PML-Q in trouble

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

There are indications the PML-Q may be reaching the end of its natural life. This has happened before when parties were created for a specific end. We must hope attempts to do so will not be made again and lessons learned from the past. A group opposing the role of the Gujrat Chaudhrys has sprung up within the party. This development is not unexpected. There had been murmurings of discontent within the party for years. In the past, former president Musharraf, in his role as 'godfather', had been able to clamp down on them and prop up Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. Now that he is no longer there, the veteran politician and his kinsmen are under fire. The threat indeed is multi-pronged. The PML-N has also invited members of the PML-Q to join it. They may opt to do so – rather like rats abandoning a drowning ship. The same process had been seen in reverse when ahead of the 2002 polls, PML-N members embraced the faction of the party led by the Chaudhrys, encouraged to do so by the fact it was supported by the powers of the time.

Things have of course changed dramatically since then. Mian Nawaz Sharif and his party have made a strident comeback, notably in Punjab. Chaudhry Shujaat and his cousin, Chaudhry Pervaiz Ellahi, the former chief minister of the province, now must struggle to save their posts as party chiefs. But they must also keep in view that beyond conspiracies within their own party, the democratic verdict of people also stands against them. In polls last year, the PML-Q had suffered big defeats, with some of its key leaders tumbling like nine-pins. This verdict too has weakened the party, which may find that without a powerful patron it is not easy to survive on the battlefield of Pakistan's politics.


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Road to justice

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

The roadmap for justice in the country has been spelled out by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry at the end of a two-day conference on the implementation of the National Judicial Policy. The efforts to improve the working of the judiciary made by the chief justice have already helped clear up a pending backlog of cases. But as the chief justice emphasized, there is more to be done. His focus on action at the district and sessions level to achieve this was also welcome. It is here that the issues of inefficiency, long delays and dishonesty are most marked. The conference noted that load-shedding, a lack of manpower and the fact that tribunals are located far apart all had an impact on judicial efficiency. The need for democracy was also stressed by Justice Chaudhry – who has of course personally been a victim of dictatorship.

It is obvious that a judiciary that works better and plays a more active role in national life can have a huge impact in Pakistan. For far too many decades we have suffered a judiciary that has been willing to take orders from the executive. The CJP has made it clear he will not stand for this any longer, with the code of conduct spelled out at the Islamabad conference asking judges to stay away from functions given by other organs of state. The implications are clear: the judiciary must cut off links with the political leadership, and work as a truly independent organ.

In the context of Pakistan, this is of course immensely important. There is huge scope in the country for judicial activism. The impact this can have on the lives of people has been evident already in Karachi, where the Supreme Court intervened in the matter of a playground for children in a deprived area of the city, taking note of a newspaper article that called on it to be saved. It is true that, very strictly speaking, this may not be the role of the highest court of our land. But so desperate are the needs of people, so hard do they struggle to find even a modicum of justice, that the action taken by the CJ can only be welcomed. We must hope then that he succeeds in his efforts to resurrect the judiciary as a fully functional, efficient organ of state which can make its contribution to the country and help set it upon a path that leads to progress and uplift.


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Slow going

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

The battle for Swat is taking longer than expected. A month ago we were told that it was all over bar the shouting, that there were just 'pockets of resistance' and it would 'soon' be safe for the IDPs to return to their homes. Some have, but the majority have not and they remain marooned in the camps and schools and private homes. There is still no date for their return apart from a vague suggestion that it will be 'this month.' As the battle for Swat grinds on, the battle for Waziristan is slowly gathering pace and that will produce its own fresh crop of IDPs. Resources are stretched dreadfully thin, the aid agencies are struggling and running out of food and money; and the monsoon fast approaches. In the midst of all this misery life goes on – indeed new life in the form of babies is a daily occurrence for the IDP communities.

There are about 35,000 pregnant women who will give birth within the next seven months among the 3.5 million displaced. The majority of them have previously lived their lives in the seclusion of purdah. Despite multiple pregnancies and births many of them have never received medical attention during pregnancy nor given birth anywhere other than in their own homes. Giving birth in a tent is not an option anybody would choose, and pregnant women in droves are now attending the mother-and-child centres set up in the camps; paradoxically benefiting from their misfortune. Treatment is free at point of need, more babies are being delivered safely, mothers are being correctly advised about vaccination, and the M+C centres are close to their patients. This (relatively) bright spot must be balanced against health workers reporting that women are chronically depressed, fearful, experiencing difficulty with lactation, have a high incidence of urinary infections and many are malnourished. As military operations continue to deny them a return the plight of this group can only worsen, as will the pressure on the medical services that already are barely able to cope. They will eventually return to lands ravaged by war. Even more sadly, the basic services they can avail now are unlikely to be available on their return home; and women remain the eternal losers in the battles fought by men.

Under currents

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

There are worrying indications in British society that a violent anti-Muslim sentiment has now developed to the point at which attacks on Muslim-owned properties and institutions are imminent. There have been arrests in the last few days of 32 men across the UK and the recovery of arms and ammunition that included rocket-launchers, hand grenades and explosives as well as a quantity of handguns and automatic rifles. Not since the days of the IRA has such a large cache of illegal weaponry been obtained with the intent of use by a domestic terrorist group. Many of those arrested appear to belong to the far-right British Nationalist Party (BNP) which has a decades-long history of racist and anti-Semitic activity. British parliamentarian Muhammad Sarwar praised the police and other law-enforcement agencies for their timely action. Much to their credit the police moved in protection of minority ethnic and religious groups (Muslims were not the only targets) and a tragedy has been averted.

Almost coincidentally, Commander Shaun Sawyer of Scotland Yard's counter-terrorism command told a meeting of British Muslims that he was concerned about the danger to their communities and that the police were responding to the growing threat. He said of the far-right… "I fear that they will have a spectacular... they will carry out an attack that will lead to a loss of life or injury to a community somewhere. They're not choosy about which community." The arrest of the 32 would-be terrorists seems to bear out his concerns. As the recession bites ever-deeper the polarization of British society continues apace, and as the faded dream of multiculturalism and plurality dissipates into a reality of unemployment for many poor whites, the far-right is again resurgent. Polarities in the UK to a degree reflect our own difficulties, with the difference that here extremism is more embedded and widespread and the moderates, whoever they are, lack both voice and organisation sufficient to make a counterweight. A successful attack on a Muslim target in the UK could have appalling consequences here, and we have only to think back to the violence that grew out of the Danish cartoons story to know the truth of that. Extremism has a global connectivity – what goes 'bang' in the UK may be an even bigger bang here


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Friends, not foes

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

The cordial note struck between US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev during their first summit meeting at the Kremlin has important implications for Pakistan. The meeting and the joint declaration, which agrees on cuts in weapons, establish a new era in the world during which the two former foes can act as friends. But there is more. Russia has allowed the US 4,500 flights annually over its territory at no charge to carry troops and weapons to Afghanistan. This will facilitate the US war in that country. In the last few weeks the US has launched a major anti-militant operation in Afghanistan: the largest in years.

In past decades, decisions taken in Washington and Moscow have altered the fate of our country. The 1979 the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan altered much and played a key role in the creation of a dangerous place. The latest decisions mean the US involvement and its offensive in the region seem set to continue. This somewhat complicates the picture as far as the war against terrorism goes for Pakistan. We all know that militancy and the sometimes subtle support for it we find in quite unexpected places is spurred on by the widespread hatred for the US and its policies. There are many who will argue militancy will end only if the US pulls out of the region. But the talks in Moscow indicate the pace of the war may accelerate. This then is the reality Pakistan must live with. It must also realize some degree of cooperation with Kabul is essential. Fears have been expressed in certain quarters that the intensified anti-militant effort in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan will drive militants eastwards across the border. This just goes to show how closely the war in both countries is linked. The leaders need then to discuss how to tackle it jointly, and also how they can in the longer term persuade Washington to consider making an exit. It is clearly not ready to do so now – but an eventual end to militancy may in the future depend on its readiness to do so and recognize its involvement in Afghanistan since 2001 has done nothing to solve the complex problems of that country or the region as a whole.


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People and power

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Acting on the basis of media reports and on behalf of the people of Pakistan a three-member bench of the Supreme Court headed by the chief justice has restrained the government from hiking up the power tariff pending a decision in the case. The government had agreed with the IMF that the tariff on power would go up between 17 and 20 per cent in 2009 and 2010. This would be done by removing subsidies on power. The apex court, pointing out that power generation is a commercial activity, has called on the power companies whose top officials appeared before the bench and the government not to impose still greater burdens on people who were already suffering a great deal. It also raised the issue of load-shedding with the power bosses and suggested the private sector be brought in to create competition that would lower prices. We have of course seen this happen in the telecom sector.

There must be a question over whether it falls among the duties of the apex court to intervene in the economic policies of a government. The situation is all the more complex given that a deal with the IMF has been inked. But the fact also is that someone needs to give a voice to the voiceless. The people have no spokesmen. Leaders have repeatedly failed to act on their behalf. We do not know if there has been any follow up to the prime minister's announcement regarding no cut in power subsidies. In such circumstances, the Supreme Court's pro-people role can only be welcomed. The hapless people of Pakistan today need allies. The apex court has demonstrated it is willing to lend them a hand – and there are few who would oppose this in the difficult times we live in.

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Power punch

Thursday, July 09, 2009

The World Bank is often viewed as something of a pain in the proverbial neck, even by its supporters; and a tool of the great powers that sit either within its staff or in a shadowy background. It may well be guilty as charged on both counts but it also is able to hit the nail squarely on the head on occasion – and rarely more so than in the recent report on the power crisis that blights the lives of all of us. The draft report was actually issued in March, before the heat of summer was upon us, before the huge power cuts in Karachi and before burned wires at one of our major dams further reduced our power-generating capacity. It is a ruthless expose that lays bare the corruption, malfeasance, bad management and inefficiency that is today crippling our economy. Once again we join the bottom of another list. We have become the worst performer in the world after Egypt when it comes to the wait for a new connection – be it business or domestic. When we do finally get power to our houses or businesses we pay 60 per cent more for it than the Indians do and 40 per cent more than the Bangladeshis. Bribery is the only way that a majority of firms get their connection with 84 per cent of companies saying they had to make what is euphemistically referred to as an 'informal payment' to get connected. In the big cities and larger towns up to 50 per cent of all electricity is stolen via illegal connections. Only around 65 per cent of the population is connected to the national grid anyway and those that are connected suffer inefficient billing and unannounced loadshedding. Small wonder that our economy is in tatters.

The proposal by NEPRA (National Electric Power Regulatory Authority) to raise power prices yet again has been stalled by the Supreme Court, which has come to the rescue by seeking a review of the decision which may have been taken without following NEPRA's own internal procedures. The report goes on to detail deficits in generation, distribution, political will to solve the problem, pricing tariffs, inadequate regulation of the power sector generally, delays in connection and corruption – to name but a few. The power crisis connects to and fuels many of the other problems that beset us today. Civil unrest is beginning to spread. Manufacturing is crippled. Small and medium-sized businesses are failing because they either cannot produce the goods or service the debt that they need to take to continue production – or a combination of both. The dams which should have been built a decade ago weren't and the single large dam about to commence construction is many years from completion. The private power producers are caught in the vice of circular debt and the promise that loadshedding will have 'ended by December 2009' is sounding increasingly hollow and desperate. The World Bank report concludes by recommending that the power sector needs to achieve financial sustainability to enable better maintenance and future expansion; and therein lies the rub. We all know what is needed, and equally know that the powers that be are unlikely to be able to deliver. A consequence of that will be that we will go to the top of another list - and become the worlds' leading generator of darkness.


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Carbon tax suspension

Thursday, July 09, 2009

The ruling by the Supreme Court that the newly imposed carbon surcharge should be temporarily suspended was received with jubilation by the hard-pressed public but put the country's economic managers in a quandary. The Supreme Court will resume deliberation on its decision on July 9 when it will reconvene and announce a final decision. The changes in pricing are not insignificant. According to an Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) notification which was issued late on Tuesday, the government has withdrawn the carbon surcharge and reduced POL prices. The reductions came into effect on Wednesday. According to the notification, petrol prices have been reduced by Rs11.55 per litre to Rs50.58 from 62.13, a reduction of 18.6 per cent; HOBC prices by Rs16.24 per litre to Rs62.54 from 78.78, a reduction of 20 per cent; kerosene oil prices by Rs6.46 per litre to Rs52.89 from Rs59.35, a reduction of 11 per cent; and light diesel oil prices by Rs3.48 per litre to Rs51.46 from Rs54.94, a reduction of 6.33 per cent. These reductions put them back – more or less – to where they were before the budget was announced.

The ruling comes after the filing of petitions against the carbon surcharge by both a representative of the ruling PPP and the opposition PML-N. PPP Senator Rukhsana Zubairi and PML-N Secretary General Iqbal Zafar Jhagra had filed separate petitions challenging the increase in petroleum prices. It is in the court's short order that matters begin to get both interesting and complicated. In the short order, the court said as the government had made no effort to protect the environment through carbon tax; then it had no right to charge people for the facility – which if nothing else will have been a sharp smack across the face to whoever drafted the section of the budget that sought to camouflage an increase in an indirect tax under the guise of some sort of 'green' hocus-pocus.

The court also summoned the environment secretary at the next hearing for an explanation on whether the ministry had proposed the carbon tax. If, as may well transpire, the environment secretary knew as much about the proposal as he does about the fundamentals of quantum physics then we may assume that the left and right hands of governance are incommunicado. Also appearing in court was the governments Excuse-Maker-in-Chief, the Attorney General Latif Khosa. He told the court that the government had to impose the tax in order to overcome the budget deficit – as well he might. The chief justice however had other views on the matter, leaving the government to wonder if the line between the law and governance may have become blurred. The CJ said that such decisions were not in accordance with good governance. He may well be right in a purely subjective sense and few would disagree with him. But was he right in terms of the strict interpretation and application of the law? We will have to wait until the 9th to get a definitive answer on this matter.

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Rule of flaw

Friday, July 10, 2009

In a flurry of activity the government, by issuing a Presidential Ordinance (The Petroleum Development Levy Ordinance 2009) has trumped the decision by the Supreme Court to suspend the carbon surcharge subject to review. Petrol and diesel prices rose by 10 and 14 rupees respectively amid confusion on the forecourts of the nations' filling stations. The Supreme Court, sitting on Thursday morning decided to adjourn its hearing on the matter for four weeks – the Presidential Ordinance runs for 120 days, or a little over seventeen weeks - and the bizarre world of political life in Pakistan lurches another couple of steps along the broken road. Commentators and analysts were quickly at work, and mostly of the opinion that the government had done itself no favours - the Supreme Court may have overreached itself by trying to determine policy rather than ruling on its legitimacy; and the chief justice, whether he was right or wrong (in law) in his ruling had caught the zeitgeist and with it popular support. Government was quickly portrayed as 'ruling by ordinance' via a tight feudal cabal centred on the presidency. The government was also being perceived as having driven a coach-and-horses through parliament and it's function as the apex legislative body and the opposition; in the form of the PML-N, was crying 'foul' despite having voted for the budget alongside the government on the 26th June.

As if this was not enough to fill the New Media with a cacophony of talking heads blathering on about everything except how the government was going to heal its latest self-inflicted wounds, there are a host of other matters crowding for attention. To the surprise of few the census, due this year, has been postponed. This is probably the most sensible decision given the levels of insecurity that prevail across much of the country. Having at least 3.5 million of the population displaced and more than one war being fought within the national boundaries is hardly conducive to the holding of a credible census. Alongside this, the local elections have been postponed as well to a date yet to be determined but dependant, as ever, on 'the security situation'. Again, there is no surprise, and local elections in the current climate have the potential to generate yet more violence and disruption. However, we have yet to see whether the proposal to replace the nazims in very short order – they have to clear their desks some time in August – is going to create more problems that it solves. Was the nazim system so broke that it could only be fixed by replacing it with appointed (rather than elected) civil servants and bureaucrats? Are communities at the grassroots likely to get any better service from the civil service than they would from the people they chose for themselves? Or is this another case of 'out with the old and in with the new' as a matter of political whim and expediency – or was it truly, as is being portrayed, a move at the initiation of provincial governments themselves? The old adage goes … 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.' We await with interest the outcome of this latest 'fix'

A fabric of interconnected flaws now holds us together – just. Governance remains essentially feudal, with a cosmetic leavening of democracy that fools few. The judiciary is ably led but not yet completely back on its feet after the battering it received in the downfall-years of Musharraf. The economy is not exactly in freefall but neither is it robust and the power crisis eats away daily at what strengths it has. The wars being fought to regain the ground taken by extremism are far from won despite the daily positive messages delivered by a military that itself was, until recently, something of a character in search of an author. The battle now being waged over the price of fuels between the judiciary and the presidency (not the legislature) is the public playing-out of one act of a production whose script is endlessly revised, played to an audience numbed into ennui by having seen it all before. It has been said that there are only two certainties in life – death and taxation. On balance, we would prefer to pay the tax.

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Unspeakable crime

Friday, July 10, 2009

The president has taken strong notice of the rape and murder of a three-year-old girl in Karachi. He has asked for a detailed report on the incident. There are reports too that the case has been referred to an anti-terrorism court. Would that this could be any consolation to the parents who lost their child to a horror that will now haunt them forever. Mere words will never express the sense of horror and repugnance at this defilement of humanity. The girl was sexually assaulted before being strangled and her body concealed in a drain. Local people, suspicious of two men and acting on the information of another child, caught and beat the two men and held them until the police arrived. It quickly transpired that the men suspected of the crime were policemen themselves, traffic police, and that they were living in a house in the neighbourhood that they had rented a mere twelve days before committing the alleged crime. The two men indicated where the body could be found, it duly was and was returned to the family.

Although this case has brought an awful crime to the public eye, the greater tragedy is that this is but one of the countless numbers of children, some of them infants, that are sexually abused and then murdered every year. Open a newspaper almost any day and there will be at least one report of a similar incident somewhere in the country – and even if the toll is one a day then that translates to 365 every year. The true number will be far higher as many cases will go unreported. Were it not for the media, principally the print media, these child victims would go to their graves unnoticed by a wider world. Were it not for the media also few of these crimes would ever be investigated or successful prosecutions brought, such is the chronic corruption and institutional weakness of much of our police force, particularly in major cities like Karachi. Crimes such as this are a barometer of the moral decay that is eating away at what is left of civilized behaviour at a personal and institutional level. As Sana is buried in Karachi, government officials elsewhere are under investigation for the illegal selling of firearms licences. The World Bank reports on the mind-boggling corruption of the electricity industry. Life is cheap, crime is easy. To the casual observer it may seem that our moral compass is long broken – and they may be right.

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JUDICIAL CRISIS IN PAKISTAN
The honourable Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry of the Supreme Court of Pakistan was made ‘dysfunctional’ by the President of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf on March 9, 2007. It has been widely held as a dramatic move to constrain the judicial activism which became synonymous with CJ Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry.
The move to make Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry ‘non functional’ was immediately followed by yet another decision by the president to send a reference under Article 209 of the Constitution to the Supreme Judicial Council to investigate allegations of misconduct against him.

Earlier in the day he was summoned by the President in his army house where the purported meeting between the two continued for some five hours. The act of summoning the CJ in the army house itself has been considered as an unwelcome and unceremonious step.

General Musharraf appointed the third most senior judge, Justice Javed Iqbal, as the acting Chief Justice because the second most senior judge, Justice Rana Bhagwandas, is reportedly out of the country. This appointment is also controversial because different groups of legal fraternity have contested it as unconstitutional. Even the CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry has himself challenged the appointment of acting Chief Justice in his application before the Supreme Judicial Council stating,

“He (Justice Javed Iqbal) has been appointed as acting Chief justice contrary to article 180 of the constitution of Islamic republic of Pakistan which provides that acting Chief justice can be appointed when the office of the Chief justice of Pakistan is vacant or the Chief justice of Pakistan is absent or is unable to perform the functions of his office due to any other cause. The cause could be that if the Chief justice is incapable of properly performing the duties of his office by a reason of physical or mental incapacity which is not the case over here.”[1]

Although, Pakistan has a chequered judicial history, various methods have always been employed to dispose of the judges not toeing the establishment line, but this is an unprecedented move of making the CJ ‘non-functional’.

The CJ has several important judgments to his credit, the most significant being the case in which he overturned the privatization of the Pakistan Steel Mills and another in which he forced the government to locate ‘missing’ persons, allegedly held by the intelligence agencies.

To the utter discontent of the legal fraternity in particular and the whole nation in general the Chief Justice has been held incommunicado in his home. Even though the government has claimed time and again that the CJ has his own free will to meet anybody or go anywhere, but the claim has been debunked by many people, including the CJ himself in his application before the Supreme Judicial Council. Even the lawyers who are defending the CJ in the Supreme Judicial Council complain inaccessibility.

This episode in the history of Pakistan has engendered country wide protests against the incumbent government, with all national, provincial and district associations of Lawyers at the frontline observing strikes simultaneously.

The matter of the CJ is sub judice in the Supreme Judicial Council. The first hearing of the SJC took place on March 13, 2007 and then on March 16, 2007. Aitzaz Ahsan, who is leading the panel of advocates representing CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry, sought an adjournment for hearing of the application till March 26 on the plea that he had not been able to meet his client because of hindrances created by the security personnel deployed outside the Chief Justice House. The hearing has been adjourned to March 21, 2007.

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Homeward bound?

Monday, July 13, 2009

It finally looks as if there is a realistic possibility of at least some of the IDPs returning to their homes - and returning in a manner that has a degree of planning and forethought behind it. This marks the beginning of the rehabilitation phase, away from ‘relief’ and a progression to normalcy. There is much that needs to be done before the damage that these communities have suffered is repaired, and the cost in purely financial terms is huge. The Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes who is the lead UN relief coordinator warned that ‘billions’ of dollars would be needed for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the first year alone. ‘Billions’ of dollars do not grow on trees. In May of this year the United Nations launched a flash appeal for $542 million in emergency assistance, of which 42 per cent has so far been donated. Mr Holmes hoped that donors will respond generously – but the indicators are that donors are being tardy with their money. He went on to say that the UN did not intend launching a new appeal and that before the IDPs returned home there had to be security – at the same time acknowledging that…“The security situation is not going to be 100 per cent calm in these areas overnight…”

Mr Holmes has now returned to the US, but it is the turn of President Zardari to pay a visit to the IDPs on Monday. He is going to pay tribute to the various national and international organisations and members of civil society who have struggled over recent months to support the IDPs. Well he might, because without their help the plight of the displaced would be infinitely worse than it is. We hope that he will not forget to mention the generosity of the ordinary people of Pakistan as well, who put their hands in their pockets and put their trucks on the road, loaded with supplies, for those more needy than themselves. The ceremony of thanks is being timed to coincide with the return of the first IDPs who will go back to their homes in a phased and organized manner (hopefully), with appropriate transport being organized for them and some money in their pockets. As pointed out by Mr Holmes their security is not yet fully guaranteed and for many they will have lost homes, crops, flocks and fields and businesses. For those who rent their land rather than own it there will be a debt they cannot pay – perhaps for years. Homecomings are not always happy, and for the IDPs of Swat and Malakand life is going to be hard and uncertain for years to come.

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Taliban tactics

Monday, July 13, 2009

War is ever-evolving. As recently as 150 years ago civilian casualties as a result of warfare were rare; today dead civilians are ‘collateral damage’ and are inflicted by all sides. The war being fought by our army with the Taliban is itself changing, and changing fast in some ways – especially in the way the Taliban are learning to adapt their tactics and operations to the ‘asymmetric’ form of warfare. They are using the battlefields of southern Afghanistan as a training ground and a laboratory – with the results of their experiments in war-fighting being used back over the border as they fight the Pakistan army. Any notion that the Taliban are some sort of ‘amateur army’ made up of poorly-trained and equipped volunteers must be dispelled. The Taliban are a tightly disciplined fighting force perfectly suited to the terrain they are currently fighting in – with the terrain acting as a force-multiplier for them given their familiarity with it and a degree of support (not universal) from local populations.

Our forces, trained and equipped for a conventional war (though themselves learning new methodologies) are currently operating on a ‘clear and hold’ basis, which is conducive to a return by those displaced by the fighting but at the same time renders our forces vulnerable. Troops need supplies, they need to patrol the area they have taken; and they become targets for the hit and run tactics of the Taliban who fight in small highly-mobile units. Those tactics have been particularly honed in ambushes, as evidenced by a recent devastating attack on an army convoy which was, to all intents and purposes, wiped out by the Taliban. They will target communication trucks and radio operators, seeking to break the command link. They have learned to be better able to coordinate their fire and use volleys of rockets rather than single rounds, have prepared fire positions and kill-zones and hold virtually all of the high ground in the areas they fight in. Where they lose high ground to the army they interdict re-supply thus tying up logistical resources that could be used elsewhere. Booby-traps, roadside bombs and other types of IEDs – including anti-armour shaped charges – and suicide bombers are all now deployed often outside of the zone of principal conflict. Out-of-theatre operations by the Taliban demoralise the non-combatant population and create a climate of fear as well as – again - forcing the state to utilize resources to protect the civilian population. Alongside purely tactical adaptation the Taliban have weeded out many lower echelon commanders who were seen as not as enthusiastic as they should have been, and tightened internal discipline.

Their great weakness lies in their vulnerability to air strike and electronic intelligence/surveillance. Our forces are using air power increasingly effectively (though with delivery systems that are not designed for the job) and as pressure mounts on the Taliban and they are squeezed into a smaller area of operation they will rely increasingly on trackable radio and mobile phone communications which will allow accurate targeting by air assets. If the Taliban ever acquired ground-to-air missile capability things would change again. The Russians retreated from Afghanistan within three years of the jihadis gaining the ability to shoot down their helicopters and other aircraft. No doubt many military fingers are currently crossed in the hope that this is a capacity our current foes will not acquire.

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We're watching!

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Ours is an increasingly 'watched' society, and the means of watching is changing and advancing all the time. Some have the misfortune to be watched by drones, with disaggregation a consequence. Others are so careless and ignorant of modern devices (depending on one's point of view) that they are caught in the act of making a fraudulent credit card purchase. Some are caught live on camera committing acts of terrorism and then sauntering off seemingly without a care in the world. Still others may find themselves in a spot of bother if they read that jokey SMS or email that is in circulation about the alleged naughtiness of this-that-or-the-other government member or high official. To be specific, the spot of bother they may find themselves in could be 14 years behind bars after a prosecution under the Cyber Crimes Act – and for those who are living abroad and think themselves out of reach -- bad luck, because the Act reaches out to you as well.

Our outstanding and utterly impeccable Interior Minister Rehman Malik; a man of shining probity who has never done a wrong thing in his life nor have any of his relatives for at least three generations back; has been in action again. He has announced that the FIA has started a campaign against those who send scurrilous or inflammatory stories by email or SMS, stories completely without foundation that damage the standing of the sparkle-bright and completely blemish-free diamonds of democratic governance who struggle day and night for the good of the common man. He has instructed the director general of the FIA 'to monitor and check these stories and messages and take necessary action under the Cyber Crime Act.' Strict action will be taken against the cyber-miscreants. Interpol has been requested for assistance with identifying the emails and websites registered abroad that are being used to disseminate such glaring untruths and libels. All ISPs are to have their waste-paper baskets checked every day for incriminating material. Anybody in receipt of one of these dreadful documents is encouraged to register their complaints on a government website. There are undoubtedly illegal and dangerous-to-the-state activities involving the mobile phone network and the internet. They need to be stopped, fast, and the perpetrators brought to book; but we do wonder precisely what level of threat is perceived in a cheeky SMS or email – so remember; they're watching.


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Honest words

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Our prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has been undergoing something of a transformation since he – a relative unknown outside political circles – found himself saddled with one of the world's least attractive job opportunities. His early performances in public were often stumbling and uncertain, and anybody who saw him on his first big international outing mumbling inarticulately alongside George Bush would have thought him a square peg in a round hole. Yet times, and people, can change. Mr Gilani in recent months has developed a gift for clarity and honesty that few would have suspected he had in him. His latest foray into the uncharted waters of better governance came when he spoke at the International Islamic University in Islamabad on Sunday. He spoke a truth that is self-evident but rarely gets a public airing, and certainly does not get to be the subject of open debate between a senior public figure and a humble student. This is what he said…"The system in the country is a hotchpotch as neither is it parliamentary nor presidential. Therefore, reforms are being introduced to restore the 1973 constitution, which has a parliamentary system." The fifteen words of the first of his sentences cut to the very heart of many of the difficulties that we are not only experiencing today, but have bedevilled our past as well.

Warming to his task he took a question from each of the gold-medallists at the convocation. A woman medallist asked him about a code of ethics for the media. His response… "The media is going through an evolutionary process and once it gets mature enough, it should be more responsible and the government has no intention to impose curbs on the media." Few would argue and we are delighted to hear it. Unlike the majority of our leaders here was a man at the top of the political tree willing to go into a public space and admit faults and shortcomings. He was engaged in that most elusive of activities – dialogue. We need to see more of this openness, this willingness to engage, by our leaders. A little honesty can be made to go a long way. 'Hotchpotch' – about right, Mr Prime Minister.


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Own goal?

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

An explosion in or close to a house at Chak 129/15-L Mian Channu has killed at least sixteen, wounded perhaps 50 and destroyed or damaged anywhere between 40 and 100 houses. Details are still coming in but it is already clear that this was no suicide attack or targeted bombing. The property where the explosion occurred belonged to a Mr Riaz Ali, who the local police say belonged to a banned outfit. He operated a madressah for young boys and girls on the site, some of whom are among the dead and missing. The size and shape of the crater are indicative of a very large explosion – 40 feet wide – and unlike the blast-pattern made by a suicide bomb or even a device carried by vehicle. A clue to the cause of the blast is found in the reports, confirmed by local police to the media who were quick to the scene; that rockets, detonators and suicide jackets were found at the site. Footage broadcast on private TV channels within an hour of the blast appeared to show rocket tubes being removed from the crater. No organisation has claimed responsibility at the time of writing.

In the terms of those who fight terrorism the world over, this is perhaps an 'own goal.' In the sporting world an 'own goal' occurs when a member of your own side puts the ball in your own net. Terrorists can score an 'own goal' by the premature or accidental explosion of a device. Sometimes these detonations are triggered by counter-terrorist operations and at other times they are caused by the careless moving of unstable explosives or the poor assembly of a device. The tragedy this time is that once again young – and innocent – lives have been lost because weapons of war were cached in the very school where they were being taught. Despicable by any standards, but probably not a surprise.

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Virus alert

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

The Sillispeak virus is on the loose again and this time has wormed its way into the software that powers NWFP Chief Minister Ameer Haidar Hoti. Sillispeak can afflict anybody, but it tends to target politicians and there have been several reports in recent weeks of outbreaks in the upper levels of governance. Chief Minister Hoti was addressing a gathering at the Government College Palosa (Charsadda) intended to mark the start of the return of the IDPs on Monday. An assortment of worthies was on hand - provincial ministers, MPAs from Swat and Charssadda and other provincial and district officials were also present. The seriousness of the infection was rapidly apparent. The chief minister said that the war against those who had destruction on their agenda would last 'until the elimination of the last terrorist' – at which point his anti-viral software flashed a 'Sillispeak' alert. He went deeper into viral infection by telling his audience that the Nizam-e-Adl regulations were promulgated on the requirements of the people of Malakand and neither his nor any other arm of government had been under any pressure from anybody. The virus abated somewhat as he spoke of the role of the prime minister and the president, the federal government, the donor agencies and NGOs, and the ordinary people of everywhere who had given sterling service. Flashing ceased as he spoke of the role of the army but flickered again when he mentioned that the military had the support of all sections of society. Lights came on all over the place when Sillispeak struck one more time. The chief minister, clearly under the influence of a powerful inner force, said that 'the terrorists had been defeated' – going on to say that he hoped the general public would immediately point out any terrorists they might come across in their daily lives in order that they may be exterminated.

We admit to a degree of levity in the foregoing, but believe it illustrates a valid – and serious – point. The terrorists have not been defeated, not at all. Their commanders are apparently alive and well despite the pronouncements that one of them, Mullah Fazlullah was at deaths door, and they continue to battle our forces on every front where we fight. Their foot soldiers are in the process of redeployment. Defeated they are not. To suggest that no pressure was applied regarding the Nizam-e-Adl regulations goes even beyond the predations of the Sillispeak virus. The 'elimination of the last terrorist'? Dream on, Sir. And if the chief minister really thinks that anybody in their right mind is going to point out a gun-toting extremist to the relevant authorities then he really has had a hard-drive crash that will need techie attention for days. Public figures, if they are to retain their credibility, have to be heard to speak in a way that reflects reality as experienced by those outside the bubble of governance.


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A slow start

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

All governments, whatever their type and wherever they are in the world have a 'duty of care' towards the populace. Duty is care is a broad brush, and no government can anticipate the needs of every citizen, and poorer governments tend to care less well than richer. Despite our relative poverty Pakistan is able to display a duty of care that is sometimes a positive credit to it. Much criticism, some of it ill-founded, has been levelled at those agencies responsible for the care of the IDPs. There was certainly a level of unpreparedness, there was chaos and confusion, but against that has to be set the fact that this was one of the largest population displacements in our national history. Now, the return has started and on the first evidence it looks like 'duty of care' has translated into something less than success. Only a fraction of almost two million internally displaced persons (IDPs) went home on the first day of the organised return on Monday, and early reports on Tuesday suggest that the trickle has failed to gather pace. Many remain fearful about their security and others are refusing to leave the camps without the cash grant that was promised by the government. Some families are sending an 'advance party' of two or three members to ascertain the position of family holdings and businesses. If all is well – or minimally sustainable – then the rest will follow.

The plan for day one was that 720 buses and 52 trucks were going to repatriate 5,760 families from Landakay, Barikot, Guratai and Kota areas of the Swat Valley. Those living in schools and private houses as well as camps were to have gone back first. Security measures were in place including state-of-the-art vehicle scanners capable of scanning large vehicles, army air cover and surveillance and a range of check posts; all in the hope of catching or deterring any militants who were seeking to smuggle themselves back whence they came. Mobile health units travelled with the convoys, and one month's foodstuff was to be provided to every family. All government leave has been stopped until further notice and government officers instructed to remain at their posts in the areas that IDPs are returning to.

Few plans of this magnitude survive intact beyond the first hours of implementation. Azam Khan, a senior official in the government's emergency response unit, said that only 192 families out of an estimated 2,680 left three camps on Monday. "We expect an increase in coming days," Mr Khan told reporters at Charsadda, where 22 out of a planned 247 families left for Swat district. Despite the failure to hit any of the targets on day one, a slow start is better than no start. A lot will depend on what the family forward-parties report back, and if they are positive then the trickle could well become a flood. It is to be hoped that it does, because a flood in the form of the monsoon is fast approaching; but we can hardly blame the IDPs for their caution and unwillingness to return. The Taliban are pushed back, not defeated, and ground taken has to be held. We hope for the sake of the displaced that this is a journey they only have to make once.

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Ripple effect

Thursday, July 16, 2009

A representative of the Quilliam Foundation, a think-tank based in the UK, has recently been in Pakistan and much interviewed by print and electronic media. Quilliam is a relatively new organisation and has a number of interesting features – not least of these being that two of its founding members Ed Husain and Maajid Nawaz are both former Islamists who have rejected extremism and militancy. It is Mr Nawaz who has been touring our universities and getting slightly mixed reviews as he did. Poachers turned to being gamekeepers are always viewed with a degree of suspicion but in this case we are prepared to give Mr Nawaz the benefit of the doubt. He is an authentic voice of moderation and is one of the few who is able to construct and deliver an alternative narrative to that offered by those currently battling our forces in NWFP and elsewhere.

Now back in London, we note that he has spoken of the need for (UK) communities to stand up to those who preach intolerance, and also note that he comments that extremist influence in the UK has lessened of late in the light of attempts by the UK government to engage in dialogue with those – particularly disaffected youths – who may be attracted by the banner of extremism. He also comments on the difficulty of getting that message across when drone strikes, civilian casualties and extraordinary rendition are at the forefront of the minds of young Muslims living in the west. Whatever one may think of Mr Nawaz or the Quilliam Foundation, we have to acknowledge that it is a meaningful attempt to bridge a gap. Moreover, it could provide us with an object-lesson in that we lack a similar organisation with the same clarity of voice and purpose here. There is any number of civil society groups and NGOs that have a similar message, but their voices and arguments seem to carry little weight or resonance with those whose extremism they deplore and wish to countervail.

We need to hear the voices of those who now eschew extremism, who have left behind the Kalashnikov and the IED, for theirs is the voice that might just catch the ear of the common man – and woman. Finding them may be difficult but it is a search well worth the making; creating a safe space for them to speak, however, would be a yet greater challenge.


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Think first

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Politicians and civil servants who speak directly to the public should be fitted with a 'delay' mechanism that operates every time they go to open their mouths. The mechanism should have a neural linkage to the part of their brain which has a switch saying on one side 'nonsense' and on the other 'common sense'. The default position is 'neutral' – but rarely engaged. Three of our leading politicians would have benefited from the employment of this device in the last twenty-four hours. Firstly, the president.

In a meeting held at the presidency to discuss the national security situation he said…"The fight against militancy and terrorism will end with the complete elimination of militants." This is nonsense. No nation anywhere on earth has ever completely eliminated militants or the threat of terrorism. Nor will they – and we are no different. These are threats that can be fought, managed even, but never eliminated. Secondly, the prime minister. He it was who deployed the ever-deadly 'S' word – 'Soon'. His actual words…"The nation will soon hear the good news ... soon the army operation will be over. A survey is being conducted, after which the reconstruction process will start". He said that in a meeting with reporters at the Prime Minister's House. As noted on these pages in the recent past 'soon' is a very elastic concept. A survey is being conducted? A survey of what, precisely? And how long will this survey take? Whilst we hesitate to label this complete nonsense it is at best confusing and imprecise. Take for instance what Interior Minister Rehman Malik has told us about one of Pakistan's 'most wanted' -- Mullah Fazlullah. He has claimed that Fazlullah has been 'seriously wounded'. Where is the report of the nature of his wounds and how they were inflicted and how come no news reporter or agency has got a whiff of this tale of 'badly wounded?'

None of these three is likely to have set out to wilfully deceive the people they were addressing – the people of Pakistan. There is no need to question the real spirit behind these statements, even if those who made them got a bit carried away. The true intention is worthy of praise. The president really does want to eliminate terrorism; the prime minister really does want people to have good news 'soon'. There is no escaping this. What all these leaders of ours have to understand and remember is that what they say matters, that the people do actually listen to their words; and what is perhaps worse they – perhaps perversely – heed them. And this has its consequences. They derive perceptions and make decisions on the basis of what they hear from their leaders. An IDP might conclude that it is safe to return home – even though it may be far from safe; but then the IDPs' 'soon' is probably a different 'soon' to the one employed by the prime minister. The interior minister's statement regarding Mullah Fazlullah was reported by all of the international news agencies and wire services. If his words prove true, fine – if not he looks a fool, and an irresponsible fool at that. Politicians everywhere dislike the language of precision, because therein lie hostages to fortune; but our leaders should engage their brains before opening their mouths, thus avoiding the insertion of their feet.

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A historian's death

Friday, July 17, 2009

In the death of historian K.K. Aziz, Pakistan has lost a true asset. He was a scholar of exceptional quality. Aziz's extraordinary courage, in the face of all sorts of pressure and unyielding dedication to the truth even in times where critical honesty was a dangerous commodity to be found with, will be sorely missed. He was a scholar with rare integrity, especially in his writings on history. He was not afraid to recall history as it happened and in a light that may not have endeared him to many – but it was not fame that the professor was after. His book "The Murder of History" embodies this struggle.

Pakistan is a country where truth has never found a place, which is probably why Aziz was forced to flee the country during the intolerant reign of Gen Ziaul Haq. Our continued repetition of past mistakes can very closely be linked to the distortion of our history to suit our leadership. These untruths, propagated on a massive scale through the curriculums of public schools across the country, have in turn bred a sense of acceptance of injustices in our masses. This has been done at the expense of a swelling intolerance to warranted criticism from within and without. Aziz's career should be a role model for all academicians in the country, particularly our historians. It is through their work that Pakistan can reconcile itself with its past and thereby pave the way to the future. It is through academic integrity and the production of accurate portrayals of our past that the next generation of this country will be informed enough not to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors.


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Beyond records

Friday, July 17, 2009

Pakistan managed to break India's record on Wednesday -- and found a place in the Guinness Book of World Records -- by planting the largest number of trees in a single day. The feat was achieved in a frenetic exercise in Keti Bundar, on the Indus Delta, where a staggering 541,176 saplings were planted in a single day by some 400 trained workers, amid much fanfare from officials of the Sindh forest department and environmentalists. It goes without saying that this is a welcome and positive initiative. Pakistan's once thriving mangrove forests along its coasts have been rapidly depleting due to a combination of factors, including the construction of dams and human intervention. Mangroves not only serve as a nursery for shrimps and other fish, which constitute one of the country's major exports, but also act as a natural barrier to calamities such as floods and tsunamis.

However, as in most well-meaning initiatives, this one too requires careful monitoring and nurturing if it is to go beyond merely making it to the record books. In too many cases, tree plantation drives end in naught mainly because there are no proper mechanisms or institutions in place to maintain and oversee the initiatives over a long-term period. In the case of mangroves, merely protecting them from human beings and animals, or even local development policies, is not enough. For mangroves to thrive, it is necessary to have the right combination of sweet and saline water. This is not always possible owing to the construction of large dams upstream on the Indus and the perennial water shortages caused due to the higher priority traditionally given to agriculture. When people complain that a huge quantity of water from the Indus is 'going waste' because it is simply allowed to flow into the sea, they are often displaying ignorance about the importance of the complex mangrove ecosystem and its requirements. This is where a more holistic and macro-level environmental policy comes in. While it is important to educate local people about the importance of preserving and protecting the mangroves, it is even more important to educate our policy-makers about the crucial economic and social importance of this unique ecosystem. What is required is both local level initiatives and the need to frame policies that keep the protection of the mangroves high on the list of priorities.


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Some respite

Friday, July 17, 2009

The Supreme Court's ruling that eunuchs are equal citizens of Pakistan and should be treated as such by the government is a welcome one, and one that deserves the immediate attention of the authorities concerned. While protectionism and financial aid from the government may not be a long term and sustainable solution to the problem of eunuchs being ostracised, since this is essentially an issue of societal attitudes, it will certainly be an important first step in a shift of psyche. The marginalisation of eunuchs is well-documented and needs little reiteration. Continuing to languish in the fringes of society, eunuchs have long been the subject of ridicule and mistreatment by not only the general public, but, more importantly, also by state-run institutions, such as the police and other government departments. Quite frankly, the state has never treated them as rights-holding citizens of Pakistan. This is why the court ruling is even more pertinent.

Properly sensitised state policies towards marginalised segments of society are an important step towards emancipation of the downtrodden in the larger sense. Hence, the onus is on the government to not only abide by their constitutional duty and ensure that eunuchs are treated as equal citizens, but adopt policies that will also set the ball rolling for general acceptance by society. For starters, the government must set examples for the rest of society by taking initiatives such as including eunuchs in their welfare programmes, especially those pertaining to housing and employment. Perhaps the option of quotas ought to be discussed as a form of initial protection. Such a move will act as a much-needed initial impetus for a change in societal mindsets. Bringing them into the mainstream will not only break the cycle of begging and prostitution that a major chunk of the eunuch population is forced into thanks to a lack of acceptance and opportunity, but also help relax unfair taboos that are caste upon them through sustained exposure to stereotypes. As things stand, the government is struggling to provide even the most basic of rights. Cases of Eunuchs not being issued proper national identity cards continue to surface as do cases of them being picked up by police from the streets and assaulted, often sexually. The testimonies of two eunuchs in the Supreme Court proved this. Taking action against the police officials who allegedly threatened and abused them will be a good starting point.

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