A disastrous turn of events

LAST evening the political crisis that has captivated this country for three weeks boiled over. First, there were indications that somehow the government had acceded to the most extraordinary and wretched of capitulations: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was, according to feverish rumour, to go on a month-long enforced vacation while a senior minister ran the government and the Supreme Court-led judicial commission investigated the allegations of so-called widespread fraud in last year’s election. If the allegations were found to be true, again according to the mooted deal, the National Assembly would be dissolved and fresh elections would be held. That the deal was rumoured to have been reached just hours after Mr Sharif had spoken scornfully of the protesters and their number and impact in Islamabad suggests that the government had already lost all control of the situation.

Then, late into the evening, came another spectacular, shocking turn of events. Imran Khan, Tahirul Qadri and their respective protesting camps decided to move from their venue outside parliament towards Prime Minister House. That suggested a deal – any kind of deal – was off and that the government’s foes were going for the political kill. In retaliation, the government bared its teeth against the protesters and mayhem ensued as tear gas shells were fired and the civilian-run police – not the military – were used to repulse the protesters onwards movement. Never – never – has the capital witnessed such scenes in its history and events, at the time of writing these lines, could well end up as a disaster. Surely though the events of Saturday evening were highly choreographed and scripted by some power other than Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri. The very idea that a few thousand baton-wielding protesters can march towards Prime Minister House without some explicit assurances behind the scenes is absurd. Quite what those assurances are and what the endgame ultimately is will be known soon, perhaps overnight or in a day or two.

The biggest question: can Nawaz Sharif survive? The answer, in these frantic hours, must surely be a miserable, despondent no. If that is in fact the case – if Mr Sharif’s third term as prime minister is at or near an end – what does that say about the PML-N supremo? Is he a failed leader or a political martyr? Piecing together the events over the last year and especially over the past few months, the answer seems to be Mr Sharif is a failed leader. This was a political crisis that was mishandled from the outset. Too much confidence, too much scorn, too much arrogance – and very little nous. For five years, from 2008 to 2013, Mr Sharif mostly said and did the right things. The democratic project had apparently – and thankfully – become larger than Mr Sharif’s whims. But one year into his term, in his handling of the forces determined to undo the project, Mr Sharif has proved himself a leader very much out of his depth.

Ajmal Khan’s release

“THANK God it is a happy ending for the family,” said one well-wisher of Islamia College vice chancellor Ajmal Khan. There are many other families who are praying for their ordeal to end soon and for their dear ones to return. Mr Khan, who arrived home on Thursday, had been held in captivity by the Taliban for four years. There is no word on where he had been kept all this time — he told the media that he was unable to identify the area. There is little information on how the release was secured. Such details do not matter to him or to those around him when their entire focus is on celebrating the long-awaited homecoming. Much as it is a desperate situation for others held hostage by the militants, Mr Khan’s return is a sign of hope. The biggest positive is that he is free, even when the passage of so much time had led to the projection of the gloomiest of scenarios. Moreover, for someone who went through the trauma of being held hostage for such a long period, he has come out of it remarkably composed.

Some of those who are still held were mentioned in a report in this paper on Saturday — a Swiss couple and a son of former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who was abducted by militants in Multan on the eve of the general election last year. Lest he is forgotten and treated under the head of ‘collateral damage’ as a result of the fight against militancy, a few days ago the family of Shahbaz Taseer, son of the slain Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer, reminded everyone that it has been three years since he was kidnapped from Lahore. There are others missing and said to be in the militants’ custody. Because of the sensitivity of the matter, not much information is available on any effort being made for securing their release. That lack of information can be ignored so long as the promise of return is there.

Modi’s PR exercise?

SURPRISED by the strong domestic and foreign criticism of his government’s unfortunate decision to cancel India-Pakistan foreign secretary-level talks which were fixed for Aug 25, Narendra Modi seems to be having second thoughts. On the eve of his departure for Japan, which wants to see friendly relations between India and Pakistan, the Indian prime minister said he would have “no hesitation” in having discussions with Pakistan on all “outstanding issues”. His foreign ministry spokesman had said a day earlier that the talks could be held on all issues, including Kashmir, within the bilateral framework agreed upon at Shimla and Lahore. Talking to Japanese journalists, Mr Modi said he had a “very good meeting” with Nawaz Sharif during the latter’s visit to New Delhi and the two agreed that the foreign secretaries should meet to “explore how to take relations forward”. He added that his government would continue to make efforts to build “peaceful, friendly and cooperative ties with Pakistan”. That was all fine. But he did not let the occasion go without a dig at his western neighbour, alleging Islamabad had tried to make “a spectacle” of the Pakistan high commissioner’s meeting with Kashmiri leaders. That was a poor excuse.

Pakistan’s position has always been that Kashmir is not a piece of real estate, that Islamabad and New Delhi could not alone resolve the dispute and that, to be lasting, a solution must enjoy the support of the Kashmiri people. For this reason, Pakistan mission chiefs in New Delhi have regularly met Hurriyat leaders to keep them informed about the state of talks. Shortly after India called off the secretary-level talks, Hurriyat leader Shabir Shah said the Kashmir issue could not be resolved without the inclusion of the “true leadership” of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in the resolution process, because, as he put it, “we are the basic party. What is wrong if one party meets the other party?” The Indian stand was that the high commissioner’s meeting with the Kashmiri leaders constituted “unacceptable interference” in Indian affairs. Mr Modi’s latest remarks constitute an admission that the decision to cancel the secretaries’ talks was wrong, because it had torpedoed the attempt to revive the process that hasn’t really recovered from the Mumbai attacks. Only the future will tell whether Mr Modi’s intentions declared at the media talk constituted an exercise in PR, the target audience being Mr Modi’s critics abroad, or if he meant what he said.

Published in Dawn, August 31, 2014

Hard choices for the PML-N

Having survived a tumultuous, disastrous weekend, the PML-N government somehow still has the opportunity to try and salvage the situation and save the democratic system from collapse. Whether it will be able to do so will in large part depend on whether Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is willing to lead from the front and act decisively and quickly. There are at least two things Mr Sharif needs to do: rally the democratic forces in the country to save the democratic system; and approach Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to bring them back to the negotiating table. In calling a joint session of parliament for Tuesday, the PML-N will be hoping to once again demonstrate that the political class is emphatically and solidly on the side of democracy – and that the unconstitutional and unjust demands of the anti-government protesters should not be given in to.

While the mainstream political parties in the country are largely in agreement with the government on the need to protect the democratic system, there is a great deal of unease at the PML-N’s continuing mishandling of the political crisis. Rather than grab the initiative and control the evolving political narrative, the PML-N strategy is a defensive one: the government continues to insist it is open to talks with the PTI and Mr Qadri but, especially when the possibility of a negotiated settlement recedes, seems far too comfortable relying on heavy-handed tactics by the law-enforcement agencies to repel street pressure. Right or wrong, the time has passed when the PML-N could escape the present situation without making any concessions. The PML-N will now have to make some big concessions – so why not approach the PTI and Mr Qadri with the big concessions that could entice them back to the negotiating table?

Despite their maximalist positions, both Mr Khan and Mr Qadri surely have various pressures that may make them amenable to a negotiated exit. As the falling out between Mr Khan and PTI president Javed Hashmi yesterday demonstrated, Mr Khan cannot simply keep increasing the pressure on the government in any way possible without experiencing some kind of backlash from his base. As if to underline that the PML-N leadership can and should do better, the army leadership put out a statement late last evening deploring the violence that occurred over the weekend and encouraging the government to seek a negotiated settlement. If anything, it indicates that the army leadership is willing to give the prime minister a little more time before imposing a solution of its own. Perhaps what the prime minister and his team need to absorb is that the country has witnessed scenes far worse than what occurred on Saturday and yet seasoned and mature politicians have eventually found a way to resolve many past political crises. Where there’s a will there’s usually a way.

Violence must be probed

EVEN as the stand-off between the government and its opponents continues, the shocking, terrible events of Saturday evening as anti-government protesters and a brutal police force fought it out on Constitution Avenue need to be urgently investigated to prevent a repeat in the hours and days ahead. Several confirmed deaths, hundreds injured, many more bruised and battered – whatever the legality or otherwise of what the protesters were attempting, they should not have been met with the kind of violent force that the civilian-run police of Islamabad and Punjab used against them. The PML-N governments at the centre and in Punjab almost seem determined to make police violence a defining aspect of their rule. Surely, having had weeks to prepare for any eventuality and having already experienced the disaster that was the Model Town incident in June, whoever was managing the police response on Saturday ought to be sacked, and worse. Yet, as with so much else in the terrible morass that has become the PTI/PAT siege of Islamabad, it was also the two anti-government leaders, Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri, who proved to be reckless in the extreme with the lives of their supporters on Saturday evening. Mr Khan’s inflammatory rhetoric was specifically designed to whip his supporters into a frenzy – and for the so-called PTI tigers to take on the law-enforcement personnel and defeat them, as Mr Khan had vowed would happen.

But whatever Mr Khan did, he was comprehensively outdone by the premeditated and deliberate violence unleashed on the signal of Mr Qadri to his supporters.

If anything, it appeared that a naive Mr Khan had been lured into escalating an already dangerous situation into outright violence by a conniving Mr Qadri. While both the PTI and PAT supporters marched towards the police lines, it was really the male PAT workers who appeared determined to trigger violence. Organised, armed with non-lethal weapons, working in unison and to a plan, it was the PAT workers who lured women, children and helpless PTI supporters into the line of fire and from there it was the PAT workers who fought most of the pitched battles with the police through the night. Mr Qadri and his PAT workers have much to answer for. Dealing with Mr Qadri’s violent agenda though is the government’s responsibility. While guns were not used, deaths and injuries still occurred on Saturday. That is simply a terrible performance by the police yet again.

Cricket flop in Sri Lanka

BRITTLE nerves, sketchy techniques and a dispensable old guard. That’s how one should describe the current Pakistan cricket team which crashed to a seven-wicket defeat at Dambulla on Saturday to hand the three-match ODI series 2-1 to Sri Lanka. The ODI loss follows the 2-0 whitewash in Test matches earlier this month where Misbah-ul-Haq and his team were comprehensively beaten by the hosts in all departments of the game. Although this Pakistan team has experienced more defeats compared to wins in recent years, what has been really appalling about the defeats in Sri Lanka is the cavalier attitude of players and their inability to shoulder responsibility on most occasions. The series proved a sort of watershed for talented youngsters such as Ahmed Shahzad, Khurram Manzoor, Umar Akmal, Sharjeel Khan and Mohammad Talha — all of whom are supposed to form the nucleus of Pakistan’s campaign at next year’s World Cup that is to be played in Australia-New Zealand.

They not only failed to show any spine when the chips were down but also lacked the technique to counter Sri Lanka’s bowling attack which, at best, can be described as mediocre with wily left-armer Rangana Herath being the only exception. The defeats have also brutally exposed Pakistan’s old guard comprising Misbah and senior pros Younis Khan, Shahid Afridi, Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rahman who struggled to measure up as their team got thrashed left, right and centre. Questions are bound to be raised on team selection and about the ultra-defensive approach of skipper Misbah who will have to bear the brunt of the blame for not inspiring the team enough to put up a decent fight. In the aftermath of the matches, one does not see a bright future for the 10-man support staff that accompanied the team and that includes illustrious names like Moin Khan, Waqar Younis, Mushtaq Ahmed and Grant Flower. The onus must be on the newly elected chairman Shahryar Khan to put things back on track by carrying out a thorough post-mortem.

Published in Dawn, September 1st, 2014

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"I am still learning."

Army’s questionable decisions

The carefully constructed veneer of neutrality that the army leadership had constructed through much of the national political crisis instigated by Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri has been torn apart. First, came the army’s statement on Sunday, the third in a series of statements in recent days on the political crisis, which quite astonishingly elevated the legitimacy and credibility of the demands of Imran Khan, Tahirul Qadri and their violent protesters above that of the choices and actions of an elected government dealing with a political crisis. Consider the sequence of events so far. When the army first publicly waded into the political crisis, it counselled restraint on all sides — as though it was the government that fundamentally still had some questions hanging over its legitimacy simply because Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri alleged so. Next, the army crept towards the Khan/Qadri camp by urging the government to facilitate negotiations — as though it was the government that was being unreasonable, and not Mr Khan and Mr Qadri.

Now, staggeringly, the army has ‘advised’ the government not to use force against violent protesters and essentially told it to make whatever concessions necessary to placate Mr Khan and Mr Qadri. It is simply extraordinary that it is the PAT and PTI supporters who want to break into and occupy state buildings, but it is the government that has been rebuked. It’s as if the army is unaware — rather, unwilling — to acknowledge the constitutional scheme of things: it is the government that is supposed to give orders to the army, not the other way around. The government has already issued its order: invoking Article 245. On Saturday, as violent thugs attacked parliament, it was surely the army’s duty to repel them. But the soldiers stationed there did nothing and the army leadership the next day warned the government instead of the protesters — which largely explains why the protesters were able to continue their pitched battles with the police and attacked the PTV headquarters yesterday.

If that were not enough, yesterday also brought another thunderbolt: this time from within the PTI with party president Javed Hashmi indicating that Mr Khan is essentially doing what he has been asked and encouraged to do by the army leadership. It took the ISPR a few hours to respond with the inevitable denial, but a mere denial is inadequate at this point. The functioning of the state stands paralysed because a few thousand protesters and their leaders have laid siege to state institutions. Where is the army condemnation of that? Would the army allow even a handful of peaceful protesters to gather outside GHQ for a few hours? The army is hardly being ‘neutral’. It is making a choice. And, it is disappointing that choice is doing little to strengthen the constitutional, democratic and legitimate scheme of things.

Rock and a hard place

Reprehensible as it is, the reason why the police turned their ire on journalists as Islamabad’s Constitution Avenue descended into chaos over the weekend is not hard to understand. Amid stone-pelting, tear-gassing and with a baton-charge under way, the knowledge that footage of these scenes would shortly be splashed across television screens across the country would sit like a canker. Pakistan’s police aren’t averse to using brutal methods when they feel the situation requires it, and few would welcome incontrovertible proof of it. One cameraman says that he heard someone shout “beat up the media people”, and he was thereafter chased down and beaten severely. All in all, at least 28 media persons were beaten up and injured, several despite having identified themselves with their press cards. This episode is a sad reminder that journalists in Pakistan face a unique set of challenges while executing their jobs; the norms that have been developed to protect men and women in the media around the world are routinely flouted with shameless impunity here. Were that not the case, how would it be possible to understand the fact that the two personalities at the centre of the scenes of destruction and unconstitutionality, Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri, felt that it was acceptable for them to hurl threats against journalists, media houses and their owners, and incite violence against them? That said, media persons are also left vulnerable to attack by the actions and inactions of their employers and managers.

The question to be asked is, why were they so near the scene of action, as police and protesters fought it out, that they ended up becoming involved. Why were they not at a safe distance, where neither side could mistake them for being part of the other? Sadly enough, in the thirst for ratings and the lust for footage that is thought to increase viewership, Pakistan’s news channels tend to put pressure on those out in the field to get as close as possible to the action — regardless of the dangers. Then, they all too frequently fail to provide the gear that is essential in situations where conflict might develop: flak jackets, protective head-gear, and so on. Why this neglect? Should journalists not have the right to expect that the organisations that employ them will look out for their safety and welfare, and not expect them to put themselves in danger?

Endangered temple

THE discrimination, often outright victimisation, suffered by religious minorities in Pakistan is well documented, and the violence that breaks out in this connection regrettably frequent. It is not just the growing narrow-mindedness in society that leads to prejudice, what is of equal concern is that we have on our law books clauses — such as the so-called blasphemy law — that allow discrimination and harassment. The white stripe on the national flag designed to represent Pakistan’s numerous minority-religion groups is ignored by both state and society. But there are also other, less obvious, ways in which the country’s lack of ownership of and concern for such sections of the citizenry plays out. Consider, for example, the prospect faced by the Maharishi Valmik Swamiji Mandir in Chaklala Cantonment, Rawalpindi, and the Hindu residents that live in the Gracy Lines area. The 79-year-old temple is in active use and the only place of worship for Hindus in the vicinity. But the authorities want to build an educational and housing complex, and the demolishing of several Hindu residences is imminent.

While as yet no written notice has been issued concerning its demolition, devotees and others have reason to believe that the worst may happen. There can be no argument that the temple must not be touched, given its importance to the Hindu community of the area as well as its historical significance. Development is necessary, but not at the cost of citizens’ rights and the country’s heritage. More than that, the authorities need to take heed of the signals being sent out by their uncaring attitude towards threatened structures that are dear to members of minority religions. For, this is not the first time or the only place where such a move has been contemplated, or even executed. Would Muslim places of worship impeding ‘development’ be treated with similar nonchalance? All places revered by the country’s various religious communities must be treated equally. The state must think of all faiths as equally sacrosanct.

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2014

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"I am still learning."

Thar drought

The Thar region is once again in the news for the drought and starvation that are taking their toll on the inhabitants. Though its geography and harsh climate make this arid corner of Sindh more vulnerable to disaster than other regions of the province, the absence of timely state intervention has aggravated the situation. As reported, a drought-like situation is persisting in Thar as the area has hardly seen any rainfall during the monsoon season, which is nearing its end. Difficult climatic conditions have added to the people’s woes as a number of suicides — many said to be triggered by poverty related to the drought — have been reported. What is equally worrisome is that there is not enough fodder for livestock. For Thar’s desert dwellers, livestock is an essential part of their existence and can mean the difference between life and death. And while Tharis do migrate to other parts of Sindh to find seasonal work, reports indicate that some families are leaving their native areas permanently.

Drought-like conditions were also experienced earlier this year, with a number of children reportedly dying from malnutrition. Though there was some controversy over the exact number of deaths, this time locals say that unless steps are taken, the effects of the drought may be even more severe. A similar lack of water and fodder has been reported from parts of Jamshoro and Dadu districts. The Sindh government has said it is taking steps to address the situation in the affected areas, and is providing wheat to the population. While the provision of food and water will temporarily stave off starvation, a plan needs to be put in place to save the area’s livestock as well. Hence supplying fodder to the people’s animals must also be a priority. And as drought is not uncommon in Thar, for the long term policies need to be framed so that the people and livestock in the area are protected from the devastating effects of natural disasters.

Continuing impunity

Though civil society and all those in Pakistan who favour the rule of law have been campaigning hard for an end to enforced disappearances, little has changed on the ground. The state is believed to be either complicit as elements within the security establishment allegedly abduct citizens, or it is powerless to stop the forces involved in this atrocious practice. If such impunity continues, it will severely affect efforts to build a state that operates within the parameters of the law. To mark the International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances observed last week, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon remarked that the practice “cannot be tolerated in the 21st century”. He added that numerous states worldwide had started secretly detaining people as part of counterterrorism efforts. In a related statement, the International Commission of Jurists, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch were critical of Pakistan’s lack of efforts at ending such abductions. The rights bodies said the state had failed to: establish the facts about the missing persons; to bring those involved in their abduction to justice; and to compensate victims and families. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has also observed that while such disappearances have decreased in Balochistan, the number of incidents in KP and Sindh have gone up.

Despite the international and local outrage, it appears as if the practice is far from being stamped out. Recently, missing persons’ campaigner Amina Janjua claimed that 91 people had been killed in different detention centres in KP. She said there were over 40 such facilities in the province in which around 2,000 people were being held. On the other hand, the bodies of three missing Baloch men were discovered on the outskirts of Karachi last week. Activist Abdul Qadeer Baloch said the names of the men were on the list of the missing persons. And we must remember that the mystery of mass graves discovered earlier this year in Balochistan’s Khuzdar district remains unsolved. The missing persons’ issue has persisted despite the intervention of the Supreme Court; this shows an utter contempt for the law by those responsible. If the state suspects a certain individual is involved in militancy or terrorism of any kind — whether of the separatist or Islamist variety — a case must be lodged and due process followed, giving the accused the right to defend himself. Abducting people and thereafter dumping their corpses is a completely unacceptable counterterrorism tactic.

Economic impact of street politics

ISLAMABAD may be shut, but Pakistan is open for business. Factories are humming, raw materials are moving freely on the roads, people are commuting to and from work, cellular communications remain uninterrupted. The rupee has seen some declines, more likely due to developments intrinsic to the markets themselves rather than the crisis. Forex reserves are broadly stable, the stock market has seen good days and bad throughout this affair, and there have been only marginal declines. Even the collection of taxes and recovery of bills in the power sector are normal, despite calls for ‘civil disobedience’. Attempts to spread the rallies to Lahore and Karachi and other cities have floundered and there has been little disruption in day-to-day life anywhere else in Pakistan, with no general strikes, no closures of roads and petrol pumps, schools or offices, no halt in public transport. Beyond this, however, the damage is huge, difficult to quantify, and of a lasting nature. Those looking in from the outside are asking how sturdy the political system in Pakistan really is. Talks with the IMF are at a standstill, and it is likely that the next tranche will be delayed. The World Bank is worried about the future of its massive Country Partnership Strategy, worth $11bn and announced just this April.

Meanwhile, government work has ground to a halt, and although the machinery continues to function in the rest of the country, the ministries and secretariats and committees are all on standby. In short, whereas daily life is largely untouched, the strategic outlook for the country has suffered a considerable blow. This is the exact opposite of what street politics is meant to do. Crippling everyday life yields maximum political dividends and leaves no lasting damage, but harming the strategic outlook brings no political rewards and causes lasting damage to the economy. This is why street politics usually targets the operation of daily life in the cities rather than fighting in the streets of the capital. In this case, however, the reverse has happened — we saw fighting in the streets of the capital while it was business as usual everywhere else. It is disheartening to note that this confrontational strategy was used by the PTI, a party that drew ample support from professional and corporate circles — precisely those who are heavily invested in the strategic outlook — and a party that prided itself for its focus on the economy. They should have reconsidered the decision to resort to street politics if they lacked the capacity to credibly wage the fight. Once the passions wane and the rallies disperse, perhaps the party leadership should reflect on the consequences of their actions. There are some amongst them who were hailed as exemplars of professional excellence, and those people will now need to explain the merits of their decisions to a very sceptical audience.

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2014

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"I am still learning."

Asylum seekers’ plight

The anguish of the Pakistani asylum seekers in Sri Lanka can only be imagined. After several weeks of uncertainty, a court in that country has allowed the authorities to deport a number of individuals, comprising Ahmadis, Christians and Hazara Shias, who were seeking refugee status on the grounds of religious persecution in Pakistan. They are among a group of around 150 Pakistanis rounded up in June by the Sri Lankan government and kept in detention camps while their fate was deliberated upon. According to the UNHCR, which has complained it was not allowed access to the asylum seekers to assess their claims, 128 of them have already been deported since then, after the Sri Lankan government dismissively categorised the group as ‘economic migrants’. The process was halted when human rights groups criticised the haste with which the authorities had seemingly washed their hands of the issue. The case was turned over to the court which has by its decision validated Sri Lanka’s official stance that these individuals were a threat to the country’s security and public health.

Given the asylum-seekers’ religious affiliations, the veracity of their claims can scarcely be overstated. Sri Lanka would have done well to take a humane view of their quest for refuge; its indifference to their plight goes against the spirit of legal and moral obligations towards vulnerable groups. In any case, now that avenues of escape for them appear to be closed, it is incumbent upon Pakistan to ensure their misery is not further compounded when they return by them being dragged into legal tangles based upon the deportation reports issued by Sri Lanka. Already, the Pakistan Foreign Office has done them a disservice by saying they have ‘badmouthed’ Pakistan in Sri Lanka, a statement that dispenses with logic (for why would they seek asylum had they not been driven away by intolerable injustice here?) and compassion, for it has tarred them as ‘unpatriotic’ — a dangerous label in a milieu where minorities are anyway seen as second-class citizens.

War against education

The political turmoil in Islamabad seems to have eclipsed all other crises in the country. Amongst these is the religious extremists’ assault on education in Balochistan, which is gaining ground. A school in Turbat, district Kech, was torched by an outfit calling itself ‘Al Jihad’ late on Monday. The militants left pamphlets in the area warning people not to send their children to English-medium schools and to only educate them at madressahs. The principal of the targeted school has said he had been receiving threats from unknown individuals for several months. This is far from the first incident of its kind in Balochistan. A school was set on fire by unknown assailants in Panjgur a few days ago while a number of educational institutions were attacked in the same district in May. At that time, a group calling itself Al Furqan al Islami had claimed responsibility for the violence; then, too, the militants had issues with the teaching of English, while they also railed against coeducation. The attacks led to the lengthy closure of schools in the area while a number of parents reportedly relocated to Quetta and Karachi so as to continue their children’s education.

Due to the conflict between the state and separatists in Balochistan, other critical issues — such as the attacks targeting schools — are not getting the requisite attention. But what is particularly disturbing is that some Baloch activists have said that religious extremists opposed to women’s education, who they allege are supported by the state, are responsible for the terror campaign against schools. They have also said that the same extremist elements are trying to spark sectarian conflict within Baloch society. While sectarian violence against Balochistan’s Hazara Shia population has continued for quite a few years, members of the Zikri community were targeted in Awaran last week after a considerable length of time. As it is, the state of education in Balochistan is miserable. One figure suggests that over two million children are out of school, while the separatist insurgency has resulted in many non-Baloch educators leaving the troubled region. Unless action is taken against those organising violent forays targeting schools, religious extremists will only be emboldened. We have witnessed militants turn hundreds of schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Fata to rubble. The Balochistan government must act now while the security agencies, which have a heavy footprint in the province, must help the administration bring to justice the militants involved.

Parliament’s hour

After too many days of the spotlight being on scenes of violence and extra-constitutional demands, there is reason now to let the attention be captured by a legitimate, sovereign body: parliament. Nevertheless, the members of the assembly debating and drafting the resolution to address the crisis would be served well by a little humility and reflection. As a strong counter-narrative emerges from the debates at the joint session of parliament — and as the protesters grow weary of the fight — there will be a strong temptation to be dismissive of the protesters and their demands. Certainly, the methods and rhetoric employed by the PTI and PAT should be rejected. The use of insurrectionary language and imagery, and the clashes in the streets, might to some give the protests the look or feel of a popular uprising of some sort, an effect that was clearly intentional. But despite the sound and fury, it’s also true that with or without a ‘scriptwriter’, this is ultimately a political conflict and must be resolved using political means. And there is no forum better than parliament for the resolution of political conflicts. The PTI has provided the government, and more generally parliament, with an opening in Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s speech before the joint session.

He specifically said that they “wish to resolve this crisis” and spoke at length about the sanctity of parliament. More importantly, he referred to continuing talks and said nothing about the resignations his party’s MNAs have already submitted. The government needs to acknowledge this opening and find a way to build on it rather than get into a point-by-point debate on all the other issues that he also raised. Most importantly, parliament should resist casting this affair in ‘them vs. us’ terms. The PTI and PAT have created this binary distinction, but a sustainable compromise depends on parliament rising above it. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s absence while Mr Qureshi spoke sent the wrong signal — of disinterest, for example. The prime minister has a right to be offended by some of the rhetoric the PTI has hurled in his direction in the last couple of weeks, but taking personal umbrage at the theatric stunts of politics is not — let’s face it — good politics. What would make for good politics at this time would be to respond to the signal that the PTI has just sent: that it is willing to return to talks and seek a negotiated path out of this situation. Parliament needs now to show further maturity, and advance a concrete package of suggestions that go beyond what has been put on the table thus far. On the government’s side, it can give a pledge to parliament: if, after appropriately defining the terms, the judicial commission does indeed find evidence of “massive rigging” as alleged, the government will call for midterm elections.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2014

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"I am still learning."

PTI’s men of honour

In walked Shah Mehmood Qureshi to the very institution his party has denounced as illegitimate and corrupt and which his leader Imran Khan has been abusing from atop his container. As the PM and the interior minister walked away, Qureshi delivered a speech so laden with hypocrisy that it made many cringe. Remarkably, he insisted his party had never attempted to harm parliament and was in fact out to defend it, denying there was any other agenda, any script written by hidden hands and handed to the PTI and PAT. It must have taken a considerable degree of shamelessness on Qureshi’s part to do so, but he had to run this errand. He spoke of the sanctity of parliament, its lawns, its land and his respect for these. He only exposed himself and Imran Khan further by giving away the real ‘code of honour’ the PTI leadership lives by: that whatever is said outside parliament is just words and verbosity. We wonder how this should be taken by those PTI supporters – men, women and children – who have been misled, exploited and endangered by the words and verbosity of the proponents of ‘Naya’ Pakistan. In a stunning display of hypocrisy and double-talk, Qureshi claimed that he could only advise the crowds, not command them, and then in the next breath said PTI marchers had nothing to do with the violence that had occurred. He blamed the PTV headquarters attack on the PAT, ostensibly throwing Tahirul Qadri under the bus.

Shah Mehmood Qureshi and the other PTI MNAs who had submitted their resignations, were, according to Imran Khan, supposed to appear at the joint sitting of parliament for the last time to lay out their case. It did not quite work out that way. In the manner of Mark Antony coming to bury Caesar rather than praise him, Qureshi hoped to win over lost PTI support, made his speech and walked out before any of the PTI members could have their resignations accepted. This tactic should not work. Walking out of parliament before anyone could confront them, he and his fellow MNAs managed to avoid Mehmood Khan Achakzai’s proposal to pass a resolution condemning the attacks on parliament and PTV and getting the PTI MNAs to sign it. Avoiding responsibility has been a hallmark of the PTI since day one of the march and Qureshi and the rest of the MNAs merely played to type. It is highly telling that the only PTI MNA to have really and openly followed the original instructions to resign so far is Javed Hashmi – the one who dared defy Imran and expose his real intentions.

Even as the ‘political jigra’ tries to hash out a political settlement – something Qureshi claimed to support in his speech – Imran is still insisting on Nawaz’s resignation. What now remains to be seen is if the PTI and PAT drift apart as talks continue with Imran’s men or if a more comprehensive solution can be found. We have already seen enough to know that both Qureshi and his leader cannot be trusted. He may have, in what can be seen as an admission of defeat, said that the PTI wants a negotiated solution. But Qureshi and his fellow men’s real standing in Imran Khan’s eyes, and how they can so easily be overruled and used by Imran Khan’s megalomania is now sufficiently known. Until such an agreement is in place and adhered to, Islamabad should continue to be alarmed. Still, the triumphant cries from just days ago to march towards the PM’s house seem to have been forgotten. An agreement there has to be, but there will be little now that the PTI can hold up as a sign of success – even for face-saving. The feeble cries that ‘awareness’ has been raised leaves us incredulous. Awareness about what? How not to lead a party? How to lie? How to incite a mob and worship chaos? How to invite the army to make order out of chaos? Yet, for all the humiliation they have suffered, the PTI may be marginally better off than Tahirul Qadri. Though he made some attempts to soldier on his body language gives him away. His cape droops, his shoulders sag and no one pays him much heed at all. He has already asked supporters who wish to leave to go home. We hope the attention should soon shift to clearing up the debris left behind by the marchers in Islamabad.

Bad cricket

If the abysmal tour of Sri Lanka cannot wake the Pakistanis from their slumber nothing else can. With World Cup 2015 set to roll into action on Valentine’s Day in Australia, the poor results produced by the national team in Sri Lanka should come as a deafening wakeup call. Responding to recent defeats, new Pakistan Cricket Board chairman Shaharyar Khan has set himself a fact-finding mission. The ex-diplomat has a tough job to do as the Pakistan cricket team is experiencing a lean patch. The visiting team was unimpressive during the best part of the trip but it turned out that Pakistan was saving its worst for the last. In the ODI series finale in Dambulla, Pakistan pressed the self-destruct button as its entire batting line-up crashed for just 102 – its ninth-lowest ODI total – in front of what was hardly the world’s best bowling attack. Such abject surrender will force Pakistan’s cricket think-tank to go back to the drawing board even in normal circumstances. The fact that it has happened less than six months before the World Cup calls for an extraordinary response.

Pakistan was put to the test by the Sri Lankans and was found lacking in almost every department of the game. In Australia and New Zealand, the co-hosts of next year’s World Cup, the conditions will be far more challenging and many of the opponents much stronger. Pakistan is facing numerous problems and needs to find many answers. The clock, meanwhile, is ticking. The first question the country’s cricket chiefs need to ask themselves is whether the coaching staff spearheaded by Waqar Younis is capable of delivering the goods. Waqar’s team includes Zimbabwean Grant Flower and Mushtaq Ahmed. All three of them are vastly experienced but the question is whether they can lift the national team and put it on the winning path. That didn’t happen in Sri Lanka. The leadership of Misbah-ul-Haq has also come under the magnifying glass. Misbah flopped as the team’s senior batsman and didn’t impress much as its skipper either. But they say that a general is just as good or just as bad as the troops under his command. Barring a few exceptions, Misbah’s troops didn’t play like winners. Running out of time, Pakistan will have to find the right mix in the coming months. Otherwise, our team is bound to fail in next year’s World Cup.

Published in The News, Thursday, September 04, 2014

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"I am still learning."

The ‘vulgarity’ argument

WOMEN young and old, some with heads bare and others covered, swaying to the music, singing, cheering or with eyes moist with emotion, the definitive female presence at the PTI and PAT protests in Islamabad has been quite remarkable, and life-affirming. After all, this is a country where grotesque depredations against women to deprive them of their agency make regular headlines. Moreover, these women — particularly those who have arrived from other cities — have persevered through the daily discomforts and indignities that are inevitable in a society where the norms of public space are geared to men’s convenience. It was perhaps inevitable then, that the bogey of ‘vulgarity’, which is conveniently dredged up not only to shame women but also the men associated with them, would be repeatedly raised during the course of the protests by some of the august personalities that populate our political sphere. Among those who have voiced their outrage that our culture is being ‘undermined’ by the women’s assertive visibility in the public domain and that ‘indecency’ is being promoted by those ‘dancing’ to music, are Hamza Sharif and, at the joint session of parliament currently under way, Maulana Fazlur Rehman as well as —surprisingly — Aftab Sherpao.

The topic has also agitated the minds of many a participant at television talk shows and generated debate on social media. It is extremely unfortunate that despite the political discourse having broadened considerably over the course of democracy taking root in Pakistan, a process in which the extent of women’s participation is an important marker of success, the urge to define their behavioural parameters in the political sphere remains as robust as ever. It springs from the same mindset that prevents women from casting their vote in some parts of the country on the excuse of ‘cultural constraints’. Pakistan is not a homogenous society with a uniform culture, and the attempt to score political points through specious arguments suggesting otherwise is an affront to all women in the country.

Military’s figures

AFTER a considerable silence, the military has spoken about the ongoing operation against TTP militants in North Waziristan. Going by the statistics released by the army on Wednesday, it appears that a significant number of militants have been killed in Operation Zarb-i-Azb, while the terrorist infrastructure has also been neutralised. The army says 910 suspected militants have been killed since the operation commenced in June while 27 ‘factories’ used to produce IEDs and other munitions have been destroyed. Over 80 troops have also died in the line of duty. The army says it has carried out over 2,200 counter terrorism operations countrywide in the wake of the action in the tribal belt, which is why, it believes, there has been minimal backlash. Indeed, the latter observation is valid — before the operation was launched there were fears that there would be a vicious terrorist backlash against any state action deemed hostile by the militants. Thankfully, the only major terrorist attack witnessed since Zarb-i-Azb began was the assault on two airbases in Quetta last month. However, the operation will only be judged a success in the long term if the militant infrastructure is permanently dismantled and those with blood on their hands brought to justice.

Meanwhile, the banned TTP has contested the military’s claims, saying only 25 to 30 of its fighters have been killed, adding that its bomb factories had been shifted to ‘safe places’. The militants may be on the run, but a clear victory against them can only be achieved if they are put out of business altogether. For example, despite counter terrorism operations conducted in Bajaur and Swat in the past, these areas have yet to return to complete normalcy. In a related vein, the US military leadership has offered its own view of the operation in North Waziristan. Senior US generals have said it is “too soon” to evaluate the action in the tribal areas. They have observed that Pakistan will have to “clear, hold and build” the territory that has been taken back from militants. They have a point. But what the Americans in Afghanistan and the government in Kabul can do on their part is to prevent militants on the run from taking refuge in the areas bordering Pakistan, while the latter must challenge those using its territory to fight Kabul. Most importantly, the US can help Pakistan rebuild North Waziristan in order to help bring the troubled area into the national mainstream.

Generosity of spirit required

WHETHER the de-escalation of the political crisis is a temporary phenomenon or a permanent one only the days ahead will reveal. There is certainly pressure building on Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to end their protest and seek some kind of deal on electoral reforms with the government, but the PTI and PAT chiefs have so far displayed fickle behaviour. Consider how last Saturday, in the space of a couple of hours, the situation along Constitution Avenue changed from optimism that a deal may be imminent to dark violence after Mr Khan and Mr Qadri teamed up and unleashed their supporters. Yet, there is a sense that the protesters are running out of options. A steady rain in the capital yesterday added to the problems facing the PTI and PAT because the focus remained on the joint session of parliament instead of what Mr Khan and Mr Qadri said or did. If the de-escalation is to be permanent, however, the PML-N will have to demonstrate magnanimity of spirit that has been lacking for the most part. To be sure, Mr Khan, Mr Qadri and their respective protesters have appeared undeserving of sympathy. But the onus on the government is greater — Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his government are the custodians of the democratic project and must do whatever they can to bring all political forces, even implacable foes, closer into the political mainstream.

Contradictory as some of the PTI rhetoric has been — contrast what Imran Khan has routinely said from atop his shipping container with what Shah Mehmood Qureshi said inside parliament — the PML-N should focus on the pro-democracy and pro-parliamentary words of PTI leaders and find some common cause. Even now, it would make much sense to offer some generous concessions to the PTI and PAT in return for the withdrawal of their demand for the prime minister’s resignation and a quick end to the protests, thereby allowing the country to move on from this most damaging of episodes. The PML-N ought to pay heed to what has made the present de-escalation possible: activating parliament in defence of democracy and widespread revulsion at the PTI’s and PAT’s aggressive, violent tactics over the weekend. The anti-democratic forces in the country are still strong, but they no longer have carte blanche. To achieve their goals, the anti-democratic forces need a political foil, a government that makes repeated mistakes and is low on public goodwill. For much of this crisis, the PML-N has been that political foil, a bumbling opponent that has compounded virtually every problem it has had to contend with. Now that life is flowing out of the anti-government protests and flowing back into a government that had seemingly been clinging to survival, the PML-N must take advantage of the opening to build bridges in the larger interest of democracy.

Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Nisar’s tirade

Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan’s disparaging remarks about Senator Aitzaz Ahsan were completely uncalled for. The hard-fought moment of unity that was to be parliament’s finest hour has now been blemished by the clash of egos. It could not have been easy for members of the treasury benches, particularly Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his notoriously insular inner circle, to hear the speech with which Mr Ahsan opened the joint session of parliament on Tuesday. But it would have been to their benefit had they appreciated his words of support, and left the rest for later. Mr Sharif should know that his conduct and demeanour — and that of his ministers — are under intense public scrutiny at the moment. People want to know what lessons the PML-N ministers are drawing from this tough test of nerves and will. If they emerge from this affair a little more humbled, a little more sensitive to the virtues of inclusiveness, and a little more responsive to the needs of the ruled rather than to the prerogatives of the rulers, that in itself would be a promising new start. The apology proffered by the prime minister to a justifiably annoyed Mr Ahsan for the conduct of his minister was indeed a positive sign.

It showed that he is alive to the perils of the moment. But it was characteristically muted and failed to undo the damage done. The apology only served to highlight the fact that the prime minister has yet to effectively advise his ministers on the importance of remaining calm and not being provoked by the opposition’s observations and criticism. After all, a few bruised egos are not too big a price to pay for putting this whole matter to rest. Unfortunately, Mr Sharif’s government is perceived as cliquish, insular and withdrawn, with a style of governance in which all too often personality trumps policy. It is about time that the government understood that people are looking for a change in attitudes and performance. Getting bogged down in a tit-for-tat exchange of allegations and belligerent rhetoric with other political parties precisely when the latter are preparing to rally around parliament and, by extension, the government, fuels the impression that it will be business as usual — or worse — once the dust settles. Both parties in this battle of egos should let go of the matter, and the prime minister should lead the way in this.

Rain disaster once more

The country had been experiencing an unusually quiet monsoon — until the crippling downpour in Peshawar on Aug 21. In fact, the rain that has lashed parts of Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab this week has added to the situation the familiar elements of helplessness and resignation. Some 80 deaths have been reported so far, the water levels in the rivers are rising and many districts in northeastern Punjab and the area above it are in imminent danger of flash floods. Submerged and paralysed by water, Lahore and Rawalpindi are being cited as examples of how not to prepare for heavy rain. Meanwhile, further into the districts, the challenge of rescue and of controlling rain damage is formidable. It is on such occasions that the rural areas that otherwise exist on the periphery of national attention make an appearance. News from ‘distant’ villages indicates large-scale destruction and experts warn this may be only the beginning of the trouble unleashed by the skies. It may take time to quantify the damage caused by these initial torrents, and the death count could turn out to be less. But there is no dispute that the authorities have a huge crisis on their hands. They have no option but to put off all else and get down to fighting the rain and flood. The Punjab chief minister has said his government will tap all resources to counter the challenge and his counterpart in KP has also committed his government to pledging the best it has.

These two gentlemen, however, are severely hampered by the absence of the lower tier — the local governments — which could have been useful in combating the floods. The absence of local governments is not the only evidence of how we keep delaying what is necessary until disaster strikes. The country has witnessed frequent floods. The most devastating of these in the recent past was the 2010 deluge that caused large-scale destruction and sent experts scurrying to study remedies for the future. A summing up of what preventive actions could have been taken to avoid or minimise this latest emergency will again unmask inefficiency and sluggishness. But while this standard exercise can be put off for the moment, a few other points can be repeated. In today’s world, large dams and smaller reservoirs are considered essential to controlling the river flow. This is where Pakistan has made slow progress. It may not be a practical solution in the case of each river, but where it is, the need is to proceed with urgency. Also, encroachments are the first to be exposed to a river’s rage. Narrowing the path of the rivers results in tides which are ready to boil over. It is crucial that when containment is discussed the issue of encroachment is seriously addressed.

Split in militant ranks

Cracks within the militant edifice in Pakistan seem to be widening as the banned TTP and Jamaatul Ahrar, a splinter group that parted ways with the parent outfit recently, have been engaging in an intense war of words. In a ‘charge sheet’ released on Thursday, Ehsanullah Ehsan, now the JA spokesman, claimed that “the killers” of some leading militants, as well as 200 Mehsud fighters, were “sitting beside” TTP supremo Mullah Fazlullah. Esan had more unkind words for the TTP chief, saying that Fazlullah lacked leadership qualities and that militants were fast abandoning the TTP ship being steered by him. There seems to be some truth to Ehsan’s assertion about Fazlullah’s growing isolation as it appears that numerous militant factions from different parts of Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are now gathering under the JA banner. In fact, the Umar Khalid Khorasani-led group from Mohmand, which has thrown in its lot with the JA, has been active in launching terrorist attacks in recent weeks.

But the militant mudslinging has not been one-sided; earlier the Fazlullah-led TTP had poured scorn on JA’s fraternising with ‘suspicious’ groups and had criticised the new outfit for causing dissension within jihadist ranks. Of course, in the murky world of militant politics, betrayal, power struggles and intrigues are not unknown. For example, there were some rumblings when Fazlullah took the TTP reins, while Hakeemullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman had also reportedly locked horns at one time. It is likely that the military operation in North Waziristan has aided in widening the militants’ internal split. But the time to celebrate is not here yet as the militant threat has not dissipated; its nature has simply changed. After all, it is entirely possible that breakaway factions will be even more ferocious than their mother outfit. The security establishment will need to closely follow developments, keeping an eye specifically on Jamaatul Ahrar. The state’s counterterrorism policy needs to be tailored in accordance with the capabilities of the various strands of militancy emerging in the country.

Published in Dawn, September 6th , 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Lahore submerged

MUCH of Lahore is currently inundated and a large number of homes, especially those in low-income localities, have suffered damage because of the incoming floods. All damage to infrastructure in the city is in addition to the tragedy of numerous rain-related deaths in the provincial capital and north-country generally. Most of the deaths occurred because of roofs and walls collapsing as the heavens opened up, an indictment of the enforcement — or, more accurately, the lack thereof — of building codes. But the flooding in Lahore in particular, a city that is used to the annual monsoon deluge, holds certain crucial lessons for the authorities here as well as in other cities. The last time Lahore witnessed flooding on a comparable scale was in 1996, when the situation was so dire that people had to be rescued from their homes in boats. Following this experience, city authorities invested heavily in putting in place storm drainage networks and buying related machinery. Since then, even through the flood years, Lahore has remained relatively free from the long-term accumulation of water.

Of course, after a downpour water would collect in some places, but it did not overwhelm the drainage network. So what happened this time around? True, the recent rains were heavy and sustained, but this time certain other factors have compounded the crisis. One factor is linked to the city’s needs for drainage. These have, over the years, outstripped the capacity of the drainage network which has not been developed at a commensurate pace. City development, if it is to be sustainable in the long term, is a constant balancing act. Every new building, road expansion or constricted green space has an impact on other areas of the city. For example, an extra lane for motorists means, as we see in parts of Canal Road, less green space which is vital for absorbing water. Without holistic and thorough planning that takes a broad view, situations such as the one currently faced by Lahore are inevitable.

Chinese whispers

THE cancellation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan has added to the anxiety being felt by investors — foreign and domestic — in Pakistan. The cancellation, as well as the manner in which it has been announced, is a reminder of the steep cost Pakistan is paying for the current power struggle in the country. It is symptomatic of the chaotic response that the government is giving to the challenge posed by the continuing protests that the announcement came on the personal Twitter feed of a senior government minister while official circles were busy denying the news. Then the Chinese foreign office refused direct comment on the matter, only saying that since the visit had not been officially announced, the question of any cancellation did not arise. More than 36 hours later, Pakistan’s Foreign Office finally issued a formal announcement of the visit being put off. In the intervening period, speculation and rumour filled the air, and many of the privately posed reasons behind the cancellation will continue circulating long after the dust has settled.

More damaging has been the question of the fate of the $34bn worth of projects the president was said to be bringing with him. The government is saying these ‘investments’ have suffered a setback, whereas PTI chief Imran Khan has been loudly responding that these projects were never ‘investments’ to start with, they were loans, and compared their terms — 7pc — with those offered by multilaterals like the World Bank and the ADB. Both parties are being disingenuous at best. The funds in question are not investments, they are more like project financing that require the machinery in question to be procured from Chinese entities. And comparing their terms to those offered by the multilaterals makes no sense since the latter do not want to touch coal-fired power plants due to environmental concerns. Pakistan’s next best alternative is private financing, which if the returns on the last Eurobonds are anything to go by, are close to 7pc. The uncertainty is further aggravated by Moody’s announcement that Pakistan’s Fund programme might be disrupted by the protests. The stalled talks on the fourth review with the Fund are a further reminder that large stakeholders from outside are waiting for the protests to be resolved. The government needs to do a better job of communicating the facts to prevent rumours and speculation from taking over.

The intransigence continues

WEEKS into a crisis and after many rounds of negotiations between the government and the PTI, the intransigence of both sides is striking. The PTI chief Imran Khan has publicly once again declared that his party will not leave Constitution Avenue until Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif resigns — a claim that could be true, but may also have something to do with keeping the pressure on the PML-N negotiators. Meanwhile, Mr Khan’s negotiating team has told the government that it wants a judicial super-commission, backed by a presidential ordinance and having extraordinary powers, to announce binding judgements in the case of even individual constituencies where the May 2013 elections are disputed by the PTI. The difference between the super-commission demanded by the PTI and the judicial commission offered by the PML-N is not trivial: the PTI’s proposal would bypass existing rules, including constitutional ones, in a way that would turn the electoral and criminal systems on their head. Surely, while the overall goal of the PTI may be to prove the electoral fraud it has alleged and to reform the electoral system, putting the horse before the cart is not in the greater interest of the democratic system. Yet, for every bit of foolishness and intransigence the PTI can demonstrate, the PML-N seems willing to outdo its political foe. Quite remarkably, at this late stage, the PML-N negotiating team has once again closed the door to recounts in selected constituencies. That was the original demand of the PTI, a demand the PML-N dithered on until the PTI demands increased, before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself publicly suggested that re-examining the results in selected constituencies could be done.

Quite why the PML-N would backtrack now on a pledge made in public by the prime minister is difficult to fathom — unless the PML-N is reverting to type and once again misreading the situation. Following PTI president Javed Hashmi’s bombshell allegations and the robust defence of the democratic system in the joint session of parliament, the PML-N had regained some of the space it had lost during last weekend’s violence on Constitution Avenue. Feeling a little more confident, perhaps the PML-N decided now is not the time to make any concessions to the protesters. That would be a mistake. The joint session of parliament has made it clear that while the opposition fully supports the democratic system, many a party in the opposition has reservations about last year’s results too. To close the door on vote recounts as the PML-N negotiators have done is to not only rile up the PTI, but to potentially provoke the ire of the opposition. While the PML-N has democratic allies, it does not have carte blanche. Misreading the mood of parliament could end up giving the protesters outside parliament another lease of life.

Published in Dawn, September 7th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Harder push for solution needed

It was a quiet weekend on the political front, but perhaps in a crisis that is as confounding as it is protracted no news may be good news — at least nothing untoward happened over the weekend. The Aitzaz Ahsan-Nisar Ali Khan war of words that had overshadowed the joint session of parliament looks to be over after the interior minister addressed the media on Saturday and did not instigate further trouble for the PML-N. Meanwhile, the PTI and PAT returned to the respective sites they occupied in the red zone on Aug 19 likely to try and dodge further trouble with the Supreme Court which has been unhappy about the protests significantly disrupting access to state institutions housed on Constitution Avenue. The PTI and PML-N negotiating teams also steered clear of controversy and eschewed tough, unnecessary public statements. Notwithstanding Imran Khan reiterating that he will accept nothing short of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s resignation it appears that serious floods in parts of the country may have dampened the appetite for theatrics and hyperbole on both sides, at least temporarily. A quiet weekend though does not mean that the PML-N can afford to show anything but urgency in dealing with the PTI and PAT.

The government would be mistaken if it thinks the longer the crisis is drawn out the more life will flow out of the protests. The at times paltry numbers gathered during the day at the PTI and PAT protests venues can quickly swell if Imran Khan or Tahirul Qadri decide to move towards Prime Minster House or parliament, as they did two Saturdays ago. Moreover, and perhaps most crucially, it is not known where the army leadership truly stands on the issue. If the army leadership were to stop treating the government and the protesters as co-equals and clearly come out backing the government, the danger to the democratic system at least would pass and make the matter of dealing with the PTI and PAT demands that much easier. The veneer of army neutrality though still remains — which is surely a large part of the reason why the crisis continues and why the protesters and their leaders may yet do something reckless. At this point, it is perhaps important for the civilian interlocutors who have been trying to bridge the differences between the government and the PTI/PAT to redouble their efforts. The PPP and Jamaat-i-Islami leadership in particular have put in a lot of effort already and may find that a concerted push at this stage could bring the government and the protesters to the middle ground that has proved elusive so far. But with the joint session of parliament set to resume today, other parties could also try and play a role in resolving the impasse. The joint session went off track towards the end of the week; perhaps this week parliament can get down to doing some serious work.

Domestic cricket revamp

The recent statement of the Pakistan Cricket Board’s new chairman Shaharyar Khan regarding the revamp of the domestic structure of the game has been lauded by cricketing circles. Coming on the heels of the national cricket team’s disastrous tour to Sri Lanka, the PCB chief’s remarks are a step in the right direction. That Pakistan cricket is on the decline is no secret. With the Cricket World Cup barely six months away, the national team appears woefully short of match-winners and has struggled to attain top grades in International Cricket Council rankings in all formats during the past couple of years. Cricket experts accurately attribute this to a haphazardly organised domestic cricket structure. They argue that despite possessing the talent, our players hardly ever experience the kind of pressure or competitive spirit in local matches required to meet the rigours of the game at the international level. While it is a fact that most PCB chiefs in the past have attempted to reorganise domestic cricket in Pakistan, they have met with little success.

But the current chairman, after holding a series of meetings with skipper Misbah-ul-Haq, head coach Waqar Younis, chief selector Moin Khan and a few others, appears set to re-launch plans of a domestic cricket overhaul. Armed with prior experience of running Pakistan cricket, he may be better equipped to understand the present difficulties confronting the game. That said, he is likely to face opposition and a number of problems once he actually gets down to implementing the plan. There are lobbies, mafias and other groups, comprising former cricketers and officials, that have their own ideas on how domestic cricket should be structured. Similarly, there are factors such as scheduling of matches in various regions, the state of grounds and pitches, pressure from sponsors and the availability of players for domestic matches that must also be kept in mind. It remains to be seen how well the PCB chief overcomes the challenges ahead to improve domestic cricket.

Anti-IS coalition

Foreign military intervention in the world’s trouble spots is not always a sustainable option. In the past few decades, we have seen slow-motion disasters unfold in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya thanks to military intervention planned in distant capitals. We have seen Nato and its allies bombard countries and engineer regime change, but efforts at ‘nation building’ have failed miserably. Now, it seems a fresh military adventure is in the offing. Following the recent Nato summit in Wales, a new coalition has been formed to counter the self-styled Islamic State. Led by the US and containing other major Nato members and Australia, the coalition will also try and bring Saudi Arabia and the Gulf sheikhdoms on board. There can be little argument with the premise: the Islamic State is a vicious transnational terrorist outfit that needs to be defanged for the security of the Middle East and the international community. The problem is with the modus operandi. We must ask if a Western-led military incursion is the best solution to eliminating IS. While American jets have already bombed extremist targets in Iraq, there are several plot holes America and its allies have not plugged. It was indeed the Iraqi government that had asked for US air strikes to target IS. But any attempt to successfully neutralise the extremist group will need the support of regional states.

While Turkey is already a coalition member and the Saudis are being wooed, other regional countries are being ignored. The Americans have said Iran and Syria will have no role to play in the coalition, despite signals from Tehran and Damascus that they are willing to confront IS from a joint platform. Ignoring these two regional countries would be a definite folly. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the West all see the extremist outfit as a common enemy; why, then, isolate Tehran when it wields considerable influence in Baghdad and shares a long border with Iraq? Keeping Bashar al-Assad out of the picture also defies logic. As much as the West dislikes the Syrian strongman, it is parts of his country that IS occupies. Attacking IS in Syria while simultaneously aiding the anti-Assad opposition will only add to the anarchy that prevails in that hapless country and may actually end up helping the militant organisation. Perhaps the most effective way in which the West and its allies can counter the group is by cutting off its sources of manpower and funding.

Published in Dawn, September 8th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."