The polio challenge

All eyes are on events in Islamabad, and many political and other leaders have weighed in with their opinion on what shape the future should take. They seem, however, to have forgotten one crucial thing: the possibility of any future at all depends on the population being healthy and able. And it is precisely here where Pakistan is heedlessly, and despite all warnings from several quarters, barrelling down a path that will surely lead to disaster. We refer, of course, to the spectre of polio that not only is not being brought under control, but whose incidence is increasing rapidly. In the eight months that have elapsed so far this year, 117 new polio cases have been reported across the country, giving Pakistan the damning distinction of being the country worst hit by the crippling virus.

Most of these cases were reported from Fata and KP, where the public mindset and issues of both accessibility and potential violence have made matters very difficult for the vaccinators. But polio has also reared its head in Punjab and Balochistan, which until last year were considered free of the virus, and Karachi alone accounts for 10 of the total number of cases. On Thursday, officials in Islamabad sought answers from provincial governments as to why there was such a persistent increase, pointing out that over two months had elapsed since the World Health Organisation recommended sanctions against unvaccinated travellers leaving the country. The answers — if any are forthcoming — will be unpalatable. Despite the escalating risk, Pakistan is simply failing to keep up with the polio challenge. Nowhere are we seeing the sort of push that is needed, such as a sustained campaign to change the mindset of naysayers, a watchful eye being kept on people flooding out of the troubled northwest and the strict enforcement of travel requirements.

True, hundreds of thousands of doses have been administered, but that has clearly not been enough. What will it take for our health administrators to wake up?

Extent of the problem

This has to be one of the longest stand-offs in the history of the capital and as reactions go, its impact has been felt far and wide. The Supreme Court has taken note of the difficulties faced by commuters, and in other evidence of how greatly life has been disturbed, on Friday there was news of a further extension of the summer holidays for schools in Islamabad until Aug 31. These reports point to the seriousness of the situation today as well as to the fear that the problem will persist. It is a tricky task indeed to find a balance between the rights of the protesters and those of others, including the latter’s right to free movement, and to ensure that these are not infringed upon. Good sense must prevail even for rules to be effective but so far this quality appears to be in short supply. Whereas it is reassuring that both the government and the protesters have been staying away from violence in their confrontation, the capital’s predicament, which has repercussions all over the country and beyond, has to be one of the most damning examples of our inability to overcome troubles rationally and without wasting precious time and sullying our reputation.

The stand-off is affecting the country’s engagements with the outside world as well. A few days ago, the finance minister said that the IMF had cancelled its visit to the country due to security concerns. The presidents of the Maldives and Sri Lanka, too, have put off their visits because of the prevailing turmoil. This was the second time in the space of a few months that the Maldivian leader decided not to risk coming to Pakistan. He was earlier scheduled to arrive in June, but the tour was aborted after the militant attack on Karachi airport. If this were not enough, perhaps even more significant is the ‘cancellation’ of the visit by the Sri Lankan president, who has time and again showed himself keen to develop a relationship with Pakistan. The Chinese president, too, was slated to visit either in late August or early September but doubts have been raised about whether he will come. Should the crisis not dissipate soon and should he decide to give Pakistan a miss for the time being, it will be a real blow to the country given the nature and scale of the cooperation between Pakistan and China at the moment.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

It veers from high politics to low farce seemingly from hour to hour. Depending on the time of the day or the latest micro-move by either side, the impasse between the federal government and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf seems to deepen, move towards resolution or maintaining status quo. While simultaneously signalling that it could in fact still go the settlement route, the PTI formally initiated the process of its MNAs quitting parliament. Meanwhile, the government distanced itself from its default container strategy – the use of shipping containers to impede the arrival of protesters at the protest site outside parliament now. The good news is that, yet again, the door to a negotiated settlement has opened. The bad news is that it could quickly shut again, prolonging an already lengthy crisis. At this point, given the flip-flops, feints, brinkmanship and opportunism on both sides, there is little that can be said with certainty. The PTI in particular has taken mercurialness to another, altogether unprecedented level.

If that were not problematic enough, the government seems devoid of any initiative or breakthrough ideas. The prime minister seems strangely content to lead via committee and to rely on the same small set of advisers who allowed matters to reach this stage to begin with. Both the PTI and PML-N need a more dynamic leadership at the very top, at least that much is clear. Yet, that is hardly likely to materialise in the present circumstances. In every crisis, though, lies an opportunity for individuals to step up and provide the missing piece in the leadership puzzle. The PTI, given its more freewheeling approach to politics, can still mint a hero or two by squaring the differences between the absolutists and the pragmatists in the party. Coming back into the mainstream political fold by taking back the parliamentary resignations, while returning the PTI’s focus on electoral reforms, would surely count as deserving of hero status for whoever in the PTI can convince the party hawks to soften their stance.

Outside the PTI too there are political forces, especially the significant parliamentary ones, who can surely up the intensity and speed of their involvement as interlocutors between the politically warring sides to broker a deal. Former president Asif Zardari, other PPP leaders, Jamaat-i-Islami leader Sirajul Haq and the leaders of some of the regional parties too can play a role in brokering a settlement. Whatever the details of a settlement – if there is to be one – it needs to remain with the constitutional and democratic scheme of things. At their worst, the PTI demands are not quite unconstitutional but are surely destabilising for democratic stability. The call for the prime minister’s resignation and fresh elections makes little sense given that it is only the PTI and Tahirul Qadri’s demand. Minus that, there is much that the government can offer and do.

Published in Dawn, August 23rd, 2014

Pakistanis in Bagram
The US military’s internment facility in Bagram, Afghanistan, much like the American prison camp in Guantanamo, Cuba, has become a symbol of one of the darker aspects of global counterterrorism efforts: there is torture, abuse and detention of suspects without recourse to due process.

While those accused of terrorism must be tried and punished if found guilty, this must be done in consonance with the law and international human rights standards. Sadly, in many instances this has not been the case. As reported, nine Pakistanis held in Bagram were repatriated on Thursday.

Justice Project Pakistan — a group which extends legal help to detainees — says, quoting the International Committee of the Red Cross, that the men were now in the custody of the Pakistani government. The Foreign Office has also confirmed the men’s arrival.

This is not the first batch of detainees to have arrived from Bagram; in May 10 individuals were repatriated while a number of men also returned last November. Though the men’s arrival is welcome, it throws up a number of disturbing questions about the conditions in which they were captured and detained, as well as the role governments — American, Afghan and Pakistani — may have played in their detention.

Rights activists say all the men who arrived on Thursday had been held without access to counsel, some being in captivity for as long as eight years. Considering the allegations of abuse that have swirled around Bagram, there are distinct possibilities the men were subjected to illegal punishments.

The problem is we do not know the exact details as none of the governments in question have been transparent regarding the men’s detention. Islamabad needs to say what charges the men were being held for; were they in Afghanistan to take part in militant activities, or were they simply living and working in Taliban-controlled regions of that country?

The Americans and Afghans also need to explain why the men were not tried in detention. We understand that local intelligence agencies will want to interrogate the men, but their families need to be informed and given access to them, while the individuals must also be granted access to counsel.

If no charges are framed they should be set free; if the situation is otherwise they must have fair trials. The government must also inform the public how many Pakistanis remain in Bagram while the US needs to shut down such gulags.

Published in Dawn, August 24th, 2014

__________________
i believe in Allah and he is the mere one who can help me...

The Media Noise
It may be a sign of progress considering that the last time a government was under prolonged siege in the country, criticism lacked the intensity and urgency of today.

In fact, the intense media coverage of the current political situation involving the two sit-ins in Islamabad has resulted in the observation that all that was required to thwart a revolution was to switch off the television channels.

There are also complaints by people — not the politicians concerned — of partisanship by the media, thus relegating sensationalism to the status of a far lesser evil in the current discourse. There are news anchors who are accused of instigation and provocation, while some anchors make no secret of their presence among the protesters — as protesters.

In the now-forgotten past, journalists would scoff when they were accused by anyone of pushing an agenda. Today, a journalist walking around without an agenda could invite suspicion about his or her motives.

No wonder then that those defending their right to stay in power speak of the protesters and the media covering the march in the same breath. The government has magnanimously ‘allowed’ the people to protest and the government, the ministers tell us proudly, has ‘allowed’ the media coverage of the protest.

However, it is the same government which says that times have changed, and that the old methods to create hype are now doomed. It is clear that, as everyone comes to terms with new realities, there are going to be some journalists who might try too hard out of concern that they would otherwise fail to read the situation and commit the ultimate journalistic ‘mistake’ of not predicting, and effecting, change.

This urge is far too strong for many of them to adhere to ethics. But what is truly perplexing is the inability of media personnel to be chastened when their forecasts have turned out to be wrong. Ultimately, journalistic fare is determined by substance, and there is a difference between being crisp and unbearably loud.

Published in Dawn, August 24th, 2014

__________________
i believe in Allah and he is the mere one who can help me...

Contours of a Middle Path
As Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri continue to play to the crowds and government spokespersons continue to posture before the media, the contours of a possible exit strategy from the national political impasse are starting to take shape.

In essence, squaring the difference between the PTI’s six-point charter of demands and the PML-N government’s refusal to countenance the demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif while still insisting on a high-powered judicial commission to investigate PTI claims of fraud in the May 2013 general election, a middle ground may be opening up.

This could see the judicial commission completing its task as quickly but in as wide-ranging a manner as possible and make the possibility of the prime minister’s resignation and even fresh elections contingent on the findings of the judicial commission.

What that would allow is for the protesters to leave their sit-in site outside parliament without their central demand being rejected altogether while it would put the allegations of electoral fraud in independent hands for investigation so that a final verdict on last year’s election is issued by someone other than the government.

If that sounds like a sensible climbdown for both sides, it is also heartening to note that potential interlocutors between the PML-N and PTI also swung into action yesterday.

Former president and still PPP supremo Asif Zardari’s day trip to Raiwind and Mansoora gave both the PML-N leadership an opportunity to elucidate the grounds for a negotiated settlement further and allowed the PPP and Jamaat-i-Islami leadership to consult on how to bridge the gap between the PTI and PML-N positions.

Whether the hectic, all-day diplomacy will produce quick results is difficult to know, but it was a good sign for democracy that mainstream electoral forces were demonstrating both their keenness to resolve the impasse and their commitment to the democratic project.

As much as the PTI would like to downplay the idea of a high-powered judicial commission investigating the charges of electoral fraud, it remains the single most sensible and democracy-enhancing of possibilities mooted so far.

Given a strong enough mandate and allowing all stakeholders to depose before it, a judicial commission would be able to both establish irregularities at the micro level as well as to suggest macro improvements to the democratic process.

Also, the government should publicly and firmly commit via parliament to a speedy electoral reforms process so that if constitutionally permissible snap polls are to be held, they would occur under a much improved system rather than one that allows defeated candidates to forever deny the authenticity of their defeat.

A clear set of proposals with specific timelines and divided into specific short-, medium- and long-term goals is a good way to prepare the country for the next round of elections. Surely, working on a stronger electoral system now can only strengthen the democratic system over time.

Published in Dawn, August 24th, 2014

__________________
i believe in Allah and he is the mere one who can help me...

WHEN is a resignation not quite a resignation? It seems when it is demanded by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf.

Determined to secure seemingly even a ‘non-resignation resignation’ to fulfil its original demand that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif step down, the PTI has mooted a most peculiar set of ideas: the prime minister should, according to the PTI, resign for a short duration while the judicial commission completes its work, and thereafter resume office if the commission’s findings do not warrant fresh elections. In the annals of global political history, it would be difficult to find an example that would match the PTI’s extremely bizarre proposal. For what, exactly, would Prime Minister Sharif’s temporary resignation achieve? Consider that the very elections that the PTI is disputing were held under a caretaker government. Clearly then, even within the PTI’s scheme of things, if the PML-N was allegedly able to rig an election when not in office, could it not affect the outcome of a judicial inquiry when the party has governments at both the centre and in the principally electorally disputed province of Punjab?

Or is the PTI arguing that it is Nawaz Sharif and he alone who is able and willing to distort elections and inquiries, and that with Mr Sharif temporarily on the side lines, the PML-N governments in the centre and in Punjab would miraculously become independent bodies that will discover the world the way the PTI sees it? Or does the PTI secretly hope that nominating a stop-gap prime minister would bring in a national government of sorts through the back door, giving the party a say in who the temporary leader should be? The latest PTI suggestion is as ludicrous and off-putting as several that have come before it. At this point, it is worth asking who is advising Imran Khan. Shah Mehmood Qureshi has taken a central role in the present crisis and has been both extremely visible and active. The former PPP foreign minister has forged a reputation of sorts of having political ambitions that perhaps do not quite match his political stature. Is Mr Khan listening to the wrong man? Or is that wrong man Mr Khan himself?

That Mr Khan could in fact be on a solo flight, with his PTI colleagues struggling to keep up, is a possibility that was further reinforced on Friday as Mr Khan suggested that his quest for a so-called new and improved Pakistan was in part tied to his desire to get married again. Allow that proposition to sink in for a moment. Thousands of people assembled outside parliament, a country held hostage to a political crisis, and Mr Khan has his mind on personal affairs and marriage, even if he attempted to qualify his remarks later. Is Imran Khan a serious politician a pop star or, sadly, just a pop-star politician?

Trading possibilities

IT remains to be seen what impact the cancellation of the foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan will have on that other large issue being discussed between the two countries: normalisation of trade ties. For the time being, it is clear that the ball is in Pakistan’s court and until a firm step is taken towards the grant of Non-Discriminatory Market Access status, meaningful progress will remain elusive. This past week, a conference held at the Lahore University of Management Sciences between academic and industry delegates from both sides saw the exchange of candid views on future directions in trade liberalisation. The discussions largely revolved around policy questions, but political realities that stand in the way of further progress were never far from the discussion — the culture of enmity that engulfs the public discourse on both sides as well as the implications of a new government headed by Mr Modi.

The cancellation of the secretary-level talks might provide a glimpse into how the new government in India intends to approach the larger question of trade liberalisation with Pakistan, but actions of this sort should not hold hostage Pakistan’s decision to grant NDMA status to India. All participants at the conference agreed that trade liberalisation between India and Pakistan is ultimately a political enterprise, and the single best path forward towards building constituencies for peace in both countries. There is weak ownership of the process amongst the business communities in India and Pakistan, and this needs to be rectified. In India, the reason for the comparative lack of interest is the paucity of the gains that India stands to reap from a trade opening with Pakistan.

For the business community in Pakistan, fears of competing with their larger and admittedly more savvy counterparts in India is the cause. But this is about more than just the fortunes of a few businessmen or the limited vision of the hawks. This is about unleashing the transformative powers of trade. Towards that end, it is necessary for Pakistan’s business and policy community to understand that moving the process along is in its own interest, and a key plank in the strategy to unlock Pakistan’s locational rents. Keeping the process moving forward in spite of setbacks in other areas is the best way to signal Pakistan’s seriousness of purpose, as well as providing a reciprocal gesture of support to those holding out an olive branch from the other side.

Police technology

THE volatility of Karachi’s law and order situation is well known, and serious enough to have necessitated a targeted Rangers-led operation that has been under way since last September. While this has faced criticism from some quarters with regard to some of the methods being used, there is no dispute that all legal means must be employed to bring crime under control. One of the answers the Sindh police have come up with is technology: in 2010, the police launched a video surveillance system which, at the cost of some Rs500m, saw the setting up of 1,000 cameras on the city’s roads at sensitive locations. Later, this project was expanded. And on Friday, it was reported that the Sindh police have put together a fleet of 100 mobile police vans that are equipped with surveillance cameras. If the move proves helpful in police operations, more vans will be similarly equipped.

On the face of it, this is a commendable manoeuvre, for there is no argument that law-enforcement agencies around the world have found that technology can in many ways make their jobs easier. Surveillance cameras act as the eyes and ears of the police, reducing the need for boots on the ground and freeing up manpower for more urgent activities. However, there is a catch, a serious one: video footage only helps if there is a system in place for cross-referencing the faces caught on camera with a larger database of citizens and suspected or known lawbreakers for the purposes of identification. This is where there is a disconnect in Karachi and elsewhere. As a result, there have been several instances, among them bank heists, where the criminals haven’t even bothered to cover their faces, knowing no doubt that even if caught on tape, the chances of them being identified will be minimal. Without a cross-referencing system in place, investing in the technology may not produce results. The situation is easily remedied, though, and it is time that this was done.

Published in Dawn, August 25th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Controversial allegations

IN the midst of many a political crisis, out of the woodwork come individuals looking for a turn in the spotlight or simply to whip up more controversy. Now it is the turn of Afzal Khan, a retired bureaucrat who was additional secretary in the Election Commission of Pakistan when the May 2013 general election was held. Allegedly in possession of sensational secrets that chime perfectly with the PTI’s allegations of massive electoral fraud in Punjab, Mr Khan’s choice of platform and the timing of his so-called revelations tell a story in and of themselves. First, the former ECP bureaucrat kept to himself his alleged knowledge of widespread fraud for 15 months. Next, the former ECP bureaucrat kept to himself his alleged knowledge of widespread electoral fraud even over the past two weeks, though the dispute has been all that has dominated the national political conversation.

Finally, he decided to share his alleged secrets on a controversial programme hosted by a media personality with specific political leanings. Why not a news conference to reveal such dramatic allegations? Assume that Afzal Khan’s choice of platform and timing is entirely coincidental and that it is the call of his conscience that he is finally responding to. Even then, there have already been serious questions raised about his credibility. The former member of the ECP Riaz Ahmed Kiani, against whom Mr Khan laid specific allegations, has publicly alleged that the former ECP additional secretary is in part motivated by the denial of an extension in service. In addition, observations have surfaced that Mr Khan himself defended the May 2013 election and the ECP’s supervisory role in many forums over the past year.

When claims such as Mr Khan’s are made, credibility is of great importance — at the moment, there are enough questions regarding Mr Khan’s motives, his political loyalties and the nature and quality of the evidence he has, if any, to not give his claims the kind of automatic sanctity that some sections of the media, and certainly the PTI, have been giving them. As ever, there remains open an authoritative and credible forum for Afzal Khan — indeed, anyone relevant at all to allegations of electoral fraud and rigging — to take his claims to: the judicial commission led by Supreme Court judges tasked by the government to investigate charges of alleged fraud and rigging in last year’s election. Unhappily, the distinction between fact and fiction has been blurred so much and the intersection between law and politics become so distorted that the mere airing of an allegation is now treated as valuable evidence. Mr Khan may or may not have any actual evidence that can stand up in a court of inquiry, but whether he does or not seems to matter little to those whose political aims do not quite jive with electoral reality.

Choosing enemies

IF there were any doubts that the self-styled Islamic State, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, has become a transnational terrorism threat, its rapid gobbling up of territory in Iraq and its latest ‘conquest’ — the Tabqa military airport in Syria’s Raqqah governorate — should put uncertainties to rest. Syrian activists say the militants recently took the military facility from government forces after a tough fight. After seizing the key Iraqi town of Mosul and large swathes of territory in that country as well as in Syria, the capture of the airport is another ‘feather’ in the IS cap. Yet if the militants are not countered, they will threaten the stability of regional states as well as the security of the West. But geopolitics seems to have trumped better sense; while the US and some European states have come to the aid of Iraq’s government and the autonomous Kurds in the north of that country in their battle to contain IS, the Syrian regime has received no such help.

In fact, Washington, as well as many European capitals along with most Arab states, has been more interested in engineering regime change in Damascus. However, in the ‘mission’ to ensure Bashar al-Assad’s defeat, a variety of dubious armed opposition groups — including some linked to Al Qaeda — have been supported, mainly because of Mr Assad’s tilt towards Iran and his alliance with Hezbollah. Yet this policy has proved disastrous. Today, the UN says over 191,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict while the extremists who were directly or indirectly supported have aided the rise of the Islamic State. America and its allies must decide who poses a bigger threat to regional peace: Mr Assad or IS? While foreign military intervention is unadvisable, regional countries as well as the West must change tack and cut off support to extremists in Syria — and Bashar al-Assad should be urged to reach a negotiated settlement with the moderate opposition.

Counter rallies

THE stand-off brought about by the dharnas in Islamabad brings Pakistan face to face with a situation without precedent in the country’s history. Political ‘experts’ can at best pretend that they know, and then they can pretend a little more when the situation demands a change in their position. One moment assurances are given that the past is not going to intervene, and the very next minute suspicions are raised about the protesters being led by unseen masters. For its part, the PML-N is clearly under pressure and perturbed, and the party and its allies are leaving nothing to chance. They are not content with statements that remind the protesters that a government brought to power by millions cannot be browbeaten into submission by a few thousand demonstrators on the road and by what many see as their unreasonable demands. They are not satisfied with the fact that while they have won the backing of so many political forces in the country and of international power-brokers, the protesters appear isolated. They are, apparently, not satisfied by the assurances of non-interference they themselves claim the military high command has given them.

Since this is unknown territory that everyone is trying to navigate, they feel they cannot avoid countering street power with street power. The political stakes are far too high to stop them from taking the risk of a rally of their own spiralling out of control and ending in violent confrontation with the followers of the PTI and Dr Tahirul Qadri’s PAT. The PML-N allies — veterans such as Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Mehmood Khan Achakzai — have been quite eager to confront the protests with people’s power. They could have alternately tried to bridge the differences as some other old-timers are doing. The men belonging to Ahl-i-Sunnat Wal Jamaat have also made an impact, by the side of the government. The PML-N itself has graduated from allegedly carrying out freak attacks in Gujranwala and Multan against their opponents to call for full-fledged shows of strength in various cities. These shows have been — are expected to be — strong, reconfirming the PML-N’s presence. They will ensure some television time. But what these rallies also do is they compound the impression of disorder, and could actually be aiding those seeking to disrupt proceedings here. After all the calculations have been made, the resort to street power by the government could well be taken as a sign of desperation.

Published in Dawn, August 26th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Dangerous trends

MUCH as Imran Khan, Tahirul Qadri and their respective protesters gathered in the heart of Islamabad would like to pretend otherwise, it is not just the PML-N government that is in the metaphorical firing line but the democratic system itself that is on trial. And, with the street protest against the government entering its third week, the pressure on the system has grown. Quite how much that pressure has grown in recent days was in evidence on Tuesday as the Prime Minister’s Office issued an extraordinary statement after a meeting between Nawaz Sharif and army chief Gen Raheel Sharif. In the press release issued by the Prime Minister Office, there is not just an explicit mention that matters of high politics were discussed between the highest-ranking civilian and the most powerful military leader on matters concerning politics but that, rather extraordinarily, the two men are in agreement that the political impasse should be resolved expeditiously. The benefit that Mr Sharif and the PML-N would have hoped to gain from such a statement is fairly obvious: the federal government is trying to show that the army leadership and the PML-N are still working together and in agreement on the way out of the crisis.

Essentially, the PML-N’s posturing is meant to signal to the protesters and their leaders that the military is on the government’s side, not the protesters’. In truth, however, the PML-N’s posturing only reveals its own uneasiness – and perhaps even uncertainty – about what may happen if push comes to shove. In truth, there are enough tensions on policy matters between the PML-N government and the military to leave a lingering question mark over whether the army leadership may prefer a different political dispensation in the country. In truth, there are no guarantees in politics. For the PML-N, the pressure is coming from many directions. The PTI has floated the idea of a so-called in-house change in parliament; the MQM has talked of a possible sacrifice being made; the PML-Q leadership has tried to sow fear by ominously reminding the political class of how political crises have led to military interventions in Thailand and Egypt; and even the ANP has talked of being committed to the democratic process but not necessarily the prime ministership of Mr Sharif.

Meanwhile, protesters continued to occupy Constitution Avenue yesterday despite the Supreme Court suggesting that they needed to move. Amidst all of this, Prime Minister Sharif has unhappily returned to his approach of being seen sometimes and heard rarely. Mr Sharif ought to speak to the public and put in perspective what this protracted crisis is about and the kind of pressures his government is under. In May 2013, Pakistanis in unprecedented numbers showed their preference for a democratic system. That same public could be Mr Sharif’s strongest ally — if he takes them into confidence.

Swiss talks

CONFUSION persists around the question of ‘ill-gotten gains’ of Pakistanis kept in Swiss bank accounts. This week negotiations will take place between Swiss and Pakistani tax authorities to amend the double taxation treaty. The Swiss envoy to Pakistan has reportedly said the talks are “just a technical meeting” to upgrade an existing treaty to avoid double taxation between the two countries. Meanwhile, in Pakistan an expectation has developed that the talks are a step towards creating the legal architecture necessary to enable the identification and retrieval of ‘ill-gotten gains’, a vague term that has come to describe tax-evaded money as well as money generated from illicit activity. In fact, the law makes a distinction between these two categories, and that distinction is important because only illicitly acquired funds can be restituted. For tax-evaded funds, information can be exchanged but that “does not mean Switzerland can help in tax collection”, the envoy is quoted as having said.

A needless haze of confusion surrounds the issue in Pakistan. The false and fabricated figure of $200bn of Pakistani money ‘stashed’ away in Swiss bank accounts continues to be bandied about, despite having been shown to be a myth. But beyond the amounts involved, confusion also surrounds the steps required to retrieve these funds in part because of mixed messages given by the government itself. In May, the finance minister told the National Assembly that the government intends to pursue illegal assets stashed away in Swiss bank accounts “by amending/renegotiating the existing Pak-Swiss Tax Treaty”. Many understood this statement to mean the current talks will be part of a larger effort to locate and retrieve ‘ill-gotten gains’. But the envoy’s words suggest the talks are only about updating the legal framework so information on tax-evaded wealth can be exchanged. In equal part, the confusion exists because corruption and the siphoning away of ‘ill-gotten gains’ is a politically sensitive issue in Pakistan, especially in the current environment, and even the coarsest of nuances are bulldozed over in the rush to judgement. Since those perpetuating the confusion draw on a statement made in the National Assembly on the finance minister’s behalf, perhaps Mr Dar should clear the air by saying what his best information is about the amounts stashed abroad, and by clarifying the steps his government is taking to locate and retrieve those funds.

Need for precaution

SHORTAGE of funds and lack of cohesion between the Karachi administration and the Sindh government has raised concerns about the effectiveness of dengue control efforts in the city. As reported in this paper, the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation has failed to carry out citywide fumigation to neutralise the mosquitoes that transmit dengue, while the administration has also failed to keep an eye on tyre shops. Such establishments are known breeding grounds of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, as is fresh water. The authorities cannot afford to be complacent as there were over 30 dengue-related deaths in Sindh last year, while over 6,000 people tested positive for the ailment, the vast majority of them in Karachi. Apart from the dengue threat, the metropolis has also witnessed at least eight deaths caused by Naegleria fowleri, more commonly known as the ‘brain-eating amoeba’, over the past three months. The dangerous amoeba, found in warm, fresh water, usually proves fatal if water containing it enters the nasal cavity.

What is needed from the provincial and civic authorities is a robust response to both of these public health threats. In the case of dengue, the methods successfully employed by the Punjab government can be replicated. After all, while a few dengue cases have been detected in Punjab this year, the number of dengue victims is nowhere near the levels of previous years, which saw a high number of fatalities. This is mainly because the Punjab administration has been carrying out a proactive vector-control campaign while doctors in the province are also now better trained to effectively treat dengue. The Sindh authorities need to launch an effective campaign against dengue now, before the threat balloons. Where Naegleria fowleri is concerned, the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board needs to ensure proper chlorination of water, as this can neutralise the threat. One figure suggests up to 40pc of Karachi’s water is not properly chlorinated. Equally important are awareness campaigns in the media advising citizens about precautions to take against dengue and the hazardous amoeba.

Published in Dawn, August 27th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

A laudable approach

IT makes eminent sense for Iran and Saudi Arabia to get together to probe each other’s mind regarding the situation in their neighbourhood, especially where the militant group, the so-called Islamic State, is concerned. On Tuesday, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met in Jeddah and discussed what an Iranian diplomat called “the challenges facing the region”, particularly in Iraq, and the “means to confront extremism and terrorism”. This was the first high-level meeting between Iran and the kingdom since the assumption of power by Iran’s relatively moderate president, Hassan Rouhani. Let’s note that Iraq has been in the grip of terrorism for a long time, but the two oil-rich powers never could get together because of the diametrically opposite nature of their foreign policies.

The IS militia’s ‘conquests’, however, seem to have made the two regional rivals reassess their relationship. Formed as an offshoot of Al Qaeda, the IS aroused universal condemnation because of its barbarism and was disowned even by that radical militant network. Its capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, clashes with Kurdistan authorities and the move into Syria as far as the Lebanese and Turkish borders have sent shock waves across the region. Its extremist agenda and massacres have transformed not only the Iraqi scene but also the situation in the Levant. In short, not only is the organisation’s barbarism widening already existing fissures in Middle Eastern societies, it is a dangerous threat to the integrity of the Iraqi state.

No wonder alarm bells have been ringing in Tehran and Riyadh, making the two powers develop a common strategy towards the group’s sectarian radicalism. Saudi Arabia is especially vulnerable, because the IS could find recruits there. Failure to adopt a common approach to the IS threat would only mean an intensification of America’s military involvement in the region. This will complicate matters, make heroes out of mass murderers and cause the region to sink deeper into the morass.

Model Town FIR

ON Wednesday, as the ‘final’ deadline set by the Pakistan Awami Tehreek chairman for meeting his demands expired, a group of lawyers approached a police station in Lahore for the registration of an FIR against the violent action at the PAT headquarters on June 17. The lawyers, who carried a high court order clearing the way for the registration of the report, were confronted with the same stalling tactics that had been employed to deny the PAT its demand thus far. This signified no progress in an affair that has led Dr Qadri to march on the capital to stage a prolonged sit-in. PAT’s call for an FIR was generally termed a fair one, even when some of its other demands have been dismissed as unreasonable by those who realise the importance of persisting with the system. There is agreement that a gross violation of the law was committed around the Qadri compound on June 17 and those responsible for the brute use of force should be held accountable. From the outset, it was believed that the Punjab government had landed itself in an extremely dangerous situation and it would struggle to come out of it without too much damage.

But as the government tried to delay the lodging of the FIR, one logical view was that it was also trying to delay the inevitable until it was firmly and finally compelled to strike a compromise. The thinking was that the FIR was enough of a concession to help defuse the situation, and the unavoidable risks it posed could be dealt with later. In the event, the delay emboldened the PAT marchers and added rigidity to their already strong agenda. The time gained by the government by stalling was the time spent in speculation. And while in recent days some excerpts from the two forums assigned to investigate the unfortunate occurrence have been leaked they do little to lift the mist surrounding the actual June incident. But whatever little has escaped the official grasp does seem to corroborate the first impressions about the FIR. They point to the urgent need for an impartial investigation by the police before a trial, involving the stiffest challenge faced by Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif in his entire career as a tough unyielding administrator, begins. Notwithstanding the final outcome, it is a lesson in how essential rules are and how they must be adhered to thoroughly.

Another trying day

BEFITTING a political impasse that ebbs and flows seemingly several times a day, yesterday began with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif finally addressing parliament and delivering a reasonably reassuring speech before Imran Khan took to the microphone outside parliament in the evening and rejected further negotiations with the government unless the prime minister resigned. This after five rounds of talks between the government and the PTI. Meanwhile, Tahirul Qadri, a marginal figure who nevertheless has the ability to create much trouble thanks to his zealous following, again tried to steal the limelight last night, after the expiry of yet another deadline. The first half of the day at least had some positives. Despite attending the extended session of parliament several times already, the prime minister had avoided a speech from the floor of the National Assembly until yesterday. Perhaps it was coincidental that Mr Sharif chose to address parliament the day after he had another significant meeting with army chief Gen Raheel Sharif — or perhaps it was not. Either way, the prime minister put on a confident display, suggesting that he and his small coterie of advisers were feeling less institutionally isolated than they may have felt several days ago.

While the prime minister did not directly address what he considers to be the real reasons for the present crisis or indeed directly make any mention of the present impasse, he rightly pointed out that the focus should be on the system and not on individuals. It is the democratic system, respecting the sanctity of the Constitution and an institutional shift towards the rule of law that will put Pakistan on the path to stability — not the personalisation of politics without any real sense of responsibility towards the system. There are surely political and governance shortcomings of Mr Sharif and the PML-N generally — and Mr Sharif acknowledged that in his comments in parliament yesterday — but without a system, there can be no institutional fixes. Just as the PPP paid a huge price for its governance failures, so will any other government — if the electorate is allowed to vote on schedule and without disruption. But that is precisely what Imran Khan seems determined to ensure does not happen. The resignation of Prime Minister Sharif would effectively mean the end of the government Pakistan elected just 15 months ago. There are clearly circumstances in which early elections, snap polls or an unscheduled return to the voting public could be a good idea — and may even be necessary. But these are not those circumstances. The question is really why should Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri have a veto over the affairs of the state and by whom it is governed? Now into the third week of their protests, Mr Khan and Mr Qadri are running on fumes — at least as far as rational discourse goes.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

No answers for the displaced

CITIZENS displaced by the military operation in North Waziristan are justifiably asking numerous questions about their fate. Yet neither the civilian leadership nor the military high command has any satisfactory answers for the IDPs. Tribal elders from the conflict zone addressed a news conference in Peshawar on Tuesday, in which they raised many of their key concerns. The tribal people have two main questions: when will they be able to return and will the state care for them until it is safe to do so? These are valid concerns. The tribesmen say they are willing to wait even for a relatively long period, but that they must be given a time frame. The North Waziristan residents have also highlighted the problems they have faced since fleeing their native areas, including insecurity and lack of proper shelter.

Perhaps the affected tribesmen are not wrong when they say that the response to the Swat IDPs’ crisis in 2009 was a lot more robust. For example, while the persons displaced by Operation Zarb-i-Azb have been given cash by the state, other arrangements have been found wanting. As the tribesmen look for answers, both the government and the military seemingly have bigger fish to fry. The IDPs’ plight is also a reminder of the general lack of attention the operation has been getting ever since the political crisis in Islamabad started brewing two weeks ago. When the operation began in June, ISPR, the military’s media wing, was very active in releasing frequent operational updates to the media. In fact, most of the information coming out of the conflict zone depends on the military, as the media does not have access. Yet for the past 15 days there has been mostly silence from the military. What is the status of the operation? Have all the areas been cleared of terrorists? When will it be safe for IDPs to go home? The security establishment has not given adequate answers to any of these queries.

Let us not forget that, due to the operation, hundreds of thousands of lives are on hold, with families living in limbo. While civilians cannot be allowed to enter an active combat zone, the tribal people must at least be told how long they will have to wait till they can return. The spectacle in Islamabad has managed to take the limelight away from the plight of the displaced. The state cannot afford to forget these unfortunate people in the midst of all the noise. The military and the government — busy as the latter is in trying to ensure its own survival — must also inform the nation of the status of Zarb-i-Azb. Not too long ago, we were told the operation was meant to wipe out an existential threat to Pakistan; today its details have been drowned out by loud calls of ‘revolution’.

Polio vaccination funds

AS if the job wasn’t difficult enough, Pakistan’s polio vaccination efforts are now suffering due to a shortage of funds. The Ministry of National Health Services has said that the countrywide polio vaccination and awareness programme will come to a halt if funds are not arranged within the next two months. Once the trained workforce of 2,000 communications specialists as well as polio workers disperse due to nonpayment of stipends and salaries, it will be very difficult to bring them back and restart the programme. Moreover, vaccination efforts at the Chaman border crossing appear to have suffered for a number of days now and officials of the health ministry claim that they are reduced to arranging funds from alternate sources as a stopgap measure. The funding difficulties have been attributed to the ongoing political crisis in Islamabad which has distracted the government from its day-to-day responsibilities. In this case, those responsibilities include convening a meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet, in which representatives of the provincial governments are present, to approve the PC I for the campaign, which will open the doors for funding from various donor organisations to flow in. An ECC meeting was held recently, but apparently representatives of the provincial governments were not present, reportedly due to the political crisis.

Having braved security challenges, the anti-polio campaign now has to brave bureaucratic hurdles and a political stand-off. A mixture of four different government bodies and committees had to sign off on the funding the NHS requires to run the campaign. First it was the Central Development Working Party which approved the PC I, but the Planning Division required approval from the Council of Common Interests. When this was also achieved, the ECC had to sign off. One grows weary simply reading all the names and acronyms that make up government red tape, only to learn at the end that approval could not be obtained because a political crisis prevented key members from attending the last meeting. Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation is preparing to review its decision to impose temporary travel restrictions on people travelling from Pakistan. That review is scheduled for November. What a pity it would be if the government is forced to tell the WHO to postpone its review because it has been unable to implement the required steps due to the political crisis in Islamabad.

A permanent truce?

IT may not exactly be the victory the Palestinians want to celebrate, but there is no doubt they have proved their mettle by taking on the Israeli behemoth and fighting back for no less than 50 days in a way that has impressed many. It was homemade missiles versus some of the world’s most sophisticated arms that Israel possesses. The Palestinians had to pay a heavy price for retaliating — over 2,000, a vast majority of them civilians, including children, dead, infrastructure destroyed, the economy crippled and the sick and wounded going without medicines. Even some of Israel’s most hawkish supporters refused to believe the state’s war machine was not deliberately hitting civilian targets, and that Hamas was using civilians as a shield when Israeli forces bombed two UN schools and two apartment buildings. ‘Israel has the right to defend itself’was a regrettable American cliché to justify what can only be called mass murder.

Described by Hamas authorities as “permanent”, and “unconditional and unlimited-in-time” by the Israelis, the ceasefire, brokered by Egypt, will no doubt provide immediate relief to the Palestinians, while the opening of crossings at the Israel-Gaza borders would enable relief agencies to move in. Israel has also agreed to restore the six-nautical-mile limit which it had arbitrarily reduced to three for Gazan fishermen. While the truce deserves to be welcomed, it doesn’t solve the real issue — Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied territories and the emergence of a Palestinian state. The US-led peace process is nothing short of farcical, and the Zionist state has no intention of giving up its theft of Palestinian land. Last month, speaking at the defence ministry, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear he would never countenance a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank. The Palestinians are not likely to accept this stance. Which means that they will not be deterred from efforts to win their own state, even if Israel continues to perpetrate atrocities on the Gazans every now and then.

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

Blow to democracy

EVENTS seemingly had degenerated into a dirge for democracy, but in a political crisis that is as confounding as it is severe, the events of Thursday night were quickly overtaken by developments on Friday. On Thursday, it had appeared that a political crisis in which certain institutional forces had long stayed on in the shadows had reached a predictable denouement with the army leadership once again taking centre stage — a move ostensibly authorised by the PML-N government under duress. But then yesterday an equally confounding — though perhaps not entirely unpredictable — blame game began between politicians, with the government and its political opponents both suggesting that it was the other camp that had dragged the military centre stage. Meanwhile, the army leadership happily lapped up the attention and focus, with statements attributed to the military leadership suggesting that it was only doing what had been asked of it by the political leadership of the country and was playing as neutral a role as possible. In the continuing flux that has become national politics in recent weeks, there are certain things that are already obvious. For one, the army has — whether because of serendipity or by design — already re-established for itself a position of political pre-eminence that the transition to democracy was supposed to have consigned to history.

Whatever the army leadership may claim through its selective statements, it is simply the case that it has once again assumed the role of referee, umpire or final arbiter over the political process by steadfastly refusing to choose sides — when one side clearly had the law and Constitution in its favour and the other side was agitating for the kind of politics and system that the country had collectively rejected in recent years. That so-called neutrality of the army leadership involved essentially saying that the democratic, parliamentary, legal and constitutional legitimacy of an elected government was at par with the rabble-rousing skills of Tahirul Qadri and near-demagoguery of Imran Khan. It should not have been this way — but the fact that events have come to such a pass indicate how against the democratic spirit and unwilling to accede to civilian control certain unelected, powerful institutions of the state are. Unhappily, there are many failings among the democrats too. Rewind to Thursday when the country had seemingly regressed several decades in its political evolution. To involve the army chief as mediator in a national political crisis was capitulation of the highest order — and for that the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will have to shoulder a significant burden of the blame. Consider that when the transition to democracy began with the February 2008 elections and gained momentum with the ouster of then-president Pervez Musharraf in August 2008, the country had embarked on the most tentative of journeys towards the democratic idyll.

Five years on, in May 2013, after several major crises, a corner had seemingly been turned — the country had its first ever peaceful, on-schedule, democratic transition of power between one elected government and the next. At that point, a heavy burden sat on the shoulders of Prime Minister Sharif: he was the chief custodian of the democratic process for the next five years. The problem was that Mr Sharif quickly and unprovoked made several choices that put great strain on the democratic transition — a strain that Mr Sharif then seemed incapable of dealing with or mitigating. The hastiness of Mr Sharif combined with his inability to stay in control of events helped bring events to the present pass. The alternative was not to do nothing at all. Surely though given a five-year old democratic transition and a five-year term ahead of him, Mr Sharif could have picked his priorities and battles differently. Even during the build-up to the present crisis, a prime minister who seemed content to lead from behind added to the perception of a threat to the system — and almost certainly gave the prime minister’s opponents and anti-government protesters hope. Now, yet again, the country is at a pass where confusion and clarity seemingly coexist. What is clear is that whatever democratic credentials Imran Khan and the PTI had and whatever credibility Tahirul Qadri and his supporters had have disappeared. To so gleefully accept the direct involvement of the army in a political crisis, as Mr Khan and Mr Qadri have, is to destroy the last vestiges of democratic legitimacy and institutional good sense. While the never-ending crisis appears to have some more time to run yet, because of the government’s inept handling of the affair the political domain will continue to feel the effects of the military’s role, whether as ‘facilitator’ or ‘arbiter’, for at least the foreseeable future.

Journalists’ murder

TWO more names have been added to the sombre roll call of journalists killed in the line of duty in Pakistan. On Thursday, Online news agency bureau chief Irshad Mastoi and reporter Abdul Rasool Khajak, along with their accountant Mohammad Younis, were murdered in an attack carried out by armed men in their Quetta office. More than 30 journalists have reportedly fallen victim to targeted killing in Balochistan over the last five years, making the province the most dangerous part of what is already, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, the fourth most dangerous country in the world for reporters. No one has even been put on trial, let alone convicted, for any journalist’s murder in Balochistan. Journalists in the province are forced to navigate multifaceted threats in a complex political environment, and survival depends on an almost impossible delicate balancing act. Intimidation is a constant, and can escalate any time into something far more deadly. Journalists are picked up and ‘disappeared’ before their mutilated bodies are found dumped along roadsides, while some — as in the latest case — are summarily shot and killed.

The pressure they have to contend with emanates from several quarters, each equally powerful in its own way. There are ruthless insurgent organisations, feuding tribes with shifting allegiances, rapidly proliferating extremist groups — many of them with overt sectarian agendas — who are allegedly being used by the state to counter the separatists, as well as the Frontier Corps, intelligence agencies and the military that make up the heavy security footprint in the province. Even political parties that champion press freedom elsewhere in the country bully the journalists’ community in Balochistan. Each sees the media as a conduit to further its agenda, thereby leaving journalists with a Sisyphean task, for acquiescing to the demands of one side inevitably places them in the cross hairs of the other. Press releases claiming terrorist attacks replete with death threats to specific individuals and accompanied by the instruction ‘publish without editing’ are common.

Following through has sometimes led to show-cause notices from the court, while opting to refrain has proved equally deadly.Local press associations have been unable to counter the threat that has thrived in an environment of neglect and perverse policies. Until now it was journalists working in the province’s more remote, rural areas who were particularly at risk. The last time a journalist was targeted in Quetta was in 2008, although several have since lost their lives in bomb blasts etc. With the latest incident, those waging war on journalists in Balochistan have sent the message that nowhere in the province can they consider themselves safe.

Published in Dawn, August 30th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."