Symbol of resistance

October 11th, 2012

The news of a gun attack on young Malala Yousufzai, who had become a symbol of resistance in Swat to the Taliban’s obscurant agenda, has been met with revulsion in Pakistan and abroad. The 14-year-old, a crusader for girls’ education and an outspoken critic of the Taliban, had been receiving threats from the latter, and in that respect the attack, claimed by the Taliban, has come as no surprise — even though Malala’s family reportedly did not think that the Taliban would target her.

However, it must be borne in mind that the militants’ targets have over the years become extremely blurred; and apart from state and military installations they have bombed hospitals, marketplaces, mosques and bazaars, killing or maiming thousands of civilians in the process. Besides they routinely issue warnings to people not to support groups working on community welfare projects. With such a regressive thought process, their violent rejection of anything that stands for democracy, secularism, in fact the basic freedoms themselves, is only to be expected. In keeping with their hidebound ideology, they have atomised 2,000 schools — almost all of them catering to girls’ education, to which Malala, since the time the Taliban ordered the school her father ran to be closed down, is inextricably linked.

The attack on Malala was the third such incident in Swat in recent months. In the earlier two crimes, the Taliban had targeted a hotel owner and the chief of the hotel owners’ association. Does the crime in Mingora on Tuesday forebode Swat’s return to tyranny in the name of religion? We hope not, for the tourist paradise has made a remarkable return to normality. The 2009 army operation against Mullah Fazlullah and his men by all accounts was a success story: the militants have been chased into nearby Afghan provinces from where they carry out attacks inside Pakistan — a reminder that their defeat has not been complete. Since their flight, though, Swat has been largely peaceful; domestic tourism has returned, while welfare works have picked up. This turnaround in the situation has been due mostly to the efforts of the people of Swat who suffered under the Taliban, seeing their livelihoods ruined and their traditional way of life disturbed, besides witnessing the group’s barbarity on almost a daily basis. However, there is still no room for complacency, and even sporadic targeted attacks could indicate the presence of a support base for the Taliban in the area. Better intelligence-gathering then is needed to thwart the designs of those who are waiting to once more snuff out the dreams of thousands like Malala.

End of saga?

October 11th, 2012

At long last, the saga of the so-called Swiss letter appears to be coming to a close. Yesterday, Law Minister Farooq Naek and the five-member Supreme Court bench agreed on a draft letter and the letter is to be made public — presumably to prevent the government from backing out of its commitment. Since December 2009, when the NRO judgment was handed down, the government has played politics with the letter while the court has appeared inordinately interested in a single letter. Befitting the murky ways of Pakistan, it’s not quite clear what caused the apparent change of heart on the government’s side in deciding finally to write the letter and why the court was willing to give the law minister so much leeway while the government appeared to continue with its games. Indeed, even as late as Tuesday, the government appeared ready to challenge the court once again. Then, suddenly, on Wednesday a quick agreement was reached.

Perhaps though, it is best not to look a gift horse in the mouth. Whatever the reasons, the end of the Swiss letter saga is a welcome one. Countless hours of the court have been wasted, a prime minister has been dispensed with, the government has held innumerable meetings to discuss the minutiae of the letter, endless debates have been held at the very highest levels of the coalition on the merits of writing or not writing the letter — it all became a little too much, even by the peculiar standards of Pakistani politics and the law. Had the end come earlier, the government may — but only may — have given greater attention to more pressing matters of governance. In any case, with a general election on the horizon, the conclusion of the affair may steer the narrative away from the tale of victimhood and allow voters to focus on genuine matters, i.e. the government’s performance in office and whether it deserves to get another five years. As for the court, perhaps it can now broaden its focus to include matters of more importance than a mere letter that may or may not have any meaningful consequences for anyone.

Blasts in Sindh

October 11th, 2012

While there has been criticism of the new Sindh People’s Local Government law, matters took an ugly turn on Tuesday. The residences of six PPP leaders in different Sindh towns were attacked with low-intensity explosive devices. The attacks came days after a PPP public meeting in Khairpur was targeted by gunmen, killing a number of party workers. Pamphlets belonging to the Sindhudesh Liberation Army were recovered from several of the targeted locations in Tuesday’s attacks. This is the same outfit that in the past has been held responsible for orchestrating small blasts targeting railway lines and bank branches in Sindh. There are indications that militant elements sympathetic to the nationalist cause in Sindh may be using the SLA tag. The PPP’s erstwhile allies in the Sindh Assembly have condemned the attacks, but this has been qualified with criticism of the new LG law. Condemnation from nationalist parties has been even more lukewarm, with some leaders supporting conspiracy theories that the government orchestrated the blasts itself.

Denunciation of the violence must be unambiguous, as terrorism is not a legitimate method of protest. If all parties fail to condemn the attacks it will establish a dangerous precedent — that it is okay to use violence if one disagrees with a law or government policy. Parliament is the best forum to raise objections to a law, while for those parties outside the legislature there exist peaceful, democratic methods of protest. The recent attacks need to be properly investigated to uncover the perpetrators. Also, the PPP needs to engage those parties that are peacefully opposing the new LG law and lend a sympathetic ear to their concerns. While such dastardly attacks should not lead to compromises, the PPP can lower the temperature by consulting opponents of the law and making amendments where legitimate loopholes exist.

Moment of truth

October 12th, 2012

For once, and at long last, Pakistanis appear to have woken up to the consequences of the extremism that has been allowed to take root in our country. The reaction to the attack on Malala Yousufzai is significant not just because of its scale and outrage, but because it is marked by something that is depressingly rare — across-the-board condemnation of the Taliban. A handful of voices, even in parliament, have tried to link the incident to America’s role in Pakistan or implied that it was Malala’s own fault. Refreshingly, though, these have been drowned out by an outpouring of anger reflected in the strongly worded condemnation of the attackers in the National Assembly and Senate, the army chief’s resolve against the “twisted ideology” of the perpetrators, extensive media coverage, and civil society efforts from protest rallies to prayers for Malala in schools. For once, the focus is on the threat to Pakistan from the intolerance in its own society, not on devising conspiracy theories, blaming foreign powers or coming up with justifications for terrorist acts.

But where is this near-universal outcry when Shias are killed in Quetta or Gilgit, when mentally challenged or juvenile targets of blasphemy accusations are burned alive or imprisoned, and passers-by die in attacks against security installations? The victims of those acts may not necessarily be children or rights activists, but they are every bit as innocent as Malala. And yet it took the particularly jarring targeting of a particularly brave child to jolt Pakistanis and their leaders out of their doubts about, and desensitisation to, the threat that violent extremism poses to our security and way of life.

Which makes it all the more important to make the most of this moment of national consensus. Parliament has demanded accountability and the army has said it will “fight, regardless of the cost”. But what actions will these words lead to? When anger erupted in 2009 over the video of a girl being flogged in Swat, the next step was clear: a defined set of people had set up a state within a state in a specific area, and it had to be dismantled. This time the next steps are less clear-cut and the enemy harder to pin down, but that shouldn’t become a reason not to take action. The military needs to analyse why its efforts against the Taliban have failed and what is needed next in terms of military action, and where. Politicians and civil society need to prop up the current national consensus against extremism so that it doesn’t die down. This is not a moment Pakistan can afford to waste.

Slander or fair criticism?

October 12th, 2012

The debate has always been on and will continue. A restraining order by the Islamabad High Court to the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority has added greater urgency to the discussion about freedom of expression and law in the Pakistani context. The order asked Pemra to ensure that nothing defamatory of the superior judges is aired by the television channels. Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui of the IHC has called the Pemra chairman and the federal secretary of information and broadcasting on Oct 16 to explain the code of conduct evolved to prevent the airing of scandalous material. The restraining order has drawn a strong response by some leading lawyers, one of whom compared it with martial law directives of the past, remarking: “nobody should be afraid of the truth.” This is an important point since it is the search for the truth which brings new laws in place of old debilitating ones and that also allows for a liberal interpretation of the text concerned. Strict adherence to the text could block fair criticism and consequently stall the process of constant reformation of society and the law.

The counter argument in this case seeks to defend the honourable judges against ‘scandalous’ statements on the basis of existing laws. Pemra does have a rule book on what can be allowed on the channels and it can be pressed into strictly implementing this code. It has also been said that “no one can conduct a slanderous press conference against …any of the judges of the superior courts, as under the constitution the relevant forum for their trial is the Supreme Judicial Council not television channels”. Two points arise. One, if all are equal before the law, what protection does the latter offer to others, for example politicians and government functionaries, who are so routinely lambasted on television? Surely there are legal and political forums available where these routine victims of media trials can be held accountable. Two, while the tone in which a grievance is expressed can be upsetting, the grievance seeking the notice of a court needs to be addressed nonetheless — in accordance with the magnanimity of the independent office.

Neglect of seniors

October 12th, 2012

Senior citizens are amongst the most vulnerable of Pakistan’s many disadvantaged groups. According to figures from the United Nations Population Fund, the number of people over 60 in this country is more than 10 million. The combination of an insensitive state and society means that many senior citizens here do not get the care and support they deserve in their old age. Rights activists point out that the elderly face a tougher situation in urban areas as more traditional family structures in rural areas serve as a safety net. There is some good news in this regard, as a seminar in Islamabad was told by an official of the capital administration and development ministry on Wednesday that a draft law to protect the rights of seniors would be presented in the National Assembly ‘soon’. However, it should be noted that the draft bill has been in existence since 2007; it has come close to being passed yet bureaucratic hurdles have prevented the bill’s adoption.

The draft law covers several areas that would make the lives of the elderly easier. It envisages the setting up of a senior citizens’ welfare council. It also calls for separate counters for seniors, discounts on medicines and medical tests, discounts on rail, road and air travel as well as tax relief measures. A Rs1bn endowment fund for seniors in need of financial assistance has also been proposed. Along with legal safeguards, society too needs to modify its attitude; it should stop treating elders like a burden and start thinking of them as assets. The government needs to expedite the passage of the bill and set up a seniors’ welfare council so that a framework can be put in place to enable the elderly in Pakistan to spend their golden years comfortably and with dignity.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Policy on militancy

October 13th, 2012

Strong words from the army at a time of intense emotions over the attack on 14-year-old Malala are an important addition to the national revulsion at the Taliban and the way of life they seek to impose on Pakistan. Important as it is to have clarity in the national discourse about the Taliban — something the religious right even now is seeking to obfuscate by talking of conspiracies and bringing up red herrings — what is equally, if not more, essential, is to have the determination to build and then implement a clear strategy against militancy. At a meeting of the senior-most officers of the armed forces convened by Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Shameem Wyne on Thursday, the armed forces did try and lay down a marker against the Taliban. In tone and tenor, it was in keeping with the straight talk of Gen Kayani on Aug 14 and will help dispel some of the propaganda being spread by those sympathetic to the Taliban and their cause.

But — and this is a critical qualification — the strongest of words will not substitute for meaningful policy. And policy will never be meaningful until a fundamental decision is taken: a zero-tolerance policy towards militancy. Only from that starting point will a clear and coherent strategy emerge and only from there can we have a chance of definitively rescuing Pakistan from the grip of militancy and the non-violent extremism that creates an enabling environment for violent action. Too much attention is paid to the details sometimes — which groups should be taken on first and where, what should be done about North Waziristan, how should Pakistan adjust its preference for a Pakhtun-dominated set-up in Afghanistan. All these are very important questions in their own right and intrinsic to solving the riddle of militancy but they do have the unfortunate effect of detracting from a core understanding: until Pakistan adopts a zero-tolerance policy towards violent militancy and its superficially non-violent extremist counterpart, the country will slip deeper and deeper into the vortex of instability and insecurity.

Given the unfortunate political history of Pakistan, the idea that a zero-tolerance policy towards militancy is state policy can only come if the military lays down that marker. Through its actions it must make it clear to its civilian counterparts and the public that the stated policy is in fact the actual policy. Of course, when it comes to rolling back the infrastructure of jihad, the armed forces will need the civilian leadership to exhibit courage and leadership too. But the first step must be taken by the men in uniform.

Gas woes

October 13th, 2012

The country has been in the grip of a severe gas shortage for several years now. The demand and supply gap has been increasing by the day, not least because of the rapid growth in demand from domestic and transport consumers. But little has been done in the last four years to plug this gap either by increasing domestic production through new discoveries or importing gas through a pipeline from Iran or in the form of liquefied natural gas. A senior official of the Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd has informed a Senate committee that gas shortages will peak to 1bcfd in January from the existing 566mmcfd. Some estimates project that shortages will rise to 1.8bcfd. Punjab will again suffer the most because it will be sharing maximum shortages due to Article 158 of the constitution. This gives the first right to natural gas to the people of the province where the resource is located. Until recently, shortages were equally distributed among all the provinces. As the supply gap widened, many in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which like Balochistan have gas reserves of their own, went to the courts to invoke this constitutional provision. As a consequence, Punjab’s economy has suffered massive economic losses due to industrial closures, production cuts and job and export losses, which have triggered violent riots across the province.

The government has taken steps recently to bridge the gap. The new petroleum policy offers price incentives to oil companies to make new investments in this area and also increase output from the existing fields. It has also decided to import 800mmcfd of LNG per day through two long-term projects in the private sector and 200mmcfd through a short-term SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) project in the public sector. While it will take a long while to implement the private projects, the government can help the industry and protect jobs by escalating work on the SPV project and also accepting the Indian offer of 200mmcfd LNG through a pipeline to be laid between Bathinda and Lahore. With an election anticipated, the government must act quickly to show it is capable of solving energy problems.

A welcome addition

October 13th, 2012

It is indeed laudable that Pakistan has become the first country in South Asia to introduce the pneumococcal vaccine as part of the state’s Expanded Programme on Immunisation. With the addition of the anti-pneumonia vaccine, the EPI will now cover nine vaccine-preventable diseases. As per estimates, over 350,000 children under five die in Pakistan every year; pneumonia is said to be responsible for nearly 20 per cent of these deaths. The vaccine campaign has been initiated in Punjab and the federal capital, with Sindh due to follow. It is an expensive vaccine, yet international agencies have managed to procure it for the state at reduced cost: most of the financing will be borne by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation.

While the addition of the vaccine should be welcomed, there are indications that the state still accords low priority to public health issues. For example, the prime minister was supposed to launch the vaccine in Islamabad earlier in the week yet did not show up. Though his appearance would have been largely symbolic, it would have sent a positive message to citizens as well as the international community that Pakistan takes the health of its children seriously. Also, the government has mostly focused on polio eradication, perhaps because of international scrutiny of Pakistan for its inability to wipe out the disease. While the fight against polio is crucial, the health authorities must give equal attention to other diseases grouped under the EPI umbrella. Regular public awareness campaigns need to be undertaken informing parents and the medical community about the importance of the EPI. It must also be ensured that vaccines are available in remote and low-income areas; awareness campaigns in these two areas are particularly important. With strong commitment and proper planning, it is possible to reduce child mortality in Pakistan.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Balochistan ‘consensus’

October 14th, 2012

All significant statements on the national level these days lead to Balochistan. Last month, Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the self-exiled Baloch leader, came up with his six-point demands for the state to start the process towards normality in Balochistan. Then, some 10 days ago, Gen Ashfaq Kayani pledged the army’s support for any political process within the constitution for an end to the province’s woes — also saying that the armed forces abided by the government’s directives. The momentum picked up when, within the span of a few hours on Friday, both the National Assembly and the Supreme Court added their weight to the ‘campaign’ for a solution to Balochistan. In Quetta, the apex court strongly censured the provincial government and sternly asked the centre to look for remedies — within the constitution. The court said that while Chief Minister Nawab Aslam Raisani’s administration had lost the authority to govern, all the federal government had done was to deploy the Frontier Corps in the province. Around the same time, in Islamabad, the National Assembly adopted a rare unanimous resolution seeking an ‘all-parties’ commission to “rectify past mistakes and ensure the supremacy of the constitution, the rule of law and dispensation of justice” in Balochistan. The House recognised that the urgently sought commission will also have to include parties outside the elected assembly to be effective.

In theory, this appears to be a concerted push towards exit from a precarious situation. But Balochistan and its people have for far too long been victims of clashing interpretations and positions which are not always reflected in statements and vows for upholding the constitution. In fact, these grand pledges often thwart a realistic look at the issues.

The problem in the province is taking ever newer dimensions and the bomb blasts at Sibi and Dera Bugti recently are brutal reminders of the intent on the other side. Against this threat, the allusion to the need of political process would mean reconfirmation of Balochistan not just as a law and order issue but as a political problem. An earnest follow-up would require more than a rhetorical recourse to the constitution. The politicians are supposedly in charge of the effort, yet they happen to be the least trusted and the most easily blamed. They are also the ones who have set an example by owning up to “past mistakes”.

The Supreme Court order, the resolution by parliament, the soldier’s oath will only live up to their theoretical promise if the academic exercise of swearing by the constitution yields to an honest and frank acceptance and assigning of responsibilities with regard to the parties involved.

Ticking bomb

October 14th, 2012

In an increasingly resource-scarce world, Pakistan is a particularly populous country. ‘Youth bulge’ is the term used to describe a situation where the single largest section of society — a hundred million, or 65 per cent of the overall population — comprises people under the age of 25. The bland term masks a demographic disaster in the making, given that according to UN figures, 32 per cent of the people aged between 15 and 29 years are illiterate, less than six per cent have acquired technical skills and only 2.5 per cent have received on-the-job training. In a country where the state seems to have neither the will nor the capacity to invest in educational and other infrastructure, the workforce is increasing at the rate of three per cent annually — which the UNDP refers to as “alarming”. What we desperately need, if there is to be any chance at all of a brighter future, is a sharp decline in the rate at which the population is growing. The problem is not a general lack of awareness about the importance of family planning. According to some estimates, some 25 per cent of married women in the country would opt for family planning but are unable to access relevant resources for one reason or another.

In this situation, then, it is welcome news that the Aman Foundation, a local not-for-profit trust, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have signed a five-year framework agreement under which $5m will be invested by each party in addressing the gaps in reproductive health and family planning services in the country. The reiteration of the importance of family planning has been at the top of the list of the country’s priorities for most of its existence, yet while the population growth rate has seen a slowdown, it is still at unsustainably high levels. The non-governmental sector has played an important role in this regard, and the state needs to match its efforts. While partnerships such as that signed in Dubai between the Aman and Gates’ foundations can play a key role, the state must not be lulled into reneging on its own responsibilities.

Health threat

October 14th, 2012

As tap water in Pakistan is of poor quality, many citizens — cutting across economic lines — opt for bottled water. Some estimates suggest 50 per cent of Pakistanis don’t have access to clean drinking water. Catering to this demand there has been considerable growth in the number of companies selling bottled water in the country. However, government regulation of the industry is, by all accounts, weak. As reported, high levels of arsenic have been found in samples of 10 brands of bottled water. According to the quarterly report of the Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources, some of the samples contained levels of arsenic way over the allowable limit. Other samples were found to contain high levels of sodium and potassium. PCRWR officials say that after the errant brands are identified and their names made public, they shut down operations only to resurface after an interval with new names. Data collected by the PCRWR shows that over the past decade, every year the number of water brands declared unsafe remains consistently high; the fact the number is not going down means that while the reporting authorities appear to be doing their job, the state’s surveillance and enforcement mechanism is failing.

The number of brands declared unsafe may only be the tip of the iceberg, as in Karachi alone there are countless factories churning out substandard bottled water. Reports of corruption within the state’s quality-control mechanism persist, as it has been alleged that some brand owners pay off the inspection authorities. The Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority needs to improve its performance while those officials involved in fudging reports or not taking action against unsafe water brands need to be removed. Considering the risk contaminated water brands pose to public health, the state cannot afford to be complacent in this regard.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Faceless and forgotten

October 15th, 2012

Such is the cycle of news in Pakistan that citizens have had to become inured to tragedy being elbowed out of the headlines by horror; one outrage follows another in the grim progression of this country’s tale. That this process has not quite left the citizenry entirely desensitised is evident in the storm of protest that has erupted after the murder attempt on Malala Yousufzai. But the flurry of rapidly changing headlines also means that the citizenry is caught in what is immediate — issues or tragedies are rarely resolved or addressed, they merely drop out of the collective consciousness. Nowhere is this pattern more evident than in the situation faced by nearly five million people in parts of Sindh and Balochistan that were hit by devastating floods just weeks ago, some of them for the third year in a row. While they remain in desperate need, as far as the citizenry as a whole is concerned they have been rendered faceless and voiceless, and thus there is hardly any pressure on either state or society to intervene in a meaningful fashion.

Their plight is desperate indeed. According to the World Food Programme, over a million people in the five worst-affected districts are in need of food assistance, while hundreds of thousands of people are living either in temporary camps or simply under tarpaulins, waiting for the waters to subside. As the UN launched an appeal for donations over the weekend, its Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that in some areas people are still being rescued by boat. And even after the waters recede, most of these people will need assistance to rebuild devastated lives and livelihoods, given that with some 3,800 square kilometres of land still flooded, the prospects for planting the Rabi crop (which is sown in winter) look remote. The focus needs to return to these silent millions, and efforts stepped up to allay their misery. Reportedly, the main challenges to expanding the response are funding gaps and access. While the average citizen can perhaps not do much about the latter, surely the former is within control.

Childhood denied

October 15th, 2012

A recently released United Nations report paints a disturbing picture of child marriages in the world. According to its findings, if current trends continue, within the next decade 142 million girls will be married by the time they are 18. This translates into 14.2 million each year, or 37,000 girls married each day. The highest proportion of such marriages — 46 per cent — occur in South Asia. Local studies suggest that around 30 per cent of marriages in Pakistan are those of girls below 18.

More often than not, being born a girl in Pakistan carries with it inherent disadvantages — less access to education, healthcare, legal rights etc. However, nothing quite so devastatingly compounds these as early marriage. Aside from the emotional trauma of being cast into a relationship with adult responsibilities that a child is ill-equipped to handle, the long-term physical repercussions can be debilitating or even fatal. The UN report states that approximately 5,000 cases of obstetric fistula occur every year in Pakistan, with young girls disproportionately affected. The condition, which is one of the risks associated with early childbirth, results in urinary or faecal incontinence to varying degrees. Although in many instances it can be surgically treated, the dismal healthcare facilities in much of the country mean that most of these young sufferers bear their condition in silence and shame, and are often, in a twist of cruel irony, spurned by their husbands as well. Although the legal age for marriage in Pakistan is 16 years — in most countries it is 18 — evidence indicates that this law is repeatedly flouted especially where poverty and patriarchy conspire to deprive girls of their childhood. While it is heartening to note that a number of such marriages have been prevented by timely media reporting, a concerted awareness campaign in the media is needed to root out this despicable practice in its entirety.

Civilian culpability

October 15th, 2012

With more than a dozen killed and scores injured, the suicide attack in Darra Adamkhel that apparently was meant to target an anti-Taliban lashkar leadership but ended up killing and injuring ordinary civilians is yet another grim reminder that all is far from well in the tribal areas and adjoining districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But grim reminder after grim reminder has come and gone and still the state is struggling to contain, let alone eliminate, the threat from militancy. Few areas have truly been stabilised despite operations in six of the seven agencies of Fata and in Swat and other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Today, the Tirah valley nestled between the Khyber and Kurram agencies and North Waziristan are the areas in which the state has virtually no control and yet this intolerable state of affairs is somehow tolerated on various grounds. While some concerns cannot be entirely dismissed, there is a sense in more independent quarters outside the army-led security establishment that the factors cited in delaying action are neither as serious nor as unresolvable as sometimes argued.

Undoubtedly, given the peculiar political history of this country and the near-total control over security policy that the army-led establishment has, the resolve to stamp out militancy will have to come from the military. But that argument, while true, has had the unfortunate effect of deflecting attention from the civilian leadership’s culpability in the present state of affairs. While a military strategy is the fundamental plank of recovering parts of Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from the grip of militancy, by itself it can never be an adequate strategy. Development, governance, education, jobs — all of those are central elements of any winning long-term strategy against militancy. And none of those elements can be provided by the armed forces because that is simply not what they are meant for or capable of. So without the civilians stepping up and doing what they are by definition expected to do — to devise and implement policy in a range of areas — the fiendishly complex riddle of militancy will never be solved.

There is also another element that the civilians have fallen terribly short of: putting pressure on and working with the establishment to establish a zero-tolerance policy towards militancy. At the moment, it seems that the job of making the establishment recognise the folly of its ways has been left to the media, to civil society and to individual voices. The politicians can and must do better.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Skewed narrative

October 16th, 2012

Let's get one thing straight about the attack on Malala Yousufzai. It is not comparable to drone strikes. It is not comparable to the Lal Masjid operation. Nor is it likely to be comparable to other incidents the religious right might use to try to divert attention from the particular evil of this one. Because here is what this incident was: a deliberate attack on a specific teenage girl in retaliation for her activism for girls’ education and opposition to Islamist militancy, a harmless, non-violent cause the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan happen not to like. Drone strikes may be unacceptable in their current form and end up killing innocent children, but doing so is not their intent. The figure of 1,200 women killed in the Lal Masjid operation is highly dubious; this paper’s investigations had indicated that most women left the compound during the amnesty granted before the operation. And yet moves are afoot to position these events as comparisons in an attempt to dampen the widespread recognition of the Malala incident for what it was — the targeting of an innocent girl by an outfit that does not believe in the most basic of human rights and is prepared to attack even children to promote its regressive ideas.

These attempts to fudge the truth and make false comparisons indicate that the religious right feels threatened by the public outcry against Malala’s attackers. But it is also a chilling reminder of the degree to which most right-wing groups harbour sympathies for violent extremism. The Difa-i-Pakistan Council is an obvious member of this club, but even leaders of the more mainstream JUI-F and JI have questioned the focus on Malala, compared the attack to other events or dismissed its real implications by declaring it a conspiracy to trigger an operation in North Waziristan. And while secular political parties have not been as quick to do so, most have shied away from naming the TTP and demonstrating the single-mindedness that is needed to dismantle that organisation’s ability to terrorise Pakistan.

Battle lines have been drawn across the political landscape, and few groups are taking as courageous and clear a stand as is needed. The reaction in the first couple of days after Malala was attacked had inspired hope that a political consensus against the TTP, not just violent extremism, might be formed. But that has not taken place, despite the public’s demonstrated anger at the terrorist group. And as long as political forces hold back, the military will have a reason to hold back too. The moment Pakistan should not have wasted is being squandered before our very eyes.

Parties, partings, partners

October 16th, 2012

Pre-poll partnerships are difficult. One, they come about when they do, without the partners knowing each other’s actual vote value. Two, having to chisel pre-poll speeches to please allies can be inhibitive and counter-productive. Even when alliance talk is forging ahead in Pakistan in anticipation of a general election, most of these projected groupings will probably not materialise. The reason: in a country divided among so many claimants, results are more difficult to predict this time than ever before. Nonetheless, smaller players who must tag themselves to bigger challengers for power will continue to talk about the ‘urgent’ need for joint fronts e.g. the Jamaat-i-Islami which has been courting Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf. The PTI was in all probability JI’s second choice after JI was not entertained by PML-N. This was not surprising since as the long-accepted alternative to the PPP, the Sharifs are serious enough contenders to be risking embracing anyone who doesn’t enjoy too clean a reputation internationally. On the other hand, Imran Khan has an additional factor to consider. He has worked hard on garnering anti-America, anti-Nato, pro-native sentiment. Should he now be prepared to share it with the JI or, for the latter’s sake, put at stake his appeal as the ‘real’ alternative?

Some relatively smaller players want a grand alliance against the PPP- ANP-MQM-PMLQ combine — even when there is no alliance between the PPP and MQM or PPP and ANP. Many of the president’s allies in power want to keep open their options for a possible coalition with other parties post-election. The PPP itself would have liked to ensure more options but for the rather difficult position it finds itself in over its ties with Punjab and the PML-Q, which has emerged as the most reliable of all of Mr Zardari’s partners to help him stretch the present term. Thus the current PPP PML-Q hobnobbing is aimed more at preservation in the current situation. It is an untried fusion waiting for unknown box office response. The by-elections next month, which the PPP and PML-Q will fight jointly, will show the potential and viability of their alliance.

Why at this time?

October 16th, 2012

In a move that has left many people around the world, including in that region itself, shaking their heads in disbelief, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the European Union. Why on earth at this time, people are asking, when the EU is in the grip of a severe debt crisis to which a solution is still being sought. Given that many EU members are facing grave economic difficulties and social unrest, with riots in Athens and Madrid, the decision is strangely evocative of the world inhabited by Alfred E. Neuman.

The logic, as explained by the Nobel committee’s chairman Thorbjoern Jagland, does have some currency: the formation of the EU brought peace to a continent that rent itself apart with two world wars in which tens of millions of people died. While announcing the award in Oslo on Friday, Mr Jagland said the Nobel committee “wishes to focus on what it sees as the EU’s most important result: the successful struggle for peace and reconciliation and for democracy and human rights”. Nevertheless, many citizens, in Greece in particular, where the debt crisis is having a crippling effect, are viewing the award as an insult to and a mockery of their situation. Indeed, the fact of the matter is that while the EU’s success in uniting the region is significant, the dire straits the single-currency zone faces today has perhaps greater relevance for Europeans, given that they are feeling its effects at present. People may well ask why, freed from the shackles of war, they are now being held hostage to poverty and reduced social benefits. Has the committee lost its grip on reality to the extent that it may one day award itself the prize for making the ‘right’ choice in identifying groups of individuals that have contributed to peace?

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

In the balance

October 17th, 2012

The will-they, won’t-they pendulum on North Waziristan seemed to momentarily slip towards the possibility of a military operation but it appears, in fact, to resolutely be stuck on, no, there will be no significant military operation in North Waziristan any time soon. The army claims the launching of an operation is a ‘political decision’ thereby seemingly tossing the matter into the civilians’ lap, while the political leadership hems and haws and occasionally deploys Interior Minister Rehman Malik to add to the confusion. In theory, the decision to launch a full-scale military operation in North Waziristan ought to lie with the civilian leadership. In acceptable practice, the decision ought to be taken by the civilians in close consultation with the army. In reality, the decision will be taken by the army itself.

That reality is very significant in the context of the ‘national consensus’ that the army insists must be created before an operation in North Waziristan can be launched. But what has the army-led security establishment done to try and create the much-touted national consensus? Not very much — unlike during the run-up to earlier military operations in other parts of the north-west.

If North Waziristan has militants of every stripe projecting power from there into Pakistan proper, Afghanistan and beyond, it is also a black hole of information — nothing really gets out. Privately, senior security officials admit that the panoply of militant groups must be taken on sooner rather than later if the security situation in the country is to slowly be pulled back towards normality. Privately, senior security officials admit that from Al Qaeda to the Haqqanis and from Punjabi Taliban to foreign militants from countries as diverse as the Maldives — yes, the Maldives — to Sudan and groups such as the Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs, North Waziristan has become a global hub of terrorism and militancy. But next to nothing has been done to educate the Pakistani public about the nature of the threat in North Waziristan and what the proper response to it is. How, then, will the national consensus for a military operation in North Waziristan be developed?

And if the mapping out of the threat has been poor enough, even less is known about the army’s strategy to eventually fight it. Are the Haqqanis eventually in line for some kind of financial and military squeeze? Is the policy really to slowly win over some groups temporarily to clear the way for a fight with others? Is there a plan to prevent militant leaders from escaping the battle zone as they have in operations elsewhere? If Pakistanis are told nothing, not even the barest details, how can they form a consensus?

Need for oversight

October 17th, 2012

Security guards’ involvement in the looting on Monday of a van carrying cash is not the first case of its kind in Karachi or in other Pakistani cities. As in many such cases the crime was committed with commando-style precision: two motorcyclists trailed the van that belonged to a currency exchange company; the guards-turned-robbers inside the vehicle had it stopped at a given point, held the manager inside the van hostage, transferred the loot, estimated at over Rs10m, to those on motorcycles and all four vanished. A few hours later, gunmen robbed a bank at Gulistan-i-Jauhar, killed a security guard, injured another and decamped with Rs3.6 million. While in one case, the security guards turned criminals, in the other they were the victims. This highlights the dilemma the authorities face, because private guards generally now outnumber the police and are very much needed. A wholesale denunciation of all security guards and their employers would be unfair, because quite often those on duty fight back and get killed, and their sacrifice needs recognition. The issue is how to eliminate the black sheep among the tens of thousands of uniformed security guards throughout the country and make security at banks and other enterprises foolproof. We also know that many security agencies are not very meticulous in following government regulations.

Most security agencies stand registered with the government, but merely screening the employers is not enough; what is needed is the vetting of every single candidate through a system that is modern and comprehensive and not confined to routine police verification since that can be managed easily, especially in the rural areas. Nor should verification be a one-time affair. Given the extent of organised crime with suspected links to terrorism, all security guards need to be vetted yearly to guard against a possible change in outlook. Further, every person performing guard duties and carrying arms should be readily identifiable as such. Regrettably, instances are growing where gunmen in mufti accompany certain persons. This is an affront to citizens, to say nothing of being openly threatening. The government must ensure that all private guards don uniforms.

Spying janitors

October 17th, 2012

Now that we’ve established lawmakers should not be dual nationals, let’s extend this principle to government-employed janitors, gardeners and peons too. They might, after all, overhear details about the actual pace of development of our nuclear programme or what we really think about China while they are watering the plants or fetching tea. Who knows whom they might leak such sensitive state secrets to. Speaking of which, the bureaucrats they would be fetching the tea for should also obviously come clean about any other passports they might be concealing as a way to cover up their divided loyalties. As should the chairman of the proposed federal drug regulatory authority, so that he or she is in no danger of colluding with foreign pharmaceutical firms.

The truly unfortunate part of all this is that none of it is made up. Punjab has asked all government employees, from top bureaucrats to support staff, to submit proof they are not dual nationals — despite the fact that as Pakistani citizens they have the right to simultaneously maintain the passports of certain other countries. Meanwhile, the opposition has demanded in the National Assembly that the person in charge of the much-needed central drug regulatory authority not be a dual citizen. There, is, of course, a simple explanation for this extension of the principle to jobs far from the country’s top public offices (which it makes sense to limit to those who have no other passports): demonise dual nationality and earn populist credentials while positioning yourself in opposition to a ruling party that doesn’t even want legislators to have to meet the constitutional, and far more justifiable, requirement that lawmakers not be dual citizens. So what if this strategy results in a witch-hunt of dual nationals who quite legally happen to work anywhere in government? If it serves a political purpose, no initiative is too absurd.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Welcome consensus

October 18th, 2012

The eventual, unanimous passage of the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan Bill, 2012 by the National Assembly on Tuesday is a step in the right direction. The consensus achieved underscores the ability of this set of lawmakers to come together for a common cause. It vindicates the feeling that, with a little more purpose, this House could have had an even more productive record than it has shown overall. On Tuesday, the not so minor step of removing the single word ‘only’ was agreed to by all parties. “…[No person shall be appointed as the CEO or director of the authority unless he is a citizen of Pakistan only”, read the original draft. The MQM sought the deletion of ‘only’ from the line, opening up the way for Pakistanis with dual nationality to hold the posts. This was in sync with the position of most parties in the National Assembly.

The need for regulating this sphere has in recent times been highlighted by unfortunate deaths resulting from the consumption of spurious or low-quality drugs and by scandals surrounding the granting of quotas for substances used in the manufacture of medicines. Even without these high-profile incidents, the greed of pharmaceutical companies is well known, as is the fact that other makers and suppliers of fake, substandard drugs have remained a threat to public health. Governments have failed to take due action and, in return, have exposed themselves to allegations of not just apathy but collusion with such unscrupulous manufacturers and suppliers. Whatever mechanism the country had for controlling the sector was made largely ineffective by the transfer of the subject of health to the provinces under the 18th Amendment, and reminders were sent to the legislators that they needed to move fast and decisively on this.

The bill, which now needs a nod from the Senate to become law, raises genuine hope about regulation of the drug sector. One of the drug authority’s vital tasks would be to streamline the inter-provincial trade of drugs. The authority will also help define the federal government’s response and role in relation to obligations and commitments with international organisations. Not least, it will help develop ethical criteria on drug promotion, marketing and advertising, and on the rational use of drugs, on research and development. The authority “shall undertake measures to ensure self-sufficiency … to create a conducive environment for manufacture, import and promotion of export”. This is not an easy agenda but the Drug Regulatory Authority bill is an expression of intent to allow experts to oversee the sector. So long as the emphasis is on merit, so long as the authority is free of politics and is willing to improve its working while learning through experience, success can be achieved.

No money for dams

October 18th, 2012

The financial constraints facing Wapda are likely to hit another hydropower project — Gomal Zam dam. The contractor, the Frontier Works Organisation, has put the authority on notice for immediate clearance of its dues of Rs4bn. In case Wapda fails to do so, the work on the dam will be stopped. It means the commissioning of the project, which was scheduled to be completed five years ago, will be further delayed. The nearly completed dam will produce 17.5MW electricity and irrigate 191,000 acres of land in Tank and D.I. Khan. Gomal Zam is not the first hydropower project hit by the paucity of funds. There are many others, like Neelum-Jhelum, while the work on the 4,500MW Diamer-Bhasha dam is yet to start because of unavailability of financing.

Several factors — security conditions, fund shortage and no political consensus — can be cited as responsible for the failure to develop Pakistan’s hydropower potential. Indeed, the scarcity of funds for new projects remains on top of the list. Hydropower generation is crucial for Pakistan not only to ensure its energy and water security but also to change the existing generation mix for providing affordable electricity to consumers. Currently, we have an installed hydel generation capacity of just 6,500MW — 13 per cent of the country’s estimated hydro-power potential of over 50,000MW. India too has developed just 15 per cent of its hydropower potential, but is making fast progress on several projects to change the hydel-thermal power mix to 40:60. We, on the other hand, are doing little to exploit this natural source of affordable power at the expense of economic development. No significant project has been undertaken since the completion of the Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project with a capacity of 1,400MW almost a decade ago. That project came decades after Tarbela. Wapda claims that it could add 6,000MW of hydel power to the system in five years and another 15,000 by 2020 provided it receives uninterrupted funding. It is time that the government spared some funds for hydel generation to prevent further damage to the economy due to power shortages and high energy prices.

Polio drive in Balochistan

October 18th, 2012

It is indeed ironic that on the day an advertisement was published in a number of papers proclaiming the ‘achievements’ of the Balochistan government — particularly the province’s chief minister — two news reports were also printed highlighting the frequent acts of violence that occur in this troubled province. A vaccinator taking part in an anti-polio campaign was shot dead on the outskirts of Quetta, while four men belonging to the Shia Hazara community were also gunned down in the Balochistan capital on Tuesday. The frequently targeted Hazara have become Balochistan’s most vulnerable community, while the targeting of the vaccinator is also cause for concern, especially considering that Balochistan is one of the key areas of polio transmission in Pakistan. In the face of such rampant lawlessness, the Balochistan government is hardly qualified to trumpet its ‘achievements’.

At this point it is not clear if the vaccinator was shot because of his association with the anti-polio drive, or due to some other motive. What is certain is that the attack affected the campaign, as vaccinations in several parts of Quetta were suspended following the murder. While no major incidents of intimidation of polio vaccination staff have previously been reported in Balochistan, the authorities need to keep their guard up, for elsewhere in the country opposition to the drive has manifested itself in unambiguously brutal ways. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has banned the campaign in parts of the tribal areas while in Karachi a local anti-polio campaigner was shot dead in July. The attack came just days after a foreign WHO consultant was targeted in the port city; the expert luckily survived. These incidents lend weight to calls that vaccination teams be provided security, especially in high-risk areas. The state cannot allow extremists to violently derail the anti-polio campaign and put the lives of countless children at risk.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A vicious circle

October 19th, 2012

When it comes to bringing suspected sectarian terrorists to justice in Pakistan, we seem to be moving in circles. Militants are captured and paraded by the police with much fanfare, locked up — then released due to ‘lack of evidence’. In the meantime, terrorist violence and targeted killings continue with frightening regularity. Hence, the capture of Hafiz Qasim Rasheed, the Sindh chief of a Lashkar-i-Jhangvi faction, announced by the police in Karachi on Wednesday, should be met with some circumspection. The suspect, believed to be involved in over 100 sectarian killings, has been arrested twice before but released on both occasions due to — once again — ‘lack of evidence’. Malik Ishaq, one of the founders of LJ and linked to 43 cases involving 70 murders, has also been either acquitted or granted bail in most cases. The reason? Lack of evidence. A report on Thursday also claimed one of Malala Yousufzai’s attackers was captured by security forces in 2009 but released as no evidence was found against him. There are allegations that sympathisers within the police and other state organs either suppress evidence against the militants or don’t work hard enough to collect it.

Simply capturing suspected militants and presenting them in front of the media is not enough. For there to be any permanent disruption of terrorist activities the captured men must be tried and punished so that they are not back on the streets soon after their capture. The militant captured in Karachi very clearly told mediapersons he would kill more people if given the chance. While statements like these make headlines, they are not enough to lead to a conviction; as per the law, only a statement recorded in front of a judicial magistrate has legal value.

Also, militants often deny earlier confessional statements in court. In many cases witnesses turn hostile for fear of their lives due to intimidation from militants. This can scuttle a strong case and is reflective of the state’s inability to make significant progress on an effective witness protection programme.

For militancy to be countered the justice system needs to deliver. A number of complementary steps should be taken to ensure suspected terrorists are convicted. These include proper investigations carried out by capable, unbiased officials, strong prosecution as well as a protection programme that gives witnesses the assurance that they or their families will not lose their lives for testifying against a terrorist. Protection must also be given to the judges, lawyers and police officers involved in the cases. More than anything else, the will of the state is required to convict and punish terrorists.

The hungry millions

October 19th, 2012

There was a time — not too far in the past — when the general reality in Pakistan was that while people were poor, few went to bed hungry. With an economy based on agriculture, a sector that constituted the single greatest source of employment, most citizens had access to enough food, even though of the most basic variety. This is no longer the case. Over the years, the number of citizens who do not have access to sufficient quantities of food has been steadily increasing, and caloric intake has been compromised in even middle-income households. The situation faced by the poor is extremely disturbing. For some time now, various groups have been sounding the alarm. Unicef last year likened the levels of malnutrition in post-flood Sindh to those in Chad and Niger, while Oxfam International said that over a quarter of the population was undernourished. A survey undertaken earlier during the year showed that two-thirds of the population spends between 50 and 70 per cent of income on food alone.

Despite these stark realities, Pakistan has failed to come up with a concerted action plan to fight hunger and malnutrition. Committees have been formed, persons appointed and much paper has been moved around, but little difference can be seen on the ground. On Tuesday, the Minister for National Food Security and Research Mir Israrullah Zehri informed the Senate that according to the National Nutrition Survey 2011 (conducted by the Benazir Income Support Programme) around 58 per cent of the population is food insecure, while nearly 30 per cent suffers hunger or severe hunger. It is unfortunate then that there has been no action, as in the case of the National Zero Hunger Programme announced earlier by the then prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. That announcement, Senator Zehri was forced to admit in the Senate this week, has yet to be given formal approval. Meanwhile, a draft Zero Hunger Action Plan prepared by the World Food Programme still lacks operational details. Time is indefensibly being wasted; it seems that our decision-makers have no idea of what it means to not know where the next meal is coming from.

Caught in the act

October 19th, 2012

The CCTV system is there to nab terrorists, thieves, shoplifters and other criminals. But here it has the habit of shooting the powerful in action. In Lahore alone, the CCTV has been guilty of spying on a PML-N lawmaker breaking the norms at the airport. It has also disclosed a credit card fraud, again involving a PML-N lawmaker. In its latest trick the CCTV has captured Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s daughter at a bakery, her finger raised at a young man identified as an employee. Further footage shows a youth being slapped and kicked by plainclothesmen outside the same bakery, watched closely by sleuths in Elite Force uniform. There is said to be a few hours’ gap between the two incidents but the two were linked in an FIR which took a whole nine days to lodge.

The FIR was registered on Oct 16 — only after the chief minister took notice of the incident upon his return from a foreign trip. By then, courtesy of the footage, there were plenty of people questioning why no case had been registered against Mr Sharif’s daughter. She is not seen in the footage where the boy is being beaten but allegations are that the thrashing was connected to her visit to the bakery a few hours earlier. Police and the PML-N have tried to de-link her from the affair; meanwhile her husband, who is not to be seen in either footage, courted arrest on Wednesday. This rather unexplained arrest came amid a rising chorus for equality before the law. The case is being dubbed as a test of Mr Sharif’s principles and casts a shadow on his politics. Those who have tried to get him over his Danish school delicacies — opponents who couldn’t quite stomach his sasti roti — are keen instead to have cake at his expense.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

A historic ruling

October 20th, 2012

The 1990 general election was rigged. The then army chief, ISI chief and president colluded to rig the election. And a special ‘election cell’ was established in the presidency to woo politicians and manipulate the election results. Yesterday was an important day in Pakistan’s political history. Not because the plot to keep the PPP out of power after Benazir Bhutto’s first government was sacked in 1990 was a secret but because it is now part of the official historical record, cemented in a Supreme Court order that has instructed the government to initiate unprecedented legal proceedings against a former army chief, a former DG ISI and sundry politicians implicated in a tawdry chapter of Pakistan’s political history.

Whether any meaningful action will be taken against those the SC has identified as having committed crimes is almost beside the point. While jail sentences and fines may be cathartic to some, to truly exorcise the ghosts of Pakistan’s undemocratic past it is perhaps more important that history be laid bare before the public in the grimiest of detail. President Ghulam Ishaq Khan is dead. Generals Beg and Durrani are alive but already mere historical footnotes. The biggest beneficiary of the 1990 election, Nawaz Sharif, is now an implacable opponent of military intervention and perhaps one whose years in exile have led to a democratic rebirth. And while Benazir Bhutto was killed in another terrible chapter in Pakistan’s history, her party has survived to steer Pakistan to the verge of the first democratic transition of power in many years. So Pakistan has already moved on in many ways. But if the past is to be prevented from repeating itself — and particularly with a general election on the horizon — the bald truth as stated by the SC is an essential part of turning the page on Pakistan’s undemocra-tic history once and for all.

The more complicated part will be to break the nexus between the security establishment and parts of the civilian political spectrum. For the ugly truth is that whenever the army has sought to manipulate the democratic process, it has found willing partners on the civilian side. Ambitious generals and politicians can be a toxic combination for the democratic project and one way of countering that would be to have more robust and transparent electoral laws and monitoring mechanisms. Even as the army has pulled back from serious electoral interference, in Balochistan and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in particular an army-politician nexus is feared at the next election. Now is the time to find ways to prevent that from occurring.

MMA is reincarnated

October 20th, 2012

In the absence of the Jamaat-i-Islami, the JUI-F’s decision to revive the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal has failed to create much of a splash. This is an altogether new MMA and JUI-F’s need for the alliance could be linked to its ties with the federal government. In the ruling coalition, Maulana Fazl was blamed for aiding the war on terror. Out of it, he was seen as a most friendly opposition. Lately, with one eye on the polls, the other on those seeking to steal his vote, his criticism of the government has become stronger. From the JUI-F’s perspective, as an alliance the MMA would send out the message that the JUI-F is back in the right spot and also facilitate acceptance of the party among at least its core voters.

There is more than one explanation why the JI stayed away from the alliance. One relates to the JUI-F’s being viewed as an ally of the current government while, during the same period, the JI championed many ‘anti-government’ causes. This could be a bigger factor behind the JI’s staying away from the MMA than any disagreement over the selection of MMA office bearers. A more compelling reason can be found in comparing the situation today with the one that led to the MMA’s creation more than a decade ago. When the MMA won the 2002 polls in the then NWFP, the crucial element was the absence of PML-N as a serious contender. It got votes that would have gone to the PML-N had the Sharifs been around. The Sharifs have since returned to stake a strong claim in the province. They have traditionally stayed close to the JI and at a distance from JUI-F. It was thought that the JI would be able to renew its old ties with PML-N, but this did not happen. Instead, the JI was pushed towards PTI, a new entrant which could eat deep into right-wing pockets in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Today’s realities dictate that the JI seek a partnership with either the PML-N or PTI for meaningful poll impact not only at the provincial level but also on the national scale.

Impact on Pakistan?

October 20th, 2012

With the spectre of double-dip recession looming, global economic leaders gathered in Tokyo for the World Bank-IMF annual meetings last week to debate ways of dealing with depressed growth and weak governments. Advanced economies are struggling to emerge from the financial crisis amid rising social discontent. Huge anti-austerity demonstrations in Europe regularly make headlines. In developing countries, where the situation is more complex with deeper inadequacies and insufficient means to cope, the global crisis has further curtailed options on development issues. The IMF forecasts a 3.3 per cent global output growth, down from 5.1 per cent in both 2010 and 2011 leading to projections of less than two per cent global growth in the current year. Hopes of expansion during 2012 were clouded by a sense of risk and fear at the gathering of finance ministers in Tokyo.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde, responding to the needs of changing times, hinted at revising her organisational position to deal with the fiscal stress. She endorsed findings of a recent study that Brussels and the IMF have underestimated the impact of austerity measures on growth. She said that fiscal policy needs to be appropriately calibrated to be as growth friendly as possible. How would the IMF change of heart play out for Pakistan that, it seems, could soon be knocking at its door for credit? There are fears that higher spending in an election year and depressed resource mobilisation and slow growth will widen the income-expenditure gap. Besides, the slowdown in remittances and export earnings against import payments and debt retirement is building pressure on foreign exchange reserves that, already depleted, could touch new lows. If leveraged properly the change in IMF outlook may improve prospects of striking a better deal with the key donor if the government decides to seek its support.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga