Well done, Pakistan!

January 29th, 2012

Fans of Pakistan cricket may need to be given a collective prescription for heart medicine. For as long as our team is on the pitch, we can never rest easy. For three and a half days of the second Test match against England in Abu Dhabi we were outclassed by a team that is relentless, packed with great players and high on confidence. Then in two glorious hours our spinners Abdur Rehman and Saeed Ajmal turned it out, bowling England out for 72 and taking us to a victory that is improbable even by the scarcely believable standards Pakistan cricket has set for last-gasp wins. Supporting the Pakistan cricket team can be a thankless task, with inexplicable defeats, nasty in-fighting, match fixing and assorted other dramas driving us to fury. But ultimately it is all worth it for moments like these.

Here’s something to keep in mind. Pakistan’s two best bowlers, indeed possibly the two best bowlers in the world at present, were not on the pitch because they were serving out a jail sentence. We were up against the number one ranked Test team in the world and somehow outwitted them in the most glorious way possible. Their captain is a veteran of over 10 years; ours is mocked by his own countrymen just because we aren’t sufficiently entertained by him. We may be unreasonably demanding fans but Misbah-ul-Haq now deserves to be elevated to the pantheon of great Pakistani captains. It was his batting, derided as boring, that kept us in the game in the first innings and it is his imposition of his personality on the team that has made us such a consistently winning team. It is time to bury the hatchet and embrace Misbah.

Beating England always has an added edge, not just because of our colonised past, but because of the bitterness that has always accompanied series between the two countries. This series, thankfully, has been played in good spirit and without incident. No accusations of ball tampering, match fixing and shoddy umpiring can take away from our dominance of England. This was a special win for us, more so because of the tribulations of the last year. Pakistan cricket is back and the international cricketing scene has become a lot more interesting because of it.

A diet of eaten words

January 29th, 2012

In a not-very-convincing reinterpretation of what he had said earlier, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said this past week that “his remarks about replies filed in the Supreme Court in the memo case were not against the army chief and the director general of the ISI”. He had actually told a Chinese daily — while the Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was visiting China — that the two affidavits submitted to the Supreme Court by Generals Kayani and Pasha were violative of the Constitution. He now pleads “different context”, “unique situation” and “lack of clarity”.

The prime minister now blames some functionaries: “Later when we found out some of the discrepancies made by certain functionaries, I have taken action against them; now it does not pertain to those remarks unconstitutional or against the rules for the army chief and the ISI director general.” He revealed that things had returned to normal after clarity dawned on him and he became aware that all institutions of the state had to be “on the same page”.

It is clear that after a ‘comprehensive meeting’ with the army leadership that there is a patch-up between him and the GHQ, most probably on the basis of Mr Gilani offering his mea culpa and the army chief reconciling to working with his government for the time being. Mr Gilani had earlier practised this verbal flexibility at the Supreme Court after being called in for contempt. His latest kowtow to the army has taken place after the latter issued a veiled threat through an ISPR statement and after an agreement with the army chief that he would retract his words.

People around the prime minister say he has reached a fresh accord with the army over the crisis brewing around the memogate case at the Supreme Court. Although the case has run into difficulties after the refusal of the star witness, Mansoor Ijaz, to present himself to the judicial commission probing the affair, the ‘acceptance’ by the army of the prime minister’s retraction may not indicate a compact to let the case wither on the vine, as it were. Yet, there are signs that the case may be losing steam on account of an increasingly negative public image of Mr Ijaz in Pakistan and his tendency to choose his enemies indiscriminately.

The case is against Pakistan’s ex-ambassador Husain Haqqani who has been accused of trying to vilify the army — which is deemed an attack on Pakistan’s security and human rights — but the man who will prove it at the Supreme Court with the help of evidence uncovered by the ISI has also vilified the army in no uncertain terms. The defence for Mr Haqqani will ironically challenge him on his own efforts at destabilising Pakistan by demonising the same army. The grilling he is faced with will also emphasise the past occasions when he has campaigned against Pakistan and even conspired to bring down governments in Islamabad.

However, after the prime minister’s retraction, one fact has been highlighted as never before in the past: the military has a de facto dominance in the state that goes against the spirit of the Constitution and prevents civilian responses to foreign policy problems that crop up at regional and global levels. All politicians and the Supreme Court know that foreign policy and security-related matters are controlled by the military establishment and have stayed outside the remit of the successive governments. The military can even reject foreign assistance if it thinks it against its interest, though it probably knows that that will hurt the economy.

This de facto domination is nonetheless endorsed by opposition parties wishing to bring the incumbent government under pressure to cause its premature fall, and the judiciary which will not use its suo motu powers to call the army to heel. (The famous Asghar Khan case against the ISI has come up after being filed 15 years ago.) The present military leadership has praiseworthily abstained from staging a ‘bloodless’ coup in the midst of sweetmeat-distributing civilian opposition, but it knows that Pakistani nationalism continues to endorse its supremacy and will continue to make errant prime ministers eat their words.

Killing many birds with one stone

January 30th, 2012

At the ‘Islam Zindabad Conference’ held at the Bagh-e-Quaid in Karachi on January 27, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of his faction of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, attempted a breakthrough on the basis of ‘madrassa power’ of the Deobandis in Karachi. If he succeeds he could, with an eye on the coming election, hurt the ANP which considers itself the sole representative of the city’s large Pashtun community, and also challenge the more established religious party of Karachi, the Jamaat-e-Islami. Interestingly, the MQM decided to hold a rally in the city of Sukkur, presumably as a challenge to the nationalists. It must be secretly happy over the JUI-F making inroads into Karachi with the potential to divide the Pashtun vote in the local bodies polls — whenever they taken place. The parties that will be diminished after these two simultaneous rallies are the ANP and the PPP, the latter already suffering from the Zulfiqar Mirza factor.

The strength of the JUI-F is derived from hundreds of madrassas in Karachi, most of them Deobandi, some dating from Partition when some of the most celebrated Indian Muslim scholars relocated to Karachi. But the real fillip to the power of the Deobandis came from the historically large shifting of the Pashtun population to Karachi from the Tribal Areas of Pakistan and from Afghanistan. The Jamaat-e-Islami, which was once the dominant religious party in Karachi, suffered a decline in its strength because it was not ethnically Pashtun-based and because the south Punjabi seminarians from where pupils migrated to Karachi, were from an area where the Barelvis had lost out to the Deobandis (and many formed jihadi outfits), under the tutelage of a state looking for non-state actors.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman is far more politically savvy than leaders of other religious parties. In Karachi, he was not his moderate self but hardline and threatening in tone. His audience was fired up by his pledge to make Pakistan “truly Islamic”. More than in Islamabad, he emphasised the Taliban-like vision of a Pakistan under true Sharia after eliminating modern banking based on ‘riba’. He spoke on the subject of Pakistan’s “slavery” to America more vehemently than he would in Islamabad with an eye the strong Taliban and al Qaeda presence in Karachi. Seminarians from as far apart as Clifton and Korangi (two geographically and socially disparate neighbourhoods of the city) said in unison: “We don’t want any secular and liberal party to rule Pakistan.”

Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s aggression has been learned over time, starting from Lal Masjid where he followed his normal instincts to take a moderate line — only to be nearly manhandled in Multan at a major gathering of pro-Taliban clerics — and ending with a national consensus against America and its western allies. It is only fair that he should dispense with his dependency on the Jamaat in Karachi and challenge the ANP. Clearly, the rally put paid to the possibility of Mutahadda Majlis-e-Amal ever being revived.

The rally killed three fat birds with one stone: the ANP, the Jamaat, and, tangentially, the PPP. The MQM rally at Sukkur apparently hit out at the nationalists who recently raised such a stink together with the PPP over Altaf Hussain’s campaign in favour of more provinces in the country, but his familiar assault on the feudalism of Sindh was purely for the chastening of the PPP. Interestingly, the JUI-F line chastising “secularists” and “liberals” was aimed jointly at the PPP and the MQM. Among Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s many faces, one is defending the PPP against the Supreme Court in Islamabad, the other encouraging the PML-N to show muscle realistically on the issue of an early general election. He is perceived as harmless enough by the big parties to be used as a go-between. But his act of leaving the ruling coalition was the best gesture he could make to the Taliban and al Qaeda on the eve of America’s departure from the region and during a period of drift caused by Pakistan Army’s incoherent post-withdrawal Afghan policy.

Attack on the PMA

January 30th, 2012

If there is one thing the military should have learned from the embarrassment of having Osama bin Laden hiding in plain sight — just a few hundred metres from the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) — it is that they should at least, have some knowledge around areas with a military presence. That lesson has obviously eluded the military. In a daring predawn rocket attack, targeted at the PMA on January 27, militants were able to fire nine rockets at it before escaping. One person has been arrested but the authorities, obviously, seem to have little clue of the identity of the attackers. Instead, they are reduced to theorising and speculating that it may have been a revenge attack by al Qaeda, as one of its leaders, Aslam Awan who is originally from Abbottabad, was recently killed in a drone attack.

What is truly alarming is how militants seem to be easily able to attack military assets at will. Last year, it was the raid on PNS Mehran in Karachi, where authorities still do not know how the militants were able to enter and occupy the naval base for such a long time. Before that, even GHQ has been successfully attacked, as has a police academy near Lahore. The fact is that whatever the military’s definition of foolproof security, it is clearly not enough. In fact the kind of security they have is somewhat uselesss.

This attack also serves as a reminder that the militants are at war with the state of Pakistan. This is a war they have declared and waged but we need to be ready to fight back at all times. Negotiations, as we have seen before, are not a solution. They simply allow militants to regroup and then strike back more violently than before. Over the last few months, there has been a decline in militant attacks in the country. We should hope that this is because the militants have been weakened. And instead of allowing them to strengthen by giving them a breather, the military needs to ensure that they eliminate these militant groups altogether.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Saving Balochistan

January 31st, 2012

The failure to adhere to Article 9 of the Constitution — which refers to the right of every citizen to life and liberty — in Balochistan is all too evident and has created a state of crisis in the province. Furthermore, the situation is worsening with every passing year. The fact that this has been taken up by the Supreme Court as an urgent matter is welcome, though there may be some Baloch who may think that it has taken the apex court long to do this.

Significantly, the three-member SC bench hearing a petition moved by a former president of the Balochistan High Court Association has sought detailed reports on missing persons in the province from the ISI and the MI. The key to the matter may lie here. Human rights monitoring groups have alleged that such agencies are behind the atrocities in Balochistan — where women lament the disappearance of brothers, sons or husbands, and mutilated, tortured bodies turn up regularly at street corners across the province. The key issue, of course, is that looking back through our history, it has been impossible to bring such agencies to account; from behind the shelter of their secret worlds they seem able to do as they please, without any questions being asked or any real pressure on them to justify their actions. It will be interesting to see if the SC bench headed by the chief justice can alter this reality and draw out some kind of confessions as to where these persons really are and who detains them illegally. According to the petition, some 5,000 persons are missing in Balochistan. This is no small number; things simply cannot continue in this fashion.

The IB and the government of Balochistan have already submitted reports, with the court already rejecting the one submitted by the IB. It is to be seen if the agencies controlled essentially by the military do the same. The SC has also summoned the attorney-general to the next hearing and asked why the federal or provincial governments are doing nothing. We certainly need to know and also establish a tradition of accountability for all agencies which operate in our country. Let us see if this can happen as this important case proceeds.

A thaw in Pak-Afghan ties?

January 31st, 2012

Rare is the occasion where the Pakistan and Afghanistan governments both feel that their interests are coinciding. After a period, following the assassination of Afghan peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani in September, the historically-poor relations between the two countries reached an all-time low after Kabul blamed Pakistan for the murder. But now it seems like there is an opportunity for a short-term détente, and for this it seems as though the US is to be thanked. In preparation for the start of its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan later this year, the US has begun holding negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar but has declined to give Pakistan and Afghanistan a significant role in the talks. This has forced the two countries closer and Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar will be travelling to Kabul where, among other things, the two sides will decide to conduct their own peace talks with the Taliban.

This small breakthrough, however, does not change the fact that the Pak-Afghan relationship is hampered by much mistrust. For genuinely good relations to be achieved between the two countries, the first thing Pakistan must do is to set aside its obsession with India. So troubled have we been by the idea that India will be getting a foothold in Afghanistan through its embassies and investments, that we have forgotten that we could have had similar influence had we built as many roads and factories in the war-torn country. Relations will only change once Pakistan treats it as an equal power that does not exist solely to fulfil our regional ambitions. And it should use Afghanistan’s current rift with the US to do just that. If we don’t play our cards right we could end up isolated in the region. Improving relations with Karzai may be our best bet right now since, once the US withdraws, it is sure to lose interest in the region. This, of course, means rethinking much of our Afghan policy and in particular the flawed concept of ‘strategic depth’.

Medicine crisis: who is to blame?

January 31st, 2012

As more patients continue to die after consuming medicines given out by the Punjab Institute of Cardiology, things have been prevented from growing more chaotic as a strike by the Young Doctor’s Association (YDA) was called off, following successful talks with the Punjab Health Department. The doctors has struck after the Medical Superintendant (MS) of the concerned cardiac centre, was suspended and later arrested by the FIA — on the orders of Interior Minister Rehman Malik, and ended their protest after he was released . The protest would, of course, have meant more misery for patients who are in no way responsible for the crisis or the events that brought it about, with the death toll now standing at 112.

The YDA holds, with some logic, that the Punjab government— and not hospital heads — are responsible for ensuring the quality of medicines manufactured and provided to health institutes. The Pakistan Medical Association had also demanded the release of the arrested MS and threatened to call a countrywide strike if this did not happen. Successful talks have averted catastrophe; this obviously is good news. But it does not change the fact that what has happened is terrible. The deaths should never have occurred. But suspending or jailing doctors will not help, especially as there is no evidence of foul play on their part. As the testing of suspect drugs continues, there appears to be some doubt over the control of drug manufacturing following the devolution of health to the provinces. The prime minister has said that unlike the other three provinces, Punjab has declined to set up a drug control authority of its own. This matter needs to be looked into. We also wonder if the holding of multiple portfolios by the provincial chief minister, including health, is affecting performance. There is, after all, a limit to how much one man can do. Rather than making arrests, it is these issues that need to be explored, to ensure that a tragedy of this kind, or the events that have followed it, never occur again.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

The fizzling out of memogate

February 1st, 2012

A controversy that started with such fanfare has limped to a stalemate, making everyone wonder what all the fuss was about in the first place. Of course, the flip side of this argument is that all the parties seem to have been let-off quite lightly and perhaps, that is one reason why they aren’t taking much of an interest in it. The memogate controversy started to peter out when American businessman, Mansoor Ijaz refused to travel to Pakistan to testify in front of a judicial commission and a parliamentary committee. It is now, all but dead, after Husain Haqqani — the main protagonist of the drama — was finally allowed to leave the country. Not only did memogate consume our body politic for many weeks, it may have snatched from the country one of its most able diplomats.

While the controversy was playing out, it seemed as if memogate may ultimately be responsible for a seismic shift in relations between the civilians and the military. All that remained to be seen was which direction the balance of power would shift. Ultimately that shift failed to materialise although for once, the civilians were actually able to look the military leadership in the eye and not cower. In Pakistan, that represents progress of a kind. And while just about everyone came out of the memogate controversy having sullied their reputations, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani ended up smelling of roses. He cast-off the image of a timid yes-man who would simply drift along with the political winds. He fired the military-approved defence secretary and he lashed out against the army and the ISI chiefs and vowed that they wouldn’t be given any further extensions. There may have been no concrete shift in the military-civilian dynamic but at least there was a rhetorical shift.

A succession of Supreme Court rulings against the government led many to believe that the Court may have revealed itself to be more sympathetic to the military rather than the civilians. The judicial commission it set up to investigate the memogate issue more thoroughly, is still in place but without Haqqani and Ijaz in the country, it looks as if it will be impossible for it to come up with a credible judgment. Hopefully, this means that the government can breathe easy and serve out its term without the hindrance of ginned-up controversies.

The truth behind madrassas

February 1st, 2012

According to a report in this newspaper, a madrassa based on the outskirts of Lahore has been placed under close intelligence scrutiny. The reasons given mention presence of a number of foreigners at the institute, including 30 from Afghanistan and three from Burma. Nearly 500 of the other pupils are said to be from outside Punjab, mainly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There may be other reasons to suspect what is happening at the seminary. What is welcome is that the intelligence authorities appear to have take some notice of the unusual make-up of students at the premises.

This, of course, is just one madrassa. We do not know how many others may be running with the purpose of pursuing a particular jihadi or militant ideology. It is known that tens of thousands of seminaries operate across the country; their number continues to increase as poverty and the desperation of parents rise. It is true, as Maulana Fazlur Rehman stated recently during a rally in Karachi that not all these madrassas are responsible for spreading terrorism. But the point is that a very large number promotes an extremist mindset that feeds in to the thinking of groups such as the Taliban. It is for this reason that we need to keep a very close eye on seminaries operating in cities and towns across our country. In some ways, it is ironic that the JUI-F chief, who had so fervently defended madrassas, is the patron-in-chief of the institution which has now been placed under watch.

It is also ironic that this seminary, based in the Raiwind area, as we are told is affiliated with the Wafaqul Madaris. One would have thought that the central body regulating madrassas would adopt more caution in those it chooses to register. The situation leaves open the question of what is happening at the majority of madrassas which are unregulated and unrecorded in any way. Pakistan has come to be seen as a world centre of militant training. Somehow, for the sake of our country, we need to change this image.

Attack on mobile phone franchise

February 1st, 2012

A third attack on a cell phone franchise in just two months — this time the target was a Telenor franchise in Nazimabad, Karachi, which killed two people — signals a shift in tactics by those behind them. Allegedly the Taliban, they are now using terrorism as an accompaniment to extortion. After the two earlier attacks, one at a Telenor franchise in December 2011 and the other at a Mobilink franchise in January of this year, it seemed the attacks would finally end, after police claimed to have killed the mastermind. He was, the police said, a member of the Taliban and was demanding millions of rupees in extortion money. Now, it turns out the plot against cell phone franchises involved more than just one person.

From a law enforcement point of view, the police are almost helpless at stopping such localised attacks. While one of the attackers is reported to have been arrested in this attack, there are thousands of cell phone franchises in the city and beyond keeping an armed guard or two on duty, there is very little that can be done to protect them. The only possible solution seemed to be to target those behind the attacks before they could strike again, but with the Taliban’s involvement now seemingly confirmed, that would require breaking the back of a determined militant group. Such an effort would require not just authorities in Karachi but the entire country to pool their intelligence and law enforcement capabilities. Previously, it had been known that the Taliban was using bank robberies and kidnappings for ransom to fund their militant activities. The attacks on cell phone franchises are a more dangerous extension of that tactic. Citizens will now feel hesitant going to public places as the militants have shown that they can strike anywhere at any time. There is no way for the police to secure every cell phone franchise in the city. So, as long as these attacks continue, fear will pervade. These attacks may not be as spectacular as previous Taliban attacks but they cause no less fear.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

An inevitable increase

February 2nd, 2012

The government’s decision to raise the price of petroleum products and add a 10 per cent infrastructure development cess on CNG, coupled with LPG producers, also increasing their prices, is sure to lead to strikes and protests. Given that prices have not kept up with inflation, this anger is understandable. But it is also counter-effective. As an importer of oil, there is little that the government can do when international prices keep rising, as it did recently after tensions between the US and Iran over the vital Straits of Hormuz. Foreign exchange reserves are low and it is not possible for the government to keep on subsidising oil imports.

Pakistan finds itself in a bind also because prices of most products we need to import have increased, while the prices of our main exports have plunged. The government has failed in attracting greater foreign direct investment and rebuilding ties with our international creditors. Our economy is dependent on IMF loans to keep it afloat and if we think we can do without international assistance, then a far greater burden is going to fall on consumers in the country. Our own nascent energy industry needs foreign help but cases like that of the Reqo Diq project, which was handed over to the Balochistan government despite agreements being inked with foreign investors, will not do anything to inspire confidence. Add to that, the precarious law and order situation and we are forced to rely on expensive imports. The government, meanwhile, has rarely been able to come up with solutions that go beyond the superficial. Every few months, the government suggests instituting daylight saving hours and two-day weekends, measures that do little more than apply a band-aid to a diseased arm. Reducing the demand for petroleum products may be impossible which is why we need to work with our neighbours to build gas pipelines while at the same time continuing to carry out exploration for gas fields in our own country. Until then, it is a sad reality that we will continue to see increases in the price of petroleum products.

Sentenced to die

February 2nd, 2012

Even though scores of people have been handed down a verdict of the death penalty for violating the country’s blasphemy laws, not a single person has been executed by the state for the offense yet. This is because almost all cases heard under the blasphemy laws are based on evidence that is by no means incontrovertible, usually target the weak in society and almost always have an ulterior motive. Such seems to be the case with Sufi Mohammad Ishaq, a cleric living in the US who returned to Punjab in 2009. He was made the custodian of a shrine and was apparently very popular among his followers. It was this popularity that led him to be convicted, as some felt that his disciples bowing down before him, constituted an offense under the blasphemy laws. As with many blasphemy cases, this appears to be a dispute over property. Other clerics in the area were angry that this man, who had just come back from the US was given custody of a shrine. Registering a blasphemy case against him was perhaps the easiest way to wrest control of the shrine. The judge may already have signed the man’s death warrant. Just being accused or convicted of blasphemy is enough for vigilante mobs or rogue policemen to take matters into their own hands.

Even now, Aasia bibi, the poor Christian woman accused of blasphemy, is languishing in jail and forced to cook her own food in the fear that prison cooks may poison her. This is why simply reforming the laws will not work. As long as a society is prepared to use violence against those accused of blasphemy even when it hasn’t been proven, such laws can create serious problems. They provide mobs with the legal rationale to attack the most vulnerable among us, to steal their property and, ultimately, to kill them. The police are often, at worst, active participants and at best, disinterested bystanders. All the odds are already stacked against those wrongly accused of blasphemy. The blasphemy laws only make it harder for them.

A rudderless ship

February 2nd, 2012

It has now become a depressing routine for the few in the country who still care enough about the economy to follow it. The State Bank of Pakistan’s report on the state of the economy during the first quarter of the current fiscal year paints a dismal picture, even with the optimistic numbers that suggest an improvement over the previous year. The problem is not the figures themselves. Inflation is headed lower and will likely stay below the target of 12 per cent. While economic growth is sluggish, the government’s revenue collection has seen robust growth of about 27 per cent, suggesting that the budget deficit may not be as bad as last year. And the current account deficit remains under control, though the rupee has declined by around six per cent since last year.

No, the real problem is the fact that the government has neither the desire nor the courage to introduce the systemic reforms necessary to get the economy back on track. And therein lies the problem: while the entire country seems to be abuzz about memos and who said what to whom in the halls of power, it appears that the business of actually governing this country has been all but completely ignored. Every single one of the numbers that improved was due not to the government’s efforts but simply because they got lucky. Inflation, for instance is declining because food prices have not risen as sharply as expected, largely due to better than expected crops and stable international prices. And, as the State Bank points out in its report, revenue growth was stellar not because of anything the government did but because of the customs duties paid on higher levels of imports.

What is depressing about this government is that it knows exactly what needs to be done, but is either too distracted or does not care enough to implement what are often highly sensible — if somewhat politically difficult — plans. Part of this is a problem in the media: far too many of its practitioners do not understand the economy and are thus susceptible to sensationalism, which in turn reduces the political space for the government to act. But ultimately, it is the responsibility of the government itself to sell its economic plan. That it has not done so is a political failure on the part of the government. They have done well to survive other challenges. Now how about a little bit of governing?

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Held in contempt

February 3rd, 2012

As the extraordinary soap opera that is Pakistan’s politics continues, we have a new moment of high drama. In a unique situation, a sitting prime minister has been indicted by the Supreme Court in the contempt of court case against him.

The case, of course, stems from the failure of the government to write a letter to Swiss authorities requesting a reopening of cases, following the striking down of General Pervez Musharraf controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) by the apex court. The arguments of Mr Gilani’s counsel, Aitzaz Ahsan, that he was not an entirely free actor in this matter and needed to follow the advice of the Law Ministry and Human Rights Division was given short shrift by the nine-member bench, which had asked why the PM had failed to follow the advice of the courts in the first place.

This decision, of course, brings the NRO affair to a head. The prime minister has now been asked to appear before the court on February 13 for the framing of charges. This could be another moment of drama. But the relatively long time period set suggests that the court believes the government may be able to put up a case and that, for now, not all is settled. The new summary presented by Aitzaz, stating that no cases exist in Switzerland against the prime minister or the president following the NRO also raises some issues, while the counsel has also mentioned the possibility of filing an intra-court appeal.

What is most important at this juncture is to keep things simple; to do the ‘right’ thing, show restraint and follow the law. The law of our land is quite clearly written out in the Constitution — which sets out in clear terms the role of institutions. These roles need to be adhered to if we are to avoid anarchy. The period of 10 days set by the court should also allow the government some time to think, reflect on all that has happened and accept that the letter to the Swiss authorities must, indeed, be written if we are to see order and the continued functioning of a democracy which must move on despite the bumps it encounters along the way. That all said, one can’t help but wonder why the superior courts never held any military dictator in contempt of the Constitution.

Some clarity on drones

February 3rd, 2012

US President Barack Obama’s admission that he has authorised drone attacks in Pakistan came at an unlikely venue — an online chat the president was conducting on Google Plus. Thus, the American stance on drones in Pakistan has been a cloying refusal to admit they know anything about the attack. This is because the US has not declared war on Pakistan and so the use of Predator drones is, at best, of dubious legality. Now that Obama finally appears willing to discuss the drones programme, there are plenty of questions he needs to answer. The most important is, whether the drone attacks are carried out with Pakistan’s permission. We found out through WikiLeaks that in the past, Pakistan had given its assent, yet it still accuses the US of violating its sovereignty with the drone attacks. Both sides have said different things in public and private on this issue and now need to reconcile and explain these contradictions.

Another consequence of the official US silence on drone attacks in Fata has been a lack of reliable investigations. There is certainly some truth to their efficacy, as dozens of militant leaders have been eliminated by drones. But the US needs to acknowledge the issue of civilian casualties. It is hard to dismiss as collateral damage all the innocent lives lost due to drone attacks because it is these deaths that have made the drone programme so unpopular and may actually have ended up helping the militants recruit among locals in Fata. At a time when indigenous efforts are sorely needed to root out militants, the use of drones are counterproductive, if preferable to US soldiers on the ground. The unfortunate fact is that Obama’s one-sentence acknowledgment is likely the most transparency we’re going to get on the drones issue. In any case, it would be far better if the Pakistani military developed the capability to target the terrorists and militants that the US president claimed the drones are able to do far more effectively. Were that the case, perhaps we wouldn’t have to face this controversial issue at all.

Killings Inc.

February 3rd, 2012

The tit-for-tat killings that have plunged Balochistan into a never-ending cycle of violence and despair took an even more deadly turn with the murder of MPA Nawabzada Bakhtiar Khan Domki’s wife and daughter in Karachi, followed swiftly by the killing of 15 Frontier Corps (FC) personnel at checkposts near the Margat coal mine. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for killing the FC personnel but the Karachi killings remain shrouded in mystery. Karachi police believe that the killing of Domki’s wife and daughter may have been the result of a tribal feud but, given the situation in Balochistan, it seems far more likely that the intelligence agencies are behind the killings. Domki’s wife was the sister of exiled separatist leader Brahamdagh Bugti, and it is well within the bounds of reasonability to assume that the attack was part of a campaign to draw him out of Switzerland. In any case, the expected failure to swiftly investigate the murders in a manner that satisfies sceptics will only confirm the worst suspicions of the separatists.

With each new incident of violence, a political solution in Balochistan becomes even more unlikely. The most extreme forces on both sides are strengthened and all talk of compromise vanishes. If there is to be a de-escalation, the first steps must come from the state. At an absolute minimum, the ‘kill-and-dump’ policy needs to be abandoned and those behind it brought to book. After that, the government needs to get serious about reintegrating the province into the rest of the country by finally implementing its Balochistan package, which has been gathering dust for the last three years. Only then can we expect the BLA to renounce violence as a tactic and separatism as their goal. Even if the BLA isn’t interested in negotiation, good-faith measures by the government may allow other Baloch leaders to moderate their stance. The centre needs to stop treating Balochistan like a colony and save the federation.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Regulating medicines

February 4th, 2012

The discovery that the heart medication Isotab — manufactured by a Karachi-based company — was contaminated and had been responsible for dozens of deaths has caused understandable alarm amongst the public. Yet, we feel that had this crisis been managed better, much of what may soon become the economic fallout could have been avoided. The pharmaceutical industry in Pakistan is small, but growing at a healthy pace and even beginning to export some of its products now. The last thing they needed was a panic like this one. There had been rumours of cancelled export orders and countries reconsidering allowing Pakistani pharmaceutical exports into their markets. Pakistan’s reputation as a producer of reliable drugs is at stake. One bad batch of medicines does not mean that the whole industry is not worth saving and protecting. If we allow the present discourse to devolve into finger-pointing, we could potentially ruin what could be a strong export revenue generator for Pakistan. Each of the protagonists could have acted better. The pharmaceutical company which is now under scrutiny should have acted faster in determining what the problem was and should have recalled the entire stock of the drug as a gesture of proactive goodwill. In the pharmaceutical business, credibility is everything and worth paying for to protect. Meanwhile, the federal and Punjab governments should have acted more responsibly, instead of engaging in a blame game. They should have acted in concert to help prevent the further dissemination of the contaminated drugs.

The fact is that pharmaceutical manufacturing is a dangerous business. Accidents can and do happen and mistakes can and will be made. The most effective response is to be able to quickly determine exactly what went wrong in the manufacturing process or supply chain and fix it. This process requires the collaboration of both the manufacturer and the regulators. The US and the EU are generally good examples of this. There, incidents such as these, but on a smaller scale, have happened, but the industry wasn’t shut down. Rather, the government stepped in and helped out because the idea is not to kill the industry but to make it work and become a provider of safe and affordable medicines.

A court verdict in India

February 4th, 2012

An activist Supreme Court is something to be both welcomed and feared, as India is now finding out. At its best, judges who work in the public interest are keeping the government in check and ensuring it follows the letter of the law. But a Supreme Court which overturns legislation or cancels government contracts can also cause a great deal of disruption. The Indian Supreme Court’s decision to cancel 122 mobile licences issued four years ago, falls firmly in the latter category. Although the underlying justification — that the telecom minister did not follow the regulatory body’s guidelines in issuing the licences — is sound, the ruling could cause untold chaos for India’s mobile phone subscribers. Nearly 50 million users will either have to quickly switch their services or they will be without a carrier. The other networks will also have to instantly upgrade their services to be in a position to handle the expected new traffic. What is most likely is that they will pass this cost on to the consumers, leading to a steep hike in prices. Those companies which have now lost their licences and want to re-enter the market will have to rebid for contracts, essentially ending up paying twice to provide the same service.

The aim of the judges should have been to punish the government for not working within the regulatory framework rather than going after companies whose only crime was to work with the government. Fines and jail time for government officials would have been far more appropriate and wouldn’t have placed the mobile phone industry in such peril. India has built its economy, in part, by painting itself as investor-friendly, especially to those in the technology sector. With one ruling, the Supreme Court may have reversed years of progress (one major mobile operator, Norwegian company Telenor, is considering pulling out of India altogether). Winning investor confidence back could be an uphill task for the government, notwithstanding India’s sound macroeconomic indicators.

The talent game

February 4th, 2012

We come across extraordinary sights in our country virtually everywhere we go. The sad fact is that we do not realise what these could mean for our nation. Today, we struggle to gain respect and a standing in the international community, along with having to fight the menace of terrorism. On several occasions, we see young boys in the country engaging in extraordinary feats of gymnastics at open grounds — especially the one that stands around the Minar-e-Pakistan. Without training, without equipment, in their bare feet and shalwar kameez, these youngsters perform skills one would normally acquire after years of practice and training. It makes one wonder what levels these children could achieve if constructive efforts were made to nurture their natural ability. The same holds true for the young cricketers playing on the streets. Growing up in an environment where nepotism and connections prove beneficial, these children may never discover the true potential of their abilities. In the northern parts of our country, there are schoolboys and girls who regularly walk several miles down steep hillsides and then back up again. If we peep into books on athletic history, we will find that what these children do as a matter of routine is precisely what Kenyan or Ethiopian children did in the 70s and 80s, and later gained fame as world-class athletes. The difference is that the potential of the latter naturally-trained runners was recognised and nurtured in their respective countries.

There is no reason why we in Pakistan cannot follow a similar route. Rather than wait for the sporadic talent to spring up on its own, providing institutes to hone the natural abilities of these children could provide them with direction and opportunity, resulting in honours for our country. This will grant Pakistan respect and move the focus away from ideas of extremism, hatred and intolerance that are typically associated with it.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Back on track

February 5th, 2012

At last, some kind of effort seems to have been made to salvage what little remains of Pakistan Railways. The first luxury ‘business train’ to run between Lahore and Karachi, a private-public sector venture, was inaugurated by the prime minister, as it tooted off on its scheduled time of 3:30 pm from the Lahore Railway Station on February 3, cheered on by people collected at the tinsel-decorated platform. The train was schedule to reach the Karachi station in 18 hours. The service is to run simultaneously between Lahore and Karachi, with trains departing from both stations at 3:30 pm daily. Along the way, passengers paying Rs5,000 for a one-way ride will be able to enjoy flat screen TVs, wifi access, top-notch dining facilities and other mod cons which rival those seen anywhere in the world.

The private company MS Four Brothers, which entered into a deal with Pakistan Railways last year, has made a Rs225 million investment in the project and will pay Rs1.5 million per trip. This should help the disastrously cash-strapped entity gain some capital to help keep it afloat. Much depends, of course, on how successful the service is, and how efficiently it is run. In the past, experiments with ‘high quality’ trains — like the one which ran between Lahore and Rawalpindi — were made, but could not be sustained over the years due to mismanagement of resources and operational inefficiencies. The private interest involved this time round may help avoid this pitfall. Even so, there are still concerns regarding security and the quality of tracks and it is imperative that these potential gaps be overcome immediately for the venture to succeed. Undoubtedly, this is an exciting and highly useful venture for commuters in an age of soaring airfares. It is essential that it succeeds, given that it may represent the last hope to salvage Pakistan Railways, which over the past few years has —quite literally — been falling apart. The new service may just offer it a ray of hope, allowing it to scramble back onto the track from which it has effectively been derailed.

The politics of oil price hikes

February 5th, 2012

The latest rise in the price of petroleum and gas products has caused predictable upheaval inside and outside the government. The opposition has joined the media in condemning the government’s decision to pass on the differential to the consumers, leaning on it, to ask the government to go home or hold immediate elections. Members of the National Assembly across the floor have signed a resolution seeking withdrawal of the increase. ‘Expert’ discussants have pointed to economic mismanagement of the incumbent PPP-led government and thus served to make up the mind of the people, whom they expect to come out in the streets and use vandalism to make the government restore the old prices. Just as the enemies and partners of the PPP rebelled against it on the question of implementing the RGST (reformed general sales tax) to stay within the IMF’s programme, the PML-N and the MQM are now busy putting on the warpaint on their faces. Television discussions have broken new sound barriers questioning not only the act of passing on the new price to the poor people of Pakistan but also the entire market-guided capitalist system that seems to only multiply the sufferings of the common man. Whether we like it or not, this is the way economic problems, including those arising out of the changing prices of products in the international market, are confronted by the people and the media all over the world. In Europe, the sane advice of belt-tightening and spending-cuts in the time of stagnation are being rebuffed and politicians in power are having a hard time keeping their governments in place. In the US, President Barack Obama faces a bigger challenge from the recessionary American economy than from any potential Republican challenger. No surprise therefore that the opposition, the media and the PPP’s coalition partners are on the same page, calling on the government to take the new prices back and let the common man breathe easy. No one wants to talk about how the government will pay for the differential and where that money will come from and whether or not it will add to the widening fiscal deficit. The PML-N says it knows how to manage things in the face of international prices and wants a meeting of all parties to arrive at a collective decision on the matter. Anyone who is on the receiving end, including Federal Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh, knows what is going to follow: that if the government does eventually buckle, it will mean a further swelling of the oil and gas subsidy. Of course, it’s a different story that this usually comes at the expense of social sector development spending, which has been cut for the past two years.

There are no prizes for guessing what the opposition and rebellious coalition partners will propose: cut the spending programmes, including the Benazir Income Support Programme which is consuming billions of rupees and, in their view, is aimed at preserving the PPP vote rather than helping the poor — which it quite likely is. But this is not how the ‘market’ works in today’s world. A subsidy is a subsidy no matter where the money comes from, whether you simply print new notes or scrounge the money from other projects. India and even Iran, which is one of the world’s largest producers of oil, have ‘rationalised’ their prices already and the products may be reverse-directed after Pakistan’s ‘price control’.

International oil prices fluctuate and affect the entire world. However, where economies are growing at a robust rate, governments are able to absorb the resultant subsidy. This is what happened in India — still a high-growth state — till the deficit in the national budget climbed to an unacceptably high level and it decided to reduce the petrol subsidy and raises prices to levels that are higher than those in Pakistan (around Rs119 at the current exchange rate). The PPP is looking forward to elections and will be tempted to continue with the oil and gas subsidy, which will only mean more inflation since either more money will have to be printed, or the government will have to borrow to finance the widening fiscal deficit.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Well played, Pakistan

February 7th, 2012

Whoever is responsible for scripting the journey the Pakistan cricket team has taken over the last 18 months has a delicious sense of irony. Just a year-and-a-half back, Pakistan reached its lowest ebb after three of its cricketers were caught in a corruption scandal in England. It is only fitting that our redemption should come thanks to a 3-0 whitewash of the England team. Since the spot-fixing scandal Pakistan has yet to lose a Test series, starting off with some nervy draws before gradually gaining in confidence. Team Misbah has now handed a decisive defeat to the number one ranked Test side in the world, as comprehensive a rebuke to the doubters as could be imagined.

The best thing about this series victory is that, in a manner that is almost un-Pakistani in its unity, it cannot be attributed to any one individual. Going in, we knew that Saeed Ajmal would be the key to victory — and he was — but Abdur Rehman nearly stole the show, Umar Gul was the best fast bowler on display from either side, Younus Khan showed he is still a dependable batsman while Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq enhanced their reputations. Misbah, so reviled at home for his obdurate and slow batting, finally won over his doubters with his cool head when the chips were down. When the pressure was on, as it was on the last day of the second Test, it was England who crumbled. Yes, our fielding was still shoddy but that merely added a tone of familiarity to a performance that one would never associate with Pakistan.

There are still other foes to conquer for this Pakistan cricket team. We haven’t played India for a few years, and given their current woes, there may be no better time for a win. Ideally, Pakistan will also be rewarded for its perseverance in the face of adversity with the resumption of international cricket at home. An entire generation of Pakistani cricketers is missing out on the experience of playing in front of their home crowds. But that is a thought for another day. Right now it’s time to celebrate our remarkable resurgence.

Cylinder tragedy in Lahore

February 7th, 2012

With severe shortage of natural gas being encountered in Punjab, the use of gas-filled cylinders has become more and more common, both within homes and at places of work. After all, in houses and in factories, life has to be kept running one way or the other. It would appear then that it was the use of such a cylinder that caused a massive explosion on February 6, at a medicine factory on Multan Road in Lahore. Around 100 people are believed to be buried under the debris of the three-storey building, which has collapsed completely. A nearby house has also partially collapse. Rescue workers have succeeded in saving a handful of people, bringing at least six women and two children out from under the rubble — but as the images of the devastated building suggest, it seems certain the death toll will be a high one; even with the use of the modern equipment brought in by the 1122 rescue service, saving the victims appears to be an uphill task.

The precise nature of the incident is, of course, still being examined, though investigators seem convinced a gas cylinder triggered the blast. There have been accidents of similar nature before — in Lahore and elsewhere around the country. CNG kits in vehicles have caused other accidents, again claiming a high toll on lives. It seems quite evident that there is a need for better safety standards — both in the manufacture of cylinders and their use. Despite a ban, the hazardous process of refilling cylinders continues. And, of course, safety mechanisms installed within factories are virtually unknown, with even fire extinguishers being a rarity.

With more attention to safety — and greater value for human lives — it may be possible to avert a significant number of deaths and injuries. The real question to be asked is whether authorities have the will and the commitment required to go about this, both by regulating cylinder manufacture and safety conditions within factories. And if they do not demonstrate this will, then more unfortunate deaths in the future are inevitable.

Dealing with dyslexia

February 7th, 2012

At a few of the most affluent private schools across the country, teachers are being taught to deal with learning disorders like dyslexia — a complex condition that makes it hard for children to recognise or write letters, but in no way reflects on their basic intelligence. Other children suffer attention deficiency disorders of various kinds or other difficulties which affect the way they learn. The problem, of course, is that outside the walls of these few elite schools, the problems that can occur are little known about and extremely poorly understood. The vast majority of teachers — and parents — have never heard of these conditions or the impact they can have on learning and performance at schools, which is almost inevitably based on the ability to follow conventional teaching methods. The result is that children who stray even slightly outside this norm are defined as ‘stupid’ or ‘backward’, a label that could influence them for life and prevent them from reaching the potential that should be theirs. Of course, many people who are dyslexic have gone on to achieve much. The issue is that of a lack of awareness and also very limited diagnostic facilities.

As a result, in both government and primary schools everywhere, there must be tens of thousands of children who suffer. Until a few decades ago, the situation had been similar in many developed countries. This has now begun to change and expert teaching, in integrated classrooms, has helped such children move ahead. We can achieve the same; there are some societies and groups that deal with learning difficulties of all kinds. They need support from the government to develop a greater understanding about children whose minds may work a little differently, so that in schools everywhere they can be picked out, accepted as not being ‘dumb’ and provided the kind of help they need rather than being relegated on a permanent basis to the very last rows of the classroom, deprived of attention because they are deemed unable to learn.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Simply unbelievable

February 8th, 2012

There is nothing like the prospect of an upcoming election to suddenly make the impossible possible. Minister for Water and Power Naveed Qamar told the National Assembly that the country would be free of load-shedding from February 7, a claim that would be great news if there was any chance of it being true. Just because a minister of state wishes something to be true, however, is not enough to will it into existence. Nothing has happened in the recent past to suggest that we can immediately dispel our power shortages. If anything, our electricity crisis is more likely to worsen in the coming months.

We are currently facing an electricity shortage of over 8,000 MW, which will obviously lead to load-shedding, especially during the summer months. Previous water and power ministers have, like Qamar, promised that the days of load-shedding were over. Their predictions turned out to be full of hot air, as Qamar’s are likely to be. In the nearly five years since it has been in power, the PPP government has not been able to take any significant steps towards increased power generation. Funds have not been made available for the maintenance of the distribution network and to carry out much-needed renovation work on power plants, leading to increased generation and distribution losses.

There are some plans to increase power generation but their results will not manifest themselves overnight. Among the short-term projects currently in the pipeline, is a planned increase in the capacities of some plants in Punjab province, but none of them will be completed before the end of 2012 at the earliest. Meanwhile, even the electricity we do receive will only become more expensive. The international price of oil continues to rise and with tensions between the US and Iran over the vital Straits of Hormuz coming to a head, the upward trajectory will likely continue. Our supply of gas is also swiftly running out, leading to increased gas load-shedding in the country. Whatever solutions exist to these crises, they will take many years before having a demonstrable effect. Until then, the minister would be wise to explain the problems rather than simply pretend that they do not exist.

The dark side of cheap drugs

February 8th, 2012

The Punjab Institute of Cardiology (PIC) scandal is still unfolding after nearly a fortnight: the death toll is now around 140. Three hundred more people, admitted to various hospitals of Lahore, are threatened with death because they took adulterated medicines. All of them are heart patients who could not afford to buy their pills and leaned on the free drugs of the PIC to survive. Fifty of them are in a serious condition and are expected not to survive. The PIC had bought the drugs from a number of pharmacies who made their products presumably under licence from foreign manufacturers. One factory in Karachi was found to have issued the contaminated pills which killed the patients in Lahore. And this was discovered only after drug samples were sent to Europe for examination.

The politicians extracted a lot of mileage from this incident in the Punjab Assembly where our leaders took their discourse to the lowest level witnessed so far. The Punjab High Court took notice and set up a commission; the Supreme Court too wants to know what happened and why so many people — all of them poor and exposed — died. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Punjab Shahbaz Sharif has followed up with tough action, suspending officials and instituting inquiries against those who should have ensured the purity of the drugs in the province, despite the fact that authority in this regard is bifurcated between the province the federal government, making it easy to arouse passions on the basis of ‘conspiracy’ theories. Mercifully, so far, no one has named the US, India and Israel as the ‘real culprits’.

As if nature wanted to focus our mind on the real source of trouble, a veterinary drug factory in Lahore’s Multan Road area blew up after a gas leak, killing 14 people, including seven women and three children, with dozens crippled and trapped under the debris of a ramshackle building. At the time of writing nearly half the factory workers out of nearly 60 who had reported to work were still buried under the rubble.

What comes to the fore are a number of factors: 1) the compulsion of providing cheap drugs to an impoverished population; 2) governance that is shot through with corruption, regardless of how dangerous certain jurisdictions may become; 3) a poor lower judicial system where a stay order can be obtained against any serious violation of rules through graft; 4) a low-quality pharmaceutical industry run by non-experts looking to make a quick fortune; 5) poor quality of manpower; 6) the predominance of an illiterate population and its compulsion to find employment; 7) the tyranny of keeping the prices low to make them affordable by the poor, which compels the hiring of mazdoor workers rather than those trained in drugs manufacturing; and 8) a poor and ineffective drug inspection regime in an ambience of federal-province rivalry.

Most but not all drug factories employ illiterate labour who can’t read labels as they handle machines that mix and manufacture medicines of extremely sensitive nature. It is said that the pharmaceutical factory in Karachi that issued the fatal pill could have been the victim of the negligence of workers who simply could not distinguish between ingredients and had kept the machines in a poor state of cleanliness. The factory that blew up in Lahore has revealed a number of worrying facts: it was illegally established in a residential area and had been sealed by the authorities a number of times, each time given leave to function through a stay order from the court. It employed illiterate men and women and also indulged in the practice of child labour. Simply no one looked at the quality of the building and probably no one went there to inspect the conditions in which the labour survived.

Conclusion: given its margins of profit, the pharmaceutical industry must be put under closer scrutiny so that those working honestly can be rewarded. Drug testing capacity of the state must be overhauled and bureaucratic complications removed. The manufacturers must be made to employ literate workers for the sake of security of life of poor patients. This could prevent future traumas of the sort experienced in Lahore.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga