Liquor deaths

IT is a tragedy that is thrown into starker relief by the fact that the sale and consumption of alcohol is restricted in the country. The fact is, where there is a demand, there will always be a supply, as well as unscrupulous elements willing to cheat the gullible public. That lives can be destroyed in the process matters little to the profit-seekers. The first week of the month saw over 20 deaths in Hyderabad as a result of the consumption of toxic liquor, or moonshine. This resulted in the PPP-led Sindh government firing its excise and taxation minister, Mukesh Kumar Chawla, over what the senior party leadership termed as “the minister’s negligence in issuing licences to substandard wine shops”. Given the scale of this incident, it would have been natural to expect a wider investigation, the assumption being that if tainted liquor was being sold on such a large scale in one city, other places might be facing the same problem. That, unfortunately, was not the case, and now Karachi finds itself confronting more than 20 deaths that took place over the Eid holidays for the same reason. The newly appointed excise and taxation minister, and the station house officer of the police station within whose remit some liquor-production facilities were discovered, have been suspended, and a probe is under way. Will it succeed and put the makers and distributors of moonshine out of business for good? One aspect of the matter in particular gives reason for doubt: DIG-East, Munir Sheikh, who heads the inquiry committee, conceded on record that at the individual level, there is police connivance in the deadly business. And, indeed, it is difficult to imagine anyone being able to run such a production facility on any sort of appreciable scale without the knowledge, if not active involvement, of local police authorities in urban areas. Once again, the ball is in the court of the law enforcers. As they tackle the problem of such facilities, can they also clean up their own act?

Rents and rackets

THE recent controversy surrounding ‘on money’, or premium charges for the immediate delivery of automobile purchases, opens an important window on the key dysfunctions that ail Pakistan’s economy. The auto makers argue that new models of their vehicles see ‘overwhelming demand’ that they struggle to meet. Consumers for their part wonder why the auto makers are so quickly overwhelmed given the extensive protections afforded to the domestic auto sector to shield their investment from foreign competition. Many end up theorising that the shortages of autos are artificially created by the companies to keep prices buoyant. The shortages, therefore, give rise to black markets, reflected in premium charges for immediate delivery. What should be noted here is that both consumers and auto companies have a point. It is indeed puzzling why auto makers find it hard to ramp up production to keep pace with demand. But it is also a fact that our economy has massive hoards of ‘black money’, large cash-rich investors looking to place their funds in investments where supply and demand can be easily subverted, and with no questions about the source of funds. Speculative buyers of this sort flock in huge numbers to real estate, commodities, stocks and sometimes even foreign exchange. The volumes involved in the latter categories are far larger than what we see in the speculative buying of autos. The ultimate loser in this speculative frenzy is always the consumer, who has to reckon with high and volatile prices for essentials like housing and food on many occasions. Periodically, we see the launch of whitener schemes, where these hoards of black money are offered amnesty to enter the formal economy with no questions asked, testifying to the powerlessness of the state before sums of dubious origin. Consumers are left trapped between rent-seeking investors on the one hand, and speculators on the other. Ultimately, the menace of ‘on money’ for automobiles will only disappear once the auto sector is sufficiently incentivised to face up to the cold winds of competition. But draining the black money hoards into fixed investments is also a crucial priority. Documentation measures and penalties can be effective in curbing the menace to a point. But eventually, larger reforms are necessary to prevent the accumulation of large sums of money outside the formal economy because these cash hoards can wreak terrible damage on the economy should they turn hostile.

Absent civilian input on Fata

PRIME Minister Nawaz Sharif may have made a historic visit to North Waziristan Agency yesterday, but optics and words of encouragement for the troops aside, what is the civilian government’s input on Fata? A day earlier, army chief Gen Raheel Sharif perhaps unwittingly played up the contrast between the military’s eagerness to be seen to be doing something for the social and economic uplift of Fata and the civilian government’s near-total apathy. Gen Sharif’s announcement that the army will, in token numbers, recruit soldiers from Fata and induct Fata schoolchildren and young adults into army-run schools and technical training institutes will not fundamentally alter the region’s socio-economic and security landscape. But that is not the point since the army cannot on its own transform the socio-economic and security realities of Fata nor does it have the resources to do so. What Gen Sharif’s announcement did underline, however, was that at least the army leadership is thinking about matters in terms of the aftermath of the military operations, while all the prime minister’s visit did was to underscore that the civilians are not even attempting to think about Fata and what it will take to bring peace, stability and, eventually, prosperity and national inclusivity to the war-torn region. Clearly, launching Operation Zarb-i-Azb in North Waziristan was not the preferred choice, possibly not even the decision, of the prime minister. Also, with nearly 200,000 troops estimated to be deployed in Fata and military operations ongoing in several areas as security remains elusive, the space for the civilians to help steer the Fata policy is not large. And all of that before even taking into consideration the troubled state of overall civil-military relations. Yet, an honest appraisal of the situation in Fata will have to confront the reality that the country’s civilian leadership, be it the previous elected government or the present one, does not really understand the complexities of the tribal areas nor is it particularly keen on developing ideas about what to do with the region — even if it had the space in the civil-military domain to do so. Surely though, Fata will never be stabilised and put on a firm, irreversible path to peace if military strategy — and the military itself — drives all policy. Set aside for a minute even the concerns about whether the security establishment has truly abandoned its good militant/bad militant policy and operational distinction. No army — not even the best intentioned and resourced — is trained to revive and invigorate in socio-economic terms a region ravaged by war. That is a role for the civilian leadership. The army leadership may often shove aside civilians, but simply surrendering, washing their hands of policy issues and sulking isn’t the way to recover the rightful space the civilians should have. The prime minister and his party need to do better, much better.

Published in Dawn, October 10th, 2014

Branchless banking

A RECENT State Bank report has provided a snapshot of the growth of branchless banking in Pakistan and is grounds for optimism that seemingly daunting challenges can be overcome with the new architecture of payment systems that technology has made possible. Two major trends appear to dominate the landscape. One is the transfer of funds between parties, where technology is rendering the age-old practice of hundi obsolete. And the other is merchant payments, where technology can possibly render cash obsolete. Thus far, the former is where the bulk of the growth has taken place, according to the State Bank, accounting for over 80pc of the growth in volumes being processed through branchless banking. Also encouraging is the rise of newcomers in the field, where the largest share of growth in such banking transactions has come from two players that entered the field just over a year ago. This indicates that competitive pressures are now kicking in, and can spur further growth in the years ahead. Branchless banking holds tremendous promise for a country such as Pakistan, where the informal sector dominates in important ways, and where cash remains the preferred medium of exchange and store of value. The promise of this form of banking lies in its ability to document the massive number of small transactions that are the expression of domestic demand. The State Bank has done an admirable job of ushering in this transformative trend in our economy, by building the architecture for its success and incentivising players in the private sector to pursue the idea. It now remains to be seen if policymakers in government will take full advantage of the potential of this technology to also put in place the right legislative architecture to leverage the promise of branchless banking into a coherent policy framework that will encourage greater formalisation of the economy over the medium term.

NSC meeting

THE Cabinet Committee on National Security may have become the National Security Committee, but it does not seem to have evolved beyond rhetoric and non-substantive decisions. Fortunately, both Pakistan and India may be signalling elsewhere — the welcome reduction in violence across the LoC and the Working Boundary yesterday, for example — that both sides are looking for an exit from the present round of fighting at least. As ever, neither Pakistan nor India is willing to concede an inch on who is to blame, with both countries steadfastly maintaining that each country’s border forces were merely responding to attacks from the other side. That may be in the nature of Pakistan-India relations, but that may also be the case because it is often the security establishment on both sides dictating such responses instead of the politicians demonstrating the courage of leadership. Be that as it may, a military fierceness that is mitigated by a sense of proportion and implications for regional stability can at least be cautiously welcomed — and both security establishments ought to know how to choreograph de-escalation until the guns fall completely silent.

Meanwhile, return to the scene of the NSC meeting yesterday. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was right in emphasising that the desire to seek peace does not mean a willingness to accept violence. Leave aside the inadequacies of the government response for a moment, however. What is the point and purpose of the Indian government led by Narendra Modi when it comes to issuing bellicose statements on Pakistan and Kashmir? Mr Modi’s foreign ministry cancelled talks with Pakistan at the foreign secretary level in August, but to what end? Surely, there are very real concerns that New Delhi has when it comes to Pakistan’s policy on India. But there are also very real concerns that Pakistan has when it comes to India, even if they gain less traction internationally. Consider that for all its non-substantive pronouncements, the NSC meeting yesterday brought together the political and military leadership of Pakistan and yet nothing harsh, fierce or unreasonable was said. True, Pakistan must do more when it comes to responding to not just Indian allegations, but also international concerns about the militancy threat emanating from Pakistan. However, there’s little to suggest that Pakistan is spoiling for a fight with India, be it at the military or civilian tier. A more forthcoming and peaceable Indian response is needed.

Pakistan’s braveheart

COURAGE is not a rare quality in Pakistan. Adversity that would break most individuals has produced some of our finest — human rights activists, journalists, not to mention ordinary people fighting against formidable odds. But Malala Yousafzai is a special case; it’s hard to find such courage in a 17-year-old coupled with a clarity of thought and an eloquence that can make cynics catch their breath and the world sit up and take notice. Yesterday, Pakistan’s braveheart won the Nobel Peace Prize, giving a nation starved of glad tidings and buffeted by crises on multiple fronts, a reason to celebrate. By awarding the prize to an education rights activist, the Nobel Committee has delivered a symbolic rebuke to the forces of regression typified by the likes of the Taliban, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State that seek to impose a system in which, aside from a slew of other depredations, children — particularly girls — would be denied the right to education; in effect, deprived of a future. From a young girl simply wanting to go to school in Swat Valley during the savage rule of the Pakistani Taliban, to a global icon who represents the millions of children out of school in the world, whether for reasons of war, militancy or state neglect — Malala’s story is inspirational on many levels.

Even after militants shot her in the head in October 2012 — a shot that veritably rang out across the world — for consistently propagating girls’ education, she did not waver. In fact, the near-fatal attack boosted her profile, although she had to move abroad for treatment and for security reasons. Since then, many international accolades have come her way, including the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. Malala’s latest award, while undoubtedly prestigious for Pakistan, should also make us reflect on how the state has failed in its obligations towards the people in many ways. Purveyors of intolerance and bigotry have been tolerated for too long here. Malala’s own struggle was forged in this environment; the fact that she has to remain abroad testifies to the continuing potency of these forces. And lest we forget, our first Nobel prize winner, Dr Abdus Salam, died away from home, his magnificent achievement ignored in Pakistan, only because he was an Ahmadi. And then there’s education. With five million children aged five to nine out of school, there is no place better than Pakistan to further Malala’s cause in a meaningful way. Finally, the fact that the joint peace prize winner is an Indian, Kailash Satyarthi, also for work in child rights, highlights the commonality of issues between India and Pakistan; it would serve their people well if these could take precedence over politics. As Malala has said so succintly, “I raise my voice not so that I can shout, but so that those without a voice can be heard.”

Published in Dawn, October 11th , 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

What next for PTI?

THE tragic deaths in the aftermath of the PTI’s large rally in Multan over the weekend are yet another emotional moment in the passionate and stamina-testing anti-government movement that Imran Khan launched two months ago. By now, the PTI has tried everything in its bid to oust the government. The sit-in on Constitution Avenue is already epic, there have been massive rallies in several cities, there has been violence and attacks on state buildings, civil disobedience has been threatened, and the PTI has surely solidified its base and even grown it some — but the government does not appear to be falling and in fact seems to be recovering from the body blows it has suffered. So, the question for the PTI: where does it go from here? The party is clearly in high campaign gear and full election mode, but how long is it sustainable? Discounting Mr Khan’s ability to carry forward momentum is risky business, but what is the PTI’s strategy here? Is there any long-term plan? Perhaps Mr Khan views his party’s ascent to power as a two-step process. As long as Nawaz Sharif is prime minister and the PML-N are in power, the PTI cannot be in power and Mr Khan cannot be prime minister. So ouster of the PML-N must precede any realisation of the PTI’s ambitions and therefore the PTI is not concerning itself with long-term strategising. Yet, a permanent protest movement is one thing, while a movement specifically designed to oust a government will need to contend with the reality that the government does not appear to be falling. Passion and commitment aside, exactly what the PTI’s strategic thinking is appears to be as much a puzzle today as it was two months ago. At least in terms of an approach, the government’s strategy is easier to discern. It appears the PML-N has decided to revive itself and return to the business of governing while ignoring the PTI and PAT protests. Given that the PTI in particular is refusing to budge from its demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Sharif, this may make sense — but only up to a point. Ultimately, the PML-N will need to address the legitimate demands of the protesters and, at a minimum, enact meaningful reforms to ensure more transparent elections. A permanent stand-off is in the interest of neither the government nor the country.

Closure of beaches

THE tendency of state authorities to swing into action only after the damage is done is well documented, as is their proclivity to impose bans at the cost of long-term solutions. Over the holidays last week, residents of Karachi had reason, yet again, to reflect upon this as they found that any attempt to get to one of the several accessible beaches had been blocked. Police and other law-enforcement authorities had put up pickets and check posts, even rolls of barbed wire, to stop many dozens of people whose only fault was that they wanted to spend a day watching the waves. The reason, the policemen told them, was that swimming in the sea was banned, and since they could not prevent people from entering the water, they were disallowing access — even to the sand. To be sure, the ban appeared valid at the time it was imposed — in the aftermath of the drowning of over 20 people in the turbulent monsoon tides over the Eidul Fitr holidays in July. However, had the authorities taken adequate measures in time, less lives would have been lost. The phenomenon of dangerous tides over the monsoon season is not new, and increasing the number of lifeguards and deputing police on the beaches could have mitigated the tragedy. Letting the ban remain two months on, though, and continuing to deny the people their right to go to public venues, is befuddling. The monsoon rains are over and the sea is far safer now than it was during the monsoon season. In any case, not letting people swim is quite different from preventing them from taking in the view. Further, as a report in this newspaper highlighted on Friday, there are many people, from pushcart vendors to fishermen to sellers of fruit and drinks, who depend on beach tourism to bolster incomes. The latter are being badly affected by the authorities’ high-handedness. Access to the beaches needs to be restored immediately, and long-term safety measures implemented.

Protests and recovery

AFTER weeks of haphazard guessing and politically motivated estimates of economic losses due to the ongoing protests in Islamabad, we finally have a fairly rigorous idea of what the real cost of the political turmoil has been. The World Bank’s South Asia Economic Focus, released this week, wisely shies away from giving a rupee cost of the turmoil, saying “it is still too early to assess the impact” of the protests. The protests could shave off up to 2.1 percentage points from the country’s GDP this year, but the growth rate is still projected to be up to 4.6pc , against a budgeted target of 4.4pc. Beyond this, the report points to other short-term effects that include damage to the “investor friendly image that Pakistan was carefully rebuilding”, loss of reform momentum, possible effects as a result of “the virtual paralysis of the government machinery”, and “small losses” on the foreign exchange reserves, that led to a 3pc slide in the rupee. Beyond these impacts, the Bank paints a relatively rosy picture of the economy, saying things were on the uptick until “a succession of political blows knocked steam out of the recovery”. Growth last year was “the highest in seven years” for example, with services and large-scale manufacturing as the drivers. The report notes a “significant strengthening” of reserves, the fiscal deficit saw “a significant correction” and there was “a strong recovery” in credit to the private sector.

Not a word is mentioned of the growing trade deficit, except to note that “export competitiveness suffered”. Moreover, the report says the reform agenda made “promising progress” and price stability “was preserved”. On the whole, the Bank is happy to run with the story that the country was in the midst of a strong economic recovery until the protests came along and cut the party short. The report reinforces the view that the short-term, immediate impact of the protests is difficult to discern, unlike the rapid assessments that can give one a rupee estimate of the losses from natural disasters like floods and earthquakes. But the larger strategic impact is very much there, mainly through complicating government decision-making in key areas like tariff reform and privatisation, delaying the completion of the IMF review, and casting uncertainty over investment decisions. The rosy assessment of the government’s economic track record is problematic, but it is possible to look past it because the report is about the larger South Asian environment and is dealing with Pakistan in summary form only. However, the assessment about the impact that the protests have had on the economy is a mature one. Thus far, any impact the protests might have had has been limited to the upper reaches of the economy, with day-to-day functioning impacted only briefly in the opening days of the crisis.

Published in Dawn, October 12th, 2014

__________________
"I am still learning."

13-10-2014
Cooperation on drones?
THE drones are back. After a long pause, the past week has seen a flurry of strikes in Fata and, as ever, there is little independently verifiable information from the scene of the attacks; nor are the Pakistan and US governments shedding much light on who specifically the targets are. Yet, for a programme that is mostly murky and always controversial, there are several patterns that can be discerned over the years in the strikes. Connecting those dots, it appears at the moment that there is renewed cooperation between the Pakistan military and the US administration/CIA on drones, for there has been very little by way of fierce verbal pushback by the Pakistani government over the latest strikes. Relative silence can certainly be interpreted as, at the very least, tacit acceptance and, possibly, active cooperation between the countries. In fact, from the general location of the strikes and their emphasis on North Waziristan where the Pakistan Army is actively engaged in fighting militants, it would appear that active cooperation is taking place for surely neither the US nor Pakistan could possibly want an errant US-fired missile hitting a Pakistani military target.

Much of what can bring Pakistan and the US closer together in fighting militancy and terrorism is good for the bilateral relationship as well as a boon for counterterrorism in the region. However, the connection between the tactical and the strategic has often been missing, so that while periods of intense drone strikes have damaged militancy networks in Fata, especially the two Waziristan agencies, they have never really extended to a convergence of overall interests of Pakistan and the US. There is a sense then that the drone strikes programme and its details are handled in a compartmentalised way, where the only spill-over has been on the negative side rather than the positive side of developing a wider partnership with shared security interests. Nevertheless, with Pakistan at long last having launched an operation in North Waziristan thereby necessarily disrupting the operations of Afghan-centric militants with sanctuaries in North Waziristan and the US mission in Afghanistan vastly decreasingly at least militarily by the end of the year, there is also a possibility that renewed security cooperation, on drone strikes, for example, could lead to a closer understanding on other critical security matters.

A close Pakistan-US relationship may be anathema to some sections of the state and society here and Pakistan may have few real friends left in the US. But impatience, mistrust and suspicion cannot obfuscate the underlying truth: the US and Pakistan need each other.

Going it alone has worked for neither Pakistan nor the US a reality borne out not just by the experience of the past decade and a half but over the course of this country`s history. Better to cooperate than to posture especially when it`s the militants who stand to gain from the latter.

No asylum
THE queue of those wanting to leave the country to escape persecution or for opportunities abroad is long. The aspirants are persistent even if their destinations change. These days, Australia is a prime ideal to be chased. While Pakistanis may not be on top of the list of those seeking asylum in Australia in recent years, the government there has found it necessary to issue a stern reminder. An advertisement appearing in newspapers last week tells those whether man, woman or child who get on an Australiabound boat without visa to beware. It is a loud, clear message, entitled `no way`, designed to convey the resolve to not let in the `unwanted`. Their struggles necessitated by a genuine desire for a better life, for which they cannot be faulted, the human side to the asylum seekers is eclipsed by rules and numbers. According to the UN refugee agency, `there were 45.2 million forcibly displaced people worldwide at the end of 2012, the highest number since 1994.

Of these, 28.8m were internally displaced persons, 15.4m were refugees and 937,000 were asylum seekers`. This puts extra pressure on governments of destinations preferred by asylum seekers.

Meanwhile, the number of countries putting up a `no entry` board for Pakistanis has increased. For example, in recent times, Sri Lanka has had problems with Pakistanis looking for asylum. Those who put up the bar routinely come under criticism, which has not prevented them from setting tougher conditions for entry for Pakistanis and others. The logic is simple: the flow of refugees has to be contained and the traffic has to be closely monitored, even when the UN rules for refugees and other international law are adhered to. In the latest instance, the Australian emphasis is on unlawful entry, and on those who approach the country by the sea. The focus may expand if the pressure from refugees mounts. There are many legal ways that remain open to asylum seekers, whatever destination they may have in mind. The declaration by the Australian government is not the first attempt to make people aware. Since containing people is a hard act to defend and throws up its own stories of human suffering and ambition, it will always be argued against. In the end, however, the law has to take its course. Pakistan can avert a few tragedies by undertaking to educate the people about the law before they take the deep, long and often hazardous plunge.

Yemen on the brink
AS Syria and Iraq grab headlines due to the rise of the selfstyled Islamic State, another potential tinderbox in the Middle East sizzles in the background. Yemen, which has long suffered from instability, may implode if its multiple crises are not addressed crises which could ultimately see Al Qaeda or ideologically similar groups carving out a new base. A warning sign came in the shape of two bombings recently in which around 70 people were killed. The first struck a gathering of Houthi rebels in the capital Sana`a, while the second attack took place in Mukalla targeting a military outpost. Al Qaeda`s local branch considered to be the most active of the terror franchise`s wings is believed to be responsible as it had earlier warned it would target the Houthis.

At present, there are three main crises brewing in Yemen. The first involves the Houthis, a tribal militant group that follows the Zaydi Shia school, based in northern Yemen, which swept into Sana`a last month demanding, amongst other things, a new prime minister.

The Houthis have had a testy relationship with the government both during strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh`s rule as well as after his 2012 ouster. The second critical issue is the presence of Al Qaeda in Yemen; the terrorist group is opposed to both the government and the Houthis. Thirdly, a separatist campaign in the formerly independent South Yemen refuses to simmer down. There is also a sectarian element to the crises; while the Houthis are Zaydi Shias, among the government`s supporters are Sunni and Salafi groups.

Also, the Houthis are believed to have Iranian support, while the government is reportedly close to the Saudis. At this critical juncture, it is essential for political forces in Yemen as well as their external backers to find negotiated solutions to their problems. For the collapse of the state or an escalation of sectarian conflict could pave the way for Al Qaeda to take advantage of the power vacuum.

14-10-2014
Flight from Balochistan
ADECADE of insecurity in Balochistan has had a grim effect on the troubled province`s demographics. According to the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of citizens belonging to religious minority groups as well as settlers from other parts of Pakistan have left Balochistan, thanks to an atmosphere of hostility and violence, which has been shaped by sectarian death squads, separatist militants, and, sadly enough, the state. Part of an HRCP delegation that recently visited Balochistan, the group`s chairperson Zohra Yusuf told the media on Sunday that Shias, Hindus and Zikris have been leaving the province in droves over the past nine years, relocating elsewhere in the country and abroad. The human rights group gathered this information by conducting interviews and recording testimonials. The HRCP chief also raised the issue of violence faced by journalists in the volatile region; over the last decade, around 40 media persons have been killed, though none of the perpetrators have been brought to justice.

There are numerous actors responsible for violence in Balochistan.

Amongst the most lethal are sectarian groups that have unleashed their weapons on Shias mostly Hazaras while the small Zikri community has also found itself in their cross hairs. The most troubling aspect is that the religious extremists are perceived as being tolerated if not supported by the establishment to checkmate Baloch separatists. Meanwhile, the latter are responsible for violence of their own. Along with targeting symbols of the state, they have also turned their guns on settlers in the province. And apart from violence motivated by sectarian and ethno-nationalist considerations, the state, too, has ferociously come down on the separatists and Baloch political activists. While the HRCP said violence had decreased to some extent under the current provincial government`s watch, it is a troubling reality that the dumping of mutilated bodies continues. All the while, the media which can independently help determine the facts in Balochistan are being cowed through murder and intimidation. As local journalists point out, they face pressure from both the state and the separatists.

An exodus of religious minorities as well as settlers spells disaster for diversity in Balochistan. Due to this flight, the people of Balochistan will suffer the most. After all, among those who have left there are educated professionals, tradesmen, educators etc who are crucial to the functioning of a vibrant society. Perhaps there is still time to stem such negative trends if a genuine effort is made to bring all estranged parties to the table and solve Balochistan`s problems through dialogue. But for that to happen the elected government needs to be given full authority to operate, as barely below the surface it is still the security establishment that calls the shots in Balochistan. It is the establishment which needs to reflect on why its policies have failed to bring peace to the province.
Transit fee accord
THE signing of a transit fee accord for the CASA 1000 project is a step in the right direction, but the big question mark hanging over the project remains. CASA 1000 aims to bring 1,300MW of electricity from the hydropower surpluses of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan via a 1200km long transmission line. Construction of major transmission infrastructure will cost an estimated $1bn, funded largely by the World Bank that approved the project in March of this year. The transit fee accord now opens the way towards finalising the power purchase agreements for Afghanistan and Pakistan, the two buyer countries in the group. It also opens the way to arrange funding for the remaining portion of the project that is not covered by the World Bank loan of $526m. Once those two steps are in place, work on building the infrastructure can commence, with a completion date targeted for 2020. More progress has been made in the last one year than in the preceding two decades.

Protecting the infrastructure from sabotage remains a major stumbling block, however. The problem is the transit of electricity through Afghanistan. Technically, Kabul is responsible for security of the portion of the transmission line that passes through Afghanistan. But can Kabul live up to this responsibility? A powersharing agreement has been reached between the two contenders for power following the Afghan elections, but it is not clear whether Kabul will be able to call the shots in Kunduz or Nangarhar provinces through which the transmission lines will travel. It is far from clear what shape the next order in Afghanistan will take. Will the residual force that is to remain under the Bilateral Security Agreement take any responsibility for protecting the transmission lines? Is anyone talking to the warring groups regarding security? Will the warlords along the way need to be paid off? As presently conceived, the CASA 1000 project as well as the TAPI gas pipelines are exactly what Pakistan needs to ensure its long-term economic viability. Leveraging the country`s so-called location rent is critical to finding a sustainable way out of the power crisis, and to underwrite the resumption of growth and employment to deal with the youth bulge coming our way. But before that can happen, all parties to the agreement need to realise that a strong and stable order in Afghanistan serves everybody`s interests.

A hospital wedding

THE residents of Lahore`s backstreets were doing what is routinely done in the country: setting up shamianas in the middle of the road to prepare for a wedding party accompanied by the usual bustle and sound. That the venue happened to be on the premises of a public hospital might have appeared quite odd to some, but the holding of such functions here was not entirely without precedent. The hospital`s junior staff have their living quarters situated next to the main buildings where patients are treated, and, from time to time, they use the adjacent open space for organising big events such as weddings. This is the most affordable option available to them. In this case, a close relative of a journalist was admitted to a nearby ward where patients were disturbed by the noise of a wedding party on Saturday. Celebrations reportedly continued until 2:30am. A repeat of festivities on Sunday led the patient with contacts in the media to complain. Messages were sent out and the town administration was stirred into action, vowing to move under the marriage act which bars wedding parties in Punjab beyond 10pm.

While such a social event on the premises of a hospital stands out for its incongruity, it is only part of a trend where all manner of government and privately owned premises from schools to even a provincial assembly can be occupied for holding events without fear of the organisers being pulled up. Somehow, these occasions appear to bring with them the required immunity, and one can trust the organisers to always find for themselves free space that involves no charges and no notions of breach of citizens` rights. The trait was in full evidence during Eidul Azha when, as per tradition, roads were blocked and wide spaces taken up for purposes of sacrifice. It will take some aware, constantly complaining citizens and a set of more well-defined rules to get everyone to think about the unwanted effects of such `happy encroachments`.

15-10-2014

Jailbreak thwarted
THE attempted jailbreak in Karachi, thwarted by the Rangers and announced on Monday, shows that dangerous minds are hard at work as militants make plans to try and free their comrades in order to spread further chaos in society. According to the paramilitary force, a 45-metre-long tunnel was being dug leading from a house close to the Karachi Central Jail all the way up to the city`s main penitentiary. The militants` reported plan was to free around 100 inmates inside the facility. The incident brings to mind the daring jailbreaks orchestrated by the banned TTP in Dera Ismail Khan last year and Bannu in 2012. But where the extremists had been successful in freeing hundreds of prisoners in both operations, including hardened terrorists, in Karachi`s case a mixture of luck and good intelligence prevented the repetition of a similar debacle.

Rangers` officials say the diggers of the tunnel were only 10 metres away from their intended target inside the jail when the raid was carried out with the aid of `a national security institution`, indicating the help of one of the intelligence agencies. Reports had been circulating for some time that jails could be attacked; in fact the Sindh minister for prisons told the media on Tuesday that the Hyderabad Central Jail was also under threat. So the intelligence and law-enforcement agencies deserve kudos for averting a disaster.

That said, lessons must be learnt from the incident. The Rangers say, following the raid on the house, a search inside the jail led to the discovery of knives, wires, jihadi literature and a ladder. This shows that the threat of dangerous militants escaping cannot be taken lightly. Firstly, it was indeed irresponsible and dangerous to keep militants subscribing to a violent or extremist ideology together.

In fact, because of overcrowding in prisons, violent criminals or terrorists are locked up with offenders doing time for relatively lesser crimes. This can expose the latter variety of prisoners to danger as well as radicalisation. Inmates under trial or serving sentences for terrorism should be separated and housed in different jails in other cities and provinces. Modifying the jail infrastructure is important, as is enhancing security features in prisons that house dangerous offenders and suspects. There must also be greater effort for trials within jail premises to minimise the risk of violent suspects escaping en route to the courts.

As this paper has been arguing, timely and actionable intelligence is the state`s best weapon to counter the militants before they strike.

For example, the Karachi prison is located in a densely populated area. Had the militants succeeded in their aim, highly dangerous men could have melted away into a labyrinthine maze of narrow streets within minutes. Hence it is essential that the security establishment keep its eyes and ears open in and around jails and facilities that face threats from the militants.



Powering profits

THE power sector regulator, Nepra, has written a letter to all privately owned power producers asking them to provide audited financial statements that explain how their profitability is so high at a time when they are complaining about the rising receivables from the government. In background conversations, Nepra officials say that some independent power producers enjoy `enormous profits of up to 40pc` and that some elements from their financial affairs `might not have been noticed during the course of public hearings, grant of licences or approval of tariffs`. The regulator could, they argue, demand a probe into the financial affairs of these IPPs as a routine matter to determine whether there was any overbilling taking place on account of capacity charges of other elements of billing for power dispatch, the availability of plant, and the efficiency factor. This comes on the heels of increasingly louder demands by the IPPs for the government to settle all outstanding receivables which have climbed to almost Rs300bn.

Perhaps this is only tough talk from Nepra, designed to deflect the IPPs` demands for settlement of their accounts. But concerns about overbilling by the IPPs are widespread, given the complex and detailed nature of the costs according to which they bill the government. These concerns need to be addressed through more than tough language. True, any repeat of the coercive renegotiation of power tariffs and capacity charges as seen in the tenure of the last PML-N government would be unwise. The costs of that episode were high for the government, besides the fact that such coercive tactics are unfair in the absence of strong evidence of wrongdoing.

However, there are options short of such extraordinary measures. For example, a large audit exercise has just been completed of last year`s epic circular debt settlement but the auditor`s report has not been made public. The government should ask the auditors to release an executive summary of that report, at the very least. Since the public is being made to bear the burden of sharply rising power tariffs, it is in the public interest to show a detailed breakdown of the cost of generation, which we are told is the chief reason behind these rising tariffs. Increased transparency in the cash flows of the power sector is a public right, and this right must be upheld by more than just words. It is time to make transparency in the power sector a critical policy priority.


Captaincy furore


FRESH turmoil in Pakistan cricket over the team captaincy for the upcoming World Cup 2015 has yet again highlighted bad governance on part of the Pakistan Cricket Board. It is also hurting the national team`s chances of putting up a decent show in the upcoming Test series against the mighty Australians. The captaincy row was needlessly triggered by a rare, though perplexing, instance which saw regular skipper Misbah-ul-Haq opting out of the final ODI in Abu Dhabi last Sunday after Pakistan lost the series against Australia following successive defeats in Sharjah and Dubai.

Seasoned all-rounder Shahid Afridi was handed the reins for the third game in a rather mysterious manner which provided fodder for speculation to the media and fanned fears of groupings within the team. Chairman Shaharyar Khan`s remarks that the final decision on leaving or retaining the World Cup captaincy rested with Misbah did not help.

The fact is that while the national cricket team continues to grapple with serious issues such as countering the Aussie juggernaut and numerous injuries to its key players, the PCB`s ineptitude as well as the substantially large team management in the UAE have only compounded the crisis. It was only last month that the banishment of ace bowler Saeed Ajmal by the ICC over an illegal bowling action coupled with the unceremonious ouster of reliable campaigner Younis Khan from the ODIs had rocked Pakistan cricket. Regretfully, it seems that neither the PCB nor the team managers have learnt their lesson. The bottom line is that Pakistan has lost the ODI series 3-0 and are likely to experience the same fate in the two-match Test series commencing next week if there is no attempt to inject logic into decision-making. The PCB had named Misbah as skipper for the mega event a good two months ago and it now needs to remove any ambiguity on the issue. This would greatly help Pakistan go into the Test series with a clear mind and high morale.

16-10-2014
Poor Turkish strategy

THE Turkish government`s decision to bomb the bases of Kurdish militants inside Turkey must look very odd to all those who were expecting Ankara to put its shoulder to the wheel and focus on the more important job of resisting the selfproclaimed Islamic State`s relentless advance. Both the attack by the PKK on a Turkish military outpost and the government`s response threaten to undermine a ceasefire that has been under way since the two sides agreed to a peace process two years ago.

What led to the PKK attack on the military post can be guessed: Kurdish anger over the Turkish failure to join the US-led coalition against the IS. But the attack on the outpost wasn`t exactly the best way to express disgust as the Kurds aren`t the only ones angry over Ankara`s decision to sit on the fence while Kobane`s fate hangs in the balance. The Alevi minority is also seething with anger, and there have been demonstrations across the country against the government`s shocking neutrality at a time when the entire Middle East is looking to Turkey and to powers beyond to help crush the IS, whose success threatens to create a new order that would undermine civilisation as we know it.

Evidently, Turkey`s priority is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad`s head. In fact, it has been criticised for allegedly allowing its soil to be used by militants as a transit route to Syria. Ankara also feels that bombing IS forces will mean indirect support to Kurdish guerrillas fighting `caliph` al-Baghdadi`s army. But the Kurdish problem has been there for decades, and it is the IS `blitzkrieg` that has completely upset all other calculations, for Turkey must realise that if the extremist hordes aren`t crushed in Syria, they will sooner or later enter Turkish territory to wreak havoc on the Middle East`s most democratic and stable country. Given the turmoil within, it is time Ankara reordered its priorities and realised the danger which the IS poses to Turkey itself.


Impact of protests
THE anti-government protests on Constitution Avenue may not be over, but they do appear to have morphed from sit-ins to a travelling roadshow of sorts, with Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri both drawing large crowds in various cities of the country. So perhaps an interim stock-taking of a kind is in order: what exactly have the protests achieved so far? The PML-N government is certainly weaker, the army politically stronger, the media has been thoroughly politicised, and the profiles of Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri have increased. But there are several other macro and micro issues too. At the systemic level, politics as a whole and politicians in general stand demonised once again and increasingly portrayed as the root of all evil. This can be seen in the agitation against the so-called VIP culture and virtually every state failure being pinned on them.

To be sure, the political class as a whole and many politicians within it have many failings. Yet, there is a sense that instead of holding the political class`s feet to the fire, the flames of the ongoing protests may have engulfed the democratic system with the obvious winners being the anti-democratic forces in the country.

That this has occurred time and again over this country`s tawdry political history only strengthens the suspicion that the winners are not accidental. Yet, there are several other immediate issues too.

Mr Khan and Mr Qadri started out with a coherent and narrow set of demands but they escalated matters by adding on the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to a set of otherwise mostly reasonable demands. The government necessarily baulked at the idea of sidelining its own leader, after which the PTI and PAT have sprayed an increasingly incoherent and inconsistent set of allegations at the government. On some days, the government is put to the sword for being too soft on India and not strong enough on Kashmir, on other days it is some localised misstep. Most of the time now, it appears the PTI and PAT are simply glancing at the news of the day to come up with a new line of attack against the government.

While the focus is on the government`s foibles, it is really many of the missteps of the protesters that have limited their impact, from the ill-advised storming of Islamabad`s red zone to the insider revelations of Javed Hashmi. Yet, as ever, the onus must ultimately be on the government to give the country an opportunity to get past this destabilising phase in politics. Consider that even the appointment of a permanent chief election commissioner continues to prove elusive.

If that is to be tied to electoral reforms, as the government is arguing, then where are those reforms and when will they be presented? Governing involves dealing with crises too, not just pretending they no longer exist.


Religious intolerance
IT doesn`t necessarily take devastating, large-scale attacks to underscore how extremism is tightening its grip over the country. While catastrophic terrorist strikes can unite a nation, such as after last year`s attack on Peshawar`s All Saints Church or the bombings against the Hazara in Quetta, it is also true that the steady drip, drip of targeted killings and vigilante `justice` can be more dangerous. That is because over time they inure people to the discord and violence insidiously seeping into the warp and weft of society. In this context, the statement issued by the HRCP this week was much needed. Taking into account the many ways in which citizens` rights are violated here, it has shone a comprehensive light on the big picture, one that is exceedingly disturbing. For, while the attention of the nation, and its media, has been distracted by the sound and fury of the sit-ins that had been taking place and the series of mass rallies being staged in the country, the abuse of human rights has not only thrived, it has in fact gained in intensity.

The scourge of religious extremism, for one, has begun to manifest itself across a wider canvas, claiming ever more vulnerable victims. Among them is the small community of Zikris in southern Balochistan and the even tinier one of Sikhs in Peshawar. The beleaguered Shia Hazaras try to barricade themselves within self-contained ghettoes in Quetta for their safety (and even that tactic doesn`t always work as the recent suicide attack against them illustrated). Pity the Ahmadis, for their murder does not even elicit a murmur of condemnation from officialdom. Meanwhile, sectarian killings in Karachi continue with barely a pause, claiming lives of ordinary people who have no choice but to go out into the streets for their daily bread. At the same time, raising a voice for victims of intolerance and bigotry has become increasingly challenging in a hostile environment.

Blasphemy accused often cannot find lawyers to defend them, and the media, particularly in Balochistan, is menaced by threats from various quarters, including religious extremists. Despite the state`s realisation, at least in part, of the folly of using religious proxies to further political ends, it appears unwilling, or unable, to take the bull by the horns. It is a mark of shame that those who fuel the flames of intolerance and carry out their blood-soaked agenda do so largely with impunity in Pakistan.

17-10-2014
Split in Taliban ranks
THE rise of the self-styled Islamic State was always going to have repercussions for the militant complex in Pakistan.

The only real question is: how much of an effect will IS have here? The announcement this week by several TTP commanders, headlined by Taliban spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid, that their allegiance now lies with Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi has underlined the lure of IS has for splashy headlines, but the real impact may be limited. Certainly, the banned TTP stands further weakened and Mullah Fazlullah is an increasingly isolated figure, almost consigned to his localised status during the peak of the Swat insurgency.

Additionally, gains for IS are likely to weaken the hand of Al Qaeda.

But does all of that translate into IS being the next big thing in militancy here? The resumé of the six TTP commanders may be semi-impressive, but the reality is that they are on the run and unlikely to have much to offer in terms of furthering the IS agenda in Pakistan.

The main problem with discerning whether the IS graph is on the rise because the TTP graph is on the decline is that it is not known whether the fracturing and splintering of the TTP is driven by disagreements over the leadership of Mullah Fazlullah or an ideological split with deeper, more problematic roots. The rivalry between the two Mehsud groups in the TTP was long-standing, and the rise of groups outside the Waziristan hub, especially the Swat and Mohmand Taliban, had made the TTP umbrella all the more unwieldy and unmanageable. The North Waziristan operation surely exacerbated the internal tensions within the TTP, as must have the security establishment`s clandestine efforts to chip away at the unity the TTP often aspired to. Yet, there is also a perennial fault line among militants here: a localised agenda versus a pan-Islamic vision. Essentially, do militants focus on securing Fata, defeating the Pakistani state and stopping at that or do they always have an eye towards wider goals encompassing the Muslim world? Al Qaeda and its affiliates always pushed for a wider vision, whereas a number of Pakistan-origin militants have had more limited goals focused on securing territory inside Pakistan. Now, IS the new Al Qaeda in a sense has rooted its appeal in a global outlook.

If the TTP fracturing and the lure of IS is rooted in something more than localised factors, the state here will have an even bigger challenge to deal with. When simply dealing with T TP militants with a Pakistan-centric agenda has proved so difficult, how will the state cobble together a strategy to fight a global militant complex that IS could come to represent? Surely though, even if IS is not destined to gain much ground in Pakistan, an old truth still applies: when the existing militant threat is not dealt with, the future threat invariably is more dangerous and complicated.


More CNG licences
LITTLE by little, the government appears to be climbing down from the previous administration`s attempts to restrain the growth of the CNG sector. The latest step in this direction is the approval of 30 licences for new CNG stations, even as the sector is gasping for its allocations of natural gas. The last government had imposed a ban on the issuance of new licences for CNG stations as the sector had grown rapidly, arguing that the dwindling stock of domestic gas was better utilised for power generation and fertiliser, as well as other industrial uses. Those with licence applications pending when the ban went into effect were given provisional licences, and went ahead with their investments. The Supreme Court ordered the government to settle the issue of those working under provisional licences, and the government obliged in January of this year by granting 20 marketing licences to those operating under provisional terms. This week the government has paved the way for 30 more to join the club of licensed CNG dealers.

Whether or not the licences ought to have been issued is a complicated issue. But what is not complicated is the growing shortage of the precious stock of domestic gas. The ban imposed by the previous government has proven very difficult to uphold because the CNG business is a cash cow and there is constant pressure for grant of licence to favoured parties. The pending issue of those with provisional licences, as well as the difficulties associated with attempts to ban the import of CNG kits and cylinders, highlight the struggle the state has had to wage to restrain the growth of this sector. More recently, CNG dealers were allowed to import LNG once the infrastructure for doing so is in place, but without any clarity as to how pricing will work in that arrangement. The recent grant of further licences might well be justified according to the technicalities of the law, but this is an opportune moment to recall the good reasons behind why attempts to restrain the growth of this sector came into being in the first place. The country cannot afford further increases in allocations to the CNG sector. Let us hope that the grant of licences this week is not a slippery slope back towards unbridled growth in the vehicular use of CNG.

Assemblies ranked
IVEN the results of studies in recent years, it is unusual that a private research organisation now places Punjab behind the other three provinces. But then, it is about the working of the provincial legislatures and the Punjab Assembly has never been a priority with Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. He has always tried to avoid getting bogged down in work inside the house when real action awaited him outside. According to the study conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have shown greater will than Punjab to follow the broad principles of involving the assemblies in meaningful activity since the last general election. The key indicators that were looked at included: lawmaking, formation of standing committees, time spent in sessions (particularly on crucial budget discussions), attendance of leaders of the treasury and opposition, punctuality, etc. Under most heads, Punjab did worse than the other provinces, reconfirming the style of governance long preferred by Mr Shahbaz Sharif and the need for correction here but without really providing those who have fared better in this case any great cause for celebration.

The best formula is one that allows every arm of the system to work at its most efficient. Not only could all four provinces of the country do better on the legislative front, some complementary action by the other components that make up the system could have brought better all-round results for the people. It can be argued that, in comparison to Punjab, the study brings out a tendency of some not very efficient governments to try and hide behind the grand façade of a provincial assembly. In a nutshell, all these assemblies and governments are still in the early stages of striking the right balance for smoother functioning of the system to the people`s advantage. For Punjab specifically, it is yet another reminder about a much-needed shift that allows broadening of the power base, delegation of responsibilities and consultation with people through their representatives.

18-10-2014
LOOKING for meaning in a by-election result comes with the usual caveats. Too much should not be read into byelections. The electorate is often uninterested. A general election can and does often produce very different results. Yet, sometimes the result speaks for itself. Short on principle and consistency the PTI may have been in backing the independent candidate Mohammad Amir Dogar, but the party has proved a point: it continues to attract voters. And clever as the PML-N may have tried to be in backing a former party member, Javed Hashmi, in his bid to defeat the PTI of which he was until recently a member, the N-League has demonstrated that all is not well in Punjab as far as the party is concerned. To be sure, given that the seat was won by Mr Hashmi on a PTI ticket in May 2013 and the PML-N is not a dominant force in south Punjab, the pluses for the PTI from Thursday`s by-election result are bigger than the PMLN`s minuses.

For the PML-N, NA-149 may be a single seat that had not been with the party to begin with, but there is a wider problem: several more by-elections will have to be held in Punjab once the PTI`s en masse resignations from the National Assembly take effect.

And while the distance between Multan and Lahore may have once been great, perhaps as great as the distance between an urban and rural voter in the province, poll trends in Punjab suggest a flattening out of the electorate with similar themes animating voters across regions. The public may not have turned on the PML-N over the last year, but neither is it enthused by the party`s performance at the centre and possibly even at the provincial level. Similarly, while Imran Khan`s message may often be muddled and contradictory and his support base not growing enormously, his core theme of dissent is resonating with many sections of the public. The democratic, constitutional system is not delivering adequately or quickly enough in the public`s estimation and people are willing to look elsewhere for hope. The PML-N`s stodginess, stubbornness and listlessness are only compounding a sense thatitis either out oftouch orunable to deliver on the raised expectations of the public.

Still, one by-election does not necessarily make for a reversal of May 2013. The PTI will be cheered by the win, but there is also a warning of sorts buried in Thursday`s results: without a plan and without the capacity to execute it, any party that campaigns on hope will suffer the electoral consequences of unmet expectations.

Much clearer is the continuing decline of the PPP in Punjab.

NA-149 was essentially a two-horse race, with the PPP candidate absolutely nowhere. Is the PPP`s decline in the province terminal? The results would appear to suggest so.

Blasphemy ruling

THE Lahore High Court has upheld the death sentence against Asiya Bibi in a blasphemy case which goes back five years.

A mother of five children and a Christian, she was accused of passing derogatory remarks about the Prophet (PBUH) by her neighbours near Nankana Sahib in central Punjab in 2009. The case got widespread coverage in the local and international media and aroused passions in Pakistan due to its sensitive nature. It was this case that led to the assassination of the then Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer by one of his official guards. Since then, those who have appeared to even mildly be advocating a fair trial for a blasphemy accused according to Pakistani law have been direly threatened. A federal minister who had chosen to speak about Asiya Bibi was gunned down and one rights lawyer who was defending a blasphemy accused in Multan was murdered. On Thursday, a high court judge ruled that there is no other punishment but death for the crime that Asiya Bibi has been convicted of. A defence lawyer has said his client would appeal in the Supreme Court but those who brought up the charge are already celebrating, calling it a `victory of Islam`.

More or less the same intimidating atmosphere has prevailed throughout the trial first at the subordinate court which pronounced the death sentence and then at the high court. The accused came to be summarily viewed as guilty the moment she was accused, caught in the wave of hatred routinely generated by blasphemy cases here. There were a few voices which called for a careful approach to the trial, but this was too emotional an issue for the charged crowd to allow any advice to proceed cautiously, let alone entertain any suggestion for review. The fact, however, remains that the law as it exists has to take its course; there has to be a trial, which cannot be complete without the accused exercising his or her right to defence. But for a defence to have any meaning, there have to be lawyers who can do the job assigned to them without fear of being condemned as offenders themselves. As any debate about revisiting the law gets increasingly hazardous and as points about the possibility of the law being used to settle personal scores are forcefully pushed out of the discussion, the next question is: is any fair trial possible in the atmosphere of extreme fear that surrounds all blasphemy cases?

Afghanistan fatigue

WITH the scheduled drawdown of foreign troops in Afghanistan under way, it was inevitable that there would be a palpable sense of donor fatigue in nations including those that have poured millions of dollars into the country. How serious the effects of this will prove, though, was indicated by a statement put out by the World Food Programme in Kabul on Tuesday. The UN food assistance agency faces a funding gap of about $30m for the programme it runs in Afghanistan and warned that this had forced it to cut rations for up to a million people there, out of a total of 3.7 million that it is aiding. `We have had to cut down the rations of the people we are assisting, just so we can buy some time, so we don`t stop altogether,` said the Afghanistan country director Claude Jibidar. As a result of the cuts, the calorie count of the food relief has dropped from 2,100 calories a day to 1,500. Needless to say, those receiving aid from the WFP are amongst the poorest of the poor. Many of them had to flee their homes in the latest iteration of war and have yet to find a steady means of livelihood.

This reality is a reminder of the shape of things to come. With new wars and new crises elsewhere and in other regions, attention will inevitably shift fast. But the world needs to recall its responsibilities towards Afghanistan, a country whose misfortunes are not entirely of its own making. Having been ravaged by conflict for upwards of 30 years, with generations that have seen nothing but violence, improvement in the country`s social fabric and infrastructure is a matter of the long haul. In this, the authorities in Afghanistan will need the support and cooperation of not just neighbouring countries such as Pakistan which continues to host millions of refugees on its soil but also of others. With the foreign presence dwindling fast, Afghanistan must not be left exposed to another cycle of instability.

19-10-2014

Power reshuffle

RECENT changes in the power sector, arguably one of the most crucial areas in need of major reform, have led to much debate. A new face has been nominated for the post of secretary, water and power. Outgoing secretary Nargis Sethi had taken up the challenge after efficiently managing some very senior federal government posts. Her tough talk led many to believe she would ensure that the power bureaucracy delivered results, particularly where improving recoveries and raising ef ficiencies were concerned. The sheer force of confidence that Ms Sethi brought with her were assets -up to a point. But ultimately, the intrigues of the inept in the power bureaucracy proved stronger than her willpower, and the results of the pressure exerted by her to accelerate recoveries led to an overbilling scandal, which apparently played a major role in her premature removal. The episode goes to show that tough talk is not enough to deal with the power bureaucracy. What is needed is a calmer, more methodical approach to reform the incentive structure that makes the bureaucracy tick.

Her replacement is Younus Dagha, a relatively newer face at the top. Mr Dagha belongs to the DMG group from 1985 and has spent most of his career in service to the provincial government of Sindh.

His work in the federal government is only a few years old, and most it is far removed from the type of posts around which powerful politics revolve. But Mr Dagha has a reputation as a man who gets things done without getting his hands dirty. The road ahead for him is treacherous, and his relative inexperience in dealing with high-pressure posts in close proximity to political power could be as much of an asset as a liability. Tackling political pressure, the intrigues of the power bureaucracy and pressure from the IPPs may well take its usual toll.

As an example, consider how Minister for Water and Power Khawaja Asif recently embarrassed himself and a number of others by announcing that Nepra, the supposedly independent regulator, had rejected a petition filed by the PTI even before Nepra had said anything about the matter. The Nepra chief, who happens to be related to the minister, was put in the position of having to deny that a decision had been made on that petition. Khawaja Asif`s announcement served to reinforce the impression held by many that family ties between the minister and the regulator`s chief had led the latter to subordinate his professional obligations to the political priorities of the minister. It remains to be seen how Mr Dagha will respond to this sort of pressure, especially considering he has a track record of not obliging political interference. To be successful, he will need to keep politics at bay, not become overconfident, and chart out a methodical and deliberate path of reform. No doubt this is a daunting job, but perhaps the best bet is to entrust it to a new face.

Ebola danger

THE level of panic that has ensued in several developed countries regarding the threat of Ebola there is perhaps unnecessary given that they are well equipped to contain the virus. But what the dreaded disease has wrought in the poor countries of western Africa is horrifying, with nearly 4,500 people dead and already stressed healthcare infrastructures brought to the point of collapse. Unfortunately, several developing countries are too sanguine about the risk. Consider the case of Pakistan: we have a far from adequate healthcare infrastructure one that is plagued by inefficiencies, mismanagement and resource and manpower shortages. It has not kept pace with the needs of a burgeoning and increasingly poor population, and even basics such as maternal and child health are not covered. The medical needs of millions of people go unmet, and hundreds of thousands of people die of preventable illnesses. Were something like the Ebola virus to strike here, the outcome would be nothing short of catastrophic, especially in view of the high population and urban density rates.

It is not that the government is not alive to the danger, but that the protective measures being talked about are far from sufficient and certainly far from showing the sort of urgency that is warranted.

On Friday, it was announced that a counter had been set up at the Islamabad airport to screen travellers from western Africa, and bureaucratic moves such as appointing focal persons, etc, had been taken. But what about the country`s other international airports? What about travellers entering through the ports and land borders? What about the fact that although international passengers already fill out a health card, these cards are rarely if ever scanned and can usually be found littering the premises? The state`s utter inability to enforce even its own decisions in terms of healthcare can be gauged from the promises made about polio. Of ficialdom claimed to have set up mechanisms at airports to screen out passengers without vaccination certificates, but in reality thousands of people are travelling unchecked. As with polio, the introduction of Ebola is a risk Pakistan can simply not afford to take. It seems to be failing in the former case; will it be the same with the latter?

Woes of journalists

IT is a sad reflection on a country when those who are at the vanguard of all popular causes are found struggling to secure a few basics for themselves. Journalists in Pakistan have been demanding protection and investigation of cases of violence against them. Worse, they have been forced to call for payment of compensation to the families of journalists killed in pursuance of their work. There has been little of ficial response to these demands.

One of the most dangerous places for journalists anywhere, Pakistan is regretfully also characterised by apathy on the part of those in power. Estimates show more than 40 journalists have been killed in conflict-ridden Balochistan alone over the last five years. And there have been instances elsewhere in which media persons have been targeted. But nothing has emerged to suggest that the authorities are alarmed. Instead, journalists continue to be exposed to ever greater danger in the presence of a state that is unable to offer much in terms of protection and because of cut-throat competition among their employers.

Journalists in Pakistan have to thus fight on many fronts. They are up against the perpetrators of violence, they are striving to make the state wake up to its responsibility of providing security and they have to evolve a professional scheme that allows them to carry out their duties with minimum risk. There has been some effort towards these ends but no real results. Lately, journalists have managed to get the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly to write to the prime minister, urging the government to give compensation to the families of Balochistan-based journalists who have died in targeted killings. Also, the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists on Friday launched a weeklong black ribbon campaign against some recent killings. This is strong enough protest for anyone inclined to listen but it can be made more potent by the inclusion of a greater number of journalists. The groupings in the ranks are harming the cause which is common to all journalists.