A fruitless visit

BESIDES the reiteration of fraternal sentiments and an expression of wishes for closer ties, the prime minister`s two-day visit to Iran produced little of substance. The greatest disappointment was over the gas pipeline project. No joint statement was issued, and all that we have is the signing of eight memoranda of understanding on subjects such as the extradition of prisoners. The only reference to the gas pipeline was spiritual leader Ali Khamenei`s emphasis on going ahead with bilateral projects, including the pipeline. As was expected, the ayatollah minced no words, and blamed America and `other countries` for trying to create a rift between his country and Pakistan. That the ayatollah thought Pakistan had succumbed to US pressure was discernible when he asked Mr Nawaz Sharif not to wait for `permission` from other governments to encourage relations between Iran and Pakistan.

Conceived more than two decades ago,the gas pipeline has yet to see the light of day. Initially, the pipeline was to carry gas across Pakistan to India, but New Delhi pulled out of the project in 2009, delivering a blow from which the project hasnotyetrecovered,eventhough energy-starved Pakistan needs gas desperately. In March 2013, the project aroused optimism when then presidents Asif Ali Zardari and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated the construction of the Pakistani part of the pipeline. But again the project ran into difficulties, largely because Islamabad gave in to pressure. A new chapter appeared to be beginning in relations between the two neighbours when Mr Sharif declared after becoming prime minister in June 2013 that the project was on and was likely to be completed by the end of 2014. That has not happened, and as the outcome of his Iran visit shows, we should perhaps sing a requiem for the project.

Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to think of Iran-Pakistan relations solely interms of the pipeline. As neighbours, the two countries have common concerns and need to deepen understanding on such issues as post-America Afghanistan, the change in the Middle East`s power equilibrium in the wake of the TehranWashington thaw, the strategic relations developing between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the Syrian civil war, terrorist groups` activities on the borders, and bilateral trade, which has plummeted to $1bn because of US-led sanctions against Iran. Islamabad must assure Tehran that relations with no state will be at Iran`s expense, and that it will pursue a policy of non-interference in other countries` affairs a point emphasised by Mr Sharif when he recently addressed Pakistani envoys in the Middle East.

This policy must be pursued in earnest and in a manner that satisfies Iran without jeopardising Pakistan`s ties with the Gulf monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia. The two governments must also think deeply about the kind of measures needed toincrease bilateraltrade.

Afghan crisis: no end in sight

WITH the Afghan security and political transition in a state of suspended animation both remaining candidates in the presidential race have pledged to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US quickly once in office, but it could be several months yet before the victor of the two-stage election is determined other problems continue apace, and, consequently, look all the more difficult to resolve. With the annual so-called spring offensive of the Afghan Taliban under way, the ability of the Afghan national security forces both police and army to hold of f against the Taliban in huge swathes of the country is again under scrutiny. A report by the International Crisis Group has poured predictable fuel on the fire by highlighting the growing security woes in areas where the central government`s presence and reach is less visible and effective. As ever, the view of Afghanistan is either the glass half full relatively normality in the cities and areas where Kabul`s presence is ef fective or half empty deteriorating security, without quite a Taliban takeover, in areas where Kabul`s reach is questionable or a non-issue.

Nevertheless, there is littledisagreement about the most desirable way ahead: stepped-up reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban, closer cooperation between the Afghan and Pakistani states on cross-border movement of militants and an Afghan government that improves governance and service delivery enough to win the support of the people in the battle against Taliban propaganda. The problem is that reconciliation appears all but stalled, a result perhaps of the now-lame duck President Hamid Karzai trying to micromanage the process instead of letting the High Peace Council stay in charge.

Will it now even be possible to restart, or rejuvenate, the reconciliation process before the end of the year, given the Taliban will have little incentive to do so in the middle of foreign troops exiting, with the new Afghan government taking time to settle in? The hope and in Afghanistan so much always seems to rest on hope is that the incoming administration and regional and international players are thinking ahead about what needs to be done on the reconciliation front. But such advanced forethought has not exactly been a hallmark of any side`s Afghan policy so far.

MQM chief`s documents

A FAIR bit of confusion surrounds MQM chief Altaf Hussain`s quest to obtain a new Pakistani ID card and passport. While the director general immigration and passports told a Senate standing committee on Monday that no passport request for the Muttahida supremo had been received by the interior ministry, the MQM has cried foul, accusing the government of dillydallying on the matter. One MQM senator went as far as to say that unless Mr Hussain was issued a passport, the party would shut down Karachi for a month. Even if that threat was made in the heat of the moment, it surely must have sent a wave of apprehension rippling across the metropolis. After all, Karachi residents know the kind of damage a day`s unscheduled shutdown can cause to the economy and to everyday routines, not to mention the violence that usually accompanies strikes, shutdowns and days of `mourning`. The cumulative harm a month`s shutdown can cause to Pakistan`s largest city and economic hub can only beimagined. What makes the statement all the more chilling is the fact that the MQM can and does shut down the city whenever it deems fit. Hence party leaders need to be careful when making such statements.

Coming to the root of the controversy, if Mr Hussain has applied for fresh documents the MQM claims he has completed the necessary paperwork with Nadra then his application should be processed. There are claims that rules were bent or broken to facilitate the Muttahida chief, as equipment to capture his fingerprints was reportedly hauled to the MQM Secretariat in London.

Such arrangements are only supposed to be available for the elderly or infirm. If irregularities were committed in the process, the government needs to investigate, though Mr Hussain should not be denied his documents. Whether the MQM chief really does intend to return home if he is issued a new passport after conducting his political activities from the British capital for over two decades is anyone`s guess.

Dawn, June 14th, 2014

Anti-democracy move



DEMOCRACY is in trouble again, or so it seems. At least if the words and illogic of the anti-democrats, even certain ‘liberals’, are to be believed. Somehow, a year after one of the country’s most open and competitive elections, an event that heralded a first-ever transition from one democratically elected government to the next, democracy is the problem again. Why? To hear the anti-democrats and supporters of would-be saviours tell it, the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif in particular, have failed the nation. Unless they are removed — and, according to sections of the media, this much-needed ouster would even be welcome if undertaken unconstitutionally — Pakistan will collapse. This is nonsense. Pakistan is in no danger of collapsing — and certainly in no danger of collapsing because of democracy. Quite the opposite: an unconstitutional move to oust the government at this stage of the transition to democracy would almost certainly herald a return to security policies that could seriously threaten the integrity of Pakistan.

Cut through the obfuscation and lies being peddled at the moment against democracy and the so-called sins of the Sharif-led government are threefold. One, Mr Sharif had the temerity to believe a former dictator should be put on trial for his crimes against the Constitution. While it would have been far more preferable had Pervez Musharraf been proceeded against for the coup of 1999 rather than the emergency of 2007, the simple reality is that much of the pushback against Mr Sharif began with his attempt to apply the law and the Constitution to the military. Second, Mr Sharif has resisted a partial military operation in North Waziristan against anti-state militants preferring instead to focus on talks with the outlawed TTP. While criticism can be and has been heaped on Mr Sharif’s approach to tamping down the militancy threat, it is also true that he did not conceive of the idea of talks — the military did. Even now, the security establishment has peace deals in place with militant groups that can and have attacked Pakistan. Third, Mr Sharif has since taking office consistently talked of better relations with India. But who, other than that security establishment with its dated views and self-serving hostility, can really argue that an improvement of ties with India is not in Pakistan’s best interests?

The problem then is not that democracy has once again endangered Pakistan but that the democrats are seeking to make different choices to the anti-democrats — and the old order is unable to digest that reality. In such an environment, the advice of veteran politician Mahmood Khan Achakzai ought to be listened to very closely. Speaking in the National Assembly on Thursday, Mr Achakzai called for the democratic forces to unite against the anti-democrats’ machinations. Will the PML-N stop needlessly isolating itself even from well-meaning potential allies?



Post-attack mudslinging

IN the aftermath of the Karachi airport assault, instead of looking inwards and trying to identify the loopholes that made the debacle possible, the federal and Sindh governments are indulging in mudslinging. This, unfortunately, is in line with officialdom’s conventional response after every disaster: rather than bravely accept blame and promise to learn from their mistakes, our politicians try their best to shift blame elsewhere and refuse to learn. Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan has blamed the Sindh government for failing “to put in place appropriate measures to avert the attack”, after Islamabad had issued several warnings in this regard. As reported in this paper, the interior minister had apparently written to the Sindh government in March warning it about security loopholes at the old airport, yet the Sindh authorities “paid no heed” to the warning signs. In reaction, the Sindh information minister defended his administration’s record, saying only Sindh was confronting the Taliban.

Before this war of words further obfuscates matters, let us clarify a few things. Firstly, the responsibility of securing airports is the job of the Airport Security Force, a federal body coming under the aviation division. Before the interior minister lashes out at the Sindh administration, he and his colleagues in the federal government must first ascertain whether the ASF personnel had the training and equipment to thwart an assault of such devastating proportions. Consider, for example, the claim that security personnel at Karachi airport were using ‘fake’ bomb detectors. Training and equipping the ASF is the federal government’s responsibility, no matter what excuses are made. Regarding the claim that the Sindh government did nothing to plug the holes around the airport’s periphery, again, this is the prime responsibility of the ASF and the Civil Aviation Administration, also a federal body, which is explicitly tasked with airport management and upkeep of infrastructure. Coming to the Sindh government’s role, the provincial authorities were indeed lax in their ability to keep track of militant activities in Karachi. Counterterrorism is a complex undertaking, requiring harmony amongst the military and civilian intelligence agencies and the police in order to deliver. Was this seamless convergence in place between the Sindh police, home department and intelligence agencies? It is these tricky questions the federal and Sindh governments need to address rather than criticising each other. Instead of politicking, maturity is required from all stakeholders to jointly tackle the monster of militancy.



Off the ECL

A COURT order has been handed down, but the speculation continues unabated. On Thursday, the Sindh High Court finally adjudicated on retired Gen Pervez Musharraf’s petition against the placing of his name on the Exit Control List — he is on bail facing charges of high treason — and struck down the federal government’s order in this regard. Nevertheless, the former military dictator will now have to wait for two weeks to find out whether he can actually travel abroad, since the court suspended the operation of its judgement for this length of time. This allows the federation to file an appeal in the Supreme Court. As a result, the ‘will he, won’t he flee abroad never to return?’ question that has exercised the minds of many since the charges against Mr Musharraf were framed continues to be asked.

As the court observed, though, courts and countries are not entirely helpless if someone facing criminal or civil charges has to be compelled to return to answer for his actions. The suspicion that Mr Musharraf will try and evade the charges against him has been around since he was granted bail. However, so far, matters have played out otherwise. But more than that, the government itself has set the grounds for the applicability of whatever decision the courts saw fit to hand down in the matter. Back in April, when Mr Musharraf approached the federal government about the issue of his name being on the ECL, the Ministry of Interior informed him that it was “unable to accede to his requests” given the “record pronouncements of the superior courts on the cited subject....” In other words, the hot potato was passed on to the courts. Now that the Sindh High Court has reached a decision, there is little point in dragging the matter on further. However, should Mr Musharraf decide to go abroad to see his ailing mother, guarantees should be required that he will return to face the charges for which he has been indicted.

June 19th, 2014

Preserving unity
TUESDAY’s unfortunate clashes in Lahore and the MQM’s strike call, fortunately withdrawn, for Karachi are exactly the kind of incidents and reactions we do not need at a time when the armed forces have gone into action against terrorist sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency. So far, the nation’s response to Operation Zarb-i-Azb has been overwhelmingly positive. In fact, parties long opposed to the operation came quickly round to acknowledging the TTP negotiators’ obduracy during the failed talks and upheld the decision to finally crack down on those who have given the country only death and demolition. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf dropped its opposition to the military option, saying his party would stand by the army. The change in the Jamaat-i-Islami’s policy was even more radical: it repudiated its past stance and asked the insurgents to shun terrorism and join the political process. Thus, ignoring the grumblings of some small parties, the country seems more or less united on how the terrorists should be dealt with.

Unlike previous military operations — as those in Malakand and Bajaur — and the occasional punitive bombings, Operation Zarb-i-Azb has wider strategic aims and seeks to restore the state’s writ by wiping out the militants’ hub in North Waziristan. A possible backlash has been taken into consideration, with the high command deciding to deploy the army in Islamabad, Karachi and other cities. However, the very dimensions of the operation make exacting demands on the government, for the latter must keep the people informed of the progress of the war and let them know who exactly the enemy is. Will the operation take in its sweep terrorists of all hues — foreign militants, various TTP factions and the breakaway Sajna group — or will there still be a soft corner for the ‘good’ Taliban? So far, the nation has been given very little information about what is happening in the agency and how much ground has been covered by the troops. The danger is that an information gap could be exploited by the militants, and irresponsible sections of the media could lend credence to rumours by printing and broadcasting them.

It is also important that the unity now being demonstrated by the people is not allowed to erode because of short-sighted political goals or the temptation to upstage one political party or the other. True, in Pakistan some distance has yet to be covered before politicians realise that a united front will serve as a bulwark against any attempt to undermine a representative system. At the same time, the army too must realise that the support for the operation could prove short-lived, unless the clean-up operation is thorough. Given the existential threat that looms, the sooner our political and military leadership understand this, the greater our chances will be of prevailing over the forces of obscurantism.



Polio debacle
SINCE the World Health Organisation advised in early May that restrictions be placed on people travelling from countries that export the polio virus, notable amongst them Pakistan, most of the world has shown grace in allowing us time to clean up our act. There has been some activity on this count, with the government having imposed from June 1 a travel ban on people not able to produce a government-issued vaccination certificate and the setting up of vaccination booths at international airports, etc and — on paper, at least — a renewed resolve to overcome the myriad challenges that lie in the path of improving matters. Most recently, on Sunday, Islamabad hosted an international conference on polio eradication that was attended by about 50 clerics from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Nigeria. Also present were representatives of the International Islamic Fiqh Academy, Al Azhar University and King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah. According to the press release, Minister of State for National Health Services, Saira Afzal Tarar, had sought the guidance and aid of clerics in eradicating polio.

Given the situation, there is no doubt that the step must be appreciated. Other than plain misinformation or the lack of awareness, much of the resistance in parts of Pakistan to having the vaccine administered to children has been the result of the manner in which the anti-polio campaign has been made contestable on religious grounds by extremist elements. Nevertheless, there is great irony in Ms Tarar regretting that Pakistan remains one of the world’s only three polio-endemic countries (the others being Afghanistan and Nigeria). The fact is that even at this critical juncture, and notwithstanding efforts such as vaccination booths and conferences, nowhere in evidence is the urgency and tight coordination among governmental and administrative circles that the situation warrants. Polio cases are still being reported with distressing frequency; in fact, it was reported yesterday that a five-month-old from Datta Khel in the tribal areas is the latest to succumb, bringing the number of cases detected to 83 this year alone. Worryingly, the challenges are set to mount — and fast. With the military operation now under way in North Waziristan, estimates say that there will be 300,000 unvaccinated children among the flood of non-combatants that are set to flee the region. Has the government a real plan, one that goes beyond good intentions and promises? We have yet to see any.



Pervasive thana culture
IT is not for nothing that they call him Tiger. Those who didn’t know him until Tuesday have now seen that when he is in action, even the law enforcers can do little other than watch in apparent admiration. His workmanlike demolition of many vehicles during the ugly confrontation in Lahore is on record. Television footage shows a middle-aged man smashing cars as police look on in silence that has been interpreted as a sign of approval. There is more footage that actually shows some police officers in conversation with the angry man, who, news reports say is a PML-N worker. Rana Sanaullah, the Punjab law minister, disagrees with the identification, but even he, with his persuasive powers, has been unable to stem the bad coverage his party is getting in the media. A lot of people may be inclined to believe what the media is saying. People are all too aware of how the authority of a ruling party manifests itself in its workers’ influence over the local thana and its close relationship with local police officers. This is how the system works beneath this ceaseless chorus of declarations about making the police people-friendly. The police are friendly with the people. At least, they are always friendly and cooperative with the ‘right’ people.

There has been plenty of talk about reforming the police culture. There has been some change. Despite that, overall, the old image of police officials playing the obliging minions to whosoever is in power persists. It is a serious issue whether the suspect in this case belongs to the ruling party or not, but even if the seemingly difficult task of disconnecting him from the PML-N is somehow achieved, the question of the police extending him patronage will linger. At the very least, the incident betrays a loose control over the forces of those with the avowed motto of good governance — whereas good governance at the level of ordinary people cannot come without a thana that is truly independent.

June 21th, 2014

Pak-Afghan challenge

PRIVATELY and largely away from the public gaze, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has cultivated PkMap leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai as an interlocutor between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Pakistani political government. While such private channels can sometimes backfire and raise the suspicions of unelected powers-that-be in both countries, Mr Achakzai’s personal standing and reputation appear to have given him some leeway to use his unofficial role for positive influence.

In addition, where PPP leader Asif Zardari tried and failed to build a rapport with Mr Karzai, Mr Sharif appears to have been somewhat more successful, leading to opportunities even at this very late stage of the Afghan president’s stay in office for working together on issues of mutual security interest between the two countries. With the recently held two-stage Afghan election and now a military operation in North Waziristan under way, there have certainly been immediate and practical grounds for security and intelligence cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. And yet, in true Pak-Afghan relationship fashion, perhaps the biggest challenges lie ahead.

To begin with, even at this late stage, there is little certainty about how and on what terms the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban will be able to achieve reconciliation — meaning the post-2014 stability and the gains of the last decade still very much hang in the balance. Two factors above all else will determine whether Afghanistan remains relatively stable or plunges into chaos again: the line the Afghan Taliban take on reconciliation as foreign troops pour towards the exit door and the degree to which the incoming Afghan administration is able to establish a better, more legitimate and more credible government.

Here, the jury is still out on whether Pakistan — the sum of the army and civilian power matrix — is doing as much as it could to nudge those two goals along or whether the state’s public pledge to adopt non-interference and non-intervention in Afghan affairs has meant not doing as much as it can. And while Mr Sharif has remained troublingly quiet on articulating a distinct, civilian-run policy on Afghanistan, how the prime minister’s wider relationship with the army leadership develops in the months and years ahead will also surely affect what is and isn’t achievable in the context of Pakistan’s overall posture towards Afghanistan.

To be sure, not all the cards are in Pakistan’s hands. Who wins the election in Afghanistan, whether an exiting American force means evaporating American influence in Afghanistan, how the TTP and the Afghan Taliban’s relationship develops or deteriorates, whether the nexus between the TTP and the Afghan security establishment deepens, how the ongoing and deepening strife in the Middle East will shape Iran-Saudi-US ties — much is unknown and even unknowable. But as Mehmood Khan Achazkai and Prime Minister Sharif have demonstrated, whatever happens, it’s better to talk than not to.

Iraq crisis deepens
PRESIDENT Barack Obama’s decision not to rule out “targeted and precise military action” against the advancing forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an extremist Sunni militia, does not inspire much hope.

Previous military interventions by the US in Iraq, and elsewhere, have complicated rather than resolved matters. Can 300 military advisers do much to change the situation when an American army of over 100,000 returned home without giving peace to Iraq? Mosul and Tikrit have fallen, fighting is raging for the control of the oil refinery at Baiji, and the question is whether Baghdad can be saved. To pin hope at this hour on American advisers and air strikes is to be naïve. Neither strategic nor tactical strikes are possible at a time when government troops are deserting and ISIS is gaining strength. Whether drone strikes, which the Baghdad government has reportedly asked for, can have a perceptible impact on the situation on the ground is debatable.

The truth is that Iraq is heading for a major conflict along sectarian lines, with even some moderate Sunni groups supporting the ISIS. In this bleak situation, which a UN spokesman described as “life-threatening”, there is hardly an institution or individual who has shown signs of mature leadership and rallied the Iraqi people to unite and jointly denounce all attempts to divide them. The leader who should have proved himself the man of the hour by taking firm control, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has not even opposed calls for the creation of militias that would exacerbate the sectarian conflict. Iraq’s possible break-up is looming. Government authority in large tracts of territory has disappeared, and foreign governments have started pulling out diplomatic staff.

Regional tensions have grown, with the Iraqi government accusing Saudi Arabia of financing “terrorists”, and Riyadh, in turn, blaming the Maliki government’s “sectarian policies” for the unrest. Iran appears willing to help the beleaguered Baghdad government, but any wrong move can add new dimensions to the conflict, and jeopardise the whole region, with Pakistan not immune from its effects. Totally absent from the scene are the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Mr Maliki should realise it is futile to look to foreigners for help; he can either make strenuous efforts to mobilise Iraqis to unite, or step down to make way for a national unity government, representative of all Iraqi citizens, that can work for peace.


Balochistan budget
WHEN Dr Abdul Malik Baloch was elected chief minister last year to head another coalition government in Balochistan, he made two important commitments. He promised to take effective measures to improve the security conditions in Balochistan and to revamp the provincial economy through reforms in public finance and development investment. Last year’s budget clearly indicated his fiscal and development choices. The new budget announced on Thursday builds upon those choices with the objective of turning Balochistan into a ‘peaceful and economically self-reliant place’. Resource constraints notwithstanding, the budget proposes a significant increase in expenditure on law and order. After all, economic reforms don’t work in an insecure environment.

The document tries to hold down its non-development expenditure despite the pay and pension raise allowed to provincial employees and saving previously federal funded 12,000 jobs of teachers and lady health workers. Most importantly, it not only boosts its development investment but also makes substantial allocations for priority social sector areas (education 23pc, health 8.6pc) and production and road communication sectors. If implemented, these policy choices must bring about a discernible change in the provincial economy, attract private investment and improve the quality of life.

But as they say it is always easier said than done. The province is facing financial constraints and its underdeveloped economy cannot generate enough revenues to help it fund higher development spending. There is a slight improvement in the law and order situation but expecting peace without addressing the burning issue of the missing Baloch and abandoning the ‘kill and dump’ policy is foolish. And last but not the least, we are unsure as to how much and how long the chief minister can ward off pressure from his coalition partners, especially the PML-N. The success of the new policies requires the unswerving cooperation of the federal government and the provincial PML-N leadership. So far the prime minister has backed him on many issues. But for how long and how much is the question.

June 23rd , 2014

Unnecessary apprehensions
THE democratic project must be kept on track, the PML-N government must shoulder its responsibilities with care and caution, and those opting for the politics of protest must stay within the ambit of the Constitution and the law — that, taken together, is the minimum that ought to be expected of the country’s political, military and social leadership in the days and weeks ahead. But whether everyone — or anyone — will behave responsibly is a question to which there is no clear answer yet. At the time of writing these words, with Tahirul Qadri hours away from arriving in Islamabad/Rawalpindi and the government seemingly already in lockdown mode — or is it panic mode? — it is difficult to make sense of quite why apprehension is rising and events have taken an air of threatening to spin out of control.

While the PML-N has acted to sideline key advisers in Punjab over the violence in Lahore this week, the sense of deep outrage has lingered on because of the N-League’s near-total mishandling of the situation. Perhaps the PML-N ought to remind itself of basic electoral maths and democratic facts. The party won an overwhelming majority in the Punjab Assembly a year ago and is into its seventh consecutive year in provincial office. In Islamabad, the PML-N has a majority in parliament and an opposition that, other than the PTI’s barbs, is largely focused on supporting the PML-N’s policy initiatives on the security and economic front. And, for all the rumours of friction with the army leadership, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has played a sensible innings for the most part and focused on bringing stability to the country in order to prepare it for economic revival. The PML-N, then, ought to be able to allow those opting for the politics of protest to exercise their democratic right without being unduly troubled.

Once again, for all the rumours and allegations of behind-the-scenes support by anti-democratic forces for Tahirul Qadri, the fact remains that the country has already seen off a challenge by Mr Qadri once before. This time, with the PTI sitting on the fence as opposed to throwing its support wholeheartedly behind the democratic process, there may be some greater noise surrounding whatever Mr Qadri and his on-again, off-again political allies may choose, but the fundamental calculus ought not to change. The PML-N governments in Islamabad and Lahore can and should step back and therefore deny their opponents the very thing they seek most: the oxygen of publicity and overreaction by the state. As for Mr Qadri and whoever chooses to join his cause, there is an onus of responsibility on their shoulders too. By all means, their right to protest against the government and its policies is sacrosanct and should not be violated. But there is a thin line between democratic dissent and an incitement to violence — and it is far from clear that the PML-N’s would-be tormenters understand where that line ought to be drawn. With a military operation under way in North Waziristan and the state’s resources drawn towards protecting against blowback in the cities and towns, there must be hope that better sense will prevail in Mr Qadri’s camp and his actions will not exacerbate political tensions.


Pemra reform
THE media wars which erupted in all their tawdry and shameful glory last April continue to rack up victims. Now, it is the turn of ARY News and Geo Entertainment to suffer 15-day suspensions and the imposition of fines at the hands of Pemra, the so-called electronic media regulator whose role in the media wars has left much to be desired. While the latest licence suspensions are surely unwelcome news for the media as a whole, at least Pemra has acted within what its rules permit and has allowed some semblance of due process in its latest actions. In ARY’s case, there may be schadenfreude in certain quarters that the channel has been burned by some of the very fires it so vigorously fanned against Geo. Yet, surely from the perspective of a responsible and independent media, what is more important is that ARY and other media groups understand how short-term gains against rivals inside the industry can and will come at the cost of long-term losses to the media as a whole. When Geo News was suspended some two weeks ago and the unwelcome precedent was set, it was only a matter of time before the same regulatory environment claimed another victim.

In the case of Geo Entertainment, the suspension has raised a host of other more complicated questions that few will want to address or debate. Quite what the chilling effect on TV the suspension will have and how much more assertive it will make the religious right when it comes to dictating what content is permissible on-air will only be known in the weeks and months to come. Suffice to say that even at this stage, a dangerous precedent has been set where the mere whiff of bad judgement has provoked such a campaign of intolerance on religious grounds. More than ever, then, the original problem needs to be addressed: an independent, fair and transparent media regulator must be established with powers that are strong enough to deter mischief by the media but whose mandate is also to ensure that free speech and the public’s right to information are protected to the absolute maximum extent possible under the law. In the recent media wars, just about anyone who had any role or position of responsibility failed in some way or the other. Unless serious reforms are undertaken, a repeat in the future, near or far, is all too possible.


Ramazan prices
WITH the month of fasting just days away, most households across the country are opening up their purse strings to stock up on food essentials and the expense of Eid that will come later. Unfortunately, many unethical traders and shopkeepers make it their business during this month of high demand to jack up prices. This is the time that the government needs to start putting monitoring teams out on the roads to check for hoarding, profiteering and the adulteration of food items that has become a regrettably common feature at this time of the Islamic year. Clamping down on these practices is in any case the responsibility of the state, but special effort needs to be made at times such as these when consumption patterns alter in a way that allows unscrupulous parties to benefit.

The sad reality is that it is the poor that will suffer the most, stalked as they are already by hunger and malnutrition. The prices of dietary essentials have risen steadily over the years, so that now there are estimates that nearly two-thirds of the population spends between 50pc to 70pc of its income on food alone. And even then, most people say that they are not eating the same food they were earlier because those items have become too expensive. In 2012, the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said that about 50pc of the country’s population was food insecure, and international bodies such as Unicef have pointed out the alarming rates of malnutrition. The government may be bogged down in various crises that it considers more pressing, but here’s the bottom line: all other efforts fail if the population doesn’t have access to food, and sufficient quantities of it. The advent of the month of fasting should be taken as a clarion call to efficiently monitor and regulate food prices, as well as to expand the system of food subsidies — such as the utility stores.

Unfolding Crisis

THE difference between governmental action and inaction can sometimes be difficult to discern — but often it is blindingly and shockingly obvious. Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people from North Waziristan have poured out of the region and the federal government and the political leadership would like the country to believe they are doing all that they can to ease the humanitarian crisis; but the facts, visible plainly to all, suggest that is clearly not the case. When politicians and the administration are in a purposeful mode and go into overdrive, doing absolutely everything they can within their powers to address a particular issue, there is one immutable aspect of whatever they do: publicity. But the handling of the IDP crisis has been left to junior ministers, committees and the like. No senior politician, other than the PTI’s Imran Khan, has even seen fit to visit the areas where the state is ostensibly doing all it can to ease the plight of the IDPs.

Compare and contrast the scenes and reports of the swelling number of IDPs appearing helpless and un-helped with the officials’ claims. Remember also the reason why these Pakistani citizens have fled their homes: it is the enormous price the state and the nation have asked of them in order to take on militants threatening the safety and security of Pakistan. Given the level of sacrifice that has been asked of them, it is surely not too much to hope the state took more seriously its responsibilities towards the NWA IDPs — especially since the state has gained significant experience in recent years in dealing with Fata IDPs displaced by military operations. Moreover, it has been known for years that some kind of military operation in North Waziristan would likely be required at some stage — so theoretically the IDP management in the present instance should have been the best managed and most thoroughly planned of all. Instead, it appears to be one of the more miserable and haphazard IDP management programmes in memory.

Unhappily, the growing IDP crisis is having a double negative effect. The unfolding humanitarian tragedy is eclipsing the reason there are IDPs fleeing North Waziristan in the first place: the military operation. How do the goals of a military operation square with the resentment and unhappiness that the IDP crisis is sure to further stoke among the people of Fata? At great cost to state and society, some militant strongholds in NWA may be about to be overrun, but what is the long-term possibility of success against militancy if the sympathy of the locals ebbs and possibly even switches to the militants’ side? Surely, whether from the point of view of morality or state responsibility or even just operational common sense, the North Waziristan IDPs need to be looked after and looked after well.



Aviation Security

THE nation had not quite recovered from the shock of the deadly militant assault targeting Karachi airport earlier this month when a fresh incident, this time in Peshawar, has raised concerns about aviation security in Pakistan. On Tuesday night a PIA aircraft flying into Peshawar from Riyadh was shot at, resulting in the death of a passenger and injuries to two crew members. The aircraft apparently came under fire as it approached to land, being only a few hundred feet from the ground. The Peshawar airport, like many other public aviation facilities in Pakistan’s cities, is located in a densely populated area. As cities in Pakistan tend to grow in a haphazard manner, it is not unusual for residential colonies and encroachments to sprout up uncomfortably close to airports. Shots and rockets have been fired at aircraft and at the Peshawar airport facilities in the past as well, while the airport was stormed by militants in December 2012. The reasonable expectation would have been that after the Karachi airport debacle, security at aviation facilities across the country would have been beefed up. But despite claims by the Civil Aviation Authority and other state actors, as the Peshawar incident shows, the required groundwork to make Pakistan’s airports safer has not been done.

Incidents such as the Karachi and Peshawar episodes make headlines across the world and unless there is a drastic overhaul of aviation security procedures in Pakistan, we may see our links with the outside world dwindle even further, as foreign airlines start pulling out. Already, decades of violence and instability have caused several major foreign carriers to abandon the Pakistani market. If the current state of official apathy continues, the carriers that remain — mostly Gulf-based airlines — may also abandon ship. Business may be fairly good in Pakistan, but if foreign carriers feel the risks are too high, they will be under no compulsion to stay. For the safety of aircraft and airports in Pakistan, several steps need to be taken. Patrolling in and around airports must be increased. Intelligence-gathering must also be beefed up in neighbourhoods adjacent to airports while staff working in aviation facilities should undergo background checks. It is the habit of the authorities to appear to strengthen airport security by adding more and more muscle to mainly the points of the public’s entry and exit. Clearly, that does not deter those determined to wreak havoc.


Secret Funds

IT is in the nature of secrets that until they come to light, there is no evidence of them being there at all, and all sorts of Machiavellian deeds go undetected. This is the reminder that Balochistan Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik Baloch’s disclosure on Tuesday constituted, when he said that the ‘secret fund’ associated with his office had been abolished and no allocation had been made under it in the current budget. More than the Rs500 million the Balochistan government has saved through this route, which will now no doubt be much more usefully spent elsewhere, it is the fact that the fund existed at all that causes eyebrows to rise. It is known that certain quarters, the federal Ministry of Information, for example, maintain a secret fund and this is what has been used over the decades to manipulate the press, tarnish individual journalists’ integrity and insert into public discourse material that strategically furthers the aims of the government of the day. Now, we learn that the office of the Balochistan chief minister too carried the same facility. How many other such secret funds are there, is the obvious question. To whom are they available, for what purpose are they used and how much money are we talking about?

The Balochistan government’s move in this regard is an exemplary step towards true transparency, and expresses its willingness to submit to the rules of fair play and clip its wings in an area that would give it considerable power to manipulate. Now that Dr Malik has made this announcement, he should also come forward with details about the areas where, over the years, these funds were spent. Further, the other provinces also need to come clean. For years, journalists’ forums have been demanding that such hideaways be abolished, and the details about what monies were given to whom be made public so that in this respect, at least, the ranks can be cleared up. It is high time this is done.

PTI's Roadmap

THE chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, Imran Khan, is scheduled to unveil his map for the future at a public meeting in Bahawalpur today. The announcement is being anxiously awaited against the backdrop of reported discussion within the party over which course it should follow from here onwards. In simple terms, the PTI is divided between the moderates who have the patience and will to work gradually within the existing system and the more radical elements who want to strive for forcing sudden change at the risk of severely endangering the system.

These are the two extremes Mr Khan has been shuttling between. One moment he presses for an investigation into vote fraud by the available apparatus and the next he threatens to join Dr Tahirul Qadri. If the PTI is not too bothered about learning from its own experience in public protest so far, maybe there is a case for it to have a close look at the Pakistan Awami Tehreek’s example: how Dr Qadri has been unable to sustain action that would indicate mobility. The drive — led either by Mr Khan or by Dr Qadri or by the two of them jointly — cannot go in fits and starts. There has to be decisive progress aimed at well-defined targets that are fully understood by and acceptable to the masses whose favour is being sought. There is more frustration than purpose to the two moves so far.

Imran Khan has reasons to be upset. He is within his rights to ask for a probe into alleged poll rigging. The delay in addressing his demands betrays problems in the system of governance that lacks an ability to effectively respond to discontent and complaints. Also, there is not too much room for disagreement over him questioning the arrogance with which the current rulers work. The big question, however, relates to the sensitive issue of just how far he can take his agitation and what serious repercussions his acts could entail, for his party and for the country at large. Mr Khan warns he could be ultimately forced to dissolve the provincial assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where his party is in power. If this is a statement made in total disregard for the disastrous effects such a dissolution could have on the whole of Pakistan, it seems also to be based on an overestimation of what gains the PTI, now a political party with proven public support, could make in the ensuing chaos. The people want change but, oft bitten, they will be wary of being plunged into yet another period of uncertainty. The PTI leader will persist with his demand for poll-fraud investigation, but if he is to emerge as the alternative he must devote some of his energies to turning his Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government into a model ready to be replicated all across the country.


For The Poor

IT has been almost a quarter of a century, now, that the language of our economic policy has been dominated by concerns related to growth. Over these years, we have worried ourselves sick over questions like how to attract foreign investment, how to bridge the fiscal deficit so the state does not become the dominant consumer of the country’s investible resources, what foreign exchange regime would best serve the objective of reserve asset accumulation, how to shift the taxation base away from trade towards consumption, and so on. As the language came to revolve around these questions, the poor and the marginalised increasingly dropped off the policy radar, becoming little more than an afterthought — a nuisance, rag-tag rabble with nothing but bellies to fill. Our infrastructure has seen paradigm-changing investments, like cellular communications and highways, but our public schools have fallen into desolation and disrepair. Flashy brand-name fast food establishments have proliferated, while the majority of our country’s children have been pushed into the clutches of hunger and chronic malnutrition. The government today talks about bullet trains and highways, while our railway infrastructure grinds to a halt and in our largest city, people still commute to work squatting atop buses that resemble rusted iron cages on wheels.

All this must change. In a seminar held in Karachi on Wednesday on the social justice impact of the budget, speakers highlighted the enormous cost of neglect that the poor have had to bear over these decades as the policy conversation has whistled right past their needs. Almost 50pc of the population of 180 million are malnourished, one speaker told the audience. This is a horrifying statistic, especially in a time when the government likes to brag about its accomplishments by invoking currency stability or the rising stock levels of the stock market. “It’s the state’s responsibility to take care of its citizens,” another highlighted. “It should take care of its mothers and children and provide them with a nutritional level that can help them fight for a better life.” It is impossible not to agree. It is imperative that our community of economists take the lead, and help the country find its way back to the older principles that fell off the truck when we began talking about liberalisation. The journey back begins with recovering the language which can put the needs of the poor in the driving seat of policy-making.


Fasting Buddha

TRULY is it said, reality is stranger than fiction — especially here in Pakistan. Since 1894, when it was donated upon being discovered, the Gandhara-era statue of the ‘Fasting Buddha’ has been considered the jewel of the Lahore Museum. Images of it adorn postcards and newsreels, and proud citizens make it a point to take visitors to see it as an indication that whatever else the country may be, a cultural wasteland it is not. This statue, priceless in terms of historical significance, has for a long time had a crack on the left arm. Investigations by this paper, upon receiving a tip-off, have confirmed an unbelievable story: back in April, 2012, the crack widened while being cleaned and the statue was given over to the museum laboratory’s tender ministrations. But, instead of the scientific, delicate and professional handling that an artefact of this stature demanded, an attempt was made to fix it by applying the common adhesive epoxy, which remains shiningly evident on the statue’s surface and has caused irreparable harm. The trail of destruction isn’t hard to trace, given the standards at the moment: the current lab technician worked earlier as a gallery attendant and driver, while the lab conservationist used to be a peon.

What can be made of this but the utter disregard Pakistanis tend to show towards history and culture? This is hardly the only example of this mindset. It turns out that 2012 was an inauspicious year for Gandhara-era artefacts. That summer, the police intercepted a large consignment of such relics that had apparently been about to be smuggled out of the country. But during the recovery process, the police ended up damaging many of them, unprepared perhaps for their weight and certainly unmindful of their value. In the case of the Lahore Museum, the qualified chemist employed at the lab was retired in 2009. No replacement has been found. This is unsurprising, given the importance attached to archaeology and history in the country.

Published in Dawn, June 27th, 2014

Action Against Militancy

AFTER the recent flurry of meetings between Pakistani and Afghan leaders and between the army and government, as well as the military’s insistence that the North Waziristan operation will be against all militants, there’s hope, finally, that the change in rhetoric on militancy will be matched with changes in state policy on tackling the scourge. On this point, the military leadership and the PML-N government have been unusually categorical: there will be no favourites or good Taliban/bad Taliban distinction in clearing out North Waziristan. Taking the military and the government at their word, the expectation still should not be that the military will rain down missiles and artillery on militants of every stripe. Instead, it is hoped the state is ready to sever ties with these elements and that no militant group, foreign or local, is allowed to maintain sanctuaries in the tribal agency.

Yet, is that truly the case? Will ties to the Haqqanis really be cut? What about Gul Bahadur and his long-term on-again, off-again relationship with the Pakistani military? Has it been finally and irrevocably ended or will expediency and a relationship of mutual convenience be allowed to revive ties again? Especially on the Haqqani front, the choice the military makes will have regional and international repercussions, given how the group is regarded by the Afghan and American governments. Surely, neither an Afghan government nor an American administration would demand that Pakistan militarily take on the Haqqanis given their proven ability to launch the most sophisticated and devastating of attacks. But what of the growing suspicion that perhaps the security establishment here is still shielding the Haqqanis and may have offered them safe passage out of the imminent battle zone or even helped physically relocate some of the Haqqani leadership in other parts of Fata? It is indeed encouraging that Pakistani foreign and security policy architects have at long last started to speak in specific terms of distancing the state from all militant groups. But the welcome clarity of language must be matched with clarity on the ground.

Similarly, the more purposeful and positive language between Pakistani and Afghan officials when it comes to ending cross-border militancy and sanctuaries on either side of the border is a welcome sign. So far, there had been little action taken by the Americans or Kabul against elements of the outlawed TTP operating from bordering Afghan provinces. The tensions over cross-border violence in the Kunar region in particular have soared in recent weeks and need to be urgently tamped down. For that to happen it will have to be largely a bilateral process and one in which patience, cooperation and good faith are preferred over the path of accusations and recriminations. It is possible. Both sides will find out soon enough if it is real or not.


Circular Debt

IT has been with us for so long now that even the puns are getting worn out. Last year, the PML-N leadership proudly announced that they had finished the circular debt once and for all with a gigantic retirement of Rs480bn in one go. Then as early as September, headlines began to appear again, announcing the return of power sector receivables in amounts larger than Rs100bn. In January, the State Bank mentioned the growing circular debt as a threat to the country’s fiscal stability. The next month, in February, senior officials from the National Transmission & Despatch Company told a Senate committee that the circular debt had now surged to Rs180bn owed to power generation companies alone. That same month saw news reports that the IMF had asked for a complete audit of the circular debt to accurately determine who was owed how much, and how the receivables were being calculated. That audit is still under way while we have come nearly full circle to a figure beyond Rs300bn owed to power generation companies alone, with no clear idea of how to tackle the crisis.

Last year’s gigantic retirement of the circular debt has clearly failed to eliminate the problem. It was the third such attempt to resolve the issue once and for all. Each effort was bigger than the one preceding it. We can recall the Term Finance Certificates floated in 2009, amounting to around Rs60bn, and the Rs120bn odd retirement in 2011. Each time the problem returned with a new ferocity, and this time it is no different. Of course, power sector reforms are key to eliminating this problem reliably, because it is now clear that at the heart of this issue is the power bureaucracy and its inability to deliver. But it is also important to realise that the circular debt is an animal that grows in the dark. Lack of transparency in the power sector is the root cause of its stubborn resilience to reform. It should be made mandatory for the power sector managers to release operational and financial data on a regular basis, much like the water bureaucracy or the State Bank does. Ending the play of discretionary authority and bringing in professional oversight by independent boards are key to bringing efficiency to the power sector, and plugging its various leaks. Without underlying reforms, throwing money at this problem becomes a self-defeating exercise.


The round of 16

FROM a total of 32, it’s now down to 16 teams vying to lift football’s World Cup. Unlike the group stage, where there was margin for error, mistakes in the round of 16, which kicks off today, will mean a flight home for the numerous contenders. The first round of the tournament in Brazil has featured sparkling moments of beautiful football, packed with plenty of goals, action and drama. Noticeably, some of world football’s powerhouses from Europe have made unceremonious exits from the cup, including defending champions Spain, who only managed a win against unfancied Australia and were pummelled by Holland and Chile in the group stage. Other European powers sent home early included Italy, England and Portugal. Italy has lifted the cup four times while both the Italian and English leagues are considered amongst the best in the world. Cristiano Ronaldo’s star power also failed to improve Portugal’s poor showing. Analysts have put forward a number of reasons for the Europeans’ misfortunes in Brazil, the foremost being the European players’ inability to acclimatise to the South American conditions. Also, no European side has ever lifted the cup in Latin America since football’s showcase event debuted in 1930. Yet more than the weather, it just may be that the ‘old continent’ is losing its dominance over the game as Latin America, another traditional hub of football, reasserts itself, while African and Asian sides also rise in the ranks.

But European sides should not be ruled out altogether at this point. After all, the Dutch have carried out a clinical campaign in the first round, winning all their group matches. It is entirely possible for the Dutchmen to lift their first cup in Rio de Janeiro. Germany also look strong. However, Brazil and the other South American contenders, including Argentina and Uruguay (despite losing Luiz Suarez to a bizarre biting incident), are no greenhorns and will put up a strong fight, propelled by passionate home and regional crowds. The journey to Rio will be eventful.

Published in Dawn, June 28th , 2014

The longer View

WITH the North Waziristan IDP crisis still unfolding, it is necessary and right that much of the national attention is focused on getting the state to do everything it can to ensure the ordeal of being made homeless within one’s country is rendered less painful in every way possible. Yet, perhaps the most significant thing that can be done in the long run to offset the misery of the North Waziristan residents is to ensure that the impending military operation against militants in the tribal agency is as total, complete and serious as possible. And for that, both a longer-term view and a much wider canvas must be considered. First, consider the logic of the militant. There is little hope of militants prevailing in a frontal, direct battle with the Pakistan Army, especially once the army puts its overwhelming resource superiority into motion. But there are two things a militant can do: live to fight another day and hurt state and society in a way that it saps morale.

As far as living to fight another day goes, militants escaping a military dragnet or avoiding a hammer and anvil strategy is near inevitable. Rarely, if ever, does the entire militant leadership facing a counter-insurgency operation end up in custody or dead in battle. What, then, of the militant leader who lives to fight another day? The embattled TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah has demonstrated just how dangerous that possibility can be, seeing that he was the key militant survivor in the most successful military operation to date. But the problem is more complex than a few militant kingpins who escape capture and resurface to cause trouble again. That next phase – of a militant resurgence in an area cleared and held by security forces – is in large part possible because there has been, and still appears to be, no long-term plan to return conflict areas to local, civilian-run administrations. And without that eventual movement towards normality, the alternative is painfully clear: an open-ended military presence that makes more likely pockets and spaces among the local population for militants to hide in and operate from. Just as the civilians cannot do the military’s job, the military cannot do the civilians’ job. But are they really willing to work in the sequence required?

There is also a serious problem in the short run that must be contended with. Time and again, the militants have demonstrated a willingness and ability to exploit the laxity and breakdown in discipline in defensive security measures during Ramazan. Given that the North Waziristan operation is imminent, so is the possibility of intense blowback in the cities – just when the law-enforcement and security personnel may lower their vigilance and preparedness. Is there a plan to fend off that particular Ramazan effect?


Custodial Torture

TORTURE by the state has a long history. It has been exercised largely as a means of extracting information, intimidating individuals or exacting revenge for perceived transgressions. More often than not, the motive is a mix of all three. In Pakistan, custodial torture is a fact of life. It is meted out on any given day at any one of the police stations in the country and in shadowy internment centres run by the security establishment. Evidence of the latter is most clearly manifest in the fate of ‘missing’ persons, who either turn up as mutilated bodies discarded somewhere or as barely alive, battered individuals occasionally disgorged by the state after repeated exhortations by the courts. A seminar held in Karachi last week to commemorate the International Day in Support of Victims of Torture gave voice to the demands of civil society for a law against torture. Such legislation would be in keeping with Pakistan’s international commitments: the country ratified the United Nations Convention against Torture in 2010.

In modern times, with the concepts of universal human rights and due process taking pre-eminence alongside the development of finely tuned criminal justice systems, recourse to torture is deemed neither acceptable nor productive. Indeed, it is often believed to be counterproductive, with information so gleaned seen as unreliable and the brutal methods fuelling further disenchantment with the state. That said, sometimes ‘civilised’ countries such as the US have until recently cited exceptional circumstances to justify the use of methods — euphemistically termed “enhanced interrogation techniques” — that would be categorised as torture under international law. However, not only was the exposé of torture and abuse at the Guantanamo prison greeted by outrage across the world, not surprisingly, it also served as an unparalleled recruiting bonanza for Islamist organisations, one that continues to exact a terrible cost. With the Pakistan Army deployed against Islamist militants in a “war for the country’s survival”, and the jingoism that such a scenario invariably generates, it is all the more imperative that the issue be flagged at this time. Moreover, the sweeping powers of arrest and detention given to the security apparatus by the Protection of Pakistan Ordinance 2013 can easily be abused if stringent checks are not imposed. A far better alternative to visiting physical and mental cruelty upon those suspected of anti-state sentiments is to enhance intelligence-gathering measures and let the law decide the guilt or innocence of an individual.


Polio Out of Control

NOTHING, it seems, is going to shake the government out of its torpor over a crisis that is rapidly spiralling out of control. Polio has been in the headlines for a considerable length of time now, with evidence mounting over the years that a highly infectious disease Pakistan once appeared on the verge of eradicating is in resurgence. Pakistan was recently placed on a list of countries poised to re-infect the world at large, and the World Health Organisation recommended a travel ban on people who do not have proof of vaccination. This was a deeply worrying development, and the expectation was that the government would immediately and concertedly turn its attention towards it. Yet, other than half-baked attempts at facilitating travellers by providing vaccinations and certificates at designated points, we have not seen much forward progress on the issue, as newly detected cases in KP and Fata show. Indeed, challenges that ought to already have been overcome, and gaps that should have been plugged, continue to present themselves.

Consider, for example, the case of a one-year-old boy who has become the seventh child to be diagnosed with polio in Karachi this year. His family left Swat in the wake of the military operation there, and once in the metropolis, the men responsible for his safety refused to let the vaccine be administered to him. Nevertheless, polio vaccination teams took advantage of the times when only the women were home, and he received three doses of the OPV. He has nevertheless contracted polio, which means that the efficacy of the vaccine had been compromised. One explanation is obvious, say doctors: the cold-chain storage procedure in which the polio vaccine is kept was interrupted. Has this occurred to anyone at the administrative level, provincial or federal, even as there is much talk of vaccinating the thousands of children flowing into the provinces from North Waziristan? That certainly does not appear to be the case. In its inattentiveness, Pakistan is risking even more isolation.

Published in Dawn, June 30th, 2014

Anti-system, pro-system

It is too early to state that Dr Tahirul Qadri has showed the government all his cards. The multi-party conference held by his Pakistan Awami Tehreek in Lahore on Sunday only hinted at what shape an anti-government alliance pioneered by him could eventually take. But even in its formative phase it was sufficient for a whole battery of government ministers and sundry PML-N members to cry foul. Typically, the PML-N dubbed the gathering a collection of old Pervez Musharraf allies, which is consistent with the theory that all the noise being created by some opposition parties in the country is directly linked to the Musharraf trial. The problem for the government, however, is that, regardless of its reason and origin, the initiative to forge unity in the ranks of the opposition could in time develop into a real threat for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It is not something that can be wished away. Nor can it be drowned out in a chorus of angry counter statements. The challenge in the making will require deft handling. The conference was in focus not so much for its declarations as for the names on its attendance roll.

Apart from known PAT sympathisers such as the MQM, PML-Q and the PTI, one other important party which added value to the effort with its participation was the Jamaat-i-Islami. It was, by the Jamaat`s standards, a quiet cameo appearance that should have been enough to worry those wary of a grand alliance.

Critically for the government, the PPP chose not to attend the conference. Reports indicate that PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari is so far resisting the temptation of the Qadri mix and does not want to be part of the PAT-led drive against the PML-N. There are also reports Mr Sharif is to soon call an all-party meeting of his own to discuss the ongoing military operation and the present political situation. Short of that, the prime minister is expected to have talks with Mr Zardari and PTI chief Imran Khan.

Mr Sharif`s message to Mr Zardari and Mr Khan would be the same: that their fortunes are tied to the continuation of the system.

But he may get altogether different reactions from the two. Mr Khan in his current mood might not be willing to commit to the system and could in fact try and play on any joint defence put up by the PPP and PML-N the parties he accuses of colluding to sustain an oppressive order that suits them. The Qadri conference did fulfil this purpose, of sharpening the divide between the antiand pro-system forces. The best the pro-group can do in the circumstances is to appear to attempt improvement in the system on its own. By doing so, the PPP-PML-N combine would be trying to offset the almost inevitable anti-system assault.

A common threat in Iraq

HAT America and Iran have some common interests in Iraq but only up to a point became evident when the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff pointed out the difficulties involved in the way. In a radio interview, Gen Martine E. Dempsey said the two sides had `potentially the same goals` but that Iranian policy in Iraq was not going to be `completely aligned with us`. The issue for both is the rise of Sunni extremism, as represented by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, which on Sunday changed its name to the Islamic State. Led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State has larger aims. Its rapid military advance and the capture of Mosul, the second biggest city, have demoralised the one million strong Iraqi army and unnerved the government headed by Nouri al-Maliki. His forces are already there in Syria, and the Islamic State statement, proclaiming a caliphate, said the latter would extend from Diyala in eastern Iraq to the Syrian province of Aleppo and would soon include the entire Muslim world. This constitutes a challenge to the Fertile Crescent`s existing borders formed after the First World War and consequently poses a threat to all regional states. More significantly, Sunday`s declaration dislodges Ayman al-Zawahiri from his position as chief of all jihadist movements. The Al Qaeda chief did not get along well with Baghdadi whose extremism was apparently more than what even Zawahiri could stomach.

In this anarchic situation, when Baghdadi`s forces are in control of large swathes of Iraqi territory and are knocking on the door of the Iraqi capital, it is but natural for all forces against religious extremism to get together, the first priority being to help the Maliki government fight back. Another important player in the region, Saudi Arabia, looks at Baghdadi`s forces with suspicion and has pledged not to let `a handful of terrorists ... terrify Muslims`. This way a commonality of interests exists among Washington, Riyadh and Tehran, and there is no reason why they should not coordinate policies that serve their common interests. It would, of course, be naive to believe that the three parties, especially America and Iran, could sink all their differences, given their diametrically opposite view of Israel. Yet there is no reason why they cannot work out a modus vivendi for the limited but geopolitically important purpose of preserving Iraq`s territorial unity.

`Gains` at cricket moot

HE tall claims made by the Pakistan Cricket Board regarding the many significant achievements during the recent annual International Cricket Council meeting in Melbourne has sparked a debate. Pakistan`s elevation as the fourth member in the all-powerful ICC executive committee alongside the `Big Three`India, England and Australia the signing of MoUs for as many as six home and away series with India between 2015 and 2023, and the nomination of the next ICC president from Pakistan are being dubbed as groundbreaking gains by the PCB. However, there is a sense that it is much ado about nothing as the headway ostensibly made by the PCB in Melbourne was discussed over and over again in the past without anything concrete ever materialising. A delighted PCB chairman, Najam Sethi, said that Pakistan now holds an important and undisputed position in world cricket af ter the gains at the ICC moot. Nevertheless, it is being pointed out by critics that the PCB should wait for a formal announcement on this score by cricket`s global governing body before celebrating its success.

As far as Pakistan`s elevation is concerned, Mr Sethi`s claims received a setback of sorts when the ICC quickly drafted in the West Indies as the fifth member of its executive committee on Saturday.

Besides, the ICC has also clarified that while the original Big Three equation will be a constant, the other two members will be elected annually, meaning that Pakistan`s rise could just be a temporary arrangement lasting a year or so. As for the MoUs signed for six series with India, the Indian cricket board too previously made similar commitments but the Indian government put paid to its efforts by ordering it to suspend all ties with Pakistan cricket when it deemed it necessary to do so. Meanwhile, Pakistan`s nomination for the post of ICC president goes back to 2012 when it was decided that Pakistan would head the ICC in 2015 on a rotational basis as per the governing body`s charter.

Dawn/01-07-2014

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