The ‘disappeared’


THE Pakistan of today is far removed from the one of yore where there was no forum to which the security establishment could credibly be asked to answer for its excesses. Unsurprisingly, though, despite the gains and somewhat legitimate hope for the process of democracy remaining uninterrupted, problems remain. Currently, amongst the most visible of these is the phenomenon of extrajudicial killings of political activists and others being whisked away, allegedly by a wary intelligence set-up, most prominently in Balochistan. On the surface, it does not seem to matter that the media is focusing on the issue more than it was earlier, that nationalist politicians and international rights groups are raising their voices against human rights violations, or that the US Congress has taken note of the situation and the federal interior minister has declared an amnesty for Baloch leaders. The ‘disappeared’ of Balochistan and the dumped bodies of some of them continue to be a cause for concern.

There are signs, though, that at least some change is under way. On Friday, upon the demand of the chief justice, official quarters produced in court some of those who had gone ‘missing’ — men with names, families and, presumably, rights. The men had been missing since March 1 this year. That they have been produced in court is an encouraging first step, but it must be recognised that this is a first step only. More questions need to be answered. Queried by the judge, the police said they had yet to record their statements as they had been recovered only the night before. Where from? The clutches of the security establishment, perhaps? And what about all the denials issued from time to time by the security establishment concerning its involvement in ‘enforced disappearances’? Pakistan could be forgiven for seeing such instances as the proverbial smoking gun.

Nevertheless, Friday’s events are evidence that the chief justice’s word carries weight and hopefully his demand for a true picture of the law and order situation in Balochistan could lead to credible figures, as well as a mop-up of the security establishment’s methods. NGOs have time and again spoken of how difficult it is to make a complete list of all those who are unaccounted for in Balochistan. Estimates range between a few scores and a few hundreds but unless state officials comply with the chief justice’s orders the actual number of those missing will never be known. There can be little forward movement in redressing Baloch grievances unless first, the facts are brought to light, and second, allegations about the security establishment’s involvement are either proved or disproved.

A sensible message
PRESIDENT Barack Obama’s message to Ali Khamenei, reportedly delivered by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may not clinch a solution to Iran’s nuclear question overnight, but it could help defuse tension and lead to less war talk. Lately, according to American media reports, the Turkish prime minister conveyed to Ayatollah Khamenei President Obama’s message the gist of which made eminent sense: America had no objection to Iran’s nuclear programme if it were geared to peaceful purposes. More specifically, the American president wanted the Iranian spiritual leader to back up his public claim that his country would never pursue a nuclear programme for military purposes. Ayatollah Khamenei is on record as having denounced nuclear weapons several times. In an edict issued on Aug 9, 2005, he said the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear arms was forbidden in Islam. The International Atomic Energy Agency later released the text of the fatwa. Again, terming America as the only “atomic criminal”, the ayatollah told an international disarmament conference in Tehran in April 2010 that atomic weapons were ‘haram’. In fact even the threat to use such weapons, he said, was a violation of human rights. The spiritual guide repeated his views on nuclear arms before Nauroz in February, but evidently the American media didn’t give it the prominence it deserved.

President Obama’s message could have a positive effect on the talks between Iran and the P-5 plus one scheduled to begin on April 13. In view of the differences between Iran and Turkey on Syria and the missile shield, the talks are unlikely to be held in Istanbul. But the venue is less important; what is more important is that the two sides move away from rhetoric and make a serious effort to build upon the propitious atmosphere created by President Obama’s conditional ‘no-objection’ certificate. Already, there is no more tension in the Straits of Hormuz because the two sides have moved away from brinkmanship on an issue that is negotiable. America should note that Iran has multiple centres of power, and, therefore, what Ayatollah Khamenei says can be more important than what President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does or says.


KSM’s military trial
THE US on Wednesday charged Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other suspects of planning and executing the terrorist attacks carried out in America on Sept 11, 2001. Though KSM, as the self-proclaimed mastermind of the atrocity is also known, had been charged for the same crime during the George W. Bush presidency, procedural changes in the US required that he be formally charged again. The events of 9/11 changed the world in multiple ways. The attacks — in which around 3,000 people were killed — unleashed a global US-led war against Islamist militancy and soured relations between the worlds of Islam and the West. Considering the devastating impact of these attacks, it is imperative that those involved be brought to justice.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was nabbed in Rawalpindi in 2003 and shipped off to the US military’s detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, has had an active career in terrorism. The Al Qaeda leader has been linked to several failed and successful terrorist operations around the globe. These include the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing in New York, the failed 1994 Bojinka plot to bomb airliners out of the Philippines as well as the 2002 murder of American journalist Daniel Pearl in Karachi. The 9/11 attacks are, of course, his most notorious ‘achievement’. However, human rights groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, have criticised the fact that KSM and the others will be tried in a military court. They feel the suspects will not get a fair trial in such a court. There is also the fact that KSM’s confession was said to have been obtained through torture. Abominable as the suspects’ actions are, they should not prejudice the fact that the defendants are entitled to a fair trial. Ideally, the suspects should be tried in US civilian courts and prosecuted through the production of evidence not obtained through torture.

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I don't want to be the looser...

Political Extremism

THERE is growing realisation in Pakistan that extremism is becoming a major challenge for the country. Apart from its consequences on matters of law and order and security, which the country has been facing for over a decade, it has also penetrated the public discourse and policy formulation.

Intolerance has a stranglehold on society and the space for free and open dialogue has shrunk, even in intellectual circles. Now parliament is feeling the heat and seems reluctant to prepare a framework for foreign policy in the face of a direct warning from the radicals. The political leadership is trying to adjust to the new phenomena and has failed to formulate a clear policy on the issues of terrorism, extremism and of violent actors across the country.

However, the mere realisation of theissue is not enough; a comprehensive response is unavoidable and can only come through proper understanding of the phenomenon. Not only the religious forces, the establishment and the political elite too are equal shareholders in theproblem, not least because the extremists also seek to push through their agenda using political means.

The causes of extremism are usually a combination of factors, rather than any one single feature, which pushes mainly young people into the embrace of radical groups. Many studies suggest that both distinct and identical factors of extremism may influence certain individuals and groups belonging to various segments of society. It is clear today that politico-ideological factors drive the process of extremism in Pakistan whereas socio-psychological ones facilitate it.

Radical ideologies in Pakistan have not inspired, at least so far, a huge number of individuals who would have otherwise become the basis of a mass revolutionary movement. Individuals radicalised under the influence of various factors join the ranks of whatever radical groups they find operating around them.

Pakistan`s political culture, which is an undemocratic one, is essentially a factor for extremism in society. Although constitutionally and legally all citizens are guaranteed equal political opportunities, the reality is different.

Some social strata find that they have no political rights and no stake in the system. This sense of political deprivationand exclusion is so entrenched in some groups and regions that it has prompted the people to resort to violent means to alleviate their political deprivation. This asymmetric political culture is hence a direct cause of extremism among the deprived. Balochistan, in particular, and the tribal areas, to some extent, are just two examples of that. Various factors have promoted a political culture of conflict and dissension in Pakistan.

The withering away of state-society relations and people`s disillusionment with the state and its institutions provide space to non-state actors, including radical ones, to operate parallel systems of justice, service delivery and security.

The radicals exploit the people`s unfulfilled desires to their advantage and get public support and recruit people. The state-led efforts of Islamisation, or the politics of Islam, have also confused people`s priorities between the Sharia and the constitution. Religious extremists and radicals, whose political ideology pri-oritises Islam and Sharia over Pakistan and its constitution, respectively, have strong appeal for many in the country.

This crises-ridden political culture of Pakistan has played havoc with peaceful and harmonious political and social values among communities. The people largely lack trust in the political leadership and institutions. In this situation, any call for a resort to radical means carries greater attraction. Such a scenario provides fertile ground for radicalism to flourish.

Oppression, lack of justice and politico-economic inequalities are strong contributing factors towards extremism and militancy in the country.

Pakistani state and society have failed to address various forms of inequality which have fuelled alienation and resentment among those on the margins of society.

Repeated demands for expeditious justice and widespread complaints about the decay in the judicial system contributed to circumstances where the government capitulated to the Taliban`s demand for the Nizam-i-Adl Regulation in Swat. The armed campaign by the Taliban also played a role.

Victims of chronic inequality economic, social, political, legal or in anyother form eventually start viewing the sociopolitical, economic and legal systems as flawed and as favouring one section of society over other sections. It makes them think about rebelling against the system, at times in the form of militancy. Peaceful societies are peaceful largely because they have achieved political, legal and civic equality.

A sense of humiliation, political grievances and breakdown of the existing culture or political structures are behind extremism in developing countries including Pakistan. Radicalism and terrorism are strategic choices of radicals and terrorists to correct perceived grievances or injustices. Radicalism use of force for political ends is a way to compensate for powerlessness, exclusion, alienation and despair. It improves the status of radicals. The ingredients of such status are power, privilege and prestige.

By default, design or misplaced intentions, the ruling political leadership inPakistan has led the nation on Islamist trajectories. The politics of Islamisation has also supported the larger religious discourse that demands enforcement of the Sharia advocated by militant groups as an ideological tactic to get sup-port for their political goals.

With regard to their concern in promoting Islamic nationalism, Pakistani society has undoubtedly become more conservative in terms of public practice of social and cultural mores over the last three decades. Although this societal shift presaged growing intolerance of any but the strictest interpretations of religion as practised by a particular sect, it did not, for the most part, manifest itself in violence.

The political leadership has always made lofty claims of national progress and political parties have promised to take the nation to unparalleled heights if voted in. But once elected they have forgotten the promises.

It has been the same story with military dictators ruling the country. They too have not been averse to promising the people the moon, only to prolong their rule. The people have always been let down. This has bred a perception of exclusion and deprivation among certain groups. The frustration caused by that perception has apparently contributed to extremism in Pakistan. •

The writer is editor quarterly research journal Conflict and Peace Studies.

mamirrana@yahoo.com

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

DAWN 25-04-12
Islands of stability
THERE is ferment in the Muslim world as the people seek a more democratic dispensation.

There is also a dangerous turbulence. Ostensibly, the turbulence flows from a revolt against dictators who have kowtowed to the West to remain in power and whose corrupt regimes have accumulated ill-gotten gains at the cost of the people.

Theoretically, all the protesters were united in seeking to overthrow dictatorships and to create governing structures responsive to the needs, economic and political, of all people. In practice it is a turbulence that has brought to the fore the divide between the extreme Islamists and the moderate interpreters of Islam, divisions among sects in Islam, the divide between Muslim majorities and minorities and that among variousethnic groups and various tribes.

In Egypt, there is a divide between the Islamists and the liberals, between the Muslims and the Copts and perhaps most importantly between the military and the people. Themilitary`s efforts at manipulation continue and make uncertain the prospect of presidential elections in May.

In Syria, the divide is between the minority Alawite sect and the majority Sunnis, with the orthodox Shia falling somewhere in between. Syria may overthrow Bashar al-Assad but it is not at all clear that democracy for all Syrians will come about. In both countries, the economic situation is deteriorating.

In Iraq, there is the divide between the Shia majority and the Sunnis who had traditionally wielded power and between the Arab majority and the Kurdish minority whose aspirations for independence may appear closer to realisation. However, this would threaten to tear apart the state structures of the entire area including Turkey, Iran and Syria all with substantial Kurdish minorities.

In Jordan, concessions by the ruling family have ensured relative peace but this remains threatened as much by internal tribal and ethnic fissures as bythe ripple effect of the ongoing IsraelPalestine conflict.

In Yemen, the overthrowing of a dictator has not resolved the tribal divides.

Good leadership under President Hadi may succeed in resolving this issue by power-sharing arrangements but the terrorists of Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) will make this difficult as will the army which will be needed to fight the group.

In Libya, tribal and territorial divisions Benghazi vs Tripoli and the absence of administrative structures has made the success of the Libyan revolution problematic. In each of these countries there is both revulsion against the West and the hope that the West will somehow help realise the democratic aspirations of the people.

One could go on to detail the problems in other parts of the Muslim world but one hopes the point has already been made that this is a familiar litany because in Pakistan, the second mostpopulous country of the Muslim world and its sole nuclear-weapon country, we have all and more of the problems that afflict the Muslim world.

Everyday we lose dozens of people because of sectarian and ethnic strife.

Everyday some Baloch say their grievances cannot be resolved within a united Pakistan. Everyday incidents such as the Bannu jailbreak show that the terrorists, both foreign and local, are becoming more powerful. Every other day we see stories of discrimination against minorities and of forced conversions. Every other day we see evidence of the collapse of the public-sector organisations that swallow the lifeblood of the economy. Everyday we see evidence that we remain at odds with our western neighbour and while good steps are being taken in terms of our eastern neighbour we still seem to allow our policies to be determined by illusory threat perceptions and unworthy and unrealisable ambitions.

Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, lyingon the periphery of the heartland of the Muslim world, appear to be islands of stability in the stormy sea that is the Muslim world. There we have seen relative stability come after wise political leadership and good governance has brought under control the various evils that afflict the other parts of the Muslim world.

Malaysia`s ethnic harmony between the indigenous Malay and the Chinese and Indian minorities came after years of able leadership and affirmative actions, which brought the Malays closer to par with their Chinese and Indian counterparts. Indonesia, after years of fruitless efforts, under successive military-supported dictators, to expand its territorial limits eventually not only gave up such ambitions, but even ceded part of the territory it held and granted greater autonomy to other areas. It could then reduce the influence of the military in politics and get on with the job of exploiting its rich natural resources tousher in an era of prosperity and economic well-being for the people.

Are there lessons to be learnt from the experience of these countries? Clearly, the chief lesson is that we must have stable and able leadership which even while looking after its own interests framespolicies, both domestic and foreign, to serve the domestic agenda of promoting the economic well-being of its people and eliminating the causes of ethnic and sectarian strife.

But to my mind the even more important lesson is that the administrative structure must be improved and depoliticised. We started with an administrative structure that was the envy of countries like Malaysia. It was recruited on merit.

Today, with notable exceptions, posts in the bureaucracy have become gifts that the politicians dole out to their favourites or sell to the highest bidder.

Today, no conscientious police officer dare arrest even a killer without checking his political connections.

How do we change this dismal picture? How do we become a country that the Economist once called the `model for economic development in the Third World?` My modest suggestions will follow in another column.• The writer is a former foreign secretarp

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I don't want to be the looser...

27-04-2012
Abdullah Haroon: politics & beyond
HAJI Abdullah Haroon, whose death anniversary falls on April 27, was by all accounts an extremely compelling personality.

He was multifaceted, his role multidimensional.

A businessman, a social worker, a philanthropist, an organiser, a builder of institutions and a political leader he was all that at once. He believed in liberal values such as initiative, enterprise, hard work and competition, besides moral uprightness.

Although he had his measure of trial and tribulation over the years, he was a success in whatever he did.

Consider, in brief, what all he accomplished. In terms of his own financial standing, he traversed the path from rags to riches without ever resorting to unfair means or gimmicks. He started out as an orphaned messenger and general help boy at age 14, and by 37 he was the `sugar king`. A person with a deep social conscience, he used his wealth to promote worthy causes.

Worthy of note was his role in the social development sector. Haji Haroon founded or helped organise a number of institutions including the Jamia Islamia Yatim Khana (1923), the Karachi Muslim Gymkhana (1927), the Hajjani Hanifabai Memon Girls School, the Sind Muslim League Employment Bureau (1939), the Wakt alal-Aulad Trust (1940), the Sukkur Relief Fund (1940) and a charitable trust (1941).

He was also actively involved, as president or as an executive committee member, with the Karachi Club, the Karachi Port Haj Committee, the Quetta Salvage Advisory Committee and the All India Memon Conference.

His generous contributions included among its beneficiaries the Angora (Ankara) Fund (1919-1920s), the Symrna Fund (1920s), the Palestine Relief Fund (1930s), the BhujFamine Fund as well as scores of other charities and organisations involved in promoting education, health and religion. The sums he contributed are anybody`s guess but must have run into millions, particularly in terms of current prices.

This remarkable gentleman`s interest in the awakening and emancipation ofthe masses led him to enter public life in 1913, once he had built for himself a solid financial base because, like Mohammad Ali Jinnah, he did not want to make a profession out of politics.

This penchant led him to involve himself, at one time or another, with the major political organisations in the country: the Indian National Congress, the All India Khilafat Committee (1919-29), the Sind Provincial Political Conference (1920-30s), the All Parties Conference (1928), the All Parties Muslim Conference (1930-34), the Azad Sind Conference (1930), and the All-India Muslim League (AIML).

Besides these, he was the president of several all-India conferences and bodies the All-India Central Khilafat Committee (1928), the AllIndia Tanzim Conference (1930), the All-India Postal and RMS Union (1931), the All-India Memon Conference (1935), the All-India Muslim Conference (1935) and AllIndia Seerat Conference (1942).

From 1925 onwards, he became active in the movement for the separation of Sindh from Bombay and lobbied for this at all-India moots.

Thus, he proposed a resolution on this at the Leaders` Conference at New Delhi and the AIML, both in 1926. He was a member of the Brayne Conference on Sind (1932), the Sind Delimitation Committee (1935), the Admi-nistration Committee (1933) and was the chairman of the Reception Committee of the Sind Azad Conference, Second Session (1934).

However, his role in the AIML from 1937 onwards surpassed everything else he did in the political field. That year, he undertook the task of organising the League in the province.

In 1938, he organised the First Sind Provincial Muslim League Conference at Karachi, with himself as the chairman of the Reception Committee. In 1939, he was elected president of the Sind Provincial Muslim League, and became the chairman of the AIML Foreign SubCommittee.

In 1940, Haji Haroon was nominated a member of the AIML Working Committee and in 1941 he presided over the Punjab Muslim Students Conference at Lyallpur. And in the same year he secured the Manzilgah Mosque in Sukkur on behalf of the Muslim League while he was its president.

Among all these achievements, however, the First Provincial Muslim League Conference in October 1938 represented his most important contribution in channelling the course of IndoMuslim politics.

Though a provincial moot, it was not only presided over by Mr Jinnah, but has as participants a number of Muslim leaders a virtual who`s who of Muslim India at the time: the premiers of Bengal and the Punjab, Nawabzada Liaquat Ali Khan, Maulana Shaukat Ali, Begum Mohammed Ali, the Raja of Mahmudabad, Maulana Jamal Mian of Farangi Mahal, Syed Ghulam Bhik Nairang, Maulana Abdul Hamid Badayuni and Mushtaq Ahmed Gurmani amongst others.

The resolution adopted at this conference was of prime significance. Formulated by Haji Haroon, the resolution spelled out the concept of separate Muslim nationhood not merely in political and imme-diate terms but on an intellectual plane, spelling out the basics and basis of that nationhood.

This was the first time that Hindus and Muslims were formally pronounced two distinct nations, and `political selfdetermination` for them was demanded.

The resolution expressed `emphatic disapproval` of the federation scheme, and urged the British government to refrain from enforcing it.

In consequence, the AIML at its Patna session in December 1938 authorised the president to explore a suitable alternative to the India Act of 1935.

Subsequently, a committee was appointed on March 26, 1939, to examine various draft schemes on the constitutional problem, which finally eventuated in the formulation and adoption of the Lahore Resolution on March 23, 1940. In perspective, this resolution initiated a trend which crystallised in the Lahore Resolution. In this sense, that resolution broke new ground; and Haji Haroon, its formulator, became a trendsetter at a critical moment in modern Muslim India`s political development.• The writer is an HEC Distinguished National Professor, has recently co
smujahid107@hotmail.com)

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I don't want to be the looser...

FOR a space of nearly 48 hours, everything appeared to be going as well as possible under the circumstances. The PPP had accepted the Supreme Court verdict, Yousuf Raza Gilani had stepped down and a candidate for the role had been announced.

There were no large-scale protests and matters were proceeding in line with the constitution and parliamentary procedure. But this is Pakistan, and another day without more political upheaval was perhaps too much to ask for.

Makhdoom Shahabuddin may not have been the wisest choice for prime minister, given that he had been linked to the ongoing ephedrine case. But it is impossible not to raise eyebrows at the timing of his arrest warrant, especially since his name was first raised in connection with the scandal a couple of months ago.

The move has raised fresh tensions in Islamabad, with the ruling party speculating that extra-constitutional forces were unable to stomach the smooth transition that was under way. But while latenight developments might change the picture, as things stand at the moment the PPP is sticking to the right plan of following parliamentary procedure and avoiding confrontation. At the same time it is resisting the opposition demand for early polls. And that makes the FML-N`s moves crucial as well. So far the largest opposition party has played its part inrespecting and strengthening the parliamentary process by fielding its own candidate despite the fact that getting him elected will be nearly impossible given the configuration of the National Assembly.

The PPP`s acceptance of the verdict and the PMLN`s decision to challenge the coalition within parliament are promising signs of political maturity.

At least on the face of it, then, the major political players seem to be working within, and therefore reinforcing, the system.

But given the uncanny timing of yesterday`s developments, we cannot rule out the possibility that there are forces working behind the scenes to prevent Pakistan`s fledgling democracy from weathering the current crisis. Despite its obvious flaws, particularly on the governance front, the endurance of the postMusharraf system has been an achievement in itself. To keep it going a new prime minister needs to be elected as soon as possible, following which the ruling coalition and the opposition should work together to appoint a chief election commissioner and can negotiate an interim set-up and the timing of elections. For all of this to fall into place, today is a critical day. It will require political leaders to keep their wits about them, continue to avoid confrontation with each other and with other institutions, and keep their eyes on the real prize preserving Pakistan`s hard-won democracy.

Balochistan unrest

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Separatists and nationalists, secular political party workers, settlers, Hazaras, policemen, civilians killed by landmines and IEDs — is anyone safe in Balochistan anymore? The last few days and weeks have seen the front pages of newspapers filled with stories of all shades of violence in the province, whether sectarian, Islamist, political or ethnic. The Awami National Party has been the latest victim, but the day before the Kuchlak blast saw the discovery of the dead bodies of six miners — likely settlers from Swat — and dozens of Hazaras have been killed this year. Alongside these stories have been running reports of the Supreme Court’s persistent efforts to get security forces to produce missing people in court and restore law and order.

But the SC has done about as much as it can, and its limited success so far points to the real roadblocks standing in the way of peace in Balochistan: the issue of missing persons requires a political solution spearheaded by a committed federal government and accompanied by a change in the mindset of security agencies. Underpinning all of this will have to be a genuine resolve to address the concerns of Baloch nationalists and even separatists; measures like Aghaz-i-Huqooq-i-Balochistan are important, but will not be enough. Prime Minister Gilani’s government had made feeble attempts to bring Baloch leaders to the negotiating table, and the new prime minister has made a similar effort through his call for talks in Quetta yesterday. But nothing has come out of such rhetoric in the past, and there will be no movement until capable interlocutors with contacts and respect among Baloch leaders are given a concrete mandate to launch talks in a meaningful way, through back channels if necessary. That would also provide a basis to ask security agencies to rein in their zeal to ‘disappear’ people with real and imagined links to separatist activities.

When it comes to the broader law and order problem, however, the provincial government has a larger role to play, and is failing miserably. It is true that the Raisani government has limited room to manoeuvre; despite, for example, repeated declarations that the Frontier Corps should report to the provincial administration, most recently at the end of May, the organisation is widely perceived to operate outside civilian control. But policing is also inadequate, failing to prevent the kidnappings and killings of settlers and Hazaras, and provincial lawmakers are perceived as being corrupt and more concerned with personal feuds than the province’s law-and-order and development problems. Along with the federal government, they continue to let the people of Balochistan down.

Moody’s downgrade

Sunday, July 15, 2012

THE downgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign creditworthiness was neither unexpected, nor will it affect the country’s economic fortunes (or rather misfortunes?) At worst, it may have a psychological impact on the markets, which are already edgy on account of the same reasons that have led Moody’s to demote Pakistan’s bond ratings. The country’s economic outlook remains negative, and it is unlikely to change in the short to medium term unless we put our house in order.
The key drivers debilitating the country’s economy include its eroding capacity to finance its budget owing to its inability to raise domestic tax revenues or to repay its foreign loans because of drying foreign official and private inflows and a rising trade deficit.

Needless to say that its political problems are keeping the coalition government’s focus away from taking tough policy decisions to improve business confidence and addressing structural weaknesses, such as addressing growing energy shortages and increasing domestic revenues. The downgrade of sovereign creditworthiness should sound a warning to the country’s policymakers. The government has already defaulted on its (domestic) sovereign obligations to the IPPs only a few weeks ago.
And the possibility of Pakistan defaulting on its foreign debt repayments over the next couple of years cannot be ruled out with the large $6.3bn in principal and interest falling due because of the IMF between 2013 and 2015. With foreign private capital moving into safer assets due to the eurozone debt crisis, Islamabad can avoid a repeat of the 2008 crisis only with the help of official bilateral and multilateral creditors and donors like the IMF and the World Bank. While the US has promised to resume disbursement of suspended Coalition Support Funds of $1.2bn following the reopening of Nato supply routes, that is not enough to resolve our medium- to long-term balance of payment woes. The government will ultimately have to go to the IMF for another loan. This time it may have to accept even tougher conditions for the Fund’s help. And those conditions will not be easy to implement in the absence of a stable domestic political environment.

Divisions in Asean

Sunday, July 15, 2012

THE dispute over some resource-rich islands in the South China Sea is assuming menacing proportions, with the just concluded Asean summit failing to issue a joint communiqué that could signal a united stand on the issue. Four Asean members — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — resist China’s claims to the islands, known as Scarborough Shoal, but do not find support among other Asean members. Apparently the eight other members resisted the demand by the Philippines and Vietnam that the joint communiqué contain a reference to the dispute with China. This split on the Shoal is in direct contrast to the unanimity Asean members showed a few days earlier by adopting a common code of conduct on shipping and other maritime issues. Since its foundation by five countries in 1967, Asean membership has grown to 10 because of the success of the common economic policies the members have followed. Yet the Shoal issue has prevented the grouping for the first time in its 45-year history from issuing a joint communiqué.

Behind the regional dispute lurks the presence of America and China in the Asia-Pacific region. Even though the two countries continue to remain committed to a policy of friendship, serious misgivings exist on both sides, with Beijing accusing Congress of erecting barriers to Chinese imports and American congressional leaders seeing a threat to US interests in China’s growing military muscle. However, meeting on the sidelines of the Asean summit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jeichi talked friendship and promised to work together. Publicly, America has pledged not to take sides in the Shoal dispute, but China has often seen American policies as subtle moves designed to check Beijing’s influence in the region. How things go in the Asia-Pacific region will basically by decided by these two powers.

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Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Improving ties

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

In an interview with an Indian news channel a day after presenting his credentials to the Indian president, Salman Bashir, the new high commissioner to India, has said that “the atmospherics have witnessed a sea change” in the relationship between Pakistan and India. Mr Bashir may well be right and in a relationship as fraught and contentious as the one between the two South Asian neighbours ‘atmospherics’ are nothing to be scoffed at. However, there is a sense that rather than Mr Bashir’s upbeat assessment, the relationship is drifting again. Trade negotiations have been bogged down in minutiae, a more liberal visa regime has seemingly been stalled and there’s next to nothing to show on the fiendishly more difficult fronts: Kashmir, Siachen and terrorism.

Perhaps what can reinvigorate the push for normalisation of ties between India and Pakistan is the much talked about but never quite near enough visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Pakistan. Intransigence and stubbornness of the security and foreign-policy establishments on both sides is almost a given, so it comes down to finding someone who can rise about the calcified and ossified positions of old and drag ties forward. Throughout his tenure as prime minister, Mr Singh has appeared to be the man who could possibly make it happen — but time is running out. Weakened domestically and unable to find a partner in Pakistan who is willing to meet him half way, the space for Prime Minister Singh to manoeuvre on Pakistan has certainly diminished a great deal. Here on the Pakistani side, the demand for ‘progress on all fronts’ has been wielded as a soft veto by the army-led security establishment on improving trade and visa relations. The thought behind that may well be that when Pakistan first signalled its intention to move ahead on certain subjects, it hoped that India would reciprocate by offering talks and the hope of stepping back from rigid Indian positions on other subjects. But then the Indian side appeared to want to keep the focus of the talks narrow and Pakistan’s interest diminished.

Certainly, from the Indian side, the shadow of the Mumbai attacks still lingers and a significant gesture from Pakistan — expediting the trial of the suspects here perhaps — is yet to come. The weight of history means that both sides have a thousand and one reasons to not genuinely seek a full peace with one another. So officials like Prime Minister Singh, so obviously and so genuinely interested in peace with Pakistan, do not come about often. He should follow his instinct. Roll the dice: visit Pakistan. Of such gestures is history sometimes made.

Lobbying and image

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Fourteen telephone calls and 15 meetings: this is part of the six months of activity an American lobbying firm did for Pakistan. The firm is paid $75,000 a month to advance Pakistan’s cause and stem the downhill slide of its image. As a report by our diplomatic correspondent points out, despite the nearly one million dollars given annually to the firm, Pakistan’s image has earned it few admirers. There is a long list of reasons why the American public has developed the kind of view it has about this country. Islamabad’s role in the war on terror, the post-Salala confrontation and the army’s covert relationship with the Haqqani militia have merely contributed to an image that has been negative for quite some time because of Pakistan’s domestic scene bordering on anarchy. It is not a question of an incident here and there; it is decades of political chaos and extremist violence which have given Pakistan the stamp of an abnormal country.

A country’s image is not created overnight, nor can lobbyists succeed in their job when the news emanating from the country shows perpetual chaos, a constant perversion of constitutional and legal processes, sectarian violence, unabashed persecution of women and minorities, massive financial scams, a horrendous level of xenophobic violence that deters foreign tourists and investment, the purported misuse and waste of foreign aid, and above all, a corrupt elite that is perceived to be indifferent to national interests. In such a scenario, lobbyists can do little to earn their keep. A country’s image is built at home, not abroad, for it stems from the kind of message a nation gives to the world by collective behaviour and by its commitment to principles universally shared. The lobbying firm may win over a couple of congressmen or journalists willing to listen, but this will be a poor substitute for what the people of Pakistan themselves and their leaders can and should do to reverse the image. A stable, democratic and peaceful Pakistan will in itself constitute an image that would hardly need lobbying.

Wedding rush

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

It's wedding season in Mirpur and love has only a little to do with it. The town in Pakistan-administered Kashmir best known for its migrant population in the UK is racing against the clock to beat a deadline for changes in British immigration laws. As reported in this paper, people rushed to book places in crash courses in English while immigration consultants in the town also saw brisk business in the run-up to the July 6 deadline, after which the new laws were to take effect. Needless to say, those in the wedding industry were also quite busy, as couples tied the knot in droves. The reason for these speedy weddings and associated frenzied activity is that as per the new rules, the minimum income ceiling has been raised for Britons wishing to bring foreign spouses to the UK, while foreign nationals wishing to marry British partners will also be required to pass an English proficiency test. The rush to secure a coveted British visa has also reportedly caused delays at the British High Commission in Islamabad.

The hasty weddings show how globalised the world has become, when changes in British laws can have such an impact thousands of miles away in Mirpur, which has seen many locals settled in Britain return to invest and marry in their ancestral hometown. This particular development also illustrates the strength of global networks and how people use these for upward mobility. While people in developing countries such as Pakistan have always sought greener pastures in the First World, the current dismal economic and law and order situation in this country has only strengthened people’s urge to flee. Unfortunately, the sad fact is that many Pakistanis will grab the first opportunity to settle abroad should it become available, both through legal means and otherwise. That is a sobering thought.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Economic picture

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

As the numbers start trickling in on last year’s economic and fiscal performance, the picture appears to get grimmer. Foreign direct investment fell by 50 per cent last year to just $800m, down from $5.4bn in 2007-08. Meanwhile, the budget deficit has clocked in at over eight per cent of GDP on the back of lower-than-expected revenues and higher-than-projected expenditures. And yet, what is becoming clearer about the Pakistani economy is that rather than stark black and white there are many shades of grey, with the doomsday scenarios giving way to a more nuanced understanding of where the economy and the state of finances stand. To be sure, the picture is anything but bright. An outsize budget deficit is a significant problem but the absolute numbers can obscure the real threat. The bigger problem is that sources of inflows for the government are drying up and the cost of borrowing is going up. Rather than having a range of competitive avenues from which to borrow, focusing on high-cost national saving schemes, private-bank borrowing and lending from the State Bank has effectively mortgaged the future. Even the borrowing could have been justified if the money were spent on addressing deep problems in the power, water and infrastructure sectors. But that of course is not happening.

Still, the economy appears to be limping forward, functioning on seemingly parallel tracks. While the public sector is weighing down the system, the private economy is pushing ahead, fuelled by remittances, growth in the livestock sector and the service sector in the urban areas — many parts of which are outside the formal economy. The real question is when the mismanagement of the public economy will start to drag down the private, informal economy, triggering perhaps the meltdown that has been much talked about but thankfully deferred time and again the last few years. The answer, unfortunately, is that no one is really sure. While the bottom hasn’t fallen off from the overall economy yet, it still could. Idiot-proof as the overall economy may increasingly be seen as, there is no good substitute for sound economic and fiscal policies.

Politics and polio

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Here's a suggestion for Pakistani politicians. For just a couple of days, forget the usual political rhetoric. Take a break from bashing each other or America, railing against a clash of institutions, or making predictions about political developments over the next few months. Instead, focus on a problem that is of real and immediate relevance to ordinary Pakistanis: the serious threats to the campaign for the eradication of polio. Tuesday’s shooting in Karachi of a UN doctor working on polio immunisation followed the refusal over the last couple of days of the Taliban and some tribal leaders to allow polio vaccinations in parts of Fata, where the problem is most acute. If the immunisation campaign that ends today is extended by a few days, and if all major political parties focus on the issue, with the JI, the JUI and the PTI joining hands with the PML-N and the ruling coalition, there is a decent chance that something will give. This will not do away with opposition to polio vaccination overnight. But it should give health workers, local officials and supportive clerics more ammunition to negotiate with those who are resisting, and it might encourage parents to take risks to get their children immunised. At the very least it will demonstrate that our politicians are concerned with more than just politics.

The mistrust of polio immunisation should not be dismissed as being entirely ignorant or unjustified. Dr Shakeel Afridi and the CIA did no favours to the project when they used a fake vaccination programme to try to track down Osama bin Laden. Other elements of the US-Pakistan relationship, particularly drone attacks, are being positioned as reasons to block the state-run campaign. None of this is helped by long-held suspicions among some communities that polio vaccination is un-Islamic or designed to weaken Muslims. In this scenario, what is needed is high-profile messaging that can counter deeply ingrained perceptions.

Given the threat to the lives of campaign workers, the problem is also one of the state’s failure to protect them and, in Fata, of it no longer having control of chunks of territory. But the containment of polio cannot wait for better policing or the restoration of the state’s writ in the tribal areas. In the immediate term, what could help is rhetoric that approves of vaccination and positions the issue as one that should not be held hostage to politics and American policies. But it will go unnoticed as long as it isn’t coming from the top of the food chain. At this point, it is worth giving persuasion from the highest levels a try.

Cricket in India

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

The Indian cricket board’s announcement that it has invited the Pakistan team for a tour at the end of the year will no doubt be greeted with joy by cricket buffs. This will be the first such tour in five years, though it still needs the approval of both governments. Cricketing ties between Pakistan and India were suspended after the 2008 Mumbai incident and the two sides have only met in international tournaments since 2007, most notably at the World Cup thriller in Mohali last year.
Pakistan has also not been able to host international matches on home turf since the 2009 terrorist attack targeting the Sri Lankan team in Lahore. Not only was the assault a death knell for international cricket in this country, it also cost Pakistan its position as one of the co-hosts of the 2011 World Cup. Earlier, the country’s reputation as an international cricketing venue took a hit when a bomb went off in Karachi in 2002 close to where the New Zealand team was staying.

The security concerns of foreign teams are justified and local authorities must convince the world that Pakistan is a safe place to play. However, the security situation is improving and the threat of violence should not be used as an excuse to deprive local fans of international cricket on home turf. Since the 2009 attack, Pakistan has played its home games in third countries. In the India-Pakistan context, the proposed tour will be an excellent confidence-building measure. Hopefully it will pave the way for regular cricketing ties between the two countries, as few rivalries in cricket generate as much excitement as Pakistan vs India. It is also hoped the tour can open the door for India and other foreign teams to resume playing matches on Pakistani soil.

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga

Afghan reconciliation

July 19th, 2012

According to the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan, Afghan reconciliation — and Pakistan’s support for it — will be the most important item on the agenda for Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf’s visit to Kabul today. This follows earlier statements from President Hamid Karzai asking for Islamabad’s help for talks with the Taliban. But the reality of what Pakistan can do lies somewhere between international perceptions that it could make major contributions to peace in Afghanistan if only it wanted to and the very limited, logistical role Islamabad played in facilitating the Taliban’s passage to Qatar for talks with the Americans.

It’s true that some Taliban leaders, their families and livelihoods are in Pakistan, and that security agencies have contacts with them. Other operatives are in Pakistani jails and have not been handed over despite Kabul’s requests. Pakistan is also holding itself back because of paranoia about its interests in the region and the lack of a clear centre of power when it comes to devising foreign policy. But there are also some real constraints on its ability to facilitate talks: its control over the Taliban is not as extensive as is portrayed by the Americans and the Afghans; the Taliban have repeatedly claimed they will not talk to the Karzai government; the US government’s election-year calculations and internal disagreements make it difficult for Washington to maintain a successful peace process with the Taliban; and the Taliban themselves are fragmented over whether and with whom talks should take place.

In this complex scenario, one thing Pakistan can do is begin to match its claims and demands with what it can actually deliver. If it wants a seat at the table and have the international community address its concerns about Afghanistan’s future, it will have to deliver more than just logistical support. It will need to demonstrate at least a genuine effort to try to persuade the Taliban it does have contacts with to talk to the Afghan government and the US, and turning over prisoners could be a first step. The Taliban have recently sent public signals that they might be ready to talk to the Americans again, and have even sent an envoy to the Kyoto conference attended by Afghan government officials. So there may be an opportunity now for Pakistan to get involved in shaping the region’s future and counter the international perception that it is an impediment to peace. It doesn’t have the degree of power projected by the West and Afghanistan, and there are limits to what it can do. But that is no excuse not to do whatever it can.

Transporting voters

July 19th, 2012

The Election Commission of Pakistan has decided to provide transportation to voters during a by-election in Multan scheduled for today. This is apparently a first in the country’s history and as an EC official told this paper, the commission plans to provide transportation to all voters in the upcoming general elections. The apparent reason behind this decision is that the EC has barred candidates from themselves providing transport facilities to voters. While an independent, proactive Election Commission is essential for the success of the democratic project in Pakistan, it must be kept in mind that electoral reforms must be realistic and achievable. What is more, the EC needs to prioritise reforms, perhaps starting with solutions that could eliminate electoral malpractices.

Many questions arise about the EC’s above-mentioned move. For instance, will providing conveyance to every voter who wants to vote on election day be logistically possible, considering the hundreds of national and provincial assembly seats that are up for grabs? This is, by all estimates, a Herculean proposition. Also, if the EC is preventing candidates from transporting voters, especially in the country’s remote areas, does this not amount to disenfranchising voters? Allegations of favouritism may also crop up if one candidate’s supporters are given access to transport while those of another are denied the privilege. Perhaps the EC should try something more manageable, such as increasing the number of polling stations in each constituency. Though the move announced may be well-intentioned, what is actually needed is a clearer, more transparent electoral system that not only minimises the chance of fraud but also ensures that all voters have equal access to polling stations and that they are free to exercise their right to adult franchise without the fear of duress or violence. Campaign finance reform is another area that needs careful attention, keeping in mind the realities on the ground. Pakistan’s electoral history is replete with incidents that make a solid case for top-down reform. But changes must be incremental. Anything drastic, such as the Election Commission getting into the business of transporting voters, must be seriously reviewed for its practicality.

Road safety

July 19th, 2012

It is a measure of how callous Pakistani society has become that we can look upon the face of preventable tragedy but not be moved enough to do anything about it. Consider the accident that occurred near Rawalpindi on Tuesday, when a bus carrying more than 50 passengers plunged into a ravine. Reportedly, whilst trying to negotiate a sharp turn the driver shouted that he had lost control of the vehicle and passengers should jump out if they could. While the driver was injured, the nine people killed included one of his sons; dozens were injured.

Such tragedies occur frequently but few reflect on where the blame lies. In some cases, the drivers are held responsible by other people, even if not the law. But should not equal, if not more, censure be directed towards a state that has few regulations to ensure the fitness of vehicles and even less the will to enforce them? As in so many other areas in Pakistan, the role of oversight that ought to be played by the state is left to an individual, such as the driver or owner of a vehicle. Others that may be placed at risk must rely on good luck. It is time the state owned up to its responsibility in terms of road safety. This includes making sure that vehicles can pass a road-worthiness test, drivers are licensed and aware of the traffic rules, and public transport is regulated in a much more comprehensive fashion. Issues such as overcrowding or obviously unfit vehicles are so common that they rarely attract attention. Yet brought under control they must be, for they seriously compromise public safety. In the pockets where the state has exerted the will to enforce the law, such as in certain cities and on some highways, the situation has improved. Why can the same techniques not be expanded to cover the whole country?

__________________
Kon Kehta hy k Main Gum-naam ho jaon ga
Main tu aik Baab hn Tareekh mein Likha jaon ga