Originally Posted by Umer

Hard work in the right direction also matters.
Mere hard work and ability would not earn you CSS allocation.
CSS exam has its own criteria. Your abilities must also have to be aligned to the requirements of CSS. And this absolutely isn't related to the luck factor.
This is all about presence of mind, using your resources properly and managing time in the best way possible.

Originally Posted by samia fakhar

no i think so no need to prepare for 25% even if luck is playing on ur part because this 25% will fetch by ur luck by guessing correct options. well i have also said that we can reduce this tedency by hard work but still there is room for luck matter is CSS. so we can't completely rule out its possibilities

Originally Posted by Bilal Hassan

my dear Samia,
FPSC has eliminated even that thing as you described that there are 20 MCQs and if you don't know the exact answer you can make a tukka and 25 % chances are there that you hit the bull's eye...i categorically deny that opinion of yours with due respect, let me give you reason for that...
if you see the options with Eagle eye you will always find an option NONE OF THESE now what happens is that the correct answer might not be in anyone of the given options but is in none of these option...we just have hunches that tell us that correct option is just among any of the given ones and we seldom choose none of these option, here we fall...so luck factor straightaway eliminated even in MCQs...kudos to FPSC...

Originally Posted by Malmeena Khan

But dear Samia I won't study just to pass CSS rather I will study 100% to increase my knowledge. So that whenever i'm asked about something then I'll be able to reply the relevant answer and will not say that I've not studied that as it was not my choice of luck

Originally Posted by samia fakhar

with due respect, it is evident from modern researches that guessing chance(means luck factor) can't be completely ignored. why? let me explain

Originally Posted by samia fakhar

well i will also include that 25% chances are there for correct TUKKA but there is 75% chances for wrong TUKKA for one correct option. which we can increase by hard wrk but this will be wrong to say that there is no role of luck in CSS.

Originally Posted by mukt

Before you explain, kindly Quote the "Researches" that you are currently talking about, I would like to read them.

Is it not seem that whatever I am saying is the product of good and reasonable mind research? well joke apart, someone borrowed my book I will soon come up with the names of those educationalists who have given the same opinion.


User "X" (incompetent, relying on luck) attempts 50 mcqs (selecting out of 4 options, each MCQ) has how much probability to get the right answers? Now, Compare it with user "Y" who knows 40 MCQs (competent, relying on hard work, smart work & NOT luck) and goes for INTELLIGENT guesses for the remaining 10, now compare the marks.. Obviously, the later will have the benefit.. It is not a "JUST PASS THE PAPER" exam, it's a COMPETITIVE exam, which will eliminate the former student and the later will be selected even though if X is pass.


Good analysis and I really enjoyed
Well, I will request you to go through all my comments. I am not saying that it is LUCK which will decide my fate 100% as I have mentioned that if there is 25% probability of go for correct guess, there is also 75% chance to go for wrong guess. it will be hard work and correct knowledge which will increase my 25% chance to go for correct option or reduce 75% chance to go wrong option..(*)
but we can't root out the possibility of good luck. a person with good luck but with less hard work can be equalized with a person with hard work.
How?
1) There is difference between wild guesses and intelligent guess. In wild guess we do not have any idea and we have to go for one option out of four (means 25% room for my luck). On the other hand intelligent guesses may even prove more dengerous than wild guesses and vice versa. e.g in answer of one MCQ i know that (a) is not correct and (d) is also not correct. on the basis of my knowledge and intelligent guess i will either select (b) or (c). now 50% to go for wrong option and the same 50% chance to go for correct option. Here the quota for LUCK has been increased to 50% from 25%.
2) There is no prescribe course for MCQs at least. May be you have gone through 50 concepts and among them 20 appear in paper and I have gone through 200 concepts but examiner starts asking from 201 or 202. Again u are lucky enough. No doubt my chance of coverage of MCQs is more than ur chance but again LUCK can play its part.
3) The given options are too interrelated which can confuse the aspirant.e.g for a single MCQ u go for option (a) and i go for option (b). I will have my own reasons to select (b) based on my logics and u will have ur own logics to go for (a). (as the asked questions are most of time based on reasons and logics specially in socail sciences e.g in sociology, journalism etc)


Again, there is no LUCKY and UNLUCKY one as far as CSS EXAMS are concerned. It is due to the poor allocation policy and the ridiculous quota system.

NOTE : I am NOT appearing from Punjab and obviously the current UNJUST quota policy will favor me and all the other students who are not appearing from Punjab however truth must be told even if it's against us!

Originally Posted by samia fakhar

well i will also include that 255 chances are there for correct TUKKA but there is 75% chances for wrong TUKKA for one correct option. which we can increase by hard wrk but this will be wrong to say that there is no role of luck in CSS.

Originally Posted by mukt

Before you explain, kindly Quote the "Researches" that you are currently talking about, I would like to read them.



User "X" (incompetent, relying on luck) attempts 50 mcqs (selecting out of 4 options, each MCQ) has how much probability to get the right answers? Now, Compare it with user "Y" who knows 40 MCQs (competent, relying on hard work, smart work & NOT luck) and goes for INTELLIGENT guesses for the remaining 10, now compare the marks.. Obviously, the later will have the benefit.. It is not a "JUST PASS THE PAPER" exam, it's a COMPETITIVE exam, which will eliminate the former student and the later will be selected even though if X is pass.




Again, there is no LUCKY and UNLUCKY one as far as CSS EXAMS are concerned. It is due to the poor allocation policy and the ridiculous quota system.

NOTE : I am NOT appearing from Punjab and obviously the current UNJUST quota policy will favor me and all the other students who are not appearing from Punjab however truth must be told even if it's against us!

Originally Posted by samia fakhar

with due respect, it is evident from modern researches that guessing chance(means luck factor) can't be completely ignored. why? let me explain
1)none of these or all of above they are the options of a MCQ means they both have the probability to be correct on guesses on 25% quota. they both have the same weightage to be correct as other three options have. so none of these do not mean that ur wild guess can not be correct
2) none of these and all of above, they both options are very technical and can only be apply if it makes sense..
3) in all of MCQs it is not compulsory that these options such as none of these and all of above is given.



yes yes u are very right. and this is what we all are doing. thousands of people who are apearing in this exam confess that they are working hard. more than hundreds people pass its written means that they worked hard that is why they have passed their exam but allocation is for few lucky people among other hard workers with hard luck.. and this is for what our luck counts

Originally Posted by Bilal Hassan

well samia it is not always the case that the correct option is one among the 3 and not in none of these...rather most of the time they play the trick by giving no correct option so indeed tukka is hardly possible and it plays only 2.5% role not more than that if it does anyway...