To understand political power right, and derive it from its original, we must consider what state all men are naturally in, and that is, a state of perfect freedom to order their actions, and dispose of their possessions, and persons as they think fit, within the bounds of the law of nature, without asking leave, or depending upon the will of any other man. …a law of nature to govern it, which obliges everyone: and reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind, who will but consult it, that being equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions (John Locke, Two Treatises on Government, ed. Peter Laslett. Cambridge University Press, 2000).

All progressive nations view critically their present and past and set plans and priorities for future-building. In Pakistan everything that can go wrong has surpassed the limits of reason and logic. The blunt logic tells that masses are simple and honest people being driven to unusual trends and ends of political manipulation by the few societal feudal lords traditionally occupying positions of affluence and gangsterism to determine political change and future of the nation.

Over the decades, violence is both a means and recipe for change and dictatorial disasters. No political change has happened without violence, either through political conspiracies or via direct military coups. Combined these historical factors have shaped the institutionalized corruption. In a BBC interview (4/28/2013), Imran Khan (PTI), made it known that “80% of the political rulers and governance are criminals in Pakistan.” Other political actors with the exception of Jamait-e-Islami, would not dare to talk on corruption or against it because they are the most hated leaders of political corruption that nation has ever experienced who have crippled its social fabric namely the Bhutto family, Zardari, Sharifs, Musharaf and so many others.

They stole millions from the nation to buy valuable real estates in London, Paris, Spain and Dubai. They enjoy upper-hands in all mafia type activities including bombing, killings of civilians, social-economic disruption and selling the interests of the nation to foreign masters. Because of political corruption, Pakistan is at crossroads for its hope to have life-sustaining new system of change and governance and the institutionalized corruption maintained system of political governance.

Corruption could be synonymous to human activities and is essentially outcome of ignorance, greed and mismanagement. However, under the influence of global news media communications, there is an emerging impulse of awareness of the changing realities of the landscape - masses are coming out of the slumber and questioning the incompetent and corrupt politicians. But politicians are part of the problems and cannot be part of any rational solutions. Over half of a century of continued military rule has incapacitated the body politics of the nation by dismantling all of its public institutions.

The only institution that works is the corruption and corruption across the board. One wonders, who is not corrupt in Pakistani politics? Could the institutions of corruption be terminated by the judgments of the Supreme Court alone? The people of Pakistan need to understand the problems as they are without political illusions. Pakistan faces manifold problems within and outside for its survival. The immediate one is to disconnect its affiliation with the US led bogus “war on terrorism” and to restore a sense of normalcy by facilitating a new non-partisan government under new leadership. Zardari and his gangstersim have ruined the honor and dignity of the Muslim nation.
Intellectually and morally, this is the worst experience that Pakistani nation is enduring to see PPP-MQM-Sharif’s PML-N in the political powerhouse. It is as if Pakistani nation is devoid of any rational THINKING and sense of direction for its future. As if public good is not known to public thinking.

Evil is often framed in good-looking illusions. The dichotomy goes by many interpretations. The opposite of the good would be political aims that are evil.
Truth becomes lies, justice becomes injustice, freedom becomes slavery, and peace becomes war. This is the overwhelmingly culture of Pakistani politics. Niebuhr, Reinhold (“The Children of Light and the Children of Darkness,” The American Intellectual Tradition, vol. 2 eds. David A. Hollinger and Charles Capper. Oxford University Press, 1997) offers a rational explanation of how good and evil operate in public life - the belief that there is “no law beyond the self. This is in fact, the most basic quality of evil. What is not often realized is that almost everyone claims the Good as their political ends, even when they are up to their eyeballs in the blood of innocents. The difficulty comes in separating the facts from the claims.”

Pakistan’s political-governance problems have originated from the self-centered military coups and dictatorial policies dehumanizing the politics and essentially incapacitating the nation of its creative thinking positive energies for future-making. Andrew Gavin Marshall “Imperial Eye on Pakistan- Pakistan in Pieces, Part 1 (Global Research: 5/30/2011) states:

“The war in Afghanistan is inherently related to the situation in Pakistan……… In September of 2008, the editor of Indian Defence Review wrote an article explaining that a stable Pakistan is not in India’s interests: “With Pakistan on the brink of collapse due to massive internal as well as international contradictions, it is matter of time before it ceases to exist.” He explained that Pakistan’s collapse would bring “multiple benefits” to India, including preventing China from gaining a major port in the Indian Ocean, which is in the mutual interest of the United States. The author explained that this would be a “severe jolt” to China’s expansionist aims, and further, “India’s access to Central Asian energy routes will open up.”

Andrew Gavin Marshall points out that David Kilcullen advisor to “President Obama warned in April of 2009, that Pakistan could collapse within months, and that, “We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we’re calling the war on terror now.” The adviser explained that this would be unlike the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, which each had a population of over 30 million, whereas “Pakistan has [187] million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control.”

In global context, Pakistan’s relations with America assume the top most importance. Most Pakistani political-military minds have ingrained American orientation one way or another. Some openly have sold to follow the US dictum as did Musharaf and Zardari and others indirectly for personal survival.

Currently there appears to be a mutual trust deficit as America keeps on sending daily killer drones on Pakistani civilians and interference in domestic politics. Bruce Riedel, One of Obama’s advisors on Pakistan and the War on Terrorism (“Battle for the Soul of Pakistan” 1/4/2013, Brookings Institute and Centre for Middle East Policy) calls it “2013 could be a transformative year for the country, indeed it will be the battle for the soul of Pakistan.” Bruce Riedel thinks that ‘Pakistan will be a failed state by 2030.’ He dose not spell out the truth that selfish and incompetent Pakistani Generals have degenerated the thinking culture of the nation where according to Riedel “One measure of Pakistan’s instability is that the country now has between 300 and 500 private security firms, employing 3,00,000 armed guards, most run by ex-generals.” What makes the ex-Generals to create a culture of fear and insecurity? Is it the ex-Generals or the bogus War on Terror they have perpetuated? Is it that they draw their after service gratuities from such crime-riddled adventures? He adds that “So, it is no wonder that the generals prefer to have the civilians responsible for managing the unmanageable, while they guard their prerogatives and decide national security issues. As important as the coming elections will be, the far more important issue is who will be the next Chief of Army Staff.”

Bruce Riedel warns; “The changes in Pakistan are unlikely to come peacefully and will have major implications for India and America. The stakes are huge in the most dangerous country in the world.”

Come what may, Pakistanis are a morally and intellectually conscientious people. At public conscience level, evil is known evil and good is good. If most politicians are indifferent to the prevalent public culture and believe in exploitation of the amasses, the political Change must be viewed as a vital aim and priority for the election process. To envisage ANEW Future out of the planned ideas and ideals, it is important that General Musharaf, Zardari, Sharifs, Chaudaris and so many other collaborative monsters must be held accountable in a public court of law. If this does not happen, it will be unthinkable to foresee a new beginning or a promising future.

The Election Commission appears too weak or perhaps politically indoctrinated by the affluent classes not to take proper actions against the corrupt politicians. There were 248 previous MNA’s and other provincial parliamentarians with bogus educational degrees, why they were not charged with willful deceptions and considered misfit to stand for another election?
Does the Election Commission needs democratic education and orientations?
Looking at the current events, the dead politicians are again raising slogans to serve the interests of the people of Pakistan. There are multiple political stunts being staged by the politicians. Could the dead Bhuttos-Zardaris - Sharifs and the Generals be a reference point or a changing force for the making of the future? Those educated and intelligent Pakistanis enriched with knowledge, global visions, wisdom and passion for anew and truly democratic Pakistan, could make positive things happen and make the difference with courage and imagination in devising new system of governance suitable to the Muslim nation, share expertise in problem solving and workable solutions and change management of the old neo-colonialism and obsolete system of governance maintained by the few blood suckers. Is this not what the Pakistani people should organize themselves to strive as a worthy aim and achieve it? The people of Pakistan must THINK and be prepared to struggle to chose politicians who are educated, honest and do not have criminal records, otherwise, the election will be an exercise in futility and it will be politics as usual of Evil, not Good for the common folks.

(The writer specializes in global security, peace and conflict resolution with keen interests in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations)

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/

If more than 90,000 blank National Assembly ballot papers have been seized by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police, how many tens of thousands more of these might have reached to where these destined to, is a question, highly sensitive in its nature, which both the caretaker government and the Election Commission of Pakistan have to answer. The KP police seized the fake ballot papers bundled in a car on way to Lower Dir’s constituency NA-34. The ballots did not bear stamp of ECP or the government authorization.

The consignment has been owned by the KP Jamaat-Islami whose information secretary Advocate Asrarllah said that this was a material meant for the awareness of the electorate of Dir Lower, an area which is one of most backward regions where literacy is abysmally low and women ther3e would be casting their vote for the first time. The timing of the seizure of the material is, however, not satisfying because such awareness exercises are not taken up at a stage when electioneering is ending in four days and the polling day is away by the maximum of a week. Had such an material found a month ago, no objections and doubts could have been raised. But now papers looking like ballot, regardless whether they carry serial numbers or not, is a question to which the Jamaat or anyone else cannot offer a satisfactory answer.

Police have taken two persons in custody and are interrogating them as to which organization or individual is responsible to send this highly sensitive consignment so close to polling day. The Election Commission of Pakistan is through the process of sending heavy bundles of election material including ballot papers to the areas where they will be used for the May 11 parliamentary elections. The picture so emerging around Dir and adjoining areas has placed the entire election process under a shadow of doubt because there are many more diffident areas like Dir, particularly in Balchistan, which the counterfeit stuff can not only be dispatched but also misused to benefit a particular party. How important the next elections are cannot be overemphasized; they are a transition of one democracy to another and they also promise a lot of elected representatives relatively better than the past. More than 180 million people have pinned their hopes on the would-be elected leadership which would be facing huge challenges ahead, more particularly, ending religious extremism and militancy and mitigating circumstances surfacing in the wake to unending energy crisis that has already taken a heavy toll of the national life.

The caretaker administration and the Election Commission of Pakistan owe an explanation to this bizarre happening and should clarify their position in two days failing which the people would be justified holding them responsible for the biggest electoral irregularity so far.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/46/

It certainly does not go well with a senior leader like Pakistan People’s Party Senator Raza Rabbani to blame others for the faults of PPP and then issue warnings of the threat which could cause geographical change in the region.
Speaking at a news conference in Karachi on Monday he talked of certain forces which were out to undermine the provincial autonomy and, in a way, the whole constitutional scheme. The threat of another geographical alteration in Pakistan exposes his party’s apparent new mood that has, no doubt, undergone a change in the face of some other political forces emerging in the arena set for May 11 parliamentary elections, particularly, the ‘dark horse’, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf. The PPP leadership must understand that the initiative for change which this party had taken as early as 1970 is now with others as the PPP could not make come true the dreams it had shown to the masses some four decades ago.

Rabbani’s assertion that the PPP “historically” enjoyed the support of around 38 per cent of the electorate cannot be accepted either because every nationwide poll reveal new trends and no-one can say for sure as to what would the political leaning be tomorrow. The completion of constitutional five-year term by the PPP- led coalition government can hardly be termed as a major success if one lose sight of the government’s performance during that period. The governance was hardly transparent as corruption continued to rule the roost. According to the National Accountability Bureau’s chief Admiral Fasih Bokhari, corruption cost the country was a whooping Rs7billion a day.

PPP’s own Afzal Chan, the chairperson of the National Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee, said that corruption was much higher. Conservative estimates also place it at the same size. Another bitter reality is the PPP government’s five years have resulted in cost of living rising at least to double as compared to the cost in March 2008 when PPP came to power and escalating inflation made the life of common people miserable. The same is the menace of power load-shedding that has beaten Pakistan economically hollow.

Yet Mr Rabbani, also the deputy secretary-general of the PPP, had the misplaced courage of talking the rhetoric of Sindh nationalist parties instead of sticking to the party’s previous resolve of safeguarding the federation. This must be a sorry state of affairs for a leader like Raza Rabbani who took pains to retransform the 1973 Constitution to original form ensuring federal parliamentary democracy that resolved decades old question of provincial autonomy to the satisfaction all provinces which now share around 60 per cent of the national resources. The PPP and its leadership must learn to accept new political reality and accept the latest electoral trend with an open heart rather than grumble on the mood of the people for whom that PPP has always stood up.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/46/

Party manifesto and party leaders talk of high policy matters. High sounding and wild promises are made without paying any attention to financial and administrative imperatives for delivering on these promises. All political parties are promising to turn Pakistan into a genuine welfare state, overcome electricity shortages altogether and create jobs for the youth. Nawaz Sharif is talking of running a bullet train from Karachi to Peshawar. Imran Khan would ensure that the people get jobs in Pakistan so that they do not have to go abroad for that purpose. These statements get loud applause in public meetings and thus achieve the objective of drawing popular attention. However, no leader is willing to say how he would fulfill these and other promises when Pakistan’s economy is faltering and they have no definite plan to salvage it.

Most political leaders are unable or unwilling to understand the threat of religious extremism and militancy and terrorism to Pakistan internal political coherence and economic stability. The views of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan on religious extremism and terrorism are naïve, if not deceitful, because of their desire not to lose the voters with Islamist and hardline Islamist voters that seem to increase over time in the Punjab.

There is a lot of negative propaganda against each other in the speeches of the party leaders in public meetings. The major focus of Imran Khan’s speeches is on wild promises and a sharp criticism of the PML-N and the PPP leadership. The PML-N leadership is targeting Asif Ali Zardari and Imran Khan for bitter criticism. The major target is Imran Khan who is viewed by the PMLN as cutting heavily in its traditional vote bank in the Punjab.

The PML-N also projects its last rule (February 1997-October 1999) as the golden era of governance in Pakistan and highlights the performance of the N’s Punjab government (April 2008-Marrch 2013). The PPP leadership is not on election campaign trail because of security reasons. It seems to have gone underground. This is for the first time in the PPP history that none of its leaders of national standing is engaged in public meetings and rallies. However, it has launched a massive media campaign which is partly negative, focusing on what it describes as the misdeeds of the PML-N leadership and their rule in the past. They are trying to play up the PML-N relations with the Taliban and the Punjab-based religious-sectarian groups. It has also revived the issue how the PML-N government (1997-1999) conspired through Saifur Rehman and the then Justice Abdul Qayyum of the Lahore High Court to convict Benazir Bhutto in a case in the court of that judge.

When examining election campaigning by individual candidates in electoral constituencies, the political discourse is completely different from what the party leaders talk about in their public rallies. The constituency campaign is more down-to-earth and deals with the day-to-day problems and affairs of the residents of the constituencies. The issues that get highlighted at this level include, among other things, supply of drinking water and gas to households, sewerage, waste disposal and cleanliness of streets, improvements of roads and streets, hospital in the locality or availability of medical facilities in the already existing hospitals, schools in the constituency, traffic problems, law and order, and illegal constructions on roadside etc.

The candidates make promises to address these problems. Liaquat Baloch, a Jamaat-i-Islami candidate from Lahore promised to end gas and electricity load-sheding and reduce prices of the commodities commonly needed by people. One candidate in Hafizabad who worked as “marriage-registrar” for the area, promised not to charge fee for the registration of marriage of poor people. In Kamalia, Punjab, a candidate arranged quiz competition in local schools and gave gifts to the children giving correct answers. He also distributed candies and chocolates among junior school children. His argument was that if he won the goodwill of children they would ask their parents to vote for him and that a good number of parents respected the wish of their children.

The candidates of Islamic political parties made promises on the constituency related issues and talked of introducing a “truly” Islamic order, enforce Sharia and introduce the welfare system of the earliest period of Islam.

The political parties paid attention to winning over religious hierarchy like sajjadanasheen, pirs and religious leaders of standing. Imran Khan is using a strong religious discourse. Some candidates started their election with a visit to some sufi shrine. The sisters of Imran Khan prayed at the shrine of Bibi Pak-daman (Lahore) for Imran’s electoral victory. A Christian candidate started his election campaign in the Lahore area with a church service.

The Ahmadiya community has boycotted the current election. They boycotted the earlier two elections also. They see no justification for making a separate voters’ list for their community in a joint electorate system.

The keepers of two major shrines are contesting the elections. They are Shah Mahmuud Qureshi and Makhdoom Amin Fahim. The Pir of Pagaro is heading a faction of the Muslim League but he is not contesting the elections.

There are 60 reserved seats for women in the National Assembly and 128 women reserved seats in four provincial assemblies. Women can contest on general seats as well. Over thirty women are contesting for National Assembly elections. The number of women contestants in four provincial assemblies is higher. Only a small number of women candidates are expected to win. One women candidate for a National Assembly seat used a motorcycle for travelling for campaign. A Hindu women contesting on a general National Assembly seat in Sindh came from a very humble background and has worked as a labourer. Similarly, there are reserved seats for non-Muslims in the National and Provincial Assemblies but a couple of non-Muslim are candidates on a general seat.

The allocation of party ticket to the candidates caused much problem for all political parties. A good number of those who did not get the party-ticket decided to contest the election as an independent or joined another political party. This weakened the original party, accentuating internal conflict in it. All the major political parties faced this problem.

The high flying rhetoric of the party leaders is in sharp contrast to what is important at the constituency level. The leaders get away with their wild promises because the ordinary people want to live in dreams. Nobody asks the political leaders as to what happened to their earlier promises. However, the voting behaviour is not determined exclusively by these promises.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....7yvMh1F8.dpuf

Do you think it was silly, the way the occult was consulted (Geo, Aapas Ki Baat, 5th May) to predict the outcome of the upcoming elections? You might, but it probably wasn’t as silly as what you’re otherwise used to.

Don’t get me wrong. I find the occult silly. For grown men and women to consult palmists and numerologists over any matter is atrocious. That is a view I have long maintained as the secular, scientific rationalist I aspire to be. It is also a view I have on the basis of whatever little religion I have. Regardless of how you slice it, I will find it repugnant.

But if you, dear reader, are of the view that political analysts will do a better job, then I differ there as well. Political analysts, or what passes off as them in the media, talk out of their arses.

Their “predictions” are as much shots in the dark as the guy looking into your tea leaves to tell you about your future wife.

The biggest secret that the Pakistani news media has to hide is not how financially corrupt it is. Or how beholden it is to corporate or institutional interests. The biggest secret is how very, laughably, incompetent they are. Ironically, those analysts who do have a context-based encyclopaedic constituency-to-constituency grasp, coupled with both a studied and intuitive understanding of electoral dynamics, like Geo’s Sohail Warraich and, perhaps, Iftikhar Ahmed, are very shy of “calling it” and concede of how little their understanding is.

If the reader would like to replace the tarot card reader with a smug-looking Muhammad Mallick, with his I-know-something-you-don’t look, he is free to do so.

Ever since the PPP government took over in ‘08, the pundits have been predicting a demise. Six months, said one; a year, tops, said another. They kept at it till the end of the tenure. Did the analysts lose their jobs? No. With such a track record, your average Shah Aalmi Bazaar fortune-teller, the sort that has a parrot that pulls out a card, would be out of business within a year. On the other hand, there is no, absolutely no, accountability in the media business.

For all we know, the tarot lady prediction (PML-N biggest winner; PPP second biggest, but going on to form a coalition government) just might be true. Even if she did, I hasten to add again, pull it out of thin air.

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Literally singing for his supper

Levi Strauss. Does the name ring a bell? Not to be confused with the French anthropologist Claude Levi-Strauss, Levi Strauss was a German Jew who made a killing in the California gold rush. One detail: he wasn't a gold miner. He used to make jeans for the miners; they were really comfortable to work in despite being tough enough to withstand those conditions Since it was a gold rush, there was a lot more hope than there was gold. Our man Strauss cashed in on that. He was banking not on the gold, but the hope for it. You might even be wearing one of his right now. Levi’s jeans.

This model is referred to during a lot of bubbles. A lot of people who didn’t believe in the 90s DotCom bubble did, nevertheless, set up incubators for startups and made money off them. Property traders, even the ones aware of the transient nature of a property bubble, do this. Smart money, as the great economist Keynes pointed out, follows dumb money.

Elections should be seen in that context. Those blaming Rahat Fateh Ali Khan for singing songs for both PTI and PML-N are being unfair. It is like blaming a TV channel or newspaper for running ads for both these parties. Levi Strauss, man.

As the comedian Dave Chappelle said: “I've done commercials for Coke and Pepsi. I don't give a [expletive] what comes out of my mouth. I say what it takes. Whatever it takes. If you wanna know the truth, can’t even taste the difference. All I know is, Pepsi paid me most recently so... it tastes better.”

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....SiHDz0F8.dpuf

Qadri is back, again for a while, from his cool and luxurious pastures in Canada to hector ignorant Pakistanis on what awaits them for turning their back on him. While a number of politicians have forsaken their foreign nationality to contest the elections, Qadri preferred to maintain loyalty sworn to the British Queen to receive the benefits that ensue. On his return he has told the ignorant natives that they are a lost tribe. According to him, May 11 polls would neither change the system nor the faces. Qadri had particularly grim premonitions reserved for the PTI and the MQM who decided to go for the elections – leaving him high and dry. ‘Champions of change’ would be hanging their heads in regret over the treachery practiced on them as the polls-to-come would be neither free nor transparent, he thundered. Even worse lies in store for them, predicted the prophet of doom, as full scale horse-trading will take place in the name of alliances when it comes to the formation of the next government. The cleric then posed the rhetorical question, “What a government that is a manifestation of corruption will be like”?

The people of Pakistan believe in change through the power of ballot. The country is therefore fully engaged in the election campaign caring little for what a foreign visitor might think about the activity. The three parties which are facing deadly attacks launched by the TTP and the Baloch nationalists and Hazaras who are being targeted daily by terrorists are courageously standing up to the gruesome challenge. A new generation of voters which had been mostly apolitical is out canvassing for the party of its choice. The election results would pass a judgment on the performance of the governments that ruled at the center and the provinces during the last five years. This would be a lesson for the newcomers.

The electoral system has undergone major reforms. The exercise is being supervised by an independent and powerful ECP and overseen by a consensus caretaker setup. Yes, there still are shortcomings in the system but these will hopefully be removed by the next Parliament. This is how democracy slowly broadens its scope, opening up new possibilities precedent by precedent. Tahrul Qadri is striking a discordant note which few would care to pay heed to. Outside his cult he will find few supporters. People facing problems listen to the leaders who share the weal and woe with them rather than to those who jump the ship in difficult situations. On the day of the election, Qadri’s proposed protests are likely to go unnoticed.

- See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013....vsCbIosS.dpuf

Recent terror attacks on rallies and meetings of 'liberal' and leftist parties, like the Pakistan Peoples' Party, the Muttahia Qaumi Movement and the Awami National Party, have restricted their election campaigns, while all right wing parties are holding public meetings more freely, without much fear.
It may divide political parties and the nation among two factions, pro-and anti-Taliban groups, in the run-up to the general elections scheduled for May 11.

As the three parties are trying to make the most of the situation and garner sympathy votes through TV ads and press statements against the Taliban and the parties which support them, their critics blame them for the current law and order situation in the country. They say the Taliban had threatened to disrupt the election process and they have not spared any party including the Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the right wing Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the Jamaat-i-Islami and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf of Imran Khan, which have a soft corner for the Taliban and oppose Pakistan's role in the US war on terror.

Though public rallies of the PPP, the MQM and the ANP have been more frequently attacked by militants, yet other parties have not been left alone. A remote-control bomb targeted PML-N Balochistan chief's convoy in Khuzdar district and at least four people were killed, including the son of the provincial chief of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Sanaullah Zehri. The blast also claimed the lives of his brother, nephew and guard. Zehri, however, remained unharmed. The blast was followed by heavy firing. More than two dozen people were injured including PML-N workers, relatives and Zehri's security staff.

A bomb blast also targeted an election office of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) near Peshawar's Panchgai road. The time device planted outside the PTI office did not cause any loss of life but it damaged the office and few adjacent shops.

A blast occurred near the convoy of a Jamaat-i-Islami candidate from NA-39 in Hangu district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. JI candidate Raj Mohammad survived the attack. The militants also fired eight rockets at an election rally of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) in Harnai district of Balochistan. At least 10 JUI-F workers were injured in the incident. Haji Mohammad Hashim Shahwani, JUI-F's candidate for PB-30 constituency, escaped an assassination attempt when his convoy was attacked by a remote-control bomb in Mach district of Balochistan. Six people, including a Levies constable, were injured in the attack. The vehicles were also attacked by a hand-grenade which was followed by an exchange of fire. The incidents show that the militants have expanded their operation even against their sympathizers and supports.
The assertion by the PPP, the MQM and the ANP that national and international establishments are trying to bar moderate and liberal parties from the election process also seems to be far-fetched. It looks like an attempt to attract sympathy votes instead of admitting their failure to devise an effective counter-terrorism mechanism and strategy when they were in power. Terrorism was on the rise even before elections and former ministers, government officials and security experts had warned that terrorists would try to disrupt the poll process to create chaos in the country. Whether it was a lack of the political will or the negligence of the former government and the law enforcement agencies, the nation is facing the fallout.

In the Punjab, almost 70 candidates of banned religious organisations are contesting elections. It is largely peaceful as compared to the other three provinces, where terror attacks occur on a daily basis. It is not a coincidence that not a single terror incident has taken place so far in the Punjab. The PPP has not held a single rally in any province. It even cancelled a planned gathering to mark the death anniversary of its founding leader, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

In Peshawar, the Taliban sent letters to ANP workers and leaders to remove party flags and banners from their houses and offices or face consequences. Too much blood has been shed already, with at least 48 killed and over 200 injured since April 21. The MQM and the ANP have already lost several party workers in few weeks. The situation will eventually deepen resentment among other provinces against the Punjab and the situation would worsen after the polls. The new government will have to allay fears and mistrust of the other provinces against the Punjab to run its business smoothly. Following a meeting of the corps commanders, it has been decided by the military top brass that 50,000 troops will be posted throughout the country. In restive Balochistan, where nationalist forces have also been involved in violence, the deployment of 15,000 military and paramilitary forces has begun at the request of provincial authorities. It will be the biggest challenge for the law enforcement agencies to bridle terrorists in Balochistan because of its vast tracts and porous borders.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is attacking the liberal and moderate parties regularly, as it may be its agenda, but it was the responsibility of the parties which had been part of the former government, both in three provinces and in the Centre for five years, to make policies against the impending crisis. The terror attacks have created solidarity among the parties but it is of little use now. They should now encourage their voters to frustrate the evil designs of the militants by going to polling stations on election day. If the parties come to power again, they will have to make effective laws to curb terrorism for their own safety and security of the nation. On the other hand, the right-wing parties, which have a soft corner for the militants, should realise that the Taliban would not spare them as they are working on their own agenda. Their challenge to the state would not abate even if religious and right wing parties come to power as the Taliban only consider their own brand of Islam right and try to impose it on others through the use of force and violence.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/

Election 2013 has been variously described. But the most telling and the most factual is its characterization as a youth election. According to the facts and figures released by the Election Commission of Pakistan, as compared to the past, the youth as a block of voters is the most dominant in the electoral calculus.

What do the figures say?

Nearly 30 million young voters or 34.68 per cent of the total are below 30 years of age. Out of this cluster of young voters, those falling in the 18-25 age group are 16,885,102 in number or 19.77 per cent. They comprise a large number of young boys and girls, mostly college going, who will use their ballots for the first time in their life. The next age group comprising voters of 26-30 years are 19.77 per cent of the total and their number is 12,736,892.The next most important group of voters in the 31-40 age group number 20,139,725 or 23.58 per cent of the total.

Put simply, the voters in the age group 18-40 years constitute 58.26 per cent of the total votes on the electoral list. Now, that makes a difference. This was not the case in previous elections when relatively older people dominated the scene. Demographically, Pakistan is a young nation. The youth now comprise about 65 per cent of the total population, and this is reflected in the voters list as well.

Since Imran Khan appeared on the scene, the youth factor in Pakistan politics has assumed new importance. The PTI has been engaged in wooing the support of the young lot, particularly of the 18-25 age group. PTI's election strategy has been to mobilize the youth and it has been quite successful in its efforts. The Punjab government's laptop scheme was in direct response to the PTI's growing appeal to the youth of Pakistan. According to analysts, the youth of Pakistan will play a decisive role in the May 11 general elections for the first time because of their exceptional massive mobilization done by key political parties.

The role to be played by 34.68 per cent voters below 30 years of age is especially important in view of the fact that they don't have rigid and fixed political affiliations like their elders. Various surveys done by national and international organizations show that the young people are frustrated with the existing state of affairs in the country and are looking for a new leadership to rescue the country from the political and economic morass it has fallen into.
A recent survey of the youth of Pakistan and of their views, ideas and aspirations by the British Council Pakistan made some interesting findings. The survey said that because of an overwhelming sense of drift in national affairs and growing corruption, pessimism has become a defining and dominant trait of the new generation whose members think that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

When the youth were asked about the most important events in their lifetimes, they didn't point towards a positive event or collective achievement. Rather, it was the earthquake, floods and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto that they mentioned. A quarter of all young people surveyed were directly affected by violence, or had witnessed a serious violent event (in rural areas the incidence was twice that of urban areas). The findings also showed that young people are worried about jobs and lack of economic opportunities. They are frustrated about rising prices and inflation and see a bleak future ahead of them. They believe that democracy as a system has failed and the current crop of politicians has not been able to deliver. For this reason a majority of young people surveyed favoured the establishment of Islamic Sharia to ensure socio-economic justice in the country.

An important factor that might swing the election one way or the other and cause a change in the result is the voter turnout, which is expected to be considerably higher this time in view of the elaborate campaigning in certain parts of Pakistan. In previous elections, the voter turnout has been around 40 per cent. But this time around, voters' participation in the polls may be higher, as much as 50-60 per cent, especially in the Punjab, compared to other areas of Pakistan due to the relative peace prevailing in the majority province.
The British Council survey results show that of 25 million registered voters between the ages of 18 and 29 years, 40 per cent are certain to vote, whereas 21per cent are undecided. This means that anyone who can manage to bring out the undecided voters on the polling day will have a significant advantage over others. Just a 10 per cent increase in youth turnout would mean an additional 2.5 million more votes on election day, which may be decisive for marginal constituencies.

According to the survey, in Pakistani families across the board, the most educated are those below the age of 30, giving a unique opportunity for parties to address them who may look beyond traditional voting parameters. Most young people also believe political parties haven't done enough to communicate with them. In this election if politicians are to court the young they will need to reach out to them as a separate bloc, give them a strong economic agenda, address their feelings of insecurity and talk convincingly about values.

The middle class which constitutes 8 per cent of the rising generation is committed to democracy and think corruption is a major issue. They are increasingly looking for opportunities outside Pakistan, a quarter of them wanting to emigrate permanently as per the survey, marginalised rural labourers, constituting 15 per cent of the youth population surveyed, are worried about jobs and prices. A majority of them are likely to vote, but their decisions are based on family bonds and the influence and power of the local landlords. The survey found that the urban, highly educated and ambitious young people are conservative in outlook and believe they can change Pakistan. As for women voters, they are now more politically conscious than before. According to the British Council survey, anyone who can reach them politically can potentially secure a big dividend because so many are undecided when it comes to voting, and crucially when it comes to who to vote for.

It appears from the election campaign of various parties that PTI has been specially focusing on the youth and women voters. As far as the newly enrolled 35 million voters are concerned, PTI's strategy gives it an edge over other parties.

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The elections of 2013 are radically different in many respects from the previous elections of Pakistan, especially because for the first time nearly more than 50 per cent of around 85 million total voters comprise of young men and women between the ages of 18-40 and whose participation in the electoral process, particularly the voting, would determine the future of the country.

Of these young voters, nearly three million constituting 34.68 per cent are below 30 years of age of which most would be voting for the first time. This is a healthy sign for a nascent and stumbling democracy like Pakistan, that most of its voters are young.

When these lines appear in print, the young voters would have played part of their role by participating in the process. It is expected that if a sizable portion of the young voters cast their votes, it would change the entire complexion of the elections and their results. According to different estimates and surveys, like the one by Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), a private organization focusing on elections in Pakistan, this time around 65 per cent of voters intend to cast their ballots. This is something surprising and heartening. The results of such estimates and surveys can be empirically observed as people particularly young men and women are taking a proactive role in electioneering, at least in the two provinces of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Surprisingly, even in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Pashtun areas of Balochistan like Zhob and Loralai, young men are fully geared and taking part in electioneering. This is surprising because in KP and FATA the security situation is adverse, where two of the previously most popular political parties, the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) are facing threats and could not fully electioneer due to repeated terrorist attacks or threat of attacks on their rallies, candidates and supporters.

Keeping in view the participation of the young voters in electioneering, it is anticipated that they would come out in large numbers to cast their ballots in favour of parties and candidates of their choice. We will not have any gauge to know how many voters in the age group of 18-40, or for that matter, any age group participated in what manner even after polling. However, if the turnout would be more than the average turnout of all elections in Pakistan, that is around 48 per cent, it would mean that young voters have played their role. Because the increased turnout would reflect voting by young men and women.

It is due to the importance of new and young voters that political parties are making their best efforts to woo these voters. The doling out of laptop computers by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government in the Punjab and the ANP government in KP during the last year of their five-year tenure, was aimed at winning the young voters to their side. The PML-N and the ANP governments only realized the significance of the young voters after the October 18, 2011, mammoth public meeting of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, in which a huge number of young men and women participated. In fact, the credit for the alacrity with which the young men and women presently are taking part in the electoral process goes to PTI chief Imran Khan, who since long has been focusing on the youth and brought them into the political arena and, ultimately, into the electoral fray.

As far as the role of the young voters in the electoral process of Pakistan is concerned, the recent comprehensive report by the British Council Pakistan throws light on the process. The report titled Next Generation Goes to the Ballot Box provides an insight into how well young people feel they have fared since the country last went to the polls. It explores what issues are most important to young people and how this will drive their voting behaviour. The report is based on surveys and secondary data analysis of open source material. The key findings of the report are quite interesting.

The foremost finding of the report is that "Pakistan is transforming". This is empirically ascertainable. However, it is transforming negatively rather than positively despite the fact that there are some trends which are positive, but the lack of visionary leadership could not marshal these potentially positive trends. For instance, young men and women want to participate in the key decision-making of the country by joining politics but they do not have the forums and the platforms which they can use to assume leadership and decision-making roles. Another important finding of the report is that "the next generation has growing social and cultural influence." This may not be strange because of the commensurate strength of the young population in the entire Pakistani population, which is quite significant. According to different estimates, around 63 percent of the Pakistani population is young. This young population may have strong social and cultural influence but it needs to be understood that Pakistan does not have a rich political, democratic and electoral culture. In this context, if a sizable portion of the young population is taking part in the electioneering and voting, then this influence would shortly be seen in the realm of politics. In fact, the participation of young men and women could transform the political culture of Pakistan and create a new political environment.

The report finds that "insecurity hits young people hard." This, indeed, is the case as we indicated above. The young men and women may escape the vicissitudes of physical insecurity and may be better poised to resist it than other age-groups but for them escaping the impact of economic, political, social and human insecurity is well-nigh impossible. Because young people are physically strong but at the same time they are economically impoverished, politically and socially marginalized. The best way to overcome these insecurities is to empower them. As successive governments have failed to empower the youth of Pakistan, the latter have taken upon themselves. Again, elections and participation in the electoral process is the best and the cheapest means for anyone, particularly the marginalized communities and sections of society, to get themselves empowered. It seems that a large section of Pakistani youth has realized this and therefore actively engage in the electoral process. A closer look at the history of empowerment and democratization would reveal that empowerment has not come as a result of concessions by the power-holders, but by the active and continuous struggle by the disempowered. Enfranchisement itself has been an initial and major milestone towards become fully empowered and has served as the stepping stone for economic and social empowerment.

The report also finds that "young women face very high levels of exclusion." This is, indeed, the case which is really unfortunate. While mostly the male family and clan members are responsible for marginalization and, in some respects, ostracization of their women but the latter are also very much responsible for their pathetic social and economic conditions. The easiest way of empowering women and curtailing their social exclusion is through their political participation or taking part in elections. This realization seems to be getting stronger among women, and even the more conscientious and educated male population of the country. Consequently, a large number of women are taking part in the direct electoral contest, while thousands took part in electioneering. For instance, a woman from Bajaur in FATA, Badam Zari, made history by contesting on a general seat for the National Assembly. Her argument was that as the men had failed to bring peace and solve issues of the community, it compelled her to jump into the electoral fray, which has always been the exclusive domain of men in the tribal areas.

The most alarming finding of the report is that "young people are losing confidence in the democratic system." Again, if the turnout of voting in the elections of 2013 remains high, it would negate this finding to a great extent. However, the more participation may also mean that the youth has decided to change the system and this would itself restore their confidence in the democratic system.

The number of young voters and the findings of the above-mentioned report give interesting insights into the changing trend among the young Pakistani population and their impact on the country's political culture. Whatever the outcome of the elections, it is important that the increasing level of participation of young men and women, like in any other activity, has its impact and this would be obvious immediately and in the years ahead.

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At this point in time it is very difficult to foretell which of the three leading parties would be in a position to form the federal and provincial governments after the May 11 elections. However, from the way things appear now, it seems that it would be extremely difficult for a single party to form the federal government.

Again, the leading seat-getting party would depend on independent winning candidates and smaller parties to form the governments. At the moment, the real electoral contest is between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) alliance having a realistic chance of winning a couple dozens of seats each in Sindh and the Punjab. Now which party is going to form government is anybody's guess.

Nevertheless two of the three main parties - the PTI, the PML-N, the PPP - will have to join to form the next government at the centre. Insofar as the coalition between the PTI and the PML-N is concerned, it seems out of the question. Although, there is nothing out of the question in politics, as it is known as the "art of the possible," but keeping in view the adamant stand of the PTI Chief Imran Khan, regarding the PML-N top leadership, concentrated in the family of Nawaz Sharif, it would be extremely difficult for both to form a coalition government. Because for a person like Imran Khan, it would be well-nigh impossible to renege on his promises that he would not enter into a coalition government with status quo forces.

Already Khan has said that if in case his party failed to win a majority, he would like to sit in the opposition instead of entering into an alliance with the status quo forces. The PML-N in its very complexion and composition, irrespective of Mian Shahbaz Sharif's occasional recitation of verses of revolutionary Pakistani poet Habib Jalib, is a conservative and reactionary party. The Sharifs believe in piecemeal changes, which is a typical stand of classical conservatives, whereas the PTI is for drastic and radical changes. Although the PML-N may go to any extent to get power but for the PTI it is extremely difficult to give up its stance. This also negates the general perception that the PTI is a right-wing part. This perception has been made by ill-informed and poorly-educated Pakistani experts and analysts, who fail to understand the real dynamics of right-wing, left-wing politics and conservative, liberal and revolutionary politics and parties.

Thus, if the PTI argues that it stands for change and, in fact, the whole politics of the party revolves around overthrowing the status quo then one cannot call it a right-wing or status quo party. As far as the alliance between the PML-N and the PPP is concerned, this is possible as both the parties have a precedent of forming a coalition. However, this would depend on how many seats the PPP would win. For instance, if the PML-N wins around 80 of the 272 directly elected seats and the PPP gets 40 seats, there is a possibility they together form a coalition. The PPP would like to form a coalition with the PML-N, because in this way it would continue to enjoy power, although this time as a junior coalition partner unlike 2008, when it was the major coalition partner.

The PML-N would be favourably disposed towards the PPP because President Asif Ali Zardari would remain president till October this year, and would like to make a coalition government with the PML-N, as he can then, somehow, manipulate things to get himself re-elected as president. However, remaining in the presidency would depend on the number of seats which the PPP will win in the national and provincial assemblies, which together with the Senate, where the PPP has a majority, forms the electoral college for the office of the country's president. If the PML-N and the PPP form the next government, then they would have no difficulties in forming a coalition government in the Punjab. Whereas, the PPP may not require any other party to form the government in Sindh.

However, the coalition between the PML-N and the PPP would result in the marginalization of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) as well as the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) as well as independents. Although the PTI Chief Imran Khan has declared that if his party gets the majority, he would not take oath as prime minister from President Zardari because he does not consider him a genuine president. Still, he has not ruled out, in unequivocal words, forming a coalition government with the PPP. In fact, the Sharif brothers of the PML-N have been charging, during their electioneering that Imran and the PPP-PML-Q have an underhand understanding, but could not substantiate the allegation. A coalition between the PTI and the PML-Q is very possible, provided the PTI clinch 70-plus seats in the National Assembly. The PTI has the potential of winning the said number of seats. Once the PTI has 70-plus seats, it would be a serious contender to lead the coalition government, which in this case would be with the PPP.

However, to form a solid government the alliance would need the inclusion of most of the independent winning candidates into their fold as well as parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Seeing the PTI leading the coalition, the JI will not have any qualms to sit in the cabinet along with the PPP. On the other hand, having the PPP in the government may also encourage the MQM to join the coalition despite deep animosity between Imran and the MQM. Because the MQM can ill-afford to remain out of the government. In case the PTI and the PPP form a coalition government at the centre, they would not be in a very good position to form the government in the Punjab. However, the PTI and the PPP, keeping in view their deep resentment towards the PML-N, both would try their utmost to muster the requisite support to form the Punjab government.

This would be critical for the future of the PTI as well as the PPP because, without having the Punjab under their belt, the national government would be weak. On the other hand, the PTI-PPP coalition would result in smooth sailing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) where the PTI is all set to emerge as the single largest party in the provincial assembly elections. Even in case the PML-N and the PPP would form a coalition, the PTI would be in a position to form the government with the support of the independents and the JI. In Balochistan, no single party is expected to emerge as a majority party. In case the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and the PTI win a sizable number of seats in the Pashtoon belt and the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) in the Baloch belt, they could come together to form the provincial government. These parties, if together, would try their utmost to keep out the JUI-F from the government. However, in any case a member of the BNP-M is all set to become the Chief Minister of Balochistan. Thus, as things appear now, either the PML-N and the PPP would form the next coalition government, or the PTI and the PPP, as there are slim chances of the PTI forming a government with the PML-N.

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