Editorial: The Nation. - Page 5

shallowwater · #41 Wednesday, June 03, 2009

1. Before the budget.

HALFWAY into the Nation's Pre-Budget Seminar, an audience member got on his feet, interrupted the proceedings and started speaking. He was addressing all the featured speakers but primarily the Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin. His rustic ramblings were peppered with the usual populist references to the common man. Had he been asked about specifics, he would not know what exactly it was that he wanted. This is not, however, to begrudge him his resentment: to the disenfranchised, resentment, lamentation and the occasion bits of humour are all they have to deal with their sorry lot in lives.
But behind the public's understanding of the economy, indeed all of governance, there seems to be an idea that there is a lever in the executive offices throughout the country. That all the leaders have to do is to pull it and you'll get what you desire. As one of the speakers, Tariq Saeed Saigol said, referring to an editorial of this paper, the government wants to get the public's goodwill that comes from large public spending programmes but doesn't want to risk the public ire that comes from increasing the taxes that will finance those programmes. That is because the government knows that the public, even in countries like the US, does not understand that wanting one (more government programmes) automatically rules out the other (lower or same taxes). The public - and, it must be admitted, the media as well - rails on and on about, say, spending on foreign tours and procuring luxury vehicles. But even though governments should be spartan, cutting these really wouldn't do all that much to solve our problems of limited fiscal space. The masses, if they insist on cuts in these bits of spending, however small their proportion is to our overall fiscal outlay, should be humoured. But the really big issues of our economy are not as easy; they are those of uncomfortable trade-offs. The taxation/public spending trade-off. The inflation/unemployment trade-off. The growth/inflation trade-off. The ease of indirect taxes versus the necessary slog that our direct tax structure needs. The fact that the government needs, out of bare necessity, the revenues it generates from duties on petrol goods. The list goes on. In a lively seminar, the Adviser rubbished all rumours about a planned increase in the sales tax rate but expressed his desire to broaden the tax net. This would ensure that the system does not simply increase the taxes on those sectors already paying taxes; undertaxed sectors need to be zeroed in on. Mr Tarin has his work cut out for him. He is going to be drafting the federal budget at what is an undoubtedly difficult time for the economy. Managing the economy while courting public wrath over unavoidable steps isn't easy. But such are the burdens of governance.

2. Still a long way to go.

The retrieval of Mingora, the main town of the Swat valley, from the militants' control, sooner than it was expected, is a matter of great relief and raises the expectation that it will not be long, perhaps, before the military campaign draws to a close. In fact, Defence Secretary Syed Athar Ali, who is presently attending a security conference at Singapore, has said that it would just take another two to three days before the operation is completed, a view termed by officials back home as "overly optimistic". It is interesting to note at the same time that the army's rapid advance into the rebel-held areas at a relatively much lower cost to its personnel (81) compared to the loss of militants' lives (1,217) has given the lie to the alarmist, masquerading as informed, view in the West about the threat to the very authority of the state and its nuclear assets.
Yet, as top army commanders have opined, military operation is not the solution; it is a temporary remedy. One might interject though that the operation's real challenge, after the terrorists have been routed, lies in hunting down those who have chosen to lie low till the time the troops have withdrawn. In this difficult exercise of differentiating between militants and innocent citizens the help of local residents should prove crucial. And there are reassuring reports that the people are coming forward to identify them. There is little doubt that a vast majority of the population is averse to the ultra-conservative (rather un-Islamic) version of the glorious religion the militants wanted to impose. Only after these sinister elements have been removed from the scene that one would say with confidence that the area is clear for the peaceful residents to return. But, perhaps, a still more daunting challenge for the authorities is the return and rehabilitation of the displaced persons whose number is being variously computed between 2.5 million and three million. Not only is there the question of confidence about the security aspect but also of the objective realities of existence once they decide to get back. Their homes might have been so damaged that they have become uninhabitable, their shops and businesses looted and ruined, and basic infrastructure like water supply, gas pipeline, electricity lines, road and bridges network destroyed. There is urgent need to repatriate the IDPs if the government wishes to avert a much severer crisis emerging from the camps presently housing them. Thus, things have to move fast and the damage has to be repaired. There is no time to lose.

3. Iranian disruption.

THE bomb blast in the mosque in Zahidan is apparently an attempt to create sectarian rifts in the Shia-majority country, but then there should be factored in the attack on President Mehmood Ahmedinejad's election office in the same city afterwards, but on the same day. Though the attacks are of different intensities, and achieved different results, both are equally to be condemned in no uncertain terms. The bomb blast has been blamed on the USA and Israel, by the Interior Minister, and it was carried out on a Friday, and killed 25 persons in a suicide bombing. The attack later on President Ahmadinejad's election campaign centre in the city did not result in any deaths, but led to the wounding of several campaign workers. The responsibility for the mosque attack was taken by Jundullah, an opposition group. Finger has also been pointed at Pakistan. It needs to clear the suspicion. The assumption of American and Israeli involvement might seem a kneejerk reaction by the Iranian authorities, but it is based on the capture of a suspect in the mosque attack.
Israel must be continuing in its role as the USA's policeman in the region if it is involved in the mosque attack. Yet it should also be kept in mind that Iran is virtually the only Muslim country still to actively oppose Israel. Therefore, Israeli action against Iran is a very real possibility, especially in opposing Ahmadinejad, who is a candidate in this year's presidential election on June 12. Also, Iran experienced US terrorist actions before the previous presidential election. The USA has carried out terrorist actions in Iran before, and this episode was another instance. The USA is also a strong possibility, if it is assumed, as it seems safe to do, that the Obama Administration is furthering the same policies as saw the Bush Administration dub Iran part of the Axis of Evil.
If the USA thinks that this is the way to break the will of the Iranian people, it is mistaken. Instead of such coercive methods, it would do better if it engaged in a sincere dialogue.

shallowwater · #42 Wednesday, June 03, 2009

1. Go for reconstruction.

PRESIDENT Asif Zardari's statement that each and every internally displaced family and person will be rehabilitated with honour and dignity, is welcome. So is his instruction to the government to immediately release Rs 500 million from the Baitul Maal fund for those living in makeshift camps in the NWFP. The President issued these orders at a meeting with a delegation of parliamentarians from Malakand who expressed their reservations about a meagre amount of Rs 25,000 earlier promised for each displaced family.
The announcement coincided with a go-ahead from the government to the IDPs from Buner to return to their homes, with the Interior Ministry also directing the officials serving in the district to resume their duties. That the civil administration would start functioning immediately in the areas already cleared of the militants would give hope to the people coming back from the camps that their grievances would be redressed. It would also put to rest the rumours that those evacuated from the troubled region, after the Army had launched the operation almost a month ago, would stay in the camps indefinitely. The assurance came from the highest level with a person no less than President Zardari telling a meeting in Islamabad on Sunday that the IDPs would return to their homes sooner rather than later and their properties, damaged or destroyed, would be repaired and rebuilt by the government. The Army's success in regaining the control of Mingora marks a significant milestone but it is disturbing to find the people living there suffering severe hardships without sufficient water, electricity, gas and food for over a month. During curfew relaxation for six hours on Sunday, there was hardly any transport available to the people who wanted to reach the camps set-up in Mardan and Swabi. There is no denying the fact that the ongoing operation has to be pursued to its logical end but it is equally important to focus on the reconstruction phase once the government is through with the resettlement issue in the areas that have so far been declared safe for the return of the IDPs. This includes reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed by militants, the proper functioning of government hospitals and educational institutions and repair of the communication network. The sooner the government ensures basic amenities to the people returning to their homes, the quicker the crisis caused by the largest ever internal displacement of the country's history would be resolved. There is also a need to pursue foreign donors to fulfill pledges of assistance they had made for the affected people.

2. A challenging task.

THE authors of the National Judicial Policy have undertaken a challenging task. Any impartial opinion survey would bring out the unpalatable fact that few people entertain trust in judiciary. The distrust has often led to demands for parallel judicial systems, ranging from summary military courts to the Nizam-e-Adl in Swat. There is a perception that that Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and a number of Supreme Court judges had been removed because they resisted pressures exerted by powerful circles that led the legal community and civil society to launch a nearly two-year long historic movement in support of an independent judiciary. The National Judicial Policy, if implemented in letter and spirit, would hopefully redress some of the age-old complaints regarding the working of the judicial system.
The main problems that the people face emanate from delay in justice which amounts to denial of justice, the high cost of litigation, the rampant corruption in judiciary from the highest to the lowest tiers and its subservience to the powers that be. The huge backlog of 1,704,871 cases pending at all levels presents a major challenge. While one welcomes the decision to dispose of the backlog in one year, one would expect that the twin imperatives of quick justice and of justice not only done but also seen to have been done are given equal importance. What is required is cooperation by the police and the lawyers if the deadlines set for deciding the cases of various categories are to be met. The hurdles in the way of the police, which is required to submit their report within 14 days, have to be removed by the provincial administrations by freeing the investigation staff from other duties. The lawyers too will have to be persuaded not to seek unnecessary delays.
Taking action against corrupt judicial officers is a tricky issue. Cells being established in every High Court to entertain complaints about corruption may not be sufficient, as common litigants alone would not be able to provide proofs of corruption. The Supreme Court should require declarations of personal and close relatives' wealth from the judges from time to time.

shallowwater · #43 Wednesday, June 03, 2009

1. A total war.

AS the fight against militants rages on in Malakand Division and beyond, President Zardari declared on Monday that it was a "total war" that would be taken to its logical conclusion. He was addressing a high-level meeting at Islamabad that was attended by Prime Minister Gilani, concerned Federal Ministers, provincial Chief Ministers, the NWFP Governor, the COAS and top security officials. Understandably, the President as well as other participants felt satisfied at the significant gains the Pakistan Army was making and, according to presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar, President Zardari was hopeful that the day was not far off when the insurgency would be so crippled that it would cease to be a threat.
As the insurgents retreat from the Swat valley, the authorities cannot afford to remain unmindful of their impulse to create chaotic conditions in society as an act of desperation. The kidnapping of students, teachers and staff members of the Razmak Cadet School on Monday, who were thankfully rescued after prompt military action, is one such instance. The nation also recently witnessed the suicide bombing of an ISI building at a sensitive spot in Lahore, following which one senses in the air a greater focus on security on the part of concerned agencies. In this backdrop, Monday's high-level meeting decided to raise a special police force in all the provinces and install scanners and signal jammers at the entry points of almost all major cities. While the country does need a police force that is well versed in modern techniques and is equipped with necessary tools to meet the daunting challenge of terrorism, one would like to hope that the training is also imparted to the existing personnel in the course of time. The pity is that our security personnel, mostly semi-literate and underpaid, are not security conscious. There is urgent need to instil that consciousness in them. The installation of scanners and metal detectors would certainly be of help and should be expedited. The President also made a very important point: the need for the reconstruction of areas devastated by the fighting so that when the displaced persons go back to their homes, they could restart their lives, putting behind the unfortunate period of suffering in a forced internal exile. Rehabilitation of the uprooted is a most crucial phase of the campaign if the hearts and minds of the local population have to be won, and should not remained confined to words alone. The help that the international community and the local population are giving in the form of funds and other types of assistance should be utilised to the maximum benefit of the affected persons. The battle would only have been won when the authorities had succeeded in creating conducive living conditions.

2. Imperative need.

THE JUI-F and the Jamaat-i-Islami have reportedly been striving to revive the coalition of religious parties known as the MMA. Obviously, in the fractious politics of the country, the people would be keenly watching any attempt at unity between various political parties and the common programme of action they formulate.
At the same time, it seems it is high time that leaders of the various schools of religious thought and religious parties were brought together to thoroughly deliberate and come up with an answer to a fundamental question that is confronting the nation. Setting up of a conference, on the pattern of an APC, could help evolve a decisive policy on the issue of extremism. They must sit together and find a cure to the menace of militancy and the twisted version of religion that is being preached by uninformed religious zealots. The teachings of the Taliban-style clerics have played havoc with the country. Religious parties like the JUI-F and the JUI-S wield considerable influence over people of the tribal belt. They have been running networks of seminaries with large numbers of students and followers. The present situation demands that they take a different course than what they have been treading so far. They must join hands to eliminate the menace of extremism from society and drive out forces, which are disposed to violence. One would have thought that they actively engaged themselves in containing the series of deadly bomb attacks the country is witnessing, killing innocent civilians. The whole country should have a transparent strategy against the prevailing retrogressive mindset. It should not be that hard for a nation facing an existential threat from insurgent forces to come up with a clear-cut answer. The religious parties stood united during the Musharraf era because they were in power, ruling over the NWFP and partly over Balochistan. And problems arose as soon as the alliance was routed in the elections. Now once again they have shown interest to form a coalition with the express intent that it is aimed at steering the country out of the present turbulent times. Perhaps, a major factor behind the commitment might be the madrassah business where the government intends to introduce reforms. The JUI-F, JUI-S and Jamaat have stakes in the enterprise and they should join hands and help the authorities to devise a system of education at madrassahs that is in tune with the requirements of the modern age so that the students who qualify from these institutions could become useful members of society.

3. GM's collapse.

GENERAL Motors, the corporation representative of American capitalism, has gone under, almost symbolic of the plight of capitalism in the present global crisis. Once, about 50 years ago, its Chairman pronounced that "What's good for General Motors is good for America." That was the apogee of American capitalism, and the close linkage between its government and its corporations. However, the corporation that filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday was not the same, and did so to avoid being dragged down by its myriad creditors. The corporation faced $172.8 billion in debt, with assets of only $82.3 billion. Official expect the process of restructuring the giant to be similar to that undergone by Chrysler, the second largest American automaker which went through a similar process for the same reason. Chrysler filed for bankruptcy protection about a month ago.
GM enters the process with billions of dollars in federal funding as well as agreements to lay off labour, and will get $30 billion after the process to top the $20 billion it already has had, which will give the US government 60 percent in the auto giant, while the governments of Canada and Ontario will put up $9.5 billion for a 12 percent stake. GM's European Opel and Vauxhall subsidiaries are already leaving the GM empire, under a separate rescue scheme, bond holders are being offered a debt-equity swap involving $27.1 billion in exchange for a 10 percent share and an option on another 15 percent. All this is to avoid bankruptcy, not because the Obama Administration has any intention of nationalizing the automaker even over the long term, or participating in its day-to-day operations.
The Pakistani government, which through nationalizations became the country's biggest entrepreneur, would do well to learn from this example, which shows that government has no business to be in business. It has done well to get out of much business, but it needs to get out of remaining loss-making enterprises, like PIA, Railways and WAPDA.

shallowwater · #44 Thursday, June 04, 2009

1. Hafiz Saeed's release.

AFTER being kept in detention for nearly six months, Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed has been released at the orders of a Lahore High Court Bench, which maintained that sufficient grounds were not available to detain the prisoner. Talking to media soon after his release, Hafiz Saeed again reiterated the stand that he opposed suicide attacks.
Within hours of the release, Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna accused Pakistan of lack of seriousness in fighting terror and probing the Mumbai attacks. He vowed that New Delhi would mobilise the world community to pressure Pakistan. In other words, India would like to internationalise the issue instead of talking to Pakistan, a policy it adopted after the Mumbai attacks. His remark "Now it is in Pakistan's court to create conditions for the dialogue to be resumed" indicates that New Delhi would use the issue as an excuse to continue to postpone the composite dialogue which puts on the table among other matters, the core issue of Kashmir. The Indian media was not far behind the government, as invariably happens when it comes to maligning Pakistan. The Times of India accused the Pakistan government of engineering the release of Hafiz Saeed by presenting before the court a weak case. According to the paper, there was an essential ambiguity in Islamabad's anti-terror commitments. On the other hand, nailing the Indian propaganda barrage, Pakistan's Foreign Office has maintained that the release had taken place under the orders of an independent court. Replying to the charge that Pakistan is not cooperating to prosecute those responsible for Mumbai blasts, the spokesman reiterated Islamabad's stand that New Delhi has continued to hold back the required information. It is highly condemnable to deprive anyone of his liberties as ensured by the Constitution without a valid reason, in the present case for nearly half a year. There was no justification to put Hafiz Saeed under house arrest before first making sure that a foolproof case could be made out against him. The court was told that Hafiz Saeed was booked in compliance with the UN resolution. The charge was levelled presumably without going through the provisions. As the counsel for the petitioner argued, the UNSC resolution 1267 which targets JD makes no mention of detaining its leaders or members but only imposes a travel ban, arms embargo and the freezing of assets. This creates the perception that the charges were fabricated after the arrest. The stand taken in the court by the Deputy Attorney General was equally flimsy. According to him, the government is not bound to convey the reasons for his arrest to a detenu. Supposing this was permissible, which it is not by any standard of justice, why did the prosecution fail to bring before the court what it considered the real reasons, if any, for the arrest?

2. Rehabilitating the IDPs.

THE exodus of displaced persons from Malakand Division to the rest of NWFP and other areas of Pakistan, the provision of the daily necessities of life to them at the camps set up to temporarily house them and their return to homes where they could pick up the threads of normal life once again - this basic reality that has issued from the acts of terrorism and the military action that followed, constitutes a crucial dimension of the battle to win the hearts and minds of the people concerned. Considering the huge number of nearly three million uprooted persons, it is no mean job. The government, the society as a whole and the international community, all of whom stand to benefit from the campaign's success, need to attend to this humanitarian catastrophe with single-mindedness. While one must make some allowance for initial lapses in handling the growing number of people who have lost all their belongings and even kith and kin, there should be no reasons now for complaints, which somehow keep coming before the media.
There is urgent need for the authorities to persuade the donor agencies to give a greater amount of aid than they have already committed in view of the demand, not only for the maintenance of these persons for the present, but also for the reconstruction of their towns and villages and businesses. The international community has, indeed, reacted positively with substantial funds, though in face of such a large number of the needy persons. The President has, therefore, made the right move by approaching Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman for more help. One hopes that, considering the strong ties of religion and brotherhood that Pakistan has with these Middle Eastern countries, they would make generous contributions. We must ensure that the assistance from the various sources is utilised in a manner that helps the IDPs the most. However, it is about time the real task of return and rehabilitation was earnestly taken in hand in areas that have been cleared of the insurgents. One would like to think that the government has already worked out a comprehensive plan to do so. Transporting the IDPs back, meeting their immediate needs of food and healthcare, rebuilding the basic infrastructure destroyed during the insurgency like roads, bridges and culverts, schools, healthcare centres, shops and commercial centres and homes - every aspect has to be taken care of. But the most important thing would be to keep the Army deployed in the region until the time the police becomes capable of taking care of the security of the people returning to their homes. At the same time, activating the vigilance committees comprising local people would be reassuring for the IDPs to restart their normal activities without any fear.

3. Friends' concern.

CHINESE President Hu Jintao has urged President Asif Zardari to take solid measures to root out militancy from the country. China believes that the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, an extremist outfit, is taking shelter in Pakistan's tribal areas and is creating trouble in the Chinese province of Sinkiang, located on the border with Pakistan along the northern areas.
Not only that. The worry expressed by Mr Hu that these militants pose a threat to the security of Chinese nationals employed in projects in Pakistan is not out of place, because so far several Chinese engineers have been killed in various terrorist attacks. Given the situation in eastern parts of China, particularly Sinkiang, the concern on the part of Beijing that the militancy in Pakistan is having a spillover effect into China does not seem to be baseless. China has been a sincere and consistent friend that has invariably helped Pakistan through the most difficult and trying circumstances, but it is a pity that we have been found wanting in our duties and obligations.
Concurrently, there is Iran that has also started to get concerned about the terrorist threat from our side. Though the blame for the Zahedan bomb blast has been laid on the US and Israel, a finger has been pointed towards Pakistan as well. Iran has as a result tightened its security along the border with Pakistan. However, in the larger context, because of the War on Terror factor, one cannot ignore the reality that Pakistan itself has been placed between a rock and a hard place. There are those who want to destabilize Pakistan amid allegations of foreign involvement in Balochistan, NWFP and the tribal areas. For instance, Prime Minister Gilani has gone public holding India responsible for sparking unrest in parts of Pakistan. The situation demands that foreign powers abstain from their nefarious activities for the common interest of peace and harmony.

shallowwater · #45 Friday, June 05, 2009

1. A refreshing address.

PRESIDENT Barack Hussain Obama's address to the Muslim world delivered from the podium of Cairo University on Thursday was refreshingly different, in thoughts, words and tone, from President Bush's often demeaning utterances. He reached out to Muslims, extending them a warm hand of cooperation and declared, "the US will never be at war with Islam". He maintained that Islam was part of America, acknowledged Muslims' contribution to the US society and underlined civilisation's debt to Islam. With the choice of expressions and references to the Quran and its golden principles that touched the right chord among the audience, his address was repeatedly interrupted with thunderous applause. But if he endorses the Quranic aphorism he quotes, that the murder of one innocent person is the murder of all mankind, he needs to explain the innocent civilians' deaths that the drone attacks were causing. Mr Obama rightly remarked, "no single speech" could remove the age-old cycle of suspicion between Muslims and the Western world. Rather, unless these sentiments were translated into comparable deeds, any number of speeches would turn out to be mere hot air. It is hoped that President Obama's Administration sincerely wages a war against negative stereotypes of Muslims that he decried, and the Muslim world responds in the same manner to serve as the starting point of tolerance and understanding he longed for. But to remove the wall of suspicion and latent hostility, the points of tension have to be addressed. According to Mr Obama, the tension has its roots in the following issues: violent extremism; Israel-Palestinian tangle; the fear of nuclear weapons; the need for tolerance; the urge for democracy; the rights of women; and economic development. He justified the attack on Afghanistan on the grounds of 9/11, but termed the invasion of Iraq as a war of choice, at the same time rightly acknowledging that military means were not the solution. It is good to hear him acknowledge Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology, but one wonders how he intends converting to a world free of nuclear weapons when the US itself keeps making its own ever more sophisticated and deadlier. Mr Obama gave sound counsel to both Israelis and Palestinians and assured the latter of an independent homeland and a life of dignity, while stressing the indissoluble US-Israeli bonds. Although he recalled the historical suffering of Jews, he failed to give the logic behind uprooting the Palestinians from their centuries-old homes to give way to the Jews to have a state of their own. The Palestinians, whose daily humiliation at the hands of Israelis he bemoaned, had certainly no role in causing them the pain! There is serious disconnect, as Mr Obama sees Palestinians resorting to violence but makes no mention of the terrorist acts, reminiscent of the Holocaust, the Israelis routinely commit.

2. Act with dignity.

PRESIDENT Asif Zardari set aside all acceptable norms of protocol to be around at the press conference jointly addressed by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and US Special Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke in Islamabad on Wednesday. Mr Holbrooke is visiting Pakistan on a 'special directive' of President Barack Obama to assess the damage caused by the ongoing military operation in Malakand Division and review measures being taken for the rehabilitation of the internally displaced persons.
It was good to hear him announce an increase of $200 million in aid for the IDPs following President Zardari's request for additional assistance. This will be subject to Congressional approval. Mr Holbrooke spoke on a broad range of issues, while reiterating his government's commitment to extend full cooperation to Islamabad in defeating militants and strengthening democracy in Pakistan. But some of his observations about domestic politics cannot go unnoticed. It was disturbing to find him disclosing that Mr Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif had already reached a consensus on the controversial 17th Amendment to balance powers between the President and the Prime Minister. There is no denying that democracy cannot take root without doing away with the draconian amendments made to the constitution by General Musharraf to perpetuate him in power. But it would have been better had the announcement of scrapping the 17th Amendment been made either by President Zardari or Mian Nawaz rather than by a foreign envoy. This would only strengthen the perception that the ruling leadership is acting on US diktat not only on the issues related to the fight against extremism, but also on other important national matters. The Obama Administration needs to understand that it has nothing to do with the internal affairs of a sovereign state that had suffered enough during the past nine years of military dictatorship for its capitulation to the US instead of exercising independence in framing its policies. Perhaps what is required is courage by our own leadership to tell foreign powers not to cross a certain limit.
It bears repeating that if the United States is helping us by providing helicopters or night vision goggles for our troops, it is also in its own interest. Pakistan doubtless needs assistance to keep fighting this war, but for that our leadership should not compromise its dignity.

3. Kidnapped students.

THE mystery around the kidnapped students of Razmak Cadet College continues to deepen. Media reports on Monday, based on information gathered from available sources, varied as much as from 20 to 500 students having been forcibly taken away. No word came from the college administration meanwhile regarding the exact number of students, teachers and their family members who were abruptly told that the college had been closed, bundled into waiting minibuses and sent to Bannu without proper security. This was the height of neglect, considering the ongoing offensive against the Taliban who have carried out attacks in a number of districts around. What is more, their highly active chief Baitullah Mehsud has headquarters in the neighbouring South Waziristan. The confusion has been worst confounded by conflicting reports about the exact number of the missing students, indicating a total lack of coordination between various government agencies. Soon after the incident the college Vice Principal said only 26 students and six teachers had gone missing. On Tuesday, the ISPR said 80 had been released while 15 were missing, while Brig Zahid Abdullah who led the rescue operation told reporters the same day that 124 cadets and eight teachers had been rescued. Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira has given the figure of 47 students and five teachers still unaccounted for. Coming as it does from the federal government, the information would be considered more reliable.
There are indications that the 50-odd students are in the custody of the Taliban and have presumably been shifted to an area in South Waziristan under Baitullah Mehsud's control. The helpless parents of the students have been driven from pillar to post to learn the whereabouts of their children. The kidnapping of children for political purposes is a highly callous act and is liable to be widely condemned. The Taliban would further turn public opinion against them if they failed to release the cadets urgently.
Meanwhile, one expects the government to launch a well-coordinated attempt to recover the cadets and their teachers. All conventional methods should be employed to get them released. A clear-cut message should be conveyed to the top Taliban leadership that any harm done to the students or their teachers would lead to the worst possible reprisals.

shallowwater · #46 Saturday, June 06, 2009

1. State of the economy.

THE third quarterly report of the State Bank of Pakistan on the state of the economy indicates a bumpy road ahead and should serve as a warning against complacency. Despite a number of positive developments, the message delivered is that the economy is still not out of the woods and faces a number of vulnerabilities.
The country has reaped bumper wheat and rice harvests and there is a likelihood of good production in the minor crops also, thanks to good weather and, in the case of wheat, timely announcement of the new support price. It is heartening to note that the headline inflation, measured by CPI, dropped to 17.2 percent on Year on Year basis in April 2009 from its peak of 25.3 percent YoY in August 2008. What is real good news is that there has been a sharp downturn in food inflation, which fell from its YoY peak of 34.1 percent in August 2008 to 17.0 percent in August 2009. This would provide a modicum of solace to low-income groups. It is also good to learn that current account deficit narrowed substantially with a corresponding stability in the exchange rate. Further, fiscal discipline was maintained leading to hopes that GDP growth would narrow to 4.0 to 4.5 percent this financial year from 7.4 percent last year, though the report notes that the target might be tough to meet. There are however numerous deficiencies that need to be overcome if the growth rate, lowered to between 2.0 and 3.0 percent from the previous estimate of 2.5-3.5 pc, is to be met. Three major indicators point to underlying weaknesses which, if not addressed, could hamper economic recovery. These include a stubbornly high inflation, a massive deterioration in the external account and a declining industrial output, especially in the Large Scale Manufacturing sector which has suffered an output fall of 7.7 percent over the last nine months. Besides the internal vulnerabilities, there are other possible shocks that the economy would find hard to bear. Foremost among these is any big rise in the price of oil, an issue that continues to worry even the US and was taken up by President Obama with Saudi King Abdullah early this week. The State Bank rightly underlines that any reduction in the social sector development would be detrimental to human and physical infrastructure. The NEC on Thursday approved the highest ever Rs 621 billion PSDP for 2009-10. What is worrisome is that the Chairman Planning Commission hopes to use foreign inflows of around $2 billion to further enhance the PDSP. Relying on promises of foreign assistance is like skating on thin ice. One hopes the government will not this time treat the PSDP as the first item to be axed in case of a revenue shortfall.

2. Corrupt bureaucracy.

THAT the bureaucracy tops the list of most corrupt institutions in Pakistan in a report recently released by Transparency International is a clear comment on the government's anti-corruption mechanism. The judiciary and the law enforcement agencies closely tail behind while political parties have been rated less corrupt compared to their counterparts in India.
The survey, conducted with more than 73,000 respondents drawn from 69 countries around the world, also found the poor to be disproportionately burdened by bribe demands. Forty percent of the Pakistani respondents felt that that the existing channels for making complaints against corruption in the government departments had become ineffective. Most of them polled said that either they themselves or their family members had to pay bribes at different levels in the bureaucratic set-up to have their genuine problems solved. Transparency International must also have covered the Punjab, where the bureaucracy, enjoying all powers otherwise supposed to be exercised by the Cabinet, has not been able to improve the public delivery system. The practice of holding open kutcheries by the administrative heads of all provincial departments has turned out to be counter-productive. The federal and provincial governments will have to purge the bureaucracy of the corrupt elements before moving on to deal with the menace in other institutions.
The TI report should serve as an eye-opener for those who keep basking in the glow of having established good governance and the rule of law. It bears repeating that both the mainstream parties were voted into power on the promise of compensating the masses for the excesses committed against them by the previous regime over the past nine years. There is a need for immediate overhaul of the anti-corruption apparatus, if those in authority want to avoid the consequences of an increasingly alienated and distrustful citizenry.

3. CM's ambivalence.

THE problem with populist politics is actually practicing it. Savouring public admiration over its principled stance of sacking its NA-55 MNA was all well and good, but the PML-N finds that the public now expects such public executions all the time. Case in point: the League's Prisons Minister in the Punjab. Chauhdry Abdul Ghafoor misbehaved with Customs officials at the Lahore Airport and whisked the luggage of his guest away without it being checked. If he now says he was not aware of the procedure he should not forget that ignorance of the law is no excuse. But there are several issues to be looked at here. First of all, whether all demands by the public to sack someone should be humoured? The public might perceive something that is not true at all. And would it be disrespectful to the constituency to summarily make a decision like this? Legislators are, after all, voted through a direct election. Secondly, where does one draw the line here? What offence warrants a dismissal or a resignation? Surely, an overspeeding ticket doesn't. But what tipping point does?
But the most important aspect here is not the two mentioned above. It is that of building parties as institutions. A three-member party tribunal ruled that the minister was, in fact, guilty. The ambivalence of the Chief Minister on the issue after this ruling is far from admirable. True, the ruling of the body is not legally binding but if the ruling could be rejected, why go for an investigation in the first place? If the party had issues with the investigation, it could have reconstituted the tribunal. Instead, the party leadership is saying, by implication, that it'll do whatever it wants.

4. Stop sermonising.

FOR a career diplomat, Richard Holbrooke's statement in an IDP camp was out of line. Asking where the OIC was at a time like this was rather cheeky. Even though the problem of militancy is homegrown and we have got to face up to the fact that this is our war, there is no denying the role of the US in our history that has led things to this level; we are where we are because of them. In the light of all this, the US should cut down on sermonising to us or any other third country, and come up with more aid and better suggestions on how to handle the IDPs. This is, in his very own words, one of the largest displacements of people in history. If diplomats from powerful countries like his could lay off the cheek and focus more on the aid and support, far more could be done to help out our displaced brethren. Speaking at a press conference later on, he asked all the journalists present to ask questions only about the IDPs. Perhaps he should heed his own advice and talk only about Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US, whose envoy he is to the other two.

shallowwater · #47 Sunday, June 07, 2009

1. Nawaz, Sindhi press.

On Friday Mian Nawaz Sharif had his first encounter with the major Sindhi print media. That those who called on him represented all important provincial newspapers indicated the interest evoked by the PML chief in Sindh. The questions raised encompassed a wide area and some of them must have been uncomfortable. On the whole he fielded them well.
The fact of Mian Nawaz drawing main support from Punjab has been widely debated in the Sindhi media. Attempts were made initially by a section of the nationalists to portray him as a leader who represented the interests of Punjab. During the first tenure of the PML-N, fears were expressed in Sindh that he might take measures perceived by many to be against Sindh's vital interest, the foremost being the construction of the Kalabagh Dam. The suspicions were allayed to an extent when Mian Nawaz instead worked out a consensus formula on water sharing in March 1991. His dismissal by first Ghulam Ishaq Khan and then in a military coup further weakened the stand of those who persisted in presenting him as a handmaiden of the Punjabi establishment. The age-old suspicions have however continued to lurk and political opponents have at times tried to capitalise on them to isolate the PML-N. A few months back when he was planning to visit Sindh, a propaganda campaign was launched that that PML-N workers had desecrated the place in Rawalpindi where Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. One of the journalists on Friday pointedly asked him why he had only targeted Sindhis like Mr Asif Ali Zardari and retired judges, Sajjad Ali Shah and Abdul Hamid Dogar. There were also questions about his stand on the Kalabagh Dam and the role of the security agencies. Mian Nawaz made it clear that while he was a Punjabi he did not stand for parochialism but considered himself a Pakistani nationalist. Further, in order to assuage Sindhis' fears he went to the extent of assuring them that no big water reservoir would be constructed without prior consensus among the provinces despite the dire need to go ahead with the project. He also said that while he entertained strong reservations about the government's failure to do away with the 17th amendment and implement the CoD, he had no personal grudge against President Zardari. What is more, while opting to remain out of the federal government, he continued to support it as no single party could deal with the momentous challenges being currently faced by the country. He also maintained that if the agencies did not stop the games they have been playing the country might break up. Mian Nawaz was less than candid when he denied that he wanted to accumulate all powers in his hands as Amir-ul-Momineen through a constitutional amendment. National leaders should have the courage to own their blunders if they are not to repeat them. What is more, they must frequently visit other provinces to have a firsthand knowledge of the people's problems instead of remaining confined to their hometown.

2. Strange logic.

Holding out the assurance that the US would respect Pakistan's sovereignty and its troops would not cross the "red line" to enter its territory but, at the same time, continuing with drone attacks on the tribal areas is strange logic. And if Pakistani leaders' public stance about these raids were to be taken on its face value it sounds equally strange that none of the top functionaries whom American Special Representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke met during his three-day visit to Islamabad raised the issue with him. When asked at a press conference at Islamabad on Friday that the US was not respecting Pakistanis' sentiments against these drones, Mr Holbrooke maintained that not a single Pakistani, official or member of the civil society, had mentioned the issue to him.
One would have expected that a strong case against these attacks was made out before him, pointing out that they were proving counterproductive to the efforts Islamabad was making to defeat militancy. When Pakistan's armed forces were actively engaged in driving out the militant forces, there remained little justification, if at all there ever was, for the US pilotless planes to launch missiles on targets located on its soil. Besides, even according to the Western media, casualties consisted largely of the local population. So far these attacks have resulted in the deaths of a dozen-odd Al-Qaeda operatives. Against this small number, the drones have killed hundreds of innocent civilians, obviously creating a backlash not only against the US but also Pakistan. Not taking up this serious issue with Mr Holbrooke tends to confirm the perception that the ruling leadership is complicit in the violation of the country territorial sovereignty. It needs to put the correct picture before the public and explain the reasons why this extraordinary permission had been granted. Washington should have been clearly told to share intelligence with Islamabad and leave the rest with its security forces. About the widespread concern that the expected surge of American troops in Afghanistan would compel the militants to enter into Pakistan, he assured that operations would be coordinated with the Pakistan security forces to enable them to take appropriate measures. Only time will tell whether it works out as envisaged. Mr Holbrooke appeared to be receptive to the call of Prime Minister Gilani that Pakistan's debt should be written off to face the twin challenges of militancy and economic slowdown. The government should approach the US government with a formal proposal.

3. Inexcusable.

A powerful blast inside a mosque in Haygai Sharqi in Upper Dir has left 42 worshippers including 12 children dead. The bomber was identified and forced to stop soon after he sneaked into the mosque. That however, did not prevent him from blowing himself up. The death toll could have been much higher, had the bomber succeeded in making it to the middle of the crowd of over 400 people.
The area is thought to be the one of the strongholds of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Consequently, the people there had formed a Lashkar and set up various checkpoints to prevent the Taliban from moving into this area. The attack appears to be an attempt by militants to teach the locals a lesson. But how could one justify an attack on a mosque, the house of God? This would lead one to the conclusion that those who have been waging an armed movement in Swat and elsewhere ostensibly for the imposition of Shariat have a hidden agenda. They are least interested in Islam. The ANP leadership got it right in saying that those who carried out the attack are neither Muslims nor human beings. Besides, this is not the first attack on a mosque and proves the extreme mindset of the perpetrators. In March 2009, an attack in a Khyber agency mosque left a number of worshipers dead.
In the meanwhile, the whole nation should be on guard for these occurrences as long as the military operation reaches its logical end. Militants are on the run and their sanctuaries under fire but as the attack on the ISI headquarters in Lahore and now in Dir, shows, the terrorists will retaliate wherever they can. Likewise there are reports indicating that the explosives laden vehicles have been making it to major cities. In such a scenario, our law enforcement agencies and the security establishment would have to make greater effort to ensure that the enemies of the state do not succeed in their nefarious designs.

shallowwater · #48 Monday, June 08, 2009

1. Get your act together.

PRIME Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani could not get it more right when he said that drone attacks on our territory created sympathies for those challenging the writ of the state but he had to do a lot of explaining, during his interaction with the media after laying the foundation of Aiwan-i-Quaid-i-Azam on Saturday, to deny Richard Holbrooke's observation that no Pakistani official had raised this issue with him. The disturbing disclosure came amidst deepening resentment against violations of our sovereignty. It was disconcerting to find the government keeping mum when either our leaders are visiting the US or American officials are here to tell us how to deal with the issue of militancy.
It was good to hear from the PM that France and the United States had offered civilian nuclear deal to Pakistan but the issue needed elaboration since the signals coming from both these countries are not too encouraging. So far there has been no confirmation from the Obama Administration in this regard. It has even been reluctant to positively respond to Pakistan's requests for providing it drone technology so that it could take proper action in case of credible intelligence. The PM's contention that the government tried to resolve the Swat crisis through talks but was compelled to launch a military offensive because of the violation of the peace accord cannot be disputed. But the government needs to focus on ensuring security to the IDPs after it is done with the massive resettlement issue. The Army's presence in the restive region till the revival of the civilian law enforcement apparatus would be reassuring for those returning to their homes after enduring hardships at the makeshift camps to restart normal life. Mr Gilani called upon the people that instead of getting disappointed over the current situation they should face the challenges confronting the country by following the teachings of Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah. It bears repeating that the responsibility of turning Pakistan into an Islamic, democratic welfare state as envisioned by our founding fathers rests with those in authority. Punjab Chief Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif while speaking at the ceremony held under the aegis of the Nazria-i-Pakistan Trust highlighted the need for building institutions to promote the thoughts of the Quaid and Allama Iqbal. There is no denying that the turmoil the country is facing today can only be overcome by adhering to the principles of unity, faith and disciple as propounded by the Quaid. But for that, our rulers have to get their act together.

2. Lawyers' behaviour.

THE controversy over the Gondal presidency of the Lahore High Court Bar Association took a violent turn on Friday. The controversy hinges on whether the LHCBA Vice President, in this case Munawwar Iqbal Gondal, should succeed to the presidency if that office was vacated. In this case, the vacation was happy, upon the President being elevated to the Bench, the most usual course of vacation, but the death or resignation of the President cannot be ruled out. Was the Vice President supposed to take over for the rest of the tenure (a matter of months, since the tenure is a year), as Mr Gondal and his supporters maintain, or was there supposed to be a special election? This has been claimed by the Professional Group led by Mr Hamid Khan, who played such a noteworthy role during the recent lawyers' movement.
The lawyers' movement has been invoked by Mr Gondal's opponents, who claimed that he would recognize the PCO judges, and the Friday move, to seal off the LHCBA Committee Room, and throw Mr Gondal out of it, was a step in that connection. This display of strong-arm tactics took place after the LHCBA House had passed a resolution confirming Mr Gondal as President, and declaring that there was no need for the special election in which Justice (retd) Nasira Iqbal was elected. Mr Gondal and his supporters reversed this by following the same violent procedure.
The lawyers' movement was successful because society as a whole saw lawyers as a civilized section of itself, but if such behaviour is ever repeated, a learned profession will gain a reputation for violence and being undignified. Those heads of the profession whose conduct so impressed people as a whole should work to bring sense to the lawyers of the LHC Bar. The preceding violence alone vitiates the election, which Mr Gondal has referred to the Punjab Bar Council, which will hopefully decide the matter on the basis of the law and the relevant rules, not the muscle power to which the LHC Bar's lawyers unfortunately appear to have descended.

3. Another source of tension.

FOREIGN Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's warning that the water dispute between India and Pakistan could create tensions is an understatement of the gloomy prospects of bilateral relations in case India continues with its present policy of building storage reservoirs in the upper reaches of rivers the Indus Waters Treaty has allocated to Pakistan for its exclusive use. Apart from the Baglihar dam that New Delhi has built in disregard of Islamabad's protests, there are a large number of similar projects, which are either under execution or on the drawing board. Pakistan's economy is primarily based on agriculture, and the cutting off or reduction of water that constitutes an essential input of its health could result in ruining it. Such a situation would generate tension that could threaten peace of the Subcontinent.
In this context, it is pertinent to note the general perception among experts in the world that the fast depletion of fresh water sources would prove to be the cause of future wars between states, which are meeting their demands from a common source. Without losing time, Islamabad should step up efforts to resolve the issue that has already become a continuing source of tension. Apart from engaging India in talks to settle it, we should approach influential friendly countries to pressurise it to abide by its obligations under the Indus Waters Treaty.

4. Signs of TNSM-TTP rift.

AS NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain unequivocally rejects the speculation that the security forces have killed the two stalwarts of Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi - Maulana Muhammad Alam, a trusted aide of Maulana Sufi Muhammad, and spokesman Amir Izzat Khan - who were under their custody, the possibility of a rift between the TNSM and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan cannot be ruled out. And that might have led the TTP to blow up the vehicle carrying them to Peshawar. However, it is quite likely that the Taliban's real target was the security personnel with whom they are at war but the roadside bomb went off and hit the 'wrong' vehicle. According to an agency report, the Minister also observed that spokesman Izzat Khan had personally told him that he and TNSM chief Sufi Muhammad had been receiving threats to their lives from the TTP. There were indications of differences between the two sides soon after the Swat peace accord was signed. One was not be surprised at that development since the TNSM was not known to be pursuing militant means to have its demand about the enforcement of Shariah met, while the TTP had an aggressive and much wider agenda. It is expected that the authorities would make use of this difference of opinion to isolate the TTP from the general run of local people who are against violent means, thus paving the way for peaceful conditions to prevail.

shallowwater · #49 Tuesday, June 09, 2009

1. Karachi killings.

WHILE the armed forces are fighting in Swat and tribal areas to crush extremism, violence is on the rise in Karachi, threatening to disrupt economic activity and everyday life in the country's largest city. Incidents of target killing, mostly politically motivated, have suddenly multiplied. On Sunday, 17 persons were gunned down in incidents of the sort. The present wave, which began a week ago, has so far resulted in the killing of 30 people. According to the Karachi police chief, majority of those targeted belong to MQM Haqiqi. These include a member of the lawyers' panel fighting the case of the group's leader Amir Khan, who has recently been cleared by courts in some of the cases registered against him. There is a perception that the attacks are meant to demoralize the group which expects the release of its leader soon. Four members of the MQM, two of PPP and one each of the PPP and the ANP have also lost their lives. In one case, a person had been kidnapped and tortured before being killed. Allegations and counter-allegations have been levelled by the rival factions of the MQM against each other. The Jamaat Islami, which took out a protest march last week in the city against the killing of an activist, pointed a finger at the MQM. It is ironic that political parties in Karachi should be blaming each other for the type of atrocities that they condemn when committed in the tribal areas. The incidents have spread panic in the areas where they took place. Karachi has already suffered a lot on account of the violent clashes that took place in the city between the activists of the MQM and the ANP, leading to transport closure and losses to industry. That the graph of the ongoing killings continues to rise should alarm the administration. Karachi is the industrial hub of the country and any widespread disturbance in the city can adversely affect the economy. Before the target killings become a free-for-all affair, leading to the stoppage of transport and closure of businesses, strict measures need to be taken to improve the law and order situation. Expressing concern over the brutal killings, President Zardari has called for an enquiry. While this is fine, what is needed most of all is a determination among the ruling coalition to rise above party affiliations and maintain peace at all costs. When the PPP, MQM, and ANP joined hands to form the government in Sindh, many had hoped that, having a stake in the system, all three would work concertedly to improve law and order in the province. The leadership of the coalition not only failed to promote peaceful relations with the opposition, but has also fallen short of controlling the animosity among their own activists, leading to mutual accusations of target killings.

2. US foot-dragging.

THE fact that Indian leadership was rattled by President Obama's initial comment that the US should help resolve the Kashmir dispute has apparently resulted in his Administration dragging its feet on the issue that remains the core issue in the relations between the two South Asian neighbours. Bruce Riedel, who co-chaired the inter-agency committee which formulated the Af-Pak Policy, was quoted by a news agency as saying on Sunday: "I don't think that the Obama Administration intends to meddle in Kashmir."
Mr Riedel meanwhile insisted that it was in the interest of the US to see tensions between India and Pakistan diminished and see a resumption of the composite dialogue that had produced some significant results between 2006 and May 2008. One wonders how he expects this to happen when India is neither positively responding to the CBMs Pakistan has been offering it unilaterally, nor accepting any timeframe for the resolution of the core dispute of Kashmir. There is no point in telling Islamabad to take the "first step" to bring to justice the Mumbai attack masterminds when New Delhi is reluctant to furnish it the required information. It has now become clear that the Congress leadership had blown this issue out of proportions just to improve its electoral ratings. But, unfortunately, there has not been any change in its approach which became clear from Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna's intense finger-pointing at Pakistan following the release of Hafiz Saeed.
Why did Mr Riedel feel the need to allay apprehensions in 'some quarters' in India that US Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke's mandate might also include Kashmir? It was a clear signal that Washington would not do anything that might irk New Delhi. But then the Obama Administration cannot escape the blame for being partisan when it continues to ignore the worst repression unleashed by India in the Held State.

3. Deceptive moves.

FORMER President Musharraf's charge that India is fuelling the insurgencies in Swat and Balochistan coincides with the views expressed some top government functionaries and merits serious consideration. Experience has shown that New Delhi does not refrain from fishing in our troubled waters. General Musharraf also maintained that he was aware that RAW was at the back of them and that BLA leader Brahamdagh Bugti was presently in Kabul and receiving arms and money for his network inside Balochistan from RAW, which was acting in collusion with the Afghan government.
It is not the first time that a finger has been pointed at India and that leaders with first-hand knowledge have publicly held it accountable for sparking unrest in Pakistan. Some time back, Interior Minister Rehman Malik claimed that New Delhi was backing militants to destabilize Pakistan. But somehow the matter fizzled out as there is no indication that any international pressure is being built on India to desist from its nefarious designs. The leadership should have put the evidence before the world. India has on purpose been crying foul, accusing Pakistan every time some act of terrorism happens there. Suffice it to say, it has left no stone unturned in presenting the country as a terrorist state. Under the circumstances, we should not sit back and let India go on with its ways.

4. Water crisis.

PAKISTAN's Water Commissioner has remarked that the Indo-Pakistan dispute about the Kishanganga project cannot be resolved through the Indus Water Commission. He has indeed hit the nail on the head, because for quite some time, talks between the respective water commissions had been going on but without any positive results. New Delhi had turned the commission into a debating club, turning a deaf ear to the concerns of the Pakistani side. Last year, India simply cut off waters flowing into Pakistan and stored them into the controversial Baglihar dam in Indian-held Kashmir. For such disputed issues Islamabad should go to the World Bank for arbitration. It is a great pity that while India has been systematically trying to deprive us of our legitimate share of water, we have remained entangled with one another over the issue of building Kalabagh dam because of purely shortsighted, parochial considerations. The project holds great promise not only in accelerating agricultural development, but also in relieving the crippling power shortage the country faces today. Since its feasibility report has been readied, there has been no point in delaying its construction.

shallowwater · #50 Wednesday, June 10, 2009

1. Safe return of IDPs.

THERE could be no second opinion about the direction given by COAS Gen Ashfaq Kayani to the General Officer Commanding with the troops at Mingora that he should focus on the return of displaced persons in peace and security and prepare a post-operation contingency plan in this regard. General Kayani was on a visit to Mingora with Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleyman. Indeed, making a sound, workable strategy for their safe return and rehabilitation ought to be the government's top priority. That would secure the best possible results from the fight against militancy, give confidence to the people to start their lives afresh, to reopen their shops and businesses and send their children to schools and colleges without the fear of disruption by militant elements.
Calls of repatriation made without ensuring that a particular troubled area has been fully cleared of the insurgents, and that there was no likelihood of their return, would prove counterproductive. They might result in uprooting the people for the second time. If that were to happen, it would make it doubly difficult for the authorities to convince the IDPs to go back to their homes at a later stage when the danger had really passed. A case in point is Buner. There have been several announcements holding out the assurance to the IDPs that the terrorists have been hounded out and that they should go back and resettle. However, Monday's events - the blowing up of bridges, a school and a college - showed that the Taliban fighters had not been entirely pushed out of Buner. They were either present in certain pockets or hiding in the garb of ordinary citizens. Thus, although the troops have made gains in the area it was not safe enough for peaceful residents to live. Besides the safety of the area, it is imperative that it should be made habitable once again. With the basic infrastructure shattered, it is too much to expect the daily routine of life to resume. The Air Chief announced the setting up of a water filtration plant at Mingora. Similarly, the civilian administration should immediately take up the reconstruction work. Area-wise committees having local representation should be formed to assess the requirements of rehabilitation, in terms of rebuilding and repairing houses, shops, streets, bridges, culverts and other infrastructure. There is need to restart water and power supply where it has been interrupted and reconstruct educational institutions where they have been blown up or damaged. Although life in those areas is much simpler, the provision of basic amenities is of urgent importance.

2. Economic turbulence.

BUDGETS are never easy to balance. And this year is no exception. In fact, as budgets go, the government's chief financial mandarin, Shaukat Tarin, faces one of the toughest balancing acts in recent years. Managing the exchequer at a time of recession, limited fiscal space and civil war is going to be tougher than anything any bank job could have thrown his way. Of the three problems mentioned above, civil war seems to be the harshest. And in human terms, it is. But as far as the economy goes, we aren't quite a "war economy" yet. This is not to imply, however, that there aren't going to be large financial costs of the operation in the Malakand Division. The IDPs are going to require a substantial bit of aid, not just immediately, but also when it comes to resettle them back in their homes. This is to be followed by the process of reconstruction. Rectifying the high infrastructural damage that usually occurs after our armed forces' rather unique style of combat is going to cost a packet as well. All of that is going to require a lot of money. Then there is the military's pound of flesh, usually the unkindest cut of all.
The problems of limited fiscal space, specially at a time of global financial recession and rising fuel costs, is going to be a real challenge. All this in the face of a lot of expectations. The public is in for some disappointments. Electricity bills are going to rise, what with the subsidies set to go. Then there is the expected carbon duty on a variety of fuel types. This is going to generate a substantial bit of revenue. It might lead to a measure of inflation but it is, after all, a tax on the rich. On the other hand, the Advisor disclosed that he is going to adjust government salaries and pensions to the inflation rate. If the government actually generates more revenues by reforming the FBR, it could go for more crowd pleasers of the sort. But newer taxes are going to cause their own measure of resentment. This balancing act is a thankless job. However, intention to exempt agriculture and bourses from taxation shows how the government is hostage to vested interests despite severe resource crunch.

3. The way out.

PRESIDENT Asif Ali Zardari's assertion that it is indispensable to the development of good neighbourly ties with India that a resolution of the Kashmir issue is found, should be seen in the backdrop of the growing tensions between the two nuclear-armed states in the Subcontinent. There could be no peace until India ends its occupation of the Valley. The President has done well by urging the international community to play its role in this regard. It is a pity that it has so far been found wanting in this obligation. It is moreover a sad commentary on the commitment of the major powers of the world in their obligation of preventing India from its illegal occupation of the Valley.
The future of peace in South Asia, by and large, depends on the Kashmir issue. Given the turbulent times the region happens to be passing through, it is high time a solution was reached. New Delhi's claims of being the world's biggest democracy run counter to its subjugation and suppression of the Kashmiris, which makes it an imperialist power. Pakistan wants a solution of the conflict that is in line with the United Nations Security Council resolutions but New Delhi has all along been trying its best to stymie such efforts, denying the Kashmiri people their right to self-determination. President Zardari is right when he says that the resolution to the conflict is a must. To all intents and purposes, an amicable solution to the crisis is something that would prove central to the establishment of peace. The world community on its part must come forward in fulfilling the aspirations of the Kashmiris.

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