April 19, 2013


The dismissal of former President General Pervez Musharraf’s appeal seeking an extension in his bail in the judges’ confinement case by the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Thursday has created a stir in political, military and legal circles. Indeed, all segments of society, supporter or opponent, official or non-official, high or low, are watching keenly to ascertain just how Pakistan will deal with the first of its former dictators ever to go on trial. Adding further spice to the case was the total inaction shown by the police in putting him under arrest that had been specifically ordered by the IHC. As he came out of the court room, he sped off to his villa in Chak Shahzad, a posh Islamabad suburb, in a bullet-proof vehicle, guarded by his personal security, with the police and rangers playing the part of silent spectators. The amazing and at the same time equally shameful reality is the utter lack of cooperation and indifference shown by the caretaker setup in Musharraf’s trial, though it is simply carrying on with the tradition set by its predecessor governments. The former military dictator faces several cases in the courts, including treason for subverting the constitution and murders of PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto and Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti.

As of now, Musharraf's residence has been declared a sub-jail, where unlike civilian, elected leaders like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif, he will not have to suffer the rigours of a jail cell and instead live in the plush comfort of his own home till his case is decided. A complex politico-military relationship in the country is now adjusting to the reality that this is the first time that an ex-army chief is being put on trial, causing many a prospective adventurer in the ranks to tug uncomfortably at their collar.
However, even with enormous public support and judicial pressure, the caretaker government still appears to be walking on eggshells when dealing with the former dictator. On the one hand, Information Minister Arif Nizami tells the media that the government will comply with the orders of the court, on the other, the orders transferring all the SHOs of the capital are withdrawn. The wholesale shift of these key police officers soon after Musharraf was able to leave the court premises without any resistance by them was being interpreted as a reaction to their failure to do their duty.
Musharraf’s lawyers tried to file an appeal before the Supreme Court, but were asked to attach the full judgment of the IHC issued within hours of the interim order. Also, the full court meeting of the Supreme Court might, one is tempted to assume, have debated these quick and unexpected developments before it hears the appeal today. However, Pakistan is passing through interesting times, with one crisis over another bedeviling its scene. Even if one were to put aside the umpteen crises (crippling power cuts, near financial bankruptcy, upsurge in terrorist attacks, for instance), now, the former military ruler’s cases have added another dimension: uncertainty. The fears that the army might sharply react if the cases are taken to their logical conclusion hang in the air, but Pakistan is now irrevocably destined for a democratic transition, and on this, all institutions agree.

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The Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Tahreek-i-Insaf of Imran Khan have begun their election campaigns without entering into an alliance with other parties and hope to form the next government with a majority.

However, ground realities show that no party can come to power single-handedly in Pakistan, where religious and some regional parties play a vital role in making or breaking of government.

The PML-N, sensing a victory in the upcoming polls, ended talks for an electoral understanding with two major religious parties, the Jamiat Ulema-i Ismam (JUI-F) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). According to the PML-N, it had declined to accommodate both parties in the Punjab as they were demanding about a dozen seats each. The JUI Chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman expressed disappointment over the failure of the talks and said considerable progress had been made on seat adjustments in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa but the PML-N was reluctant to surrender any seat in the Punjab. Fazl claimed the PML-N had struck a secret deal with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. A JI spokesman also announced failure of talks on seat adjustment with the PML-N in the Punjab and said that the PML-N had the US pressure in mind when it refused to contest polls jointly. In fact, the PML-N does not want to make any concession in the Punjab which has been its power base for decades.

However, it faces a major challenge from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

The PML-N's bid to come to power will depend on the performance of the PTI in the Punjab. The PPP also depends a lot on the PTI as its gains will directly benefit the PPP and hit the PML-N.

According to analysts, the PML-N had decided to disassociate itself from pro-Taliban religious parties like the JI and the JUI-F to establish its acceptability as a democratic party in the West. In the recent past, the PML-N has been accused of being a sympathiser of pro-Taliban religious parties due to which the West and the US have reservations about it. Other provinces consider the Punjab a safe haven for the Punjabi Taliban and they allege that terrorist activities in their areas had roots in the Punjab. Former provincial minister Rana Sanaullah was accused of close links with militant organisations and former Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif once said the Taliban and the PML-N were on the same page.

Meanwhile, the PML-N also refused to accommodate its 12 "allies" from the PML (Like-Minded) group, a breakaway faction of the PML-Q.

Commenting on the development, a PML (Like-Minded) spokesperson said: "This act of the PML-N leadership should fall under the ambit of Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution." The faction comprises the likes of former Federal Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar Khan, former Sindh Chief Minister Dr. Arbab Ghulam Rahim, two-time MNA Kashmala Tariq, Naveed Rizvi, Salim Saifullah Khan and former National Assembly Speaker Hamid Nasir Chatta. They also plan to move the Election Commission of Pakistan for the disqualification of PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif. They said Nawaz had agreed to allocate 11 per cent seats to the group in year 2012, under a seat adjustment formula. Under the agreement, group members had to be accommodated on 30 National Assembly seats, but they were only given one seat, to Salim Saifullah Khan from Lakki Marwat and that too a PML-N ticket, another violation of the agreement. Saifullah has also refused to contest on a PML-N ticket. The pact was also signed and a press conference was held at Raiwind. After being betrayed and dumped by the PML-N, the group stands divided. Humayun Akhtar Khan, the secretary general of the group, is still hopeful of a breakthrough, while Chattha has revived the PML-Junejo and Arbab Ghulam Rahim, the group president, has formed the Peoples Muslim League.

All parties will take into account the act of the PML-N in its efforts to form the next government. On the other hand, the former ruling Pakistan Peoples Party completed its five-year term only on the basis of its ability to form and maintain alliances, even in adverse situations, before and after elections. It will contest the election with its former coalition partners, the MQM, the PML-Q and the ANP. It hopes to form the next government in Pakistan even if it fails to bag far less seats than it secured in the 2008 election as it has pinned high hopes on its coalition partners to perform better.

The PPP bagged 124 seats in the National Assembly, with 97 elected representatives, 23 reserved seats for women and four reserved seats for minorities. Its coalition partner PML-Q had 54 seats, with 42 elected representatives, 10 women reserved seats and two minority seats. The MQM bagged 25 seats with 19 elected representatives, five women and one minority seat. The ANP had 13 seats, 10 elected representatives and three women seats. In all, the coalition partners had 216 seats in a house of 340 seats.

There is no doubt that the PPP and all its coalition partners will not be able to retain their seats. The PPP may not be able to win many seats in big cities of the Punjab and in Balochistan, but it hopes to make amends in south Punjab where it is tipped to bag the majority seats after raising the slogan of a separate south Punjab province. Even if it loses 24 National Assembly seats, it will have at least 100 in the next parliament. Its coalition partners, the PML-Q and the ANP are also not better placed, The PML-Q has been weakened considerably ahead of the election after massive defections to the PML-N and if it succeeds in bagging 20 seats, it will be a huge achievement. The ANP faces a formidable challenge from the PTI of Imran Khan but still it will be able to win 10 seats. As for the MQM, its seats will remain intact even after the delimitation of constituencies in Karachi. In this way, the former coalition partners will have at least 185 seats, enough to make the next government.

On the other hand, the PML-N had 91 seats in the last parliament, with 71 elected, 17 women and three minority representatives. The PTI, the MQM and the ANP could never be its allies even after polls. It only can fancy the JUI-F, which had seven seats along with the MMA in the National Assembly and the PML-F, with five National Assembly seats and the JI which can hardly win a seat independently throughout the country. In this way, the PML-N will have to win over 150 seats in the National Assembly to form the next government which is an uphill task, even if all independents join it.

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Recently, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) unveiled its election manifesto setting the roadmap for "Naya Pakistan" (New Pakistan), which the party claims to want to build, once it gets political power.

People and experts have been waiting keenly for the unveiling of the PTI manifesto because, after a very long time, a new political force has become a serious contender for power in the country. The election manifesto of the PTI overall is a very balanced document, as it touches all the key areas and issues of the country which needs attention.

According to the largest-circulating English language Pakistani newspaper: "PTI's manifesto, unveiled Tuesday, is truly an outstanding document compared to other political parties, where experts in the relevant fields have given their input." In fact, if one looks into the contents of the PTI manifesto, they reveal that they have been written after threadbare consultation with the experts of the respective field. According to independent sources, the PTI contacted and consulted a large number of technocrats and experts of different fields, not only for formulating its manifesto, but to enhance the understanding of the party's high command regarding different departments and areas.

For instance, a policy regarding the railways was formed after consulting a number of railway officials, including a former secretary of the ministry. This approach naturally is the most sound to formulate policies, and any party could adopt it but the PTI took the lead in this regard for which it must be given credit. The most important aspect of the manifesto is regarding the party strategy to deal with the issue of religious extremism and terrorism in the country. While one may not agree with the PTI's long-held position of talks with the insurgents or Taliban but, at the same time, it is also important to understand that the party does not want talks merely to appease the insurgents.

Instead it wants to use the tool of dialogue to disarm the insurgents and to stop bloodshed. This is, indeed, a rational strategy, but keeping in view the complexion and agenda of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) one does not think that dialogue is any lasting or workable solution. On the other hand, the PTI manifesto very rightly states that the party counterterrorism policy would adopt a comprehensive approach whose core aim would be to abolish the narrative of Jihad so as to reduce the size of the problem to be tackled. Moreover, the counterterrorism policy also would aim at plugging the financial channels funding militants and extremists.

The PTI manifesto also touches the very important area of foreign policy, particularly Pakistan's relations with India and the United States (US). Regarding India, the PTI manifesto states, "Progressive detente with India will benefit both countries if centred on conflict resolution and cooperation, especially in the field of energy. PTI will move substantively on the bilateral strategic dialogue with India encompassing all aspects of the strategic nuclear deterrence so as to prevent a spiralling nuclear race in the region."
It means that unlike the PPP founder Zulfiqar Bhutto, who promised to fight a "hundred-years war with India if need be" and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) founder Nawaz Sharif's vow to fulfil the agenda of General Ziaul Haq, who envisioned a Utopian "Islamic" Empire in South Asia, the PTI maiden manifesto rests on peaceful relations with India. Insofar as relations of Islamabad with the US are concerned, the PTI manifesto envisages a "constructive" relationship with Washington, based on the principles of sovereign national interest and international law instead of aid dependency.

So the PTI vision for relations with Delhi and Washington belies the partial perception that the party chief Imran Khan is a "clean-shaven" Taliban and that the PTI is a new manifestation of the Jamaat-e-Islami. Nevertheless, the manifesto maintains that it will pull out Pakistan from the global war on terror. Pakistan should have pulled out much earlier of the war, as it has inflicted irreparable loss to the country. However, Pakistan could secure its state and society by formulating a comprehensive counter-extremism and counterterrorism policy, and must implement it. Remaining involved in the US-led war while attempting to eliminate extremism and terrorism perpetrated in the name of Islam is well-nigh impossible and this is what we have learnt from history.

The manifesto also addresses the key problem of the energy crisis and argues that if voted to power the party would end the power load-shedding in three years. This is a realistic assessment; however, it would need gargantuan efforts to achieve the task. Otherwise, at the current rate independent observers are of the view that power load-shedding could not be ended before 2019. A very important point of the PTI manifesto is the holding of local bodies' elections within 90 days after coming into power. All the main political parties, including the PPP, the PML-N, the Awami National Party, the JUI-F, who have been in power in Sindh, the Punjab, the KP and Balochistan, respectively, in the last five years are responsible for high-jacking the local government system. These parties shun holding elections for the municipal councils after the system successfully completed two four-year tenures after introduced by the General Musharraf regime in 2001. This inflicted irreparable damage on the country and trounced the prospects of a true democracy flourishing.

As the PTI is the only political party, which has held intra-party elections recently, therefore, it is expected that it would have no qualms in holding local bodies' elections within the shortest possible time. The PTI manifesto also envisages a levy of 15 per cent agriculture tax on landholdings exceeding 50 acres. This is the first time in Pakistan that a major contender for power has promised imposing agriculture tax. If a major political party so intends then it is a historic opportunity to use it to overthrow the existing social structure, which has benefitted a few and has inflicted sufferings on the majority.

The manifesto also states to eliminate the system of thana, patwari (land agent) and katcheri (courts). It is said that political preferences and loyalties in rural Pakistan, where most of the voting has traditionally been done, has revolved around the issues of land revenue, police and land agents. So people have been voting for those leaders who have helped them in dealing with the inherently corrupt above-mentioned government departments.

As the PTI Chairman Imran Khan intends to computerize all land-related data to replace the infamous "patwari system", it would mean a fundamental change in the political system, as people would no longer be constrained to vote for those who helped them overcome excesses of the system. In a nutshell, the PTI manifesto can be termed as anti-status quo, forward-looking and development-oriented which addresses the key issues of the state and society. However, only a huge win in the coming polls could help the party to have an opportunity to implement it.

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Eventually the two ferocious insurgent groups, Lashkar-e-Islam and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have joined hands in the Khyber Agency posing a grave threat to the security of the area, Peshawar and beyond. The decision to unify the activities of the two groups reportedly was taken recently by the executive bodies, the so-called Shuras, of the two militant outfits which also made Mangal Bagh the supreme commander of the groups. Bagh founded the Khyber Agency based, LI, several years back.

The joint Shuras of the LI and the TTP also decided to coordinate with each other and consult on all matters of mutual importance, particularly those pertaining to Tirah valley and the Khyber Agency. The timing of joining of hands by the LI and the TTP is critically important as it has come at a time when the TTP has recently captured areas formerly in the control of another militant group, Ansar-ul-Islam (AI) in Tirah valley of the Khyber Agency. In the fighting between the TTP and the AI, an unconfirmed number of around 300 to 500 people, including militants, lost their lives, while around 20,000 people had to flee their homes. Many people are still stuck in the areas as the fighting continues.


On the other hand, Bagh has been made the joint commander by the LI and the TTP when a two-pronged military offensive has been launched by Pakistani security forces against both the outfits in the Tirah valley. The making of Bagh, as the supreme commander of both the LI and the TTP may lead to the ultimate merger of the two outfits. We have been predicting the joining of hands by the two groups in these lines, of and on, for many years and warned that it would become a worst case scenario from the security point of view. Our analysis of the ultimate merger between the two groups, despite serious differences, which also resulted in tens of killings of each others' members including commanders, was based on the common agenda of both the outfits as well as compatibility and complementary aims of these groups.


The LI has been the dominant militant group and, despite the stiff challenge thrown to it by the so-called pro-government force, AI, it reigned supreme in the tribal region. On the other hand, the TTP, which emerged in South Waziristan and established viable networks across FATA and rest of the country, could never get a firm foothold in the Khyber Agency, arguably the most strategic district of FATA. Therefore, the TTP always required the help of the LI head Bagh to form its base in the district. The TTP urge for having a base and, thus, sanctuaries in the Khyber Agency had become critically important after the relatively successful operation against the TTP by the security forces in its hub, the Mehsud tribe-inhabited part of South Waziristan and its strongest hold in Orakzai Agency.


The latter named agency share borders with the Tirah valley of the Khyber Agency; so after the TTP lost ground in Orakzai, many of its fighters shifted to Tirah. Although the LI has been fighting the AI in Bara Tehsil of the Khyber Agency and had driven it upward to Tirah, but there it could not eliminate the group on its own. Therefore, it also needed the support of the TTP, which with more militants and firepower could help Bagh eliminate the AI. Thus, these compatible aims of both groups have finally brought them together.
The joining of hands by the LI and the TTP has now posed a multidimensional security threat. Because the Khyber Agency is of immense strategic importance, as downtown Peshawar is only a few kilometres away from Bara, while the Pak-Afghanistan Highway also passes through the Khyber Agency, the only part of FATA through which this highway passes. The threat has also started unfolding as in the ongoing military offensive although the militant groups have lost more than 150 fighters, but have also inflicted heavy damage on the security forces.

For instance, during April 6 and 9, the security forces lost 23 soldiers, while killing 110 insurgents. Despite heavy aerial and ground shelling and fire and fighting between the insurgents and the security forces, the latter have so far faced immense resistance to take back the areas under the insurgents' control. After the fall of Tirah to the TTP-LI, the government has decided to launch a full-fledged offensive to purge the area of the insurgents. Such an offensive was long overdue, but due to the overstretching of the military across the western borders, it could not be launched earlier.

However, this time the offensive must be decisive, otherwise the threat would go out of hand. The sensing of a big military offensive also seems to have driven the LI and the TTP to ally and coordinate activities. In fact, on a number of occasions in the past, Mangal Bagh had threatened that if the security forces launched an operation against him, he would let the TTP militants into the Khyber Agency to have a base. This threat had worked, as the earlier operation against the LI was not that severe and it remained confined to merely pushing the LI fighters up to the remote Tirah Valley in upper Khyber Agency so as to secure the lower parts contiguous to Peshawar.

However, the government forces had captured the main bases of the LI in Gogrina and Gurguri areas in Bara and pushed most of the fighters to Tirah valley but they had also killed some close relatives of Mangal Bagh.

It is important to mention here that the LI has never been part of the TTP, the umbrella organization of anti-state militant and terrorist groups. However, when a couple of years back the military operations started in the Khyber, both organizations came closer. But despite of this closeness they remained different organizations. The making of Mangal Bagh as the supreme commander of both the LI and the TTP has also clarified the shadowy relations of the two groups. Bagh has given full support to the TTP in the recent fighting with its own arch-rival AI and helped the TTP get itself entrenched in Khyber Agency.

In the past, too, both groups coordinated their attacks but the level of co-option as it is now was never there. For instance, on one occasion in April 2010, hundreds of militants from both groups had attacked the Frontier Corps Camp in Bara. In the incident 20 militants got killed but the militants also managed to strike with a suicide bomber which killed some security forces personnel. The threat from the LI and the TTP alliance has now become critical and the only way to mitigate and to eliminate it is a full-fledged operation, otherwise the security of Peshawar and the suburbs would become more problematic.

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The scrutiny process conducted by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to verify the nomination papers of candidates for the next elections has been increasingly questioned for being untargeted, unfocussed, incomplete and unfair. Critics have pointed out that due to the arbitrary and subjective approach adopted by the Returning Officers a large number of tax evaders, loan defaulters and others not measuring up to the criteria laid down in Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution have escaped the net.

It appears the RO's were not properly briefed about the plain objective criteria to follow to adjudge the eligibility of the aspiring candidates. Resultantly, they wasted a lot of valuable time asking irrelevant questions and testing the candidates' knowledge of Islamic rituals and sermonizing unnecessarily about piety and family values. In the process, the real objective of keeping the tax dodgers and looters of public money out of the electoral process was diluted and missed.

To recall, the ball was set rolling by Dr. Tahir-ul-Qadri who, addressing a massive sit-in rally in Islamabad in January, demanded basic electoral reforms, including strict scrutiny of politicians, to bar the way of members of the corrupt elite, cheats and tricksters who have for more than five decades been working their way into the assemblies and misruling over the hapless teeming millions of Pakistan in the name of democracy. The blockade of Islamabad ended after the government signed an accord agreeing to make the electoral process fair, transparent and free of all its inherent flaws and faults.

But things have not turned out the way they were supposed to do. Reports in the local and foreign press have termed the scrutiny process 'bizarre' and pointed out that there is a growing feeling in the country that the process has failed to weed out the bribe-takers and tax-dodgers it was meant to target. According to the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), an independent group which monitors elections in Pakistan, the Returning Officers, who scrutinized the nomination papers, had missed the key issue: "Corrupt politicians have been given clearance and that is very sad. It has damaged people's trust in the whole process. The biggest issue in Pakistan is corruption and that has not been addressed - no politician so far has been disqualified on that basis."

In the beginning, a lot of dust was raised about fake degree holders which diverted attention from the main issue of candidates who are habitual tax evaders, loan defaulters and non-payers of utility bills. An investigative media report in December revealed that two-thirds of the federal lawmakers had paid no tax in the previous year despite an estimated average net wealth of nearly $ 900,000. Additionally, some of the most prominent MPs have faced major corruption allegations during their political career. Under the constitution, anyone who fails to pay their taxes or utility bills or who has outstanding debts of over two million rupees is disqualified from running for Parliament.

According to the FBR data now available on the internet, more than half of the members of the outgoing Parliament do not have a National Tax Number (NTN). Reports have also appeared about how much tax has been paid by our legislators in the last three years. Most of these outgoing MPs are again in the race and their nomination papers have, by and large, been accepted. Not one big name has yet been disqualified for not paying taxes or defaulting on bank loans.

According to a report the FBR's initial scrutiny of candidates' tax matters showed serious cases of tax default, tax evasion and tax fraud. It was found that a vast number of the contestants are non-filers of income tax returns which should attract penal action u/s 182 of the Income Tax Ordinance 2001 for the default in filing returns. Another major category of contestants comprises cases where substantial income has been declared in tax returns but either no tax has been paid or the tax paid is not commensurate with the declared income. Besides, there are many cases with outstanding tax demand. However, the largest category of contestants consists of non-NTN holders who under the law cannot be allowed to enter parliament.

There is a mysterious conspiracy of silence, mixed with a big dose of confusion and ambiguity, on all these issues, although the Supreme Court and the high courts are on record as having repeatedly declared that no tax evaders or defaulters will be allowed to enter the upcoming parliament. It defies comprehension as to why, with a supposedly neutral caretakers in place and a free judiciary supported by a vibrant and strong media in action, is the ECP so inhibited and shy of performing its constitutional duty?

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May 11, 2013 has been announced as polling day. Scrutiny of nominations papers has been completed and submission of appeals to election tribunals and their decisions ended on 16th. Final list will be issued on 18th. Election campaign will reach feverish pitch from 19 April. Notwithstanding the eagerness of the candidates and voters, security environment are not conducive for holding smooth, fair and free elections. Punjab is the only province where the security situation is not as bad because governance of Punjab government was far better than in other provinces.

Besides security concerns and fears that elections will be bloody, there is growing skepticism over the impartiality of caretakers and Election Commission (EC). Questions asked by the Returning Officers to ascertain whether the candidates fulfill the requirements of Articles 62 and 63 have generated a heated debate. The main objection is that focus should have been on financial impropriety rather than on testing candidate�s knowledge of Islam. Seculars are in ugly mood and are demanding scrapping of Gen Zia invented Articles in the constitution, not realizing that these were duly approved by the outgoing parliament while introducing 18th Amendment.

Every political party, whether status quo loving or change seeking, is claiming that it will bring about a revolutionary change if voted to power. None has the magic wand or credible roadmap to overcome complex problems and yet it claims that it would be able to clear the huge mess left behind by the last government in quick time and make Pakistan an Asian tiger or a welfare state. Among the contesting political parties, three liberal parties PPP, MQM and ANP are feeling more insecure because of threats hurled by Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP).

Excessive force was employed against the militants after PPP-MQM-ANP coalition had taken over power in March 2008. Large-scale Army operations were launched in Swat, Buner, Dir, Shangla, Dara Adam Khel and all tribal agencies to control menace of terrorism. It led to displacement of millions of people from war ravaged regions. The last government was also suspected of permitting CIA to employ drones in FATA freely. Acceleration of drone war gave rise to militancy and heightened antagonism against USA and the government.

The TTP which doesn�t believe in Pakistan�s constitution, democracy and elections and advocates its brand of Sharia, is now trying to settle scores with liberal parties, which it considers as anti-Islamists and hand-in-glove with USA. It has actualized its plan to disrupt election campaign by targeting contestants of the three secular parties. Terrorist acts have been stepped up particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).

The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), an affiliate of al-Qaeda and TTP, with its main base in Jhang is targeting Shias outside Punjab, which has given a handle to other political parties to lament that PML-N has a secret alliance with LeJ and Ahle-Sunnat Wal Jamaat. Although of late PML-N has distanced itself from banned religious groups, it cannot be denied that police and crime investigative system in Punjab being more stringent and effective than other provinces constricted the space for terrorists. The MQM has all along maintained a hostile posture against the Taliban and other extremist religious groups. Altaf Hussain has been raising alarm bells about arrival of Taliban in Karachi. After the target killing of two candidates of MQM in Hyderabad and Karachi, the MQM has decided to curtail holding of public meetings and to instead carryout door-to-door canvassing.

The ANP is however the chief target of TTP, which had authorized repeated Army operations in KPK and PATA and had all along remained in combative mood to crush militancy. Maximum numbers of ANP activists and leaders including Bashir Ahmad Bilour have been gunned down by TTP. Even after ANP leadership decided to tone down its aggressiveness and to hold peace talks with TTP, the latter has not relented. Since March 31, 2013, five ANP contestants have been targeted. Latest suicide attack on ANP public meeting in Peshawar took place on April 16 in which eight activists got killed and 50 including Ghulam Ahmad Bilour received injuries. Hamstrung ANP deprived of security cover was left with no choice but to prefer door-to-door canvassing over public meetings and to advise its party chief Asfand Wali to stay indoors. ANP leadership has blamed caretakers and EC for failing to provide security. Governed by similar fear psychos, the PPP is also constrained to keep its trump card Bilawal Bhutto restrained.

Gen Musharraf who has recently barged into the political arena is also a prime target of TTP as well as the Baloch militants. Demand for his trial and prosecution under Article 6 for subverting constitution is growing louder. He is also blamed for Lal Masjid carnage, getting Nawab Akbar Bugti murdered and having a hand in murder of Benazir Bhutto. Although his defence counsel is buoyant, his high spirits have soured and he gives looks of a depressed man.

Akhtar Mengal has returned once again and has announced that his BNP will contest elections provided security situation in Balochistan is favorable. PML-N has offered seat adjustments to BNP. So far Mengal is unhappy with the existing situation and holds the military responsible for it. In case he takes part in elections, he along with Hasil Bizenjo can help in emasculating the power of separatists or inducing them to come down from the mountains.

Besides the ongoing development works, the Army has opened a Cadet College and Public School in Sui, Quetta Institute of Medical Sciences, Gawadar Institute of Technology, Chamalang Beneficiary Education Program, Balochistan Institute of Technical Education and Army Institute of Mineralogy to promote education in Balochistan and to enlighten the youth of the province. These institutes together with induction of 10,082 Baloch youth in Army as officers and soldiers in last three years have already made a healthy impact on the Baloch people. 10,000 vacancies in Army had been allotted by Gen Kayani for Baloch youth for the years 2009-11 and additional 5000 vacancies have been announced for 2012-13.

Leaders of all separatist groups other than BLF are absconders. Funded by foreign powers, they are leading a luxurious life abroad. Their continued absence is causing heartburns to Baloch fighters stuck in the mountains. It has also led to intensification of inter-tribal Baloch rivalry and cropping up of several armed groups in western Balochistan where hold of Sardars is minimal. These groups at their own are confronting the anti-state groups supported by foreign agencies. It is being alleged that our security forces and agencies are backing up armed groups and are also involved in missing person�s racket. Supreme Court is relentlessly pursuing missing person�s cases and is pushing the FC to recover them. Akhtar Mengal is among the complainants and talks of death squads and mutilated bodies left along the roadside. In case he finds the atmosphere uncongenial and pulls out of elections due to security concerns, it will be sad.

BLF led by Dr Allah Nazar which is most dangerous and more active in western Balochistan including Khuzdar, has got miffed over Akhtar Mengal�s decision to participate in elections. Nazar sees it as a setback to Baloch separatist agenda and has vowed to target BNP members. BLA, BRA and RAW agents are trying to disrupt elections in Balochistan. But for dismal performance of Raisani government failing to control target killers, abductors and terrorist groups, and gluttonously eating up billions of rupees allotted for development projects, secessionist movement would have withered.

Among the contesting parties that are feeling less threatened from militant groups are PML-N, PTI, JI and JUI-F, all favoring dialogue with TTP and opposing use of force and drones. Till October 30, 2012 mammoth rally held by PTI at Lahore, PML-N was taking Imran Khan for granted, but now it sees him as a formidable opponent in Punjab where the main battle will be fought. Although Imran has successfully galvanized the urban youth and will capture seats from all provinces, PML-N with its allies is in a good position to form coalition governments in the Centre, Punjab and Balochistan, and also gain sizable number of seats in KPK and Sindh. While PPP and PML-Q will become irrelevant, there will be reduction in vote bank of MQM.

(The writer is a freelance columnist and defence analyst)

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Finally, former military dictator General ® Pervez Musharraf’s egomaniacal return from his self-exile to run in the next general elections ends house-arrest in the outskirt of Islamabad—the federal capital of Pakistan he ruled for nearly a decade. It may be a rude shock for the former strong man of Pakistan, if not now—the likely events from hereon will give him a taste of his own medicine. Former army chief of Pakistan, who governed the country from 1999 to 2008, has been placed under the house arrest for his decision to put several judges including the Chief Justice of Pakistan under the house-arrest when he imposed the Emergency Rule on Pakistan in 2007. Amidst the tight security, a confident looking former military dictator appeared in the court of the area magistrate, vowing to face the challenges. The former military ruler, then having full military might behind him, is hardly ashamed of overthrowing an elected government, violating the Constitution and is suspected of his involvement in the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. He is also wanted in the killing of former Chief Minister of Balochistan Nawab Akbar Bugti.

The country is governed under the Constitution of Pakistan those who violate the Constitution deserve to stand trial in the court of law to ensure the supremacy of the Constitution of Pakistan. The former military ruler is no exception. But his return and the events thereafter suggest he considers himself above the law. His invisible power base, that paved way for his return, still reckons him a force in the political arena. He has been given a unprecedented security despite the fact he had been declared a proclaimed offender by the court of law. No proclaimed offender, in the world, is given a police escort—an act that made mockery of the judicial system, and prompted some emotional individuals to unleash assault on official security men escorting ex-dictator to the court. In a changing political scenario around the world, the dictators are brought down and taken to the task. Pakistani dictator should also stand free, fair and thorough trial for power abuses, maintaining absolute legalities based on impartiality. If in yesteryears, a dictator misused his power to clamp harsh steps against judges going against him, today the judiciary should not base the Musharraf trials on personal vendetta or a tit-for-tat. Let us make no mistake here, this is a defining moment in the history of the country; the honest and impartial trial of a dictator will, indeed, set a political tune for the future, slamming doors on the military coups. The course of the judiciary is a step in right direction but the approach of the power-corridors seams a little compromised. The man, who is absconder, should be treated like a criminal in the street not a celebrity making heroic come-back. All are equal before the law. A military dictator, who allegedly abused powers and the law at his will, should be treated like a common criminal. The lethargic approach of the Islamabad police towards Musharraf arrest on the court orders has put a question? Is there any other NRO signed under the table which is preventing firm action against the dictator. Pakistan has already seen enough of a NRO rule in last five years; further compromise on the political horizon is no more acceptable. The huge disparity in implementation of law on the poor and a dictator Musharraf is quite visible.

The law should take its course on the principle of fair-play and justice. Airy-fairy trial of the former military ruler will neither serve the interests of the nation nor bear any fruit rather will tarnish the image of the judiciary across the world. Had Pakistan conducted fair trial of the military rulers in the past or of those who conspired against the country, today the geographical formation of the state would have been different. Alas! The ruling elite, including civil or military leadership, always escapes the law and is treated as sacred cows. Thus plundering and looting of the national wealth and violation of the Constitution are going on unabated, adding woes and miseries to the masses.
Rising above the personal gains, the powers-that-be must stand behind the judiciary to ensure the rule of law and uphold the Constitution. The history of Pakistan is in the making; the superior judiciary must deliver now, giving a fair chance to the dictator to defend his misdeeds.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/46/

Two likely developments are going to impact the way things may shape in the country in the future: the treatment meted out to Gen Musharraf and whether and when the names of the media persons who have been the recipients of dole-outs from the state exchequer are made public.

There has been much speculation as to the timing of Gen Musharraf’s return to the country. One obvious factor that may have influenced this decision to come back is the absence of a political government in the country and that the interim government may not be too keen to pursue him. The other factor that may have weighed heavily in the decision to come back relates to him being the former COAS and the ‘support’ that it may understandably elicit from the military bureaucracy. Some say that he also suffered from the delusion of widespread public support and that there would be hordes of people lined up to greet him.

Two things have happened since he came back. The bubble of his so-called popularity has burst and the legal process has moved at a quick pace tightening the noose around his neck. On Thursday, his bail in the judges’ case was not renewed and the Islamabad High Court passed the orders for his arrest. Instead of surrendering after the hearing, the General injudiciously opted to flee the scene and take refuge in his Chak Shahzad Farm House with an impenetrable security cordon around it. As expected, he has since been arrested and produced before a judicial magistrate who granted a transit bail for two days. There are also reports that his residence will be declared a sub-jail. So technically, his period of incarceration has commenced. The question that arises relates to the conduct of the political government that did nothing significant over five long years to bring the General to justice. It has now fallen to the impoverished and age-ravaged lot of the interim government, with the prospect of national elections already taking a heavy toll, to administer some tough decisions. It remains to be seen whether the subsequent proceedings will follow the normal course as they would in other such cases.

More than anything else, this would depend on the role that the army would play in the long run. There have been incessant reports of institutional unease regarding his coming back and efforts are also reported to have been made to dissuade him from doing so. Some friendly countries’ role also cannot be overlooked in the matter as is now being openly certified by divergent quarters including Gen Musharraf’s aides who have clearly hinted at a ‘deal’ that facilitated his return to the country and which may also determine the shape of things in the future. Silence on the part of the top leaderships of the political parties, most notably the PPP and the PML-N, is also strengthening this perception.

While the popular demand emanating from the intelligentsia, the judiciary and those others who were directly impacted by his actions will favour a treatment that would be fully commensurate with his crimes, transgressions and misdemeanours, saner voices may be more inclined to allowing the ghost to be buried without creating any further ripples in an already divided society. Both opinions have their rationale: while the former may win by sheer numbers, the latter may stand out because of its sagacity and farsightedness. Reservations about some people sitting on judgement on the accused and others who may have collaborated with him may also have its relevance that may be difficult to hide in a battle that can be both bitter and prolonged. Overall, the General presents a test-case for all: whether to follow a course that may be emotionally more satisfying and may also settle some old scores or to choose a path that would be more in consonance with upholding Pakistan’s long-term stakes and may also be more enduring and meaningful. Already there are numerous voices demanding to make this the last act rather than the prologue. The converse may be like needlessly flogging a dead horse.

The other case that may impact the national scene is a major way is the likely revelation of names by the judiciary of media tycoons and practitioners who have been receiving state funds in the name of rendering national service. These dole-outs are covered under numerous heads and a detailed list has understandably been handed over to the bench that is hearing the petition. The list contains over two-hundred beneficiaries of the state largesse and may include many a sacred surprise. The ministry of information has divided the names into two broad categories and has recommended that the judiciary may go ahead with revealing the names listed under one head, but keep secret over one-hundred names which are listed under the second head who reportedly received these dole-outs from the ‘secret fund’. Simultaneously, there is mounting pressure on the judiciary from numerous partisan quarters that no names should be revealed at all as all recipients of these funds were performing a ‘national duty’.

Questions relating to the nature of tasks assigned to these journalists would naturally be asked. It would be grotesque to go into further details as one clearly understands the base dimensions of all these undertakings and the manner in which state funds were distributed to win political and allied support. Every government since the inception of the country has indulged in this nefarious exercise and practically everyone who is anyone in the journalism business has been the beneficiary of this largesse at some stage or the other.

But, now that the skeletons are being dragged out of the closets where they have been rotting for decades, it is essential that the names of these inveterate pontiffs who never tire of lecturing the world on moral and professional values should be brought out in the open. Already there is wild speculation as to the identity of these self-anointed ‘saints’ who have muddied many a decent character. Independent journalism being new to Pakistan, things may have been done too brashly and unprofessionally and this may be an opportunity to cleanse the stables of the muck that has accumulated over years. For the moment, the judiciary is faced with a mammoth challenge and it may not have much time to waste if it wants its credibility to remain intact which has taken a few hard hits of late.

The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at raoofhasan@hotmail.com

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....mozaXEIX.dpuf

April is almost over which means that the country’s most anticipated political event is almost upon us. Yet, an ominous silence has replaced the traditional pre-election euphoria, where thousands gather to cheer on for their leaders; big promises are made in grand rallies and historic speeches are recorded in the weeks leading up to elections.

The election of 2008, for example, was a grand political spectacle where Nawaz Sharif and late Benazir Bhutto raced from city to city to assert their political might.

Perhaps it was Benazir’s brutal assassination that has subdued the politicians now, or perhaps it is Musharraf’s trial that has pushed the election from center stage – either way, one must admit the days leading up to the elections have been engulfed in a strange political tension between various political quarters.

The roots of this tension can easily be traced to security woes of the country; in the last few weeks, almost all mainstream political parties have come under attack. The news of these attacks come in short spurts and then fades away, only to appear once more. Often these attacks are targeted towards high-profile politicians, as in the case of Bilour of ANP and Zehri of PML-N. Other times, these attacks target political workers, as in the case of various independent candidates and MQM workers.

It is feared that these attacks will escalate in their nature and magnitude as the election date draws closer. The previous election was delayed by a few weeks because it was marred by a high-profile assassination. Will Pakistan’s weak caretaker government manage to restrain the public and hold the elections if there was, God forbid, another high profile targeting? And if not, if the conspiracy theories of elections getting delayed are to be believed, what kind of political violence will be required to manage the delay of the polls Khoso’s interim government is so determined to hold?

The ANP leadership has categorically stated that the elections must not be delayed even by a second. This statement was issued even as Ghulam Ahmad Bilour was reeling from the attack on an ANP meeting. This is because the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa constituency, a waning ANP stronghold, can still get the party decisive votes in the province in the next government. Bilour has said that he would hold the COAS, the CEC, the president and the chief justice responsible if anything happened to him. It is almost reminiscent of Benazir’s statements after the October attack on her rally in Karachi where she feared for her life under Musharraf’s presidency – who, interestingly, is currently on trial for her assassination case.

The PML-N leadership too, has sensed victory in the upcoming polls and will not stand for a delayed election only because it could have a lot to lose if the polls are not held on May 11. At the same time, Nawaz Sharif and his entourage are aware that Big Brother is watching and Big Brother is dangerous. For his security, Nawaz Sharif has hired a helicopter for his transport and may be gifted 20 bullet proof vehicles from his Saudi friends for the transportation of his senior leadership. Yet, he remains conspicuously missing from public eye – unless you count the television campaign ads and the sporadic appearances the former premier makes.

PML-N has suffered damage in Balochistan with the president of the party’s chapter in that problematic province coming under an attack that left his son, nephew and brother dead. Zehri survived and fresh questions emerged: who targeted Zehri? Was it the usual ‘Baloch tribal rivalry’ that led to such a personal attack on the PML-N leader in Balochistan? The Baloch are, after all, not very fond of PML-N and Zehri is its immediate representative in the province. Or was the attack a part of some systematic targeting that is a part of the dark threat to politicians at this critical juncture?

PPP, too, has come under attack and has beefed up security and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has had to make very few public appearances as the poster boy of the PPP campaign.

However, political quarters were strangely silent in condemning the attack on ANP, while half-hearted statements stressing on ‘solutions to militancy’ were issued. So how nervous are Pakistan’s political leaders at this point, with elections so near? Will they get the votes they want while running silent campaigns?

Interestingly, election campaigning begins at least three months before the elections. So far, a lot of candidates still have not been issued tickets or are not eligible to contest in elections – there can be no campaigning if there are no candidates. Another bad sign for the elections?

The central question still remains; will the elections get delayed? Constitutionally, it is not a possibility unless a situation is created where the caretaker setup has no option but to delay the polls. The caretaker setup itself is not mandated beyond a stipulated period to remain in power and its main job is to watch over the elections. Even if it somehow manages to extend that period, it shall not be strong enough to sustain itself for long. Neither will political forces, largely led by Nawaz Sharif, stand for a delay in polls. The speed with which Nawaz Sharif handled the Qadri debacle earlier this year by unifying Punjab’s political forces in the face of an uncertain situation points to how badly Nawaz to regain his glory days. Nawaz’s biggest foe, however, is still in the President’s House and there is no knowing what tricks President Zardari may have up his sleeve to tip the political balance back in PPP’s favor.

At the same time, there is always the Army factor. Seemingly, Pakistan’s armed forces are embroiled in four crucial situations: an operation in Tirah valley and Orakzai Agency, watching over the election process, its former COAS going through a public trial and the rehabilitation process of the affectees of earthquake. Would the GHQ be able to orchestrate a behind the scenes delay in the polls while it has its hands full with the other crises it has to handle?

Simply put, May 11 and its political significance in Pakistan’s history still stands. It will take outright chaos for that date to be pushed back. So then, are delayed polls worth the damage?

The writer is Web Editor at Pakistan Today and tweets @aimamk

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....M7NQqywK.dpuf

Former general’s gauntlet has been picked up

It took Musharraf, a man with a bloated ego, just 24 hours to reconcile with the present day ground realities in Pakistan. Defying the arrest orders issued by the Islamabad High Court, he had fled from the court premises and entrenched himself in his farm house from where he issued a veiled threat of clash between the pillars of state if anybody dared to take action against him. Within hours the gauntlet was picked up by the Senate where speaker after speaker compared the treatment meted out to popular politicians by the courts and the administration to the way Musharraf was being handled. The IHC had already summoned IG Police to explain why action should not be taken against him for allowing Musharraf to escape. A major section of the media was airing similar views. The stand taken by the court, the Senate and the media forced those who matter to persuade Musharraf to surrender to the administration.

The interior ministry and police were under immense pressure to move in accordance with law. The caretaker Interior Minister was summoned by the Senate and asked why Musharraf was being kept at his farm house instead of the normal lock up. The Islamabad High Court meanwhile ordered the Secretary Interior to take action against the IG who was held responsible for letting Musharraf escape. Within hours higher police officials shifted the fugitive to Islamabad Police Headquarters which they thought would be more secure for him than the farmhouse. The former president cum army chief will be presented before an anti-terrorist court on Saturday where he will be required to prove that he had not ordered the arrest of the SC judges in 2007. It is for the ATC to bail him out or send him to lock up.

This is the first time that a former army chief has been arrested under a political dispensation (Gen. Tikka Khan’s brief incarceration as a PPP leader in protest was under Gen. Zia’s Martial Law). A lesson has thus been conveyed that all citizens irrespective of their social status are equal before law and there are no holy cows. Allowing Musharraf to stay at his luxurious farm house implied that some are more equal than others. The decision to arrest Musharraf or to keep him at the police headquarters does not bring down the image of the army. It is a decision against a former serviceman whose activities had bought bad name to the institution. By distancing itself from Musharraf’s actions and supporting the rule of law the army has improved its image. The action is in accordance with Gen Kayani’s much hailed assurance to keep army out of politics. There is a need henceforth on the part of every institution and agency of the state to work strictly within the scope and limits defined for it by the constitution. Transgressions weaken the system while adherence to the basic law strengthens it. Musharraf should henceforth cooperate with the courts instead of defying them.

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....6ZmpaAOi.dpuf