Date: Monday, February 22nd, 2016.

The dilemma that is the Steel Mills

The federal government has asked the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) to justify the retention of its employees, with the public-sector entity witnessing a virtual shutdown. It has directed the PSM management to invoke a 1968 law to cut back on the workforce and, with it, reduce the expenditures on employees. The directive comes after the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had already directed the lay-off of hundreds of daily-wage workers in an attempt to save money. The recent development, however, expands the scope of the lay-offs so as to include permanent employees as well.



The ECC has regularly approved salaries for PSM employees, releasing the amount despite the virtual closure of Pakistan’s largest industrial unit. Suspension of gas supplies and its failure to clear the dues it owed the SSGC has been the final straw for the public sector entity. In a recent interview, the chief executive of the PSM had said that the entity needed Rs9 billion just to see it through to June. The industrial unit has been incurring losses for a while now and it has suffered due to incessant oversupply of Chinese steel in the country as well as due to its outdated machinery and short-term strategies — a hallmark of Pakistani managers working for a state-owned entity.

Now, the federal government wants to settle the issue once and for all. It has been involved in a tussle with the Sindh government, which is unwilling to let the centre sell the PSM, but less-than-willing to do anything about sorting out the mess at the industrial unit either. No one appears to be willing to take responsibility for resolving the various problems faced by the PSM and not many buyers have shown interest in it. The PML-N now obviously feels that the solution is to start laying off employees, which could mean the virtual end of the PSM. We feel the PSM has taken the same path as that of PIA — running into losses and taxpayers’ money being pumped into it to bail it out, all to no avail. The government is choosing the easy way out here, but the fact remains that this will still not help it find a buyer for the PSM, which is the real dilemma it is facing.

Another set of goals

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were adopted in 2000 by all the member countries of the UN. A 15-year timeline was decided upon during which governments across the globe were going to try and end poverty, hunger and disease. Progress has been patchy and Pakistan is amongst the many countries which failed to achieve the goals. On February 19, the National Assembly adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for 2030 and called upon both the private and public sectors to work towards their achievement. The SDGs are aspirational, even more so than their predecessors. They aim towards sustainable and inclusive growth, an end to inequality, gender-based discrimination and poverty for all citizens of the earth regardless of whether they live in developed or developing countries.

According to the National Assembly, this is what Pakistan hopes to achieve by 2030 or at least make efforts for there to be significant positive changes. However, there is little in the way of policies and actual groundwork to achieve any of these goals. The resolution has been adopted but the commitment is missing, as it was for the MDGs. Our approach to dealing with problems still heavily relies on waiting until they become too big to ignore and then hastily fixing whatever is easily fixable. Yes, terrorism has slowed us down and cost us precious resources which could have been better employed elsewhere but poor governance and lack of resolve has been plaguing our development agenda for far longer.

The SDGs focus on sustainable and inclusive development. That is something we in Pakistan have failed at spectacularly and for a long time. The division of resources has historically been unequal and other provinces lag far behind Punjab. It remains to be seen whether the policies for achievement of this new set of goals will focus on a more equitable division of resources or follow the previous pattern. The adoption of aspirational resolutions is an important first step in bringing about long-term positive change. Also required is a commitment to inclusivity and that is where Pakistan consistently falls behind.

Thar and its many commissions

One would think that after the failure of the numerous commissions that were formed in the past to look into the causes of deaths of malnourished children in Thar, the Sindh government would have realised that it needed to go beyond the forming of commissions. The findings of such commissions have rarely resulted in concrete solutions and have done little to alleviate the misery of the people of Thar. The latest commission to investigate the causes of deaths in drought-hit parts of Thar, formed under Justice (retd) Ghulam Sarwar Korai, is expected to submit its report in court by March 17.

In December 2014, this newspaper published a report on the failure of the fifth commission formed by the Sindh chief minister to probe the mounting death toll in Thar. The commission formed under Justice Korai is the seventh such body. It seems that distracting the courts and NGOs — which have gone to court against alleged governmental negligence — by creating bureaucratic hurdles has become the norm for the authorities. It is clear that the mere formation of a commission to probe the cause of deaths and assign responsibility is not working for the benefit of the people. One of the earlier commissions formed under Justice (retd) Zahid Kurban Alavi had categorically held the Sindh health department and the elected representatives from Thar responsible for the deaths of children. Justice Alavi called the provincial disaster management authority a “white elephant” for failing to deliver. Before that, a commission headed by the then Hyderabad DIG had also held the provincial government responsible. The authorities’ response to these findings had been to disband these commissions and refuse to accept their recommendations. It remains to be seen if the Sindh government will accept the findings of the latest commission that has been formed, but if history is any reflection, its findings, too, will be filed away until another bout of disease takes down more people from Thar. What we need is a solid response from the Sindh government as well as the relevant departments that have been previously identified as being responsible for Thar’s dismal state.

Silence and activity

With nothing but silence from the London offices of the MQM leader, Altaf Hussain, it is not possible to gauge how developments in Pakistan are being received. Notwithstanding that, events are moving swiftly on several fronts. The soft coup mounted by Dr Farooq Sattar a week ago is consolidating, although it is too early to say that the party is united behind him and there are obvious differences, with Wasay Jalil, a coordination committee member, saying that any decision to split with the London end of the party is unacceptable. The moving of a resolution in parliament by Dr Sattar on September 2 condemning the August 22 speech that sparked the current turmoil has changed nothing in real terms.

There are two realities — one is that it will not be easy to airbrush Altaf Hussain out of the picture in a ‘Minus-One’ scenario, and the other is that the MQM is a legitimate political party with parliamentary presence and the government cannot willy-nilly set about proscribing its operations as some quarters are advocating. People vote for the MQM in their millions as is their right and for many of those voters, the man still at the top is Altaf Hussain. The government needs to show a little more restraint in its approach to the MQM. Bulldozing MQM buildings said to be encroachments is one thing, wholesale detentions of members and activists another. For the MQM, a revision of its constitution to exclude Altaf Hussain may be a step in the right direction but it is going to be difficult to sell to many of the rank and file membership. Either way there is a significant shift within the MQM that is still ‘in process’ rather than concluded. If the final position results in a more peaceful Karachi, then so be it and welcome, but the government needs to stand back and let events take their course.

Stranded Pakistanis

Reports of dwindling foreign exchange funds have permeated the Pakistani media over the past several months. Economies where the majority of Pakistani expatriates work have been hit by tumbling oil prices amongst other economic woes. However, the human costs of this story have gone under-reported. Foreign exchange is not being sent to Pakistan because those earning it are losing their livelihoods and are desperately struggling to make ends meet. Over 8,000 Pakistanis working for various construction companies in Saudi Arabia are not receiving salaries and are living in fear of incarceration due to expired work permits. The prime minister has now called for the Pakistan embassy in Riyadh to extend support to these workers in resolving these issues.

Many of these individuals are currently living in dire circumstances. Since their work permits have expired, they are afraid of getting arrested by Saudi authorities. They are forced to spend all their time either at work where they don’t get paid or in cramped company quarters surviving on paltry sums occasionally given to them by employers that barely cover basic necessities. Their passports are in the custody of their employers and the work permits remain expired since it is the employers’ task to pay the required fees and get them renewed. The legal and economic status of these workers is in jeopardy and cases put forth to labour courts have not yielded results thus far. For many, the option of forgoing their current employment and returning home without back pay does not exist. The earnings of these workers have provided a much-needed boost to our economy for the past several decades. Now that they need legal and economic support from their home country, they must not be left in the lurch. The situation being faced by Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia is untenable and the government must follow through with its statements by making efforts to improve their living situation immediately.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 3rd, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

A worrisome move

Considering that Pakistan has a long contiguous border with Afghanistan and is closely engaged diplomatically and in the fight against terrorism, it is strange indeed that the US has set up trilateral talks that include India but exclude Pakistan on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session later this month. Stranger still is the remark by US Secretary of State John Kerry who said his hope was that “Pakistan as a country is not isolated by this but encouraged by this”. Mr Kerry usually gives the impression that he is on the same planet as the rest of humanity, but the trick seems to have eluded him on this occasion. It is difficult to see what dots he is seeking to join given that India has no engagement with Afghanistan beyond huge investment in infrastructure projects and a desire to be in any energy loop that may include Afghanistan. India is energy-hungry and there are a number of projects that tap into the vast reserves of natural gas and oil in Central Asia that it would wish to have a finger in.

There is no clarity at all as to how the trilateral talks would in any way contribute to ‘stability’ in Afghanistan. They do not include any of the various iterations of the Taliban so far as is known though they will certainly be aware of them, and India has no known linkages with any of the Taliban groups at a formal level though it must be assumed they have back-channel contacts. Understandably, Pakistan has questioned the motives behind these talks with the Foreign Office saying that it is not sure what they hope to achieve, what the agenda is or the status of the talks. It is difficult to believe that the Foreign Office is going to feel anything other than marginalised and out of the loop, and equally difficult to see what India can bring to the table in terms of creating regional harmony or lessening the ongoing conflicts inside Afghanistan. Indeed, some may see this as a calculated snub. Whatever it may be, this looks like a misstep by Mr Kerry.

Circular debt

The rise of Pakistan’s circular debt always seems to be in the news. In the latest development, senators have sought reasons for the Rs300 billion stock of circular debt that has piled up despite the massive fall in international crude oil prices and the fact that the government cleared around Rs480 billion as soon as it came to power. The cost of power generation is as low as it can be and has given the government the chance to reduce subsidies and control the budget deficit. It has also meant that power producers can now actually reap profits. The fall in crude oil prices has been massive, meaning that Pakistan can save on multiple fronts including on the import bill and subsidies given to the energy sector, while keeping tax revenue higher on petroleum products by denying full benefit to the consumer.

Given these developments, it is a shame that circular debt has been on the rise. It basically means that no matter what the cost of production or the amount of subsidies, there are some consumers who will either not pay what they owe or that inefficient power companies will find a way to increase their receivables. A closer analysis reveals that provincial governments are as much to blame as those consumers who are involved in power theft. The entire system is complex and corrupt. Hence, there was never any doubt that the power sector needed structural reforms. It needed to be made efficient. One hope was the IMF bailout programme through which Pakistan promised reforms and privatisation of power distribution companies. Towards the end of the three-year bailout, however, it was revealed that the plan had been shelved, no doubt due to the failure to restructure and reform DISCOs. There are several questions that one can ask here, but there will be very few satisfactory replies. In haste, the PML-N cleared Rs480 billion in 2013, and there are question marks there as well. But, as is the case in government affairs, there are very few answers that can satisfy the public.

The trouble with staring men

An excise commissioner from the Indian state of Kerala attracted much derision when he recently stated that a man staring longer than 14 seconds at a woman could get jailed. While no such law exists in India — in fact, such a law would be difficult to implement anywhere in the world — the statement does highlight a widespread phenomenon that millions of women in India and Pakistan have to deal with on a daily basis.

One of the major cultural tragedies of South Asia is that women have been objectified for ages. This is not to say that objectification of women does not exist in other cultures, but given the patriarchal nature of our societies and even laws, objectification of women here is more accentuated. Here, women have been viewed as statues to be bejeweled and flaunted at weddings, as robots to prepare timely meals in the kitchen, as people pleasers at the homes of their in-laws, and as objects to be stared down and examined with a judging eye. This ‘tradition’ of men staring at women continues to be passed down from one generation to the next. Whether the male is from Pakistan, where religious morals include lowering one’s gaze in modesty, or from India, which also derives a culture from similar teachings in modesty, makes no difference. Staring at women shows the male-dominated nature of our societies and the lowly status accorded to women, something that is further highlighted by the ease with which crimes can be committed against them. Whether it is the large number of cases of female rape in India or Pakistan’s epidemic of ‘honour’ crimes, the status of women in our countries is there for all to see. The Indian official’s statement should not be dismissed with mere amusement. While enacting laws against staring may not be possible, what is needed is a change in mindsets and the way moral values are imparted in South Asia. That may be the only way to curb the staring culture.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 4th, 2016

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Monday, September 5th, 2016.

India — a troubled country

Preoccupied with Indian spies, border clashes and the ongoing dispute over Kashmir, the Pakistan media — and by extension the wider populace — are largely unaware of whatever else is going on within India, and it is not a happy country. It will be recalled that the government of Narendra Modi was voted in on the back of promises to reform a slew of issues and to replicate the double-digit growth that he oversaw in his home state of Gujarat — and it has not for the most part happened, at least for the lowest paid or advantaged. It is true that he has opened up the state sector for foreign investment including defence and aviation as well as some significant taxation reform, but millions of people are less than satisfied and were sufficiently disgruntled to stage the world’s largest-ever strike on September 2.

A nationwide strike by tens of millions of public-sector workers — always poorly paid — has cost the country around Rs180 billion. The finance and labour ministries attempted a last-minute heading off of the strike including a Rs104 rise in the minimum wage of unskilled workers but failed and most of the country came to a grinding halt.

This is no small event and although the strike was not universal, it covered enough of the country for India to be essentially paralysed. Whatever revolution Mr Modi is working for, its benefits have yet to trickle down to the majority of the population which, like that of Pakistan, is poor. The trade unions contend that Mr Modi’s policies are anti-worker and anti-people, and the picture of homogeneity that India likes to project to the world is deceptive. It does indeed shine in some parts — but by no means all and there are internal nationalist conflicts of a severity to rival those of Pakistan, religious and sectarian conflicts similarly. Public services are crumbling and many health workers have not been paid for months. Our neighbour is grappling with many of the same problems as we are — and with no more success in many ways, which takes the shine off a much-promoted package.

Empowering the PAC

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), ostensibly the most powerful parliamentary body supposedly empowered to hold accountable, on the basis of findings by the Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP), those who embezzle public funds or indulge in mega corruption, has consistently failed to perform its task with any degree of success because of the in-built weaknesses within its legislative being and its organisational weaknesses. This was recently acknowledged by PAC members themselves while hearing a case brought before it by the AGP. Lack of trained manpower and the necessary secretarial paraphernalia make it impossible for the PAC to complete its job in a timely manner resulting in huge backlogs with the Committee invariably finding itself taking up in 2016 the irregularities committed, say in 2012. Since the AGP reports are first submitted at the end of each year to the president who then sends them to parliament, which then submits these to the PAC, this time-consuming procedure also adds to the delays. Delayed action, by almost four to five years, on the part of PAC often renders its rulings an exercise in futility.

More importantly, due to the in-built weaknesses in its legislative being, most of PAC’s rulings get circumvented in court as those held accountable escape the law by obtaining stay orders. To uphold parliamentary supremacy, it is, therefore, imperative that the PAC’s powers are expanded and its strength enlarged both legislative-wise and structurally to make it an effective accountability body. It is also necessary that the audit reports showing glaring irregularities are sent to the president without waiting until the year’s end. Also, there should be a distinction between the PAC’s domain and that of civil courts. Legislation is needed in this area to define parliamentary jurisdiction. In fact, not only the PAC but all other parliamentary committees need to be adequately empowered to enable them to keep effective executive oversight on governance, especially where public funds are involved.

Exodus of minorities

In recent years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among those countries whose nationals have been seeking asylum abroad and this year is no different. According to data released by Germany, the UK and the US, over 10,000 Pakistanis have sought asylum in these three countries during the last year. The majority of them headed towards Germany probably due to its asylum policy being rather generous in comparison to other Western countries. The data from the US has divided asylum seekers by religion and not surprisingly, the demographics reveal that these individuals, by and large, belong to minority communities in Pakistan that are often persecuted on religious grounds. The persecution has grown worse in recent years with attacks on places of worship, prevalence of hate speech and an overall atmosphere of intolerance. Apart from the loss of life, minorities in Pakistan have to suffer daily indignities and are often discriminated against in educational institutions, workplaces and social gatherings.

The only other countries whose nationals are claiming more asylums than Pakistanis have been ravaged by war. This is a desperately sad situation and one which needs to be addressed. Traditionally, responses to the high number of asylum seekers are dismissive and they are often labelled as opportunists who exploit their supposedly disadvantaged status for economic benefit. If the level of hardship and sacrifice required for a refugee to carve out a meagre living in their adopted country was understood, those lobbing such criticisms would think twice. Leaving one’s country to become a refugee with a precarious legal and economic status in a foreign land is a daunting prospect, which fazes all except those who have very little to lose from selecting this risky option. If the process was any easier, the number of asylum seekers from Pakistan would probably increase even more. Both our government and people must realise that this continued exodus is damaging our society as we are losing talented individuals and reducing our religious diversity.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 5th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Tuesday, September 6th, 2016

Street protest and realpolitik

Looking across a basket of foreign media sources including The Washington Post, Le Monde and The Guardian, recent months have seen what amounts to cautious optimism regarding Pakistan, the state and viability of the current government, and what the future may hold. There are caveats, and huge ones at that — the reliance on large infrastructure projects to woo the expanding middle class, the failure to reform the tax system and the inability to get on top of the endless power cuts to name but three — but a crude evaluation would give the government some credit for bringing a modicum of stability. As for durability, much is made both within and without of the street protests organised by the opposition parties, and their effectiveness or otherwise. The last week has seen a return to the streets with more of the same promised after Eidul Azha, with the push being to ultimately unseat the government and trigger an early election.



Analysts observe that street protests in the country in recent years have in reality achieved little. There is a view that the most recent chain of demonstrations in response to the Panama Papers has also largely run out of steam, and failed to stir the imagination of most of the population apart from the protest-going minority. The realpolitik-attuned eye and ear will detect no smoking gun, no leverage and no chance of bringing down a government with a secure parliamentary majority.

That said, one has to admit that the street protests perform a vital function. They are irritants, not quite the grain of sand that produces the pearl, but sufficiently abrasive to let the government know that it ignores the common man at its peril, that there are many millions who do not agree with or support its policies no matter what, and that there are real grievances that need to be addressed, urgent questions that need answers, from the Panama Papers imbroglio to the investigation into the Model Town killings of 2014. Extra-parliamentary activity is in the national political DNA, and with none of the parties making the most of what parliament has to offer, the street is the best alternative — but peacefully, please.

A vital agreement

As one of the global frontline states affected by climate change, Pakistan has a strong vested interest in any developments that may serve to improve our prospects — and China and the US have now delivered just that. The two countries have formally ratified the Paris Climate Change Agreement as an impressive overture to the ongoing G20 summit in Hangzhou, China. There was immediate and unusually widespread appreciation of what is seen as a significant advance in the struggle to hold back global warming.

Just occasionally, there are moments when history is seen to be made, and this is one of them. China and the US had been working for months behind the scenes to craft a document that they were both comfortable signing up to. The agreement brings together both will and vision, and is committed to spanning successive governments for at least a generation hence, a recognition of the need to act extra-politically and transnationally for the good of all nations. This opens the way for the Paris Agreement to be ratified this year, earlier than expected, and represents a move from making commitments — relatively easily done — to taking action which is relatively difficult to do. Richer countries are going to support poorer countries in limiting their carbon emissions beyond 2020. Final ratification requires the agreement of 55 countries — which coincidentally form 55 per cent of global emissions. What looked like a very tall order today looks eminently possible. The UN is holding a climate summit in November, and if other big emitters such as Brazil can be brought on board, then the global community will have finally found a banner under which all are prepared to march. Climate change presents an existential threat planet-wide, with countries such as ours extremely vulnerable. Pakistan has a tiny carbon footprint but lives with disproportionately high risk. That risk may just have been mitigated a little.

Pakistan’s ODI woes

The highs of the Test series were quickly forgotten as Pakistan’s One-Day International (ODI) team received a thrashing at the hands of England in the five-match series, losing by a 4-1 margin. England maintained a stranglehold against their largely timid opponents, who despite fighting hard in patches, were no match for the quality that Eoin Morgan’s unit possessed in a format where they have taken their performance to a new level since their harrowing World Cup show last year.

Pakistan continue to languish at number nine in the ODI rankings and this latest battering indicates that the national team’s direct qualification for the 2019 World Cup very much hangs in the balance. That Pakistan are out of touch with the requirements of the modern ODI game was there for all to see during the third match where the hosts plundered a world record 444 in their 50 overs. The much-vaunted bowling attack was brutally exposed while the batting line-up also looked inadequate in matching the demands of modern-day cricket where batsmen tend to go after the bowling from the the very first ball. Azhar Ali’s captaincy remained uninspiring and the PCB needs to decide whether it is worth the risk to stick with a largely subdued leader at the helm of a struggling team. A change in leadership looks inevitable with the sprightly Sarfaraz Ahmed tipped to replace Azhar. The selection for the series was also questionable with some gaping holes left in the squad. Pakistan lack firepower both at the top and end of the innings due to a serious dearth of big hitters. The one positive from the series was the emergence of all-rounder Imad Wasim as a consistent performer with both bat and ball. He has the credentials to play a prominent role in the resurrection of the team’s fortunes. For now, the PCB and the team think tank need to take this setback as an opportunity to identify our many weaknesses and take the steps needed to rectify these.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 6th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Wednesday, September 7th, 2016

Afghanistan in downward spiral

The slide towards an uncertain future in Afghanistan has been noted in these columns several times in recent months, but the last week is of particular import given the violence and gravity of events within it. Militarily and in terms of the security of the populace in Kabul as well as other major cities — is at an all-time low. The Taliban or their proxy affiliates are penetrating security rings within the cities on an almost daily basis representing a substantial failure of the intelligence agencies. The complex attack on September 5 was made up of several elements. Two suicide bombers attacked the defence ministry, synchronising their detonation in order to maximise casualties by hitting those that were the ‘first responders’ to the initial blast. At least 24 died and over 90 were injured.



It is perhaps significant how briefly this event occupied the world and local headlines in a media saturated with blood and explosions. Later, on the same day, there was a truck bomb in the city and on September 6, the offices of a prominent NGO, Care, were attacked by multiple gunmen. They were all killed. It was the fifth attack in the city in 24 hours. Two weeks ago, the American University in Kabul was attacked killing 13. Two faculty members of the university remain ‘missing’ after being kidnapped. At least 80 died on July 23 in an attack claimed by the Islamic State with perhaps 150 injured, numbers are still unclear.

Outside the capital, the insurgent campaign carries on and is nowhere being rolled back by the Afghan National Army. The Taliban are threatening Lashkar Gah, the capital of the southern province of Helmand as well as Kunduz, which they held briefly last year. The Taliban continue to demonstrate an ability to mount both large and small scale operations more or less at will, flying in the face of the government’s statements that despite appearances to the contrary the battle against them is being won. It is not.

Beyond the battlefields, the international community struggles to put together credible attempts to reverse the tide. Within the month, there is to be a conference in Brussels at which international donors are expected to reaffirm their pledges of financial support for Afghanistan, though it is patently obvious that throwing money at this crumbling country is going to do little or nothing to stop the rot. Three months ago, Nato similarly pledged support at a meeting in Warsaw — little came of that either.

Regional diplomatic efforts are similarly plagued by serial failure. The never-useful Quadrilateral Group made up of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US has fallen into irrelevance as neither Kabul nor the US seem interested in breathing life into it. Its death-knell was sounded by John Kerry, the US secretary of state, who has announced that the US, India and Afghanistan are to hold trilateral talks in order to facilitate the peace process, excluding Pakistan and, as ever, excluding the Taliban in any of their several iterations. A rare foot-in-mouth moment for Mr Kerry.

Pakistan comes in for stick from Kabul for not doing enough to attack Taliban elements within its own borders, and Islamabad ripostes by asking just what Afghanistan is doing to fight the Taliban decanted over the border by Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Fingers are pointing in all directions as to exactly whose fault this catastrophic mess is. In purely military terms, the Taliban groups have the upper hand now in Afghanistan, and short of a massive deployment of foreign troops — which is never going to happen again — there will be incremental gains by them that will eventually accrete to a point where they are a defacto government in terms of the territory they hold and crucially administer. If donors and contiguous countries want to do something useful rather than chasing their expensive tails, they should be working on Plan B — just how to deal with a country where much of the territory may soon be administered by the Taliban?

A shameful travesty

Anybody who thought that the speaker of the National Assembly was occupying a position above petty politics and partisanship was disabused of that on September 5. The speaker dismissed all references seeking the disqualification of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at the same time as sending similar references against two of the leaders of the PTI, namely Imran Khan and Jahangir Tareen, to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) for adjudication within 90 days. It must be noted that Speaker Ayaz Sadiq is a member of the PML-N.

To label this as a shameful travesty of what the role of the speaker ought to be understates the case by several orders of magnitude. If Pakistan is to have a parliament modelled on the Mother of Parliaments in the UK, then it needs to adopt the traditions and protocols of that august (though to be scrupulously fair, not always honest or honourable) body where the impartiality of the speaker — essentially the referee — is of paramount importance. The speaker for the term of his or her office has to stand aside from their party of origin and see that fair play is the order of the day — every day — and that partiality has no place in their decisions or rulings. Whilst Mr Sadiq is correct in saying that his post is neither a court nor an investigation agency, at the same time, he is happy to make subjective value-judgments about which it is simply not possible to discern anything like balance or indeed moderation. He has informed the ECP of the references against the the prime minister but expects nothing further beyond that, whilst he also expects the ECP to go about its business and investigate the PTI and its officers with due diligence, having judged that the case against them is of greater merit than that against the PML-N and its officers. All of the above notwithstanding, no political party and most of the individuals concerned in this matter are exactly stainless in terms of matters parliamentary, but this blatantly partisan display by the speaker tops off a distinctly unpalatable parliamentary layer-cake. We expect no early improvement.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 7th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Thursday, September 8th, 2016

CPEC security

Questions have been raised about the difference between the Chinese and the Pakistan work ethic in connection with progress on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), namely that the Chinese approach tends to be to get things done as soon as possible whereas the Pakistan approach is to get things done — eventually. There are already many thousands of Chinese in-country working on various elements of the CPEC and the federal government long ago decided — rightly — on the formation of a special security division that must be deployed for the protection of the Chinese workers who have been attacked in the past and remain vulnerable in some parts of the country today.

It is now learnt that the provinces have yet to give authorisation for the deployment of the special security force, mainly because of challenges to the CPEC from assorted “regional powers” — read vested interests — that see the development of the CPEC as a threat to their own assets and/or interests. This wrinkle in the implementation process emerged during a meeting called to review progress. The National Highway Authority raised the matter relative to the deployment of the Special Force on the Thakot-Havelian stretch of the CPEC and was informed that “administrative issues” were the problem and specifically the jurisdiction of the new force and its rules of engagement.

This and other issues should have long ago been ironed out, not presenting today as impediments. The provinces — Punjab apart — have not responded to letters written to them in this regard and the interior secretary has now given them a week to respond to the Ministry of the Interior. We anticipate that this is not going to be the only instance of provincial hampering of the CPEC as there was much that should have been discussed and finalised before the project as a whole got the green light. There are serious provincial reservations, particularly relating to which province is going to be the greatest beneficiary, with Punjab believed to be the biggest winner. The Chinese have already expressed their frustration at slow progress and it is not unreasonable to expect more of the same.

Missed education targets

For the umpteenth time, we are forced to rue the fact that the state of education in Pakistan is appallingly dismal. Periodic survey reports of local and international agencies keep casting lurid light on the decrepit condition of our schools, pathetic teaching standards, low enrolment, thin attendance, high dropout rate, ghost teachers and what not. One such report, titled UN Global Education Monitoring Report 2016 is just out and has delivered another damning indictment of the abysmal shape of our schooling system. The report notes that Pakistan is over 50 years behind in achieving its primary and over 60 years behind in achieving its secondary education targets. Last year, world leaders committed to the target of ensuring that all girls and boys are able to complete free quality primary and secondary education by 2030, but chronic under-funding is holding back progress. While this general assessment is true in case of other nations, lack of funding is not the sole affliction plaguing Pakistan’s education sector.

The more alarming issue, as a Care Foundation report aptly points out, is the inefficient use of allocated funds with high proportions remaining unspent and those that are spent contributing little to good quality education. Small wonder then that 5.1 million Pakistani children of primary school age are out of school. This is the second highest in the world and is over twice as many as in India. These cold, hard statistics bespeak of the skewed priorities of successive governments, which shrank from their duty to place education, and not politics of patronage, high on their agenda. A course correction is still possible, though. Punjab, Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa are ruled by three different parties that could compete, as they do in politics, to outdo each other on how well they bolster and upgrade their education systems and put their young population in schools. A continued poor showing when it comes to education will only ensure that our progress as a nation and as a knowledge economy will continue to flounder.

Unforgivable delays

It is increasingly clear that for the Pakistani parliament, women rights issues rank low down on its list of priorities. No number of reports on rape and murder of women have been able to budge those in the power corridors to pass pending legislation on rape and ‘honour’ crimes. It was in July that a special parliamentary panel unanimously passed the anti-honour killing and anti-rape bills, which were scheduled to be presented in a joint sitting of parliament in the first week of August. But the political logjam over the Panama Papers has, again, put these crucial bills on the back-burner. There always appears to be some hurdle or the other that comes in the way of pro-women legislation; sometimes it is opposition from religious parties, at other times it is objections of the Council of Islamic Ideology, and then there are times when there is no better reason than the disinterest of the ruling party, as appears to be the case now.

The failure to pass these laws is akin to criminal negligence on part of the government. Following the ‘honour’ killing of Qandeel Baloch, Maryam Nawaz had stated that the government would be passing both bills soon, but even a case as shocking as Qandeel Baloch’s murder, has not pushed the government forward on the matter. This complete disinterest is across the board. It’s been eight months now since the National Commission on the Status of Women, a statutory body responsible for the empowerment of women, has been dysfunctional because the authorities have failed to appoint its chairperson. The commission was established to examine laws and regulations on women’s development and rights, but has not been working since its last chairperson completed her tenure. All these are clear signals of how little the government cares for what it obviously considers the less important half of the population. In absence of these laws and a near-suspended women’s rights body, women’s lives continue to have little value and their murders easily ‘forgiven’. The government must remember that every time it delays the passing of these laws, it only smears blood on its hands.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 8th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Friday, September 9th, 2016

Where there is a will…

There are millions of Panama Papers. Literally millions, 12.7 million to be precise. The 600-odd that name people of Pakistan origin are a mere drop in this ocean of information. For those with an interest in taxation, money laundering and the ‘grey’ financial sector, it is a trove waiting to be mined by governments if they are so minded — and Denmark is setting an example by spending money to find money. Like Pakistan, there are only a small number of people of Danish origin named in the Panama Papers, 500-600, but the Danish tax minister has decided that he will pay the equivalent of one million British pounds for information on Danes listed in order to pursue an investigation, and if possible pull money back into the treasury to which it was entitled.

What the Danes are telling the world is that there are ways around the complicated hedges that have been erected by those wishing to put their money beyond the reach of inquisitive tax authorities. The government of Pakistan is unlikely to be doing any such thing because those that would be investigated will have links into governance as well, and will be delighted that the prime minister in protecting himself from inquiry has by extension protected every other Pakistani from investigation as well. This in turn will not have gone unnoticed in the discreetly murky world of tax avoidance and evasion — the difference between the two being no mere matter of semantics but that of legality — just — or illegality. The fact is that the prime minister is not named in the Panama Papers and he and his team have mounted an effective stonewalling defence that has deflected all the opposition parties, neutralised them in this respect politically, and the prime minister can sit back and watch them flail about expending energy and large sums of money fighting a battle they have not a snowballs chance in hell of winning. Had there been genuine political will to get to the bottom of the matter, the government would have ensured the passage of effective legislation to look into the Panama affair. That, sadly, is not going to happen. As for the Danish tax minister, hunting in the financial undergrowth, well we wish him luck, there are big beasts swimming in the Offshore Sea.

Dwindling exports

Pakistan’s exports have been declining for a while and the balance of trade with most countries is heavily tilted in favour of the other. Some blame the global economic slowdown for the sharp fall in export proceeds, while some point at a strong Pakistani rupee. However, many rightly believe that the problems are home-grown with over-emphasis on one sector, lack of value-addition and issues of substandard quality being key hindrances. Now there are reports that the commerce ministry is preparing a 21-point plan to increase exports and improve its own performance. The question here arises as to why the ministry has suddenly woken up to the need of making such plans. Our exports have been falling for some time and there has been little talk about how to increase foreign exchange reserves through this source.

Much time and energy have been wasted on blaming the global economic slowdown for falling exports, but the country’s negligent attitude is no less to blame. In a recent development, Jordan declined to buy wheat from Pakistan since it was of “sub-standard” quality. A Pakistani official confirmed that the wheat had been infected with “dust and other ingredients”. This is the nub of the issue. After months of negotiations, as it looked to export a surplus commodity, Pakistan failed at the final hurdle. This is one example of negligence taking away from whatever efforts were made by farmers, officials and trade ambassadors. The finance minister insists that depressed commodity prices have led to a decline in export volume. What he ignores are stuck refunds of the textile sector that have achieved nothing besides inflating tax revenue figures. What he also does not see is that Pakistani goods lack global competitiveness. Poor negotiation skills and a failure to adopt advanced technologies have also contributed towards falling exports, with the commerce ministry having done little towards making improvements in this area.

Transgenders’ rights

The transgender community in Pakistan has struggled and fought for inclusion in society for decades, and their fight for equal rights continues till date. Members of the transgender community recently filed a petition in the Peshawar High Court, urging the federal government for the creation of a third column on the national census to recognise sexes that do not fall in the category of ‘male’ or ‘female’, and for easing the process of issuance of CNICs. Considering the marginalisation that the community faces, we support its cause espoused in the petition.

Members have been advocating for the change to relevant census forms to take place for some time and the sluggish action by the Bureau of Statistics needs to be looked into. In addition, the issuance of CNICs to members of the trangender community remains a problem. In 2009, the Supreme Court had ordered the inclusion of a separate column for community members in CNICs. While NADRA announced the inclusion of this column some years ago, the hassles that community members faced in obtaining CNICs remain. They are required to submit their birth certificates to obtain CNICs, and it is completely ignored that due to the discrimination they face at the hands of their own families, they often do not have birth certificates and other required documentation needed for CNIC issuance. Instead of working to come up with a solution to the unique problems they face, NADRA appears to have done little in this regard. Inclusion of separate columns on census forms and issuance of CNICs are only initial steps towards incorporating the community into mainstream society. Members of the transgender community are Pakistani citizens deserving of the same rights that a male or female citizen is entitled to. It is dehumanising for a community to have to lobby for basic rights such as the amendment to a form for their inclusion. The government must stop humiliating the community and work in unison to change all relevant government forms to include a third gender category.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 9th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Saturday, September 10th, 2016

Risky slippage in Indo-Pak relations

There is no let-up in the ongoing dispute between Pakistan and India or any sign that either side is inclined to take a more emollient line. It is very much a he-said-he-said shouting match which has taken an uptick since September 8 with the Foreign Office (FO) accusing New Delhi of sponsoring and financing terrorism in South Asia — which is the exact obverse of what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said on more than one occasion in the last week — and that in forums such as the Association of South East Asian Nations and the G20 summit meeting. He was condemnatory of Pakistan as a regional proliferator of terrorism, an extremely serious allegation that our FO was never going to allow to slip by.

As has been observed in these columns previously, the normative state of relations between India and Pakistan is one of ‘managed instability’ that is persistent, sustainable and rarely gets beyond symbolic exchanges of fire along a ‘hot’ section of the Line of Control. Both sides are aware of where the unstated ‘red lines’ are and generally do not cross them. The model plays to the nationalist sentiment on both sides of the border, is sterile and virtually guaranteed to scupper any peace initiative launched by either side. Where this sense of stasis starts to come unglued and edge towards the dangerous rather than the theatrically inconvenient, is when one side or the other becomes the diplomatic equivalent of a loose cannon, and Mr Modi appears to be edging towards that. Mr Sharif, by contrast, since the last election has remained steadily pacific.

India appears to have miscalculated the consequences of the killing of the Kashmiri separatist Burhan Wani on July 8 from which a multitude of troubles have flowed. Pakistan, for its part, has no choice but to respond like-with-like and the tension ratchets upwards. Relations now are at their lowest ebb for many years, and whatever back-channels are in play are without the heft to influence the front-of-house game. There has been no out-of-the-box thinking by either side for decades, but this latest real and risky slippage needs to be arrested and soon.

Karachi by-poll

The electoral backwash from recent events inside the MQM are now evident in the results of the election for the provincial assembly seat of PS-127, which has been taken by the PPP — 12 years after the last time it held the seat. It is perhaps too early to say definitively that the disconnect between the London arm of the MQM and the Karachi franchise is going to have more than a passing effect, but the PPP victory is an indication that the MQM can no longer expect to have it all its own way electorally. There were at least 21 candidates for the seat, which was vacated by Ashfaq Ahmed Mangi who joined the Pak Sarzameen Party of Mustafa Kamal in April — but the PPP and the MQM were the only real contenders with a chance of winning.

The margin of victory was substantial — 21,200 for the PPP to 15,400 for the MQM, and the PPP may feel that this result is the righting of an injustice as their last post-holder was gunned down in March 2004. The MQM won the seat after his assassination and they will be smarting today at not only the defeat per se but the scale of it. The poll was marred by some violence and the turnout reportedly low. ‘One swallow does not a summer make’ goes the old saying and it is going to be for future by-elections and a general election to determine whether the electoral geography of Karachi really has changed. The unconscionable but clearly tactical delay in the census and subsequent boundary delineation are other factors in play; overall contributing to something of a churn. The PPP chose its candidate well, strong and experienced, very much a known quantity. Fielding similar candidates elsewhere in the city may pay similar dividends. For the PTI, the result was miserable, only garnering ‘village votes’ and considerably down on its 2013 performance. For the MQM, the result may herald a decline in fortunes overall, a position which it is both unused to and uncomfortable with. The currents are shifting, and may no longer flow to the exclusive advantage of the MQM.

Bad water

The availability of a clean source of drinking water is fundamental to the overall health of any human population. It is taken for granted in the developed world where potable water comes out of taps everywhere — not so in Pakistan where drinking water is something of a lottery as revealed in a damning report to the Senate this week. The Minister for Science and Technology informed the senators that 80 per cent of the population consumes contaminated water. The Council for Research in Water Resources has conducted a nationwide survey across 2,807 villages in 24 districts and the results are startling. The range of contaminants was wide — bacteria, toxic metals but principally arsenic, which is a vector for a range of cancers, dissolved solids, nitrates and fluorides. At least some of these derive from fertilisers and other agricultural products.

Microbiological testing kits have been developed and 24 water-testing laboratories set up across the country as well as the development of arsenic detection kits and the production of chlorination and disinfection tablets. All this is laudable, but with the underlying problem being bacterial infection, the pointer is to a chronic lack of domestic sanitation in rural areas where overwhelming number of households are without adequate toilets that leads to outdoor defecation. There are parts of the country where bacterial contamination is as high as 69 per cent. Small wonder that the overall health of the population is so poor — a majority of people are drinking water that whilst essential to life, is contributing to their infirmity and in many cases their early demise. The scandal lies in the fact that the laboratories referenced above are at risk because of a lack of funding. Staff have not been paid for months and contractual commitments are unfulfilled, with highly qualified staff leaving in disillusionment. Universal provision of potable water is a development essential, poisoning the populace via careless neglect is not. Fix the water problem. Now.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 10th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Sunday, September 11th, 2016

The Rangers are called

For months, there have been calls from all sides for the deployment of the paramilitary Rangers in Punjab as they have in Sindh. Those calls have hitherto been stoutly resisted by the Punjab government with, it has to be said, the tacit support of the federal government. Punjab is the heartland of the ruling PML-N and the vault in which it stores its treasured vote bank, an unknown number of whom support overtly or covertly the very terrorist and banned groups that make up the toxic sludge in the south of the province. Now the Punjab government has acceded to the pressure and called for a Rangers operation against terrorist groups and banned organisations operating openly — but only in “specific areas”. The reason for this change of heart is said to be “terror alerts”.

This is a move that is long overdue and much to be welcomed, though it remains to be seen what the ‘specific areas’ might be and whether the protection offered to some outfits continues to be extended whilst others receive the attentions of the Rangers. If that proves to be the case then this latest move will be revealed as little more than cosmetic, cynical at best. The Rangers are to be deployed in support of the Counter-Terrorism Department, and the ‘specific areas’ are to be determined at a meeting of the Apex Committee, which it will be recalled was formed to implement the 20 points of the National Action Plan.

The intervention of the Rangers has led to a significant drop in crime and terrorist-related incidents in Sindh. There has been criticism of their methodology which is seen by some as heavy-handed — but you don’t fight what amounts to urban warfare with one hand tied behind your back as has been the case hitherto in Punjab. Pretty it may not be, but neither were the criminal cultures and terrorist networks the Rangers have taken down. The Rangers are to be given powers of arrest but it remains to be seen how closely or otherwise they will work with local police forces. Do your work, gentlemen.


Punjab Finance Minister Ayesha Ghous recently joined the other provinces in calling for the commissioning of the 9th National Finance Commission Award by December. While it is true that delaying it further could create a sense of deprivation among the smaller provinces, we find it rather difficult to agree totally with her logic of putting the cart before the horse i.e., her view that the NFC award can be announced before the census exercise is undertaken. In any case, even if an Award is announced by December this year, it would remain ineffective until the next budget, which is almost nine months away. Going by the mood of the Supreme Court with respect to holding of the census, it would be very difficult for the federal government to postpone it beyond March next year anyway. Holding the census is essential for formulating a realistic Award as population carries the maximum weightage in the provincial distribution formula.

The 7th NFC Award, which on its expiry in 2014-15 became the eighth one, was announced in time to be incorporated in the 2010-11 budgets. Still the mismatch between the increase in the needs of the provinces following the passage of 18th Amendment in June 2011 and the budgetary allocations received by the provinces under the 7th NFC Award remained irreconcilable throughout its five-year tenure as well as during its current tenure while the federation by not jettisoning a number of provincial responsibilities had to shoulder extra financial burdens. The government needs to call a meeting of the Council of Common Interests to discuss the redistribution of responsibilities among the federation, provinces and local governments as envisaged in the 18th Amendment. Otherwise, the federation would continue to draw an ever smaller share from the divisible pool with its responsibilities remaining the same as before the passage of 18th Amendment, with the added burden of debt servicing and funding the ongoing war against terror.

The evolving nature of IS

Terrorism is ever-evolving, sometimes quickly, and the Islamic State (IS) is evolving faster than most. In its present form, it has only been around since April 2013 and since that time has had a profound effect globally. Initially it was aggressively territorial and captured and subjugated parts of Syria and Iraq. Military advances against it in the last six months have shrunk the borderless caliphate but it remains a potent force militarily, and has sophisticated and far-sighted planning processes. The IS is shrinking territorially, but at the same time on fast-forwards as to where it is going both operationally and ideologically.

It is entirely possible that it will be defeated in purely military terms, and that not in the far distance either, but the ideology has attained narrative status in a number of places, Pakistan included, and the way the IS is going to fight future wars will be on the basis of the narrative being the activator, the catalyst for self-creating, funding and servicing operations that are in the micro rather than the macro, beneath the radar. A small number of operatives will proselytise in the West as well as more traditional areas of operation, but the IS of the future will be diffuse, highly flexible and adaptive and composed of dots that by design will not be joined up. The capacity to spread fear and terror will be undiminished even if the borderless caliphate shrinks to a rump or even ceases to exist as an entity. This presents nation-states with any number of problems, evident here in Pakistan by the long-term state of denial that the government maintained — and still maintains — as to an IS presence. The IS vision is long term and the temporary setback of the loss of, say Raqqa, does nothing to diminish the power of the narrative and may well serve to strengthen it. The next iteration is going to be the caliphate of the mind, and the IS is well on the way to achieving that. Just because you cannot see it, does not mean it is not there.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 11th, 2016

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)