in Fata, and there were plans to set up universities, a cadet college and a medical college in the region. The plentiful mineral and other resources lying buried in Fata would also be exploited. These are all nice words and, of course, armed clashes and deaths are not new to them, grown up as they are in the challenging surroundings of the areas’ ethnic rivalries. But the real question is whether the man in the street, introduced to the electoral game for the first time, would feel impelled to cast his vote. He, probably, would provided that he is satisfied with the performance of the government. Besides, the factor of terrorism, a genre of its own in its sudden appearance and in its consequence of death and destruction, has to be taken into the equation. And true to the warning of TTP’s Hakimullah Mehsud, there has been a sharp escalation in acts of terrorism.

Not only is the PPP leadership actively trying to win over the electorate, but so are leaders of all other parties on their toes, announcing what they intend doing to improve the lot of the people, if voted to power. Some claims are too tall to achieve; others relatively modest, yet not finding many takers. Jama’at-i-Islami promises end to the power crisis within six months, reduction in the prices of electricity and gas by 30 percent, end to unwarranted taxes on the petroleum products and increase in salaries. JUI-F commits to ending power loadshedding and restoring local body system, and assures that there would be no compromise on the atomic programme and asserts that no party would be able to form government without its participation. Similarly, Pervez Musharraf comes up with the realisation that Kalabagh Dam is inevitable (leaving the voters to wonder what had stopped him from executing the project during his nine-year dictatorial rule), reduction in the electricity and tax rates and an end to terrorism. Imran Khan does not lag behind and says he would restore the local bodies through which development funds would be spent and there would be no direct paying to MPs. The people have been dismayed and frustrated with the so-called democratic system that has been in operation since five years. Only time will tell whether and how enthusiastically they go to the polling stations to vote.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...ons/editorials

Self-criticism is becoming a Pakistani habit. Breaking with tradition, I will begin by complimenting the nation for an achievement, which has not occurred before in my life — the successful completion of a full five-year term by an elected civilian government and the voluntary handing over of the reins of power to an independent caretaker set-up. As icing on the cake, everyone is now willing to submit themselves to public accountability through the election process. When presidents of the US and prime ministers of the UK used to shake hands, accept defeat at elections and welcome their successors, I wondered if I would ever see this happening in my country. Well, it has, so congratulations again. But this dream can only be fully realised if the upcoming elections are transparent and fair.

Apart from the caretakers, the Election Commission of Pakistan, the bureaucracy and the judiciary have to play a vital role as guardians of democracy. The only blemish so far is the random use of the infamous Article 62(1)(f) inserted by General Ziaul Haq to disqualify candidates. The Article implies that a returning officer (RO) is entitled to reject the nomination papers of a candidate if he is “not sagacious, righteous and non-profligate, honest and ameen”. No definition of these words has been given, leaving the process of scrutiny open to being abused and misused. One person can appear to be ameen or righteous to me but not to another. Can we then leave this determination to the whim, fancy and mercy of an RO? With due respect, it is impossible for anyone to scrutinise nomination papers, carry out a summary inquiry without a trial and decide that a candidate’s personality is flawed and he cannot contest elections. This would not only be a violation of the candidate’s fundamental rights but also a negation of the principles of democracy where the ultimate judgment belongs to the people who have to decide whether a candidate has the qualities to be elected to parliament.

I have had the opportunity of traveling far and wide within Pakistan in the last 10 days in connection with the scrutiny of nomination papers and have witnessed bizarre misuse of Article 62, which has tarnished the image of the lower judiciary and made a mockery of the whole process.

The sad part is that while by and large ROs are acting strictly within the confines of the law, a few incidents have created mass confusion and given rise to criticism. Let me share one such incident. I heard an RO asking a candidate which hotel he had stayed in on a visit to Dubai. Then he asked the candidate if he had given any tips to the waiter when he ordered room service. The candidate’s lawyer, obviously exasperated, inquired from the judge, and rightly so, as to what is the relevancy of this query. The judge said: “I need to cross-examine the candidate to find out if he is ameen, and had you not interrupted me, my next questions were designed to ascertain whether the candidate had ordered any alcoholic beverages so that I could disqualify him under Article 62.”

With due respect, ROs do not have the power to judge a person’s qualities as a human being.

Parliament did not have the guts to delete this Article when passing the Eighteenth Amendment, but made an amendment to the effect that in order for a person not to be sagacious or ameen, there should be a judgment of a court to that effect. The idea was to take away the power of subjective decision-making from an RO, so that a candidate is disqualified only if there is a decision of a competent court in this regard. I am happy to see that Justice Mansoor Ali Shah of the Lahore High Court, apparently alarmed by the kind of questions being asked, issued directions not to conduct such bizarre inquiries. I hope that the high court clarifies, as soon as possible, that the qualities of a person mentioned in Article 62(1)(f) have to be judged by the electorate, rather than by a judicial officer. True democracy is about leaving the decision of a person being righteous to the people.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 17th, 2013.

Do you feel lucky, punk?

By:Syed Hassan Belal Zaidi

All manner of terrorists, ruffians, thieves, murderers, pillagers and assorted psychopaths are celebrating election season. You should too

Thanks to the march of democracy upon Pakistan, we have been blessed with two consecutive parliaments that have completed their tenures. One of them was a dictator’s parliament and is hence ineligible for any sorts of records, while the other marked the successful return to “proper democracy” that was envisioned by our sage political leaders. But is the current political process truly democratic? The answer, unfortunately, is that the best revenge need not be truly democratic. Just democratic enough to tick all the relevant boxes!

Face it. Over the past two decades, only one of two major political parties has held power: the conglomerated acronyms of the Pakistan People’s Party and the various karmic incarnations of the Pakistan Muslim League. This is not to say that they are the only two parties worth voting for in the country, nor is it a reflection on the quality of their “leadership”. It just means that they have the most effective electioneering infrastructure and they were the most broad-based of the available crop.

To be honest, I have nothing against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Imran. Right before the 2002 elections, I remember a PTV crew approached me and a few friends and asked us who we would vote for. Without missing a beat, I remember saying, “Imran Khan, of course”. Today, I look back on that naïve remark and wonder, why not?

Truth be told, I will never really forgive the PTI for boycotting the 2008 general elections, because then, that uber-annoying slogan that all PTI-wallahs stuff down your throats today would’ve been off the table. I am, of course, referring to the, “Give us a chance, we’re still untested and untainted” mantra. It would’ve been far better for democracy had Imran and his allies jumped into the fray on the 18th of February, 2008 and hoped for the best. That they chose to boycott and deprived their (potential) voters of the chance to vote for a “real” third option is a slight I will not soon forget.

The democratic process, contrary to popular belief, is far more important than democracy itself. Grass-roots representation is the key to ensuring a level political playing-field for all segments of society. As it stands, the current polls seem to be yielding more of the same: sundry electables are being awarded tickets on all sides and the promised “change” is nowhere in sight. Yes, sure, the PTI will point to its youth leaders and the PML-N will point to its sidelining of stalwarts such as Ayaz Amir in the favour of “fresh blood”, but the truth is, this is just more of the same.

The greatest political tragedy of our country is that the democratic process was never allowed to continue, democracy was not allowed to nurture leaders. Today, politics is a kin-based and bankrolled affair. The independents, by and large, do not stand a chance. Opportunists such as Shah Mehmood Qureshi and others who seek to caucus with the winning party post-polling, rather than contest on one predetermined platform, are doing exactly what I would’ve thought they would. The 18th Amendment was a masterstroke of exclusionary politics and the anti-horse trading stipulation will sideline and expose the selfish streak in many-a politician. Our people, however, fail to see through the façade.

Anecdotally, I have heard from many observers that those who have no sustained access to media, mainstream, social or otherwise, are far more informed in their political decisions. I would have to agree. Politics is a constituency-to-constituency game. There is no such thing as national politics, except maybe at the center. Of course, you need leaders with a national vision to run the country, but the process they must follow to rise to the top must be one that is entrenched in – not divorced from – local politics at the grass-roots. The man at the constituency level understands this; the social media pundit from Islamabad is still struggling with the concept.

All manner of terrorists, ruffians, thieves, murderers, pillagers and assorted psychopaths are celebrating election season. You should too. Not because you have a death wish, but because you don’t. Stay home for fear of death and you’ll rue your life for the next five years. You may end up ruing it anyway, but at least if you vote – and that too for a candidate of your choosing, you’ll be able to sleep better at night. The objective of all detractors, no matter what their methods, is to stall, delay or guillotine the electoral process. The more they attack, the more their desperation shows. The only way to defeat them is to stand up to them. We cannot cower at home while these scumbags run amok. The show must go on.

Come election day, every stained thumb is as good as a beaten and bruised terrorist. Remember that.

The writer is a journalist-turned-development consultant. For more incoherence in 140-characters or less, follow @mightyobvious_

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....nuECOJAj.dpuf

The TTP is zeroing in on three political parties. While the MQM and the ANP have lost one candidate each, three belonging to the latter have sustained injuries in terrorist attacks. Dozens of ANP’s activists have died in the unending TTP offensive against the party. Last week theANP candidate for NA-4 Arbab Ayub Jan survived by the skin of his teeth, while on Wednesday it was the turn of Asfandyar Wali’s election campaign coordinator Farooq Khan. On Tuesday 17 persons were killed when the TTP attacked the ANP candidate Haroon Bilour. The same day a grenade was thrown at the house of PPP’s nominee for NA-1 in Peshawar. In Balochistan at least four people died, including Sanaullah Zehri’s son, brother and nephew, when a blast targeted his convoy. Zehri was proceeding to attend an election related gathering,

One simply fails to understand why the security provided to the leaders of the three parties was withdrawn despite the threats to their lives. Asfasndyar Wali and Sen. Zahid Khan have questioned the motive behind what he considers a studied negligence. The ANP chief has called it a conspiracy against the party. The MQM supremo has gone a step further. He maintains that this is a part of a well thought out plan to keep all liberal forces out of the assemblies and facilitate the right-wing extremists. Taking note of the militants’ sparing Punjab while making it increasingly difficult to continue the election campaign in other provinces, he has asked whether those who matter wanted to hold elections only in Punjab or in the entire country. He has asked the ECP if it wanted Pakistan to be limited to Punjab only and if so other provinces would be forced to follow their own path according to their inclinations. Few would disagree that as far as Karachi is concerned the alliance that ruled Sindh was itself responsible for the deterioration of law and order in the city. This is all the more true about the MQM which remained in power for 10 years straight. This however cannot be argued against the ANP’s KP administration which fully supported the campaign to establish the writ of the state in Swat and its leaders stood up to the threats posed by the TTP for five years.

The ECP has thrown the ball into the caretakers’ court. The KP chief minister has shifted the responsibility to the country’s political parties by issuing a call for the APC. This amounts to abnegating his responsibilities as a caretaker CM. Unless immediate measures are taken, the parties under attack might be forced to demand the postponement of the polls or worse still withdraw from the elections. This would call into question the genuineness of the polls. There is a need under the circumstances for the caretakers at the center and the provinces to take firm measures to ensure the safety of all participants in the line of fire.

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....YP9jeQa6.dpuf

April 18, 2013


With election day just a little over three weeks away and the electioneering campaign picking up steam, albeit with trepidation about terrorists striking at political gatherings, there has been an upsurge of suicide bombings and other means they employ to target their quarry. Their effort this time is to target high profile candidates so as to spread panic among the parties and subvert the elections. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) mainly responsible for carrying out such attacks has stated, in unambiguous terms, that it is opposed to elections, deeming democracy "un-Islamic".

On the heels of the TTP’s warning, an MQM candidate from Hyderabad and another of its former MPs from Karachi were killed. The ANP also lost one of its election candidates and another was seriously injured. And on Tuesday two incidents – one at Khuzdar near Quetta and the other in Peshawar – occurred, which caused the deaths of 13 and wounded another 80, quite a few of them seriously. In Peshawar, an ANP meeting was targeted and its leader Ghulam Ahmad Bilour received minor injuries. At Khuzdar, it was the PML-N head of Balochistan, Sanaullah Zehri, that they, probably, wanted to target, but while he, fortunately, escaped, his son, brother and nephew who were travelling in the motorcade and their guard fell victim to a remote control device planted on the roadside. It is noteworthy here that on his recent to the province, caretaker Prime Minister Justice (r) Mir Hazar Khan Khoso had, in a meeting with leaders of political parties, urged them to participate in the polling, holding out a firm assurance that foolproof security arrangements were being made. But the TTP’s operatives, who seem to have infiltrated into distant areas in the country, had a different mandate from their outfit. These pre-election murderous attacks are bound to have a deep psychological impact on politicians as well as the electorate. If the candidates would shy away from going about canvassing, the voters would not like to queue up at the polling stations to risk their lives. That would be truer for areas which are the frequent scenes of militancy-related disasters.

For the caretaker government, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and all those charged with providing security, it is a moment of reflection; for in case the menace is not checked and the terrorist mayhem continues to prevail, it would affect the credibility of the polls, if they can be held in this fear-ridden climate. With the voters staying at home, even though they want to cast their ballot, the elections would hardly be a true representation of their views. The whole purpose of the exercise will be lost. The challenge, no doubt the outcome of incoherent and indifferent policies of the previous governments, has to be faced squarely and overcome with single-minded commitment and devotion. The country can neither afford to delay the general elections, nor take the risk of affording an opportunity to the non-democratic forces to assert themselves that any delay would tempt them to avail.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...ons/editorials

Pakistan is on the verge of making history. For the first time, a democratically-elected government is going to transfer power in the forthcoming elections. This is, indeed, a landmark achievement for a country ridden with military interventions since its independence. However, one critical factor remains unanswered: how will the largely uneducated populace of Pakistan choose its future in the upcoming elections?

According to recent estimates, only 58 per cent of 180 million Pakistanis can read or write. Nearby Sri Lanka, despite surviving a violent civil war, has managed to educate 98 per cent of its population, whereas India, despite being the second most populated country in the world, has an impressive 74 per cent literacy rate.

In Pakistan, however, the few that are educated seem to be divided on the basis of gender, ethnicity and influence. For instance, Balochistan stands as the least educated province and women, who form more than half of our total population, are largely illiterate, especially in the rural areas of the country.
The emphasis on education is important because illiteracy plays into the hands of corrupt politicians who try to win votes on the basis of affiliations and biradari systems, rather than on their contributions to the nation.

Lessons are to be learned from history. During the Dark Ages of Europe, the Church purposely kept the people uneducated so as to continue its influence without facing any accountability. One dreads that the pattern in Pakistan is similar, where the ruling elite keeps the people uneducated in order to exploit them for their selfish motives. A glimpse of the budget allocation on the education sector is reflective of this fact.

Closely linked to education is public awareness. The mass media in Pakistan has made remarkable progress in recent years. It has played a pivotal role in keeping the public informed and bringing the ruling elite under the umbrella of accountability and scrutiny. However, the achievements have been far from ideal. There are still certain sections of the media that cater to the demands of a select few, thus influencing people to formulate biased opinions. With the elections looming, the media’s role is of utmost importance. Considering the fact that the majority of our population is uneducated, the votes cast will be largely influenced by the mass media. It is imperative that the media portrays an unbiased opinion through print and television programmes so that the public can make an informed decision.

Otherwise, the next elected government may continue to push the country towards an abyss of turmoil and underdevelopment through self-serving policies that continue to enslave the people. For the right people to be elected, our people need to be informed and educated. This is where the real challenge lies for the country. Let us hope that come May 11, 2013, votes are cast not on the basis of sects, castes, biradaries and political affiliations but on the basis of a thorough, logical and comparative analysis of the contesting politicians.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 18th, 2013.

For many optimists who believe in democracy, the forthcoming elections are the initial goalposts of a positive direction for the country. Since its very creation, Pakistan has been oscillating and it has yet to find a direction.
There are thousands of contestants for the forthcoming elections to be held under a considerably free and upright Election Commission. Voters’ confusion, this time around, is an indicator of free and fair elections. This time, there seems to be no state institution twisting the general will as per its wishes; and hopefully, the elections will be regarded as just by political and democratic forces. In this sense, the elections are not engineered. However, there are “invisible contestants” in the elections who want to manoeuvre them in their favour.

The murder of a local leader of the Awami National Party (ANP) in Swat on April 14, subsequent attacks on its leaders in Charsadda and, of course, the murder of an MQM candidate in Hyderabad a few days ago as well as the most recent attack on Ghulam Ahmad Bilour of the ANP are all obvious signs that this time, the Taliban — the invisible contestants — want not only to sabotage the elections but also to turn them in their favour. The ANP is the single political party in Pakistan which has — no doubt, with many leadership and governance flaws — been consistent in fighting the deadly enemy within.

This is the reason that the ANP has been singled out by the Taliban among scores of political parties in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), the political stronghold of the ANP. Along with the ANP, the MQM and the PPP are also on the hit list of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Both the ANP and the PPP are regarded as being of leftist ideology, although in Pakistani politics, ideology has long been replaced with opportunism and rhetoric, and is virtually left to the extremists, both religious and ethnic.

With too many political parties having colliding interests, there is no hope of any consensus on the menace of terrorism. Had political parties had a consensus on extremism, there would have been no vocal threats, let alone assaults on political and democratic forces by extremists. The lack of a national consensus on terrorism among the political forces in Pakistan is the real tragedy faced by the nation. This seems to predicate a number of issues that need to be resolved.

First, it implies that political parties are not serious enough on the subject of extremism; and this is evident from their manifestos. Many among them even regard that the terrorism in the country is imposed by certain foreign powers that are at war with other extremists somewhere outside Pakistan.

Second, political forces are helpless before certain other forces which, in turn, do not want to root out terrorism completely.

Third, the lack of consensus on terrorism implies that Pakistani society in its entirety actually wants what the extremists are apparently out for. Despite the widespread apologists in the media and social media, this doesn’t seem to be the reality. How many in Pakistan buy what the religious political parties sell? In any nationwide free elections, these parties have never been successful in securing majority votes. They didn’t even perform well despite being covertly supported by the secret agencies in Pakistan.

The security forces of Pakistan must, at least, confine the invisible contestants to their hideouts and protect the democratic forces, especially the centre-left political parties, so as to ensure free and fair elections. Otherwise, the May 11 elections may be deemed engineered — this time, by the so-called non-state actors. Furthermore, political parties need a unanimous stance against extremism in all its varieties to free the nation of its bloody grip. Otherwise, there seems to be no hope for a prosperous and peaceful Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 18th, 2013.

Power politics
By M A Niazi

It was an inevitability that letting the outgoing Assembly run to its full term would mean a summer election. Elections are avoided in summer because of the heat, but ever since the Musharraf era interpretation of a full term meant five years in full for the Assembly, and not five years from election to election, the caretaker term has been tacked on, meaning that the elections do not take place according to the calendar, but according to a slightly wider definition of a year. The result is that if there are enough Assemblies running to their full term, the elections would fall in summer. As much as the current Assembly, being elected on May 11, goes to its full term, the next election will take place around end-July 2018. It should not be forgotten that if the five-year rule is insisted upon, one could get an India-type situation, where the second Assembly had been elected, but the first not dissolved, and which met after the election.

That is not the only objection to an election at this time of the year. One other result is being seen now: budget-making without the government that will present it. In fact, the new government, which will probably take office at the end of May, will have to present the budget, defend it and get it passed in the month after that. If it does not, the government will grind to a halt, because no money can be disbursed without parliamentary sanction. The constitution provides for a situation where there is no Assembly at the time of the budget, a situation the country faced in 1988, but what happens just after an election, it is silent.
One additional problem, the constitution was silent about loadshedding. There are a number of difficulties it creates before the elections. But the first one is about to come up - that of maintaining law and order. As loadshedding increases with coming of the heat, and as longer and longer power breakdowns occur, people have begun rioting, going as far as to attack distribution company offices. Over the last few years, this has occurred, but the law and order situation quickly comes under control, almost as if rioters and potential rioters themselves are frightened by what they have done. This process, which takes days rather than weeks, looks as if it will coincide, or at least overlap, with the polling day. The most immediate problem the incoming government will have to deal with will be either power protests, or their aftermath. If the caretakers are over-enthusiastic about suppressing these protests, that aftermath might be frightful for an elected government.
If one sees the difficulties being caused, it does not seem logical for the option of the Kalabagh Dam project to have been closed. Among other benefits of the dam, it was to have produced 3,600 MW of hydro-electricity. Unlike thermal electricity, which can only be generated if there is hydrocarbon fuel burnt, whether gas, furnace oil or even coal, hydel needs only for water to flow. Gas and furnace oil need to be imported, while Thar coal is indigenous.
The import of fuel has also been problematic. The problem of circular debt has been created by this need to import. When a renewable source, hydel, is abundantly available, the question arises: why it has not been raised?
This is particularly the case for the current election. This is by no means the first election when loadshedding has been one of the issues for the campaign. Energy loadshedding goes back to the 1990s. Loadshedding, this time around, may have become one of the main campaign issues, and it is noteworthy that all parties have seen fit to address it in their manifestoes, mostly in the shape of timeframes to end it.
Solutions involve an end to problems that existed before, like theft, or transmission losses. There had been a time when the system met the demand for power placed on it, even as a certain degree of theft took place, even as there were transmission losses. Then, as now, the costs were met by bill-paying customers, who did not mind so much - firstly, because they were given a guaranteed source of power, and secondly, because they were not made to pay so much. The raising of the bills has been a perennial demand of the IMF and World Bank, but it does not seem to be working. The theory is that if the cost of electricity goes up, demand should go down. This does not take into account the fact that demand for electricity is not that price elastic.
There is also the factor that increases in electricity price raises the costs in certain export industries, with the result that many have closed, and all have seen their products priced out of the world market. However, while the harmful effects of a price rise have taken place, the beneficial effect of a decline in demand has not. The demand-supply gap persists.
The gap is not between installed capacity and demand, so much as between available capacity and demand. However, there is a Planning Commission estimate that sees the gap as persisting to 2020. In other words, the foreseeable future. Another telling detail is that the estimate does not mention the time when the gap would be at an end, but just when it would be greatly reduced.
One problem has been the attempt of the PPP government to impose an ancient solution on the problem. In 1993, when the second Benazir government came to office, there was a full-blown power crisis, which it met by inducting the Independent Power Producers. As in the 1980s, loadshedding went away, during the second Prime Ministership of Mian Nawaz Sharif, but it was back, as rising demand once more outstripped capacity. When the PPP returned to office, it tried that solution again, ending up with the RPPs fiasco. Perhaps worse, loadshedding did not come to an end.
The caretaker government, and probably the incoming elected government, will not be able to solve the loadshedding problem. However, there should be a movement towards a solution, in the form of an executive decision to pursue projects that meet the national interest, like the Kalabagh Dam. It is ironical that Kalabagh was conceived, like Mangla and Tarbela, as a water storage, and hydel was merely a by-product, but now the power is more important. The benefits of additional water storage will also be available, which will be all the more necessary, as water is the looming crisis, as Pakistan moves from the ranks of the water-stressed, which it has reached, to those of the water scarce.
Whichever party, or combination of parties, forms the government, loadshedding will be a symbol of performance and commitment. Failure to end it will reflect badly, perhaps even fatally, on the government. The problem, if it goes away because of installation of additional generation capacity, will recur, both because Pakistan’s population is growing and because its economy is expanding. However, no government will be able to tackle this problem if it takes office in the midst of a full-scale power crisis.

The writer is a veteran journalist and founding member as well as executive editor of TheNation.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...power-politics

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)